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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Talk about some cold ensemble runs today. Wow. That EPO ridge in conjunction with a mid-Atlantic ridge will create a block that could potentially discharge very cold air into much of the United States and Canada. I definitely want to see some run-to-run continuity before really jumping on the cold train. The MJO gives me some pause. But make not mistake, if those ensembles(EPS and GEFS at 12z) verify, that would create a highway for cold air to reach clear to the GOM.
  2. Carvers Gap
    That is a BIG drop of the SOI. And the 12z EPS. That is an incredibly cold look during the d10-15.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Indeed, the MJO this morning progresses into 7 and loops back into 6 which explains some of what we are seeing on modeling this morning in terms of a step back. My guess is that (if it does that), it will eventually loop back or not happen at all. But one can see why modeling is flip-flopping. Yesterday's MJO was nearly textbook for cold...overnight, not so much.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The weather pattern that many are focusing on is about ten days out, maybe nine now. The Euro OP was likely heading to an eastern trough late in its run. The 6z GEFS is definitely there. I wasn't a huge fan of the EPS overnight as I thought it took a step back. The Weeklies two runs ago(on Monday) pushed a temporary trough eastward in early January, and then pulled it back West for most of January. OTH the Weeklies on Thursday, pulled it back and then eventually would send multiple shots of progressively seasonal to cold air eastward - looked like November. The 12z EPS yesterday looked firmly in the camp of Thursday's run. The 0z overnight still looked like Thursday's run, but slower...almost to the point it looks similar to Monday's bearish run. The models showing something good and then pulling it back has been happening for about a month. If one just splits the difference, like means we are dealing with some above normal heights over the coastal SE for a time(likely won't stay there as El Nino climatology really won't want it there). Bottom line: Proceed with caution, but also know we are approaching the time when modeling potentially could begin showing signs of a flip. We have been AN since roughly the beginning of the second week of December. Patterns usually(barring last winter's catastrophe...LOL) run about 4-6 weeks. So, I could see a couple of realistic scenarios. The warm pattern (that we have been in for a couple of weeks already) ends prematurely around January 1 OR the pattern relaxes around January 1 only to flip a couple of weeks later in mid-January. December 7 to Jan 15 is about 39 day(almost six weeks). It is very possible the models are jumping the gun, will pull back, and eventually buy in. Remember how the warm-up was modeled? Sort of went like this during several model suites in succession: warm, cold, warm, warm, cold, warm, warm, warm....and the warm pattern kept getting pushed back and eventually arrived during the second week of December. I would not be surprised if we see that same progression as we turn much colder. The real fly in the ointment is if the TPV just sits up around the North Pole and tightens up. They are due a cold winter at that very high latitude. So there is that. Will be interesting to follow the MJO saga this morning. Back to loading...keep the fires burning!
  5. Carvers Gap
    If you all don't care...I say let's have @AMZ8990 rename this thread to December and January Speculation Thread if that is cool. I think most of the discussion will focus on late December and early January from here on out. Lots of great discussion. I am pretty much too tired to type a much else. Great model trends during the past two days. And to be clear, this is not a model flip IMHO. This is just the potential pattern after the warm-up.
  6. Carvers Gap
    There have been several MJO forecasts already this season that have wanted to take it into the warm phases...and it doesn't verify there. Interesting conversation about the potential issues with the MJO interference and forecast issues. And I do think the global models do take into account the MJO itself which might be why we have seen so much variation in their potential outcomes. I have simply resorted to looking at the satellite for the Indian Ocean and MC regions.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Good trends for the past day for sure!
  8. Carvers Gap
    @TellicoWx, you need to post more. LOL. That is some good stuff on the QBO, MJO,...stuff. You are bringing it this morning. You too, Holston.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Descending simply means moving down to lower altitudes. Check. So, looks like a preponderance of high altitude winds in that area of the world have switched to the east. Looks like it has almost flipped at 30 which has decent correlation to high latitude blocking of which were are seeing some signs now in the longer range. Last year, the positive QBO(westerly) was taking over and I think that had something to do with our warm second half of winter(that and the SSW that dumped West). As Jeff has noted, the actually movement of the index is likely the trigger vs the actually raw negative or positive number....though, it going negative is not going to hurt. There is also some research that indicates that solar cycle state also influences the QBO. In other words, it behaves differently(quite differently) during maxs and mins which is why sometimes the QBO doesn't line up cleanly with surface weather. But in general, very good sign.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Very good trends on overnight modeling...As John noted, the EPS has cold in here by the New Year. The ridge begins to erode on December 28 around hour 204 with a full latitude trough in place by 300+. Let's see if the full latitude trough idea is just the ensemble trying to figure out which area of NA to put the trough - meaning some members may be west and some east, thus creating the false appearance of a full latitude trough. That could mean a continuation of the trough out West, trough east , or the rare feature which is the full latitude trough. Light years better than 48 hours ago. It is not so much that the model has flipped. It has not. It is simply that we are are now far enough along to see the end of the pattern. It also might be a hair quicker. The Weeklies give me greater confidence that we indeed have a shot at getting out of this. A word of caution, sometimes models will hurry a pattern and we don't know if this is just a relaxation of the current warmish pattern. That said, the change would be very representative of several Nino analogs including the 14-15 analog that someone mentioned in the thread(Tellico or Holston or Boone?). Additionally, we need to keep an eye on the MJO as it was not favorable yesterday. Would be pretty rare to get a cold snap with it stalled in phase 6 or 7... Also, unless I am reading this incorrectly, looks like the QBO is almost(edit...evidently I can't read a graph) negative at 30. It is also common for 30 to flip prior to 50. Let's get that MJO headed in the right direction so we don't get a head fake with this look. Will look at it later. Note: That said, this site lists the QBO as negative(easterly). Looks to me like that is positive at 30. Any ideas on why that is? I mean that is awesome if it is already negative, but that is now how I read it at 30. https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html
  11. Carvers Gap
    The Weeklies feature a fairly significant break in continuity and one that actually connects well to the afternoon Euro run(Weeklies are derived from the morning run). Last year, the Weeklies rarely matched what was actually on the EPS. These match. Let's see if this break in continuity actually holds. Been far too many false starts this winter for me to buy in just yet...but that pattern on the 12z EPS and the Weeklies is probably better than just a "good pattern." Would like to be able to say, "That is the break we have been looking for...." Not ready to say that yet, but that those two model runs have "winter" written all over them. Indeed, they look like....November. Now, if we can just get the atmospheric river event out of the way before the Rose Bowl Parade is held!
