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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro: Trough still goes in the East. Has energy riding the Arctic front like the GFS. Might be a 3-6 hours slower, but with a stronger trough that digs more(that is why it is slower). What it is doing over Alaska looks new and might even be a random hiccup. The Euro does weird stuff sometimes that turns out to be true. So, I have learned over time not to discount oddities. However, unless it shows me something on subsequent runs...going to file that as a hiccup. And before folks think...oh no, here we go again. The hiccup is not really a problem by 10. That is a super, super cold look. Virtually all of NA is in the trough, and it really doesn't roll the western ridge forward like 0z. So, good run...but wonky as all get out.
  2. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro is much different(from its previous run) for the third straight run. This time it has BN heights in AK and has dampened the eastern Pacific trough. Not really a break in continuity, but more like very little continuity. Trough is still there, but the AK BN heights are going to create problems. Can't find another model doing that right now, even its previous run. Model mayhem continues.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The CMC at 12z is a great example of how the angle of that front on the leading edge of the trough makes a big difference. It doesn't dig quite as much and everything slides OTS. Ironically, we probably need a little of the Euro "digging into the Southwest" mojo if we want to see an overrunning event.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Looks an awful lot like what led to the November pattern....this entire step-down the past few weeks feels like the October(January style) that led to November. The extreme stuff broke shortly after mid month, then a cool down, warmed up, then another cool down, etc. Also, the changing wave lengths likely won't hurt either. We will see where it heads, but the similarities are interesting.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, it is cold up there. Will be interesting to see if that verifies. The 500 pattern as @tnweathernut mentions would support that type of cold. However, we had that forecast I think(at LR) last week and Canada ended up with +30 to +40 departures from normal. LOL. The good thing about this run is the actual initial front is inside of d10. Will come into focus here over the next 3-4 days.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I think the 12z GFS at least shows why we have been watching this timeframe for seemingly weeks. Get cold air into the pattern with an STJ and the 12z GFS is a potential option. There was an additional wave which I think makes four along that front which hugs the coast. Long way out there, but something to track for now.
  7. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS still on time with a strong cold front and ensuing trough around Feb 5th. Something to watch, as noted in the previous thread, is whether energy will make a run along the incoming front. In this case there were 3 waves of precip long the front. First was rain and the last was snow as the Arctic front passes. We have scored on those during the past decade, usually 2-4" type snow events. Obviously at this range, a lot can and will change. Things to monitor will be whether the cold actually modifies as the event nears or will it maintain that strong frontal passage. Another thing to watch will be the angle of the front. If it sort of gets a positive lean to it, that raised the likelihood of something riding the front, especially if the tail is slow to move along in Texas. In other words, we want it to drape across the SE as a frontal boundary. Will be interesting to see where the rest of the run leads. As for this weekend's look, still not sure I buy the suppressed look but certainly looks that way as of right now. The energy that digs in behind it would likely induce snow shower activity.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for the new thread, @John1122. Looks like this is pinned to the top, so I will place afternoon ensemble discussion here.
  9. Carvers Gap
    One can get a pretty good idea of the places most at risk for flooding with this graphic. This is a 30-day total precip map for the forum region.
  10. Carvers Gap
    River systems controlled by dams should likely be OK initially as many of the lakes are already at low pool and can handle the influx. That said, probably the bigger concern would be urban streams and rivers not controlled by dams. We haven't had much flooding up here(NE TN) yet. The ground is fairly saturated, so thunderstorms training over one area would be a big concern. Fortunately, only the tops of the eastern mountains have snow and not a lot. If there was 12-18" of snowpack, we would be in serious trouble on this side of the valley. You all in the mid-state seem to have had more rains just based on observations in this forum. The far eastern valley has a little wiggle room but not much.
  11. Carvers Gap
    @John1122 @tnweathernut Seems like we are missing some big storms in there, particularly the JC snow during the lat 90s. I do realize that these are for the airport stations. But have to think the big JC storm needs a mention. Does this look correct to you all? Also, seems like the Feb '96 storm is missing? https://www.weather.gov/mrx/snow
  12. Carvers Gap
    I lived on Papermill at the time. Definitely true that they got much less than surrounding areas. Seems like we got 4-6" there with lots of ice. I drove home to Kingsport that weekend and was shocked at how much snow other areas had received. Snow from two storms was now piled in parking lots. Great write-up John...and that is the data that was missing from MRX I think. Is it back now or did you have to use media reports?
  13. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think the western and middle Pacific are pretty much going to be AN SSTs for DJF. I figured the eastern regions might warm a bit. Kind of a weird set-up and why an analog package may get beat-up pretty good this winter as many(including you an I) have noted. Hey, the SOI is tanking...not sure what that is going to unleash.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Looks like 1/2 El Nino and 1/2 La Nina....looks much cooler than I thought it would look. What are the trends on that, Jax?
  15. Carvers Gap
    LOL. That is hilarious.
