Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,665

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Regarding the d10+ pattern....edit...my guess is that ensembles are stuck between MJO phases 1/2 and 5/6. So, likely is just two different solutions within the same depiction. Right now, the only model I halfway trust is the Euro operational. So, almost better to extrapolate from it. It "almost" is something good from a pattern perspective at the end. But extrapolating d10+ from modeling is likely unwise, at least on a message forum. Looks like modeling is trying to cook-up one or two storms beginning next weekend.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Just speaking of the pattern. I don't think the ECMWF knows if it is going into phase 5. If it doesn't...we are in business. If it does, warm. Personally, looks to me like the EPS is holding energy into the southwest and it fouled that run. Look at the 12z GEFS and GEPS and it is almost the same set-up but without the southwest bias.
  3. Carvers Gap
    EPS control has a big storm right after d10.
  4. Carvers Gap
    For folks in NE TN, going to have to watch next weekend's storm if the Euro is correct. That has been a workable setup during the past decade. Variations of that setup are on each global ensemble at 12z. Bit of a long shot, but we have nothing else...and we know that still has room to trend. On the CMC, many areas see light snowfall. Also, if one loops the 500 map on the Euro operational. Sure looks like those heights are lifting out of Alaska with an EPO ridge sliding in underneath. Yeah, it is a 10 day map...so there is that.
  5. Carvers Gap
    See what you all think about the LR 12z GEFS after d10+. I can't tell. Pretty rare to see that look. So guessing it has one foot in one camp of "thought" and one foot in another. The GEPS looks really good. For today, I am going to assume the GEFS is heading there...some sarcasm intended. As for the MJO @Holston_River_Rambler, looks like it is going to abruptly reverse out of the bad phases once it enters. What I don't like is to see it slowly creeping in there for a few days. Next thing you know, it will be circling back through. LOL!
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 0z Euro has an upslope event within reasonable range. The 6z GFS has two potential winter storms. Temps are still lousy on the ensembles with minor improvements late in each run. I think the best we can do for the next 2-3 weeks is to try to find a needle in a haystack. Nobody is saying that it will happen, but it can snow during a warm pattern.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, Jon was a great poster when he was over in the SE forum. That JMA was a good run. And yeah, pretty sure it was made right before the models flipped. The EPS broke bad at 12z on 1/16/20. LOL. The JMA has not been the best with handling the MJO this winter. I do like its week 3 forecasts though. They do OK. I don't really hold any Weeklies accountable if they were published pre-flip. Ha!
  8. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I didn't mean it that way. It was not a response to you. I was just saying it looks like it was right. The Euro operational has been stellar in refusing to flip, even disagreeing with its own ensemble and all other global ensembles. So just comparing ensembles, the EPS is a lot warmer and has a somewhat different progression than the GEPS and GEFS after d10. I would probably bet on the EPS, but not without hesitation. In recent memory, there have been two times that the EPS has totally missed a pattern by going too warm...November 2018 and November 2019. This does sort of have that feel to it. That said the other ensembles have been slowly trending to the EPS, but they are just now getting into the ballpark regarding d10-15. So for now, I am going to watch the Euro operation(warm) for trends in the d8-10. Thank you for the animations as well. Much appreciated. At least we will have a record of the flip flopping by all three models. LOL.
