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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Working on that post. No, Atlantic blocking help is not being consistently shown. With the positive AMO, the Atlantic will not be dependable until it flips. Probably several years before that pattern shifts. The +AMO has an excellent correlation to the current stretch of poor winters that we are having. I recommend reading PSU's discussion in the MA forum from yesterday. The analog years that match this pattern when rolled forward required an NAO for winter to continue. Those missing the NAO saw a hostile Pacific help. PSU has hard data to answer your question.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Just watched JB this AM...he makes a lot of good points. The warm water of NW Australia is causing the convection in the 4-6 regions to really be enhanced. So, every time a wave hits that region the convections goes nuts. So, basically we go 4, 5, and 6 which is warmth followed by a cold down as the convection leaves those areas. He did point out(and the individual MJO model members are not out yet on CPC) that the ECMWF has been correcting into 8 prior to crossing the COD into warm phases. If(and I don't think it is a certainty) the MJO regions fires, it will be a prolonged period of warmth. As I said earlier(not from JB), going to need the Atlantic to help. I just don't think the Pacific is going to do it.
  3. Carvers Gap
    All major ensembles show incredible warmth after d10(if one assumes the worst warmth is being muted...some cold runs in there making it look cooler) with an almost uncanny similarities at 500. If the cooler runs are eliminated from the ensemble, that is a very warm look. So, I am not going to belabor the point...that is near record warmth for days on end being shown. The RMM1/GEFS has caved to the ECMWF with the MJO which means that the American suite was wrong both in its LR forecast and with the MJO. Not a lot of sugar coating. That is an extreme warms signal showing up on the LR that would take some time to break down. I am not sure I am to the point where I buy what the EPS/GEFS/GEPS are selling, but those three in lock step have to be heard from. To me this is the September, October, November pattern repeating itself. Problem is, we don't really want one month of record temps followed by cold in March. I still think this pattern breaks...it is due. That said, if the MJO goes into phase 4 and crawls, the game is up. At this point, seems fairly obvious it is headed there, but for how long? So, I think a period of warmth is probable and likely record warmth for 7-10 days beginning around January 12th. What I am not sure about is the hp in the eastern Pacific just spinning ad nauseam. Something would inevitably kick that out of the way like we are seeing between the 6th-9th. Looks like a base "much above normal" pattern after d10 with shots of seasonal air. Like last year, the MJO is now threatening to go high amplitude and hold. I am just not sure I buy that. So, instead of buying into the "end of winter forecast," I think I am going to go with Jan 12th-22nd-ish is going to be a torch. Our one ray of hope is the Euro operational at d10 really did not look like it was heading in the direction of the ensemble. That is two runs that has happened. One last note, how many times have we seen modeling in lock-step only to be wrong? Often. However, there is good evidence behind the warm-up with the MJO. IMHO, we need the Atlantic to begin to cooperate as I think the Pacific is like lost for some time. More later...just getting up to speed. OTH, when models lock into warm patterns over the SE...they rarely break.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Wow, we were at Market Square around 4:30PM or so. We caught a play at the Tennessee Theater and then walked around.
  5. Carvers Gap
    If I was going to pull a rabbit out of a hat(cold wx pattern from the clutches of a warm one in the LR)...I would begin first by saying that the operationals are not overly in sync with their ensembles.
  6. Carvers Gap
    We actually broke our record high here. Looks like 73 was the high today which broke the record high from....wait for it....1954. Really stinks to be reliving that year. LOL.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Wurbus, I was in Knoxville today at the Tennessee Theater. Was incredible how warm it was. Literally, was like summer.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Lol. Yes, it was. LOL. Wow. @Blue Ridge
  9. Carvers Gap
    We are down to our last model now...the CFSv2 is still standing with cold. It handles the MJO much differently and is a total outlier. To paraphrase Star Wars...it is our only hope. The warm trend was a strong one today. If the MJO strolls through the warm phases(I still have serious doubts about that) as suggested by the ECMWF, spring will be here in a couple of weeks. I don't think that is true...but that is the implication. We will have stuff budding out shortly. Truly feels like a summer evening outside with it being 68F at 8:40PM at night.
  10. Carvers Gap
    68F at 8:40PM. Feels like June. As with September but on a smaller scale and duration...incredible warmth for this time of year.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Here is my lone wx nugget this AM...The CFSv2f flipped at the last minute for January on this morning's run. Take it with a grain of salt as it is often a flavor of the month type model. Have to watch its trends late. Might be a blip....might not. Worth keeping an eye on...The RMM1 MJO is less than favorable, but I still suspect that is not settled.
  12. Carvers Gap
    0z GEFS not there. It might be playing catch-up...not sure. Quick nugget for those that don't know, the Pivotal Wx site updates the ensemble for the GEFS about as quick as I can find it.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Agree on model trust...Just speculation, but if one really wants winter, have the PV split and that piece in Quebec dive into an eastern trough. Then we are cooking with gas.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Unless my eyes are fooling me, around 300 the PV at 500mb splits for a bit before roughly reconsolidating.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The CMC has a fantasy land storm barely right about d9.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I mean we have been looking at run after run after run of huge eastern ridges...not so much. Lots of red seemingly at high latitudes. As an operational it is no nailed anything down yet, but seems to be a fairly strong signal that high latitude blocking is at least "considering" a return. The AN heights over the pole would also signal a displaced TPV. Lots of moving parts, but glad to see the last several weeks of modeling get knocked off its spot. Has a slight November feel to modeling without going to overboard.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Where the heck did the ridge at 500 go on the 0z GFS?
  18. Carvers Gap
    Interestingly, the operational run of the 18z GFS reversed the heights over Alaska and the ensemble reversed the heights over Greenland. LOL. The 12z EPS completely reversed heights over AK from beginning to end. So, it may be that something is afoot at higher latitudes. Lots of flip flopping usually implies a shake-up, but we will see. If you can get your hands on the EPS mean...take a look at Alaska at 500. Impressive change. Other than that, lots of volatility after this cold shot during the second week of January.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Looked a lot like the 12z Euro. The big thing of note are complete reversal of heights over Alaska.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Man, that is like night and day. I know it is an operational, but just going to enjoy that run.
  21. Carvers Gap
    How are we feeling about the 18z GFS?
  22. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS backed it up...welp. Very slight changes and could just be ebb and flow...yet another cool 12z run for the EPS.
  23. Carvers Gap
    But dang, it is about time for something to break....LOL. Maybe that is the beginning of a trend vs being an outlier.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The reason I don't buy the run is that the Euro looks like it over accentuates a hp dropping into Southern California early in the run. That slight accentuation allowed for an outlier PNA to pop. Europe warmth doesn't teleconnect well with eastern cold either. Don't get me wrong, I will take it...but looks suspicious.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Not sure that I buy it, but the 12z Euro just popped a western ridge and dug a huge eastern trough. Doesn't teleconnect well, but we'll take it...Europe is really warm.
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