Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    14,245

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    This "should"(not sure what they have at the airport) mark the sixth day during March where KTRI will measure a trace or more of snow.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Most short range models show a lull between the rain and snow for the northeast Valley. The snow in NE TN/SW VA happens after the energy in the vortex dives into the trough as the slp develops along the coast. It deepens that coastal low and snow builds into that region w energy diving into the trough. Looks like it tomorrow morning that the snow (if it happens) begins for lower elevations. The snow in Wytheville is early if one looks at the 18z NAM.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Awesome! Anytime we can get snow falling at this elevation on March 20...bonus!
  4. Carvers Gap
    Pretty wintry looking forecast period for mid-late March. KTRI...
  5. Carvers Gap
    Looks like lightning has been observed at KTRI and Middlesboro. Crossville is sitting at 41.
  6. Carvers Gap
    That could be really good for you all.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Looking at snow on RadarScope just west of Nashville. You all seeing any out that way?
  8. Carvers Gap
    Kingsport is like the Chattanooga of this latitude. We get more snow because of our position in relation to the Atlantic and we are just close enough to get upslope snow. It also gets much colder up here than compared to southern areas of the forum. But where we are in the Valley provides exponential opportunities for lesser amounts - rain/snow shadow city. We are like a decent mid-major basketball team in a Power 5 conference up here. We get on a good run from time to time...but the blue bloods usually win. There are events where I am only a ten minute drive from decent snow. Roan mountain saves the day usually...we drive there when we get whiffed over here. Takes about an hour, but well worth it. Plus, when I get home I don't have to shovel.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I should add that the 12kNAM will likely verify as the snow hole is right over my local, and Chattanooga is also without snow. I have seen this movie before. Any snow is bonus snow at this point...flurries, snow showers, or for a lucky few..accumulation. When I lived in JC for a few years, March seemed to always hold a few surprises.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The 12z 12kNAM also shows a shift northward w the snow shield which is a very normal trend with spring storms. Still, plenty to watch. Really, I am hoping the mountains see something as I am willing and able to travel if the roads are clear...and of course if there is snow in them thar hills.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Just flipped through he overnight model suite and morning 6z run. I have been watching this for some time. Just have not written much as I think most were getting weary of the snow talk during what should be spring. (If you want to see a broken record....just go look at the BN temps on the Weeklies. On the bright side, it does finally show seasonal temps by late April.) March snows are notorious for surprises and difficult in forecasting. I generally just look at it like this...mountains (as usual) get more but the discrepancy is usually much more. The Valley is a total crap shoot - as there are multiple drivers for snow there but elevation is the issue and time of day. This system is tricky. Many of the short range models have a slp developing in the lee of the Apps which is partly energy transfer and partly just a vortex rotating into the area. Big takeaway is decent amount of energy rotating through as it cools off. MRX has a great write-up this AM BTW. I wasn't going to include it, because it was so long...but it is truly a good write-up. <Begin MRX quote> The cold air behind the frontal passage will allow the rain showers to change to snow showers across the higher terrain first this evening, and then into the Plateau overnight. For the valleys of southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee and gradual change over to snow showers is expected early Wednesday morning. Due to low-level instability, orographic lift, and deformation zone wrapping around upper low, a prolonged period of snow showers are expected across the area through Wednesday evening. Snow accumulations will be elevation dependent given the relatively warm ground and strong ultra-violet radiation melting snowfall. Have issued a winter storm warning for the higher elevations of southwest Virginia, such as High Knob, and the far eastern Tennessee Mountains. Places like the higher terrain of the Smokys will likely see the greatest snow accumulations. Light snow accumulations are also possible over the lower elevations of southwest Virginia and northern Plateau. May need to issue a winter weather advisory there later this morning. Besides the snow, freezing temperatures are expected area-wide for Wednesday night/Thursday morning. A freeze watch will likely be issued later today. .Long Term (Thursday through Monday)... Temperatures will remain around 10 degrees below normal with northerly/northwesterly flow bringing in colder and drier air. After a brief break from precipitation chances during the day on Thursday, chances ramp back up Thursday evening/night. A shortwave will move in from the northwest and bring out next chance at precipitation. With the temperatures expected to get near or just below freezing on Thursday night/Friday morning we can`t rule out the possibility of additional winter weather. Right now the best chances look to be in the higher terrain and NE Tennessee and SW Virginia...But as usual with these events a lot will depend on the temperatures overnight, so potential snowfall amounts at this time are a bit tricky. But currently widespread heavy snowfall is generally not expected in our forecast area. <End MRX quote> Here is the Euro map from 0z and it looks reasonable if maybe not slightly too hefty for the Valleys and underdone in the mountains. That is to be expected by a global model.
