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Carvers Gap

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  1. @Daniel Boone The ensemble looks to me like week 3 is warm. Week 4 is quite cold(maybe colder). Honestly, week 3 for middle and E TN look pretty similar. The Plains during week 3 are warm...just a quick glance on my part.
  2. And this current SSW should show up around early March. We have the mid Jan SSW which should be now, but maybe went to Asia. It is also possible that modeling is now correcting to the Jan SSW event. Tough to know. I am very cautiously optimistic that modeling is trending colder....sitting on a razors edge though. Super warm pattern if the NAO doesn’t show.
  3. Modeling is also picking up on 1-2 pretty severe cold shots in March. Let's see where this goes tomorrow. For now, we have winter wx advisories posted. If we end up getting snow, someone needs to open up a thread for the winter wx advisory.
  4. Almost every system on the GFS has some frozen precip over portions of the forum area.
  5. So, the GFS has a pretty major cold outbreak around the 23-27th or so. It actually looks great right before this, but this is a big time look. NAO, PNA/EPO, undercutting of the western ridge, PV trapped under the couplet highs which are almost hooked over the top, low in the Aleutians. That is a cold, stormy signal. Remember how we have noted that modeling has a really hard time modeling the NAO, but when it gets it.....you see this. I don't know if this is a trend. For now, it is a two-run trend(12z and 18). It could end up flipping right back. But...the operational GFS is pretty renowned for catching trends early.
  6. The 18z GFS looks actually colder than 12z. It looks like winter. I feel like I have lived this sequence once already this winter? There is also another potential winter system around the 23rd.....
  7. We got a wooly worm substitute and an elk substitute(very cool BTW). We have winter wx advisories up for norther middle and west TN , and are tracking a slider on the 17th on the Euro. And the GFS is cold.... Honestly, this is what the Weeklies were advertising for weeks before losing them. This is probably a "light" version, but interesting to see it work out.
  8. The cold front is right on time. What is crazy is that this was a cold/snow time frame for weeks, and frozen precip was lost about ten days ago(roughly IDK). Now, it is back. Feb 13-14 has been the pattern switch for a while. Hopefully, some folks will get a quick thump. The 12z GFS on cue has now three fairly strong cold fronts throughout its run. It is anything but wall-to-wall warm. I'll have to look but 10+ days of that might be BN.
  9. When the Canadian starts to produce real feel temps like this, it is probably at least worth passing attention. There is probably some bias in play here, but the Canadian can sometimes spot colder air masses before the GFS. If this is legit, it could snow deep into South Carolina and even the Panhandle. I don't think it does, but this solution would allow for it.
  10. One thing which keeps my attention(rightly or wrongly), the warm-up from Jan 21 to now was originally forecast to be just a 3-4 day warm-up. It missed the MJO rotation into the warm phases, and the supposed hiccup of a warm spell lasted for weeks. There is part of me that wonders if that is happening right now, except the cold pattern continues longer than forecast. Modeling has been guilty all season of perpetuating a pattern and missing the turn. Now, I think there is good evidence that the warm MJO wins, but I don't think it is a slam dunk. MjO plots this morning tended to go COD in the colder phases, and that is something to watch in terms of trends. Now, I think warm-ups are inevitable...spring is going to fight this. But when I look at the 12z CMC driving single digits and low teens into the region, I do wonder if modeling is under estimating the embedded cold shots.....
  11. ...and we are now left to fight inevitable spring with only the power of the one tone, wooly worm.
  12. I know Cosgrove has mentioned that analogs point towards a warm spring w/ El Nino collapsing. This is also the time of year (shoulder season) where LR modeling will sometimes struggle mightily. All of that said, spring is not looking warm on LR ext or seasonal modeling. However, summer is looking very warm - meaning above normal. Given the performance of recent LR modeling and analog packages, I would say pretty everything is on the table for spring. I do think mid-late summer and most of fall will be hot/dry, maybe brutally hot if Nina kicks in.
  13. Oddly, the 14th has been the day that we have looked at for a pattern change. To be clear, I don't think the new pattern is going to be all that great for snowfall in the valleys, but this would be a decent score for LR ext modeling. Of note, snowfall in forecasting is incredibly difficult to predict at range. Even when I do my "just for fun" seasonal modeling, I make a guess at snowfall...but it is like throwing darts while blindfolded. So beware, it can snow during a warm pattern. Here are the 12z outputs from meso scale modeling for the upcoming 14ths system. Nighttime is best option. I would not be surprised to see some folks in the forum area score if they catch this at night. This is probably a tougher sell for E TN unless you live near a break in the Plateau where moisture can slip through. Middle and west TN folks have a potentially minor or lollipop event to track. The ARW is not out yet, and it was bullish at 0z. I will add it here once it is completed. That map Tellico had this winter was really good about "flyways" for moisture entering the eastern valley. I was reading about a similar set-up around the Grand Tetons. I have always wondered why Jackson, WY, got so much less than Moran and Alpine. Those last two areas live near breaks in that mountain range.
