Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    16,806

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think we are gonna have to be really wary of any advertised pattern flip. At some point, it will happen. That said, we are on year 3 of a very similar pattern during late fall/winter which displaces cold air into the northern Rockies. They absolutely got hammered in wester WY this past weekend. They get snow, but that was like a Sierra Nevada storm for them. I think we will get some passing cold shots. I am just about ready to write-off December through at least Dec 20th. If I do, you can thank me when the models flip cold the next day. There is a part of me that says modeling is mishandling the pattern after Dec 1 as blocking is notorious for causing snafus in modeling. That said, I just don't see many cold outbreaks on the horizon. Honestly, this is how moderate to strong LaNina's work - very few chances if any. I still think we get a window during December(maybe right before Christmas) and then another during January. But I will echo my winter forecast idea remarks, there are going to be long stretches with next to zero threats IMO. All of that said, modeling is notoriously fickle. It can change in the drop of a hat. I am not really discouraged at this point, because this is no surprise at all.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I feel certain that we have some actual farmers on this forum, even if they just lurk some. @Coach B, is this in your wheelhouse?
  3. Carvers Gap
    Man, you know TN football has gone into the crapper when I am on here talking weather during football season on a Saturday. Kind of appreciate the cancellation today so as not to have to watch sub-par football. If they take our basketball season and we deal with cloudy and 50 all winter...going to be a grumpy bunch of posters!
  4. Carvers Gap
    Welcome aboard! Yeah, great weather forum. Too many great posters to name.
  5. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Watch, we will track this pattern change and it will turn out to be only a passing front...remember that from the last two winters? But nah, I think we have a shot here at some colder weather.
  6. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS again showing some very significant blocking at high latitude. Oddly, the Euro(as John noted last night) appears to have caught some changes before the GFS. It has been my experience(that even though it has a very bad cold bias), when in shoulder season the upgraded GFS tends to catch shoulder-season pattern changes and lock on. I should also add that the GEPS has also been early on picking out this potential change. Ensembles sometimes are a little slow to catch pattern changes, because they wash them out. That said, we want to see the changes begin to show on the ensembles now as the timeframe gets closer during the next few days. The trend seems to be every so slightly towards a significant cool down after Thanksgiving or right around it.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Have to hit the sack. Let's hope we see more of the runs which are similar auto the 12z EPS control and 0z GFS.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I think La Nina really favors Arkansas quite a bit. I like Jeff because he doesn't Twitter hype or talk cryptically. Plus, he is a met for our region where those two don't work our area(no disrespect to them).
  9. Carvers Gap
    Agree. I trust Jeff the most. Maybe we can get the Chattanooga area some snow this winter as payment for his work!
  10. Carvers Gap
    Only because we have had next to nothing to talk about will I give the LR GFS any air time...(LOL) but what is being depicted on that run is the beginning of winter for us. No idea if it verifies. Modeling has been hinting at a flip for a few days. The GFS is world renown for jumping into the deep end a bit too quickly. One of the better runs of this early season.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, Jeff hinted at a post-Thanksgiving cool down. Those are several really good sources. What happens after d10 would be a complete reversal of our current pattern(at least temporarily). That said...every, single time that has been shown this fall actual verification put the tough out West. There seems to major model bias almost universally to dumping cold eastward and reverting back westward as reality approaches. But some of the d10+ looks have been interesting to say the least.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that is the GFS and yeah that is a LONG WAY out there...but that run should wake a few folks up from their long summer naps.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Lots of late night content for those early morning risers...the 0z GFS is less on board with Webber's comments from earlier today(reversal of heights in AK) BUT there does seem to be an Aleutian low showing up fairly consistently. During the past few winters, that has usually set the stage for what meager winter offerings which we have scored with...and I mean meager. That low tends to pump the EPO/PNA ridge (even if temporarily), and forces an eastern trough. One can see that pretty clearly after d10 with the 48 hour 500 trend on Tropical Tidbits. Big banana high over the top, and that would be an EC storm signal past 300. But as a friend of mine would say...but is it right? No idea! LOL.