Carvers Gap

LOL. Bullet point one should be forever placed into TN Valley subform lore.

The 12z GEFS snow mean is impressive in addition to the cold. @BornAgain13 the SE forum has a snow map posted. Now, let's see where the Euro goes. Starting to get some cold looks inside of d10 now. Euro up next.

In regards to cold...the 12z CMC just said, "Hold my beer." @ 216 there are -30F anomalies as departures over NE TN and it is cold pretty much over the entire forum area on that run. Wow. Surface temps are in the low single digits or below zero here.

I have been to Knoxville twice since Christmas, and I am pretty sure you all broke record highs both time I was there. I just need to start packing my flip-flops, swimming trunks, and beach towel for my trips in the future.

That energy wave buried Wyoming and Montana last winter. Probably will do so again this week. What we probably want is that energy undercutting the EPO and getting split flow.

I think one of the things to watch for is where does confluence set up if we have split flow. In other words, if there is a phase where does that happen. The GFS has it over our area which is not terrible. Do I think it is right? Probably not. Another reason I don't trust the GEFS is that it was very stubborn to recognize that the western ridge had broken down. Now it is very stubborn with eastern cold as evidenced by another very cold run at 18z. Seems like the Euro/EPS continues the Plains storm track despite their colder looks. That would imply a "warm-up and rain" pattern. Thing is...if we maintain this active pattern with cold air, we should have some chances. I agree with John, roller coaster coming up.

I wonder if the change in modeling has more to do with split flow developing. That seems to be something that is becoming really apparent.

That is a great point. I have no idea. Nice share.

And may we all remember that there is a reason most of us don't do this for a living. LOL. I actually hope I am wrong and it gets really cold for a sustained amount of time. I will take variability but after this warm stretch...would still feel like a loss. Maybe this is a step down pattern cold and the EPS verifies. But man, I don't like seeing ensemble modeling like the EPS push things back like it has done today. Again, the pattern from the past few months I think is history next week. I just think there is a lot of uncertainty in what takes it place...The 12z Euro/EPS suite was really unremarkable. Let's hope that was a hiccup.

Another big question is where does the winter storm track set up? Would be nice for once to get the right amount of cold and have the battleground over the forum area.

And the CPC forecast looks like this. That is a BIG change from our current pattern. So, I think we have the pattern change part correct. I just think there is a lot of back-and-forth coming up that was not on modeling a few days ago.

I don't think the pattern change is a head fake. The pattern is likely about to be much different with those changes to the NA pattern beginning next weekend. I think the extreme to which modeling was going to take the pattern might be a head fake. That said, one of the d11+ analogs for today is from 1978. I think it is growing less likely that this pattern has sustained cold just based on 36 hour trends. I also don't give the GFS/GEFS much weight as it has just been egregious this winter on multiple levels. I still look at the model and enjoy its runs, but it is similar to watching pro wrestling. I could be wrong, but I think the cold on the GEFS is a mirage. It busted on the MJO a few weeks ago by trying to take us into the cold phases when in reality we hustled into high amplitude warm phases. The GEFS MJO is going to try to take us into 7/8 while the Euro is going to crash through 7 and loops back into the COD with a trajectory into the warm phases. The EPS smoked the GEFS last go around...I think it will again. So the real question now is does the MJO go into the COD and just flame out OR does it loop back into 4, 5, 6? Nobody knows that answer right now. We could go gangbusters into winter if the GEFS is right OR we could cycle in and out of the COD like the EPS. Both can still bring us winter chances...but they both produce really different weather maps in the LR. The EPS still has the shake-up beginning with the first cold push around the 18/19. Heck, it along with the other ensembles, is very cold. I am not seeing support for the ensemble from operational which should have it by now. I just like what it is doing at 500. The surface temp pattern has actually not changed as much during the last 24 hours. I just am not sure that the actual resulting pattern is going to be an eastern trough. I don't think it will be a western trough either like we have now. I think the West is about to warm quite a bit over the next few months. An early spring their would not shock me which is the opposite of last winter. I think we are going to seem some strong cold shots, but also some warm shots as well. Variability will be the word. We haven't had much variability during the last 6-7 weeks. It has been warm and rainy. But probably wouldn't hurt to pump the breaks a bit on a sustained cold pattern. End of the western ridge? Very likely. Sustained eastern trough? Less likely than it was two days ago. Last year, the trough never left the West. I think it highly likely that pattern is done minus cold building in the Rockies and heading East. If I was going to rank the probability(edit) our options I would begin with: 1. Variable Pattern w/ maybe an eastern trough 60% of the time through February. Nino climatology with a trough building underneath without extreme cold. 2. Eastern trough with very cold air through February. The one other thing in the back of my mind is how bad modeling is when very cold pattern enters the pattern. I also remember how badly the Euro missed in November. We are now about to enter another shoulder season and it could repeat that. As someone noted...what if the Euro is holding back energy and that is skewing the model? 2. Zonal. Bet that one surprised some folks. It is possible that the trough simply lifts out and we are flooded with Pacific air in the Lower 48 w short intrusions of cold air 4. Western trough(edit) dominates. So right now it is not that modeling is flipping back...It is just that the new pattern might not be all sunshine and rainbows. I do think our chances for snow are going to go up...I mean is there anywhere to go but up? LOL. I have been banging the warm drum for weeks on end. I think that time is done. I am just not prepared to bang the cold drum. There are still PLENTY of things in our favor...I just don't like seeing promising patterns being delayed. As Powell noted, we have been there, done that, and have the T-shirt to show for it.

