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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    I think Feb 20-28 is gonna be a wee bit chilly.... @John1122, I think we are gonna need a Mammoth update from you. Whoa.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I will wait for 12z and the afternoon weeklies and maybe make a post later today. Very good overnight trends.
  3. Carvers Gap
    All global ensembles are on track for NA to cool down to BN temps by mid-Feb and then hold for several weeks. I am sure there is some fluctuation within the overall 500 pattern, but that is a really, really good look. The 0z Euro control is quite cold. Is it going to be cold enough to snow? Time will tell. BN temps in Feb don't equal BN temps in January.
  4. Carvers Gap
    CPC MJO plot update....the MJO appears to be set to take the tour through cold phases. They’re could be a loop in 7, but most global ensembles (notably the EMON), take the MJO through cold phases. I suspect we see modeling adjust rapidly to that trend if it is real - and it should be. We will be fighting daylight and sun angle, but looks like winter is gonna go one last round.
  5. Carvers Gap
    And to tag on to my recent post and in the them of Monopoly....Bank error in your favor. Collect $200.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I think I have made a mistake. What I thought was a change in continuity - is not. It is phase 8 to phase 1 w/ AN heights over the Mountain West and norther Plains. The model is progressing as planned. That also means the 12z EPS was in phase 8/1...good sign.
  7. Carvers Gap
    There is a pretty epic cold pattern on a lot of modeling....but the fail potential here, and I must warn you, is much higher than the mid-January set-up. But if the cold verifies...great pattern potentially. If it doesn't....that is just the way it goes. So, we wait.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I have a bunch of slides, but I think the MJO is so conflicted that I am hesitant to post some of the extreme cold showing up. I think (and a lot of modeling supports this) that the MJO rotates through phase 8....but there is a school of thought that it dodges 8 and crosses back into the warm phases w/ barely any time in the cold phases. We have a decent majority showing cold phases of the MJO....but the EMON is iffy. I also didn't like the end of the 12z EPS today as it broke continuity....and looked like the MJO flipped warm. So, I am going to play my cards close today....and look for trends over the next 48 hours. The CPC 3-4 week forecast has BN temps, but beware.... The GMON MJO.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Just chilling until this gets into range. Pretty severe cold shot showing up on lr ext modeling from say Feb 18-25. It is very apparent on both the CFSv2 and Weeklies control. That looks like consequences from the SSW from January. Crazy looking pattern. The Euro control has nearly two feet of snow over TRI.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies (mean surface temps) are quite cold. As for the SSW, the MJO rotating back into 4-6 is an outside concern, but that has been brewing for a few days. The MJO has been in error most time this winter when it does anything but take the cold and warm tours. Could be a loop back into 6 early on, but after that should be good. The strat split may not help/hurt us until early or mid March.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The Euro control (weeklies) snowfall map is significant.
  12. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Ramblerbeat me to it. Just too good not to have in the main thread.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Day 8-14 analogs: 19800207 19530209 19650228 19680207 20040209 19770211 19780216 19700209 19860206 20060207
  14. Carvers Gap
    As noted over the summer, the Mountain West would likely see their best winter early. El Nino winters are no bueno for Montana and Wyoming. Cooke City, Montana, has bare ground showing and pavement on their streets is seen. Not sure I ever remember seeing that happen. That is a major hit for an area dependent on snow for snow machines. My guess is that drought will develop quite quickly for the summer, and that is not good news for obvious reasons. Again, I am a little careful as to how I word things so as it doesn't provide an easy search in a search engine for parties up to no good.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Don't really have much to add today. The cold is coming into focus, but really we have about another week before really getting anything into a reasonable range to track. Been following the Tennessee-Virginia vs NCAA case.
  16. Carvers Gap
    We gettin' ready to fix that problem for ya. LOL. The battle is under way. Donde vs the NCAA.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Better WiFi now...The Euro Weeklies also are colder w/ the control being colder - very cold to be exact. Looks like ensembles are swing the cold and a likely strong rotation into phase 8 of the MJO. Pattern change is at about d14 and progressing. The colder ensemble looks(and the gefs was cold at 12z) tell me the warmer individuals are slowly getting tossed as we get closer.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS has the cold here by the 14th and is quicker by four days compared to the Weeklies which was derived from 0z. To have the cold here as the tough arrives implies a storm in that mix to draw the air down. I don’t have a great internet connection, but great 12z suite.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Well, the 12z GFS was a pretty good run.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, good sign to see that. Maybe the only "fly in the ointment" is the Euro Weeklies have been trending slightly warmer with each run, but still cold. That said, they did the exact same thing around Christmas.
  21. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Or I got an early look at the 18z run which has a 1052 at 372.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The 2m temps on the GEPS were not warm at all - the opposite. I look at the GEFS for trends. It is cooling off. The GFS at 18z has the cold front again. Over time, ensembles will begin to add or subtract colder individuals. So, watching trends means the model is doing exactly that. I have heard a rule that if the GEPS is cold and getting colder...pay attention.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEPS puts the Lower 48 in the freezer. The GEFS isn't far behind. Ensembles are cooling off.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The 1050 high at the end of the 18z GFS shows us the possibility of the upcoming pattern. I would be very surprised to see any cold get buried in the West after the 15th.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the high for January will be 70 and the low will be 3 at TRI. That is pretty amazing, especially given that those two occurred roughly 7 days apart.
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