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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Something in the back of my mind makes me think that SSWs can be initiated with big spikes like that. And I could be wrong. Rambler...this is not meant for you, just my general musings. I was thinking today of all of the things that have to be right for us to get winter...MJO, QBO, ENSO, AO, PNA, etc. And then I though, sometimes it just gets cold when it wants to get cold. And sometimes it is warm in spite of good alignment of all of those. To me, I think we can add the AAM to that list. It may get warm and have nothing to do with that and it may have everything to do with that.
  2. Carvers Gap
    As I understand it, a strong AAM is associated with El Nino. When it is weaker, during La Nina, it is produces a trough in the West. I have seen the AAM readings really misused on Twitter. The strong AAM is likely playing a part in removing the western trough - not the other way around. I could be wrong. I am not expert on the topic, but some of the tweets give me some pause. No knock on BlueWave...haven't read his post. The 18z actually shows what I think the pattern will evolve to which is strong shots of cold air and storms with warm intermissions. That is classic El Nino stuff right there. That is what I think we don't have to worry about suppression for very long. In fact my worry is the opposite. The EPS actually shows a true El Nino pattern with very weak ridging underneath and marginal cold. That doesn't bother me. That can work. What concerns me is the massive shift. In other words, is that the only shift or is it in the process of shifting to something far less wintry such as a phase 6 look? When an ensemble breaks in continuity, usually means there are more changes coming or it reverts to the previous look...but rarely stays the same. Overall, definite concerns in the LR, but not enough to pull the plug on the variable pattern that should lean cold.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The only good thing I can find is what I posted a few posts back which is that the EMON basically ended the MJO in the COD and doesn't bring it back. What concerns me is the EPS run-to-run change at 500 looks like a trend towards phase 6. I am not entirely convinced any model has the MJO correct as it is forecast to have a lot subsidence in the MJO regions. Agree also, I don't mind the COD either....actually that is not a terrible solution as you point out. What concerns me is the trend towards phase 6. Hopefully that is just a hiccup or corrects to the COD. However, I see some similar trends on the GEFS. The CFS is much colder as it has an entirely different MJO progression after phase 7. I believe a variable pattern is upcoming, and I should not have broken from that thinking this AM. The EPS immediately made me pay for that line that I have in bold. So, an immediate retraction seems wise. I just get excited like the rest of us when I see all of those BN heights. On a positive note, looks like suppression problems could be short lived. LOL. But again, I think a long term variable pattern is probably likely, though nothing is a certainty after next week's cold shot. Looks like the 18z has tnweathernut's storm.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Can't have enough seven foot rebounding machines...especially on a a team that has struggled to rebound. Huge news - literally.
  5. Carvers Gap
    That last line is probably not going to age well. LOL and sorry. I should have known better. I am just going to own it now. Pretty substantial changes to the 12z EPS today and not for the good in the LR. The run-to-run trend in the d10-15 had trends that look like a textbook phase 6 MJO. Maybe we get our pattern back tomorrow and this was a hiccup, but I definitely do not like that 12z run. It was a major break from continuity. As is, we could probably steal a storm or two from that look, but if that is a trend...that is not good. Pattern shift is still a "go" but if that is a trend...the new pattern might not be what we think.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Awesome. I think we had thunder during Saturday's event. There were so many transformers blowing as the wind rolled through here, it was tough to distinguish between the two. Looked like plenty of convective fireworks in SW VA though. I would put the wind event for MBY as a top two event in the time I have lived here and maybe first. If we would have had leaves on the oaks....the trees would have been dropped. As it was, only the pines were affected. Their shallow root systems combined with rainfall and little protection from the dormant deciduous trees allowed them to take a beating. Some of those trees were 50-60 years old or even older.