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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
No. One of the big problems is the persistent ridge east of Hawaii. That teleconnects to a trough in the West. However, the trough over the Aleutians would teleconnect to a trough in the East. Generally, the feature west of Hawaii wins...unless of course that big red ball of death is up there in the North-Central Pacific. What is perplexing is that the GEFS and GEPS have left the EPS on its own. Now, the EPS can and has taken on all comers and won on multiple occasions. Snowgoose in the NE subform, thinks the Euro deal is a transient shift which I assume means that the ridge that is torching us during d8-11 is going to leave. Of greater concern, these strong cold shots modeled in the LR are verifying as nothing more than cold fronts. Very few things irritate me as much as big model shifts on ensembles. I don't remember ensembles being wrong so often compared to now. Used to they barely budged. So, maybe this isn't a head fake as much as it is a transient warm-up...don't hold your breath there, but know that is a possible outcome. You know, if I was forced to make a Feb forecast with no modeling...I would still go with a variable pattern w/ a slight lean BN. I am going to have to dig back through the fall thread, but we might have had a couple of delays and head fakes right before that pattern changed. This was a bad one though. Hey, but if fooled the CPC a couple of days, so we weren't the only ones.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
12z EPS supports the operational but obviously muted. A bit of a red flag is the drastic reduction in the QPF across much of North America. Overall, the trend is for increasing heights over much of eastern NA.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Our hope right now is that the 12z GEPS/GEFS are correct about where the pattern goes from d10-15. We know those great looking patterns have not materialized inside of d10. But it is all we have. Maybe for once the Euro will be wrong. LOL...right. Anyway, for kicks and giggles take a look at the gold on the GEPS while knowing that look has not materialized even one time since November.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Other than the cold snap that lasts for about 48 hours, there is no change to the pattern over the lower 48. The big Pacific Ridge is gone, but trough is solidly entrenched in the West and massive ridge in the East with temps later next weekend possibly eclipsing highs this week - if they verify. The only silver lining is that the Euro operational sends the cold to Baja and that is a classic feedback signal. But there is zero evidence on the operational that the pattern over the lower 48 has done nothing but relax. Hopefully the EPS disagrees, but that is a prolonged MJO phase 6 pattern.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
@144 the massive ridge in the East is back and remains(and strengthens) through 240 on the Euro operational. Trough in the West. Unreal. Hoping that is transient, but surely does not appear to be so as it is barely moving late in the run. Officially by all ensembles for the time from of Jan16/17 to 25...a head fake. Temperatures in Quebec are nearly +40F with temps over the TN Valley at +20F with temps in the upper60s and approaching 70 by the end of the run.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Well, the 12z Euro gets rid of the cutter at 204 and tries for a weak Miller A. Problem...temps are MUCH above normal.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
I think one thing we have learned is that if the waters are warm in the western Atlantic where MJO phase 6 is...need to temper forecasts from the get go. LOL.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
One last nugget...it appears the QBO is decently in the negative range at 30mb. That would likely accentuate any late season blocking on the horizon. Let's see if we begin to see some Atlantic blocking show up.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
I was watching JB this morning...so credit goes to his group for the following comments. I will add some of my own spin as well. He mentioned that the new JMA is depicting substantial subsidence over almost all of the areas that are considered warm phases of the MJO. There is convection forecast in 8, 1, and 2. But here is the problem, the Modoki El Nino is warm right in the area where phase 6 is. So, what happens is the phase 6 areas have convection along with 8, 1, and 2. He says that the null phase of the MJO being shown on the CPC might not be a null phase at all but actually be these two conflicting areas of convection that wash-out the MJO signal. In other words, the MJO is alive and well and that the MJO is indeed not in the null phase at all. It is in 8/1/2 and 6/7 simultaneously. Going back to your comment, I think we have ENSO region 4 that is like bath water and is really acting like a super Nino for that area. In the area closes to North America, we have what is basically a La Nina. Both of those SST configurations are massive signals for a SER. The good think about the JMA is that it has flipped cold in its Weeklies look. Do I believe that verifies? Nah. It did that last year and woefully busted. I do think we see much more cooler weather, but will it be able to hook-up with any of these systems in the active STJ? And yes, this is EXACTLY why I hate El Nino winters. They are cloudy, rainy, and warm - most of the winter except for what many will correctly say are a few glorious events. They often get here late and sometimes not at all. That said, this upcoming pattern is a big hitter patten though it might not be a pattern that has sustained cold. Just a parade of storms lined up which are getting forced south by that Hudson Bay block. If we land one storm that is juiced, nobody remembers the crap temps. I had hoped to never see those 90s winters again. That said, plenty of storms line-up. Let's see where it goes.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
0z suite was quite unimpressive regarding ensembles. Not going to belabor the point. Just unreal how many times overnight ensembles look worse, especially the EPS.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Definitely some good trends at 12z and 18z on modeling and ensembles. The good thing is that modeling did not continue trending with yesterday's shift.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
I feel confident be pattern is still on target to change. The question is...what is ultimately the new pattern? Sometimes what is actually the transition fools the best of us and the actual base pattern has not settled in...That said, I “think” modeling is now showing its hand. Fortunately, there were not wholesale changes today as there were yesterday. Looks to me like a classic Nino pattern with a bit of extra juice. (This is where I thought we were headed last year). The ultra cold solutions from last week didn’t fit climatology. BUT the trough underneath a ridge in the East is textbook. So looks like ensembles have another cold shot around d13-15. All ensembles showed this at 12z. That is probably our winter wx pattern. Looks to me like this is a step down pattern like November. Remember how long it took to finally kick out that heat ridge? Same deal now. I don’t see signs of a trough locking into the NW. if anything ensembles show a BN heights in the SW which eject eastward. As tnweathernut mentioned, always like to see storms entering the US in Southern California. All of that said, we need the Euro operational to finally begin to show a winter like pattern. There were some much above temps on the operational late in the run.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
