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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Great post. I used to judge how good the winter was going to be by how early it snowed in a season - and Knoxville folks, I lived in Knoxville when I used that rule. Grew up(till I was ten) behind West Town mall for a while and then off Ebenezer. If it snowed in late December, I always felt good about my chances. LOL. And then I lived in Florida for two years................................................no amount of climatology could save me in central Florida.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Back to weather model watching for the 12z suite. 1. The ICON is a warm Miller A 2. GFS is now just a cutter. 3. Will be interesting to watch the Euro trend on that system.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Skimmed some of that. My initial reaction would be that we have to be careful comparing years during a +AMO to those found during a -AMO. And then my next reaction is that seasonal forecasting right now requires us to juggle too many plates at times. Everything is ok as long as one understood driver is at work. When one driver is dominant, those winters have great model verification. But really, I don't think one has to think too hard about this winter. The MJO and IO have been active along with a tight PV. The QBO was positive until just recently. One of those(the QBO) variables was a known quantity while the MJO, IO, and PV states were not known until winter was underway. So in hindsight, the reasons are fairly clear. I actually think many forecasts identified the correct variables that were drivers. It was identifying their subsequent values that was tricky. IMO, being a good seasonal forecaster requires one to identify the drivers AND then identify their values. I think what we need is to have a strong La Nina in order to remove the positive SSTs from the Pacific. That would waste a winter here, but would bring the Pacific basin back to a more normal base state. A volcanic eruption at the right latitude would also do the trick. Will be interested to see if the theories of solar min blocking lags verify during the next two winters. Lastly, I do think the term "weak El Nino" gets tossed around a bit to loosely my many, many folks. I am guilty of that as well. A weak positive is often still a neutral ENSO state. I think this winter will actually be classified as a La Nada. La Nada winters are pretty "meh" IMBY. That Pacific water off the coast of South America that is cool is sometimes underestimated. The misnomer (referring to neutral positives as weak El Ninos) can cause false conclusions. In other words, we can't refer to this winter(in the future) and say that weak El Ninos are no longer good when in fact it may not be a weak El Nino at all.
  4. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, do you have a link to isotherm's and PSU's discussion? If the pattern comes back from November, I will be giving John credit for that as he has done extensive research on that correlation dating back several seasons. Anyway, I think our forum is way ahead of that curve regarding November repeating itself later during winter. People on this forum have speculated for weeks that there is potential for a repeat of the October/November pattern evolution. That is rooted in John's work. Isotherm and Jeff have forgotten more than I will ever know. Their arguments(even during rare misses) are well constructed with sound reasoning. They often get both the outcome and reasoning correct. Gotta have both of those.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Great couple of posts, Holston. I will have to go read their discussion. I hadn't looked. I think the key is the MJO. It looked noticeably worse on the ECWMF today. The lack of convection in the western IO is bad, bad, bad. That is an area where phase 1 and 2 of the MJO(cold here) reside. That means that phase 6 might be about to win again and would explain the Euro's trip towards the warm phases. The CFS is on an island right now with a nice trajectory. Problem is...it lost that battle a few weeks ago. So, I have low confidence that the CFS scores a coup, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. The Euro has been taking all other models to school for about seven weeks regarding the MJO. Yeah, never hurts to have an Atlantic storm jar the PV. Big storms can shake up patterns for sure. When in a bad pattern, a big storm is never a bad thing. Problem is the pattern has been shaken up already and is being changed as we speak. As I noted earlier...the pattern at 500 is about to be much different than it has been for the past many weeks. It is just that the new pattern is only slightly better than the old, crappy pattern. Sort of like there are just a few ways to bake a really good cake...but there are many, many ways to make a bad cake. One can overcook it or under cook it or measure the ingredients poorly or try to take it out of the pan at the wrong time or not mix it well enough or the icing won't stick. Same result is a bad cake. There are many ways to have a warm EC. So, the new pattern gets the same result but with a much different pattern at 500. Long story short, we got our shake-up and the new pattern is only marginally better. I am really pulling against an SSW at this point. So, I roll with Holston on that sentiment. If we get one, it won't matter unless it happens about right now. Otherwise, spring may be miserable. Once we get an SSW, as a general rule it takes like two weeks to work its way down to the TPV and affect our latitude.
