Carvers Gap

And to reference my earlier post about this being the coldest day at TRI since 2015...

Here is the photo of S Holston Lake. A picture is worth a thousand words.... It not uncommon for high elevation lakes to freeze during cold winters in NE TN. It is quite uncommon for TVA lakes in NE TN to have that much ice in my experience.

MRX graphics for the weekend....

Portions of E TN mountain counties, some areas of SW VA, and mountain counties of SE KY are under a winter weather advisory for tomorrow as we are set to see what is hopefully the last cold shot for a bit. I need a break from the cold, and you won't hear that very often from me. We have just recently been BN(sometimes severely so) during our coldest climo of the year. TRI is at roughly 10" of snow so far since Jan 11th. Places around Nashville are still without power from the ice storm almost two weeks ago. Road crews and schools need a break. I know some places in NE TN have run out of salt. I would guess Feb will end up possibly AN due to the thaw next week, and the month being a short month. I had a warmer Feb as part of my winter forecast back in June - so part of me hopes it is slightly AN. However, the last ten days of the month could return to colder temperatures which might last into the well into March...However, as Jeff notes in the banter(?) thread, I don't think severe is out of the question. Often in our forum, severe weather and winter weather can coexist in the month of March.

Here are the winter monthly averages for TRI(so far): January -1.6F...snow 8.6 which is +5.6 AN December +0.7F...snow 0.9 which was -0.7 BN February (which will certainly modify some with WELCOMED warmed temps! bring it on) as of 2/4: -17.4F...snow is +0.4 so far February had the coldest day(regardless of month) since 2015 according to David Boyd of WCYB along w/ two record lows on Feb 1st and 2nd. February 1st was -27.8 BN and Feb 2nd was -28.4 BN. There are portions of lakes frozen solid right now which rarely freeze over in NE TN. There have been three record lows set in the 2000s at TRI....February 2026 now holds two of those three record lows. We have had back-to-back winter storms during the past two weekends...an ice storm and snow storm. It snowed again last night. I would guess MBY probably has had about 12" of snow so far this winter. Lots of nickel and dime stuff in addition to the big storm. And yes, temps after Christmas were warm, but oddly TRI didn't set a single record high here, but again....the temps for both December and January will average out BN for both months combined at TRI. With the exception of just a few days, TRI has been BN since Jan 11. This has been an impressive cold spell.

Definitely a strong signal showing up at this range. Is the Nino finally kicking in w/ the STJ starting to show some life?

Seriously...take the climate stuff somewhere else. But just so we have the record straight and don't just cherry pick....Temps are BN for DJF so far as a whole for TRI. That is just fact. TRI just booked two record lows for February to start the month. Rivers here are frozen solid here, but I bet you maybe don't know that. The last time I remember that was 17-18. Temps have been BN as a base level since Jan 11. The first half of December was BN. Definitely was a torch right after Christmas with the chinook...but again, you are cherry picking stuff. Take the rest of this garbage to the climate forum or back to your forum wherever that is.

Roads up her were/are a mess today. Snow(light) began falling last night at around 8:00PM and continued for about 5-6 hours. We got about .5-1” of snow and it absolutely wrecked I81. The rain froze on the spot as the front rolled in. That is the second time that has happened this year.

12z suite gonna make us track a system from 10 days out?! Just 40 more runs to go! LOL

Just looking at the 12z NAM, RGEM, and GFS....I think 0.5-1" of now over NE TN tonight is plausible.

I gotta admit. It feels good out there. After looking the Weeklies 500 pattern for March....I need to bank some warm days. Looks like cold returns after Feb 20th roughly. No guarantees.

I would post these in the storm thread. Honestly, it tells part of the story. When we look back in a few years, it will be great information.

Friday afternoon into Saturday....the 12z Euro continues to advertise a NW flow event. The RGEM at 18z definitely looks snowier...see John's post immediately above this. Is that the 18z RGEM?

The water main break in Fort Sanders is insane. This cold weather is doing a number on infrastructure. Go find some photos of it - WILD.

Usually takes them 1-2 days to input those.

Nope. Major temp bust. 0 was my forecast low. Radiational cooling due to snow pack will undercut many temp forecasts when skies clear. Modeling had this correct...the point and click did not.

There have been only three record lows set during the 2000s at TRI during February. 2026 now holds two of those three records(both sub zero temps). 2015 holds the other. A little bit of history made at TRI to start February.

Looks like TRI actually made it to -7F according to WCYB social media. David Boyd notes that the Feb 1 record was also broken last night as temps hit 1F right before midnight. Two records in one night....

The 12z RGEM puts half a foot in some areas one SW VA Weds-Thursday. @Daniel Boonehas been all over this.

Great find.

We have snow flurries as well.

Wow!!! That is truly impressive.

Looks like KTRI dipped to -6F according to the 3 day weather history. The low which was broken was from 1971(0F), and was TRI's coldest temp in 11 years per David Boyd, a met at WCYB. When we start breaking record lows from the 70s, that is saying something.

Just shuffling through wx maps and the weeklies. It looks like next weekend could be very cold yet again. Then, we warm-up during the second week of February. That has been well advertised and is no surprise. Then, sometime between d17-24 we could have another strong cool down per the Euro weeklies mean and control. That holds for roughly 2-3 weeks. Again, that really fits the winter pattern. But....changing wave lengths have the potential to create more chaos than normal within modeling. We are entering a time frame where LR modeling gets very undependable, even at the long wave level. But I do think roughly sometime between Feb 17-20 looks like the next resupply of very cold air(after this weekend). The NAO will often not be felt by modeling until just a few days prior to it strengthening. It establishes sometime (if models are correct) between Feb 8-9th. Then, I think it takes about 7-10 days for the eastern NA pattern to respond w/ a suppressed storm track.

The 18z GFS is advertising upslope next weekend for NE TN, SW VA, SE KY, and IF real...likely the Plateau works itself into the equation.