Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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I would feel decently good if I lived on the northern Plateau, in southwest Virginia, extreme NE TN, and SE KY. I agree with Boone that the firs system is likely to be rain for most, but some high elevation snow wouldn't surprise me. The first real chance is Feb 11 and then maybe alternating storms after that. We want to see(as others have noted) the first system to press the boundary south as it departs. Then, we want the second system to overrun the cold and trap it. This is less thread the needle and more timing. There aren't a ton of moving parts. This is 100% how far the cold presses after each storm. So, it is a little easier to track in my book. Still work to do, but 12z was a good step. I still think the very best that this pattern can hold is just at d16 now. Feb 20 to March 10 still looks ripe for the picking. If we can go phase 8 w/ this active STJ, somebody should score and maybe more than once.
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So, the 12z GFS could be a course correction or just an outlier or both. But the 12z GFS doesn't even look remotely like the 6z GFS. The Canadian looks quite similar to 0z. It is worth noting that the CMC sometimes will handle cold intrusions a bit better(if not a bit overdone on its part). And if ya'll see me posting during a model suite after days of "meh," you know something has caught my eye....or maybe something is just in my eye.
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Gotcha! LOL. The 12z GFS almost erased the SER. That might be a hint that a stall in 6 is unlikely. If that trend holds, we could see some major flips in modeling incoming.
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The GFS and GEFS ext(GMON) are IMHO getting absolutely roasted by the Euro and Euro Weeklies in regards to the Weeklies - so far. However, the GFS is doing ok w/ modeling systems at range on actual surface maps over NA. That doesn't quite jive. However, I think we need to be careful with the GFS right now as its MJO plotting has been abysmal - I mean really bad. The Canadian and Euro have been more accurate. If it stalls in 6, then American modeling wins. If it races across 6, then American modeling is in big time "catchup" mode. Normally, I would spike the ball and declare American modeling DOA. However, notice that the MJO (when it hit 6)gains a bit higher amplitude. That is a small miss for European modeling. However, the European was correct with the MJO racing across 4 and 5 at low amplitude. Big test coming up. If we are out of 6(even just a bit slower than the Euro depicts), we are good to go. The initial GEFS ext plots had it stalling in 6 and never leaving for the rest of winter. The GEFS ext (GMON) is a full week slower getting into phase 8 - of which its forecast died in phase 6 just weeks ago. American modeling has been dragging its feet with the MJO. To repeat, the real test is now at hand. If it hustles across 6, American modeling is in real trouble with even its medium range products. If it stalls for 10-12 days in 6, then initial American modeling was right. IMHO, the reason we are seeing big swings within certain suites is the handling of the MJO. Actual surface modeling over NA should tip the hand of modeling for future MJO plots. If the cold presses eastward, the CMC/Euro MJO is probably on the precipice of a win. The 12z suite definitely was pushing the cold more. The 12z GFS was a pretty massive break in continuity.
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I haven't looked closely as these events are still way out there. However, I suspect we are seeing some variations in time of day, rates, and how far the cold pushes southward. Those there aforementioned combos make big differences here in NE TN. The 12z CMC drops 4-12" over TRI. The 12z GFS is probably 200 miles south of where it was just at 6z. We are on the southernmost extent of this setup. We generally want to be on the north side of the rain/snow line, and let it work northward. Right now, wow are on the southside of that line with 6 days to go....not a good spot, but sometimes that does work out.
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The 12z suite is south of overnight guidance yet again. I find it hard to believe that is just a coincidence. The CMC has snow for E TN yet again. The GFS is close. I do agree the preponderance of runs suggest KY to the NE. However, as we saw with the Florida systems, sometimes(not always) systems do trend south if the incoming cold is strong. I give us a 35% chance of measurable snow.
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Everybody in E TN and NC are like....nope, nope, nope! LOL. We have had all the flooding that we want to see for like the next 50 years.
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I take full credit for models shifting MAJORLY south at 12z. LOL.
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We will see where modeling goes today, but almost all of the overnight modeling has shifted the rain/snow line well north of the area. It would take a major shift for that to come back south, and I think that is unlikely. I think our best chances are between Feb20-March10. Feb10-20 continues to look like a transition from much AN temps to seasonal/below. Yesterday was crazy warm. I actually got out and cleaned up the yard. Temps were around 70. It is looking more and more(like many winters which had severe cold) that the weather pattern has snapped back warm. The SER will fight winter the rest of the way. We are close to a standing wave over the SE.
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The 12z Euro Ensemble snow mean isn’t too shabby. It is usually slow to get on board.
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The Euro Weeklies are cold. The control is frigid. Control buries E TN.
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What is crazy is that before the MJO really takes hold in the colder phases. I suspect those are just the opening salvos.
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The 6z AIFS has the winter storm. This is the good stuff below. By mid February, the Euro has the MJO in phase 8. The EURO MJO plot has been kicking butt and taking names of late.
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IDK. I will add that the Euro Weeklies ext hav flipped at 500 to a much colder pattern. BIG difference from the past several weeks of runs. And that set of weeklies wasn't derived from the 12z run which was colder.
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With ensembles potentially flipping mid-month, something is afoot. Most analogs had February warm, but March cold. That tells me that maybe not all of Feb was warm. All we can ask for at this range is an STJ on steroids and BN temps. The MJO looks ripe. High latitude blocking signatures are off the charts.
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Gimme some of that.
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If you want to draw up a February pattern which delivers, it looks like this...The PDO is kicking the trough out of the West IMHO.
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I think a lot of this is just going to come down to timing. There are some VERY cold highs lurking during the aforementioned timeframes. Again, with things flipping, I highly doubt this is nailed down ten days out.
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Look at the move that ensembles have made since 18z yesterday. Pretty impressive trend over four runs. I think we are looking at very cold temps just after this FWIW.
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12z Euro is a southern KY slider.....I think anyone north of I-40 needs to keep an eye on this. This winter it seems the verified boundary has been south of modeling. Ensembles have flipped cold - big move. I doubt modeling is done adjusting.
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The thing is the PDO is not impeding things right now. I am starting to thing the PDO can trump bad climatology, and has been for a long time(when it positive). The new CANSIPS has warm-water along the eastern Pac Coast to start next winter. I am thinking my next season's forecast is gonna be pretty bullish.
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Yeah, man. With bitter cold in the Plains and the STJ on flamethrower mode, somebody is likely gonna get hammered east of the MS.
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We don't want that push. We want a west-to-east confluence over our area w/ the STJ just ripping. The GFS is very cold at the end of its run. One cutter, and we could be well below zero.
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This is one of these patterns where if we don't hit on the first, there are like 2-3 after it. The GFS ended its run w/ another big storm incoming. Reminds me of the later December look on modeling. Maybe shorter wavelengths in Feb could help. If TRI can hit on one of these, we could end up way above "new" climatology for snow.
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@Daniel Boone, that is a 95-96 redux. Nice storm, big warm-up, and another storm after the first 1/3 of Feb.