  12. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies looked good...entire run. Big grain of salt... Looks like the pattern is cold into the northern Rockies that kicks eastward.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I don't see anything on the 12z GEFS run that inclines me to think any cold outbreaks are headed our way for quite some time. My week two cool-off is severely in doubt. Warm run. edit: Not even one cold front makes this way after hour 54.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I do think we get a transient shot of cold air during the second week of January...that will be a window to watch as the STJ has not relaxed a bit. There are sort of two camps regarding good snow patterns.... 1. Those who want plenty of cold air in repetitive shots... 2. Those who want an active precip pattern... I don't think the first choice is going to be an option for some time. But that second choice is probably going to be in place for some time. Any cold shot from here on out probably is going to have winter tracking with it. Those cold shots are likely very transient. However, it won't take much cold with an active STJ for things to get interesting. IMHO, we could see some snow chances in January despite AN temps. Just need one or two cold shots, even if just 3-4 days at a time. I think February will be a good month. Tellico has a good analog to support that. And the current pattern should have run its course by then provide we don't get some SSW that dumps into the West like last year. You all keep the fires burning for the next couple of days...going to be helping with loading the band's equipment for the Rose Bowl Parade. Shipping 300+ instruments and all of their gear cross country is like moving a house!
  15. Carvers Gap
    Good post. I think that year is an excellent analog...a lot of similarities in both timing and how the actual pattern evolved. The QBO should be working for us very soon as well. I would not be surprised in the least to see a similar evolution with this year's pattern. I think if/when the pattern flips...it will be a pretty stunning reversal. Last year, obviously that did not happen but the atmosphere was dealing with a La Nina hangover. I said it last winter and I will say it now...this is exactly why I don't like El Nino winters. Just takes forever until we actually get to prime months. Then, if things don't work out...kick in the pants for sure. Pretty much during El Nino winters, we head into the bottom of the ninth down 3 with the bases loaded w/ the heart of our line-up on deck. No guarantee of a win, but you have had to sit through the entire game just to get to the best part - and it still might not work out.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Man, I hate brining the heat...LOL. Yes, agree we likely flip cold at some point, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a substantial flip. Not seeing the flip yet...but 14-15 saw a super warm December I think that eventually flipped cold. The Indian Ocean deal is probably my biggest concern regarding any flip, but Nino climatology supports a cold second half of winter. That said, last winter's scars make me less confident. LOL. I feel like we looked for a flip that never came. I do think this winter will be different. While repeating weather patterns are not an uncommon phenomena...they do end. And I shouldn't be surprised at the warm December after mentioning it months ago...just not any fun talking about it. Hopefully, the rest of that forecast from June will come to pass with a cold second half of winter. Again, I am actually not that discouraged with the past two runs of the EPS.