  9. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, I think the EPS is likely correct and other models will have a similar and drastic flip. That said, should we at least consider the idea that the EPS is wrong. Man, I don't knowhow much time you have on your hands...but would be interesting to the the GEPS, GEFS, and EPS evolution on their 12z ensembles. Right now the EPS is either the trend setter(likely due to its superior MJO modeling) or it is an outlier. It is kind of fun to watch the heat retrograde across Canada. Going to get some great low tracks with no cold with that look. LOL.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Great post. I used to judge how good the winter was going to be by how early it snowed in a season - and Knoxville folks, I lived in Knoxville when I used that rule. Grew up(till I was ten) behind West Town mall for a while and then off Ebenezer. If it snowed in late December, I always felt good about my chances. LOL. And then I lived in Florida for two years................................................no amount of climatology could save me in central Florida.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Back to weather model watching for the 12z suite. 1. The ICON is a warm Miller A 2. GFS is now just a cutter. 3. Will be interesting to watch the Euro trend on that system.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Skimmed some of that. My initial reaction would be that we have to be careful comparing years during a +AMO to those found during a -AMO. And then my next reaction is that seasonal forecasting right now requires us to juggle too many plates at times. Everything is ok as long as one understood driver is at work. When one driver is dominant, those winters have great model verification. But really, I don't think one has to think too hard about this winter. The MJO and IO have been active along with a tight PV. The QBO was positive until just recently. One of those(the QBO) variables was a known quantity while the MJO, IO, and PV states were not known until winter was underway. So in hindsight, the reasons are fairly clear. I actually think many forecasts identified the correct variables that were drivers. It was identifying their subsequent values that was tricky. IMO, being a good seasonal forecaster requires one to identify the drivers AND then identify their values. I think what we need is to have a strong La Nina in order to remove the positive SSTs from the Pacific. That would waste a winter here, but would bring the Pacific basin back to a more normal base state. A volcanic eruption at the right latitude would also do the trick. Will be interested to see if the theories of solar min blocking lags verify during the next two winters. Lastly, I do think the term "weak El Nino" gets tossed around a bit to loosely my many, many folks. I am guilty of that as well. A weak positive is often still a neutral ENSO state. I think this winter will actually be classified as a La Nada. La Nada winters are pretty "meh" IMBY. That Pacific water off the coast of South America that is cool is sometimes underestimated. The misnomer (referring to neutral positives as weak El Ninos) can cause false conclusions. In other words, we can't refer to this winter(in the future) and say that weak El Ninos are no longer good when in fact it may not be a weak El Nino at all.
  13. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, do you have a link to isotherm's and PSU's discussion? If the pattern comes back from November, I will be giving John credit for that as he has done extensive research on that correlation dating back several seasons. Anyway, I think our forum is way ahead of that curve regarding November repeating itself later during winter. People on this forum have speculated for weeks that there is potential for a repeat of the October/November pattern evolution. That is rooted in John's work. Isotherm and Jeff have forgotten more than I will ever know. Their arguments(even during rare misses) are well constructed with sound reasoning. They often get both the outcome and reasoning correct. Gotta have both of those.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Great couple of posts, Holston. I will have to go read their discussion. I hadn't looked. I think the key is the MJO. It looked noticeably worse on the ECWMF today. The lack of convection in the western IO is bad, bad, bad. That is an area where phase 1 and 2 of the MJO(cold here) reside. That means that phase 6 might be about to win again and would explain the Euro's trip towards the warm phases. The CFS is on an island right now with a nice trajectory. Problem is...it lost that battle a few weeks ago. So, I have low confidence that the CFS scores a coup, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. The Euro has been taking all other models to school for about seven weeks regarding the MJO. Yeah, never hurts to have an Atlantic storm jar the PV. Big storms can shake up patterns for sure. When in a bad pattern, a big storm is never a bad thing. Problem is the pattern has been shaken up already and is being changed as we speak. As I noted earlier...the pattern at 500 is about to be much different than it has been for the past many weeks. It is just that the new pattern is only slightly better than the old, crappy pattern. Sort of like there are just a few ways to bake a really good cake...but there are many, many ways to make a bad cake. One can overcook it or under cook it or measure the ingredients poorly or try to take it out of the pan at the wrong time or not mix it well enough or the icing won't stick. Same result is a bad cake. There are many ways to have a warm EC. So, the new pattern gets the same result but with a much different pattern at 500. Long story short, we got our shake-up and the new pattern is only marginally better. I am really pulling against an SSW at this point. So, I roll with Holston on that sentiment. If we get one, it won't matter unless it happens about right now. Otherwise, spring may be miserable. Once we get an SSW, as a general rule it takes like two weeks to work its way down to the TPV and affect our latitude.
  15. Carvers Gap
    FWIW, the ICON at 0z had marginal temps but a near perfect track for the storm being discussed.
