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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    That is crazy, man! Wow.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Here are some things to watch in the long range as the EPS finishes its run. 1. The GEPS has flipped to a favorable pattern from 0z. 2. The GFS/GEFS are out of sync. 3. The Euro operational "found" some extreme cold in southern Canada - take a look at the run-to-run temp change over Quebec. Tells me there is reasonable if significant uncertainty after d7. One good storm and that is a phase 8 MJO look. 4. Heights in prime blocking areas have moved on operationals/ensembels to either neutral or negative. Starting to see the beginnings of a HB block on some modeling. That area is notorious to forecast and can flip quickly. I noticed the change at 0z(could have been their prior), but there is a trend over Hudson Bay and the Davis Straits towards higher heights.
  3. Carvers Gap
    And the more that the Euro/EPS adjust that MJO, the more likely we see some variable solutions in the future. Seems fairly locked into a western trough right now...but if it is wrong about the MJO, it may be way off. I do think the Euro has superior physics, but it missed in November pretty badly...actually the past two Novembers.
  4. Carvers Gap
    High amplitude 8/1 are pretty good signals for sever cold. However, not sure we want the MJO to be a driver at all right now...so low amplitude is fine by me. FWIW(huge grain), the 12z GFS takes us out of the crap pattern. The CMC is fairly similar but doesn't go out far enough to know if it has a similar outcome. GFS has had an awful cold bias after d8...but that run is indeed a break from continuity at 500. Could be a blip. Could be a change.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I don't know that the QBO and EMON are in sync. We will see where the QBO is in a week. A negative and falling QBO at 30mb should favor more blocking over the Davis Straits and cold in the East coupled with low solar. Phase 5 is not favorable for blocking there. I don't think EMON and QBO are in sync at the end of that run...but that depends on whether the QBO has stalled weakly positive. Should know in a week. If the QBO is falling and almost negative or just negative...there should be more blocking in favorable areas. The EMON is being shown because it keeps correcting away from unfavorable phases or at least pushing them back. Pretty sure it sent the MJO into 7 and looped it back into 5. It is now taking a low amplitude look into 8 before crossing back into four, ie it is pushing the unfavorable switch back further and further. But yeah, don't want it stalled in 5! LOL. Game, set, match if so. I just don't think it is right with that stall. But right now, I wonder if the MJO ever goes to those phases anytime soon. I did screenshot it today to see if it verifies. Not to Tellico...but just to others reading: I have noticed a general consensus towards warm across multiple tech platforms. I tend to dig around to see if there are counters to that consensus. I don't think the MJO is being modeled correctly. That would be a fairly big flaw. The PDO is showing some signs of flipping at least temporarily. So, I don't think warm is a slam dunk though I freely admit is has a roughly 60% chance of verifying in my book. I think the EPS is possibly correct. Problem is, its own MJO is trending towards cooler phases at low amplitude. It it was the other way around...cool phases trending towards warm phases at low amplitude, I would not be very confident of the cooler model run. Thus, I think that warmer model runs need to be viewed with at least a pinch of skepticism until/if the MJO makes that turn.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Before we get too deep into this conversation, let's cover the definition of the PDO. First, begin to look in the NE Pacific. A warm or positive phase according to at the NCSU climate site is a pool of cool water surrounded by warm. A negative or cool phase is warm water surrounded by cold. According to the NCSU site, the positive phase correlates quite well to BN temps over the SE. Now, remember all of that cold parked over Alaska. It is cooling the SSTs in that area. I know @nrgjeff mentions the PDO some...so credit there a well. So in digging around for some teleconnections that would actually point to a less torchy forecast, here we go... Here is the a graphic from JPL regarding PDO phases: https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/pdo/ Here is a graphic CPC/NCEP ENSO update from December 23rd: https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/pdo/ This is a comparative graphic of the NE PAC in early December and yesterday. Here is the graphic from NOAA/NESDIS: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/ Discussion: Note the cooling signal in the CPC/NCEP graphic. Now, the raw data for that area is still very warm. See the NESDIS graphic below it. However, the trend is very much towards a positive PDO - reference the JPL graphic. We are not there yet. However, it seems like the PDO is making an attempt to switch from the big orange blob to a much cooler signal surrounded by warmth along the coastal areas of Canada and AK. Look how warm the SSTs were in the GOA to begin December. It was basically basin wide warmth with cold tucked up along the Pacific Canadian coast which is a fairly strong sig of a negative PDO. Now, look at yesteday's SSTs. Anamolous cool temps are beginning to show up in the central North Pac. If the PDO flips positive, we cool off. I submit that we probably need to monitor what is going on in the NE Pac as it may very well be a quiet but important passenger riding along with the driver which is the MJO. In other words, it is a driver as well. If it continues to switch, that is in our favor.