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The real danger is if we get a snowpack up in the mountains, the pattern breaks for even just a few days, and we get rain on that snowpack. Fortunately, Cherokee is where it needs to be to catch the rain from NE TN. If this switches to La Nina, were are going to need every drop. Kind of weird to say that during record rainfall, but Nina summers are scorchers. Not saying that is a given, but on the table as something that might even be a likelihood. As for the upcoming pattern. I still think we get pulses of cold air that come down, sometimes much below normal. I think we get less precip than we are getting now - pretty easy call. Looks like there may be a warm-up(relative to where it is about to go...cold compared to the present) sometime in early February and then cold to follow. The Weeklies tend to ease off the pattern around February 10th....I have my doubts about that. I suspect this pattern lasts roughly 6 weeks with typical warm spells intermixed. I think by the time this pattern is over, we will be ready for spring because the temps will have been cold. What I think will be interesting is if we get a -NAO right as the Pacific relaxes. I mean, this is the time of year it could do that. The newest QBO is neutral between 30-40mb. The MJO on the new LR MJO by the Euro takes the MJO into the COD and leaves it there - fine by me. At this point the Pacific will be the driver w the potential for the Atlantic to help later as we close out the season. Modeling a couple of days ago was very strong with blocking in eastern Canada. Let's see if it picks that up gain. There is potential that this pattern lasts into spring. At any rate, big pattern shake-up appears to be on schedule. I suspect we go BN on temps from January 20th - end of February. I will roll with AN precip w/ some periods where things do dry out.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that STJ is likely going to be active. Precip pattern probably favors E TN a bit more, but no way to be sure yet. Suppression is always a factor, but El Nino winters really fight that off some. If it was La Nina...big, big concern. Also important to realize the GEFS/GFS have been too suppressed all winter...and too cold. So, I bet this pattern modifies northward over time for all except the coldest days. The GEFS mean is actually pretty strong for E TN and has been for several runs. Even the putrid EPS has bumped up a bit. It would likely be an understatement to say that I like where this is going. Not trying to hype, but this look is showing up right when climatology favors bigger winter events. Fingers crossed! I will say this...if the pattern was perfect at 10 days out, I would say the actual pattern would likely be over the Ohio River once it verifies. Keep it down there and we'll just have to take our chances. At worst, I get to see stories of people in Tallahassee playing in the snow. LOL.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS is not warm. 500 pattern is 12z GEFS-esque. Let's fire-up the winter tracking bus and don't let Jeff sit next to the satellite!
  10. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Bullet point one should be forever placed into TN Valley subform lore.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS snow mean is impressive in addition to the cold. @BornAgain13 the SE forum has a snow map posted. Now, let's see where the Euro goes. Starting to get some cold looks inside of d10 now. Euro up next.
  12. Carvers Gap
    In regards to cold...the 12z CMC just said, "Hold my beer." @ 216 there are -30F anomalies as departures over NE TN and it is cold pretty much over the entire forum area on that run. Wow. Surface temps are in the low single digits or below zero here.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I have been to Knoxville twice since Christmas, and I am pretty sure you all broke record highs both time I was there. I just need to start packing my flip-flops, swimming trunks, and beach towel for my trips in the future.
  14. Carvers Gap
    That energy wave buried Wyoming and Montana last winter. Probably will do so again this week. What we probably want is that energy undercutting the EPO and getting split flow.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I think one of the things to watch for is where does confluence set up if we have split flow. In other words, if there is a phase where does that happen. The GFS has it over our area which is not terrible. Do I think it is right? Probably not. Another reason I don't trust the GEFS is that it was very stubborn to recognize that the western ridge had broken down. Now it is very stubborn with eastern cold as evidenced by another very cold run at 18z. Seems like the Euro/EPS continues the Plains storm track despite their colder looks. That would imply a "warm-up and rain" pattern. Thing is...if we maintain this active pattern with cold air, we should have some chances. I agree with John, roller coaster coming up.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I wonder if the change in modeling has more to do with split flow developing. That seems to be something that is becoming really apparent.
  17. Carvers Gap
    That is a great point. I have no idea. Nice share.
  18. Carvers Gap
    And may we all remember that there is a reason most of us don't do this for a living. LOL. I actually hope I am wrong and it gets really cold for a sustained amount of time. I will take variability but after this warm stretch...would still feel like a loss. Maybe this is a step down pattern cold and the EPS verifies. But man, I don't like seeing ensemble modeling like the EPS push things back like it has done today. Again, the pattern from the past few months I think is history next week. I just think there is a lot of uncertainty in what takes it place...The 12z Euro/EPS suite was really unremarkable. Let's hope that was a hiccup.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Another big question is where does the winter storm track set up? Would be nice for once to get the right amount of cold and have the battleground over the forum area.
  20. Carvers Gap
    And the CPC forecast looks like this. That is a BIG change from our current pattern. So, I think we have the pattern change part correct. I just think there is a lot of back-and-forth coming up that was not on modeling a few days ago.
