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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Lots of blues, light blues, and dark blues on that Kuchera. That is a run for the ages right there. LOL Wow!!!!
  2. Carvers Gap
    And 240....yup. Let's reel one in from ten days out. LOL.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Long range discussion...but the Euro at 228 says, "Hello." @AMZ8990....waay out there, but that is two straight runs.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Not saying this is going to happen, bu the GEFS extended which comes out each evening was really a great looking pattern for much of its run.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Good find. Told tnweathernut he brought some good mojo this morning! LOL. If we can get any kind of ridge to pop out West, we are in business. I am not a huge fan of the 12z GEPS run, but it may just be noise at that range.
  6. Carvers Gap
    It has been so long since we have had a -NAO (strength, duration), almost tough to remember. LOL!
  7. Carvers Gap
    I have seen snow roll in out West one time which was similar to this - on June 14th!!! Got 5-6" of snow at 6,000'. Was an incredible day of fishing to boot. Motion is sped up a bit, but the wall of snow is what is impressive.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The 6z CFSv2 for this date is much colder than other modeling for January, but its MJO is also much different(and maybe wrong?) as it is an outlier. But it certainly shows how to have a cold-ish pattern.
  9. Carvers Gap
    LR after the New Year is full of uncertainty. MJO is showing some signs of heading to low amplitude warm phases or COD areas of the warm phases. Will the -NAO connect into a ridge over the EC? Will a western ridge form and couple with the NAO, and thus create a very wintry pattern? What about the SSW? I am less and less of an SSW person. We had a great one during a spring a few years back. However, we had a super pattern upended by one since then. As I watch modeling become more uncertain in the LR(even more so than it has been), makes me wonder if the SSW is wrecking havoc. One constant on nearly all modeling is a very persistent NAO. I think that feature has probably saved us from a torch after the first week of December when we lost the PNA. Would be awesome to see the PNA and NAO both in favorable phases. We may have a chance of that briefly at times. So what do I "think" about January. I think the NAO is going to be there through at least mid-month. I think there are times that block will be so expansive that it will connect with the eastern ridge. I think there will be times when it retracts and forces most storms underneath like we are seeing now. I think there are times when we will see brief windows of a western and/or east Pacific ridge coupled with that NAO. Right now the cold source region for air is going be much above normal re temps with the exception of Alaska. It is entirely possible that we see a pattern where Alaska is cold and areas of BN heights stretch SE into the lower 48(northern Plains into the Mid-West). I am not as encourage by that pattern as I was a few days ago. I think a potential SSW is going to make, and is currently making, any LR modeling solution extremely suspicious right now. Let's just hope it doesn't take a favorable pattern and squash it. OTH, if it is possible the SSW could funnel cold into NA, add in the NAO..and it could get interesting. About the only things that I have marginal confidence about are the NAO being a constant, a persistent southern storm track in conjunction with an equal or greater number of cutters, poor cold air sources, and the MJO working back into the COD areas(at least) of the warm phases - not all of those at the same time. Right now it is like a great pattern is competing with a really lousy pattern....some of each will likely show. I lean AN for temps in January with normal snowfall. The great looking pattern from a week ago seems far less certain today. I do think a western trough is in play now for January.
  10. Carvers Gap
    That is a nasty looking storm on the Euro after 200.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Great time lapse!
  12. Carvers Gap
    What is interesting about the control run, that is multiple storms which bring that about.
  13. Carvers Gap
    In all seriousness, the pattern that is being depicted on LR models and Weeklies runs(CFSv2 and Euro) has one of the most impressive NAO setups that I can remember. Pacific is TBD. That said, looks like we are going to see some storms take the low road. If that verifies, January would have some opportunities I think. Trying to temper my excitement. After last winter, anything looks better. But honestly, the overall pattern looks old school good at times.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Not to be used as a serious weather map, but the Euro Weeklies Control run says Merry Christmas to the entire freakin' forum.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies control.....
  16. Carvers Gap
    Will be very interesting to see the Euro Weeklies tonight at the EPS is out on a limb with its 0z look after d14. It could score the coup, but not a lot of support for that look right now from other global models. My guess is there is more of a trough in the East. There is one tucked under a monster NAO, but the EPS is trying to connect a ridge into the eastern lower 48. That "could" happen but seems unlikely. It and the GEFS will have to be watched for a GOA low. If you watch the 0z EPS side-by-side, you can see it correct eastward with a system just prior to 330. Now, since we know that is a bias...it can still be used and lines up nicely when that "golf handicap" is applied. That said, I think this bias in the LR is going to cause problems on the Weeklies as the are derived from the 0z run. All of that said, the EPS is a great example of how the NAO is muting a very bad Pacific set-up. If we could get the Pac on board, we would likely see a memorable pattern if the NAO were to hold. The 0z GEPS is quite close to that...GEFS is a nice compromise between the GEPS and EPS.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Found this to be a really interesting Tweet(saw this in the MA forum)...
  18. Carvers Gap
    Today's GEFS extended 35 day snow totals below. Also, take a look at the 18z CFSv2. It(CFSv2) bounces around quite a bit, but nice run for January. Anyway, the GEFS extended has snow all of the way to the Gulf Coast. I think that means a trace(or more) of snow would fall in all of the lower 48 by late January. If the advertised pattern verifies, there is a chance this has some merit. Huge grain of salt though as always at this range! Also, I do like this as it gives a good idea of where the storm tracks might be.....
