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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS is a perfect example of why one should never, ever share a foxhole with that model. LOL.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I think what we are going to see is a repetitive pattern of cold being dominant when present, pushing the SER down, only to have the SER bounce right back once the cold shot is through. I suspect the changing wavelengths of this upcoming spring are likely about to shake-up the base pattern. So, I think this is a battle of cold vs the SER. In the forum area, we will be right on the battle line. If you want a shot at big snow, that is the place to be. If you want a shot at sustained winter weather for weeks on end, probably not going to happen as that is not really the Nino calling card. Keep the big highs coming along with an active STJ, and we have a shot and maybe more than once. I think modeling has shown the options that we have fairly clearly. One option is that WAA pushes toward the Ohio Valley and we get rain. I suspect that will be the base pattern. However, I think a second storm track will be big highs pressing cold southward(thus squashing the SER) and giving the forum area chances at snow. Looks like one window will be from Jan 20-25(maybe earlier if the GFS is correct...good luck there) and maybe another window in early February(edit). Many good and even great winters have had two storm windows that look a lot like that. I think we will battle the SER the rest of winter. However, I think cold pressing southeast due to changing wavelengths, climatology, and a stout EPO ridge will fight the SER. I do think one danger of such a big -EPO is the trough tucking under it...the EPS illustrates that risk nicely. Overall, I still think we are about to see a fairly strong shakeup beginning around Jan16/17. Duration TBD. That said, what the ensembles depict(edit) is about 1,000x better than the pattern we have been in for the past month and a half. Let's see if we can get the Euro OP to flip. It is a tough nut to crack even under the best of circumstances.
  3. Carvers Gap
    And when I say odd man out....all three global ensembles have flipped, including its own ensemble. All other global operationals have flipped. If it wins against all of that...it has proven its superiority beyond a shadow of a doubt and has re-earned its title as king. But until it flips, I would not put my chips in the cold basket just yet. I have seen the Euro OP take on all comers and win multiple times. But it is really a far outlier right now.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The 0z Euro op does not agree with the EPS but is indeed not pretty. Again, this winter if things go badly on a model run, especially the Euro, it will be the 0z run. The Wednesday(edit) night it almost put the ridge in the West only to move to a great solution at 12z. Same deal the night before. The 0z Euro op is now odd man out. It can and does score coups from when it is on its own though. So, the saga continues.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Was kicking around the likelihood of STJ getting shut down today with someone. Never say never but...I think the STJ is going to really attack the base of any trough. This is why people like weak Nino years. Plenty of disturbances working along whatever boundary sets up. I would probably be more worried about WAA problems. My guess is the boundary sets up over the Upper South.
  6. Carvers Gap
    This was shared in the MA forum. Very good look at the MJO progression from today's modeling.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The GEFS has been slowly moving to the EPS...that is pretty much a total cave right there at 18z. Looks like right now that we have global ensembles and the GFS operational on board. The Euro operational should come on board by tomorrow afternoon I would think. Big moves. It is my hope that our new(er) folks get to see a legit pattern flip during a Nino winter. They are a sight to behold when they actually occur.
  8. Carvers Gap
    18z GEFS is basically on board by the end of its run. Trough still isn't deep enough I don't think...but the EPO ridge is massive.
  9. Carvers Gap
    And the Weeklies derived from a "warm" run compared to this afternoon. If they had been derived from this afternoon, would have likely been frigid. The morning run allowed the ridge to push into the mid-section unlike this afternoon's run. The 18z GFS was straight up frigid! John, really pulling for the cold November correlation to win the rest of winter. Looks like it has a fighting chance!
  10. Carvers Gap
    Awesome. Wyoming is one of my favorite places. The winds there can blow at hurricane force for days on end on the Plains out there. I follow some pages on FB(Wyoming through the Lens) which shows some crazy snow drifts that the can get from just 4" of snow. The event last week that was blowing over trucks was incredible. Wasn't really a mountain wave event, but was impressive. I have been caught in thunderstorms out there that push through. Nothing quite like the winds in that are of the world. Easily is my favorite weather state. I would imagine The Winds, Salt, Bighorns, and any range in SE WY(like the Medicine Bow) have some crazy spots. Another cool deal are these little indentations called the Peter Sinks in Utah where they have some of the coldest temps in the lower 48. These indentations get crazy cold. Some researches thing these little cold indentations are found in Antartica as well and likely could break all-time record lows. What is crazy is that you can walk into these little spots within a matter of a few steps. Another place that gets fierce winds off the mountains is Browning, MT, on the reservation there. Not really a mountain wave deal, but still impressive. Kind of cool that we have this here in Tennessee though.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Math/Met, what is the timing for this event on Saturday - more late in the day?