  7. Carvers Gap
    One last thing that I usually follow during winter...Many places in the northern Rockies got a pretty good thump of snow in early December. However, there are many places at normal or even below normal(regarding snowfall) in parts of WY and MT. Some areas have been really hammered such as the southeast corner of WY. But I follow several FB pages that show photos of those areas. One pic around Gardiner, MT, basically showed bare ground. Now, that area gets less snow as it is a very dry micro-climate of the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem, but I am not seeing deep snow in the areas outside of YNP. That is right out of the El Nino playbook. So, makes me think that the El Nino pattern is still fairly locked-in. The Mountain West can give a lot of clues as to what happens here. Like John, I look upstream quite a bit. (BTW, a cold Alaska used to be an old school sign for cold here...I agree). I have always looked into that area for changes. Last winter, the cold banked into that region and they got hammered by an active jet during late January, February, and March. It will be interesting to see if that happens during this cold snap. If it doesn't, it tells me that the current pattern has less Nina characteristics than last year. They get hammered during La Ninas. JB did point out that the SOI should begin to sharply rise as there is a tropical system headed for that area. Should fall after it passes. Beware of comparisons to La Nina when that happens. There are some comparisons that are accurate, especially when one looks at the cool water near SA. The tropical system may create a false Nina signal - there are Nina signals out there but not that as much. It is sort of like a -NAO forming because a big ridge was forced into that region but quickly scoots out - basically an artificial NAO. Same thing upcoming with the SOI in my opinion.
  8. Carvers Gap
    ...And one of the things that I look for is the model that mirrors the trajectory of the observed MJO without a sharp change in trajectory. This is why, contrary to the masses, that I am not going crazy about a warm-up after mid-month. It may happen...heck, it may likely happen. However, as long as that MJO forecast continues to correct and continues to push back(edit) the transition across the COD into warm phases...I am not going to play the "rest of winter" torch card quite yet. Here is a link to the CPC site. If you are new to the wx hobby(or even been in it for some time), good time to hone in on some new skills. Look at the site. Which models actually continue the current trajectory in a realistic manner? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
  9. Carvers Gap
    Remember when the MJO was supposed to go into 6, then go to 7, and loop back into 5? The CFS is looking like it will score a very unlikely coup here. I think it was the only model(joined by the JMA) which actually took the MJO through cold phases. If you look, the MJO is gaining amplitude and the model has yet to catch up. See that sharp dive left by the green forecast line that seems out of sync with the observed red line. Likely means it still has some trajectory to gain unless it finally nails the turn...been doing this for a few days, at some point it has to be right? The CFS and EMON are now quite similar. The CFS is a bit slower. The EMON goes into 5 and dies which would effectively end any chance for January cold - but is it right? The EMON does now have a cluster of paths that go through 8 and 1. The JMA gains massive amplitude in 7. So, oddly similar conversation as last year. We are now watching the MJO correct. No loop back to 5/6 from 7. Makes me wonder if the Euro MJO forecast is right at all at this point and that should call into question its LR forecast. It might be correct. It might not. But if the MJO does go into 8, 1, and 2 would not surprise me to see a trough in the East for an undetermined amount of time. The MJO has shown during the past two winters that even at low amplitude, it affects downstream wx in signifiant ways. Something to keep an eye on, but that is a very different look that we started with.
  10. Carvers Gap
    You can set your watch by it...another warm overnight 0z suite. The EPS has almost lost its cold shot between d10-15. Going to have to sweat this one out it appears - quite literally. LOL.
