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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Awesome. Wyoming is one of my favorite places. The winds there can blow at hurricane force for days on end on the Plains out there. I follow some pages on FB(Wyoming through the Lens) which shows some crazy snow drifts that the can get from just 4" of snow. The event last week that was blowing over trucks was incredible. Wasn't really a mountain wave event, but was impressive. I have been caught in thunderstorms out there that push through. Nothing quite like the winds in that are of the world. Easily is my favorite weather state. I would imagine The Winds, Salt, Bighorns, and any range in SE WY(like the Medicine Bow) have some crazy spots. Another cool deal are these little indentations called the Peter Sinks in Utah where they have some of the coldest temps in the lower 48. These indentations get crazy cold. Some researches thing these little cold indentations are found in Antartica as well and likely could break all-time record lows. What is crazy is that you can walk into these little spots within a matter of a few steps. Another place that gets fierce winds off the mountains is Browning, MT, on the reservation there. Not really a mountain wave deal, but still impressive. Kind of cool that we have this here in Tennessee though.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Math/Met, what is the timing for this event on Saturday - more late in the day?
  3. Carvers Gap
    How many hours above freezing are we once we get to about to 252 give our take 6 hours to account for your location?...not seeing many at TRI. That was an incredibly cold run.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Yep, this run is pretty much going to unload the mother load of cold into the central and eastern United States.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Massive 1050 high at 252 slides in right behind that system. I like seeing repetitive cold shots and an active STJ...understatement of the new decade, right? Great example of how modeling really likes significant cold to come into play after January 16/17. Good storm signal.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Regarding the 12z GFS. We now have one winter threat in the d8 range and closing. The timing of these (potential) cold air masses surging southeastward is going to obviously be critical. Memphis and much of the western forum area(eastern Arkansas, western KY, northern MS, and sw Missouri) look to be sitting in a good spot for late next week when the first round of cold arrives. It really looks like we are going to see cold come southeast and have difficulty moving as the next system from the STJ "attacks" the departing high. The GFS appears to have reverted to its 18z progression at 500. Nevertheless, the surface looks quite similar if not a bit warmer than 6z. How far that wintry precip spreads eastward is going to depend on where high pressure is, how much cold we get, and how quickly it retreats. Classic set-up for the western forum areas if it verifies.
  7. Carvers Gap
    12z GEPS is also a nice run as well.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Thanks, Holston. Nice ridge out West. Cold coming straight off the pole. I would not be surprised if this evolves similarly to November where we get the Pacific to cooperate and then the NAO kicks in for a a week or two to close that pattern. It has been hinted at...but it wouldn't take much for AN heights to sneak into Greenland in that pattern. Would not surprise me to see the base of that trough retrograde west a bit. That Scandinavian Ridge kind of tipped its hand to blocking being re-establlished or relocated.
  9. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, we couldn’t talk you into a 12z EPS 500 anomaly loop could we? If you are busy, not worries! Probably won’t see a better progressional this winter...so might as well enjoy.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Really nice run of the 12z EPS incoming.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Another flashback...the PV appears to be split late in the run and working its way up. The last two PV splits have been from the strat down. You can just about take it to the bank that when we get these monster ridges in winter alone the EC...it is going to disrupt the PV(even if modeling doesn't show it at first). So, the reason that the higher latitudes are all over the place on different runs is probably due to some "goings on" with the PV being disrupted.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, for sure. I think it is pay me now or pay me later. If a piece of that trough kicks East, we get the first true cold front of January. If it holds back, the entire thing is going to come out. The 12z GFS certainly had plenty of blocking and troughs in the correct places. The SER really wants to hang on in modeling. That is something we will have to watch. I strongly suspect it gets beaten down over time. Looks like some form of an EPO ridge on most modeling with varying "opinions on the rest NA in regards to blocking. Indeed, the 12z GFS basically flipped all of that from 6z but with mid-latitudess staying similar. All of this bouncing around lends itself to a substantial stake-up just after mid-month. The one thing that many models are showing is a stalled frontal boundary over the Upper South and/or Ohio Valley. Have to watch those with big highs in place. That would likely be my second favorite setup for winter storms. Plenty to look at...and some uncertainty as well. But hey, when is the weather ever a certainty? I hold cautious optimism that winter is going to return. If it weren't for last year's head fake, I would be pretty excited. For now, I tread lightly!
  13. Carvers Gap
    MJO continues to improve with it becoming more apparent that there will no be a quick loop back into the warm phases. Options include going into the COD or heading into phases 7/8. Both are not bad.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Of note the 0z EPS pulls BN heights northward and puts a ridge in the West with an unsettled pattern over the East. The 6z GEFS finally moved towards the EPS solutions. Overall, still a nice cold signal from Jan 17-21. After that, still a shakeup expected. Does the cold lift out and get replaced with a zonal look or does the cold stay in NA and reload the eastern trough? Does the PV split as hinted at by American modeling? Before anyone scoffs at the American model at range...the GFS for whatever reason has a pretty good ability to depict TPV splits.