  16. Carvers Gap
    We have some posters in that area...hopefully they will post a report.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, tough to get a good analog right now. Poor gradients SST(referencing Typhoon Tip) in the Pacific, a raging IOD, Nina sig in the eastern Pac, warm northern Pac...as Jeff noted in the pattern thread, going to be a headache forecasting this winter. I believe Jeff's analog was a root canal - paraphrased a bit on my part. The problem with finding an analog is there are not enough to build confidence with. Throw in record low solar, that odd looking ENSO setup, and a falling QBO...the pool of analogs gets pretty thin. As far as western cold...I tend to think that streak has about run its course. At some point they are going to have a warm winter or two. That said, we may very well be in a cycle where the West gets cold on average for several years. The 90s had many low water years out there. When they had the record drought several years ago, they thought they were locked into that long term. Now, they are getting plenty of rain, snow and cold in the same areas that were frying in the heat. But at some point, the extreme will give way to near average or even below. Sooooo....this winter seems like a real crap shoot. Might very well be that the pattern stays fairly progressive. Seems like recent winters have just been either/or...meaning you either have a big, cold winter or a torch. Might be we get both of each this winter.
  18. Carvers Gap
    That cold next to South America has SER written all over it. Worst case could be a torch...best case an inland storm track.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I put my garlic and shallots into one of my raised beds yesterday. Figured the upcoming seasonal to AN(but not extreme) wx will get them off to a good start before the first inevitable freeze hits at some point during the next few weeks. My garlic is definitely a testament to @Stovepipe's sharing about his garlic harvest a few years back. This is my second year growing. I had never attempted it prior to reading his post. Shallots are a new venture.(probably tried some during the wrong time of year several years ago) Some folks call them multiplier or potato onions, because one bulb will produce many over the winter and early spring. I am still shocked that my "cool weather" crops have done so well given the record temps of the last few weeks. The only thing that just came up and was like, "Nope..." was spinach. Everything else has done very well considering the temps and drought. I think it is due to an odd, but useful setup in my garden in relation to sun angle. During the summer, the angle of the sun provides direct sunlight all summer. However, during the fall, it drops just enough into the southwest that the tops of some tall trees shade the garden in the afternoon. Anyway, if you all garden...this is perfect time to plant garlic. Just let it sit all winter, grow during the spring, and harvest as the tops brown and fall over next summer. Filaree Farms has a great site for pretty much all root crops, but especially for garlic. They have a growing guide as well.
  20. Carvers Gap
    ....but the current heat ridge gets the W!!! LOL.
  21. Carvers Gap
    You should be good to go. I am kicking myself for not putting out a late season crop of beans. They would be loving this weather. My cool weather crops are doing OK despite the record heat. Maybe the days getting shorter and longer nights is giving them just enough of a break.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I agree. I thought the Nino look was going to diminish more than it has based on last month's trajectory and outlook, but the recent positive look might actually hold through winter. Definitely has cooled off in the eastern ENSO regions, but still likely to produce a weak Nino signal, maybe a Modoki. The SOI seems to agree the Nino effects are still there, because it is really tanking. Might be one of these winters where the weak El Nino signal gradually fades...
  23. Carvers Gap
    Thanks. Any thoughts after looking at that? Looks like a weak signal for below normal precip. Maybe it is signaling a strong +PNA pattern? Looks like it favors a split flow pattern with California and the southwest getting AN precip. @raindancewx, that would be a big bonus for you all. Will be interesting to see if La Nina eventually develops next spring.
  24. Carvers Gap
    @jaxjagman You are on your game this week, man. Another good find. Yeah, the JAMSTEC and the Euro Weeklies/Seasonal were just terrible. I hesitate to mention the CFSv2 because it puts out about four different solutions per day. A broken clock is right twice a day regarding the CFSv2. What I like about that run is that it might be closer to the ENSO set-up than the CANSIPS...oddly they both give similar surface maps. The SSTs for the JAMSTEC look more accurate globally as well. Does make me wonder if the JAMSTEC has a cold bias over NA after its solutions last winter. I also think that modeling had a really difficult time "catching up" last winter and was dealing with feedback issues. One looks at the SOI last winter, and a bust was on the table then. Thanks for the share...at least that looks more reasonable than the CANSIPS given the current Pacific basin warmth. Jax, do they release a precip anomaly map with that season package? If so, how did it look for our area.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Cover crop consisting of rye, winter wrye, winter peas, crimson clover, and vetch are growing like they are on steroids. Probably will turn that under in December or very early spring. Mustard greens are up. That stuff has some pop(spicy). I am also trying some Pak Choi this fall. It is purple and green. I am a big fan of William Woys Weaver who is known as someone trying to preserve heirlooms with great taste. My fall lettuce is from his collection at Baker's Heirloom seeds. Hopefully the cool weather stuff doesn't fry this week in the heat. When all of that is harvested later during the fall, I will plant those rows with winter wheat. Trying to get the soil ready for next spring as it has been fallow for twelve months.
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