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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Bham, if we get snow out of this, we may just pay to move you up here each winter.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Was digging around and looking at 1954-1955 data which I think will prove to be a legitimate analog for this winter w some slight adjustment for a slightly warmer climate. It featured an early snowfall in November and not much in December. Looks like December was a good month followed by less during February. What that tells me is that winter had a good, but narrow window for winter weather. Reference is pg 72 of the document linked below. Kingsport 54-55 Snowfall Data by month and season
  3. Carvers Gap
    Fortunately for TRI, the much advertised much AN torch is over. TRI sits at +9.7 and that includes a -11 day yesterday. Impressively, TRI had one +32 day! Looks like upcoming highs will now be more run-of-the-mill Nino AN stuff. Highs will be in the 50s here with lows in the 30s. Before I make this slip-up again, I actually don't think this winter will be classified as a weak Nino. It will likely be a Nada. The overall ENSO is weakly positive for sure but not Nino level. Some regions are not even close. I slip up often and call it a weak Nino, but in reality...it is not. And La Nada winters here are not productive as a general rule IMBY. We actually need a stronger driver from an ENSO standpoint, but not too strong. My preferred winter pattern is a weak La Nina by a long shot, because I like cold. If you like BIG winter storms, the pattern we are in has some of those elements - just not nickel and dime stuff that makes it feel like winter. I have definitely been through worse winters. One winter during the early 80s, we had just moved back from Florida. We had a super cold December. I remember the inside of the car windows freezing up while the heater was on. We got very little snow. The one really good storm that we had was followed by rain which washed it away right as the snow ended. Man, that was the worst. When I was at UT during the early 90s, I was walking around in t-shirts during January and February. The late 90s were absolutely the worst though, minus some fluke big storms. So far, this winter reminds me of those late 90s winters. But it isn't over yet. Overall, I think we will look back at the severe event from two weekends ago as the demarcation point for when the pattern changed. Now, the new pattern may not be much better than the old pattern, but it is not worse - yet! Yesterday, we had a high of 26. Today was slightly warmer. We have received light snow both days. Nothing appreciable but made if feel like winter. Next couple of weeks will be textbook Nino stuff with BN height sneaking into the SE from time to time. Maybe we score a storm. Maybe we don't. That HB high is going to keep sending storms south. If any modeling misses a cold front, look out. So that gets us to Feb 5th. What then? 10 million dollar question. Verbatim, looks like a substantial pattern shift and maybe another step down. We do know that modeling has universally been mistaken with this look already this winter. What is interesting is that modeling had incredible cold, lost it, and now has it again but about two weeks later. I am not an optimist by nature, but pretty much a realist with a touch of idealism. I generally just call it as I see it which is one reason I pulled the plug on my optimism last week. That Thursday run of the EPS was such a change, I knew the rest of January was toast in terms of temps. The EPS continues to call for a decent pattern in a couple of weeks. Both the GEFS and GFS have something similar. Target time frame would be Feb 5th. If that date keeps getting pushed back, we know something is up. I wouldn't be surprised to see it pushed back a couple of days, but more than that and we know the drill. It is on the table that the same step-down pattern from October could be occurring with a final flip. That has precedent. It is also possible that we get another head fake and the rest of winter is just a dud. For either of those scenarios, it won't we the first time and it won't be the last time. As of today, I am encouraged by the pattern ahead. Maybe LR guidance can score the win this time. A big factor in our favor is February and November both feature a change of seasons and that has a tendency to change things up. Last year is an example of when that did not happen.