  12. Carvers Gap
    How many hours above freezing are we once we get to about to 252 give our take 6 hours to account for your location?...not seeing many at TRI. That was an incredibly cold run.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Yep, this run is pretty much going to unload the mother load of cold into the central and eastern United States.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Massive 1050 high at 252 slides in right behind that system. I like seeing repetitive cold shots and an active STJ...understatement of the new decade, right? Great example of how modeling really likes significant cold to come into play after January 16/17. Good storm signal.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Regarding the 12z GFS. We now have one winter threat in the d8 range and closing. The timing of these (potential) cold air masses surging southeastward is going to obviously be critical. Memphis and much of the western forum area(eastern Arkansas, western KY, northern MS, and sw Missouri) look to be sitting in a good spot for late next week when the first round of cold arrives. It really looks like we are going to see cold come southeast and have difficulty moving as the next system from the STJ "attacks" the departing high. The GFS appears to have reverted to its 18z progression at 500. Nevertheless, the surface looks quite similar if not a bit warmer than 6z. How far that wintry precip spreads eastward is going to depend on where high pressure is, how much cold we get, and how quickly it retreats. Classic set-up for the western forum areas if it verifies.
  16. Carvers Gap
    12z GEPS is also a nice run as well.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Thanks, Holston. Nice ridge out West. Cold coming straight off the pole. I would not be surprised if this evolves similarly to November where we get the Pacific to cooperate and then the NAO kicks in for a a week or two to close that pattern. It has been hinted at...but it wouldn't take much for AN heights to sneak into Greenland in that pattern. Would not surprise me to see the base of that trough retrograde west a bit. That Scandinavian Ridge kind of tipped its hand to blocking being re-establlished or relocated.
  18. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, we couldn’t talk you into a 12z EPS 500 anomaly loop could we? If you are busy, not worries! Probably won’t see a better progressional this winter...so might as well enjoy.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Really nice run of the 12z EPS incoming.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Another flashback...the PV appears to be split late in the run and working its way up. The last two PV splits have been from the strat down. You can just about take it to the bank that when we get these monster ridges in winter alone the EC...it is going to disrupt the PV(even if modeling doesn't show it at first). So, the reason that the higher latitudes are all over the place on different runs is probably due to some "goings on" with the PV being disrupted.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, for sure. I think it is pay me now or pay me later. If a piece of that trough kicks East, we get the first true cold front of January. If it holds back, the entire thing is going to come out. The 12z GFS certainly had plenty of blocking and troughs in the correct places. The SER really wants to hang on in modeling. That is something we will have to watch. I strongly suspect it gets beaten down over time. Looks like some form of an EPO ridge on most modeling with varying "opinions on the rest NA in regards to blocking. Indeed, the 12z GFS basically flipped all of that from 6z but with mid-latitudess staying similar. All of this bouncing around lends itself to a substantial stake-up just after mid-month. The one thing that many models are showing is a stalled frontal boundary over the Upper South and/or Ohio Valley. Have to watch those with big highs in place. That would likely be my second favorite setup for winter storms. Plenty to look at...and some uncertainty as well. But hey, when is the weather ever a certainty? I hold cautious optimism that winter is going to return. If it weren't for last year's head fake, I would be pretty excited. For now, I tread lightly!
  22. Carvers Gap
    MJO continues to improve with it becoming more apparent that there will no be a quick loop back into the warm phases. Options include going into the COD or heading into phases 7/8. Both are not bad.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Of note the 0z EPS pulls BN heights northward and puts a ridge in the West with an unsettled pattern over the East. The 6z GEFS finally moved towards the EPS solutions. Overall, still a nice cold signal from Jan 17-21. After that, still a shakeup expected. Does the cold lift out and get replaced with a zonal look or does the cold stay in NA and reload the eastern trough? Does the PV split as hinted at by American modeling? Before anyone scoffs at the American model at range...the GFS for whatever reason has a pretty good ability to depict TPV splits.
  24. Carvers Gap
    You know a side-by-side NA view of the craptastic pattern in a few days and that last frame of the 18z GFS would be cool. Example A: Garbage Example B: Money
  25. Carvers Gap
    18z is a textbook transition. Right speed but slower than previous runs. But the result of energy being held back is that the ensuing eastern trough digs deeper. The model solutions where pieces of the trough are spit out a little at a time results in a mess. Looks to me like the ridge is going to roll forward in the Pacific. If so, we want enough energy held back to dig the ensuing trough. Just another wild run. When 18z comes around, pretty much pop the popcorn.
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