Carvers Gap

Nice run for the forum all things considered w/ room to come north a bit....good run for NC as well. What time is the AIFS rolling?

I will take that 18z GFS look over the "cold gets hung up on the Plateau" look. But I highly doubt it is right. I like the idea of a big hp, but that model has been over-amping things all winter. It does hold the big high back by about 200-300 miles and let's some moisture get north. That seems plausible.

I think that big hp blocks it???

I agree w/ @TellicoWx...the hp is gonna tell this story. On the Euro AIFS at 12z, that hp was in the 1030s. The Euro was in the 1040s. I bet the HP was a bit stronger on the EURO AIFS EPS. The 18z GFS has a monster high, and I bet that feature is over cooked.

That is about where we want it and w/ the trend that we want...slight nudge north. I don't think we want a 1050+ hp over the top. 1040s will do. Either way, that is a winter storm over the mid and upper south.

Big 1051 high sitting in Minnessota as this rolls in at 135. I a warm nose can defeat that, then I give up. Haha. Not saying that 1051 is real BTW.

Should be big.

At 117, is that a 1050 hp in southern Canada?!

I gotta think the 18z GFS is gonna be more north on this run just based on where it is w/ Weds's look.

Just for January...How has Euro verification faired in comparison to the Euro AIFS? I feel like the Euro did well w/ the system along the coast today. It locked on a more coastal solution and didn't budge despite the more amped GFS. Also, where can I find verification scores? I can never find it...even with Google! The Euro is almost always tougher mid-winter.

Yeah, he is about to post a dub for his seasonal forecast...went against most seasonals w/ a strong analog package and called the late January/early Feb storm track back in Oct/Nov. Just so I don't have to post twice(not that it stops me! LOL), here is where the 12z AIFS ends up. Weak comma head w/ a deepening coastal. I bet the 96 system looked a lot like this. I noticed that the flow backed a bit at the end of that first storm.

Think it was its usual bias of holding back energy?

And this would be the concern. Winter storm w/ ice followed by this...

Just an aside...the Euro Weeklies keep winter ongoing through Feb w/ a break between maybe Feb2-7th. Cosgrove said last night that the pattern may not break fully until the first week of March.

The @AMZ8990ice storm....this looks like it could be a redux of that bad storm you all had. Just not sure about E TN yet. What year was that, @AMZ8990? Temps were in the teens while freezing rain and sleet were falling.

As I have stated prior, the Jan 96 snows were wild. Knoxville would get lots of ice/snow. TRI just got slammed w/ heavy snow. It was wild driving home. @Holston_River_Ramblerand I were talking about that in this thread. I would see 4-5" of snow until around mile marker ~45 on I81. Then, it just started getting deeper. Knoxville's roads that winter were terrible. Knox Co ran out of snow days by quite a bit. I would guess areas of TRI got 30-40" of snow with those two storms. I will add...this gradient is most assuredly going to wobble north/south on modeling, and maybe right up to the event. Very tough to nail that down boundary. Cold has been over-modeled recently. I would guess the southern solutions do not verify. I would also guess someone in this forum is going to have frozen precip falling into temps which are in the teens...west TN would be my first pick. E TN is a toss-up, but ensembles really like snow/ice in E TN as well.

Yep. Legit scenario. With the 1040+ hp over the top...that gives me a bit more hope than normal for snow. But.... Very concerned about ice w/ that scenario. Textbook ice setup, and models wouldn't catch that until it was under way IMHO. That high would keep funneling low level cold down the valley as rain goes over the top...and up the valley. Basically(and I know you know this...but kicking around the idea), the cold wraps clockwise around an incoming hp over the western Mid-West. Then, the cold hits the Apps and funnels south. The scenarios where we get snow...cold is right over the top. The scenarios w/ the warm nose...the cold lags. But with both scenarios...the cold eventually catches up. The Euro AIFS EPS was very bullish on snow w/ many members as snow. I am leaning towards cold winning the day, but am not sold on it. So, I definitely like hearing the other side of the coin.

Day 6-10 CPC analogs: 20240118 20030123 20110113 20210210 20070207 19960202 20030114 20140208 20100130 20170204 Day 8-14 CPC analogs: 20030125 20160211 20160117 20100215 19950205 20030112 20070213 19950128 19960211 20060209

Back in the days of the NOGAPS and CPC being our only internet wx sources....you just had to use your imagination.

Agree for sure. The only thing that gives me pause is this past week looked great...and it went poof quickly. I would say I am cautiously optimistic for a winter storm....but ice is no bueno IMBY. And maybe these extra flights are helping some...IDK.

With the notable exception of the GDPS para(I called it the GEM para...same), most deterministic runs of this event have precip falling into temps which range from the low teens to lower 20s. The GEM para has temps in E TN only in the mid 30s, even w/ downlsope/warm nose/ etc. The 12z EPS manages to get cold air in place prior to the event. The 12z GEFS has a bit of a warm nose, but as soon as precip starts...the front crashes into the STJ. The GEPS is somewhere in between. Ensemble temps are mid20s to mid30s. The key will be getting a big high over the top(1040s are good) which feeds the north side of any potential STJ pulse.

The 12z EPS(normally very conservative and known as the ultimate Dr No) has this...big high over the top and active STJ. Definitely an eye opener from an ensemble at 150. By Tuesday evening, short range models should have this. Some streamers on the EPS arrive on Friday and the last does not depart E TN until Monday.

I think the 12z GEM para is very plausible as well and fits recent Nina climatology like a glove. This would be the northern side of modeling so far.

Definitely don't want to lose power with a potential Arctic front barreling down the Plains a few days later. I am sure the NWS will give this about 48 hours for modeling to get this into focus...and then put out the word. Still a lot of uncertainty right now.

I think initially, we want it suppressed at this range. The cold which pushes after this could be strong. I want to get this within about four days. I could still see this really surging warmth into the TN Valley if something cuts. I can definitely see a scenario where something cuts, draws cold down, and the second wave is snow/ice. But the slider scenario is plausible. For whatever reason, modeling this winter has found a way to be universally wrong from suite to suite. So, I expect a jog north...well north of the GFS as nearly all of the GEFS members are north of the deterministic. But the 12z GFS deterministic is almost to a range it can be trusted, but not quite yet. Fun discussion, but those tracks are gonna move some at this range for sure. I don't want ice either. Ensemble packages look good though at 12z.