Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Ensembles have cooled off this morning around mid-month, if not earlier. Like last time, the deterministic runs caught it before the ensembles locked in. Then....the ensembles held it while the deterministic runs flipped back and forth. John has the 0z suite covered above. If that was a 12z suite, there would be 2-3 pages of posts.
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18z AIFS is decent.
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The Interior NE is almost a lock at this point to get buried. Ohio River looks like a sweet spot as well. We want that boundary pressed south with each slp. With as active as the STJ is...almost have to think someone in the SE see frozen on more than one occasion. That is an active pattern.
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Euro absolutely sent it after 240. Shots fired!
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That strat split that Holston showed....that will wreck complete havoc on modeling. That might be why the ensembles are slow to change things up. I doubt ensembles can handle a strat split any better than a deterministic can. The GFS several winters ago nailed a strat split from 16 days out, and has done that more than once. It is a big uncanny that it can do that.
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When I see cold in the Montana prairies and Dakotas....it usually finds its way into this area. Just something to watch. SER is gonna fight.
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I mean seriously, ya'll. Go look at the interior NE maps. LOL.
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The ensembles are not showing the cold that the deterministic runs are....yet. So, I am kind of holding back a bit until those get on board. The Weeklies just perpetuate a stable pattern if they can. They never made the transition from cold to warm(well they made the transition late). That said, the control about 50% of the time does show cold returning. Need those ensembles on board. I haven't looked at ensembles yet today, just deterministic. Since we are about to enter another shoulder season, I figure they are gonna be a mess.
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While we are still watching mid-Feb, the interior NE could just get smashed. Take a look at the 6z GFS amounts for that area on Tropical Tidbits. Snowmeggedon type of stuff (not here, but there).
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There we go. The 18z AIFS is cold and snowy....bout that time.
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The 12z Euro AIFS has a big storm around the 13th. I wouldn't say models are honking, but they are starting to make some noise around then. That seems to be a decent little window between the 10th and 14th. Then another ridge rolls though. We might have 2-3 windows(which are 2-3 days in length) where we can score. The EMON(EURO ext) MJO looks super promising. Modeling will react and turn colder if that is correct. So far, the Euro MJO is winning. American modeling has left the idea of a stall in 6, and progress in its forecast. So, I "think" we will see a cooling trend in modeling beginning around the 20th. Looks like a decent loop through cold. The timing(being late in Feb) isn't ideal, but we get what we get, right?
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12z GFS hints again at the Feb11th time frame as an overrunning event.
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I still feel like the Feb 20-March 7 timeframe is a good bet for cool. I think we see some back and forth cold Feb 10-20. Base warm February looks on tap. Analogs had a strong warm signal for Feb. I think they may well be right. I do think we see a similar pattern reversal as we did during late December. Ensembles are very warm. Operationals, including the 18z GFS, are pretty chilly.
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The 12z Euro has made the same shift. That is a pretty cold look after d9. Pretty big departures from normal.
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And suddenly, the 12z GFS discovers the MJO is not permanently stuck in phase 6. Suppressed pattern by decent cold. I feel like I have seen this movie before.
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It does look soggy though!!!!
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The last time that happened...the GFS lost that battle pretty badly (early January....looks almost identical to this battle). This go around... I am not overly confident with either model right now. The BOMM has the MJO rapidly cycling through the MJO plots(like twice!). The Euro and American MJO plots are in a little bit better agreement this morning. But....the actualy surface maps look like the BOMM! No really pattern locks in. Just lots of anomalous cold and anomalous warmth cycling through every few days. It looks rainy with the SER pushing north with precip, and then cold/dry air masses forcing it south. Wash, rinse, repeat. We need for their wires to get crossed, and stir up a storm. Again, I do think that Feb 20 could possible be the demarcation line where we get one last shot of cold air which lasts into a yet to be determined time in March.
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To me, it looks like Feb10-20 is a transition back to colder weather. Then we see cold for a undetermined amount of time for the last ten days of the month. This will potentially be our third cold shot this winter. The MJO is driving the bus right now.
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Just looking at the CPC MJO plots this morning, the GMON and GFS have caved to the Euro products. The EMON has the MJO into phase 8 for the last 10 days of the month. American plots get into phase 7 by mid month. 7 isn't great, but at least it isn't 6. The EMON has us into 7 on Feb 6 which is about ten days faster than American modeling. American modeling has sped up, and likely will speed up quite a bit more. So far.....the lower amplitude Euro runs are verifying.
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The time of moderation is at hand. I gotta be honest...I don't mind a bit of a warm-up. Is this the end of winter? I don't know. I tend to think this is a warm-up that lasts until about February 9th. What happens after that Feb 9th cold front will tell the tale. There is a chance of a standing wave SER - sucks if you don't know what is and you like winter. That is also flood city. The 12z EPS/GEPS ensembles bring the cold back. I tend to think of this warm-up as similar to what we saw after Christmas. It will be intense, and a cool down follows...then followed by very cold temps compared to normal. I think winter has shown its hand in that regard. As for the MJO, I tend to like the BOMM. It is quicker and looks like modeling which doesn't lock-in cold, but really doesn't lock-in warmth either. If you had to choose a set of months which are by far the hardest to forecast(hobby forecasting not the real kind), February-April is a brute. "May the odds be forever in your favor" kind of stuff. I still like the idea of a very cold start to March. I feel a bit more confident in saying Feb 20 - March 14 will be BN in terms of temps. Pretty good signal for strong cold then. The second and third weeks of Feb seem like a back-and-forth pattern which is cold and then warm-up-and-rain. We will probably need a tandem set of tty systems to get snow during that time frame, ie. the first system sets the boundary, and the second system runs it.
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The EB wipe us out in Kingsport. All rain.
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The 0z GFS and NAM have that sneaky system Monday. The RGEM doesn't have it at all. Something to watch. Nothing big, but interesting for those north of 40.
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The 18z GFS is threatening w Tenn w/ an overrunning ice storm. Overall, no big changes to yesterday's ideas. Been doing the swim meet thing this weekend, guys. See you Monday!
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Overnight and early morning ensembles depict the GEPS/EPS vs the GEFS after Feb7th. The first two ensembles take us below normal yet again. The second gets there, but only marginally. Worlds apart at 500. Their MJO plots are also worlds apart.
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I'm afraid to look at mine.
