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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Better than decent. Half a foot in a winter storm...I take it over 4x2" snows any day of the week. Great run. Hate it had to end, but good run.
  2. Carvers Gap
    This winter was substantially better IMBY when compared to last year....not even close. We had school systems closed for a solid week and deservedly so.
  3. Carvers Gap
  4. Carvers Gap
    The wind is absolutely howling...non stop. Strong line of storms just to the west of TRI. Been a while since the wind has ripped like this IMBY.
  5. Carvers Gap
    And one more which is pretty cool...just move the slide: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_monthly/
  6. Carvers Gap
    https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/tables/monthly.html
  7. Carvers Gap
    When the black helicopters show up, winter is over........
  8. Carvers Gap
    Elk, metal snowman, wooly worm, and now....... Jupiter. Fun read. Interesting stuff.
  9. Carvers Gap
    We'll see, man. You may be right, but nobody knows the future. I have seen warm springs flip cold far too many times. Agree on next winter.....but again, sometimes winters buck seasonal analogs. We are overdue a snowless winter - forum wide. Those do happen. But I think we possibly see a decent winter again next winter. I think we are in a -NAO cycle, and that will help. With the PDO being a decadal oscillation, it doesn't surprise me that it didn't flip. I do think we are due to see it come up for air at some point. Hopefully that times w/ next winter, though there is no evidence of that at this point. The Nina is showing hints of being centered over the dateline. Not a great signal at this point, but a LONG way to go. My money is on an early winter as well w/ maybe some NAO help and an SSW which we would need for the second half of winter. All of that is assuming the ENSO state. A few years ago, they got the ENSO wrong(for winter) w/ the lead time being June of the same year....a single, volcanic eruption could change everything or even something we haven't thought of yet.
  10. Carvers Gap
    I will say this, one can make a pretty decent seasonal forecast for this area by using these tools -> ENSO state(nada is not good, but weak Nino or Nina will work), PDO, recent winter trends regarding NAO, QBO vectors(my term), and solar state. The really, really good winter sequences often have a lot of that in the correct phases, but not all. Those are pretty much what I use. I was on a hot streak w/ 5 straight months of DJF forecasts going back to last winter. I learned all of that from mets and great hobby folks on this forum. This February bit the dust for my seasonal ideas, and when one looks at the ENSO state(see my comment above)...it was tough to time the collapse. But that collapse appears to have driven the switch to warmer temps. Cosgrove missed on February as well, BUT he called for a quick flip to warm during March as he said analogs showed the Nino would collapse. He had the right idea, but timing eluded him as well. Good call though on his part. Honestly, that was such an intense cold shot as evidenced by the record amount of time deep snow was on the ground in the eastern valley....it is not surprising that we broke towards spring. That happens a lot. It happened last winter. It also happened during 84-85 at TRI. The eastern trough this winter lasted about 25 days. Dec 15 - Jan 19. That is roughly four weeks and fits the 4-6 week pattern cycles that we have seen for many years. As soon as the last week of Jan warmed on modeling, I should have known the game was up...that was not a ridge rolling through on modeling for late January, but a true pattern change. I do still hold out hope for a well-timed bowling ball.
  11. Carvers Gap
    West of the Apps, La Nina's aren't terrible...they just have to remain weak. Moderate or strong La Nina and we torch. Some great winters have been weak La Nina's, but the there is usually help from the PDO, and we kind of want the PDO out of ENSO sync for that to happen.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Yes. On GaWx's map above(assuming those are examples of both...the positive phase is on the left), the positive phase on the left would favor less trough over the West. It is technically a Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Though it is often connectedt to ENSO state - not always. Because it is a decadal oscillation it can take 10+ years to flip, and it is long over due. Though, I make not claim to being an expert on this topic. Her is NASA JPL's PDO page.... https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/data/vital-signs/pacific-decadal-oscillation/#:~:text=During a cool (negative) phase,coastlines of the Northeast Pacific. Here is NCEI's page....(I like this one better...you will notice some differences between the two pages) https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ I can see why one person on X(reference Holston's earlier post) might say 2027 as that assumes the current cycle began during 2017 which also coincides w/ recent negative La Nina's. If one looks at the second NCEI site, one will notice lots of good winters correspond to +PDO cycles. We are actually due for it to come up for some air. It will sometimes turn briefly positive even during a negative cycle just according to NCEI's data. It doesn't have to be positive for long....even just briefly will do it. Maybe that is what JB is banking on? If so, there is some merit to that. We are in a pretty long stretch, and it should have gone positive this winter, but didn't. Pretty rare for it to stay negative for much longer than it has recently. This is anomalous negative activity.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Just reading D'Aleo over at WxBell who I respect a lot....he has a graph of one area of the Pac where the El Nino just collapsed during mid January (100-180?). I have not looked to see where that is, but I do wonder if the collapse of the El Nino has had a significant effect on the second half of winter. We kind of got the worst of both worlds - first half Nino(typically warm) and second half Nada(typically warm!). We managed about ten days of weak El Nino...and many scored. Also, JB thinks the PDO is set to flip positive next winter. I see no evidence of that but haven't looked at recent metrics for it. Anyone have a forecast for it?
