Carvers Gap

TRI through October 7th, has a higher high-temp average than both high temp averages for August and September...I think that is right. I still have a difficult time believing that! That said, it has been a scorcher today. The wind felt like a hair dryer. But we can now see the light at the end of the tunnel....I feel fairly safe in saying that these types of temps (weeks on end) of highs in the mid/upper 80s, and low 90s is basically over. I am sure there will be something of a last gasp. I think we will even see periods of AN temps...but not to this extreme. This beats anything in my memory. It has been so hot that it probably deserved its own thread. But let it be said, the 72 hour countdown to end this crap has finally begun! The BOHICA summer is about at an end.

Seems like that has a trough east of HI and one in the SE(both good teleconnections) w marginal source regions for cold. IMHO, that is indeed a decent storm track...rainy looking but maybe we can steal a few wet snows from that look. I would be surprised if the northern Plains were warm. I think we will have a net trough w cold diving in from Canada(Canadian air and not Arctic for the most part) through the Plains w the SER fighting like crazy all winter. That really looks like that model wants a moderate Nino which I am not sure verifies...going to be a close call between good and meh.

Auburn opened as a 19.5 point favorite over Tennessee. Wow. Meanwhile, a hurricane may be brewing in the GOM.

LOL. Well, you know it is bad when we are trying to convince the other that our own team doesn't have the mojo to win. Just now saw the score for you all. Well, the good thing about next Saturday is that one of our teams will get a W...Maybe one of our teams will look good doing it.

Kamara sitting on the bench....malpractice on Jones' part. Yeah, we will give Pruitt time for sure, but it is frustrating seeing teams flip the script quicker than we do. I do like Pruitt. Problem w Pruitt turning it around...let's just hope it does not correlate to the departure of Saban. And I do think Pruitt gets it done, but there are lingering doubts as to weather our OC has ability. The offensive line has been so bad...not sure anyone can call a reasonable sequence of plays to account for the number of whiffs. Right now, Auburn is just better than us. Could we steal it? Anything can happen on a given Saturday. Our kids haven't won an SEC game in almost two years...going to be tough to break the streak. The mentality of losing is very tough to break.

As for the Vols, I am glad they fought against UGA. I am growing tired of moral victories, but I also understand that Pruitt has his work cut out for him. There are times that they are really difficult to watch - just some really bad football on offense (just pick your reason). I think the defense has made great strides. The offense looks about as bad as I have ever seen it, especially up front. At some point, I hope we can take a big step forward. I like Pruitt. I think he is a good teacher of the game, and tough when he needs to be. Right now, the team is made up o 3/4 Butch guys, and 1/4 Pruitt guys(and those kids were recruited w a very short recruiting cycle due to timing of the NCAA Dec signing). I think it will take 2-3 years for him to establish the standard for which we will play by. Unless something drastic happens, I don't think anyone is going to catch Bama(likely UGA as well now) anytime soon. I think if we can get to where we can win 8-9 games consistently, that will be a nice benchmark. I am not convinced that the pieces are in place in Knoxville to put a championship team on the field. Could it happen? Sure. Until we have a new university president and a full board of trustees, we don't really know if they want football healthy. FTR, I really like Fulmer and think he is one piece to the puzzle in our favor. Still, we need some other pieces to fit into place. We also need to get the SEC schedule corrected so these murderer's row type schedules can be minimized. Next year's SEC schedule is much improved for UT. I have minimal hopes for a bowl game this year, but stranger things have happened. On to the bye week...and then @Auburn and then Bama at home during consecutive weeks. It is the equivalent of this fall's, never-ending ridge...FL, UGA, Auburn, and Bama back-to-back-to-back-to-back. Tough to rebuild on that schedule. Three top ten teams in a row...

Here is a nugget from the CANSIPS that is released at the beginning of each month. Also, admittedly I am cherry-picking a good look. Though, other LR models have depicted this off/on for the past few months. This is for January. Basically, November and December transition to this look. February is similar, but the pattern is breaking down. The 2m temps are normal over the SE which tells me the source region is not overly cold. IMHO, the CANSIPS can have a warm bias(I am not saying that just because it does not have us as BN). Overall, the 500 map has plenty of features in the right places. Would anyone care to share what the new Euro forecasts for NDJFM look like?

