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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    This is the Euro MJO from today. Note how it is now trending into phase 5 and potential looping back into 6 - and I don't think it is done trending. It had at one point flirted with this solution and dropped back into the COD. I am actually not surprised by this look and won't be surprised if it indeed loops back into 6 and then into the cold phases. There is an impulse going into the warmer MJO phases about the time shown. I suspect MJO region 6 will not actually stay on a prolonged convection cycle this time. But who knows...just a hunch. My thinking is this current cycle will cool the upper levels of the ocean sea surface and give less fuel to the next wave. Looks like we only spend 5 days in 6 this current time as the Nino will fight it. I also think the MJO later in the season may actually favor cooler phases. The CFS at one time was forecast to make the tour into the cold phases - no more. As noted earlier, American modeling is not handling the MJO well this winter. The short tenure in phase 7 also aptly matches the potential storm this weekend and the backing-off of the cold in the mid range. What is interesting is that the EPS has been tipping its hand on the MJO. IMHO, the EPS is about a day or two ahead of the Euro graph at CPC. It had the phase 6 return late last week. So, might not hurt to match the EPS 500 pattern during d10-15 with what one thinks the MJO will be. Probably will get a good hint at where this is MJO graph is heading. Usually it is the other way around...this graph will tip the next day's modeling.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I think this weekend's storm has been there for a bit. @tnweathernut has been talking about it for a while. I think NE TN and SW VA will have to fight for the accumulations on this one with the actual storm w/ normal upslope areas cleaning up on northwesterly flow. It is an outside shot, but as the CMC showed, not without possibility. The warm-up is still there and not really muted. The thing that modeling seems to be seeing is a suppressed storm track due to the anomalous area of AN heights over the Hudson Bay. That area over the HB is often associated with big storms in the East. Long range ensembles have been breaking down that area at around d12. After that plenty of uncertainty. Does it lift out and form a -NAO? Does the trough in Alaska slide into the SE or the Plains(and then spread out)? It would not shock me if November repeated itself and it would not shock me if we headed straight to spring. I meant to check out the other models regarding MJO. Will check back in a sec.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Here is the CMC for this weekend and the upslope event after....please note this is on the high end of things.
  4. Carvers Gap
    10 day run of the CMC had 4-6" over TRI and similar amounts on the Plateau w/ 2-3" amounts north of I40 in the valleys.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Might actually see some wrap-around snow showers in the valleys north of I-40.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Nice upslope event for areas above 2500' as well with higher elevations seeing anywhere from 2-6." Not bad considering this is right smack in the middle of the warm-up.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Super close for NE TN and SW VA on the 12z GFS between 108 and 114. Temps crash as a developing slp to our southeast swings inland inside of Hatteras. This is not a miller A at this point but has energy transfer that switches from a low to our west to the coast. Still an outside shot, but that look can work for areas NE of I-26 and into SW VA. We want that low to our SE to continue trend stronger and a bit earlier.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Ober Gatlinburg webcams have plenty of snow. http://gatlinburg.gsmvro.com/ober-gatlinburg-webcams/
  9. Carvers Gap
    Spitting flakes here now. Thunder in the mountains means snow within ten days...rides again.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Take some pics.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Awesome. TRI is showing yet another way a rain shadow can develop here. LOL. Not much here at the moment. Looks like some decent returns to my SE. Still, the "thunder in the mountains and snow within ten days" rule is doing well yet again.
  12. Carvers Gap
    0z Euro still has a transfer of energy on its run. Its low is slightly closer to the Apps. The GEFS snow mean for the next 16 days is hefty for most of E TN. In SW VA it is over 6" of snow. NE TN is 4-6" of snow, but most areas closer to 6". The EPS has 2-4" of snow over NE TN. Overall, decent trends again over night in the medium and LR. The storm the weekend still needs to be watched. The Euro has been fairly adamant that a lee side low is going to form to our ESE. The further south that forms, but better shot folks in NE TN have. I realize this winter has been lousy since early December, but that is a set-up that we have scored on before at TRI. LR, still marginal temps with lots of energy rotating underneath a HB high. Very good example how we can have chances with marginal temps. Cold from AK discharges at the end of the lates GEFS and EPS runs. Where it goes is anyone's guess. Verbatim, looks like it would head in the front range in MT and spread out as the HB high rolls out. The RMM1 MJO ducks into five for three days and abruptly heads back into the COD. Let's see where the Euro goes when it updates. It is about 1-2 days ahead of the GEFS trends. My guess is the MJO just never really dies...going to have to have the cold overpower the signal if we are to get anything decent or hit a big storm or two. Definitely potential for a big hitter w that HB anomaly in place. Suppressed storm pattern at times.
  13. Carvers Gap
    We need tomorrow to continue the good trends. The great thing is that we aren't just looking at the d10+ right now. There is a storm inside of a week now that we are loosely tracking. Wouldn't be the first time that we have lost a pattern one to find it again. I mean, I think we are going to get a good scouring in NA after this cold shot. I just wonder if maybe we sneak back into a good pattern a little sooner than it looked yesterday. But still...that MJO either needs curl back through 5/6 quickly or it needs to go COD. We can't have it pause in the warm phases. So that look keeps me fairly tempered. And again, that is likely not a true "null." And for those that say, "Here we go again..." Maybe. That is what makes it fun. We get our money's worth in this forum. LOL. Anyway, great season to the Titans. Good luck to the Chiefs. I am an old school Steelers fan. Bradshaw, Mean Joe, Stallworth, Ham, Franco Harris, Swann, and Jack Lambert. I was fortunate to grow up watching some truly great superstars across all sports. Bird, Magic, Pete Rose, 1980 Miracle on Ice, Tony White, Steel Curtain, Reggie White, Will Gault, Anthony Hancock, and so on. Those guys were my heroes growing up. I think kids today had some good ones playing in that game today in Mahomes and Henry. Was also nice to see two teams battling it out in the cold in KC. That is how football should be played. And hey, I still have my weather radio from when I was a kid. Used to listen each evening to the updates and each morning. I knew exactly when the new forecast came out.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that is impressive. @John1122, we talked about this yesterday. Think we actually have a chance to pull that off(cutter to SE slp)?
