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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    And that cutoff is likely coming out of there at some point anyway...big storm if so.
  2. Carvers Gap
    All of that said, that is sort of how the 0z EPS works the eastern trough. If the Southwest cut-off low is wrong(and again, huge Euro bias), much of the cold in Alaska would be ejected into the trough in the East. Will be interesting to look at the control to see where it would have gone.
  3. Carvers Gap
    If I hadn't already seen a head fake this winter, I would say that the Euro at 198 is in error diving into the Southwest. No other model has anything that digs even remotely that much. When it gets energy over the 4 corners, one of its biases is to dig far too much. Certainly looks like it is doing that. It may very well be right, but it does not have support from any other model. It has scored one coup this winter with that look, so it has to be taken seriously. But it has also historically missed on multiple occasions with that look. Anyway, my interpretation is that is an error. Additionally, its depiction is completely different at 12z than at 0z over Alaska. Looks like it still will dig the trough in the East if it had about 36 more hours.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Interesting to see the 12z GEFS - always comes out earlier on Pivotal Weather. Anyway, it builds the aforementioned EC ridge/SER(very late in the run) for about thirty hours and then beats it back down. Overall, nice run. Again, it has been noted that keeping the trough in place is going to take some special mojo. Some warming is noted over the pole which likely means the PV might be displaced or be about to be displaced. It cannot be overstated how much this SPV/PV disruption is going to cause issues in LR modeling. Two springs ago (2018) the PV split and models never caught up.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Great to have you posting! We have a great group of posters from your area. Jump right in!
  6. Carvers Gap
    LOL. That is funny right there. #subforumsnowhole
  7. Carvers Gap
    We will see where the ensembles take us, but both the CMC and GFS still have the arrival time for the trough around February 5th. I am using that date so we know if the can is getting kicked down the road. Tough not to like the synoptic set-up next weekend. GOM Miller A is on both the CMC and GFS. If we want snow, probably need the storm to strengthen some. A weak system will likely be rain. A stronger system likely results in snow this side of the Apps for someone north of I-40 in the eastern Valley. Temps are most definitely not ideal. What is encouraging is that there are multiple storms on both models. An interesting feature with this weekend's setup is the piece of energy that dives into the back of departing storm. It is on both the 12z CMC and GFS. If we get blanked on the initial storm, it could sneak in and give folks some snow showers and light accumulations. Keep in mind those little pieces of energy like to trend north over time.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Happy Hour on the GFS has come one run early! Model mayhem is well underway. That is just total wildness!!! Finally got a look at the CPC version of the MJO. It has backed-off phase 6. Dare I say it. It is not out of the realm of possibility that the GEFS is actually going to score a coup on where it goes next. The EURO corrected "sort of" towards the GEFS. The GEFS version would be very cold. I have noted more than a few times that this pattern evolution reminds me a lot of October to November. Wavelengths are changing. The pattern has been very warm, but has stepped down during the last couple of weeks. It should be noted that American modeling handled the MJO better than the EURO. This will be a week full of marginal events. Going to have to watch each one of them. Time of day could be a factor.
  9. Carvers Gap
    At 282, the Great Cajun Blizzard of 2020 is unfolding on the 12z GFS. Or should we just call it the 30A crusher?
  10. Carvers Gap
    Great post.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Tough week to be a weather forecaster. Lots of marginal stuff, especially along the TN/KY border.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Unless something changes, which it could, the trough on all ensembles is still supposed to arrive on February 5. That has been consistently moving up in time. As noted, this trough is unlikely to stick. What we are looking for is 4-5 days of a decent pattern and then try to steal a storm from that pattern. The GEFS MJO forecast (notably not worth much) this AM takes the MJO in phases 2-3 which are cold during JFM. It does this at high amplitude. The GEFS has actually corrected eastward with its trough likely due to that MJO shift. Definitely need to keep an eye on the Euro as its playing games in the West. As with the last head fake, that can be real but a lot of times that is a bias to dump a trough into the Southwest. I did compare the operational and EPS and they are not much different. The operational is just now at February 5 which is d10 and not reliable at that range. At some point, we need to see the operational correct eastward. But the Euro operational bounces around quite a bit at d9-10. I don't see other modeling dumping the initial trough west. We will see where the Euro MJO is this morning - not out yet. Overall, the cold is moving forward in time, but now that change will get into the "inside of d10" wheelhouse during the next couple of days. So, we should get a better idea on what is real and what is not. Still A LOT of plates right now that modeling is juggling. I said a couple of days ago that we were going to see some wild swings in modeling(some we like and some we don't) with this strat stuff going on. If real, that is a MAJOR wrench and modeling and tough to know where it goes.
  13. Carvers Gap
    And before I forget, great game to our resident Kansas Jayhawk!
