Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Jason, Bill, and Paul.
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Good share. There is definitely a loose correlation between severe weather and winter storms following. I remember the Powell tornado well. I had three friends at UT who played on the state team for Powell. We went over to see the damage afterwards. The coincidence this week was not lost on me. For me, eerily similar circumstances to the event in 93.
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Well, American modeling has stopped with the phase 6 stall which it held onto for a long time(weeks). It is now progressing at a similar pace as other modeling. Thus, we are now seeing rather drastic changes in LR modeling. Weeklies have flipped back cold. I think we are looking at a week or two of -10 departures from normal. Looking at the CPC d8-14 forecast, we can see BN temps and AN precip. For now, this looks like a warm-up and rain pattern w/ cold dry intervals....but I highly doubt any of the models are caught up. BTW, I suspect this makes a full rotation. It is possible this could loop back through 8 again which I would welcome, but a full rotation is more likely(but not certain). Looks like the old GEFS plots (not this one) will bust bigly. This begs to ask the question, "Do we even trust GFS modeling d10-15?" I think the Euro is probably a better model right now. To be clear, it literally stalled the MJO in 5-6 for the rest of winter at one point. Now, look at today's.
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This has been a steady trend for a couple of days. It could radically alter what we are seeing in even the medium range if real. Definitely some good signs starting about d8-9. Might be the most impressive look of the winter. Still a long ways out there, but well worth your time to look at.
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Insane run by the 18z GFS....NAO is 5 sigmas negative? The ensembles at 12z are showing something similar. That HL blocking is under 200...this isn't way out there.
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The Euro Weeklies are throwing out some really good looks which at times include a -EPO and -NAO. The window looks like Feb 17th to around March 10th. I am seeing 10 degrees BN for departures. Pretty frigid look. Halftime is almost over, and what a glorious one it has been.
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Starting to see sub zero real feels show up on modeling around Feb 17.
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If u want to see some pretty massive changes at high latitudes at 500, go look at all of the afternoon ensembles. This sets the stage for a pretty significant cold outbreak after mid-month. Flip city.
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Both the ICON and CMC at 12z have a slp taking the low road around 132.
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The LR seems much clearer today. It looks like a strong cold front will make its way into the region on either Feb16 or Feb17. The week prior will be a transitional period and very rainy. After the strong cold from on the 16th/17th there will likely be 3-4 cold shots of 2-4 days duration each time with warmups in between. Is it a “warmup and rain pattern” after mid month? Maybe, but details are likely poor at this range. The February analog package that I used for this year has been spot on. February is 13+ in terms of temps so far. This month is now almost guaranteed to be AN for temps. March looks chilly, at least the start of it does.
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Plenty of thunder. Mountain rules are in play.
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We gonna try wall-to-wall cold next winter?
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There is also a very strong -NAO signal on all ensembles after d10. That is likely the SSW having some impact. That is coupled with help from the Pacific. Could be some fireworks to end winter. We will see.
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What is crazy is that it seems that flooding preceding cold(at this time of year) is not terribly uncommon in my experience in NE TN. Hey, it thundered this morning IMBY. Ten day clock is counting.
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The 12z Euro is pretty frigid late in that run. Even the GFS gets pretty cold as well. I think we are starting to see some convergence on when/if cold returns. I still think we see a transition from say Feb9-17th. Then, I think we see the MJO rotate into 8 around Feb 16th. I don't think there will be a lag...cold likely returns consistently around then. It might stall there???? Or it might loop quickly back around per the old BOMM from a few days ago. Models will often be too quick with cold returning. It is possible that we go cold/dry when that change occurs. So, I don't want to overhype... American modeling is in the Euro camp today regarding the MJO on CPC's plots.
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13-15" of rain on the 6z GFS for large portions of middle TN, the Plateau, and E TN. I am guessing that is model feedback. Other globals only have a 1/3 of that. Hopefully that is an outlier which does not verify.
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If you haven't noticed, I am big on watching trends and looking for breaks in continuity. For the record, one run doesn't equal a trend. However, with the CMC holding steady and the GFS moving towards it...that is what gets my attention. At some point the colder MJO plots should start bearing fruit in LR modeling. We are at a point where deterministic runs can lead the ensembles even at range. We are at the fork in the road so to speak. We have seen the Feb 9th timeframe as a demarcation point between American modeling and the CMC/Euro combo. So, we should see some commonalities begin to re-emerge in modeling. Yesterday morning, it looked like warm was going to be dominant. Now, I am not so sure. We saw the abrupt change yesterday at 12z. We are seeing something similar, though less pronounced today at 12z. I think we see several precip impulses(you all see the same I am sure) between Feb9-16. Then, I think the cold presses east west across an undetermined boundary but likely centered just along the Ohio River Valley, but formidable enough to bring snow north of I-40 at times.