  12. Carvers Gap
    @1234snow ...like clockwork. Thunder in the mountains during winter -> snow within two weeks. I know...I know...it is spring, but still funny nonetheless. Winter storm watches up in the mountains of North Carolina and SW VA. WWA for those in SE KY. .LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...We start the period with an area of low pressure swinging across the forecast area with ongoing light rain showers in place. As the low pulls east Tuesday night, colder air will advect into the region with stout nw flow behind the low. As temperatures drop through the night, rain will transition over to snow. The highest elevations will see snow as early as 00Z Wednesday. The snow line will quickly work its way down in elevation and areas around 3000/4000 feet should be seeing snow by roughly 03z. Depending on which model you look at, snow could start as early as 09Z for some valley locations and by 12z at the latest. Depending on how quickly the rain transitions over to snow in valley locations will determine the amount of accumulation, if any. As of now it looks like our favored upslope terrain, above 5000 feet, could see 2 to 4 inches with up to 6 across areas such as Mount LeConte, Sam`s Gap, and Roan Mountain. Areas between 2000 and 4000 feet 1 to 3 inches. Portions of the northern plateau, northeast TN, and southwest VA up to an inch in some valley locations. Where a dusting is possible across the central valley. We will continue to watch this system closely, especially as soon as we get past our severe weather event moving through tonight. A mountain zone winter weather advisory is likely with the next forecast update tomorrow morning. Light snow showers still in place Wednesday morning but tapering off by late morning for the valley. Light snow showers will linger on and off across the high terrain through the day. Highs on Wednesday are the coldest of the period with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. A few light snow showers could even linger into Wednesday night due to the upslope flow. Lows overnight will be in the mid to upper 20s for most.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Ha! Well, technically I am not sure that applies during spring....but does anyone have an accumulation map for the 12z Euro for the mid-late week system?
  14. Carvers Gap
    Interesting and volatile week of weather coming up per the ICON, GFS, and CMC at 0z...The strat warm and subsequent block continue to wreck havoc on spring.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Weeklies update....Keep in mind this is not a "winter season" update...but, man, it is cold relative to averages considering these are mean departures for normals. Temps are BN for most of the 6.5 week forecast...This current week and a timeframe during wks 4-5 depict seasonal to warm temps which eventually gets pushed back. Precip is BN for the southern areas of the forum and normal for the northern areas...but a generally BN signal overall for precip. So, some of that does not jive...normally for a cold spring, we see plentiful cold rains. Time will tell. The potential for a change in ENSO may be driving some of this. Have to think during those brief time frames where it warms up...sever could be an issue. ....This week and next is heaven for basketball fans. Some great games yesterday. More on tap today! edit: Typos fixed.
