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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    ...and really want to emphasize, if the cold is as intense as modeled in the d8-10 range...modeling is going to struggle some. Those big, cold highs are like a wrecking ball. So, it will be really important over the nest 3-4 days to get a handle on just how strong those highs are going to be. Again, if they are 1045+ then it is likely modeling is underestimating how far south that cold pushes. We saw this look a few weeks back. The models correctly anticipated severe cold. However, the first few runs sent it into the East. However, it went West and busted all kinds of records out there last week. With the SER impeded right now, the cold has a better chance of making it SE. But again, need to really look at how strong those highs are and need to see if a mechanism gets it SE with either a storm and/or buckle of the jet.
  2. Carvers Gap
    ...and the 12z EPS has dumped the eastern ridge idea for days 10-15 during its last two runs. It has reverted to an eastern trough. We will see if it holds. Seasonal changes and those big, cold highs on operational are likely playing havoc with mid-long range modeling. So, looks like we have a chance to make it to mid-month with BN temps. The GEFS and GEPS have been fairly steady with maintaining an eastern trough. Definitely interested in the cold shot(after the Friday cold shot). It will be interesting to see if modeling continues to show those big 1045-1050+ highs. If those highs enter into central MT, the current weather pattern will likely bring them SE. The question is...how far? IF those highs are that big...then it is likely that modeling is actually underdone on how far SE the cold makes it. Interesting times ahead. Lots of great discussion already this afternoon regarding the potential consequences if those big highs push this far south. Eerily similar to last November, even with a different SST configuration. Right now, I am just enjoying the cooler temps. This is my kind of weather.
  3. Carvers Gap
    No doubt. Yeah, I have been half-joking about that analog only because it closely mirrors record highs here at TRI. That said, the cool water that developed off of SA during early summer might have caused that analog to work for a short time. It is a bit crazy how closely it has mirrored September and October. All right, ya'll...going to get into this UAB game a bit more. Have to support my orange. Keep the fires lit while I am glued to this pivotal game - sarcasm intended.
  4. Carvers Gap
    And I still use them....but I just trust them less. I mean it's not like if haven't mentioned 1954 like 100 times in this thread! LOL.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I will add, Tellico, someone asked me if this was going to be a severe winter. Nothing would surprise me. Plenty of conflicting signals. My ideas are in the summer thread, but truly these are "anything goes" type atmospheric conditions. LOL.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Had heavy frost on the garden this AM...I thought my garden fall crops would be fried(which I mentioned in another thread). This afternoon, they looked great! Hardy little rascals.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I think the lack of temp gradient(Typhoon Tip...) around common ENSO conditions is causing problems. That said, the warm fall teleconnected well with cooler waters off of SA(now warming I think) and the -NAO. The MJO also correlated well to the heat and the ending of the heat. I personally think most of the teleconnections still work most of the time with some obvious exceptions. The active IOD and abnormally active MJO pretty much made many old analogs moot last winter. So, I think some still work and some don't. @Mr Bobused to always point to each year being its own analog. I think that is true... What is making things difficult from a model watching standpoint is how badly the EPS has been from d10-15. It barely sees any cold w its surface temp depictions. Its 500 maps have been OK. The GFS/GEFS have been ok but I never fully trust those. LOL.
  8. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Yeah, go check out those low temps that accompany that. There is another cold shot after next weekend on the GFS that delivers those accums...question is does the cold get into the SE after next weekend? EPS and Euro are kind of dodgy regarding that time frame with the EPS breaking in continuity from its 0z run and a ridge over the East for d10-15(this has been going on for a couple of weeks). GFS just goes all-in. Will be interesting to watch if that cold does come SE.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Definitely agree with the mid-month potential for a warm-up in our forum area. Mentioned that earlier in the week(this past week) before the ensembles went stone cold. LOL. The EPS does show some signs of a ridge late in the run in a fairly significant break from continuity. It has been wrong about those so far, and its d10-15 runs have not verified well in terms of missing cold. But with what is shown on the operationals...nowhere to go but up as the Euro deterministic is almost BN for the length of its run at TRI. The 12z Euro has extreme BN temps over portions of the Plains and southern Canada(bitterly cold) late in its run. Average high at TRI is 63ish for early November. No idea if that run verifies...but that is a chilly run.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Looking at the temps for next Friday...temps on modeling are struggling to reach 40. Game temps for HS football games could possibly be in the 30s...low 30s along the the TN/KY borders. Real feel temps will likely be colder. The Euro like the GFS has bitterly cold temps in the 7-10 day range...The Euro actually has some -50 degree departures at 240. Fortunately, that is way out there and will change. The 12z GFS provides a means to deliver that well in the SE. The Euro seems like it wants to park those temps along the northern tier. Still, impressive cold now showing up pretty consistently for the 6-10 time frame. Looks like two shots. Going to need to keep an eye on that shot coming in after next weekend. It may whiff...or it may be very cold. That 10d airmass would likely break records wherever it sets up shop. Very winter like 12z suite. Still surreal to be talking about that...my yard is still fried from the heat. My garden is fried from the cold last night. LOL.
  11. Carvers Gap
    When a big 1055 high rolls into the front range in MT...you know the rest of the run is going to be stellar. 12zGFS...whoa.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Looks like WCYB on their FB page has a couple of photographs of the tornado that went through the far southwest corner of Virginia. Fortunately, that is a very rural area. What a wild weather day it was yesterday. Looks like Roan Mt and Leconte both picked up light accumulations of snow. Just glancing at the webcam, looks like Sugar might have been blowing snow last night...but I could be wrong.
