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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Basically, it is a pattern where cold drops into the front range and comes eastward in pulses. Now, the Weeklies are sorely guilty of continuing the derived run in perpetuity, so there is that. However, maybe we are starting to see some cracks in the current pattern. Now, if we go with the 6 week pattern cycle rule...Warmth began here around Dec 8th. Add 42 days to that and you get January 19th. The current return to seasonal(important note...not BN but seasonal and also along the battle zone for temps) occurs on that model around Jan22-23.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I said I would refrain from talking about the Weeklies in depth unless they changed... @Holston_River_Rambler , are you able to build both an 850 and 500 loop of that run? Pretty big changes early in week 4. Looked like the GFS but about a week later. SER continues to fight, but the death ridge is absent after week 3.
  3. Carvers Gap
    GFS is colder. The though has crossed my mind that if the ridge in the Pacific continues to be crazy strong...it might just dump a significant amount of cold air into NA and that would trump everything else. Euro is a hair eastward with the trough...
  4. Carvers Gap
    You catching the Euro run here at 12z? Interesting to 174 for sure.
  5. Carvers Gap
    FWIW, the 12z Euro and GFS look very similar at 168 with the Euro Pac ridge pushing towards the coast a smidge more than 0z.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The energy that "could" force part of the trough east temporarily is inside of(edit) 240.
  7. Carvers Gap
    14-15 had some decent snows in NE TN in February. Most snow I can remember in February in my lifetime in Kingsport.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I wil also add...cold can and does overwhelm MJO patterns. The volume and severity of the cold on some modeling could do that. Not saying that happens...but that is realistic. The GFS is also depicting the variability that I would expect from modeling...not those runs where the entire northern hemispheric circulation complex is arrested and stops. So, one would expect cold fronts coming east IF the cold can get east of the Rockies. There is really no physical feature to hold it in place other than high pressure that seems to be willing to move at times.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS(we all know the rules with this model) showed a fourth run straight of a fairly significant cold front right in the middle of the Jan 10-20th warm-up. The 12z GEFS also shows a fairly strong trend to reduce ridging late in the time frame. I am only looking at trends at this point...but that is all we have. I said last night that if I had a certain cold shot(that had been shown for weeks) heading for MBY, and I saw a warm run on the 18z GFS flip warm...I would be a bit nervous. Last night was of course the opposite of that...but the happy hour run can sometimes catch trends. Who knows? Guess we are about to find out.
  10. Carvers Gap
    And the 0z GEFS has broken a bit from continuity post 300. Still not there yet, but the trough out West has been really disrupted.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Despite the 500 pattern, cold has overwhelmed the pattern at this point out to 354. The cold front at 18z was a 10+/10. This one was a 9.5/10.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Did the 0z GFS just hold serve past 300 hours?!
  13. Carvers Gap
    And yet, here comes the front with cold air pushing under the 500 ridge yet again. I still think it hangs up, but at 312 her she comes into west TN. Yes, that is PBP at 300...that is how bad it is (for future readers referencing this post)!
  14. Carvers Gap
    The energy has to go west or east of the Rockies...can't ride the spine. The front on this run will hold up in the Plains vs coming east. We need that piece of energy to come across the continental divide and not dive west and dig that trough. Both are realistic possibilities.
  15. Carvers Gap
    At 240, you can see the energy at 500 split over Seattle as if it couldn't decide to go west or east. As is, looks like it will deepen the western trough vs allowing it to slide eastward with cold air. Model is literally splitting hairs with that piece of energy. Something to keep an eye on.
  16. Carvers Gap
    That little piece of energy at 240 is where the run hangs on an edge. Probably won't stay that way. The 18z and 0z were nearly identical until that piece of energy headed west of the Rockies instead of east.
  17. Carvers Gap
    You can see on the 0z GFS about the energy having to go west or east of the Rockies. The energy at 0z was over the Seattle and tried to dodge east like 18z and split. It regrouped to the West. Sent some energy west of the Coastals.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Want a really good example of an EPS bust, look at last November(2018). I was all-in on warm and made it clear. John challenged the model, and he was right. I have rarely seen the EPS so locked into a solution and see it bust. November went cold. It basically did the same thing this fall...but those were shoulder seasons and we are on different ground now as it is deep into winter. But sometimes modeling can seem locked and miss. So, never hurts to question modeling even if it is likely to be correct. The GFS shows one way to cold compared to an abundance of paths going warm. But again, if it was cold forecast and the 18z hiccuped...I would be watching the next few runs.
  19. Carvers Gap
    FTR, the 18z run on modeling has thrown a wrench in many a forecast cold spell IMBY. Probably doesn't continue, but who knows. Just something fun to watch...
  20. Carvers Gap
    Is it realistic in the face of evidence against it? Probably not because it is an outlier. Is it a realistic path to exiting the upcoming warm pattern? Sure. It is not like we are asking for it to get cold in July - that is an unrealistic outlier. The 18z GFS run was a realistic outlier with plenty of basis in reality. I would be the first to admit that the run was wonky - it was not. As stated above, get super cold in the front range and get a cutter. Not a super difficult switch. Cold has overwhelmed MJO patterns in the past. It will again. With cold in the front range there is no physical feature to lock it into place there - just atmospheric pressure. But I am not hanging my hat on one 18z run of the GFS...like never. However, I said yesterday to assume I am "warm" in my thinking unless otherwise states. I am just looking for ways out of this or just some oasis where we can get a cold shot or two. I have seen locked-in cold patterns and locked-in warm patterns evaporate on modeling...patterns which had excellent synoptic support. Sometimes the weather just doesn't cooperate. Check out Bob Chill's comments in the MA forum regarding that run. If we had been looking at a potential cold pattern for several weeks on modeling, and the 18z suddenly showed some warmth. We probably wouldn't take it seriously unless another run backed it up...but I can guarantee all of us would be checking that next run just in case. Same deal here.
  21. Carvers Gap
    And again...quick note. If that much cold is in the front range and you see something slide across at 500, be sure to look at surface temps under it.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Also, if the eastern ridge were to get tall, the base of that ridge will be attacked by the STJ. Same thing would happen if it was out West. The thing I suspect is that ensembles are washing out some big storms into the center of the country. Those storms can fight a ridge in the East. In September, there was no cold to fight that ridge. Not so now. Anyway, going to enjoy my d12-15 cold until the next run and HOPE (which is not a forecast) for a trend to variability. We are long past due for a crap pattern to actually not verify.
  23. Carvers Gap
    So, the 18z GEFS does offer weak support for the operational. The cold presses under the 500 ridge to the west. With a run with that much cold in Montana...need to look under the 500 pattern to see if it is pressing. Not in any way saying I believe the GFS, just glad to see something that shows what "could" happen and what used to happen when cold built in MT. Get the cold into the front range and get a blizzard to the Lakes...and who knows. There is a crap ton of cold forecast to be in Canada.
  24. Carvers Gap
    My gripe for days is that this is an active pattern with an active STJ. One good storm that cuts into that ridge could change-up the pattern. I just don't think the northern hemispheric pattern is going to come to a stall for ten days. Too much energy. I have been frustrated that modeling doesn't show that active pattern with lots of variability.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that is the mother load....right in the middle of the warm-up. I would laugh for days if that actually happened. Unlikely as that is the GFS at range, but if the cold goes into the front range and then we get a cutter...look out. The EPS control wasn't far from that look at 12z.
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