  14. Carvers Gap
    Possible changes afoot. By using the general 4-6 week pattern rule, the current pattern should end during week 1 or 2 of March, and a new pattern should begin. The last couple of weeks of March do not look warm...could be a mirage, but let's see. I am completely ditching the MJO at this point. During spring it often doesn't have as much influence, and it is a very garbled signal.
  15. Carvers Gap
    D10-15 GEFS looks interesting...
  16. Carvers Gap
    Both the 18z GFS and 12z Euro control have a winter storm in the d8-10 range. Just something to watch.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Definitely got a heavy dose of graupel. To quote one of mine, "It looks like it is raining ice cream salt." High winds and salt coming down.... I could make a case that it is hail, but it is certainly frozen.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Congratulations to all scoring some frozen precip. We have had some sloppy rain in Kingsport, but I am pretending it is frozen.
  19. Carvers Gap
    This is the second straight weekend of snow showers and flurries for portions of TRI. And that is remarkable given how warm the weekdays have been!
  20. Carvers Gap
    Winter Wx Advisories are now posted for the Apps. Sam's Gap appears to be a mess. Newfound Gap is closed. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 353 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2024 TNZ018-043-045-047-242100- /O.EXB.KMRX.WW.Y.0006.240224T1500Z-240225T0600Z/ Johnson-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast Carter- Including the cities of Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Cedar Creek, Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, and Hampton 353 AM EST Sat Feb 24 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches above 2500 feet, and 2 to 3 inches above 4000 feet. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Johnson, Southeast Greene, Unicoi and Southeast Carter Counties. * WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Word. Yeah, for sure! Weeklies are still cold, but have trended warmer....so, we will watch the trend. We are in a "base warm" pattern currently, and I don't see any evidence in the next three weeks for that to change. But yeah, when Spring Break arrives I expect frost all the way to Tampa! Powell is right. Warm February's often result in an extended cold shot during spring. And there are pretty good reasons for that. It usually means that the TPV has been pretty stable at higher latitudes. Usually(not always), it is going to get disrupted by changing wavelengths during spring and head towards middle latitudes. Sometimes we are fortunate and it just sits tight and doesn't move.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Good post. I think there is an error either in programming or data input right now which is resulting in a LR ext bias (across modeling) for cold during weeks 3-4. I can't put my finger on it. What shows up is a double block (NAO along w/ PNA or EPO), and it is not verifying or even coming close to verifying. LR modeling has been pretty decent since last Feb...until this past late-Jan. So, I wonder w/ the changing wavelengths if modeling just can keep up during spring shoulder season? I do wonder if data input is a problem - meaning modeling cannot keep up w the collapsing El Nino. In other words, SSTs are changing so quickly that modeling is in constant "catch-up" mode. But yes, HUGE grains of salt for anything during weeks 3-4(cold or warm) right now. I did notice the Euro ext control and ensemble on the Euro LR ext did get out of sync prior to the temp bust...controls flipped back warm and caught the Feb temp bust very early in the process. As for the MJO, I don't think the signal is super clear...at least not clear to modeling. It is very low amplitude on the CPC plots this morning. And while phase 8 is cold during winter, by late March...it looks exactly like what we have in regards to temps across the lower 48. Also, doesn't the MJO have less influence during March as well? Anyway, this is the look(below) that has been in the LR for much of Jan and Feb, and hasn't verifying. The GEFS ext is a bit more realistic w/ a transient NAO(which has been the pattern this winter) vs one which locks in. IF(huge if) that verifies, that is a ver wintry pattern for higher elevations...but like you, just not sure I buy it.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Yep. Phase 5 MJO centered on FMA is cold. If the MJO above is correct, that isn't overly warm for mid-March.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Isn't 5 a cold phase during March?
  25. Carvers Gap
    I don't know what the issue w/ LR ext modeling is. It may just be LR ext modeling is not great during Jan/Feb. I suspect modeling missed the IO/SOI/MC area forecast. The anomalous GOA slp during December was not great. I also think the NAO is terribly difficult to forecast at any range, and that was a big miss. The NAO could have given us a chance for cold later this winter. When modeling lost it....flipped warm. So, I think the combo of difficulty in modeling the NAO and also MC regions modeling failures caused the bust. The strat split miss probably didn't help. Guessing we also have an ascending QBO and declining El Nino. Again, not all El Nino winters are cold and stormy. We thankfully got a decent, little window. But the 90s El Nino winters were hot garbage with the exception of a couple of really notable events. And honestly, outside of last winter, three of the last four winters have had some decent winter weather to track for at least some portion of the forum area.
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