Very true about the GEFS if it verifies...will be cold. And then I am reminded that it has been too cold for pretty much every event. That model fools me often. I do think it is safe to say that the weather pattern is being pushed back now in that the trough cannot hold until very late in several model runs. I am not into sugar coating things, and will try not to now. Originally, it looked like the trough on the 17th would do it on the Euro suite. Then, it would be the trough after that swing by and retrograde into the pattern. Looks to me like a back-and-forth type pattern with some chances embedded which is still better than the one we have this week in terms of wintry weather. The northern Rockies are now being pounded with snowstorm after snowstorm which is similar to last winter, but earlier. The 12z EPS is a significant step back not in the overall outcome but the timing of the event. We may well see sustained winter, but beware when the EPS begins to push things back. IF(big IF) this pattern verifies as a flip to winter, it now appears the way to do this is via a retrograding pattern. I still do think we see that trough hold in the East, but it is a far less likely outcome than it was a few days ago.

12z GEFS remains very, very cold with the onset of the pattern at 156

It is all about the pattern right now. With the switch upcoming, modeling is going to be all over the place. RMM1 MJO today looks to go higher into phase 7 which might mean it makes it into 8. I always contend to beware of modeling that locks features into place on ensembles. Within that pattern there will be variation. Basically an ensemble is depicting where the features will be most of the time. Still looks like a trough will be in the East. Still looks like waves of cold. Still plenty of energy in the pattern. If one wanted to go fishing for trouble, maybe we can say modeling is pushing back the actually full blown trough. But...the Euro operational actually has it and has had for a few days. I think we are just now getting some blurry looks at what the pattern could be. The QBO looks to be right on schedule. The question will be how strongly it can go negative before winter is over. Good thing is that it is still dropping as of its December reading. If there is anything we learned (or were reminded of...) from this first half of winter it is how hard it is to "get the pattern back" once the pattern in Alaska goes extreme.

Wow! Lots of people without power. Not epic proportions, but it was almost instantaneous. The wind hit and it went down immediately. Kudos to MRX for advertising this in advance. I will try to get some pics up tomorrow. We have house with a tree that landed on it, and some trees on the golf course that have gone down.

What is weird is the footage I have has the wind howling behind the tree but the tree barely moving. That tree was downwind of some old stuff that sheltered it. The winds were cutting between two houses and blowing behind it. Pretty wild to look at.

Going to head out and see if the power trucks are working our neighborhood.

Lots of trees down in my neighborhood. Power is out reportedly to 8,000 in this area including mine. I suspect we clocked in over 95-100mph. Started filming the event and had to run in the house and get everyone downstairs when it became apparent this was not your average severe line. House across the way has a tree on it. Heard there were multiple accidents on the interstate. Total mess in my area.

We are about to the point that I am going to be pulled between sleeping and staying up to see what we might be tracking on 0z models.

Pretty much as cold as ensembles can get. Remember ensembles will have warm members included. As we get closer and it is more obvious that potential warmth is off the table, the warm ensemble members will slowly be phased out and the mean gets even colder. Some of these ensemble model runs have it 10-15+F below normal outside of d10. Now, if those have warm ensemble members included...they could verify colder. If we get snow on the ground in this pattern here and in the Midwest, below zero is a possibility. The pattern being modeled could set record lows, but that is getting head of myself big time. Right now, just wanting to make sure we have the pattern correct. I like where it is headed but obviously no guarantees. Last winter will leave me jaded for some time... How much wind are you all getting? I have to drive in this mess today. Should be loads of fun! LOL. Worthy cause though. Wild, wild few weeks of weather coming up I think. Amazing how many good weather patterns were preceded by severe.

And the pattern will highly likely have cold descending into the Plains or front range. We don’t want the cold coming straight off the Lakes as the trough would likely be too far to the East with that pattern. The catch with cold coming from our northwest is that warmups will likely happen in between fronts. The great thing with the blocks up top is that cutters could eventually be blocked. Bad thing to quote either PSU or Chill...blocking will make for fewer chances as the pattern slows but increase the chance for big storms. Though sometimes blocking can lead to higher frequency and strength. Biggest thing is confluence would be over this area.

The 0z Euro operational has the trough. Good sign as that is its second run showing that. The GFS will struggle right now. It will generally give a heads up on a change at LR, but it is going to bounce around wildly right now as is other operational stuff. Think of the stuff they are juggling or about to juggle...SOI is going to crash once that cyclone leaves that area. MJO is still evolving. QBO is dropping. Blocking is showing up. Changing wavelengths as we near spring. Big pattern flip being modeled. Potential PV split. Going to be a mess for several days. The key right now is to get the pattern right...and then drill down from there. Way to far out there to nail specifics. Again, roll with ensembles right now. The EPS has been steady. The GEFS seems to get colder with each run.

Ensembles will lead the way right now. They are stone cold. Bout as cold as one can get them at this range. SER is nowhere to be be seen after the 20th. Pretty incredible cold being modeled on the ensembles. The operationals are going to be all over the place. My general rule is that the colder the air on the way, the more they(operationals) jump around. I am probably more encouraged this AM that I have been all week. Considering the warmth this week followed by the cold upcoming, it is conceivable that we could see 50-60 degree changes in high temps over the next two weeks. Depending on the extremes of warm and cold...could be even bigger. The snow means looks solid for this range.

Good overall model agreement overnight regarding the pattern change. Ya'll stay safe in the storms today.