Absolutely. Ditto.

Man, just now saw this for some reason. Hope you get it figured out! Hospital visits are no fun. Appreciate the wx update as well. Feel better soon!

Another interesting stat and I think this is correct...we set no new record highs at TRI during September even though the month was a scorcher.

Grabbed this from the SE forum...that is some serious heat.

Great find. Going to borrow this for the TN forum. For us in NE TN, September was hotter than August.

Finally...some hope that the heat ridge will be broken, even if just temporarily. Below is the 48 hour shot from the Euro ensemble. The other screenshot is the 15 day(yeah...way out there and woefully undependable...but still...a glimmer. As you can see, no help from the North Atlantic, but the Pacific improves greatly. Even a little bit of split flow is apparent (if only it was winter). Now, I think this switch is going to happen. Timing is never perfect at this range. It is likely that the models are "jumping the gun" just a bit. The first cooler air masses may have a tough time driving south of the Ohio river. However, the GFS and its ensembles(18z at a glance has it...and sporadically prior to this run) are showing some hope. The cold shot into the northern Rockies during the middle of next week "should" signal the first push of cold air into the US that has the ability to push eastward. IMO, that is the beginning of a move to more seasonal temps at the worst. That said, one can see that even when the trough kicks eastward...the ridge is still there but squashed. @John1122, you were not kidding about the warm evening temps. Last night's low at TRI was 60. The normal is 49. We had lows in the mid 60s last week, and near 70 the week before. @*Flash*, how goes it? What do you see? @nrgjeff, where have you been, man? Hope all is well. Looking forward to your comments, even if just cold water. @Save the itchy algae!, great post by John and hope that helps!

That is a can of worms...lol. It depends on who is making those comments. MRX would refer to the southern valley as Chattanooga. However, since our forum stretches through TN, the northern Gulf states and southern KY(heck, we have some people in eastern Arkansas that have adopted this region - which is great!)...The eastern valley is the portion of the TN River in the eastern half of the state. The western valley is the portion that goes through west TN. Not sure what we call the valley areas in Alabama. Now sometimes, I refer to the eastern half of the eastern valley as...the eastern valley. I am on the western side of the eastern valley. So, maybe I should be more consistent. As for microclimates... I think the areas on the western slopes of the eastern valley have a tendency to get a rain shadow unless the system is throwing back moisture from a coastal plain low pressure. In the case of the coastal low, we get some good upslope. Like Chattonooga, I think TRI actually can get hit w a rain shadow from multiple directions. That is great for decreasing tornado risks, but kind of stinks for those who like snow. Now, we get more snow up here due to latitude and the snow squalls from the Great Lakes which is kind of cool. Some areas in the mountains such as Camp Creek deal with mountain wave events and deal w incredibly high wind events...sometimes those even damage their equipment. I lived off Paper Mill for many years during the 90s...the deeper in the valley one gets, the less snow. Farragut is almost right on the river. It is just a ridge or two over. Also, areas just to the north of Knoxville due slightly better w squalls from the Great Lakes. Those tend to fizzle out the further south that you go. I am sure our Knoxville folks and @John1122 can elaborate. John’s area is in a great place for snow. But yeah, great question. I am sure our folks in west TN appreciate the clarification. However, they have had some pretty decent recent winters in the western valley. That is my long-winded two cents.

And I will add that we have about three more weeks before we can really make a good guess at the winter pattern. @jaxjagman, what is the latest ENSO update consensus? If the pattern will flip during mid-October, I actually think that may be a good sign. If the ENSO will remain weak during the heart of winter, that is an even better sign. But really, like most winters everything is purely hypothetical at this point. I still like my overall prediction of DEC being slightly AN regarding temps, January being within a degree of normal either way, and February being slightly BN w the winter averaging out ever so slightly AN. I don't have a snow prediction yet, and those are just a crapshoot. However, with record warmth so far this year, the data set for attempting to correlate fall to winter will be very small(this year might be its own analog...I still like that line). If forced to predict snow, I would go with regional averages. We could go higher than normal, but I just don't see the indicators that would place us their yet. If the consensus outlook for ENSO is for it to be weak(at least for the heart of winter), I might be willing to go slightly above normal. The overall trend is BN snowfall during the past couple of decades w some recently good winters. So, it is tough for me to go AN for snow. I will have to see it to believe it.