  6. Carvers Gap
    FWIW, the ICON at 0z had marginal temps but a near perfect track for the storm being discussed.
  7. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, about the only hope I have is that this pattern is a replay of the transition during October and early November. The Euro did not handle that well but the GEFS did. I sort of think it probably is not...but there are some similar elements to that transition. The MJO is notably worse this time around which is why I think we have to watch it for clues if we are going to see enough of a pattern for cold.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Yep. Systems are getting pushed under the developing HB block. But there is nothing to really force narrowing confluence. Important to recognize this pattern is not a big ridge in the Southeast. The AN heights are over Hudson Bay. That is normally a good setup for big EC snowstorms. The problem is that there is a ridge(new feature) east of Hawaii which is digging a Southwest low. The SER over the SE has been replaced by slightly BN heights but there is nothing in the Atlantic to block storms as they approach the East. Need a 50/50 low to act as a pseudo block if the NAO is going to stay positive. Probably the bigger problem is a strong PV which is preventing cold from rotating often into the pattern. There are some good things to like about the upcoming pattern as storms are being forced south. Problem is our cold source is iffy. Ensembles this AM look like a Niño pattern with those marginal temps and slightly BN heights rotating under that HB block. But yeah, the storm track is a mess. Any changes on the MJO?
  9. Carvers Gap
    It is an odd look for sure. Seems like we would either get a cutter or get GOM slp/wave.
  10. Carvers Gap
    It is not the same pattern, but it is still a lousy pattern which gets similar result here. The ridge in the north central Pacific will be gone, but to quote the MA forum, there is more than one pattern that can be bad for winter. Looks like the EPS is going to stick a trough in the Southwest and then leave unsettled weather under a ridge downstream where we live. The storm just under 200 on the Euro actually takes a good track with little cold available...we probably need to get used to that. Honestly, it is almost zonal in some ways when one looks at the 500 map and not the 500 anomaly map. That Southwest trough could be an error, but I doubt it this time. Synoptically, it looks right. Storm track looks to be suppressed by the Hudson Bay AN height anomaly which is also a new feature. It is a pattern that would unlikely produce snow, but is not without its chances as Jeff and John have noted. Overall, going to keep one eye over my shoulder at the storm inside of 200 and then HOPE that some transient cold shots can hook-up with the STJ. Of note, we don't want the BN heights over AK to set-up shop. If this turns out to be a non-winter(growing more likely by the day), I think two main attributes will have contributed, an active MJO/IO and a strong polar vortex. Pretty unusual pair, but there they are. With just over four workable weeks of winter left IMBY, going to have to hope early February has some cold.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Need the MJO and Pacific to cooperate.
  12. Carvers Gap
    What is crazy...both times for January and February the models flipped on literally the next run or right as it was published. Within hours of the forecast, modeling switched. I doubt the CPC was wishcasting. LOL. They had the same thoughts as most everyone who was seeing the modeling. I don't think you have folks on this sub-forum wishcasting. I certainly hope that was not implied by your last comment.
  13. Carvers Gap
    This is a fairly big change for d10-15, even for the GEFS. On a 5-day map, those are nearly 20F departures in the plains. Proceed at your own risk. Image on the left is 18z. Image on the right is 12z. We probably know how this story ends, but ensemble trends are worth noting.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS was much colder...by quite a bit.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Biggest problem I am seeing, and one can see it on the 18z GFS, is the cold is bottled up in northern Canada. Not sure what to think. I do suspect this jog over towards phase 6 is likely causing some of this. Just means that phase 6 is lit with convection. Phase 6 of the MJO will keep eastern NA free of cold as long as it fires. That is the change in modeling that has brought this about IMHO. I am pretty much punting January. That leaves me about three realistic weeks of tracking. That last week of February is mostly a spring week IMBY. Every once in a while we see winter then, but not lately. So when we hit early February, I will be able to see the end of winter on modeling. Going to need to see some changes very, very soon on modeling.
