Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Wise statement.
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Analysis on the iPhone is about impossible. Looks like it sent out a good portion with the first wave which has been flatter on most models. It stays flat. Second wave was weake…almost had to stay flat. Hp perfectly positioned and didn’t slide in behind the second system that I can see. Most times the energy which is held back is stronger…but not always. Seeing it jog south is interesting.
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I will never say anything bad about the GFS again if that comes to fruition. My man is not giving up without a fight.
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Triples down.
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Weaker hp in the 18z GFS. Yet somehow it manages to be south of 12z. Did it send more energy out on the first wave?
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I am posting Weeklies maps for weeks 3-6. EPO ridge. NAO block. AN heights over Alaska. Are we watching winter hit and hold in the East? Maybe so. When you go back and look at -QBOs, you will quite regularly find some excellent winters. If this map holds, winter is just getting started. The Euro mean buries the forum. Precip is normal over E TN. There will be some talk that this is a Nino pattern. I don't think so. The core of BN temps is over the NE/MA and not SE. Don't use up all of your mental fuel with this weekend...we may have to pace ourselves this winter. January is well on track to now finishing BN or temps. Take a look at the 12z GEM-para if you have it....
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I am just glad it wasn't me who said it, because I certainly thought it!!!!!
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I am glad to know that when I travel by air from the West Coast, it isn't just me who gets delayed. Haha. Funny...not funny!
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Thanks, Coach. When you loop that exact map, you can see the cold just hitting the west side of the Apps and draining into our area.
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The 18z NAM is colder as well. If you switch to run-2-run for temp changes...you can see the cold actually rotate down in front of the high and into the front side of the incoming storm. Starts about hour 36. You can see it warmup over the top of the storm as in rolls across the US.
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And any snow cover may make it difficult to get those temps above freezing. Yes...I had just posted the same thing. Good catch.
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I would strongly suggest you all also use the ensembles. They have some interesting things embedded...a bit more snow. The 12z EPS shifted the snow axis about 1.5 counties south. The beginning of the Euro was also colder...sometimes the beginning of the scenario is more accurate due to it being closer in time...if it continues to cool and move precip southward near the start time in Texarkana...could be a sign the model is adjusting on the fly. We have seen that entry point into our forum change like that....and it has big implications down stream. I think for NE TN, we see 2-3" of snow followed by ice...know your microclimate. Also, interestingly....models are not showing a lot of mercy to the foothills regions w/ downslope.
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Maybe.
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Welp. Guess we are now tracking an ice storm.
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At 80, the Euro has 39 at TRI and 16 in NW Tenn....Similar to recent La Nina storms.
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Guessing run out moisture followed by a low which cuts just based on temps....I can see those pretty far out into the run on WxBell. Just toggle over.
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Gonna almost assuredly cut...but was much cooler to start that run. Pretty big change in temp prior to roughly 65 hours - as in lower over the entire eastern half of the country.
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Hmmm.
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WSW posted now for all of Tennessee.
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Yeah, I'll jump over in the long term thread in a bit to discuss. I have to go get my run in!
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The 12z UKMET is two waves as well. First wave is winter. Second wave is a cutter.
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Nothing quite like thunderstorms falling into temps which are below freezing over North Carolina.
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@Daniel Boone....take a look at the GFS and you can see the consequences of a stronger system this weekend. Give me some of that d10 GFS.
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Not sure there will be a ton of snowpack. It will depend on that first wave. If the first wave can deliver, many of us will see some snow before the ice. But for now(and I mean this exact moment at 11:44AM on Jan21), ice is the story IMHO. When you first watch the GEM, it looks remarkably similar to the GFS. The second wave is where they differ. As Jeff noted, reality is probable somewhere in the middle between the GEM and GFS.
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12z GEM and GFS maps.
