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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    I always kind of enjoy watching shortwaves during spring, especially for the mountains. Back when I lived in JC, those little shortwaves could leave 1-2" of snow on northwest facing slopes. I think we get one more window for those somewhere during the last 2-3 weeks of March or early April.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Speaking of snow, I do think folks above 2500’ could see some snow Sat morning, maybe even some snow showers at lower. MRX mentioned light snow for higher elevations.
  3. Carvers Gap
    One thing about this forum, not every post after winter is over is about snow. For those of us having to sit through youth outdoor sporting events....that exact comment that I made -> matters. So yeah, it kind of does matter, and that is exactly why I made it. Could it snow? Sure. But anomalous cold during March and April is worth a discussion whether it snows or not. We keep this place moving year round. It isn't all about snow.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Have a feeling March 10-31 could be pretty cold. Euro Weeklies control was crazy cold this afternoon. It has been a pretty decent indicator of cold this winter. It was the first to catch the late Feb bust.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Think there was some bad data inputed into the model or just not explainable? The problem that I see is that the Euro Weeklies still look like they have the same cold bias (same exact setup) from mid-March to early April.....wondering if that is the same, false signal????
  6. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, bowling ball around 300 on the 18z GFS. That will actually work - rain for that solution, but a stalled or slow rolling bowling ball is a good solution.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Found it. 1992. @Daniel Boonelooks like another stalled (or close to it) slp along a sharp cold front. My apologies to everyone w/ this -> This was early May!!! LOL. Just having some fun. Most of the snow fell above 2000'. Mt Pisgah had 61" of snow. That is mind boggling, AND they dealt with mixing issues at times. I do know that Beauty Spot near Newport can get absolutely hammered during March. Again, sharp cold fronts can produce at times. Another great write-up... https://climate.ncsu.edu/blog/2017/05/remembering-the-surprise-spring-snow-in-may-1992/
  8. Carvers Gap
    I edited the Apps runner part...should read textbook Apps snowstorm. I liked snow, even then. But I have to admit, that maybe was a bit much given that my entire spring break was stuck in the house. And yes, the snow was a paste job. Man, 54"?!?!?! That is insane. Yeah, I don't remember the run-up to that storm even being remotely cold at all. It caught everyone off guard. There are a couple of Pisgah storms I am going to have to look up later. They were during the early 90s or late 80s. They may have been back-to-back. This spring kind of has that feel where a well-timed cold shot could cause some mischief. I wonder if we dig back through met records if we find an SSW lurking in the shadows of one or all of those storms.
  9. Carvers Gap
    This got shuffled to the previous page along w/ some other great content by forum posters(go back and read all of it). This is just kind of interesting from a hobby perspective. This is an early April winter storm that began w/ a slp in the Lakes (yep...a low in the Lakes), trailing cold front that hit the GOM, and a slp that climbed as an inland runner. Really, it is a textbook Apps snow storm that began as a wave along a strong cold front. That is one of the reasons that I watch strong cold fronts during spring.
  10. Carvers Gap
    This is one which actually rivals 93' but gets a little less press. This was my spring break in HS. We couldn't leave the house for the entire break - snowed in. Folks raised in E TN, E KY, and SW VA know to keep looking back over one shoulder. Now, I am in not forecasting this, but LR ext modeling is showing cold worthy of this type of storm. It can and does snow at lower elevations in many areas during March and sometimes April, though this is an extreme example. This is a great article about the storm.....It includes synoptical set-ups and photos. https://www.weather.gov/jkl/198704_snowstorm
  11. Carvers Gap
    I suspect we have at least one more storm thread, maybe two. I could be wrong, but let's see. I don't think we are out of the woods until the first week of April is over. Plenty of warm embedded, but very strong cold shots are also prevalent. Wavelengths are shortening, and bowling balls are showing up. The 12z Euro control shows the potential w/ two separate winter storms during March. The SSW is going to have to be reckoned with. Late March is nasty on LR ext modeling. It easily could be a mirage, but oof...
  12. Carvers Gap
    If forced to make an early call for next winter, I would go: Sept/Oct: Very hot and dry...w/ a flip to cold in either late Oct or early Nov Nov/Dec: Cold w/ chances for multiple winter storms Jan: Flip to warm...better chances further west in the forum one goes. Feb: Warm January is what I can't wrap my head around yet. It could be very cold and linger into early Feb. Some weak Nina analogs do that. At this point, I don't think we are fighting the QBO, but we will see (not a certainty yet). Or it could flip warm and never look back. We need to really be able to see the duration of this Nina. If we start moderate and move back to weak as the winer progresses, that is going to make this really, really complex. A weak ENSO state is almost always to our advantage. We might not have those answers until early summer at the earliest.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I think that has merit. My guess would be western North America and then maybe it slides eastward. There are still some big cold fronts showing up on the GFS. Usually when winter is over, you don't see those cold fronts on LR modeling. OTH, it may just be cold and rainy. The Euro weeklies have hinted at a second-week cold shot. There is definitely some warm weather in between those cold shots though.
  14. Carvers Gap
    January cold this winter (second half) was very predictable and fit seasonal norms to a T. Next winter, there is a A LOT going on. The strength of the Nina is going to be key. If it is moderate to strong...no dice for eastern areas. Some of our best winters are weak La Nina winters w/ a falling QBO. The QBO should at least be descending by next winter even if positive. The toughest thing about Nina winters is trying to sync cold w/ a weaker STJ. But who knows, sometimes winters can buck climatology. I think next winter has far more uncertainty. We are definitely in a base Nina state right now. I do expect the continent to be quite cold which means it will likely get very cold in eastern NA at some point.
