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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    0z suite was quite unimpressive regarding ensembles. Not going to belabor the point. Just unreal how many times overnight ensembles look worse, especially the EPS.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Definitely some good trends at 12z and 18z on modeling and ensembles. The good thing is that modeling did not continue trending with yesterday's shift.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I feel confident be pattern is still on target to change. The question is...what is ultimately the new pattern? Sometimes what is actually the transition fools the best of us and the actual base pattern has not settled in...That said, I “think” modeling is now showing its hand. Fortunately, there were not wholesale changes today as there were yesterday. Looks to me like a classic Nino pattern with a bit of extra juice. (This is where I thought we were headed last year). The ultra cold solutions from last week didn’t fit climatology. BUT the trough underneath a ridge in the East is textbook. So looks like ensembles have another cold shot around d13-15. All ensembles showed this at 12z. That is probably our winter wx pattern. Looks to me like this is a step down pattern like November. Remember how long it took to finally kick out that heat ridge? Same deal now. I don’t see signs of a trough locking into the NW. if anything ensembles show a BN heights in the SW which eject eastward. As tnweathernut mentioned, always like to see storms entering the US in Southern California. All of that said, we need the Euro operational to finally begin to show a winter like pattern. There were some much above temps on the operational late in the run.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The pattern did change which modeling did get correct. It has been woefully incorrect about the new patten for Jan 17-24. Lots of zonal components to the new pattern and what once looked like strong cold fronts are nothing more than seasonal(or above) frontal passages. Can't really be called a head fake since the pattern did change. The trough in the West is pretty much gone. But it looks like it is going to be nearly total bust(all three ensembles) with the exclusion of the 2-3 day cold snap next week. Hopefully, we see a continued step down later in the month. At this point that is a variable pattern which is base warm.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Sorry, Holston. Must have posted at the same time. No reference to you post. Basically NA loses its BN temp anomalies until very late in the run when the Yukon reloads. The Yukon reload of cold might be the only positive thing I see on that map along with Holston's Aleutian low. When I am in January having to look at d10 for any hope...we are in a rough stretch. We better hope the EPS has something...because that operational run means the EPS from a few days ago will absolutely not verify or even be close. That is what we call a bust.
  6. Carvers Gap
    As John would say, the 12z Euro operational is pretty much a turd in the punch bowl.
  7. Carvers Gap
    On both the GEFS and GEPS at 12z, there is a signal of another cold shot later in both of those model runs. Again, when an ensemble moves a bit...probably should take note. The MJO is also very much in doubt after phase 7. We have definitely had the exact same situation occur once already. Does it loop back into 5/6 or just die in the COD. I lean towards the COD after seeing the EMON yesterday and after seeing a slight balk on the Euro MJO this morning. It runs right up to 6 and stops for three days. On the EMON, it takes that trajectory and reverses back into the COD. The loop back towards 6 is likely why models are showing a warmup in the mid range and then move back to colder solutions. Let's HOPE that the MJO does not go back into 6....if so, would be mid-Feb before we likely see anything decent in terms of cold again.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Really nice post by PSU in the MA forum. Now, it should be noted that the pattern in DC does not affect most of us. For those living in TRI, I have found that some of their setups do deliver here. Anyway, pay careful attention to the patterns that provided big snows on the coast and their similarities to what is being shown on ensembles. It wouldn't take many adjustments for that to impact us here. Anyway, with not blocking in the Atlantic we need a 50/50 low and that is what is missing on modeling that seems like it should have more storms. I will tag @psuhoffman so he knows I have quoted his post. PSU, hope you don't mind the share.
  9. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS is rolling. Slightly colder with next week's shot of cold air. Moderation is slightly warmer after that. Another shot of colder air at the end of the run which is colder than 6z. Good signs in that we don't want to see any more steps backward. That was basically a hold or even slight improvement.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Bottom line so far at 12z: One will rarely find a pattern as hostile to winter as the one this week. The pattern shake-up next week is still a go. To me, it is not a great pattern nor nearly as good as a few runs ago. However, it is better than this week's which is not saying much but it simply couldn't get any worse. We can steal a storm in the upcoming pattern. It is both active and has cold shots. A sustained pattern with multiple winter events is not on modeling at this time. That could change, but if the cold doesn't hold...tough to get the timing right for a storm at this latitude.