  21. Carvers Gap
    I don't think the pattern change is a head fake. The pattern is likely about to be much different with those changes to the NA pattern beginning next weekend. I think the extreme to which modeling was going to take the pattern might be a head fake. That said, one of the d11+ analogs for today is from 1978. I think it is growing less likely that this pattern has sustained cold just based on 36 hour trends. I also don't give the GFS/GEFS much weight as it has just been egregious this winter on multiple levels. I still look at the model and enjoy its runs, but it is similar to watching pro wrestling. I could be wrong, but I think the cold on the GEFS is a mirage. It busted on the MJO a few weeks ago by trying to take us into the cold phases when in reality we hustled into high amplitude warm phases. The GEFS MJO is going to try to take us into 7/8 while the Euro is going to crash through 7 and loops back into the COD with a trajectory into the warm phases. The EPS smoked the GEFS last go around...I think it will again. So the real question now is does the MJO go into the COD and just flame out OR does it loop back into 4, 5, 6? Nobody knows that answer right now. We could go gangbusters into winter if the GEFS is right OR we could cycle in and out of the COD like the EPS. Both can still bring us winter chances...but they both produce really different weather maps in the LR. The EPS still has the shake-up beginning with the first cold push around the 18/19. Heck, it along with the other ensembles, is very cold. I am not seeing support for the ensemble from operational which should have it by now. I just like what it is doing at 500. The surface temp pattern has actually not changed as much during the last 24 hours. I just am not sure that the actual resulting pattern is going to be an eastern trough. I don't think it will be a western trough either like we have now. I think the West is about to warm quite a bit over the next few months. An early spring their would not shock me which is the opposite of last winter. I think we are going to seem some strong cold shots, but also some warm shots as well. Variability will be the word. We haven't had much variability during the last 6-7 weeks. It has been warm and rainy. But probably wouldn't hurt to pump the breaks a bit on a sustained cold pattern. End of the western ridge? Very likely. Sustained eastern trough? Less likely than it was two days ago. Last year, the trough never left the West. I think it highly likely that pattern is done minus cold building in the Rockies and heading East. If I was going to rank the probability(edit) our options I would begin with: 1. Variable Pattern w/ maybe an eastern trough 60% of the time through February. Nino climatology with a trough building underneath without extreme cold. 2. Eastern trough with very cold air through February. The one other thing in the back of my mind is how bad modeling is when very cold pattern enters the pattern. I also remember how badly the Euro missed in November. We are now about to enter another shoulder season and it could repeat that. As someone noted...what if the Euro is holding back energy and that is skewing the model? 2. Zonal. Bet that one surprised some folks. It is possible that the trough simply lifts out and we are flooded with Pacific air in the Lower 48 w short intrusions of cold air 4. Western trough(edit) dominates. So right now it is not that modeling is flipping back...It is just that the new pattern might not be all sunshine and rainbows. I do think our chances for snow are going to go up...I mean is there anywhere to go but up? LOL. I have been banging the warm drum for weeks on end. I think that time is done. I am just not prepared to bang the cold drum. There are still PLENTY of things in our favor...I just don't like seeing promising patterns being delayed. As Powell noted, we have been there, done that, and have the T-shirt to show for it.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Very true about the GEFS if it verifies...will be cold. And then I am reminded that it has been too cold for pretty much every event. That model fools me often. I do think it is safe to say that the weather pattern is being pushed back now in that the trough cannot hold until very late in several model runs. I am not into sugar coating things, and will try not to now. Originally, it looked like the trough on the 17th would do it on the Euro suite. Then, it would be the trough after that swing by and retrograde into the pattern. Looks to me like a back-and-forth type pattern with some chances embedded which is still better than the one we have this week in terms of wintry weather. The northern Rockies are now being pounded with snowstorm after snowstorm which is similar to last winter, but earlier. The 12z EPS is a significant step back not in the overall outcome but the timing of the event. We may well see sustained winter, but beware when the EPS begins to push things back. IF(big IF) this pattern verifies as a flip to winter, it now appears the way to do this is via a retrograding pattern. I still do think we see that trough hold in the East, but it is a far less likely outcome than it was a few days ago.
  23. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS remains very, very cold with the onset of the pattern at 156
  24. Carvers Gap
    It is all about the pattern right now. With the switch upcoming, modeling is going to be all over the place. RMM1 MJO today looks to go higher into phase 7 which might mean it makes it into 8. I always contend to beware of modeling that locks features into place on ensembles. Within that pattern there will be variation. Basically an ensemble is depicting where the features will be most of the time. Still looks like a trough will be in the East. Still looks like waves of cold. Still plenty of energy in the pattern. If one wanted to go fishing for trouble, maybe we can say modeling is pushing back the actually full blown trough. But...the Euro operational actually has it and has had for a few days. I think we are just now getting some blurry looks at what the pattern could be. The QBO looks to be right on schedule. The question will be how strongly it can go negative before winter is over. Good thing is that it is still dropping as of its December reading. If there is anything we learned (or were reminded of...) from this first half of winter it is how hard it is to "get the pattern back" once the pattern in Alaska goes extreme.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Wow! Lots of people without power. Not epic proportions, but it was almost instantaneous. The wind hit and it went down immediately. Kudos to MRX for advertising this in advance. I will try to get some pics up tomorrow. We have house with a tree that landed on it, and some trees on the golf course that have gone down.
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