Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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CPC d8-14 analogs: 19770215 19800208 19770205 19770210 20060208 19780223 20040209 19840302 19780218 19570303
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CPC bringing it this afternoon.
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The following should be treated as a deterministic run...just an extension of the 0z run this morning. But that is a cold 30 day mean for that run. We are about to the point where weeklies aren't useful due to shoulder season approaching. I normally don't even look at these by this time in the winter as things are usually winding down. However, we may have a chance to put a bookend on this winter where we haven't been able to recently.
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I should add that strong storm signal starts around Feb 20th and ends around March 10th. It isn't just the seven days above.
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This is the week of with the strongest coastal signal. I don't recall seeing that signal during any previous weeks.
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Be sure to pay attention to the dates. I tried to cycle out the current precip w/ a 32d map. There is a strong EC storm signal on the 500 map if I were to scroll that forward. I "think" it is during the last 4 days of Feb??? Otherwise, this looks a lot different than recent February's. The torch(and it was a freaking torch) is behind us.
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The 12z CMC is outright frigid. The 12z Euro is cold. The 12z GFS doesn't seem to see the cold. Have we seen this movie before?
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Tagging onto BNA's post...the 12z CMC has the system as well on the 19th. The 12z GFS has it, but sent a reflection west of the Apps which messed up thermals. The odd thing....it still pretty much has the primary still taking the low road. With the STJ being so active, if we can time-up a cold shot with some moisture...could be big.
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Not uncommon IMBY. I don’t think this will be as cold as Jan, but the STJ should be more active. Suppression is always a risk, but the SER will fight suppression during the latter part of Feb. We just want to see everything below us right now. The CPC has us well below normal for temps in their d8-14 and above normal for precip. Before I had access to weather models, that is all I used. If BN cold and AN precip intersected….generally that meant someone was going to score.
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The 6z Euro has a system for Sunday which is a weak slider for middle and west TN. The 0z/6z GFS and 0z Euro absolutely hammer parts of the forum. The 0z Euro had 2-3 feet on the eastern rim around Nashville. Who knows if they are right? I don't. However, bitterly cold air being injected into a strong STJ can yield good result. Time will tell. The overnight setup has been their for several days on the GFS and on the Weeklies.
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Some pretty insane runs last night with snow chances between the 16th and 21st.
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Confluence is right over this area for the last half of the month.
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The 12z and 18z Euro are showing some potential for upslop and even a weak lee side/inland slp (after a cutter) around the 17th. That is really cold air moving in behind that. The 18z only goes out to 144.
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Modeling is definitely sensing the phase 8 MJO as @Daniel Boonenoted. I am guessing the GFS is under doing the cold. The mechanism is there to delivery frigid temps into the region during the second half of February.
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We could see real feels which are 80 degrees colder than the end of last week.
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Feb 17th and 20th on the Euro are pretty frigid. The Real Feel for the Canadian around the 17th is below zero for a decent amount of folks north of 40. Here is the d10 real feel on the Euro(which also has the cold on the 17th).
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I wouldn't say models are honking for Feb16-21...but they are kind of trying to. The 18z GFS has a setup.
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The 21z HRRR pulls the frozen precip line over the very northern edge of the Plateau early tomorrow morning. Sleet mainly. TRI...line held study w/ Sullivan getting some sleet yet again on that run. The HRRR definitely has more frozen precip than other models, but.....it can be pretty good over this area.
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The 19z HRRR is bringing in some mix(sleet) south of the TN line in NE TN. Been a slow progression southward today. Sneaky and pesky rain/sleet/snow line.
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I am also starting to see all global ensemble snow means bump up for Feb 15 onward.
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The 12z suite has switched to full suppression after mid-month. In fact, the timeframe between Feb17-21 looks really good for wintry weather.
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For once, I am glad to be in a rain shadow.
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12z ensembles are incredibly cold from the 16th onward. I think we have a good chance of someone scoring around that timeframe...and about ten days from when it thundered to boot. I am noticing the storm track push further and further south as well. Those cutters may become Apps runners or inland runners with time.
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12z suite may not have big clown maps, but that is a pretty good look. I would recommend starting a flood thread. This is likely going to be a major event.
