Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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For E TN, it is REALLY important to get the piece of energy which crashes into the back of this. If you cut off the accumulation maps right after the storm passes, it is missing the northwest flow event which follows immediately after.
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12z GFS is a solid 4-6" for NE TN. The NAM is not in range. It is going to be crazy jacked up which is why it has a Miller B. I think the GFS has it in its wheelhouse now. It is not budging from run to run. The Euro has tended to be a bit to weak on precip this winter.
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It looks bad. Scannerfood is posting some crazy images on FB. I hate you all are having to deal with this, man. Stay safe.
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18z GFS looks good.
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TT has rain in E TN but gets the same heavy snowfall maps as WxBell?
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Heads up. Pivot/Wx Bell look completely different than Tropical Tidbits......like "not even looking at the same storm" different. The WxBell GFS run looks awesome as does the Pivotal run. But the TT run is a rainer. Head scratcher!
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Foothills peeps are gonna like the 12z GFS.
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The clown maps on wxbell again do not match the surface maps which precede it. Head scratcher. The surface maps are absolutely ripping.
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12z GFS is a pretty big run.
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And the "thunder in the mountains" rule....It is just uncanny how well that works.
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I think the foothills are not done with snow yet. There is a decent upslope component with this system. There are also some upslope systems following.
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The 6z ICON is a nice pass for much of the forum area. Both the 6z GEFS and EPS ensembles bumped up.
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And I hate to reiterate too much, but this storm may be the beginning of a cold and stormy pattern of repetitive events. The MJO is flirting with stalling in the coldest phases through mid March.
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Brutal stuff given that we had record highs to start the month. Big flip. The difference between our max temp for the month and our min could be extreme. Some areas my flirt with 75-90 degree differences in those.
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Great observation.
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We best not miss the one right in front of us this weekend.... One last note in a flurry of posts, we could see some decent northwest flow Sunday evening through Sunday night and into Monday morning in favored areas. Winter temps are set to return.
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The 0z CMC would be awesome. Here are the four major global runs for 0z. It seems like we might be reaching some agreement. As the storm comes on shore, I suspect we see it get stronger, but I could be wrong. That is only a hunch. Please not the UKMET is 10:1 and not kuchera. I do pay a bit of attention to it as it caught the last system decaying more quickly than other models had it. This time...a bit stronger on this run. Snow could fall in eastern areas from Wednesday to Saturday morning. I think westslope folks score on the upslope which follows with that maxed out jet.
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The 0z Euro is a textbook track for big storms - an inland runner. As John noted earlier about another model(GFS?), there "should" be more precip to its northwest. Track was perfect.
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The 0z Euro looks pretty similar to other runs - kind of ICON-ish. I do like the theme of the UKMET being more juiced as that fits Februarys where systems are often under modeled. A major them is a pretty big jet streak over the forum area as the system begins to churn. That should produce orographic lift for 48-72 hours after the storm passes on favored northwest slopes. Ratios would be high as temps will likely be frigid.
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0z UKMET is on the board as a decent storm.
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The other interesting thing is the CMC has trended northwest with each of its last four runs. The GFS and CMC aren't far apart in terms of clown maps. The GFS is trending southeast and the CMC is moving northwest. The ICON trended south. Looks to me like modeling is almost ready to cook....
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On the 500 vort maps, you can see the 0z GFS is right in line with other models(and it was faster to a point this run) up until it just holds the northern stream over the Plains in a way that doesn't make sense to me. The Canadian feeds the northern stream right in. BIG differences. IF the northern stream feeds in, this could be a really big storm. It will likely pull the storm back northwest just due to the strength of the storm alone. To me, I cautiously side with JB in saying the GFS might be holding back the northern stream a bit much...but I am not sold that it is wrong yet. But the CMC sure looks more sensible.
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Holy macaroni at the 0z Canadian. The 0z GFS sped up trailing energy a bit...if that trend continues that should be a bigger storm. So far, the Canadian has been pretty steady. Again, I don't share a foxhole with it, but I admire the consistency.
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MRX afternoon disco... We`ll get a break from the rain and snow chances for the first half of the week with drier air and more zonal flow in place. Certainty in the forecast begins to wane once we get to our next event with another round of more widespread and heavier snow looking possible. Another trough will be moving through the northern states around this time and really start to drop temperatures for the second half of the week. Increasing confidence that we`ll see some abnormally cold temperatures starting Thursday morning and continuing into the weekend. If the current forecast verifies we`ll likely see the return of teens or single digit temperatures on the coldest morning, likely Friday morning. Depending on the track of the trough/low we could see incoming precipitation at the same time that temperatures are falling leading to snowfall accumulations across the entire region, and possibly down into GA. Being this far out snowfall amounts are extremely uncertain, but seeing over 1 inch of snow across the central and northern valley is definitely not out of the question.
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With systems like these, JB noted that the GFS has a tendency/bias to try to hand off northern stream energy westward. He thinks that is why the GFS is weaker.
