Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    17,402

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    We gonna run this back again next Saturday as well....0z GFS and Euro have a pronounced upslope event advertised???
  2. Carvers Gap
    I was thinking maybe around 2:00PM for TRI and also a friend of mine noted this as well. I would think Knoxville is a hair later than that - I hope so, because I have one commuting!!!!
  3. Carvers Gap
    I would be really surprised if you don't do halfway decent w/ this...good elevation and just the Plateau's ability to squeeze every, last drop from the atmosphere.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Pretty steady model runs by the RGEM. The 12z RGEM barely budged.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Probably just the 3k NAM and its elevation issues...but the 3k put 40+" in the Smokies. That is Sierra Nevada level stuff.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 0z RGEM is a decently marked increase. Shift west with short range models at 0z.
  7. Carvers Gap
    With that 10:1...could have bigger amounts?
  8. Carvers Gap
    Throw in some Eastman Bubble for good measure....
  9. Carvers Gap
    I am ready for some bouncy corn.
  10. Carvers Gap
    If it can get to Roan Mountain State Park…I may drive.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Anybody have a GoogleAI update? My new washer is hurting my wx model slush fund.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I hate ULL setups. They (edit)can be really, really good or really, really bad. Pretty much Tennessee basketball this year…
  13. Carvers Gap
    You are gonna need to share some of that plume.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I hope the narrative is this…Carvers was really slow to get on board with the best snow we have had in years. LOL. I am still not on board, and might not be until I see the whites if it’s eyes! Haha.
  15. Carvers Gap
    My go-to models most winters are the RGEM and Euro at this range. The AIFS is part of that club now.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Good run. Good model to have a good run with.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I think somehow the Plateau finds its way to 3-4" this weekend either with upslope or initial orographic lift w/ the main wave of precip.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Reminds me of 17-18 at the end of December. JB mentioned that the last half of February might have a strong STJ component along w/ cold. I tend to agree with him though I haven't looked at the Weeklies today. I kind of think nickel and dime stuff is the rule for right now. It is crazy cold with low wind chills outside right now. I really don't even want to think about the weekend cold!
  19. Carvers Gap
    That looks reasonable, but I would still cut maybe 50% of my totals in western Sullivan Co. I think the mountains are gonna get hammered due to orographic lift. Anywhere w/ good NW facing slopes could score. This "should" wring out every, last drop. Bitterly cold air masses have held surprises in NE TN. I don't like the 18z GFS trends, but the 18z RGEM looks reasonable. Anyone know when these vortices and air masses are over NA where they get sampled better? I think Tellico noted we would see one last truncation w/ that. I agree.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Knoxville has been beating us pretty badly of late - way more during the past 4-5 years. This current pattern is definitely a pattern we can score with in NE TN. No idea if that actually happens. I just don't like the dynamics w/ this current setup. I have been burned both ways - it over performing or under performing. A strong low on a cold front is notoriously tough to forecast. The partial phase I don't think is worked out quite yet. But I do agree...a strong ULL crashing into NE TN will often produce light snow regardless of setup...the bigger amounts I don't trust. Lighter amounts appear probable.
  21. Carvers Gap
    I would guess you are good, and fair point. Some of this is homegrown dynamics w/ the ULL. However, the runs w/ the big amounts appear to be grabbing an Atlantic fetch. I am beyond skeptical of that.
  22. Carvers Gap
    We could score…I just am not sold on this set up. And I freely admit I have been wrong and will be wrong again. Hopefully, we score!
  23. Carvers Gap
    Like a B movie. It is the first model to roll and nothing else is showing.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEM-para illustrates the concern pretty well. It has light snow, but that is about it. It did well with the last system. Generally, I have tossed the GFS in my thinking. It was badly wrong w/ the last system over NE TN. The GEM-para was very good.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The risk w/ this is the snow cuts off right at the spine of the Apps.
×
×
  • Create New...