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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    We definitely make our own weather. But there are a lot of micro climates as well. Holston's Sullivan abode is probably about 100 yards from my parents. (We have never met that I know of...small world though) I am a bit up the hill. On Friday's they test their stuff. Things shake. LOL. That looks like an industrial release. My original thought was aircraft chaff, but we really don't have a lot of that activity here. Plus, that looks like it is coming from a singular, stationary point. Make me think waste treatment which is about where that plume is. Ya'll, if I am missing for a few days, you know the black helicopters have shown up. @1234 probably lives about 6-7 miles as a crow flies. Honestly, there are several Kingsport posters - I won't name all of them. I met @kvskelton(by chance)once when he was surveying in my neighborhood!
  2. Carvers Gap
    I updated that post...you can read the rest of it. LOL. It may just be confluence. It does tend to happen there, but normally it is on the other side of the mountain. Options would be open pit, new gas furnace, hydro demotion, or their waste water treatment plant. But it is right on top of it if I am reading that map correctly. Again, they make stuff that keeps us all safe and gets dropped from planes during shock and awe.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Under that spot is one of our nation's national defense plants. We make a lot of "stuff" here in KPT - chemicals, paper, and things which cannot be named or people show up at your house. Sometimes it can get a little sideways. LOL
  4. Carvers Gap
    That is where that weird little confluence sets up though.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Bravo Alpha Epsilon? Was the hydro demolition going or maybe it was some sort of release? Were they burning in the pit?
  6. Carvers Gap
    It rarely fails us....thunder in the mountains. Just a wild rule that is probably more accurate than most weather models. Congratulations to everyone seeing snow. Pics or it didn't happen! LOL.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Somebody is gonna have to post some snow photos so those of us getting the liquid variety can live vicariously.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The Euro control weeklies lower the boom for the first week of March - SSW special right there.
  9. Carvers Gap
    @Daniel Boone The ensemble looks to me like week 3 is warm. Week 4 is quite cold(maybe colder). Honestly, week 3 for middle and E TN look pretty similar. The Plains during week 3 are warm...just a quick glance on my part.
  10. Carvers Gap
    And this current SSW should show up around early March. We have the mid Jan SSW which should be now, but maybe went to Asia. It is also possible that modeling is now correcting to the Jan SSW event. Tough to know. I am very cautiously optimistic that modeling is trending colder....sitting on a razors edge though. Super warm pattern if the NAO doesn’t show.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Modeling is also picking up on 1-2 pretty severe cold shots in March. Let's see where this goes tomorrow. For now, we have winter wx advisories posted. If we end up getting snow, someone needs to open up a thread for the winter wx advisory.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Almost every system on the GFS has some frozen precip over portions of the forum area.
  13. Carvers Gap
    So, the GFS has a pretty major cold outbreak around the 23-27th or so. It actually looks great right before this, but this is a big time look. NAO, PNA/EPO, undercutting of the western ridge, PV trapped under the couplet highs which are almost hooked over the top, low in the Aleutians. That is a cold, stormy signal. Remember how we have noted that modeling has a really hard time modeling the NAO, but when it gets it.....you see this. I don't know if this is a trend. For now, it is a two-run trend(12z and 18). It could end up flipping right back. But...the operational GFS is pretty renowned for catching trends early.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS looks actually colder than 12z. It looks like winter. I feel like I have lived this sequence once already this winter? There is also another potential winter system around the 23rd.....
  15. Carvers Gap
    Thunder in the mountains!
  16. Carvers Gap
    We got a wooly worm substitute and an elk substitute(very cool BTW). We have winter wx advisories up for norther middle and west TN , and are tracking a slider on the 17th on the Euro. And the GFS is cold.... Honestly, this is what the Weeklies were advertising for weeks before losing them. This is probably a "light" version, but interesting to see it work out.
  17. Carvers Gap
    The cold front is right on time. What is crazy is that this was a cold/snow time frame for weeks, and frozen precip was lost about ten days ago(roughly IDK). Now, it is back. Feb 13-14 has been the pattern switch for a while. Hopefully, some folks will get a quick thump. The 12z GFS on cue has now three fairly strong cold fronts throughout its run. It is anything but wall-to-wall warm. I'll have to look but 10+ days of that might be BN.
