Carvers Gap

@John1122, heavy snow warnings for the summits of Mono Co. John, who is it that you follow in Mammoth Lakes?

Powell is coming out of hibernation. Can someone unlock his account for him?

Some hints this amplified pattern flips very cold sometime in the next 3-4 weeks. Amplified patterns this early usually flip our way at some point. But I absolutely hate summer during October - just despise it.

We have a long way to go with seasonal forecast models. I honestly think human forecasters can hand develop seasonal forecasts which have equal or better accuracy, albeit with some AI help. For now, there is just too much for modeling to juggle. There is some rigor with seasonal modeling which is released at the beginning of each season, i.e. winter forecasts which are released at the end of November are an example of this. Right now, ENSO is incredibly hard to predict at range. Since so many models, as you and John note, are based heavily on ENSO....they swing w/ those ENSO forecasts. Honestly, it is probably the right way to build a model, but again...way too many other things to juggle. As Mr Bob notes, each year is its own analog. Until we have mathematics which can predict chaos at range, there are going to be limits to the power of AI modeling. A computer can easily beat a human in chess. But...climate/weather at the 9-12 month lead is like a game with nearly unlimited moves and options. The human mind is a better predictive tool when it comes to seasonal modeling at the moment IMHO.

Oh yeah, seasonal maps are almost always warm at the surface. I generally just look at 500 maps and source regions - even for weeklies. The Euro seasonal and weeklies(mean) almost never see cold at range. Now, the one thing that does work is to look at the control surface and/or 850 temps on the Euro Weeklies - that gives a look under the hood so to speak. The seasonal CFSv2 looked good today. I almost posted it, but it will likely change tomorrow. The CANSIPS has shown some skill at range w/ its 500 and temps maps...but only the November run has been accurate, though October can provide some hints.

Yep. Its 500 and surface maps don't correlate to the snow maps. Temps and 500 maps correlate better than last month. Generally, a very warm pattern for most of winter. 500 is more opportune for November and December if I remember correctly. The entire winter run was a bit touchy. I was really surprised to see that snow map circulating as I am not sure that I have access to it or just haven't looked! FTR, I don't think it is right at 500. The CFSv2 seasonal has been spitting out some fun 500 runs at times.

I "suspect" we see the typical mid-late Nov cold snap which lasts into the last third of December, a BIG thaw, and maybe a return later in the winter of some cold. LR ext modeling is much less bullish on even minor cold shots for this upcoming winter - big SERs showing up on modeling. I just don't think the Nina is gonna be that strong. The CANSIPS can bust bigly at times. I do think late season heat typically signals a fairly major flip to cold at some point - like summer to winter within days. Nearly all modeling has a significant warm-up mid-winter.

Yuck. @Holston_River_Rambler, the big red ball over the Aleutians is there for three straight months. Let's hope the CANSIPS is wrong. Next month is the the one with the most skill. I don't like this at all. November looked good. October isn't a bad look, but I think it stays warm. @nrgjeff, if we are talking talking basketball....this is the equivalent of Kansas making the NIT, right?

I thought for sure we were going to miss extended summer this year. Nope. October could well be VERY warm. That does likely set us up for a very sharp flip come November if past Nina years are any clue.

The Euro weeklies control today flat out drops the hammer to begin November. There is some support from the ensemble. Yes, I know...waayy out there and huge grains of salt. Just wanted to share that winter is beginning to show up on some model runs at very long range as it should.

You just need to send me out jogging. It only rained here today when I was out running. Fortunately, I grabbed a zip-loc bag for my phone. Only Helene was worse. The weight of my shoes and clothes was ROUGH by the end of the run. Unrelated to John's post(and so I don't have to post again)...Definitely keeping an eye on recent trends for the tropical system early-mid week. The 12z GFS has it hitting the Apps at a 90 degree angle. I don't think it will be as bad as last year or even close to that. So, I don't want to raise that alarm. The storm just doesn't hold together...moving slower to boot. Some model runs do have several inches on the taller peaks of W NC. The one thing I am watching is that it has had a tendency to stall on some runs.