  15. Carvers Gap
    You know a side-by-side NA view of the craptastic pattern in a few days and that last frame of the 18z GFS would be cool. Example A: Garbage Example B: Money
  16. Carvers Gap
    18z is a textbook transition. Right speed but slower than previous runs. But the result of energy being held back is that the ensuing eastern trough digs deeper. The model solutions where pieces of the trough are spit out a little at a time results in a mess. Looks to me like the ridge is going to roll forward in the Pacific. If so, we want enough energy held back to dig the ensuing trough. Just another wild run. When 18z comes around, pretty much pop the popcorn.
  17. Carvers Gap
    ...And these changes are not that far off. First cold shot on the 18z GFS is heading down the Plains at 192.(next Wednesday)
  18. Carvers Gap
    Have seen some quality chatter on various forums(mainly MA) regarding conflicting signals of the PV tightening on the EPS and splitting on the GFS. We don't want the PV to tighten up per the EPS any more than it is. We want it displaced per the GFS preferably into eastern NA. Some of that accounts for variations being seen. I highly doubt that we are done with the wild wx model solutions. Probably just the beginning. Still, I think a very big shake-up is coming. I welcome that because the big ridge in the East was not going to get it done. Kind of like you get a bad hand in poker. Fold and take your losses. Then, get a new hand dealt and hope it is better. Pretty much right where we are. The upcoming hand is about as bad as it gets. Nothing wrong with getting a new hand. But....this is what makes this fun. We get to try to work a new pattern instead of the mega-torch that we will see.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS like the 12z GFS(operational) is wanting to belly the ridge into the nation's mid-section. And like the GFS, one has to look at surface temps in order to get the entire story. If the ridging is week...it is cold to very cold underneath. When the EPS has mean surface 2m temps cold in the d10-15 those have been verifying quite cold. I generally have to use 850 temps to balance the 2m temp bias to warm. Looks like the trend is to continue to allow for an Aleutian' trough and slightly more ridging into the nation's mid-section which eventually backs into a weak trough. What today's run tells me is that this is not settled - this meaning the shake-up. If I was a betting man, I would bet on a stout western ridge and an Aleutian's low. And yes, very strong signal for multiple over-running events at various latitudes in the lower 48. Until this gets worked out, tough to know where. The 12z Euro now has the cold shot around Jan16/17. Oddly, maybe very oddly, the EPS as en ensemble and GFS as an operational is working as my preference. They have been leading the way with their respective model groups. The odd washed out crazy look on the 12z GFS...pretty much what the EPS looked like as well. Modeling is a mess which is a very good sign of a significant hemispheric circulation pattern change.
  20. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS still holding strong with(what so far) an outlier solution of an eastern ridge. The 12z GFS(different core and newer) is about night and day different. So something to keep an eye on. Even on the GEFS looks like the cold air is pressing, but the SER has not budge on that model. More updates to come regarding ensembles and the Euro run. Feel free to chime in...
  21. Carvers Gap
    The big changes at 500 are now sitting just outside of the 10 day window, but the transition is now inside of ten days at the surface. Fingers crossed that it hits and holds.
  22. Carvers Gap
    It is almost like the surface map changes ahead of the 500 map. Looks like Jan16/17 is when that shot of cold air arrives and that would make it the beginning of a potential winter weather window. As weathertree notes, ton of cold air up there. And it looks like it wants to head southeast.
  23. Carvers Gap
    And again, the 500 maps on the CMC don't actually match the surface maps late in the run. Once that cold air surges into the SE it takes its time to move. Looks to me like a fairly strong ice storm signal with low level cold in place and almost gets pinned there by warmer air above it.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Yes, there is. I came buy to post about how I actually like the wonky looking 12z GFS. Big takeaway...EPO ridge. Rest of the run is all over the place as it leaves a piece of energy in the SW. The GFS has been advertising for several days some fairly cold air. The Euro is not on board as much with that...but the EPS is actually better long range. Looks to me like a pattern that reloads cold in the front range in MT and just keeps sending it SE. With the active storm system that we have, any significantly cold and sizable air mass would likely intersect with the active STJ. Now, I have no idea how long that will hold in place...but it is certainly better than the big ridge. Reminds me a lot of November when I look at it. Very warm pattern that takes about 1-2 weeks to step down into a very cold pattern. Does it verify? Million dollar question.
  25. Carvers Gap
    New EMON MJO is out today. The Euro has been kicking butt and taking names regarding the MJO. It is not perfect but IMHO its performance has pretty much exceeded any other model. Looks like COD after this two week trip into the warm phases. That fits nicely with the EPO ridge becoming a main driver sometime after mid-month. JB did mention that convection has fired in the western IO which corresponds to phases 1 and 2. We have been there before with that. He mentioned that modeled the null phase may be the model splitting the difference between 5/6 and 1/2. Shakup still apparent on modeling. Looks like the target date for the first front will be around January 16/17. That front will likely be muted and be a seasonal front, but there is a chance it is a truly strong cold front. Quick warm-up after that...and then the eastern ridge is modeled to get beat-up pretty good if not completely removed. 12z EPS looked good last night. GEFS is SLOWLY coming around...its MJO is an outlier right now and is likely causing that model to be an outlier. Meanwhile, the operational GFS bounces between the trough coming east to just a jumble of AN and BN heights scattered randomly throughout the lower 48. Again, going to be lots of model variations if the shakeup is real. If the EPS holds through tomorrow afternoon, my confidence will really grow.
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