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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    There should be a parade of storms. Energy coming into the West coast right after that.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I am putting you back in the main thread. LOL. The 18z GFS appears to have massive blocking and would actually be a pretty good storm pattern. Holston and anyone else, care to comment. Banana high over the top, STJ is active, cold trapped under that high...ingredients are there for more than one big storm in the East.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Any mention of a re-load of the MJO into cold phases? Also, the MJO when it hits February...some of those warm phases aren't as warm are they? In other words, some chance that this pattern might have a duration of 2.5-4 weeks...or get us to the point we are pretty much sick of it! LOL.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I think to echo the MA forum...encouraging to see AN heights showing up in good places at high latitudes.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Might be. I hadn't thought about it. Normally it does that in the Southwest and it sort of digs a bit much. In this case, it digs a bit much in the Northwest. However, the GEFS at 12z was sort of slow as well. So, @TellicoWx might be right about the models rushing things. However, if we get to the EPS solution that it has had for two straight afternoons...I am willing to wait. Also, my last post should have read...But I can also see where models might be a bit too fast. It wouldn't take much to place the trough in the East earlier than later. That first piece of energy on Jan 16/17 would just need to slide over the ridge and dig. However, if it doesn't and the ridge behind it rolls through...the next trough should do the trick. I like seeing these really deep troughs, because most troughs have been shallower than modeled at verification. I think the chances of a really good storm track after the 20th are growing. I think all operational have the pattern change within d10 now. Pattern changes are always a bear. Sometimes they can speed up and sometimes they take their time.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Just glad to see a shakeup being consistently modeled. I have seen the current warm pattern(during past winters) lock-in for most of winter. Right now, I could make a good argument that the models are not quick enough. But I can also see the scenario where they are a bit slow. Now, if the shakeup were to continue to stall in modeling...that would be a red flag. Oddly, the ensembles are quicker than the operational runs today.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Beautiful run of the EPS. I was wondering what it was doing early on. As tough as it is to see the pattern pushed back about 48 hours, the more that the trough holds energy back...the deeper the ensuing trough. So that little piece that gets spit out around Jan16/17...the weaker it is and the stronger the trough that dumps with that second trough. Really nice run. Better put that one in slow motion, Holston!
  8. Carvers Gap
    Yep, that is the reason the Euro seems to delay the cold. It is not so much a delay in the pattern as it cuts a piece of energy through the Plains where the CMC and GFS shunt it more eastward and allow it to cut into the Ohio Valley. The GFS/CMC bury the trough in the East after the first storm where the Euro does it after the second. So, there is about a 24-48 hour difference in their pattern evolutions. Not unexpected at this range and both of those solutions will likely change some at this range.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Could be that the Euro also has a cutter right after the first cold shot which sort of creates a ridge in front of it. I will have to check.
  10. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro looks much improved. Sends the first shot of seasonal to cool through the East around Jan16/17. It is more muted than say the CMC/GFS...and then places the trough in the East by d10. It is high possible or even likely that the Euro is not amplifying the first wave enough. If so, the trough dumps then and not two days later. Either way...pay me now or pay me later scenario in terms of cold depiction.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Keeping score...So both the 12z GFS and CMC are warmer inside of d10. That fits with the 0z Euro operational run overnight. The 12z GEFS is incredibly cold. Got whiplash yet? LOL.
  12. Carvers Gap
    And the GEFS says not so fast...The 12z run is the coldest run I have seen in a long time. On Pivotal not sure areas of NE TN get above freezing after 204...It only shows 0z and 12z so it probably does go above freezing around 18z(not shown) of some days, but that was frigid.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I think my original(long) post from this AM probably still says it best. Cold shots that have some duration followed by AN heights...wash, rinse, repeat. If we can get heights to build over the top...that would suppress the flow and confluence over this area along with chilly but not oppressively cold temps according to the 12z GFS. Just don't want to see cold getting pushed back like that...that is a dubious trend that we all know to be watchful of.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I think the rainy pattern is here to stay UNLESS the EPO ridge gets really tall and doesn't allow split flow. That 12z run would require a boat if it verified. LOL.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I don't think it is going to quit raining. I think if anything it gets worse. What is being modeling on the 12z GFS is a split flow pattern with massive blocking at higher latitudes. That means everything gets funneled under that big ridge out West and comes this way. Not sure we could dodge a system if we wanted to with that pattern. That is a big hitter pattern in terms of winter, but I absolutely don't believe it. The progression was wonky. Going to need to see the Euro operational cave before I take one step further with its own ensemble, any other ensemble, and definitely not the GFS. The one think that looks good is the MJO which likely moves into very wintry phases. I suspect right now that no model has the pattern correct. I think right now there is so much changing(PV, MJO, seasons, SOI, QBO), they are juggling plates. I do think we see a major shake-up still. I do think it gets cold. I just don't trust the GFS or its ensemble to get the job done. Once the Euro operational and EPS agree, that is the scenario I am rolling with.