  11. Carvers Gap
    So what happened during November is the GFS operational caught the first cold front and then went full bore. (Remember how modeling looked like it was going to be record warmth unending during September and early October?)The Euro was next to see it. The EPS never caught up. I am definitely intrigued by the cold front depicted on the d10-15 EPS. It showed up a few runs ago. Just a hunch, but I think the MJO makes into its cold phases. If so, models have not caught up. The Weeklies from today finally show the cold font in 11-12 days. They were blind to it even a couple of weeks ago. After that, a four week warm up is depicted...and the pattern flips during the second week of February to cold. Speaking of the d8-15 time frame IMHO, the EPS has a wicked warm bias and an inability to see pattern flips. The GEFS conversely has a wicked cold bias and jumps the gun on pattern changes. With the EPS showing cold in the LR...have to keep an eye on that both in intensity and duration. Most signals really point towards an ongoing warm pattern after the week two cold snap. That said, I am much less confident about a prolonged warm-up(during weeks 3-4) than I was about the current one we are experiencing. So whyI am torn, I think it is within the realm of possibility that the pattern flips in 11-12 days and never looks back. It could be a warning shot for a new pattern or a relaxation. I can definitely see this being a route in favor of warm and leaving us with a 2-3 week window in February(or not at all). The things that have my radar up regarding a pattern change are the tanked SOI, we are due for a pattern switch, climatology which does not support a SE ridge, and an MJO that keeps pushing into colder phases. Pushing back changes often equates to model catching up. One model, the EPS or the GEFS, is about to bust wildly in the d10-15 time frame. How that turns out will tell us if one model cannot overcome its bias. I posted the comparison maps above. We will see how they verify in a few weeks. That said, I remember those Nino winters of the 90s...and this is exactly why I am not a fan.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Speaking of the LR and not the current phase 6. Sure looks like the ECMWF is trending further and further into some good phases. Either way, it is pushing back the switch to warm phases. I think it began as a loop from barely into phase 7 back into 5...now it has pushed into 8 and looped back across the COD into four(almost three). Heck, it almost goes low amplitude into 1. So, the trend is to delay the MJO from crossing the COD into the warm phases. If modeling is struggling to catch-up to the MJO, then it is likely "off" in the LR. I suspect it is, but we will see. I would not be surprised to see the MJO not even get into those phases with current trends - but I am out on a limb with that statement.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Models appear to be playing catch-up as MJO phase 8 now on the table. The ECMWF looks like it is going to make a run at 1 and 2 if the trend continues.
  14. Carvers Gap
    There was a double dip with the QBO one cycle ago which is pretty rare. Other than that, one can pretty much set their watch by it relative to nature's terms. Will be interesting to see the new value which posts on January 1. If we have paused, that is trouble for the rest of winter. I suspect it drops to near neutral or below based on the NASA daily graphics. Not sure if those(climate data chart) values are a monthly average or just the value on the last day of the month. Regarding next winter, we want a long negative cycle OR for this positive cycle to last a few more months(would be bad for this winter...but better next). Now the QBO is also heavily influenced by solar mins/maxes. It does not behave the same during a min as it does a max. For example, I think a westerly(positive) QBO during a solar max is actually cold in the east. So, the raw value can be misleading without solar influence considered.
