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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    What is weird is the footage I have has the wind howling behind the tree but the tree barely moving. That tree was downwind of some old stuff that sheltered it. The winds were cutting between two houses and blowing behind it. Pretty wild to look at.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Going to head out and see if the power trucks are working our neighborhood.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Lots of trees down in my neighborhood. Power is out reportedly to 8,000 in this area including mine. I suspect we clocked in over 95-100mph. Started filming the event and had to run in the house and get everyone downstairs when it became apparent this was not your average severe line. House across the way has a tree on it. Heard there were multiple accidents on the interstate. Total mess in my area.
  4. Carvers Gap
    We are about to the point that I am going to be pulled between sleeping and staying up to see what we might be tracking on 0z models.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Pretty much as cold as ensembles can get. Remember ensembles will have warm members included. As we get closer and it is more obvious that potential warmth is off the table, the warm ensemble members will slowly be phased out and the mean gets even colder. Some of these ensemble model runs have it 10-15+F below normal outside of d10. Now, if those have warm ensemble members included...they could verify colder. If we get snow on the ground in this pattern here and in the Midwest, below zero is a possibility. The pattern being modeled could set record lows, but that is getting head of myself big time. Right now, just wanting to make sure we have the pattern correct. I like where it is headed but obviously no guarantees. Last winter will leave me jaded for some time... How much wind are you all getting? I have to drive in this mess today. Should be loads of fun! LOL. Worthy cause though. Wild, wild few weeks of weather coming up I think. Amazing how many good weather patterns were preceded by severe.
  6. Carvers Gap
    And the pattern will highly likely have cold descending into the Plains or front range. We don’t want the cold coming straight off the Lakes as the trough would likely be too far to the East with that pattern. The catch with cold coming from our northwest is that warmups will likely happen in between fronts. The great thing with the blocks up top is that cutters could eventually be blocked. Bad thing to quote either PSU or Chill...blocking will make for fewer chances as the pattern slows but increase the chance for big storms. Though sometimes blocking can lead to higher frequency and strength. Biggest thing is confluence would be over this area.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 0z Euro operational has the trough. Good sign as that is its second run showing that. The GFS will struggle right now. It will generally give a heads up on a change at LR, but it is going to bounce around wildly right now as is other operational stuff. Think of the stuff they are juggling or about to juggle...SOI is going to crash once that cyclone leaves that area. MJO is still evolving. QBO is dropping. Blocking is showing up. Changing wavelengths as we near spring. Big pattern flip being modeled. Potential PV split. Going to be a mess for several days. The key right now is to get the pattern right...and then drill down from there. Way to far out there to nail specifics. Again, roll with ensembles right now. The EPS has been steady. The GEFS seems to get colder with each run.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Ensembles will lead the way right now. They are stone cold. Bout as cold as one can get them at this range. SER is nowhere to be be seen after the 20th. Pretty incredible cold being modeled on the ensembles. The operationals are going to be all over the place. My general rule is that the colder the air on the way, the more they(operationals) jump around. I am probably more encouraged this AM that I have been all week. Considering the warmth this week followed by the cold upcoming, it is conceivable that we could see 50-60 degree changes in high temps over the next two weeks. Depending on the extremes of warm and cold...could be even bigger. The snow means looks solid for this range.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Good overall model agreement overnight regarding the pattern change. Ya'll stay safe in the storms today.