  4. Carvers Gap
    In NE TN, we have had some really good winters during the last 15 years and some not so good ones for sure. 13-14 and 14-15 were really good. 09-10 were really good. 14-15 is the most snow I have ever seen in Kingsport during a winter. In January of 2013, we had thunder snow here. December of 2018 was super cold. Last winter we had a foot in early December. It has not been easy for you all south of of I-40 for sure. But up here, I can't complain. Unfortunately, non-winters are a norm in Kingsport from time to time, and they usually come in bunches. The 90s were considerably worse. I thank my lucky stars every day not to have to live through those non-winters again(some notable great winters were during the 90s...but many were awful). On this side of the valley we need the AMO to flip in order to get more help from the Atlantic. We need that extra kick from a -NAO as part of our precip pattern is form Miller A stuff as you know. Knoxville's winters became considerably worse from about 1988 onward which is around when the AMO flipped. In Knoxville, I would say the winter bad winter cycle, excluding some good years, is running at about three decades. Probably have 5-10 years before it flips again. Maybe we will get lucky and it will flip sooner. The AMO trajectory is definitely declining. As for this weekend, it was always an outside shot. We will see where February goes.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I think this is cold chasing rain so far regarding this this weekend. Looks like the Euro is on board with that too. Wish I had better news. Cold rain and then some upslope snow showers on Sunday. After that, looks like patience will be a virtue as the next encompassing cold shot is due sometime around Feb 5. Might still get a chance for snow before that. However, if LR guidance is correct...the wait is on which was expected regarding the Weeklies run overnight.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Bham, looks like models have converged on sending stronger energy to our west with the secondary forming nearly at our same latitude. We need that secondary to be stronger and forming earlier to our SE. Still a couple of runs for that to potentially change back. This is a notoriously tricky set-up. Usually energy transfer situations where the slp reforms over the Piedmont favor far NE TN and SW VA. Right now, even those areas have seen the storm back off. Might see some upslope once it passes though. Just gave one final glance of the Euro...looks like the highest elevations will deal with mixing and snow during the first part of the event. Then rain. Then some upslope snow at the end of the event.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Nothing really to add at this point. Great discussion overnight. The Renaissance of the Renaissance continues. About the only think I can think of at 6:45AM is that if that PV were to dislodge with the mean trough now showing up over the eastern U.S......got about a 50/50 shot at extreme stuff. But at this point, I am not sure we want it disrupted with our fair share of cold already here. We will see where the MJO is this morning. The 6z GFS again has a parade of winter storms and potential winter storms.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I would be shocked if that verified as one doesn't see that on modeling every winter. Severe break from continuity. Let's see if any subsequent runs get close. Obviously won't be that good every run. That is a rare bird right there. However, that is what a Hudson Bay high can do and why it has produced many good snowstorms in the East. Watch it force all of that energy southeast and even manages a banana high at times.
  9. Carvers Gap
    If we can take one thing from this run that might be real...the spacing in between storms is ideal.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Yes, 7d 500mb anomaly map for the last 7 days of the 18z GFS run. The one day map around 360 is about as blue as I have seen it.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 18z has a Miller B, two Miller As, a slider, and a clipper. The snowfall maps are a bit wonky as the valleys get far less than the foothills. That is likely due to the position of the slp and that modeling is notorious for not getting the temp crash in the northwest quadrant correct. But those SLPs in that run were boomers. One is at 988 on its way 974 over Massachusetts. The next one is 999 over western NC on its way to 983 over Toronto. If anything, this run probably show where the pattern "could" go and not necessarily where it "will" go. Holston do you have the 7 day 500 anomaly map for d8-15 of that run? I am about out of space. It shows how different that run is. Probably an outlier, but interesting to see.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The great thing is as a hobby we can let her rip. If we miss, no biggie. One of these days, we will reel in a pattern like that. Maybe not this time. Again, that extra cold front around d8-9 might not be real. It totally changes the complexity of that run. Good thing is, that is actually inside of d10 - barely. But the way I look at, just enjoy the ride. Speaking of wild swings, you and I noticed modeling getting "fidgety" yesterday. That is usually a sure sign they are getting ready to bounce around. I highly doubt modeling is done bouncing. The only thing in our favor is we are due for a pattern change. So we will learn from the last head fake. We will enjoy it from afar, but we are not buying that look yet unless it is with Monopoly money.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The difference on the 18z GFS is that it sneaks in an additional cold front right around d8. Fun run though.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS is a quite a run. Easily the best of the year with two Miller As(not counting this weekend's system) and a slider so far.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Here are the first 14 days of November. Here is the seven day time frame found on the Euro Weeklies for Feb 4-11 at 500mb. Pretty close. I am ahead of myself for sure. Would be really neat to see that even get close. And for sure, that is apples to oranges since one is a temp map and one is 500. (Edit) I have found the Weekly temp maps take some time to catch-up to the 500 map though the surface from Feb 7-14 looks similar. Remember...huge grain of salt at this point, but fun to discuss.