  15. Carvers Gap
    @John1122 @tnweathernut Seems like we are missing some big storms in there, particularly the JC snow during the lat 90s. I do realize that these are for the airport stations. But have to think the big JC storm needs a mention. Does this look correct to you all? Also, seems like the Feb '96 storm is missing? https://www.weather.gov/mrx/snow
  16. Carvers Gap
    QBO cycles run in 14 month increments according to the UKMET office. If it flips in January 2020, that means that next winter will likely feature a rising QBO which is not great. The QBO "should" flip positive during late winter of 2021 or early spring of that year. Tough to know when it will bottom out. Really need a QBO that is negative and still falling for it to usher in super cold. If it flips in January 2020 with a significant drop, that likely means we see some blocking in late winter and most of spring this season. The QBO might help us early next winter, but then really start working against us later in the season. The AO figure below tells what we need to know. Wow...forecast to be almost off the charts positive. Trying to remember the last time I have seen a +4 or +5. If you think about when we have seen extremes during winter, those patterns tend to break down quickly and unexpectedly. I suspect this pattern will do the same. Waiting for the MJO data to be released. The RMM1 stuff is out...waiting for individual model runs to look for trends. Seems to me like the MJO is going to be driving the bus for the next few weeks. Looks like it has now ducked into phase 6. No surprise given the warmth. TRI has been seen temp anomalies at +15, +14, and +12 during the past three days. The December temp anomaly is up to +3.5 and is going to be really moving up during the next week. Going to be interesting to see if the New Year's cold snap even occurs(meaning BN temps). The 0z Euro completely dumped it(another warm 0z run). The CMC barely has it. The GFS is coolest, but moderating from early runs. Looks like another seasonal front may approach during the second week of January. The 6z GEFS is way, way out there on a limb. The EPS does now have a cold front around the 11-12 day mark which is relatively new...but nothing like the 6z GEFS. Going to be a good test. From Monday January 6-11...GEFS is very cold. I am going to post a pic of that range(0z EPS vs 6z GEFS from 12.26.19). Be interesting to see which bias is worse...the EPS/warm or the GEFS/cold. Rooting for the GEFS, but with muted to skeptical optimism. The daily 500 maps on the EPS look much warmer BTW...sneaky cool underneath.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Combine that with that crazy drop int the SOI...might be interesting.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Man, I think that is an SSW event during the second week of January. 90N is the North Pole. At 10mb, that is a lot of heat up there. After reading the tweet, I think Ventrice is talking about the variability of the SPV with a weakening a few weeks ago, the current strengthening, and then a weakening. Good find.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Wiggum has a funny post in the MA about the wild solutions being spit out between the 3-6th. I mean there has been some crazy stuff on modeling during that time frame. Very strong, historic type stuff. If that happens...that might be the end of this pattern. Usually a big storm will end one pattern and begin another. My gut tells me that after the first few days of January we are going to move from this warm pattern to a time frame of great uncertainty...and I could be wrong and everyone opens up their pools in late January! Just a hunch that we are about to hit a wild pattern over North America. Again, nothing scientific to support that so take with a huge grain of salt. That -27 SOI does have my radar up though. So, maybe a little bit of science.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Have you ever just watched a football game where your team turned it over all game long, had a ton of penalties, shot itself in the foot, and then somehow found a way to victory. I mean how much stuff can actually be against us?! LOL. PV is tightening up. MJO looks bad. Low solar but just enough to screw things up....and on and on. Sometimes when I see things just get that bad....I am like, it can't stay this way forever(unless you are a TN fan, and then it lasts for a decade!). But seriously, nature likes balance. At some point this pendulum of bad winters is gonna swing back the other way. But the SOI is sitting at -27! Sure sign that something fairly significant is on its way in NA. If the QBO is still negative tomorrow, also a good sign. IMHO, those two carry a ton of weight. We will keep our fingers crossed. We are finally due a cold overnight run, right!
  21. Carvers Gap
    Jax, that would imply an SSW event in early January, right? And a significant one at that.
  22. Carvers Gap
    One would think so...I would not be surprised to see the GEFS cave to the EPS in terms of a Southeast Ridge. OTH, the GEFS caught the last transition to cold. Basically, most of the day the GEFS is evolving to all of North America w BN heights. It is like one gigantic block w the easter Pacific ridge on one wide and a ridge over Europe being the other. Definitely an orthodox look. That used to happen in the 1970s. That said, it is entirely possible that the ensemble can't figure out if it wants a trough in the East or West. As evidence, just look at the EPS member distribution. So, what may look like a huge, full latitude tough may actually be just model spread. If it is model spread, bet on the Southeast Ridge. LOL...but sometimes I wonder. If all of the teleconnections just go to crap...all of eastern NA should torch...but really no ensemble depicts that look. As John noted, something is out of whack - likely the handling of the MJO. It would be very TN Valley-ish