  10. Carvers Gap
    There should be a parade of storms. Energy coming into the West coast right after that.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I am putting you back in the main thread. LOL. The 18z GFS appears to have massive blocking and would actually be a pretty good storm pattern. Holston and anyone else, care to comment. Banana high over the top, STJ is active, cold trapped under that high...ingredients are there for more than one big storm in the East.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Any mention of a re-load of the MJO into cold phases? Also, the MJO when it hits February...some of those warm phases aren't as warm are they? In other words, some chance that this pattern might have a duration of 2.5-4 weeks...or get us to the point we are pretty much sick of it! LOL.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I think to echo the MA forum...encouraging to see AN heights showing up in good places at high latitudes.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Might be. I hadn't thought about it. Normally it does that in the Southwest and it sort of digs a bit much. In this case, it digs a bit much in the Northwest. However, the GEFS at 12z was sort of slow as well. So, @TellicoWx might be right about the models rushing things. However, if we get to the EPS solution that it has had for two straight afternoons...I am willing to wait. Also, my last post should have read...But I can also see where models might be a bit too fast. It wouldn't take much to place the trough in the East earlier than later. That first piece of energy on Jan 16/17 would just need to slide over the ridge and dig. However, if it doesn't and the ridge behind it rolls through...the next trough should do the trick. I like seeing these really deep troughs, because most troughs have been shallower than modeled at verification. I think the chances of a really good storm track after the 20th are growing. I think all operational have the pattern change within d10 now. Pattern changes are always a bear. Sometimes they can speed up and sometimes they take their time.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Just glad to see a shakeup being consistently modeled. I have seen the current warm pattern(during past winters) lock-in for most of winter. Right now, I could make a good argument that the models are not quick enough. But I can also see the scenario where they are a bit slow. Now, if the shakeup were to continue to stall in modeling...that would be a red flag. Oddly, the ensembles are quicker than the operational runs today.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Beautiful run of the EPS. I was wondering what it was doing early on. As tough as it is to see the pattern pushed back about 48 hours, the more that the trough holds energy back...the deeper the ensuing trough. So that little piece that gets spit out around Jan16/17...the weaker it is and the stronger the trough that dumps with that second trough. Really nice run. Better put that one in slow motion, Holston!
  17. Carvers Gap
    Yep, that is the reason the Euro seems to delay the cold. It is not so much a delay in the pattern as it cuts a piece of energy through the Plains where the CMC and GFS shunt it more eastward and allow it to cut into the Ohio Valley. The GFS/CMC bury the trough in the East after the first storm where the Euro does it after the second. So, there is about a 24-48 hour difference in their pattern evolutions. Not unexpected at this range and both of those solutions will likely change some at this range.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Could be that the Euro also has a cutter right after the first cold shot which sort of creates a ridge in front of it. I will have to check.
  19. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro looks much improved. Sends the first shot of seasonal to cool through the East around Jan16/17. It is more muted than say the CMC/GFS...and then places the trough in the East by d10. It is high possible or even likely that the Euro is not amplifying the first wave enough. If so, the trough dumps then and not two days later. Either way...pay me now or pay me later scenario in terms of cold depiction.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Keeping score...So both the 12z GFS and CMC are warmer inside of d10. That fits with the 0z Euro operational run overnight. The 12z GEFS is incredibly cold. Got whiplash yet? LOL.
  21. Carvers Gap
    And the GEFS says not so fast...The 12z run is the coldest run I have seen in a long time. On Pivotal not sure areas of NE TN get above freezing after 204...It only shows 0z and 12z so it probably does go above freezing around 18z(not shown) of some days, but that was frigid.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I think my original(long) post from this AM probably still says it best. Cold shots that have some duration followed by AN heights...wash, rinse, repeat. If we can get heights to build over the top...that would suppress the flow and confluence over this area along with chilly but not oppressively cold temps according to the 12z GFS. Just don't want to see cold getting pushed back like that...that is a dubious trend that we all know to be watchful of.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I think the rainy pattern is here to stay UNLESS the EPO ridge gets really tall and doesn't allow split flow. That 12z run would require a boat if it verified. LOL.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I don't think it is going to quit raining. I think if anything it gets worse. What is being modeling on the 12z GFS is a split flow pattern with massive blocking at higher latitudes. That means everything gets funneled under that big ridge out West and comes this way. Not sure we could dodge a system if we wanted to with that pattern. That is a big hitter pattern in terms of winter, but I absolutely don't believe it. The progression was wonky. Going to need to see the Euro operational cave before I take one step further with its own ensemble, any other ensemble, and definitely not the GFS. The one think that looks good is the MJO which likely moves into very wintry phases. I suspect right now that no model has the pattern correct. I think right now there is so much changing(PV, MJO, seasons, SOI, QBO), they are juggling plates. I do think we see a major shake-up still. I do think it gets cold. I just don't trust the GFS or its ensemble to get the job done. Once the Euro operational and EPS agree, that is the scenario I am rolling with.
  25. Carvers Gap
    This run is a complete break in continuity. It is not all bad, just VERY different at multiple latitudes. I suspect this shake-up is going to be a doozy and modeling just can't handle it.
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