Indeed, it is impressive how warm it has been. Mornings have been very warm for sure. Our daytime highs have even been pretty warm at TRI...very summer like. I think the successive amount of warmth is what is most impressive. September finished w the average temp warmer than August. Our daytime highs also finished a hair above for August as well. I am not sure how often that has happened...but I have to think that September finishing warmer than August it exceedingly rare. Thankfully, it has not been dry. I never want to experience again a fall like the one where Gatlinburg burned. As a side note, I know that leaves turn due to the amount of light...However, a few cold mornings will really get things going. OTH, warm weather can slow that change by a week or two. Right now, there is a bit of color to the trees but not much. The sycamores have yellowed some. A few yard maples have started to turn red. The dogwoods do have a little red. However, we are a pretty long way from peak IMHO. Unfortunately, this is the recipe for leaf season yard dragging on forever IMBY. We have several oaks near us which are notorious for holding their leaves. I hope that once things change that we get a really good wind storm and knock them off(after peak of course). One year I was still picking them up at Christmas. I had a skiff of snow and leaves in my mower bags at the same time.

Great discussion in this thread. My two cents right now...We are having the annual "NAO vs PNA/EPO" discussion which I enjoy BTW . I also enjoy trying to extrapolate fall temps into winter which rarely works. All of that is much more interesting than the mega-ridge that we are currently experiencing. That said, I think ENSO is the single best indicator for winter across the forum area. That is why @jaxjagman 's ENSO thread is important. I might add that(as expected) the ENSOs that promote great winter in one area of the forum are not optimum for others. Moderate or strong versions of either state normally don't work out in NE TN though a moderate Nina is not so bad for areas in the western third of the forum area. Nadas are not great IMBY. However, weak Ninas or weak Ninos are decent setups. Weak Ninas are dry but cold. Weak Ninos don't normally bring extreme, sustained cold...but they do bring plenty of moisture. It is a rare winter when we get both cold and snow for extended periods. Most winters have 2-3 weeks(if we are lucky) where conditions support snow, and those weeks are not necessarily back-to-back weeks. Sometimes we nickel and dime our way to a decent winter. I have this discussion w a friend of mine from time-to-time...but it has been a pretty long time since we have recorded 1' during a storm in the Tri-Cities. I am not sure if that is related to the ever diminishing chance for the -NAO or if it is that we are just in a down cycle for big storms. But it has been a while since a big storm has hammered the area(meaning 1' plus). Aside from ENSO, I try to bring in tools such as the QBO and MJO as sometimes a combination of things can help w snow chances. But like I said, we always have three things working against us in this forum area...latitude, proximity to warm GOM waters, and lower elevation. Those three things will fight even the best set-up and betting money is always on those. Watching for snow is often like watching a one-armed bandit...just waiting for the right 2-3 conditions to pop-up so we can hit the jackpot. Anyway, I do think that we finally have some things to talk about.