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I would feel decently good if I lived on the northern Plateau, in southwest Virginia, extreme NE TN, and SE KY. I agree with Boone that the firs system is likely to be rain for most, but some high elevation snow wouldn't surprise me. The first real chance is Feb 11 and then maybe alternating storms after that. We want to see(as others have noted) the first system to press the boundary south as it departs. Then, we want the second system to overrun the cold and trap it. This is less thread the needle and more timing. There aren't a ton of moving parts. This is 100% how far the cold presses after each storm. So, it is a little easier to track in my book. Still work to do, but 12z was a good step. I still think the very best that this pattern can hold is just at d16 now. Feb 20 to March 10 still looks ripe for the picking. If we can go phase 8 w/ this active STJ, somebody should score and maybe more than once.
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So, the 12z GFS could be a course correction or just an outlier or both. But the 12z GFS doesn't even look remotely like the 6z GFS. The Canadian looks quite similar to 0z. It is worth noting that the CMC sometimes will handle cold intrusions a bit better(if not a bit overdone on its part). And if ya'll see me posting during a model suite after days of "meh," you know something has caught my eye....or maybe something is just in my eye.
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Gotcha! LOL. The 12z GFS almost erased the SER. That might be a hint that a stall in 6 is unlikely. If that trend holds, we could see some major flips in modeling incoming.
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The GFS and GEFS ext(GMON) are IMHO getting absolutely roasted by the Euro and Euro Weeklies in regards to the Weeklies - so far. However, the GFS is doing ok w/ modeling systems at range on actual surface maps over NA. That doesn't quite jive. However, I think we need to be careful with the GFS right now as its MJO plotting has been abysmal - I mean really bad. The Canadian and Euro have been more accurate. If it stalls in 6, then American modeling wins. If it races across 6, then American modeling is in big time "catchup" mode. Normally, I would spike the ball and declare American modeling DOA. However, notice that the MJO (when it hit 6)gains a bit higher amplitude. That is a small miss for European modeling. However, the European was correct with the MJO racing across 4 and 5 at low amplitude. Big test coming up. If we are out of 6(even just a bit slower than the Euro depicts), we are good to go. The initial GEFS ext plots had it stalling in 6 and never leaving for the rest of winter. The GEFS ext (GMON) is a full week slower getting into phase 8 - of which its forecast died in phase 6 just weeks ago. American modeling has been dragging its feet with the MJO. To repeat, the real test is now at hand. If it hustles across 6, American modeling is in real trouble with even its medium range products. If it stalls for 10-12 days in 6, then initial American modeling was right. IMHO, the reason we are seeing big swings within certain suites is the handling of the MJO. Actual surface modeling over NA should tip the hand of modeling for future MJO plots. If the cold presses eastward, the CMC/Euro MJO is probably on the precipice of a win. The 12z suite definitely was pushing the cold more. The 12z GFS was a pretty massive break in continuity.
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I haven't looked closely as these events are still way out there. However, I suspect we are seeing some variations in time of day, rates, and how far the cold pushes southward. Those there aforementioned combos make big differences here in NE TN. The 12z CMC drops 4-12" over TRI. The 12z GFS is probably 200 miles south of where it was just at 6z. We are on the southernmost extent of this setup. We generally want to be on the north side of the rain/snow line, and let it work northward. Right now, wow are on the southside of that line with 6 days to go....not a good spot, but sometimes that does work out.
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The 12z suite is south of overnight guidance yet again. I find it hard to believe that is just a coincidence. The CMC has snow for E TN yet again. The GFS is close. I do agree the preponderance of runs suggest KY to the NE. However, as we saw with the Florida systems, sometimes(not always) systems do trend south if the incoming cold is strong. I give us a 35% chance of measurable snow.
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Everybody in E TN and NC are like....nope, nope, nope! LOL. We have had all the flooding that we want to see for like the next 50 years.
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I take full credit for models shifting MAJORLY south at 12z. LOL.