  18. Carvers Gap
    When the Canadian starts to produce real feel temps like this, it is probably at least worth passing attention. There is probably some bias in play here, but the Canadian can sometimes spot colder air masses before the GFS. If this is legit, it could snow deep into South Carolina and even the Panhandle. I don't think it does, but this solution would allow for it.
  19. Carvers Gap
    One thing which keeps my attention(rightly or wrongly), the warm-up from Jan 21 to now was originally forecast to be just a 3-4 day warm-up. It missed the MJO rotation into the warm phases, and the supposed hiccup of a warm spell lasted for weeks. There is part of me that wonders if that is happening right now, except the cold pattern continues longer than forecast. Modeling has been guilty all season of perpetuating a pattern and missing the turn. Now, I think there is good evidence that the warm MJO wins, but I don't think it is a slam dunk. MjO plots this morning tended to go COD in the colder phases, and that is something to watch in terms of trends. Now, I think warm-ups are inevitable...spring is going to fight this. But when I look at the 12z CMC driving single digits and low teens into the region, I do wonder if modeling is under estimating the embedded cold shots.....
  20. Carvers Gap
    ...and we are now left to fight inevitable spring with only the power of the one tone, wooly worm.
  21. Carvers Gap
    I know Cosgrove has mentioned that analogs point towards a warm spring w/ El Nino collapsing. This is also the time of year (shoulder season) where LR modeling will sometimes struggle mightily. All of that said, spring is not looking warm on LR ext or seasonal modeling. However, summer is looking very warm - meaning above normal. Given the performance of recent LR modeling and analog packages, I would say pretty everything is on the table for spring. I do think mid-late summer and most of fall will be hot/dry, maybe brutally hot if Nina kicks in.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Oddly, the 14th has been the day that we have looked at for a pattern change. To be clear, I don't think the new pattern is going to be all that great for snowfall in the valleys, but this would be a decent score for LR ext modeling. Of note, snowfall in forecasting is incredibly difficult to predict at range. Even when I do my "just for fun" seasonal modeling, I make a guess at snowfall...but it is like throwing darts while blindfolded. So beware, it can snow during a warm pattern. Here are the 12z outputs from meso scale modeling for the upcoming 14ths system. Nighttime is best option. I would not be surprised to see some folks in the forum area score if they catch this at night. This is probably a tougher sell for E TN unless you live near a break in the Plateau where moisture can slip through. Middle and west TN folks have a potentially minor or lollipop event to track. The ARW is not out yet, and it was bullish at 0z. I will add it here once it is completed. That map Tellico had this winter was really good about "flyways" for moisture entering the eastern valley. I was reading about a similar set-up around the Grand Tetons. I have always wondered why Jackson, WY, got so much less than Moran and Alpine. Those last two areas live near breaks in that mountain range.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Choose your own adventure book on CPC MJO plots this morning. The GEFS now takes a full rotation through the cold phases. The Euro does not. I like the 6z GEFS....it has a cold front on the 14th, 17th, and 25th. They don't have a lot of staying power, but that fits the wild MJO look. That MJO look should support a very transient pattern. I would lean base warm, simply because the warm days will likely be warmer against the norms than the cold days. As noted earlier, to score at this point we are looking for a well placed storm which would be timed to hit one of those cold shots. It would not surprise me to see snow showers next weekend. The storm for the 17-18th is not there. I am 50/50 on whether it returns. It is kind of in that window where storms are often lost. As for the 14th system, American modeling still has a pretty good thump for west TN as well portions of middle. The 3k NAM and 12k NAM both have rates driven snow which is crazy hard to predict. It would not surprise me to see some decent lollipops along the TN/KY border (middle and west). if American modeling is correct. As the 12z rolls in there are some pretty big differences between the 3k and 12k NAM. I am guessing modeling is struggling w/ rates driven stuff. It looks like the NAM favors a changeover in middle(and that is also nighttime which makes sense). The 12z changes over earlier in west TN. Whoever gets this system at night has the advantage. The Plateau may score some accumulation if the 3k is correct
  24. Carvers Gap
    18z Euro tried to get interesting as well for the Plateau. Holston went out and found a snowstorm to track.
  25. Carvers Gap
    ARW is in as well. Crazy stuff. I have my doubts that feedback is going on....but big totals like that are not unusual for a Feb snowstorm. Models often underestimate QPF. Wild.
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