Great to hear. Right now, trying to guess where storms are going to pop is akin to wearing a blindfold and throw darts at a dart board. There is some degree of accuracy, but not a lot. Anyway, glad you all were able to get the event in. I am always hesitant to offer specifics, but will when I can. During my early years of following weather model snow output(late 90s), I had a coworker heading to W NC for a wedding. The NWS had issued heavy snow warnings, and I told her it might not be a good idea to travel over the mountain. We might have received a brief snow shower - even in the mountains. We got totally blanked. So, I always get a bit queasy when lots of money and big events are held...and I give any input. I have an old roommate who currently works on-air for ESPN's college football programming. Several years ago, the Euro started putting out HUGE snow outputs for Charlotte. I am talking 4-5 feet. I thought it was feedback, but the model was just adamant that a blizzard was coming. For like 4-5 days, it had huge amounts, and didn't budge even as it was apparent the storm was a no-go. Earlier I had sent him a message to keep an eye on it. I don't even think the grass was ever covered. When referencing another forecaster.....I think he used the word - charlatan. LOL - yikes. I gladly leave the real stuff to Jeff and Co. Ha!

How did things turn out?

The Euro Weeklies ensemble and control is hinting at the first strong cold fronts of the season beginning in mid-October. Waaaay out there(huge grains o salt), the ensemble is hinting at sharp turn to colder during November w/ a PNA ridge popping out West and hooking into the AO region. Base warm pattern until mid Oct, transition w/ retrograding ridge into the West, and then looks like potential cold for November.

MRX is mentioning the potential for heavy rain tomorrow. The areas with the greatest chances for 2+" of rain are I81/75west onto the Plateau. Just a heads up.

I will give it a go. Hopefully, some of the Nooga folks will chime in. Tough time of day to get a good grasp on. Afternoon storms are a risk in this pattern. Signal Mountain is also an entirely different ball game due to its elevation. If it is anything like my area here in TRI, modeling will often miss things above 1500'. Firstly, I am not a good short range summer weather source. I did check the RGEM, HRRR, and NAM 3k this morning for your local. I think what you shared is probably accurate. The RGEM is a hair earlier than 7PM. It is worth noting that modeling has been hit or miss with afternoon storms of late over E TN - i.e. not overly accurate. A lot of these lines and cells have been slow movers. By late morning or lunch today, if it were me...I would really keep an eye on short range, hi-res modeling which is derived from radar. The Signal Mountain NWS point and click is this for the entire day (25% from 4-7PM).... A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. South wind around 5 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon.

On the way back from Knoxville yesterday, we drove through an absolute tempest around Kodak. The Morristown/Dandridge area did really well with rain yesterday as did most of Knoxville. TRI has turned predictably dry as this is normally our driest time of the year. There should be some welcome relief this week.

We had several nearly stationary t-storms this evening over several areas of TRI.

Looks like a cutoff low rolling through next weekend, and maybe one more after that. Hopefully, that ends the heat.

My eye spies a very slightly-ish positive PDO. Get those warm SSTs along the NE PAC coastline, and we are in business.

Real feel here is 89. Humidity is low thankfully. Temps in the shade aren’t bad. Mornings aren’t bad.

Summer's last gasp coming up this weekend and next week? I think so. LR ext modeling and general ensembles depict BN heights dropping into the Aleutians. That should pop a ridge out West, and goodbye summer heat. But before we get there, it is gonna get HOT. Early October should feature a full blown transition to generally normal to BN temps.

The 30mb QBO has fallen to -22.28 and still dropping. I think it levels off(hits the bottom of the parabola) sometime during December or January. That likely promotes chances for some HL blocking episodes. I don't see that in modeling yet, but that is more of a mid-Nov to late Dec thought anyway.

Sure enough, it looks like modeling is trending towards much AN temps during the next 3-4 weeks. We have seen the aforementioned head fake towards cool too many times to count. The one thing in our favor is that E TN is not in a drought. That could help the entire region regardless of drought status as the drought is no forum wide. We will see. Looks like there is another cold front maybe around Sept 20th before modeling really drops the heat hammer. Let's hope that is wrong!

Latest seasonals CANSIPS/Euro are showing a nasty trend towards a juiced SER. I think west of the Apps, we still have our chances. It is almost like modeling is overdoing the Nina. Plenty of time for things to change. The daily CFS seasonal is decent until December.