  15. Carvers Gap
    And one last note, the TN Valley has always been home to extreme weather, especially flooding and drought. TVA has steadied that quite a bit, but it was rough prior to TVA. There have generally been wild swings in TN for at least the last 150 years. Our latitude is almost always problematic. We live in the subtropics and that is always important to remember.
  16. Carvers Gap
    7-10 days of winter is actually very normal for this area (not higher elevations). The record snow in Knoxville this year and record number of snow (4"+) w/ snow on the ground is telling. As for backloaded, it was close. If the storm had arrive about a week later, that would have been backloaded. Technically, it hit right in the middle of met winter. The main part of winter came during mid-January which is prime climatology. Many places at lower elevations are at or above snow norms. When we get a really severe cold outbreak like that, winter will often end - even if December. That has happened more times than I can count. The only surprise to me this winter was the anomalous slp in the GOA which brought the monster chinook to Canada during December. That probably delayed the cold about 1-2 weeks after Christmas. February has been warm, but the Nino really has collapsed, or is collapsing. Plus, we could still see more snow. We have about 4 more weeks where it can snow in the valleys(increasingly problematic w/ each passing week). I don't really see anything on the horizon right now, but there are some decent windows. As for predictability....it is always tough, but lean on ENSO and you will often be right. I learned that from our mets here.. I managed to get 3/3 for DJF temps last winter. This winter I have 2 out of 3 for DJM - Feb will obviously bust. That is far above what I am normally capable of in terms of temps. Normally, I am much, much worse than that. It really is a crapshoot. I share that to say that predictability has been not bad. Next winter is an entirely different animal in terms of predictability - going to see some seasonal busts next winter IMHO. One other surprise is that the mountains/foothills didn't get more snow, but....that may also get rectified at least for the mountains. There were some BIG late season snows in the mountains during the 90s. One thing to note, there were some El Nino winter analogs which were not good. Some were really good. This winter was kind of a mix of the two. So, really having a historic snowstorm for many areas equates to a good winter for me. I do think next winter will see continued bouts of severe cold, especially middle and west. The fact middle and west scored during a Nino is a HUGE bonus.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Tropical activity can definitely mute temps. I think we might see some early tropical activity, a lulll, and then a tropical activity to end the heat during.....mid-late October. I would guess Nov-Dec would be seasonal to BN for temps before the Jan-Feb torch next winter. Though, I will say that if Nina is weak....it could be colder. I am still a bit torn on next winter. The QBO may be set to drop during later winter.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS continues to get colder.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The second half of summer (or maybe all of it) and all of fall could have significantly above normal temps. In NE TN, drought can be excessive during La Niña. Sometimes middle and western areas will dodge that drought and get the opposite. Hot and dry as the summer progresses and into fall. As for spring, I think we see a Nino hangover with rainy and cloudy conditions for the first half of it w some sharp cold snaps - almost winter like at times. Depending on when the atmosphere responds to the likely Niña, will depend on when it flips to the furnace - could be May or could be late June or even early July. You will know it when u see it.
  20. Carvers Gap
    So you are saying that you don't like the cold rain ULL version? j/k LOL
  21. Carvers Gap
    Decent little leap year anafront on the 18z GFS. It has been flirting with that for several runs. The gfs has had some strong cold fronts during the past 4-6 runs of that model. Reminds me very much of models finding the Jan cold shot.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I want no part of severe wx. Very destructive to people's lives. I know many follow it, and I find no fault with that.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Maybe the first 9-10 days of March are warm, but sitting in the middle of week three on modeling (early week 2 of March) is a cold snap. Have to remember that February is a shortened month. 23 days on a Weeklies run can be fairly accurate - just speaking of longwave patterns. That fits w/ the MJO rotation above. This is one of these years where I just think winter is not quite done. I could easily be wrong. For those new to the area, March can be good. It just hasn't been lately. To me, it kind of equates to early December - it can be good but more often than not it isn't. The Weeklies have not been super reliable of late, but the progression makes sense. It is almost like the Feb pattern has been delayed a bit. And the 30 day map below is with the first 9 days warm.... Now, the NAO has been woefully hard to predict this winter, and it normally is. It often won't give a lot of lead time when it sets up. Can we get the elusive double block, and have it hook over the top? Maybe, but this winter this look has only verified 1 out of 3 times it has been shown at this range(which isn't terrible for week 3-4 modeling). But that is a winter pattern below. I don't think I need to say this but will. I am fully aware that we are fighting climatology with each, passing day. However, you just never know. Kind of have to watch cold snaps between March 7-15th which to me is the furthest we can really say climatology will allow a snowstorm in the valleys. At some point, we will have a snowy, spring pattern.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I think about the time we all think it is spring and are happy with the temps....gonna be some wicked cold temps. I can see a signal during week 4 which shows that, but during shoulder season, those cold shots can be a mirage. SSW cold dumps West and then heads eastward.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Masters of the Air has been really good. There was a 75% casualty rate for the 100th. 50% of our WW2 airmen never made it home. I cannot imagine getting into a plane, dealing w/ -40 to -60F temps, being shot at, maybe bailing out of a plane pulling crazy Gs, and then if you were lucky, limping home in a badly beat-up Fortress and changing gears mentally to exist in a place that had no idea what type of tempest you had been in just 4-5 hours earlier. Courage doesn't begin to describe what they did. I saw a guy pumping gas w/ a ww2 veteran license place last weekend. Just doing the math, he was probably 95+ years old. He looked every bit of it, but he pumped his own gas in his truck, hopped into the driver's seat, and sped off down the road...I couldn't keep up.
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