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies certainly hinted that high latitude blocking may well form and push storms into the "low road." Lots of moving parts right now, and highly doubt any modeling has this nailed at this range. Much of what is being discussed is in week 2 and even week 3.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Modeling is definitely not there yet I should add...the 12z EPS control has the path towards a colder EC. Modeling has been slowly becoming murkier. I have generally found that when modeling goes a bit "haywire" during later fall and/or winter....really cold air is entering into NA. Again, I think it is way too early to say where it goes or even that it is a certainty that cold is coming. The very LR stuff out there right now is hinting that early to mid Dec may get cold. I would be down with that since my winter forecast would be in good shape - I actually didn't change it. Just am rolling the dice and staying with my original ideas.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Pretty reliable person on Twitter....One could probably connect what Masiello and Webb are discussing. We have seen plenty of head fakes this fall with almost every head fake resulting in a western trough and record cold there. However, the MJO in conjunction with changes in blocking at high latitudes "might" be signaling that the next outbreak will be further eastward. Whether that is in the center of the country or here in the TN Valley forum area...I don't know.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I went back and looked at his posts on this...sometimes his posts are tough for me to decipher. From what I can gather, that region has been promoting a SE ridge - that MJO area has been a thorn for a couple of winters. He made a correct call back in Oct that the SER was going to lock in. Best I can gather is that he is saying that region in the western Pacific will now begin to interfere with the signal which has produced this monster EC ridge. Lots of debate on what the MJO is about to do. Modeling has definitely trended away from a strong ridge pattern(after next week) to more of an uncertain mix of signals. I mean really we have had a standing wave over the EC for several days in the from of a ridge. I think his post is basically saying that is about to change later this month. Good find. Anyone else is free to jump right in.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Seems to be a continued attempt at reshuffling the pattern later this month - just to echo what Jeff and others have stated.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies have your back on pretty much all of that. Not a terrible look after Thanksgiving. Thanks for keeping us updated. How do the clusters look on the Euro Weeklies?
  20. Carvers Gap
    Some great information above by John about weather stations. Enjoyed reading that. Looks like TRI has tied two record highs. One on the 9th and then yesterday the 11th. The aren't in the record book yet, so will wait for confirmation from the MRX. This week has fell like summer. Yesterday was a whopping 21 degrees AN and our fourth straight day of double digit departures AN.
  21. Carvers Gap
    I truly don't understand the warmth around the PV. Seems like that would split it or maybe it means it is tightening up.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Holston, all of that sounds bad. Is some of that good? QBO at 30mb may be poised to hit positive levels(regarding January) that we have not seen in some time. It is really high even now.
  23. Carvers Gap
    TRI is currently at 76F which ties the record high for this date.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think as long as the equatorial western Pacific is warm....that is a problem here. I think the overall Pac basin is warmer than normal and is "washing out" the usual ENSO analog stuff(Typhoon Tip has a lot of info on this) due to the gradient being weaker around each ENSO event. That western Pac area is sending the MJO into 4-5 during winter at high amplitude multiple times. But maybe a point could be made that the normal analogs don't actually work right now with SSTs AN in the Pac Basin. I have certainly considered that. I think there is a school of thought in our forum(which I agree with more and more with each passing season) that each year is its own analog. I do think we see 1-2 really severe cold shots. Nina's tend to have those (unless the Nina is really strong). I also think we deal with a very persistent Southeast Ridge. We have already seen some really severe cold in the West this fall. What we need is for the jet to buckle in the East and have one of those shots head this way. But really, we pretty much know that seasonal forecasting can be a crap shoot....so, I truly don't rule anything out.
  25. Carvers Gap
    I agree, with the ENSO state considered. I think we possibly get a storm window in early-mid Dec. We had a similar pattern last winter with no cold....might be a similar result if the models are even halfway correct. Moderate to strong La Nina's are generally very hostile for snow IMBY...further west in the forum area, they can score with that ENSO pattern.
×
×
  • Create New...