  11. Carvers Gap
    And I should add, there is suppression on the GFS later in its run...However, as we have been getting closer to verification it very much seem like our nemesis is going to be cutters, WAA, or even zonal flow. We may need stuff tracking to Cuba at LR with no blocking in the Atlantic...which oddly the GFS did try to build and then squared.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Key takeaways from the 12z GFS: 1. It is all over the place. Unlikely its timing is remotely correct with so much energy running around. 2. There is a lot of energy in what is a loosely defined split flow pattern. 3. There might be "just enough" cold air. Classic, classic El Nino SE trough stuck under a ridge. 4. I think we can safely say that a suppressed pattern is about as unlikely as snow in July. Looks to me like getting cold to hold is going to be the biggest struggle. What is being modeled (at least for today...we now that will change) is a "warm-up and rain" pattern with some chances for WAA to overrun cold air. 5. It is highly unlikely that modeling has any of this worked out yet. However, looks to me like our first legit chances to track winter storms might be later next week during tnweathernut's storm window. 6. The bleeding has slowed down (meaning pattern going to crap) on the GFS. Trends are still not great, but the spiral has slowed.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The other red flag was when the Euro operational simply did not agree with the EPS and never developed a deep trough. The Euro operational has been very solid.
  14. Carvers Gap
    At least we know the drill this time. Ensembles haven't reverted(yet) to the old pattern. The pattern change is legit. Looks to me like variability is the key. The RMM1 MJO this morning was the red flag. I listed "zonal" as a probability the other day. So here are my new rankings for the new change: 1. Variable pattern which leans cold 2. Zonal after the first cold shot(close second) 3. Sustained eastern cold defined east 15-20 days(distant third) 4. Western Ridge
  15. Carvers Gap
    And it may very well be that a surface trough over the SE persists for a couple of weeks beginning next week, but the trough at 500 on the 18z GEFS is not there for more than a a few hours. Not great news in terms of potential longevity, but we know the drill. I doubt this story has taken its final twist either.
  16. Carvers Gap
    At any rate, the sustained big eastern trough/western ridge(EPO) at 500 that was seen universally on modeling for days...has now mostly disappeared on the 18z GEFS and 12z EPS. And when I mean disappeared...like it is barely on those runs at all.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Something in the back of my mind makes me think that SSWs can be initiated with big spikes like that. And I could be wrong. Rambler...this is not meant for you, just my general musings. I was thinking today of all of the things that have to be right for us to get winter...MJO, QBO, ENSO, AO, PNA, etc. And then I though, sometimes it just gets cold when it wants to get cold. And sometimes it is warm in spite of good alignment of all of those. To me, I think we can add the AAM to that list. It may get warm and have nothing to do with that and it may have everything to do with that.
  18. Carvers Gap
    As I understand it, a strong AAM is associated with El Nino. When it is weaker, during La Nina, it is produces a trough in the West. I have seen the AAM readings really misused on Twitter. The strong AAM is likely playing a part in removing the western trough - not the other way around. I could be wrong. I am not expert on the topic, but some of the tweets give me some pause. No knock on BlueWave...haven't read his post. The 18z actually shows what I think the pattern will evolve to which is strong shots of cold air and storms with warm intermissions. That is classic El Nino stuff right there. That is what I think we don't have to worry about suppression for very long. In fact my worry is the opposite. The EPS actually shows a true El Nino pattern with very weak ridging underneath and marginal cold. That doesn't bother me. That can work. What concerns me is the massive shift. In other words, is that the only shift or is it in the process of shifting to something far less wintry such as a phase 6 look? When an ensemble breaks in continuity, usually means there are more changes coming or it reverts to the previous look...but rarely stays the same. Overall, definite concerns in the LR, but not enough to pull the plug on the variable pattern that should lean cold.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The only good thing I can find is what I posted a few posts back which is that the EMON basically ended the MJO in the COD and doesn't bring it back. What concerns me is the EPS run-to-run change at 500 looks like a trend towards phase 6. I am not entirely convinced any model has the MJO correct as it is forecast to have a lot subsidence in the MJO regions. Agree also, I don't mind the COD either....actually that is not a terrible solution as you point out. What concerns me is the trend towards phase 6. Hopefully that is just a hiccup or corrects to the COD. However, I see some similar trends on the GEFS. The CFS is much colder as it has an entirely different MJO progression after phase 7. I believe a variable pattern is upcoming, and I should not have broken from that thinking this AM. The EPS immediately made me pay for that line that I have in bold. So, an immediate retraction seems wise. I just get excited like the rest of us when I see all of those BN heights. On a positive note, looks like suppression problems could be short lived. LOL. But again, I think a long term variable pattern is probably likely, though nothing is a certainty after next week's cold shot. Looks like the 18z has tnweathernut's storm.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Can't have enough seven foot rebounding machines...especially on a a team that has struggled to rebound. Huge news - literally.