  13. Carvers Gap
    39 degrees in west Kingsport with wind chills in the lower 30s at best. Truly awesome cold front today - a true howler. Those never get old. Is that a 30 degree temperature swing since later morning? Rain got out of here in time for trick or treating. We built a fire in our portable fire pit in the front yard and roasted marshmallows. LOL. I keep saying it...it is absolutely amazing to look at the range of weather for the month of October. Set the all time record high for like four straight times to begin the month. We had been 33 days with only 0.1" of rain. Today we had severe storms, ~1.25" of rain IMBY, and the event ended as snow for some. Mid 90s on the first day and wind chills in the upper 20s to low 30s and snow to end it. Certainly was not boring, though I don't ever want to see 90s in October again. This is one for the archives.
  14. Carvers Gap
    LOL. That is hilarious.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Growing up I had never heard of a downslope wind in this area. Great find. We have our own chinook... Folks that wonder what we talk about during winter storm downsloping events can get a good idea what we deal with from that map. Sometimes I wonder what we called the "warm nose" was actually just a downslope event. Now, obviously the warm nose is its own thing...but sometimes I think it is made worse by a downslope event.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Just a bunch of wind and rain IMBY. The first day of October and the last day of October are about as polar opposite as one can get in regards to October. LOL. This entire day is October in a micro. Started warm. Gonna end cold.
  17. Carvers Gap
    We have some posters in that area...hopefully they will post a report.
  18. Carvers Gap
    We began October by setting all-time record highs and were dealing with a developing drought. We end it with severe/heavy rain and snow behind that. Gotta love the Tennessee Valley forum region. LOL!!!!!
  19. Carvers Gap
    @Blue Ridge has some great satellite photos in the severe thread of the downslope. Looks like things were really rolling in Knox Co now. Severe line now headed for NE TN.
  20. Carvers Gap
    I am going to make a side trip out there to the Sinks. Just too good to pass that up.
  21. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Pisgah ninja'd me!!! To tag onto his post... Cool little piece of information that JB mentioned this AM. The Peter Sinks in Utah may(still be verified) have hit -46F. That would break the all-time record low for the lower 48 for October I think. Anyway, I did some research. It is a bowl at high elevation(thinking above 9K'). You can literally walk into the inversion and the temp drops 30-40 degrees when the inversion occurs. I had heard of these types of phenomena in Antartica. Basically an indentation in the geography of a very cold area can be significantly colder than its surroundings. I think in Antartica there are little cave like features that have crazy cold temps as the cold just drains into them. I wonder if Heber is near this area? https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/10/30/arctic-cold-blast-breaks-temperatures-october-utah-wyoming-colorado/4098089002/ edit: Here is the article about the phenomena in Antartica. I had no idea (but it makes sense) that it happened at the latitude of Utah. Makes me think of places like Camp Creek which get such strong winds...real life outliers that just have perfect conditions for extremes. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5888749/The-coldest-place-Earth-chillier-scientists-thought.html
  22. Carvers Gap
    I wouldn't be surprised to see some light accumulations above 5,000' in the NE TN mountains and NW mountains of NC.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I think a fairly good case could be made for multiple scenarios this winter. A lot of seasonal forecasting is a crap shoot as there is just too much chaos that can't be accounted for at this time from an atmospheric perspective. But there are some really good seasonal forecasters out there...Many times those seasonal forecasts have good information even during years when their forecasts don't verify. Usually the best ones pretty much spell out their ideas plainly in either a general or a meticulous format. Some of those mets work in private or government industry and can't release their detailed forecast. So, just have to read between the lines. As for why folks are going warm...bet the streak. The pattern which has led to a cold inter-mountain northwest has been tough to beat as has the SER. Until that pattern runs its course...tough to bet against it. I think probably the warmth in the NE Pacific has some influence on the warm winter outlooks. I think the ongoing NA pattern does. I think the rather wonky looking El Nino(cooler in the East) is factoring into those. I think the uncertainty with the QBO is fueling some of that along with the recent overall tendency for winters to be AN in the East. As hobbiests, we have the freedom to kick around different ideas with little or no accountability, because our jobs don't depend on it. If I was going on TV with a winter storm forecast, I doubt I would be as forthcoming with multiple models ideas as I am here. Folks get mad when forecasts bust. So many veteran mets are super careful with their words which is not a bad idea in any profession. Anyway, the new Cansips comes out tomorrow and the Euro seasonal should roll within a week. Those should be interesting, but I am especially interested in the Cansips as it has been pretty good during the past few winters.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Forgot about that. LOL. Yeah, that is really pretty wild. If that cold verifies, it would be almost a carbon copy in terms of September, October and early November for much of the forum area. I mean '54 has to run out of steam at some point, right?
  25. Carvers Gap
    Both the 18z GFS and 12z Euro are dropping big highs out of Canada late in their runs, into the front range of the Rockies, and then southeastward. Some of those highs are 1045s. That is significant early cold if that verifies. I normally don't talk about stuff that far out...but the 500 pattern would support a major cold outbreak for the eastern 2/3s of the country for the first half of November(edit...it did say February...LOL). There were places in Wyoming that smashed record lows this AM - not the same air mass as I am discussing...just illustrates the impressive early season cold. Both models bring a system out fo the GOM that ride the Arctic front's boundary as either a northern Miller A or a Miller B. I know it is out there in terms of time...but man, those are some big highs. If those keep showing up, they will be the antithesis of what happened to begin October and a heckuva a lot more fun to talk about. LOL.
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