Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,665

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Really nice run of the EPS incoming.
  2. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS with some wildness. LOL. New storm on Wednesday. Crusher for M TN after that. Something for everyone.
  3. Carvers Gap
    From MRX...(I normally don't post the entire disco, but worth a read) .Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)... The medium range forecast period kicks off on Saturday morning as a closed H5 cyclone rotates atop the OH/TN valley region, driving a surface cold front through the southern Appalachians. PVA associated with shortwave activity rotating through the upper low will traverse the region keeping rain chances elevated at fcst initialization atop the region of caa. With that, thermal profiles atop the higher peaks/ridges of the southern Appalachians (including the High Knob area in southwest VA) will favor a transition from rain to snow, while a few flurries will also be possible across the northern plateau with all rain in the valley. From that point forward through Saturday, the upper low will slowly transition eastward favoring more NVA into the area Saturday night. Likewise, H85 flow will veer more nwly as well therefore supporting at least some minimal orographically forced snowfall across the mountains through Sunday morning. Meanwhile another shortwave will slide southeast through the Cornbelt across the MS river and into the OH/TN valley by Sunday evening. Surface cyclogenesis beneath this wave across western KY/TN will support weak moisture advection atop the OH/TN valley region Sunday night as thermal profiles cool. On that note, for early Monday morning, critical thicknesses look to support snow for elevations above 2.5-3kft (including the plateau), with a rain/snow mix in the valley generally south of I40, and all snow in the valley north of I40. Fortunately at this point this system does look somewhat moisture starved (despite weak advection), and it`s also a fast mover. Therefore, for now accumulations look low, generally around an inch over the high terrain and a trace to half inch max north of I40. All that said, much could still change so stay tuned, especially considering this will be ahead of or during the Monday morning rush hour. Beyond that into midweek, the operational guidance favors another southern stream H5 low moving across the Deep South with a region of surface cyclogenesis over the northern GOM. Previously there was some disagreement between the GFS/ECMWF, however they both now tend to open up the H5 low and dive it southeast across the GOM only to be replaced with flat ridging over the southeast CONUS. Therefore pops are kept low given range and model uncertainty. Overall, temperatures through the period will be near or slightly above normal.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Some fairly big changes and model swings in the MJO regions. Yesterday was about as inconsistent as I have seen all winter. CPC has not updated of the MJO reading for the 23rd. Really interested to see where that goes. The RMM1GEFS loops and heads towards 3 fairly quickly. At this point, I don't think it is looping back into the warm phases as there is a lot of subsidence over many of the warm regions forecast, but like I said, nothing is super consistent. The good thing is that we have storms to track or at least a reason to watch modeling under 10 days. At this point, the Hudson Bay block is doing its dirty work. The AK vortex is keeping Arctic cold from entering that pattern. That said, it is winter and a proper Miller A can do the job. We have been patient all winter to get to the point where we can track individual systems, so enjoy.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies have a little something for everyone. If you are in the "winter is over crowd" go look at the control. If you are in the "we might still have some winter left crowd," look at the ensemble. And we all know how accurate the Weeklies have been during these past two winters. I think the problem right now is that all modeling is now playing "catch up" with the MJO. I am going to wait until tomorrow, and I might do a longer post regarding that. Until the MJO is reconciled, no model is infallible. I do like where the ensemble products are today. We all know the drill. Been there, done that, and have the t-shirt to show for it. I figure most of us are here to hunt storms and good patterns. Sometimes that works out and sometimes it doesn't. I am just going to enjoy what we have and hope that we can reel this pattern inside of d10. I think November is going to show back up, and I could be wrong. To steal @tnweathernut 's term, pattern persistence is important. If a cold pattern sets up, it might be tough to move. Our problem is actually getting that cold pattern to set up. I am certainly jaded due to last winter, but not confined by its terms either. I have said this before, I see a lot of elements in modeling right now that reminds me of November - the MJO is not one of them yet. It is also important to remember that MJO phases give different results during Feb/Mar/April. As we move closer to March, the warm phases change. I will drop that link below. Yesterday, I set a benchmark of Feb 5 for the trough to slide into the East. Looks like ensemble modeling is still moving forward in time at about that point. Knock on wood, it has not been pushed yet. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ To me the demarcation point(between a good and bad pattern) will be once the trough slides eastward, does it pull back West and leave us with too much of a SER? Does the big, red blob in the North Pacific reappear? Time will tell. Part of what makes this fun is trying to figure it out. I talk about fishing often. I talk about the Madison River often. When I first fished it, it kicked my tail. Then, I figured out some of its secrets, and caught a few more fish the next year. And just when I thought I knew enough to steadily catch fish...it kicked my tail again. Weather is pretty much the same way. The rough patches will teach you to be that much better when the fishing gets good again. The Madison is always changing. It does have a rhythm, but it can change. For example, that caddis hatch that I talk about often. I have it figured out. Rolled out there one night. Caddis were everywhere. Fish wouldn't take my #16 Iris caddis not matter how good the presentation. So, I head back to Blue Ribbon Flies which is my go-to shop in West Yellowstone. Craig Matthews, who literally wrote the book on the modern Madison, is sitting at his fly-tying bench. He wears reading glasses now and has sliver hair...but the guys just know the Madison. He lives on it. He breathes it. So, I presented my problem to him. He said he had seen the same thing, but he had figured it out. The fish were taking epeorus spinners. They are very small and were mixed in with the massive caddis hatch. Went back to the river, had a great evening. I thought I had it licked. Same deal happened again! This time the fish wouldn't take the epeorus or the caddis fly that I presented. Went back and spoke with Craig. This time they were working either a midge or another smaller mayfly. The river was always changing. Each of those tough evenings made me a better fisherman though.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I knew you were. I was just playing along. It means that he reverse mojo'd it. He took back his call and then the EPS found the AN heights over Greenland again. I was just tagging on to what you were saying. It would have sounded better if in person...