  15. Carvers Gap
    Noticed a pretty nice improvement on the 18z GEFS snow mean w/ several big hitters. I was somewhat surprised to see both the GEFS walk back its d10-15 forecast almost completely by 18z. The 12z GEPS supports that. The CFSv2 will have none of it. The 12z EPS is basically there(GEFS look) with a slight correction of its Southwest bias. And the Euro operational offers some support at the end of its run. With modeling moving around so much, tells me the final outcome is still fairly fluid regarding the pattern. Again, this has the feel of the October step-down. I just can't say we get to that really cold November look. Thankfully, we at least have some outside shot stuff to track. And, it is actually cold outside. So that verified, but just not in duration. We have windchills in the teens. @BlunderStorm has some wicked cold windchills in Southwest Virginia it appears. Have to admit that the cold hurts after having those temps in the 70s! Now, go back and look at the October thread and you will find similar comments. LOL. Would be awesome if the 54-55 analog actually scores again. It may be close by the time winter closes.
  16. Carvers Gap
    My guess for the first piece of energy next weekend...milller B hybrid with some energy taking the low road. Energy probably jumps from the low west of the Apps to the Piedmont. If the slp forms far enough south, NE TN could see an outside shot. Second system...Euro control basically tucked a little slip in the NE right behind the first storm. It forced the track south of the second system south, and a big storm resulted. All of it is a bit of a long shot, but it is all we have for now. Welcome to Nino winters where temps and patterns are marginal. Great day of football. Good luck!
  17. Carvers Gap
    Regarding the d10+ pattern....edit...my guess is that ensembles are stuck between MJO phases 1/2 and 5/6. So, likely is just two different solutions within the same depiction. Right now, the only model I halfway trust is the Euro operational. So, almost better to extrapolate from it. It "almost" is something good from a pattern perspective at the end. But extrapolating d10+ from modeling is likely unwise, at least on a message forum. Looks like modeling is trying to cook-up one or two storms beginning next weekend.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Just speaking of the pattern. I don't think the ECMWF knows if it is going into phase 5. If it doesn't...we are in business. If it does, warm. Personally, looks to me like the EPS is holding energy into the southwest and it fouled that run. Look at the 12z GEFS and GEPS and it is almost the same set-up but without the southwest bias.
  19. Carvers Gap
    EPS control has a big storm right after d10.
  20. Carvers Gap
    For folks in NE TN, going to have to watch next weekend's storm if the Euro is correct. That has been a workable setup during the past decade. Variations of that setup are on each global ensemble at 12z. Bit of a long shot, but we have nothing else...and we know that still has room to trend. On the CMC, many areas see light snowfall. Also, if one loops the 500 map on the Euro operational. Sure looks like those heights are lifting out of Alaska with an EPO ridge sliding in underneath. Yeah, it is a 10 day map...so there is that.
  21. Carvers Gap
    See what you all think about the LR 12z GEFS after d10+. I can't tell. Pretty rare to see that look. So guessing it has one foot in one camp of "thought" and one foot in another. The GEPS looks really good. For today, I am going to assume the GEFS is heading there...some sarcasm intended. As for the MJO @Holston_River_Rambler, looks like it is going to abruptly reverse out of the bad phases once it enters. What I don't like is to see it slowly creeping in there for a few days. Next thing you know, it will be circling back through. LOL!
  22. Carvers Gap
    The 0z Euro has an upslope event within reasonable range. The 6z GFS has two potential winter storms. Temps are still lousy on the ensembles with minor improvements late in each run. I think the best we can do for the next 2-3 weeks is to try to find a needle in a haystack. Nobody is saying that it will happen, but it can snow during a warm pattern.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, Jon was a great poster when he was over in the SE forum. That JMA was a good run. And yeah, pretty sure it was made right before the models flipped. The EPS broke bad at 12z on 1/16/20. LOL. The JMA has not been the best with handling the MJO this winter. I do like its week 3 forecasts though. They do OK. I don't really hold any Weeklies accountable if they were published pre-flip. Ha!
  24. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I didn't mean it that way. It was not a response to you. I was just saying it looks like it was right. The Euro operational has been stellar in refusing to flip, even disagreeing with its own ensemble and all other global ensembles. So just comparing ensembles, the EPS is a lot warmer and has a somewhat different progression than the GEPS and GEFS after d10. I would probably bet on the EPS, but not without hesitation. In recent memory, there have been two times that the EPS has totally missed a pattern by going too warm...November 2018 and November 2019. This does sort of have that feel to it. That said the other ensembles have been slowly trending to the EPS, but they are just now getting into the ballpark regarding d10-15. So for now, I am going to watch the Euro operation(warm) for trends in the d8-10. Thank you for the animations as well. Much appreciated. At least we will have a record of the flip flopping by all three models. LOL.
  25. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, I think the EPS is likely correct and other models will have a similar and drastic flip. That said, should we at least consider the idea that the EPS is wrong. Man, I don't knowhow much time you have on your hands...but would be interesting to the the GEPS, GEFS, and EPS evolution on their 12z ensembles. Right now the EPS is either the trend setter(likely due to its superior MJO modeling) or it is an outlier. It is kind of fun to watch the heat retrograde across Canada. Going to get some great low tracks with no cold with that look. LOL.
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