  16. Carvers Gap
    This run is a complete break in continuity. It is not all bad, just VERY different at multiple latitudes. I suspect this shake-up is going to be a doozy and modeling just can't handle it.
  17. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS is a perfect example of why one should never, ever share a foxhole with that model. LOL.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I think what we are going to see is a repetitive pattern of cold being dominant when present, pushing the SER down, only to have the SER bounce right back once the cold shot is through. I suspect the changing wavelengths of this upcoming spring are likely about to shake-up the base pattern. So, I think this is a battle of cold vs the SER. In the forum area, we will be right on the battle line. If you want a shot at big snow, that is the place to be. If you want a shot at sustained winter weather for weeks on end, probably not going to happen as that is not really the Nino calling card. Keep the big highs coming along with an active STJ, and we have a shot and maybe more than once. I think modeling has shown the options that we have fairly clearly. One option is that WAA pushes toward the Ohio Valley and we get rain. I suspect that will be the base pattern. However, I think a second storm track will be big highs pressing cold southward(thus squashing the SER) and giving the forum area chances at snow. Looks like one window will be from Jan 20-25(maybe earlier if the GFS is correct...good luck there) and maybe another window in early February(edit). Many good and even great winters have had two storm windows that look a lot like that. I think we will battle the SER the rest of winter. However, I think cold pressing southeast due to changing wavelengths, climatology, and a stout EPO ridge will fight the SER. I do think one danger of such a big -EPO is the trough tucking under it...the EPS illustrates that risk nicely. Overall, I still think we are about to see a fairly strong shakeup beginning around Jan16/17. Duration TBD. That said, what the ensembles depict(edit) is about 1,000x better than the pattern we have been in for the past month and a half. Let's see if we can get the Euro OP to flip. It is a tough nut to crack even under the best of circumstances.
  19. Carvers Gap
    And when I say odd man out....all three global ensembles have flipped, including its own ensemble. All other global operationals have flipped. If it wins against all of that...it has proven its superiority beyond a shadow of a doubt and has re-earned its title as king. But until it flips, I would not put my chips in the cold basket just yet. I have seen the Euro OP take on all comers and win multiple times. But it is really a far outlier right now.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 0z Euro op does not agree with the EPS but is indeed not pretty. Again, this winter if things go badly on a model run, especially the Euro, it will be the 0z run. The Wednesday(edit) night it almost put the ridge in the West only to move to a great solution at 12z. Same deal the night before. The 0z Euro op is now odd man out. It can and does score coups from when it is on its own though. So, the saga continues.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Was kicking around the likelihood of STJ getting shut down today with someone. Never say never but...I think the STJ is going to really attack the base of any trough. This is why people like weak Nino years. Plenty of disturbances working along whatever boundary sets up. I would probably be more worried about WAA problems. My guess is the boundary sets up over the Upper South.
  22. Carvers Gap
    This was shared in the MA forum. Very good look at the MJO progression from today's modeling.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The GEFS has been slowly moving to the EPS...that is pretty much a total cave right there at 18z. Looks like right now that we have global ensembles and the GFS operational on board. The Euro operational should come on board by tomorrow afternoon I would think. Big moves. It is my hope that our new(er) folks get to see a legit pattern flip during a Nino winter. They are a sight to behold when they actually occur.
  24. Carvers Gap
    18z GEFS is basically on board by the end of its run. Trough still isn't deep enough I don't think...but the EPO ridge is massive.
  25. Carvers Gap
    And the Weeklies derived from a "warm" run compared to this afternoon. If they had been derived from this afternoon, would have likely been frigid. The morning run allowed the ridge to push into the mid-section unlike this afternoon's run. The 18z GFS was straight up frigid! John, really pulling for the cold November correlation to win the rest of winter. Looks like it has a fighting chance!
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