Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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The 21z HRRR pulls the frozen precip line over the very northern edge of the Plateau early tomorrow morning. Sleet mainly. TRI...line held study w/ Sullivan getting some sleet yet again on that run. The HRRR definitely has more frozen precip than other models, but.....it can be pretty good over this area.
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The 19z HRRR is bringing in some mix(sleet) south of the TN line in NE TN. Been a slow progression southward today. Sneaky and pesky rain/sleet/snow line.
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I am also starting to see all global ensemble snow means bump up for Feb 15 onward.
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The 12z suite has switched to full suppression after mid-month. In fact, the timeframe between Feb17-21 looks really good for wintry weather.
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For once, I am glad to be in a rain shadow.
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12z ensembles are incredibly cold from the 16th onward. I think we have a good chance of someone scoring around that timeframe...and about ten days from when it thundered to boot. I am noticing the storm track push further and further south as well. Those cutters may become Apps runners or inland runners with time.
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12z suite may not have big clown maps, but that is a pretty good look. I would recommend starting a flood thread. This is likely going to be a major event.
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Jason, Bill, and Paul.
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Good share. There is definitely a loose correlation between severe weather and winter storms following. I remember the Powell tornado well. I had three friends at UT who played on the state team for Powell. We went over to see the damage afterwards. The coincidence this week was not lost on me. For me, eerily similar circumstances to the event in 93.
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Well, American modeling has stopped with the phase 6 stall which it held onto for a long time(weeks). It is now progressing at a similar pace as other modeling. Thus, we are now seeing rather drastic changes in LR modeling. Weeklies have flipped back cold. I think we are looking at a week or two of -10 departures from normal. Looking at the CPC d8-14 forecast, we can see BN temps and AN precip. For now, this looks like a warm-up and rain pattern w/ cold dry intervals....but I highly doubt any of the models are caught up. BTW, I suspect this makes a full rotation. It is possible this could loop back through 8 again which I would welcome, but a full rotation is more likely(but not certain). Looks like the old GEFS plots (not this one) will bust bigly. This begs to ask the question, "Do we even trust GFS modeling d10-15?" I think the Euro is probably a better model right now. To be clear, it literally stalled the MJO in 5-6 for the rest of winter at one point. Now, look at today's.
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This has been a steady trend for a couple of days. It could radically alter what we are seeing in even the medium range if real. Definitely some good signs starting about d8-9. Might be the most impressive look of the winter. Still a long ways out there, but well worth your time to look at.
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Insane run by the 18z GFS....NAO is 5 sigmas negative? The ensembles at 12z are showing something similar. That HL blocking is under 200...this isn't way out there.
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The Euro Weeklies are throwing out some really good looks which at times include a -EPO and -NAO. The window looks like Feb 17th to around March 10th. I am seeing 10 degrees BN for departures. Pretty frigid look. Halftime is almost over, and what a glorious one it has been.
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Starting to see sub zero real feels show up on modeling around Feb 17.
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If u want to see some pretty massive changes at high latitudes at 500, go look at all of the afternoon ensembles. This sets the stage for a pretty significant cold outbreak after mid-month. Flip city.
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Both the ICON and CMC at 12z have a slp taking the low road around 132.
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The LR seems much clearer today. It looks like a strong cold front will make its way into the region on either Feb16 or Feb17. The week prior will be a transitional period and very rainy. After the strong cold from on the 16th/17th there will likely be 3-4 cold shots of 2-4 days duration each time with warmups in between. Is it a “warmup and rain pattern” after mid month? Maybe, but details are likely poor at this range. The February analog package that I used for this year has been spot on. February is 13+ in terms of temps so far. This month is now almost guaranteed to be AN for temps. March looks chilly, at least the start of it does.
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Plenty of thunder. Mountain rules are in play.
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We gonna try wall-to-wall cold next winter?
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There is also a very strong -NAO signal on all ensembles after d10. That is likely the SSW having some impact. That is coupled with help from the Pacific. Could be some fireworks to end winter. We will see.
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What is crazy is that it seems that flooding preceding cold(at this time of year) is not terribly uncommon in my experience in NE TN. Hey, it thundered this morning IMBY. Ten day clock is counting.
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The 12z Euro is pretty frigid late in that run. Even the GFS gets pretty cold as well. I think we are starting to see some convergence on when/if cold returns. I still think we see a transition from say Feb9-17th. Then, I think we see the MJO rotate into 8 around Feb 16th. I don't think there will be a lag...cold likely returns consistently around then. It might stall there???? Or it might loop quickly back around per the old BOMM from a few days ago. Models will often be too quick with cold returning. It is possible that we go cold/dry when that change occurs. So, I don't want to overhype... American modeling is in the Euro camp today regarding the MJO on CPC's plots.
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13-15" of rain on the 6z GFS for large portions of middle TN, the Plateau, and E TN. I am guessing that is model feedback. Other globals only have a 1/3 of that. Hopefully that is an outlier which does not verify.
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If you haven't noticed, I am big on watching trends and looking for breaks in continuity. For the record, one run doesn't equal a trend. However, with the CMC holding steady and the GFS moving towards it...that is what gets my attention. At some point the colder MJO plots should start bearing fruit in LR modeling. We are at a point where deterministic runs can lead the ensembles even at range. We are at the fork in the road so to speak. We have seen the Feb 9th timeframe as a demarcation point between American modeling and the CMC/Euro combo. So, we should see some commonalities begin to re-emerge in modeling. Yesterday morning, it looked like warm was going to be dominant. Now, I am not so sure. We saw the abrupt change yesterday at 12z. We are seeing something similar, though less pronounced today at 12z. I think we see several precip impulses(you all see the same I am sure) between Feb9-16. Then, I think the cold presses east west across an undetermined boundary but likely centered just along the Ohio River Valley, but formidable enough to bring snow north of I-40 at times.
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I would feel decently good if I lived on the northern Plateau, in southwest Virginia, extreme NE TN, and SE KY. I agree with Boone that the firs system is likely to be rain for most, but some high elevation snow wouldn't surprise me. The first real chance is Feb 11 and then maybe alternating storms after that. We want to see(as others have noted) the first system to press the boundary south as it departs. Then, we want the second system to overrun the cold and trap it. This is less thread the needle and more timing. There aren't a ton of moving parts. This is 100% how far the cold presses after each storm. So, it is a little easier to track in my book. Still work to do, but 12z was a good step. I still think the very best that this pattern can hold is just at d16 now. Feb 20 to March 10 still looks ripe for the picking. If we can go phase 8 w/ this active STJ, somebody should score and maybe more than once.