  16. Carvers Gap
    And that could be a model bias at play there. I am always suspicious of EPS troughs in the Southwest. I mean those actually happen, but I about halfway assume each time the model is wrong.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Good thing, Holston, that IOD region I think is maybe phase 1 and 2 of the MJO. That is what JB was talking about...1,2 and 6 are firing at the same time and it is creating a conflicting MJO signal. But you can see, it is not a true null where the MJO region is just dead. There are two regions firing simultaneously.
  18. Carvers Gap
    44 here in Kingsport and cloudy. After a week's worth of temps at near record levels, I was not ready for how cold it felt today! I guess it is all relative.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Just wondered in. LOL. Such a lovely place....You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Tellico, do you have a weather background? Man, you know your stuff.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Maybe we just need Powell to post prior to each model suite. Seems like the Euro got your message. With your post just prior to 12z tomorrow, could you mention heavy snows inland?
  22. Carvers Gap
    Surface tracks from Louisiana just have better results in NE TN. Coastal storms here drive up snow totals. And that is a different outcome for those 150 miles to my west. My area does not benefit from upslope, unless the upslope comes from the southeast on a coastal. JC gets upslope. My areas does not. The lack of a -NAO does not surprise me due to the AMO phase. Problem is, tough to prove anything until that -AMO pops again. Personally, I think the Pacific needs an ENSO phase to shake up the gradient a bit. Preferably, it would be a strong La Nina. Yeah, that would waste a winter but would cool the SSTs considerably and potential reset the Pacific by ridding it of amped flow. I suspect that is coming soon. If one looks at both -AMOs and -QBOS...those are really good indicators(not by themselves) of potential for strong blocking.
  23. Carvers Gap
    In E TN, not so much the Plateau or middle/west TN, we need blocking in the Atlantic. A lot of our snow comes from coastals. I think for that past 30 years, the pattern has been very dependent on the Pacific. The Pac drives the bus and it going to for a few more years. It is upstream as well. When it is bad, no winter. That coincides with AMO phase. When it is negative, we get plenty of Atlantic blocking. I was in my teens when the AMO flipped positive. But you could tell(without ever knowing that index) that winter changed drastically around 1988 and 89. That is when it flipped. I remember telling my parents that cold winters were over. They looked at my like I was crazy. Winters had been cold their entire lives. But I knew that something had changed, because the cold just wasn't there. In E TN, a -NAO is a big driver. If I remember correctly, someone said seven of the last eight winters have seen positive NAOs. Some of those winters have been decent, but when the Pacific is bad...non-winter are experienced like we are having so far. The -NAO increased the number of good winters because it could pick up the slack when the Pac was hostile. Right now, we have basically one ocean that an help us and not two. This winter so far is a prime example. Those surface lows in the GOM are far more common and much stronger during -AMOs. Would be interesting to get some data on the occurrence of Gulf lows since the AMO went positive. It makes sense, that Atlantic block is what forces those lows northeast. No AMO and that block is rarer and those perfect tracks rarer. So, I am not really one who buys the whole temp deal...I think the actual track is different because of the AMO cycle. Get that track back, and snow will be more common in E TN.
  24. Carvers Gap
    That definitely does not fit what I have read. Some of what I have read comes from isotherm's forecasts and from Joe D'Aleo. I do understand the four categories. I have read other mets on other subforums that have stated that a transitional QBO(falling) into negative results in blocking...the actual trajectory is what matters. If you have a link to share that debunks that, I would be glad to read it. I don't doubt the QBO is complex and has many unknowns. One of the things I have read is that it in combination with a La Nina it is a strong cold indicator in the East. However, once one adds in solar, enso, and trajectory as variables...not many analogs to begin with. I do know this, many of our great winters have negative QBOs. Not all, but many. I actually don't agree that the QBO falling in negative territory is a hindrance. It may very well be too weak at this point in relation to an MJO that has been on steroids during westerly and easterly QBO phases with the same result - a warm East coast winter. But I don't think this particular winter will prove or disprove that as the MJO with warm waters west of the dateline is going to be a problem no matter what the phase. If we do happen to see some blocking, I don't think that will be coincidental.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Yep, super close just prior to 200. Similar to what Powell just talked about ironically!
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