Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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February systems are notorious (infamous?) for under modeling precip amounts. One caveat as maybe Holston mentioned overnight, we are seeing some convection along the GOA. That will cause the spigot to be shut off. I think we are seeing variations of that in modeling. IF that convection wasn't there, we could see much more snow. That might actually be a nowcast once the event starts.
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Today or next week?
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The 12z GEPS has more snow than its deterministic run. With us still being 3 days out, there is room for this to get stronger - plenty of room
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The 12z Euro has less snow accumulation over E TN which has been a trend. Again, I think the Euro has been on the low side of modeling this winter. BTW, the WxBell clown map is in for almost the entire run while the 6 hr precip output map is lagging way behind. Again, I am riding w/ the GFS on this one. It has locked in pretty good.
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The 6z Euro AIFS has another slider on Sunday....decently robust.
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The GFS has more snow. Given that it is February, that makes more sense. The GDPS is a really a two part event - a slider and then upslope. Both almost get the same point on Kuchera snow maps, but....you gotta include the upslope even that slams into the area on very cold winds. With ratios likely being high for the upslope event...wouldn't surprise me if the upslope produces better than the actual storm.
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Significant upticks for NE TN on the 12z GDPS. NE TN, which has been on the short end of the stick for the past few winters, is being depicted with a solid 4-6" of snow. We take that all day long. The 12z GFS is a healthy event.
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For E TN, it is REALLY important to get the piece of energy which crashes into the back of this. If you cut off the accumulation maps right after the storm passes, it is missing the northwest flow event which follows immediately after.
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12z GFS is a solid 4-6" for NE TN. The NAM is not in range. It is going to be crazy jacked up which is why it has a Miller B. I think the GFS has it in its wheelhouse now. It is not budging from run to run. The Euro has tended to be a bit to weak on precip this winter.
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It looks bad. Scannerfood is posting some crazy images on FB. I hate you all are having to deal with this, man. Stay safe.
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18z GFS looks good.
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TT has rain in E TN but gets the same heavy snowfall maps as WxBell?
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Heads up. Pivot/Wx Bell look completely different than Tropical Tidbits......like "not even looking at the same storm" different. The WxBell GFS run looks awesome as does the Pivotal run. But the TT run is a rainer. Head scratcher!
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Foothills peeps are gonna like the 12z GFS.
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The clown maps on wxbell again do not match the surface maps which precede it. Head scratcher. The surface maps are absolutely ripping.
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12z GFS is a pretty big run.
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And the "thunder in the mountains" rule....It is just uncanny how well that works.
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I think the foothills are not done with snow yet. There is a decent upslope component with this system. There are also some upslope systems following.
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The 6z ICON is a nice pass for much of the forum area. Both the 6z GEFS and EPS ensembles bumped up.
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And I hate to reiterate too much, but this storm may be the beginning of a cold and stormy pattern of repetitive events. The MJO is flirting with stalling in the coldest phases through mid March.
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Brutal stuff given that we had record highs to start the month. Big flip. The difference between our max temp for the month and our min could be extreme. Some areas my flirt with 75-90 degree differences in those.
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Great observation.
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We best not miss the one right in front of us this weekend.... One last note in a flurry of posts, we could see some decent northwest flow Sunday evening through Sunday night and into Monday morning in favored areas. Winter temps are set to return.
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The 0z CMC would be awesome. Here are the four major global runs for 0z. It seems like we might be reaching some agreement. As the storm comes on shore, I suspect we see it get stronger, but I could be wrong. That is only a hunch. Please not the UKMET is 10:1 and not kuchera. I do pay a bit of attention to it as it caught the last system decaying more quickly than other models had it. This time...a bit stronger on this run. Snow could fall in eastern areas from Wednesday to Saturday morning. I think westslope folks score on the upslope which follows with that maxed out jet.
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The 0z Euro is a textbook track for big storms - an inland runner. As John noted earlier about another model(GFS?), there "should" be more precip to its northwest. Track was perfect.