  17. Carvers Gap
    It is official. The GEFS has caved 100% to the Euro in the LR. I will be interested to see where the Euro Weeklies go with the pattern tonight, not so much after week four, but where it would take the pattern week 3 and 4. They were workable on Monday. What the "cave" by the GEFS means?...the EPS is likely hitting form as it has been locked onto this pattern for a couple of weeks. Also, when I talk great winters...I mean great snowstorms. Many of those are found between mid-Jan to mid-Feb. I think at this point, there is nothing we can do. We will just try to sort out when/if this pattern is going to change before winter is over. Hoping for a flip. That is not very scientific, but is about all we have at this point.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Convection is found across the entire Indian Ocean basin as of mid-day.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Changing wavelengths prevent a bad pattern from locking-in often during shoulder season. Once the winter season settles-in, those drivers have a lot more strength. This is an ugly pattern coming up, but I think folks have been fairly warned for some time that multiple indices soured a couple of weeks ago. This warm-up and its duration should be no surprise. Nino winters generally start warm, sometimes very warm. That is in my notes from June about winter. Can't get more warning than that. LOL. Now, some don't like the 12z EPS. Looks good to me as it lowers heights in the East. We will get a temporary cold shot I think during the second week of January followed by more warm. What is tough is that we all think about last year and worry about a repeat. These Nino winters can and do flip on a dime, and they don't care about past statistics. I fully expect a flip to happen similar to what happened during fall. It gets old repeating that flips do happen, especially last year when it didn't happen at all. That said, I still suspect we see a very sharp reversal at some point...but make no mistake, we have plenty of warm weather before we get there. But it is always wise to remember, some of our best winters were had after VERY warm starts to winter, even including large portions of January. Might happen and might not this winter...but I can just about guarantee we will see multiple( great winters during the future that begin warm.
  20. Carvers Gap
    LOL. No surprise at all....not that the EPS is much better during d10-15. Unless we get a surprise, IMHO at least a couple of more weeks before we leave this hostile pattern.
  21. Carvers Gap
    And the 18z GEFS is why I will never share a foxhole with that model during a model war. It caved to yesterday's EPS. Today's 12z EPS doesn't look so bad. They kid of sort of switched roles today...The EPS has made a natural progression to an eastern trough while the GEFS just flip flopped. I actually thought the 12z EPS looked quite decent. Now, the 18z GEFS should bring back some pretty bad memories. Going to be a while before we get out of this pattern.
  22. Carvers Gap
    So, the moral to that story^^^^, the Atlantic is our only hope. Like that Star Wars tip of the hat?
  23. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the Indian Ocean has re-fired...lots and lots and lots of convection. That usually signals anomalous warmth over the eastern US down the line. At this point, really getting tough to find any indicators outside of the ENSO state that favor cold in the East. That said, I do think ENSO is a trump card...beats all others. The MJO looks like both the American and Euro suites now like the idea of the MJO moving into phase 7 and stalling. The EPS today did look a bit better. The GEFS is its usual and biased Arctic self. Overall, I think whatever cold shot we get in early January is now appearing as if will be a relaxation of the current warm pattern for eastern NA vs being a new base state cold pattern. I still think we see winter...but man, really don't like seeing what is going on in the Indian Ocean. That sunk us last winter. I have said that the current warm pattern would last 3-5 weeks. I think we see cold by the end of the first week of January...then the warmth returns for a significant amount of time. I think by the end of January, we will see maybe two weeks of seasonal weather...the rest warm....just kicking around that idea. January is a transitional month during Ninos and makes for a wicked tough month to get a handle on things. If the MJO verifies...isotherm's forecast is money. My confidence in seeing significant, sustained cold prior to February is pretty shaky. I don't like banging the warm drum...climatology based on ENSO is about the only thing we have going for us. The EPS, while it looks better, blocks cold from entering NA with low pressure at high latitudes. So, we finally get the block...no source region - at least on today's model run.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Some baby steps by the 0z EPS this AM...still a warm pattern but one can see how we might get out of it. The thing that concerns me right now is that the trough inexplicably really wants to go into the West on the Euro Weeklies even after we cool down in early January. The Weeklies are likely swinging wildly after week four, but we are at the time of year where the Euro Weeklies have some weight. The GEFS is way out on a limb. I think this AM one could make a case that the EPS maybe moved towards the GEFS a hair. That said, just when you think one model caves...everything goes haywire. The GEFS is a much different solution and is juxtaposed the EPS. In the end I think the slower EPS is probably the right way to go, and that the GEFS has sniffed out a potential pattern change OR instead of a pattern change... just that the western trough/eastern ridge pattern relaxes for a week or so. So right now(fingers crossed), looks like the first week of January is a transitional period...and the second week of January cold. The third and fourth week of January are up for grabs. Again, we need to really hope the GEFS is correct. It is quicker by four or five days regarding the pattern change...but it has cried wolf for about four weeks so difficult to trust it.
  25. Carvers Gap
    I did see that...I would personally clean up his statement by saying the EPS has a hard time seeing cold regarding its 2m temp pattern any time of the year and also during shoulder season. Its 500 pattern is very understandable given the nature of the convection in the eastern IO. The GEFS is at the time of the year where it whiffs pretty badly. I have noted, and USAF in the MA forum noted this tonight, that the GFS/GEFS sniffed out the cold in November first. That said, it is a completely different time of year. I think we turn cold by the second week of January as I think the GFS/GEFS is too quick and is an outlier among global models and their ensembles right now. Bottom line: In the d10-15 one model is going to be badly, badly incorrect on a pretty epic level - and I am not sharing a foxhole with the GEFS in a model war. The GEFS has a chance of being right, but let's not forget that it has basically been cold for all of December during d10-15 and been woefully wrong. TRI sits at +2.7 for December....not in torch territory but pretty close. The GEFS never saw it coming.
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