  16. Carvers Gap
    And the question is...Is this another head fake? That is entirely possible. Just sharing some maps, information, and opinions. But again, the good thing is that the Weeklies actually do match the next run at 12z. The control run, while not great for us, dumps four feet over the NE. That would imply a good storm track for us as well which the mean does support. Take with a huge grain of salt. @holston, do you have the November gif in your library anywhere of the 500 pattern? Have to think the Weeklies look pretty similar. I have one map in my attachments that looks very similar. We will enjoy this run, and see where it goes from here.
  17. Carvers Gap
    This is centered on February 6 to March 6. It is the 30 day 500mb anomaly. Trough is at times deeper and shallower, but this is a pretty good average of the daily looks. That is a decent storm pattern with cold source regions. And that is a cooperative Pacific.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies actually correlate to the 12z EPS today...that is a good thing considering that it is derived from the 0z Euro suite. Cold in Alaska dives in the eastern U.S., forms a massive trough, tries to lift out, gets trapped, and rotates cold into the eastern US for about four weeks. Not all cold, but basically a BN heights over HB pinwheeling cold fronts into the US until it burns out. Only danger would be that it tightens up so much that heights rise underneath it. When I saw it, I thought that looked like a pretty good storm look. NE TN has a snow mean of nearly 11." Rest of the area is climatology or better. Fits the trends of the last 36 hours where modeling has cooled considerably during 10-15. @weathertree4u, no idea of this verifies but sort of confirms what you were asking about earlier today. Warm-up is being shortened and muted. A friend shared with me Eric Webb on Twitter commented on exactly that. No idea if it holds. We need the MJO to get out of 5/6 quickly if it goes back...but we can be cautiously optimistic today that it appears that winter may have left a light on for us. Temps for the next 46 days are normal on the Euro Weeklies. That is good sign for a model that is typically warm.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The ensembles for dang sure missed that.
  20. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro accentuated the northern stream energy for this weekend's storm. That means the SE low takes longer to form. Was very similar to the GFS. That would leave an upslope event by not snow from the storm for really anyone. Still, was not very different. Given the Euro bias for being too strong, I wouldn't rule this one out just yet.
  21. Carvers Gap
    If anything, it may be that things don't really lock-in for more than 7-10 days at a time. The 12z GEFS is colder in the d10-15. Very interested to see where the EPS and Euro operational trend. GEFS is nice to look at, but seems prone to some drastic fluctuations right now. Also will be interesting to see where the GEPS goes. Really just looking for trends at the moment, but I thought the mean was kind of interesting - just for kicks and giggles.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Do I think this is right? Unlikely but worth a share for comparison purposes. Full run 12z GEFS snow mean.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Yeah. All of it will never be perfect for sure. I was telling someone the other day that a lot of these other indices are like when your engine lights come on in your care. You get a bunch of them going off about different things. In the end, it is all likely tied to one or two causes. I think the MJO, the PV, and ENSO state are driving this car right now. I am actually interested to see if the QBO can induce blocking...we are at about the time of year when the Atlantic will throw us a bone. One could probably make a case that the HB block is saving us from a true torch right now. When things let up and it cools here, it is usually because the MJO has moved into a favorable phase. It is playing with house money when forecasting right now.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Looks to me like phases 1 and 2 are firing which is exactly what the 12z GFS looked like. The GFS barely lets the trough at 500 return for more than 2-3 days. Still a warm pattern, but that 500 look is an improvement. The CMC operational actually has a GOA low vs an Alaskan vortex. Minor change, but you can see the impact downstream at 500. The wave could propagate eastward into warmer phases for sure. Some of that looks like it is heading away from the equator in a southern trajectory. That would be a plus. Check out 384 on the GEFS (North American) view...I have seen that movie before. Anyway, looks like a very active weather pattern. The GFS actually has three storm to monitor. The trend has been suppression. So, it might be that a storm to our northwest actually trends back to us depending on the HB block. If anything the message right now is that the pattern for late January and early February is far from settled.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Additionally, the GFS and CMC are not Where is that, Holston? I can't tell...
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