  21. Carvers Gap
    That last line is probably not going to age well. LOL and sorry. I should have known better. I am just going to own it now. Pretty substantial changes to the 12z EPS today and not for the good in the LR. The run-to-run trend in the d10-15 had trends that look like a textbook phase 6 MJO. Maybe we get our pattern back tomorrow and this was a hiccup, but I definitely do not like that 12z run. It was a major break from continuity. As is, we could probably steal a storm or two from that look, but if that is a trend...that is not good. Pattern shift is still a "go" but if that is a trend...the new pattern might not be what we think.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Awesome. I think we had thunder during Saturday's event. There were so many transformers blowing as the wind rolled through here, it was tough to distinguish between the two. Looked like plenty of convective fireworks in SW VA though. I would put the wind event for MBY as a top two event in the time I have lived here and maybe first. If we would have had leaves on the oaks....the trees would have been dropped. As it was, only the pines were affected. Their shallow root systems combined with rainfall and little protection from the dormant deciduous trees allowed them to take a beating. Some of those trees were 50-60 years old or even older.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The real danger is if we get a snowpack up in the mountains, the pattern breaks for even just a few days, and we get rain on that snowpack. Fortunately, Cherokee is where it needs to be to catch the rain from NE TN. If this switches to La Nina, were are going to need every drop. Kind of weird to say that during record rainfall, but Nina summers are scorchers. Not saying that is a given, but on the table as something that might even be a likelihood. As for the upcoming pattern. I still think we get pulses of cold air that come down, sometimes much below normal. I think we get less precip than we are getting now - pretty easy call. Looks like there may be a warm-up(relative to where it is about to go...cold compared to the present) sometime in early February and then cold to follow. The Weeklies tend to ease off the pattern around February 10th....I have my doubts about that. I suspect this pattern lasts roughly 6 weeks with typical warm spells intermixed. I think by the time this pattern is over, we will be ready for spring because the temps will have been cold. What I think will be interesting is if we get a -NAO right as the Pacific relaxes. I mean, this is the time of year it could do that. The newest QBO is neutral between 30-40mb. The MJO on the new LR MJO by the Euro takes the MJO into the COD and leaves it there - fine by me. At this point the Pacific will be the driver w the potential for the Atlantic to help later as we close out the season. Modeling a couple of days ago was very strong with blocking in eastern Canada. Let's see if it picks that up gain. There is potential that this pattern lasts into spring. At any rate, big pattern shake-up appears to be on schedule. I suspect we go BN on temps from January 20th - end of February. I will roll with AN precip w/ some periods where things do dry out.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that STJ is likely going to be active. Precip pattern probably favors E TN a bit more, but no way to be sure yet. Suppression is always a factor, but El Nino winters really fight that off some. If it was La Nina...big, big concern. Also important to realize the GEFS/GFS have been too suppressed all winter...and too cold. So, I bet this pattern modifies northward over time for all except the coldest days. The GEFS mean is actually pretty strong for E TN and has been for several runs. Even the putrid EPS has bumped up a bit. It would likely be an understatement to say that I like where this is going. Not trying to hype, but this look is showing up right when climatology favors bigger winter events. Fingers crossed! I will say this...if the pattern was perfect at 10 days out, I would say the actual pattern would likely be over the Ohio River once it verifies. Keep it down there and we'll just have to take our chances. At worst, I get to see stories of people in Tallahassee playing in the snow. LOL.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS is not warm. 500 pattern is 12z GEFS-esque. Let's fire-up the winter tracking bus and don't let Jeff sit next to the satellite!
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