Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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We will see where modeling goes today, but almost all of the overnight modeling has shifted the rain/snow line well north of the area. It would take a major shift for that to come back south, and I think that is unlikely. I think our best chances are between Feb20-March10. Feb10-20 continues to look like a transition from much AN temps to seasonal/below. Yesterday was crazy warm. I actually got out and cleaned up the yard. Temps were around 70. It is looking more and more(like many winters which had severe cold) that the weather pattern has snapped back warm. The SER will fight winter the rest of the way. We are close to a standing wave over the SE.
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The 12z Euro Ensemble snow mean isn’t too shabby. It is usually slow to get on board.
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The Euro Weeklies are cold. The control is frigid. Control buries E TN.
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What is crazy is that before the MJO really takes hold in the colder phases. I suspect those are just the opening salvos.
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The 6z AIFS has the winter storm. This is the good stuff below. By mid February, the Euro has the MJO in phase 8. The EURO MJO plot has been kicking butt and taking names of late.
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IDK. I will add that the Euro Weeklies ext hav flipped at 500 to a much colder pattern. BIG difference from the past several weeks of runs. And that set of weeklies wasn't derived from the 12z run which was colder.
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With ensembles potentially flipping mid-month, something is afoot. Most analogs had February warm, but March cold. That tells me that maybe not all of Feb was warm. All we can ask for at this range is an STJ on steroids and BN temps. The MJO looks ripe. High latitude blocking signatures are off the charts.
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Gimme some of that.
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If you want to draw up a February pattern which delivers, it looks like this...The PDO is kicking the trough out of the West IMHO.
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I think a lot of this is just going to come down to timing. There are some VERY cold highs lurking during the aforementioned timeframes. Again, with things flipping, I highly doubt this is nailed down ten days out.
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Look at the move that ensembles have made since 18z yesterday. Pretty impressive trend over four runs. I think we are looking at very cold temps just after this FWIW.
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12z Euro is a southern KY slider.....I think anyone north of I-40 needs to keep an eye on this. This winter it seems the verified boundary has been south of modeling. Ensembles have flipped cold - big move. I doubt modeling is done adjusting.
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The thing is the PDO is not impeding things right now. I am starting to thing the PDO can trump bad climatology, and has been for a long time(when it positive). The new CANSIPS has warm-water along the eastern Pac Coast to start next winter. I am thinking my next season's forecast is gonna be pretty bullish.
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Yeah, man. With bitter cold in the Plains and the STJ on flamethrower mode, somebody is likely gonna get hammered east of the MS.
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We don't want that push. We want a west-to-east confluence over our area w/ the STJ just ripping. The GFS is very cold at the end of its run. One cutter, and we could be well below zero.
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This is one of these patterns where if we don't hit on the first, there are like 2-3 after it. The GFS ended its run w/ another big storm incoming. Reminds me of the later December look on modeling. Maybe shorter wavelengths in Feb could help. If TRI can hit on one of these, we could end up way above "new" climatology for snow.
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@Daniel Boone, that is a 95-96 redux. Nice storm, big warm-up, and another storm after the first 1/3 of Feb.
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Boundary has been trending south on modeling. Reminds me a lot of the "no way it is gonna snow in Tallahassee" storm where it just kept sagging further and further south. Good trends. The CMC looked loaded for bear at the end of its run. That cold means business.
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Ensembles have cooled off this morning around mid-month, if not earlier. Like last time, the deterministic runs caught it before the ensembles locked in. Then....the ensembles held it while the deterministic runs flipped back and forth. John has the 0z suite covered above. If that was a 12z suite, there would be 2-3 pages of posts.
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18z AIFS is decent.
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The Interior NE is almost a lock at this point to get buried. Ohio River looks like a sweet spot as well. We want that boundary pressed south with each slp. With as active as the STJ is...almost have to think someone in the SE see frozen on more than one occasion. That is an active pattern.
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Euro absolutely sent it after 240. Shots fired!
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That strat split that Holston showed....that will wreck complete havoc on modeling. That might be why the ensembles are slow to change things up. I doubt ensembles can handle a strat split any better than a deterministic can. The GFS several winters ago nailed a strat split from 16 days out, and has done that more than once. It is a big uncanny that it can do that.
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When I see cold in the Montana prairies and Dakotas....it usually finds its way into this area. Just something to watch. SER is gonna fight.
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I mean seriously, ya'll. Go look at the interior NE maps. LOL.