The Euro Weeklies want to push the trough east, and then have it draw back to the nation's mid-section. Now, I am not sure how this pattern would present itself during winter...and I suspect the "new pattern might last into early winter." However, if the pattern changes in mid-October then it does leave room for another pattern change as winter begins. I generally give a pattern about 4-6 weeks before it breaks. That does not always work, but just a rule of thumb that I use. I am not totally convinced that the pattern is warm for weeks 4-6...it may just be a back-and-forth pattern that gets washed out - meaning what happens after the trough heads east is unresolved w the model. At 4-6 weeks, I can easily understand that....long way off. The sharp drop in the NAO often signals a storm or switch to cold/stormy for us in NE TN. It doesn't even have to stay negative for long periods. Even during long periods of positive NAOs, the NAO often tipped the hand of an upcoming change. Using last spring as an example, a -NAO is normally a great indicator of cold in eastern valley. The bigger thing that the -NAO does is to slow down storms, and allows them to turn. I have said many times that in NE TN, we can get "throwback" snow from the Atlantic which is a micro-climate thing here...the -NAO is a good signal for that. But even without big coastals which have been far and few between, the -NAO dipping(or rising) is a good signal. As for the Pacific, it is nice to have it in our favor mainly because it happens more frequently. However, last winter the Pacific was in our favor (in an extreme way) and we got next to nothing. I do agree that the Pacific is a good card to have and more reliable in this age of the NAO staying neutral to positive during winter. I think there are ways to for it "not to snow" no matter how good the Pacific or Atlantic are. Our latitude, proximity to warm GOM waters, and elevation(speaking of the valleys) are three cards that constantly battle against low elevation snows.

This abnormally very warm weather has put a damper on what normally is a semi-interesting Fall thread. The Euro Weeklies this evening depict some seasonal to BN temps for weeks 3-4 with moderation afterwards and even a resurgence of the eastern ridge for November. All of that needs to be taken with a grain of salt as shoulder season(usual caveat here) makes those Weeklies exceptionally vulnerable to wild swings. Still, this run was quite similar to the last run. The massive eastern ridge will get knocked out of the way, and then attempt to rebound. It has been incredibly stubborn to move, and will take some work to finally get it out of the way if at all. That said, I would not be surprised to see it be a bit of a thorn for winter lovers during this winter. For whatever reason, there really wants to be a signifiant ridge over the SE. Right now, we can expect no help from the Atlantic in terms of an -NAO. I know many like to wait for that feature so we don't use-up our mojo too early. However, the -NAO tends to run in cycles, and it would be nice to see some semblance of AN heights over the next two months. Otherwise, I am wondering if the NAO might be a problem. The QBO is beginning to rise(though still deeply negative), but it has a tendency to flip quick which I suspect it will do. As the negative phase correlates somewhat to a -NAO, the flip positive(or even a rising QBO about to flip) might mean that we have to depend on the PNA and/or EPO for winter weather. Overall, very warm week coming up and warmth as well next week...then we see some typical back-and-forth fall weather which may be a bit of a shock after the record warmth. Cliff notes: Much above normal --> BN/normal --> slightly AN

Thankful for the cooler mornings when out running...those abnormally warm fall mornings were getting old quick. Still have a couple of weeks before true fall temps arrive. Looks like cold air will dump into the west over the next couple of weeks and then work eastward...TBD just how far south it gets.

Nice run of the Euro Weeklies and as they old Family Feud saying goes, "And the survey says....?" -Potential pattern change now advertised on tonight's run. The monster Eastern ridge is on the clock. By week 3, it "should" be seriously in trouble. -A series of cold fronts will slowly beat down the mega ridge. As noted just above in Rambler’s post, the first of which might not be too far off, but it is temporary as the ridge pushes back. Classic Fall back and forth fight over the Southeast potentially upcoming. -Eventually a +PNA will build and dump cooler temps into the East during weeks 3-5. Week 6 is a bit washed out as it could see a resurgence again of warm air...but that one could go either way. -Will update later as the different pieces of the run finish. @nrgjeff, definitely would welcome your perspective as it is alway rigorous.

Good stuff, John1122. Yeah, I don’t draw much correlation to warm Septembers and Octobers. Interesting too the the cold September map...maybe that is why I like Autumn to get here early? I definitely don’t like dry falls to precede winter. Honestly, I am just tired of four extra weeks of summer that some evil groundhog drummed up.

All I can say about the Tennessee offensive line...is hold my beer. LOL.

#2, #9, #1 by the power rankings in back-to-back-to-back games. Georgia, Auburn, and Bama. First two of those are on the road. Toughest three game stretch in the NCAA this year. Maybe the toughest three game stretch in recent history.

Looks like Tennessee fans are going to have plenty of time to "talk weather." Shew. Six turnovers. The outcome of that game is comparable to hitting 80 degrees during prime January snow climatology - for an entire week.