The pattern did change which modeling did get correct. It has been woefully incorrect about the new patten for Jan 17-24. Lots of zonal components to the new pattern and what once looked like strong cold fronts are nothing more than seasonal(or above) frontal passages. Can't really be called a head fake since the pattern did change. The trough in the West is pretty much gone. But it looks like it is going to be nearly total bust(all three ensembles) with the exclusion of the 2-3 day cold snap next week. Hopefully, we see a continued step down later in the month. At this point that is a variable pattern which is base warm.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Sorry, Holston. Must have posted at the same time. No reference to you post. Basically NA loses its BN temp anomalies until very late in the run when the Yukon reloads. The Yukon reload of cold might be the only positive thing I see on that map along with Holston's Aleutian low. When I am in January having to look at d10 for any hope...we are in a rough stretch. We better hope the EPS has something...because that operational run means the EPS from a few days ago will absolutely not verify or even be close. That is what we call a bust.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
As John would say, the 12z Euro operational is pretty much a turd in the punch bowl.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
On both the GEFS and GEPS at 12z, there is a signal of another cold shot later in both of those model runs. Again, when an ensemble moves a bit...probably should take note. The MJO is also very much in doubt after phase 7. We have definitely had the exact same situation occur once already. Does it loop back into 5/6 or just die in the COD. I lean towards the COD after seeing the EMON yesterday and after seeing a slight balk on the Euro MJO this morning. It runs right up to 6 and stops for three days. On the EMON, it takes that trajectory and reverses back into the COD. The loop back towards 6 is likely why models are showing a warmup in the mid range and then move back to colder solutions. Let's HOPE that the MJO does not go back into 6....if so, would be mid-Feb before we likely see anything decent in terms of cold again.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Really nice post by PSU in the MA forum. Now, it should be noted that the pattern in DC does not affect most of us. For those living in TRI, I have found that some of their setups do deliver here. Anyway, pay careful attention to the patterns that provided big snows on the coast and their similarities to what is being shown on ensembles. It wouldn't take many adjustments for that to impact us here. Anyway, with not blocking in the Atlantic we need a 50/50 low and that is what is missing on modeling that seems like it should have more storms. I will tag @psuhoffman so he knows I have quoted his post. PSU, hope you don't mind the share.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
12z GEFS is rolling. Slightly colder with next week's shot of cold air. Moderation is slightly warmer after that. Another shot of colder air at the end of the run which is colder than 6z. Good signs in that we don't want to see any more steps backward. That was basically a hold or even slight improvement.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Bottom line so far at 12z: One will rarely find a pattern as hostile to winter as the one this week. The pattern shake-up next week is still a go. To me, it is not a great pattern nor nearly as good as a few runs ago. However, it is better than this week's which is not saying much but it simply couldn't get any worse. We can steal a storm in the upcoming pattern. It is both active and has cold shots. A sustained pattern with multiple winter events is not on modeling at this time. That could change, but if the cold doesn't hold...tough to get the timing right for a storm at this latitude.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
And I should add, there is suppression on the GFS later in its run...However, as we have been getting closer to verification it very much seem like our nemesis is going to be cutters, WAA, or even zonal flow. We may need stuff tracking to Cuba at LR with no blocking in the Atlantic...which oddly the GFS did try to build and then squared.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Key takeaways from the 12z GFS: 1. It is all over the place. Unlikely its timing is remotely correct with so much energy running around. 2. There is a lot of energy in what is a loosely defined split flow pattern. 3. There might be "just enough" cold air. Classic, classic El Nino SE trough stuck under a ridge. 4. I think we can safely say that a suppressed pattern is about as unlikely as snow in July. Looks to me like getting cold to hold is going to be the biggest struggle. What is being modeled (at least for today...we now that will change) is a "warm-up and rain" pattern with some chances for WAA to overrun cold air. 5. It is highly unlikely that modeling has any of this worked out yet. However, looks to me like our first legit chances to track winter storms might be later next week during tnweathernut's storm window. 6. The bleeding has slowed down (meaning pattern going to crap) on the GFS. Trends are still not great, but the spiral has slowed.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
The other red flag was when the Euro operational simply did not agree with the EPS and never developed a deep trough. The Euro operational has been very solid.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
At least we know the drill this time. Ensembles haven't reverted(yet) to the old pattern. The pattern change is legit. Looks to me like variability is the key. The RMM1 MJO this morning was the red flag. I listed "zonal" as a probability the other day. So here are my new rankings for the new change: 1. Variable pattern which leans cold 2. Zonal after the first cold shot(close second) 3. Sustained eastern cold defined east 15-20 days(distant third) 4. Western Ridge- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
And it may very well be that a surface trough over the SE persists for a couple of weeks beginning next week, but the trough at 500 on the 18z GEFS is not there for more than a a few hours. Not great news in terms of potential longevity, but we know the drill. I doubt this story has taken its final twist either.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
Carvers Gap replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
At any rate, the sustained big eastern trough/western ridge(EPO) at 500 that was seen universally on modeling for days...has now mostly disappeared on the 18z GEFS and 12z EPS. And when I mean disappeared...like it is barely on those runs at all.- 1,666 replies