Carvers Gap

If you just need to live vicariously....The Broncos vs Patriots game has gone from sunshine to near blizzard conditions. The cold is here for a bit!

But declaring a winter a dud on Jan 25 is JI worthy, especially with a winter storm in progress. LOL.

Yeah, man. I agree. While 2/3 of the forum is currently under a winter storm warning...not the time to be calling winter a dud. Just ride the wave.

Winter isn't over.

Thursday and the weekend have to be watched.

The 6z GFS is one small system after another…lots of NW flow. Prob favors NW flow areas, but I would assume there are some chances as Feb climatology will fight the dry pattern IMHO.

It is possible, but unlikely in February IMHO. I mean, we are in the middle of an ice storm right now w/ rain in the East. I suspect we see several, small northern stream systems. No model is gonna have details correct outside of 7 days...just generally a 500 pattern. Cosgrove things another storm in the south next weekend is possible. He says the cold and stormy pattern continues. He is batting a thousand right now. This current storm moved the precip line almost 500 miles in three model runs.

West of I-81 in TRI...we need temps to get above freezing ASAP. Lots of ice building up w/ a steady train of more precip inbound.

0.1-0.15 ice accretion so far. Trees are glistening and well as the power lines.

The 12z ensembles(EPS, GEPS) and 18z ensembles(AIFS-EPS, GEFS) all have a trough over the east for most of their runs with maybe a 2-3 respite. The Euro Weeklies continue that pattern well into February and maybe even early March. The MJO-CPC is basically stalled in cold phases through mid-Feb when those runs end. It looks likely that our cold and wintry pattern continues for a time - no guarantees. IF that verifies, we all may be ready for spring when it finally arrives.

ZR w/ glaze on pretty much everything.

We have picked up .75-1" of snow IMBY. That is already at or well ahead of what any model(not named the GFS) consistently showed. Right now our winds are out of the NE at 7mp which is exactly where they should be coming from w/ that high over the top. The cold is getting reinforced at lower levels. CAD on this side of the mountain for all intents and purposes. I feel certain it gets scoured out...but some areas may fight that changeover longer than others.

Meaning cooler?

Moderate snow in Kingsport. Ground is white.

Incredible. 8 degrees below guidance now?

What I looked at has generally been two waves. The GFS has a constant stream of moisture on a few of its runs. Most other models...There is the lead out wave, and then whatever forms in Texas.

I didn't notice that...Thanks. I assumed the time stamps was still 12z when I switched from the other 12z models.

Whichever model had the snow line furthest south...wins the first few hours. Light snow IMBY w/ some intensity to go with it. Dusting.

12z....I like Thursday for a light snow event w/ the incoming front then. The 0z GEM-para, which has been good, has it as does the 12z Euro.

Thanks. Just trying to get an idea of what is upstream of me.

That lower than expected?

Light snow falling here. I can see the cloud deck dropping on Bays Mountain.

I broke down and looked at the MJO. Turns out, it is forecast to park itself in 8-1-2-3 through at least late January. It is in 6 right now - major winter storm in phase 6. File that one away for safe keeping. The Euro weeklies have a trough in eastern NA for Feb. Monster NAO block. EPO ridge....for most of February. Temps 7-9 degrees BN or Feb. Precip is listed as BN - good luck with that during Feb. If that verifies, that is a much different February than we have been used to of late. It fits w/ the weak La Nina and negative QBO analogs. Can we go 14-15...IDK? But 95-96 2.00-light would suffice.

Of note above from MRX regarding NE TN...Carter and Unicoi counties have been added to the WSW.

@fountainguy97 National Weather Service Morristown TN 816 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 813 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 - Tonight will remain dry with seasonally cool temperatures. - A significant winter storm will impact the region, primarily Saturday PM through Saturday night. All types of precipitation (rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow) are expected. - The heaviest snow and sleet accumulations (around 3 inches or locally higher) are most likely along the Tennessee/Kentucky state line and into southwest Virginia. The heaviest ice accumulations (over 0.25 inches) are most likely along the Cumberland Plateau/southern plateau, central and northeast East Tennessee, and just north of Interstate 40/81. Snow accumulations will be more limited further south with ice accumulations more uncertain along the foothills and southern Valley. - High winds expected across the foothills of the mountains and ridge tops on Saturday night into Sunday. - Extreme cold temperatures are expected Monday into Tuesday with highs well below freezing and overnight lows approaching or falling below 0. Lower wind chills are expected. && .UPDATE... Issued at 813 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 Based on the latest model data and recent trends, Unicoi, Carter, and Johnson Counties have been added into the Winter Storm Warning. The better snow accumulations, nearing 2 inches or more, look to be in Johnson County. All counties look to see ice accumulations at or above 0.25 inches in some portion of them. This is less confident in places like Elizabethton and Hampton due to local downsloping effects, but other portions of Carter County are expected to see more significant ice accumulations. This also better matches up with places to our south and east.