Carvers Gap
-
Posts
15,656 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Carvers Gap
-
@Holston_River_Ramblersure looks like the 18z Euro just made a big, big move towards the CMC at 0z.
-
What is crazy, the GFS has one loaded up right after this one. I don't think this is a tracking-one-and-done cold cycle.
-
I really want a boomer. I hate being flirted with by models. By all rights climatology doesn’t really support monster snows IMBY(most years), but I am standing at the plate looking for a hanging fastball on this one.
-
The Euro went right to it last night and again at lunch. I think E TN has the best shot at this but still a ways to go. Western NC and the Research Triangle are sitting pretty. We need this to back flow some…not sure if that happens.
-
I'll take 20 days in phase 8 and then a loop back around. But we will gladly take the CFS version which gives us 28 days in cold phases. The BOMM and EMON(Euro ext) from two days basically stall the MJO in cold phases from now to the end of their runs in the middle of March.
-
The 12z GFS, as putrid as it was, implies several nickel and dime events after the 19th.
-
And lots of snow. Someone feel free to post the kuchera.
-
I'm not sharing a foxhole with the CMC, but that was impressive. It is one of MANY options, but that shows at least one of the options on the table. For the record, the CMC was northwest of its 0z run.
-
97mph wind gusts off the coast of Maine on that run.
-
45 degree BN temperature anomalies.
-
The CMC can keep its -20 real feels.
-
I don't even want to know how much cold is behind something like that.
-
The 12z CMC has a 959 low sitting off Portland, Maine.
-
The 12z CMC is a freaking monster.
-
The 12z CMC is a big dog. Trailing energy caught it. Have I said how much I hate tracking "trailing energy" storms. This is why.
-
Yeah, hold up. The 12z CMC somehow found the storm. LOL.
-
We are gonna try to send this one to Havana. Not good trends at 12z.
-
The 12z CMC has 1060 high sitting over this at 114.
-
The ICON at 12z was very suppressed.
-
And that friends is why trailing energy systems are the worst to track. That GFS cutter the other day is almost laughable now. Ensembles overnight were very suppressed compared to their deterministic counterparts. This looks like it may well swing well below us and try to come up the coast in reality. Where is the SER when we need it?
-
12z GFS is going to try to dig a bit more out West at 99h. It might just be slower, but this solution may be a bit different than 6z,
-
6z EURO AIFS sent it to Cuba.
-
Trend we are fighting over the last 6 hours is suppression.
-
I should add that depending on a trailing system is often a component in many of the fails of bigger storms I have tracked. Trailers tend to verify east of what is modeled in my experience.
-
I think cold is a given. Within 36 hours, this should be a lot clearer regarding the storm. The 12z AIFS had this yesterday….but there are more pieces of energy after the first storm.