  19. Carvers Gap
    MRX with an excellent write-up... The most uncertain part of the extended forecast will be the potential for snow across portions of the forecast area. Again as noted previously, there remains large disagreement with regards to how quick the cold front moves through the area, and how quickly the cold air is able to move into the region. The more progressive GFS suggests most of the precipitation will be out of the area by Thursday morning with snow showers from northwest flow aloft into Thursday night. The ECMWF and CMC are slower with a frontal passage late Thursday, but have trended a bit quicker than previous runs. Previous runs of the ECMWF depicted wrap around moisture and precipitation but the 12Z runs have backed off on this solution, and are in good agreement with the 12Z CMC. Climatologically speaking, such a deep trough should promote surface cyclogenesis somewhere across the southeast or mid Atlantic during this time. The 20.00 and 20.12 suite of guidance is suggestive of this solution but again there remains a lot of uncertainty regarding where this low sets up and how strong the low will be. All of this will play an integral role in how much moisture will be left over for potential wintry precipitation. The official forecast as of this afternoon suggests temperatures will fall behind the front late Thursday and into Thursday night. Rain will change over to snow from west to east late Thursday with light snow showers or flurries lingering across northern portions of the forecast area through Friday. It is still too early to forecast snow amounts with any amount of certainty. What is more certain is that temperatures will plummet behind the front with deep troughing expected. Temperatures as much as 10-20 degrees below average is a good probability at this point. An increasing pressure gradient immediately behind the front will create gusty gradient winds across most of the area. These winds will obviously bring cold wind chills to the area Friday morning and Saturday morning. Surface high pressure settles into the region Saturday and into Sunday with building heights as a ridge builds into the plains. Temperatures will begin to slightly moderate with this building ridge but will continue to be below climatology.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Will keep it quick...Seems like models are narrowing down to a solution which will involve a wave running along a very strong cold front on Christmas Eve. I have been using the term "low confidence" during the past few days. Sometimes waves/weak slp along a front a money and sometimes not. Super difficult to predict due to timing and location of the disturbance along the boundary in relation to our location. For now, looks to me like a strengthening area of slp will slide through western North Carolina. Normally, that track is bad mojo for E TN. With the cold air modeled to quickly rush into the region, there is a chance that this might involve accumulating snow north of I40 in the eastern Valley. Any amount of snow is a bonus on Christmas! After last winter, tracking a potential winter event this year is pretty awesome. Either way, cold air will quickly spread into the region on Thursday night. My "lean" is that this could strengthen over time as models now seem to have the synoptics of the storm within their grasp. Lots of speculation in that last sentence, so take with a huge grain! As for a second wave which accentuates the snow on the back side, big question mark. If it does not feed into the front, it likely could keep snow in the air on Christmas days with intermittent snow showers. The next 24 hours of modeling will likely tell us if this storm will be a nuisance or something bigger. If anyone is traveling through the Appalachian Mountains on Christmas Eve(specifically I--26, I-40, or I-81), they need to stay up-to-date regarding local weather forecasts.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Liking that the Euro and GFS are back with a storm....Bigger deal is they are both now showing a stronger push of cold air. The Euro was missing that a few runs ago. The 0z Euro had some anomalies of -25 below normal(not an actual temp) over the eastern valley with highs in the mid 20s north of I40 and from points east of Nashville. Chattanooga may not get out of the low to mid 30s according to the 0z Euro on Christmas Day - unless their highs at midnight are warm(temps rapidly dropping throughout the day). The 6z GFS is much colder with temps in the single digits to lower teens on Christmas morning in NE TN with temps not getting out of the teens during the day. Christmas night is very gold on the Canadian and American models. It seemed yesterday that the storm was weaker when the cold was not as expansive or severe. Something to watch.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Basically, a double block - Atlantic and Pacific in the LR.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Really like where the ensembles 12z GEPS and 18z GEFS are headed.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Again, have said if for days...very LOW confidence right now. Think about this, models originally had a total torch(and I mean raging torch) beginning on the 18th. As for the potential Christmas event, all of the normal model biases are in play. I do not buy the models which are holding too much energy back. Not sure I buy the models that are too quick either. Right now, this reminds me(in some ways) very much of the early December track which hammered the Midwest. One important piece is that the GFS brings a much colder (and bigger) air mass. It is an outlier in this regard. However, we know the Euro has a bias of not "seeing" cold air masses and their deepening troughs. I don't have a ton invested right now. Our last major snow was over two years ago IMBY. So, I don't hold my breath too much. If we get the Christmas storm great, if not....historically always a long shot to get big snows on Christmas at lower elevations. And right now this pattern is a good one for higher elevations, and not so much for lower elevations at this latitude. My gut tells me there will be a storm, but likely rain in the far eastern areas(low elevations) with more wintery precise the further west one goes from I75...again, just a guess. The LR is growing more uncertain with each day - after showing a promising pattern for several weeks. I think the uncertainty of the MJO is disrupting modeling. I think we are entering a time frame of great uncertainty - much more so than a normal year. I think we will have our chances during January and maybe later this month. This pattern is far more active than I thought it would be, and that is a good thing.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Guessing the Euro/UKMet are a bit slow wit the energy to our southwest and the GFS a bit too fast. Blend those solutions, and looks decent to me. I agree with tnweathernut above in this aspect, that powerhouse low is what is driving the cold front. Many a winter storm has been born on a trailing cold front - been a while since that has happened here. Will be interesting to see the ensembles for the Euro in terms of slp locations.
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