  14. Carvers Gap
    Right at the end of the run, the 18z GEFS manages to take a trough along the EC and put it in Oregon in 24 hours. It may end up being correct, but its verification scores pretty much speak volumes there. The EPS and Euro, while certainly not infallible and not great with SSW events, sure seems like it is locked onto the SPV and PV being disrupted. Model mayhem is only going to get worse if the PV is about to be disturbed. Going to see some wild, wild runs. The 18z GFS was likely the first of many. LR modeling will likely struggle mightily with the resulting blocking from those changes.
  15. Carvers Gap
    And yes it is the 18z GEFS, but the high latitude blocking is nearly perfect late in that run. The trough east of Hawaii is is an added bonus. Model mayhem in full force.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Happy hour GFS rarely disappoints!!! IMBY, I actually think late December of 2018 and into early January was incredibly cold. I have photos of our rivers being frozen across in one of those threads. I think sometimes when a cold spell falls across two months, it skews things. But no doubt, the last two Novembers have been cold and the heart of winter warm in general. There have been some really good discussions on how March has cooled in the last decade or so. Places at our latitude out West have been doing really well and even south of. For those in Memphis, I think winters are much different than I remember as a kid. The AMO flip has impacted weather big time in that location. Prior to the flip in 1989ish, Memphis had plenty of cold. Not so much any more. IMBY, you can just about take a pencil and cut off the "cold winters" right there with a few exceptions. Now, as the AMO has trended downward, winters in NE TN have at least improved to the point that the are not 90s caliber. These two winters have been largely La Nada winters. La Nada winters in NE TN are generally very meh. Without ENSO 4 this winter, the Pacific ENSO would have been flat. I catch myself mistakenly saying this is a weak El Nino. It is not. It is a La Nada which is weakly positive. We need an actual weak event either as Nina or Nino and not just marginal weak stuff IMO.
  17. Carvers Gap
    The GFS manages to have the entire lower 48 BN at 384. Not going to happen, but fun to look at. February 5 has been the date for me from the get go for a fairly strong trough. Knock on wood, that looks on track. I thought the position of the slp on the 18z GFS was pretty textbook for next weekend. Get that, and someone even with marginal temps, scores IMO if it falls at night. I have seen that look verify as snow multiple times as snow, even when modeled as rain. It may end up raining, but that is not a given as rain. Temps are in the mid to upper 30s in NE TN w/ 850s crashing. That run would be accumulating snow for NE TN. TBD what the actual outcome is.
  18. Carvers Gap
    If Tennessee will play like that, they can win a bunch of games. Bowden and Pons carried the team offensively. Fulkerson fought in the paint. Much improved second half. Azubuike is a man among children. Mercy.
  19. Carvers Gap
    We have no answer on defense in the paint, well except to foul.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The control is just one cold air mass after another entering the eastern 2/3 of the country after 240. Fairly impressive.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Yep, so IMO what is skewing the 500 map late(my maps at wxbell don't look quite as drastic w troughing into the West) is a cluster a individuals(roughly 1/3) w/ AN heights in the East. Those numbers are fewer, but very strong. So, really what looks like a trough going into the West is the model stuck between two solutions but leaning towards an eastern trough. As we get closer, the ensemble will eliminated the members which are likely not going to happen. That will sharpen where that trough goes. So, I might actually guess the trough will drop into the center of the country. Almost all ensembles are having the same issue. What we are getting is solution that splits the difference. What is encouraging is it is possible that the block actually captured part of the PV on the EPS and locked it over NA. Would be nice if future runs did the same. Again, until this SPV disruption gets ironed-out...going to be some wild runs.
  22. Carvers Gap
    What I see on the EPS is a model that deepened the trough over the East but has some solutions over the West. And yeah, if you see a trough leaning like that....storms will ride the boundary. Just have to catch one that hits it at the right time. I will go back and look at the individual 500mb members. I suspect there will be two camps, eastern trough vs western trough. Split the difference into the Plains and that still works.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Here is the comparison. The air mass that gets trapped by the two blocks is more substantial than 0z. New run is on the left. These are 850 temps. Note how warm Greenland is. This is a workable look as that trapped area of BN heights would likely pinwheel colder temps into most of the country. Edit: That is hour 348.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the back side of the trough digs in. As we have noted earlier, we probably aren't going to lock that trough in the East for long, But if we can get it there just long enough, we might be able to steal a storm as it moves in and retrogrades back. Most modeling has that. If the SPV continues to be disrupted, this is going to be a wild ride. Ensembles are likely not to have the LR pattern down at this point. They might, but doubtful. Why? Because PV disruptions can lead to extreme solutions at mid-latitudes and those will get washed out on ensembles.
  25. Carvers Gap
    All day, every day.
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