Carvers Gap

Ah, yeah. I forget he is in the TRI right now! Awesome for him!!! Weeklies looked decent. Feb10-20 there is a -NAO w/ a trough undercutting the block from Seattle to Savannah. That is often a great setup, but still a ways to go before that - so it could change. But the 500 map looks good. I always kind of find that February is a month where we look for windows of winter precip. It is also a month where the jet can buckle on very short notice - remember that February is a time when the long wave winter pattern at 500 breaks down over the NH. That means that the amplitude of troughs/ridges often increase and the frequency of those troughs/ridge can be more numerous. It can be a month of chaos. I wouldn't even worry about d10-16 right now....very likely to change many times. And this week is not without things to track. Next weekend has ago be watched. It is weird, but weekend winter storms are incredibly common as are storms on a 7 day rotation.

Tallahassee, FL, is forecast tomorrow (during the day) to have 9F wind chills. Check out their forecast discussion for today. Here are some excerpts. FXUS62 KTAE 311752 The coldest air and wind chills will arrive Saturday night with the strong cold air advection continuing as we will still have elevated winds of around 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph through the night. Temperatures are expected to fall into the low 20s, and perhaps the upper teens. A (Hard) Freeze Warning is in effect because of these cold temperatures. This product is mainly for advisement to protect exposed plants and pipes. Apparent temperatures will be bitterly cold with values in the single digits, ranging from 3 to 7 degrees! Hypothermia onset will be quick as cold air and strong winds efficiently pull heat from all living things that are outside. Sheltering and minimal exposure will be incredibly important Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Due to these extremely cold wind chills, an Extreme Cold Warning is in effect to warn all living things about the dangerously cold temperatures and to be sure to find adequate shelter.

What a January it has been! We started off anomalously warm w/ everyone eyeing Jan 11th as a return to the eastern trough which began winter. We had just experienced a roaring chinook nationwide with much AN temps to end December and begin January. Winter returned w/ a roar on the 11th, but quite dry. That changed quickly, however, with a crippling ice storm last weekend for parts of Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee to name a few. One week later, E TN would get in on the action w/ a mid-winter snowstorm in which snow fell into sub-freezing temps which started off in the low 30s and dropped into the teens with wind chills in the low single digits. As I write this, the WC is 6F w/ north-south snow bands ripping through on cold north winds. I feel nearly certain blizzard conditions have been experienced above 5000' in the Smokies. IMBY, we close out the month under a winter storm warning with last weekend's ice and winter storm encompassing almost half of the United States. TRI will finish more than a degree BN for temps w/ snowfall much AN. This month is living proof that winter can flip quickly and decisively. This winter may well be added to the long list of -QBO winters which have historical aspects. The cold of the past two weeks has been impressive. We have ice flowing down the North Fork of the Holston.

You all have been wracking up. Great storm for the Greene Co crew which was long overdue for a great storm.

It is amazing how snow in north Florida is more and more common with each passing season. It is no longer a novelty in my book.

I was just telling someone that I bet the peaks may be pushing 2-3'.

The big player on the NA field looks like a monster NA w/ marginal Pacific. That means good storm tracks but "just right" cold air. Timing will be important, but the pattern right after the 10th looks ripe. Is February finally gonna be February this year, ie big swings and overperforming snows?

I would guess this is the very coldest of air pouring into the region on a fresh snowpack. That is triggering nearly north-south snow bands. The atmosphere is squeezing out every last drop of moisture. We have had several heavy bands of snow here this afternoon. It is amazing how cold my hands get with these temperatures.

The first ten days of Feb were supposed to be warm-ish as in back to normal...and IDK if that is actually gonna work out. Take a look at the 12z GFS....one chance after another. I do think mid-month is a good window. But Wednesday has to be watched as does next weekend. Saturday-Monday is a window as well w/ a chance at a strong cold front. I am not even sure we are done w/ below zero stuff after early this week. I will say this...at some point this bitterly cold pattern is gonna break, even if spring forces it. And yes, I do think we have a warm ridge rolling through at some point, but I have to be honest...I am good w/ a few warm days. I need to thaw out. Morning runs w/ wind chills below 5F are not fun.