  7. Carvers Gap
    Decembers have warmed and Marches have cooled. Saw something on that recently regarding the last decade,
  8. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, can you see the 6hour qpf intervals? Looks like some of that is noise. However, we are on the right side of things for several of those minor events. Something to keep an eye on. @Daniel Boone, some nice trends at high latitudes? You called it.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I am trying hard not to like where the ensembles are heading today.
  10. Carvers Gap
    OR maybe he just double ninja'd the 12z EPS.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The good thing about the 12z GEFS is the cold that spread through Canada after d10. Now, keep in mind the GEFS completely busted on Canada for this week as well as most other ensembles. Remember those pretty pinks moving into the Plains? LOL. Well, they are back.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS looks nice. The good think right now is that fluctuations within the model generally still result in cold in the East once we turn the corner into February. My target date for cold is around Feb 5th. The GEFS is earlier. As with the morning's EPS, the GEFS eliminates the AK vortex.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I think the LR pattern right now is in a state of a flux(but in a good way). It doesn't really look like it is reverting to anything bad(at this point) as it did last Thursday. I think what is in flux is what is going on in Greenland and Alaska. I "suspect", as Boone alluded to, that something is reshuffling at higher latitudes. I was not a fan of what the CMC was doing at d10, but it is d10...so who knows. The 12 GFS looked good. I like the stormy pattern being shown with storms under us and heading up the coast. Cold will be marginal, but it usually is.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Also, the 12z GFS has a "kind of" Miller A. Tries to move up the TN Valley and bounces it outside(to steal a football RB term) and up the coast. SLP is down to 988 inside Hatteras. It gets to 954 to the SE of Boston! Still a very big storm signal for that time frame.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The interesting thing with the MJO is that it moved slightly forward into 7 and gains some amplitude against pretty much every model's guides. One EMON was close. Th other was way off. The other models got smoked. So it begs to question right now whether the MJO forecasts are even close. I suspect a loop occurs. But the Euro is adjusting each day which means it is playing catch-up. I continue to think the MJO actually loops back into 7 and then goes into 8. Just a hunch. There is a lot of subsidence in much of the MJO region to be forecast with some models suggesting 1 and 2 take over. So, that is another option. No matter the loop, the MJO heads for 1 and 2. All of that said, with the MJO all over the place on various models(and I mean all over the place in almost a comical way), interesting times ahead. Basically, the driver for most to the winter....modeling has no idea where it is going. I lean that it is in null or semi-good phases from the next 30 days with maybe a brief jaunt into warmer phases.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Great run of the 0z EPS last night. The 6z GEFS still has a very strong snow mean and the 6z GFS looks decent with many chances(which are not worked out yet at this range). As for the MJO, its looks on all models has been very inconsistent during the past few days. I went back and read the MJO comments, and the CPC feels like the trend is for low amplitude. That said, we will see where it updates today. The MJO has moved further into phase 7 than originally forecast. So, everything is correcting right now. The EPS has been a day or two ahead of the MJO on the CPC MJO forecast lately. My guess is that it loops back into 7 and 8 after this loop but not before making a quick jaunt int 6. But let's see where the actual MJO is today.
  17. Carvers Gap
    BTW, The Mandalorian is awesome. Won’t be the same without Nick though. That guy is a special kind of crazy, and I like him because of it.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I hope isotherm is force sensitive regarding NAO future winters. Cause right now this current winter is like watching The Last Jedi.
  19. Carvers Gap
    @nrgjeff Kansas brought the phase 6 MJO last night, eh?
  20. Carvers Gap
    18z GEFS snow mean that @John1122 mentioned. It is a bit of an outlier, but not sure I have seen the GEFS this strong in some time. Also, the GEFS has the least coldest look of all of the ensembles, but was still better than 12z. As @Daniel Boone mentioned, heights are building in the general vicinity of Greenland. IF that happens, that would allow the cold to finally be blocked and held in NA. Long way to go, but we are going to enjoy each run.
  21. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Man, it would have to be an awesome pattern to move an overall D- pattern into the A column. So many of these LR patterns have withered away to nothing. That has been a trend all winter. But I like Boone’s optimism. He has been doing this for a while. For now, I am going to enjoy the blue being on the correct side of the continent on recent ensemble runs, but w one eye over my shoulder.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Sorry, cut off the date when I cropped it. The EPS map above is for Feb 6th. Looks remarkable similar to the GEPS.
  23. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS looks good in the LR. It is the last frame which is iffy on verification. However, I am showing it to support the idea that the EPS today matches the Weeklies evolution.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Look at that banana high sitting over that system on the 12z Euro. At 240, there is yet another vortex diving into the back of that trough. All told, there is a bowling ball, a Miller A, and who knows what coming right after that.
  25. Carvers Gap
    In the words of Yoda...there is another. The Euro leaves energy behind and then grabs it with a second coastal Miller A. Looks to me like the operationals at 12z are fairly similar. Definitely a time frame to watch.
×
×
  • Create New...