  16. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, about the only hope I have is that this pattern is a replay of the transition during October and early November. The Euro did not handle that well but the GEFS did. I sort of think it probably is not...but there are some similar elements to that transition. The MJO is notably worse this time around which is why I think we have to watch it for clues if we are going to see enough of a pattern for cold.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Yep. Systems are getting pushed under the developing HB block. But there is nothing to really force narrowing confluence. Important to recognize this pattern is not a big ridge in the Southeast. The AN heights are over Hudson Bay. That is normally a good setup for big EC snowstorms. The problem is that there is a ridge(new feature) east of Hawaii which is digging a Southwest low. The SER over the SE has been replaced by slightly BN heights but there is nothing in the Atlantic to block storms as they approach the East. Need a 50/50 low to act as a pseudo block if the NAO is going to stay positive. Probably the bigger problem is a strong PV which is preventing cold from rotating often into the pattern. There are some good things to like about the upcoming pattern as storms are being forced south. Problem is our cold source is iffy. Ensembles this AM look like a Niño pattern with those marginal temps and slightly BN heights rotating under that HB block. But yeah, the storm track is a mess. Any changes on the MJO?
  18. Carvers Gap
    It is an odd look for sure. Seems like we would either get a cutter or get GOM slp/wave.
  19. Carvers Gap
    It is not the same pattern, but it is still a lousy pattern which gets similar result here. The ridge in the north central Pacific will be gone, but to quote the MA forum, there is more than one pattern that can be bad for winter. Looks like the EPS is going to stick a trough in the Southwest and then leave unsettled weather under a ridge downstream where we live. The storm just under 200 on the Euro actually takes a good track with little cold available...we probably need to get used to that. Honestly, it is almost zonal in some ways when one looks at the 500 map and not the 500 anomaly map. That Southwest trough could be an error, but I doubt it this time. Synoptically, it looks right. Storm track looks to be suppressed by the Hudson Bay AN height anomaly which is also a new feature. It is a pattern that would unlikely produce snow, but is not without its chances as Jeff and John have noted. Overall, going to keep one eye over my shoulder at the storm inside of 200 and then HOPE that some transient cold shots can hook-up with the STJ. Of note, we don't want the BN heights over AK to set-up shop. If this turns out to be a non-winter(growing more likely by the day), I think two main attributes will have contributed, an active MJO/IO and a strong polar vortex. Pretty unusual pair, but there they are. With just over four workable weeks of winter left IMBY, going to have to hope early February has some cold.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Need the MJO and Pacific to cooperate.
  21. Carvers Gap
    What is crazy...both times for January and February the models flipped on literally the next run or right as it was published. Within hours of the forecast, modeling switched. I doubt the CPC was wishcasting. LOL. They had the same thoughts as most everyone who was seeing the modeling. I don't think you have folks on this sub-forum wishcasting. I certainly hope that was not implied by your last comment.
  22. Carvers Gap
    This is a fairly big change for d10-15, even for the GEFS. On a 5-day map, those are nearly 20F departures in the plains. Proceed at your own risk. Image on the left is 18z. Image on the right is 12z. We probably know how this story ends, but ensemble trends are worth noting.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS was much colder...by quite a bit.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Biggest problem I am seeing, and one can see it on the 18z GFS, is the cold is bottled up in northern Canada. Not sure what to think. I do suspect this jog over towards phase 6 is likely causing some of this. Just means that phase 6 is lit with convection. Phase 6 of the MJO will keep eastern NA free of cold as long as it fires. That is the change in modeling that has brought this about IMHO. I am pretty much punting January. That leaves me about three realistic weeks of tracking. That last week of February is mostly a spring week IMBY. Every once in a while we see winter then, but not lately. So when we hit early February, I will be able to see the end of winter on modeling. Going to need to see some changes very, very soon on modeling.
  25. Carvers Gap
    And that could be a model bias at play there. I am always suspicious of EPS troughs in the Southwest. I mean those actually happen, but I about halfway assume each time the model is wrong.
×
×
  • Create New...