Glad to see the Chattanooga crew score!!!

And this is why we don't cancel winter in early and mid December...or late January. Mother Nature doesn't care if we cancel it. LOL. We had a crippling ice storm last weekend and a decent snowstorm this weekend. Two BIG events which have been accompanied by very cold temps. January will now finish BN for temps for most or right at seasonal. Snowfall and/or ice should finish AN for many. What a month of weather we have had. Started off crazy warm, and ended in the freezer. As for February? I continue to think we have a window right around mid-month if not before. Eventually, we are going to warm-up, and that seems like the second week of March if things don't flip before then...and we do need to keep an eye out for that.

These photos are from I81 between mile markers 50-57. The snow covered exit is Jearoldstown Rd.

Ended up w/ about 6" of snow here in west Kingsport. Had to run an errand this morning - had 5" of snow prior to leaving. I81 is one lane(meaning two tire tracks for that one lane) and is sketchy at times, especially off amps and on ramps - deep snow. Nothing has been plowed yet. I26 is a mess as well. The main arteries in Kingsport have not been plowed, but some side roads have been. If you get under a snow band, visibility drops to about a quarter or eighth of a mile. Overall, roads are in pretty awful shape. 4WD, all wheel drive, or front wheel driver recommended. Temps are frigid.

Yeah, the 0z RGEM isn’t budging. If there is a model we don’t want to budge…it’s that one. I see the snow hole at 18z over your area. I took a screen shot for later discussion. That is a major data issue IMHO.

3k NAM with some fairly big reductions over Sullivan as well as the 12k.

I will say this…with everyone getting at least some snow, the stage is set for very cold air to pour into the region through Tuesday AM. Real feels are gonna be rough.

You all east of 81 appear set.

I do think the best lift comes in around midnight or just after for TRI and holds for a few hours. Though to be sure, empty or meh radars leave me depending in total faith on modeling and a concern this lacks some energy which was modeled. Let’s see where the 0z models go. I think they turn downward west of 81. If not, we could be in good shape. IMBY, this was scheduled to start around 2:00PM and run until Sunday early. It started around 1:00PM. To my surprise, it didn’t stick until the sun went down. And according to the WSW, rush hour could have been bad. Fortunately and thankfully, that didn’t happen. So at this point we wait. I continue to say the usual NW slope winners of the past…will be winners now. The cold front “should” get everyone to 2-3” outside of Chatty…and I never venture a guess there. To get higher totals, we are gonna need more energy building back as modeled or have an elevation advantage. Like John said…slow burn. IMBY…very slow burn. But let’s see…this is a cold storm and that is a not so common occurrence. There will be surprises almost assuredly - Captain Obvious.

Per the 18z 3K NAM…I do think this builds some to the north and west of 81 in TRI….but just not sold this goes to anywhere near Euro levels in that area. What I am getting is just cold air wringing out moisture at the lower levels. I would guess the 3K NAM adjusts sharply downward at 0z for areas west of 81. But I am willing to give it a chance. With storms like these, I have watched this set up too many times to name…often it just never builds back this direction. Holding steady at 1.25” of snow.

I can see empty sky and the moon. Gonna need some backfill clouds to start with. LOL.

TRI radar is lit south and east of I81. Pixie dust north and east of it IMBY…low rates here.

Sorry. I am in the ops thread talking about the pattern...but here goes. The 18z 3k NAM and RGEM spread energy from east to west w/ some backing evident. I will be interested to see if this occurs. I just want to see the wind w/ the light snow in combination per @tnweathernut.

Exactly my experience, and part of the reason I really have struggled to buy-in with this. You and I both drove through the cutoff zone. It is abundantly apparent where it is...even now at this early stage. Now, if the 18z GFS and 12z Euro are right...more energy rotates back into our area overnight from slightly NE. I can't say I like seeing the cutoff already in place, but there may be more fireworks before we are totally cutoff from the lift.

I drove about 3-4 miles south of my local…huge difference in rates. Already a big discrepancy evident here.