  16. Carvers Gap
    ........My mind says that last third of March is just a "no go"...but the overnight runs at 0z and 6z at least have my passing attention. So, proceed at your own risk from this point forward in this post. The event looks a bit too complex on the 21st of next week, and complex can be a pain even during the heart of winter....but most global operationals are showing some variation of the same thing. SLP crosses the TN Valley and a slp forms in the lee of the Apps or Piedmont and then slows over the Chesapeake area. I can definitely see a scenario of cold chasing rain...but that slp forming as one exits has been depicted for several runs. To me, spacing seems to be an issue, but there could also be an issue of the models not knowing which piece of energy to accentuate and/or have difficulty w those interactions once formed. Again, NE TN and SW VA seem to be in an area that could possible see winter precip....at this point ANY snow is bonus, even flurries. I think this is a very good write-up by MRX. This Spring type weather will give way to a colder regime to end the long term period as two or three short wave features dive into the back side of an Eastern United States long wave trough resulting in a rather amplified pattern Wednesday and Thursday. Model solutions indicate these short wave systems may have enough moisture for a chance of rain showers mainly on Wednesday with decreasing probability Wednesday night into Thursday. The temperature profile could be cold enough for the possibility of some snow showers in the higher terrain during this period, and maybe even in valley locations across Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee as the system gradually moves away to the east Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Forecast highs will be near normal for mid March early in the long term, but will be a good ten degrees below normal during the end of the period. ........Now to the near term. I thought the disco from MRX regarding severe(prior to the event above) was also interesting regarding Sat night. I am no fan of large hail which have been a big problem for those of us in NE TN during the past couple of decades. These comments preceded the comments noted above or Saturday...Warm front will continue to lift northeast across the regon with showers and elevated thunderstorms likely for the first half of the day. For the afternoon, the central and southern valley will likely have a lull in the convection as the lift moves north. However, as the upper trough moves toward the east Ohio and northern Tennessee Valleys late afternoon and evening, scattered showers and storms will redevelop. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF all differ on the amount of low-level moisture available during the afternoon. Will follow the more moist NAM/ECMWF solutions for now and expect scattered to broken convection to develop. Model soundings show the potential of large hail and damaging winds. MLCAPES of 1000-1500 J/kg, Hail CAPES of 300-600 J/Kg, lapse rates near 7 C/km, and WBZ Heights near 7kft support large hail. The 0-6km shear of 60kts also support rotating storms with more sustain updrafts. SHIP values between 1 and 1.5. As for the convective damaging winds, melting hail, plenty of dry mid-level entrainment and mid-level winds of 30-40kts supports potential of damaging winds. The potential strong convection will emain during the evening hours with showers diminishing after midnight.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I agree. It did a great job. Has been pretty good over the past week w a few expected hiccups. Edit: MRX did a great job as well w their disco Monday evening.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Winter Wx Advisory posted for SW VA tonight.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Great discussion everyone and thanks. Great read. MRX evening disco snippet... LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)...A vort max rotating around a closed upper low will drop southward into our northern sections on Tuesday night, bringing steep lapse rates and a NW flow that will generate scattered to numerous snow showers in SW VA and NE TN. Saturation in the dendrite growth zone and cold temps aloft will begin in our area around 03Z Wed and continue until around 15Z Wed. With surface temps in the 20s, 1-2 inches of accumulation may be possible in the mountains of TN and SW VA, with under an inch expected in lower elevations of NE TN and SW VA. Highs on Wednesday will be well below normal, only in the upper 30s and 40s.
  20. Carvers Gap
    I should add that the 12z EPS now has the trough back in the East for days 10-15 w warmth along the Gulf.
  21. Carvers Gap
    It is 41 in Kingsport with a windchill of 31. Wind chills are forecast tonight to be in the upper teens to lower 20s. Snow advisories are still posted for mountain communities. Still feels like winter, but spring temps are back in the forecast for this weekend.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Glad that you started this thread. Weeklies will roll tonight. I will add a spring update unless @nrgjeff updates first. My Weeklies spring updates are not "winter focused" though there certainly could be some snow for the mountains. So, when I mention cold it is not "winter cold" but just against the norms. Like @John1122, I think we are cold for a bit. I wonder how the transition to a neutral ENSO state will impact things. The models are hinting at some warmth building from the south/southwest. To close out the winter thread, I mentioned that it will be interesting to see if the Greenland block re-establishes(not that it really leaves) and if the building warmth in the aforementioned areas can "win" the battle. By warmth, I mean AN temps. Obviously it is spring, and warmth of a seasonal variety will win at some point.
  23. Carvers Gap
    That does not look good. Any updates on those cells and what happened on the ground?
  24. Carvers Gap
    When is the last time that we had three consecutive La Nina winters?
  25. Carvers Gap
    But keep in mind some of those are very good years, we just missed by chance. '62 is the benchmark year for what a -NAO can do. We just missed by chance that year. Pretty sure not all areas missed on snow, especially far eastern areas and NE TN during 62. Interesting discussion for sure. Again, thanks a ton for everyone's hard work!
×
×
  • Create New...