  14. Choose your own adventure book on CPC MJO plots this morning. The GEFS now takes a full rotation through the cold phases. The Euro does not. I like the 6z GEFS....it has a cold front on the 14th, 17th, and 25th. They don't have a lot of staying power, but that fits the wild MJO look. That MJO look should support a very transient pattern. I would lean base warm, simply because the warm days will likely be warmer against the norms than the cold days. As noted earlier, to score at this point we are looking for a well placed storm which would be timed to hit one of those cold shots. It would not surprise me to see snow showers next weekend. The storm for the 17-18th is not there. I am 50/50 on whether it returns. It is kind of in that window where storms are often lost. As for the 14th system, American modeling still has a pretty good thump for west TN as well portions of middle. The 3k NAM and 12k NAM both have rates driven snow which is crazy hard to predict. It would not surprise me to see some decent lollipops along the TN/KY border (middle and west). if American modeling is correct. As the 12z rolls in there are some pretty big differences between the 3k and 12k NAM. I am guessing modeling is struggling w/ rates driven stuff. It looks like the NAM favors a changeover in middle(and that is also nighttime which makes sense). The 12z changes over earlier in west TN. Whoever gets this system at night has the advantage. The Plateau may score some accumulation if the 3k is correct
  15. 18z Euro tried to get interesting as well for the Plateau. Holston went out and found a snowstorm to track.
  16. ARW is in as well. Crazy stuff. I have my doubts that feedback is going on....but big totals like that are not unusual for a Feb snowstorm. Models often underestimate QPF. Wild.
  17. I know, right. The SE trend has been real all winter, but I hadn't even bothered to check the near term. Looks like it is rates driven w/ some marginal cold to work with.
  18. Yeah, it snuck-up on me for sure. I was just looking at the GFS trends, and it has moved SE for several runs. When I say "on time," the 14th was the original pattern change date. Crazy that west TN(maybe portions of middle) might be backing into a storm.
  19. Memphis w/ the afternoon disco....sorry, western forum folks, for skipping this! You all might have something to track. The aforementioned upper low is forecast to move directly over the Mid-South on Monday. As this occurs, wraparound precipitation will likely impact portions of northeast Arkansas and west Tennessee. Some guidance is beginning to hint at potential sleet / snow development on Monday for these areas. A few snow flurries may be possible as forecast soundings depict below freezing temperatures throughout the majority of the atmospheric column. However, surface temperatures will likely be a few degrees above freezing so anything that does fall should melt quickly. The greater concern on Monday will be winds as the center of low pressure moves overhead. Currently, guidance keeps winds just below Wind Advisory criteria. However, would not be surprised if this headline is needed in the coming days.
  20. Wow. Check out the 18z HRRR....it has it as well. Right on time if real!!!
  21. Yep, that is it. That is going to be a major loss. Thanks for the clarification. How long until that occurs?
  22. The 12z EPS looks like it caved to the GEFS in the long range. As Jeff noted the MJO is going into warm phases on satellite and the previous convection over the MC didn't moved into the eastern Pac as modeled. On to bowling season. Storm track is still favorable, though cold sources are not. Of note, Asia often gets first choice when it comes to SSW events. The cold has dumped there. Our cold sources are also not great right now. Even if we had a perfect HL blocking set-up, there is no severe cold(in Canada...though Canadian cold is still cold here in TN) in medium and LR modeling to deliver. Eastern NA is often third choice when it comes to strat splits. Now, the current strat split...that is TBD. The current cold in Asia is due to a Jan SSW. So, a very cold spell during March can't be ruled out once this SSW runs it course - 2-3 weeks later would be probably impacts to mid-laititudes. All of that said, it was super common during my youth to see severe cold delivered into the TN Valley, and then winter would be over after that at lower elevations. 84-85, 89-90, 22-23, and maybe 17-18 (could be 18-19) come to mind. 09-10 and 14-15 were more prolonged, but that is a rarity for most of the winters I lived through. Usually, winter showed-up, hammered us, and then left. I still think LR modeling is probably washing out a cold shot. You could see the 12z GFS try to deliver the goods late in its run. When wave lengths shorten during spring, modeling will often miss very cold air masses that are quick hitters. I should note that the 12z Euro control looked super similar to the 12z GFS. That could/would likely deliver some very cold air w/ that set-up. Is the EPS being discontinued? That is the word on the street...maybe above towards a control oriented model suite?
  23. The 12z CMC definitely shows the potential for the trailing system around the 20th.
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