to have all teleconnections go to crap...and then have a bout of memorable winter. Very little would surprise me right now. You know in 2014, December was really warm and most of us(probably me included) had written off that winter. Then, modeling flipped in a matter of a few runs. The EPS never caught up...like the rest of the winter it didn't catch up. I also wouldn't be surprised for us to stay warm and never flip back. If that PV tightens up, going to be heck to pay come later winter and spring. So, I think the best we can actually hope for given everything we know is this...The PV over Alaska pinwheels and sends cold shots southeast. That will likely mean warm to very warm interludes. But we only need seasonal at this time of the year. IMHO, it is a major ice storm setup. An example would be a storm that cuts through the TN Valley to the Lakes. It drives bitterly cold air into the Valley with a storm on its heals. Get some WAA and trap the cold in the valleys...and there you go. Right now, the STJ is lit. Not going to need a lot of cold air to have some ice, slush, and light accums. So, to answer your question, I think we are just now getting to where we can see something different on LR modeling. One last thing to consider, do you all remember Jeff talking about how teleconnection signals were sometimes getting opposite results due to the warm Pacific? I sort of thought he was kidding...but then realized maybe he wasn't. Correct me if I am wrong, Jeff. I think during 14-15' most of the teleconnections were not favorable, maybe a very positive AO? So, we might be getting ready to test that theory. I don't want to provide false hope or wish casting, but the big trough is their on pretty much all global ensembles. Going to be interesting to see the MJO in the AM. If the crossing of the COD into warm phases gets delayed for several more days...makes me wonder if something is up. Anyway, LOOOONG answer to your question. What we really want to see is a crack in the EPS during the next few days. If it "missed the turn" to a new pattern, it should begin slowly correcting OR it may double down.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I have gone over the 12z EPS and GEPS and 18z GEFS. Just chilling on Christmas Day evening. If there is anything I can gather...the coldest air on the planet (speaking of anomalies only) is going to be in North America. All modeling wants to keep this centered in the West....and the GEFS and EPS allow that cold air to spread east and se in pieces from Alaska. The 18z GEFS allows much of North America to be overtaken by BN temps. Looks like bias in play, but the EPS does something similar to a lesser degree. Not sure how they are pulling that off given multiple indices showing otherwise. Something I am just kicking around....if we manage to get that much cold air into North America, maybe it just overrides the system. Probably not...but modeling is actually showing this happen. My guess would be a SER in place most of the time. Might even be cold coming in chasing storms. But it would be very cold air behind those storms. Might be that each storm presses the boundary southward.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Some good discussion in the MA thread about the +AO and -PNA and some of the cooler looks being thrown out there by the model in spite of poor high latitude blocking signals(PSU and BChill discussing that). Not a lot of analogs to support cold with those indices being the reverse of good. So, likely those indices are wrong...or there is going to be a significant SE ridge...or we have the rare eastern winter where we get cold with poor teleconnections in place. I would recommend reading that discussion. It is pretty interesting. I would bet on the SER, but as much as the weather went totally out of whack last year...would not surprise me to see another wonky year where things don't fit. I still halfway think that trough corrects east in the LR...I just don't have much support for that thinking right now. Again, the MJO delayed its move into the warm phases this AM and took a peak at phase 8. Need to keep an eye on that. Add in the QBO and SOI(especially the deeply negative SOI), and there are some ingredients in there for model volatility coming up. Not seeing it yet, but the SOI implies something afoot.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Still, the EPS cool trend from 0z to 12z in notable yet again. Rarely does the EPS cool at 0z. I think this current warm-up has been modeled fairly well. The EPS LR was generally the warmest of the global ensembles for the forum area this December. GEFS was cold in the LR. The EPS will easily verify. I suspect the EPS is probably correct for the next couple of weeks...Hopefully, we see some cracks in the western trough armor by then. This is definitely a time of year that can leave one looking pretty silly. While I was fairly all-in on this upcoming warm-up, I am treading lightly once we get to the second week of January. I am reading some more posts about the PV tightening up...gotta hope that doesn't happen. If so, sustained January cold is likely not happening. The EPS at least implies that we see one and maybe two decent cold fronts. With an active storm pattern, anything can happen. Deep into a pattern cycle, I trust the EPS less and less, because it will miss the change to a new pattern quite often and the GFS operational will often catch it first - especially if the flip is to cold. So the question now is not whether it will be warm...it is going to be. The question now is the duration. If that PV tightens up...LONG wait. But if it sits up there is just sends a piece SE every 7-10 days...that is workable. I would not say there is much uncertainty right now in terms of temps for the next couple of weeks. After that...maybe that is where the transition sits.
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