Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Usually when we score in E TN, it’s not waiting on redevelopment. That is fools gold all too often. But we can score with a ULL or inverted trough. The trailer is the key, and I hate tracking storms with trailing energy which is the driver.
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The CMC is maybe what I would call a clean pass. The Euro and GFS depend on trailing energy to get totals. The Euro uses trailing energy from the south. The GFS is using a ULL from northwest flo. Very complicated setup and some of those totals are reached in vastly different ways. It makes it look like a Miller A, but only one model has it. The rest requires redevelopment over E TN.
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The 18z GFS represents a suppressed path due to the strong cold front. Now, I don't know this for sure....but this is February and not January. If that system comes up the coast and doesn't slide OTS....it should track back to the northwest. I really don't like the trailing energy piece. I am not even sure if that is real - 50/50 either way on that one. For now, the energy arrives too late and we see simply light snow. If that energy speeds up and catches the front runner, it could change dramatically. Either way, models have gone from one cutter after another to a very suppressed solution.
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The 12z CMC shows the trailing energy scenario really well. BTW, if you all want to put some severe wx stuff in here, have at it. I haven't followed the Saturday stuff. I live in NE TN, and we get a lot less severe weather up here. Now, we do get some...but just less. How bad does the severe threat look for Saturday?
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I agree with John. The 12z Euro was oh so close to a huge storm. Modeling is having a lot of difficulty with a trailing system being involved. I have waited for trailing system snow(picture the gif with the bones) for hours, and it never got here. Until that gets worked out, we can see anything from a skiff to a HECS on modeling. LOL. If that trailer comes in too late, the storm goes to the Carolinas. If it gets here too early, the storm cuts. If it all consolidates(which looks less likely today), then we get a big storm. I haven't posted much today, because there are only weak trends towards less consolidation. But having done this for a long time, sometimes that energy will consolidate at the last minute... Plus, we are in the window where big storms get lost.
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As Holston noted, they have you covered. Five active threads going right now...flooding, pattern thread, obs, banter, and severe.
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Snowfall totals on WxBell don't match the 12z run....somethin' ain't right with that run.
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The 12z Euro has finally run...it looked good. Obligatory -> TIFWIW
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Uh oh.
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In all seriousness, is that a suite wide issue or just unique to the Euro?
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Crap. It is gonna throw out 4-5 ft of snow, and we are gonna have to toss it. LOL. For everyone else so I don't have to post this in two posts. Here are the clown maps for the 12z CMC and GFS. They both get the job done...just slightly differently. The GFS was crazy close to its 0z run. I think modeling is potentially sniffing out a big storm. Where it goes is what everyone is here for! LOL. As they say in the real estate business, "Location, location, location."
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Is the Euro running late? Anyway, the 6z EURO AIFS shows my concern. The system is suppressed by cold, and falls apart after this as it moves eastward. Notice the high over the Lakes (not the hated @TellicoWxGL low!) That would be a slider and a bit strung out. That is probably a forum wide 2-3" snow event. The 12z CMC consolidates the energy and runs that boundary between cold and warm in the Piedomont. It smashes the eastern 2/3 of the state.
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For really big storms, I tend to like late season, Arctic air masses crashing south eastward and a slp riding that frontal boundary. We are flirting with that, but I wouldn't say we are ready to go to the dance just yet. Right now, the boundary is more east west. So, the cold "could" slide along over the top of the Gulf system. If the cold gets there quicker -> suppressed. If it is late -> cuts. If it is right on time -> Boomer Sooner. This air mass next week is gonna be cold. Just need for timing to work out, and the STJ not to get strung out.
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Man, there is some crazy cold air barreling down the Plains next week unlike this current week. The 12z CMC, UKMET, ICON have the cold air crashing into the system. The 12z GFS holds a monster high just a hair to the west of other modeling, and then gets convoluted with a two step storm. My main concern for I-40 of E TN and NE TN is a suppressed system. Some recent model runs have been bangers. The ones where our area doesn't get snow is if the storm cuts(then the trailer forms closer to the coast) OR if the system is suppressed. Cold air gets into place on Sunday, and then a bigger shot(the aforementioned cold) rolls in with the storm. Timing TBD. The source region for this storm could be Arctic in nature if it can get here in time. I am concerned the cold air squashes this thing. It may cut, but the cold is strong. For it to cut, the cold would have to be slower and Gulf system faster. IMHO of course.
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For real....I am not dying on the ICON hill! I agree. LOL The GFS, CMC, and ICON have multiple waves rolling along a gradient boundary which stretches east to west is a great recipe for snow, provided cold is involved and timed correctly. Basically, take this week...and shift it south over the forum area. This is a battle royal between the SER and polar/Arctic air masses.
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This setup could deliver multiple storms IF the gradient sets up just right(story of our lives). Lots of cold and STJ interaction.
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And I agree, we want this south of us for a day or two more. February storms tend to crank and overperform. The Canadian and ICON are in good spots, but do we trust them? IDK on that either. For now, it looks like a setup for a bigger storm IF energy can consolidate IMHO.
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Usually when my backyard is involved, that trailing energy slides right through western North Carolina...seems to often be well east of what is modeled, even as the event is under way.
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The 10:1 ratios have more snow which tells me this is the higher water content snow. Both the GFS and the CMC unload on the Plateau and E TN. The ICON would have been a light to moderate event.
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The GFS, and other models to some extent, are trying to workout the details w/ a trailing piece of energy. Does it phase, remain separate, or something else? IDK and I don't think modeling does at this point. I am not a huge fan of waiting on trailing energy in the eastern valley. That doesn't work out more times than not. However, a more consolidated piece of energy could look a lot like the Canadian. I am leaning Canadian, but more because I am "glass half full" with this storm. This window has the potential to really create a big storm. There is really cold air which crashes into the northwest side of the storm. That is the recipe for a significant storm. This is still a complex situation (sounding like MRX now), so stay tuned.
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The 12z CMC is straight up rocking. Man.
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The 18z GEFS has a 5-6” snow mean over NE TN. That is usually a good sign for TRI and anybody remotely close.
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It appears the 18z GFS has found some cold air. 50 degrees colder in the SE in some places when compared to the last 12z run. Nice slider.
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The 18z GFS is about to bring it.
