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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    OR maybe he just double ninja'd the 12z EPS.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The good thing about the 12z GEFS is the cold that spread through Canada after d10. Now, keep in mind the GEFS completely busted on Canada for this week as well as most other ensembles. Remember those pretty pinks moving into the Plains? LOL. Well, they are back.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS looks nice. The good think right now is that fluctuations within the model generally still result in cold in the East once we turn the corner into February. My target date for cold is around Feb 5th. The GEFS is earlier. As with the morning's EPS, the GEFS eliminates the AK vortex.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I think the LR pattern right now is in a state of a flux(but in a good way). It doesn't really look like it is reverting to anything bad(at this point) as it did last Thursday. I think what is in flux is what is going on in Greenland and Alaska. I "suspect", as Boone alluded to, that something is reshuffling at higher latitudes. I was not a fan of what the CMC was doing at d10, but it is d10...so who knows. The 12 GFS looked good. I like the stormy pattern being shown with storms under us and heading up the coast. Cold will be marginal, but it usually is.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Also, the 12z GFS has a "kind of" Miller A. Tries to move up the TN Valley and bounces it outside(to steal a football RB term) and up the coast. SLP is down to 988 inside Hatteras. It gets to 954 to the SE of Boston! Still a very big storm signal for that time frame.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The interesting thing with the MJO is that it moved slightly forward into 7 and gains some amplitude against pretty much every model's guides. One EMON was close. Th other was way off. The other models got smoked. So it begs to question right now whether the MJO forecasts are even close. I suspect a loop occurs. But the Euro is adjusting each day which means it is playing catch-up. I continue to think the MJO actually loops back into 7 and then goes into 8. Just a hunch. There is a lot of subsidence in much of the MJO region to be forecast with some models suggesting 1 and 2 take over. So, that is another option. No matter the loop, the MJO heads for 1 and 2. All of that said, with the MJO all over the place on various models(and I mean all over the place in almost a comical way), interesting times ahead. Basically, the driver for most to the winter....modeling has no idea where it is going. I lean that it is in null or semi-good phases from the next 30 days with maybe a brief jaunt into warmer phases.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Great run of the 0z EPS last night. The 6z GEFS still has a very strong snow mean and the 6z GFS looks decent with many chances(which are not worked out yet at this range). As for the MJO, its looks on all models has been very inconsistent during the past few days. I went back and read the MJO comments, and the CPC feels like the trend is for low amplitude. That said, we will see where it updates today. The MJO has moved further into phase 7 than originally forecast. So, everything is correcting right now. The EPS has been a day or two ahead of the MJO on the CPC MJO forecast lately. My guess is that it loops back into 7 and 8 after this loop but not before making a quick jaunt int 6. But let's see where the actual MJO is today.
  8. Carvers Gap
    BTW, The Mandalorian is awesome. Won’t be the same without Nick though. That guy is a special kind of crazy, and I like him because of it.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I hope isotherm is force sensitive regarding NAO future winters. Cause right now this current winter is like watching The Last Jedi.
  10. Carvers Gap
    @nrgjeff Kansas brought the phase 6 MJO last night, eh?
  11. Carvers Gap
    18z GEFS snow mean that @John1122 mentioned. It is a bit of an outlier, but not sure I have seen the GEFS this strong in some time. Also, the GEFS has the least coldest look of all of the ensembles, but was still better than 12z. As @Daniel Boone mentioned, heights are building in the general vicinity of Greenland. IF that happens, that would allow the cold to finally be blocked and held in NA. Long way to go, but we are going to enjoy each run.
  12. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Man, it would have to be an awesome pattern to move an overall D- pattern into the A column. So many of these LR patterns have withered away to nothing. That has been a trend all winter. But I like Boone’s optimism. He has been doing this for a while. For now, I am going to enjoy the blue being on the correct side of the continent on recent ensemble runs, but w one eye over my shoulder.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Sorry, cut off the date when I cropped it. The EPS map above is for Feb 6th. Looks remarkable similar to the GEPS.
  14. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS looks good in the LR. It is the last frame which is iffy on verification. However, I am showing it to support the idea that the EPS today matches the Weeklies evolution.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Look at that banana high sitting over that system on the 12z Euro. At 240, there is yet another vortex diving into the back of that trough. All told, there is a bowling ball, a Miller A, and who knows what coming right after that.
  16. Carvers Gap
    In the words of Yoda...there is another. The Euro leaves energy behind and then grabs it with a second coastal Miller A. Looks to me like the operationals at 12z are fairly similar. Definitely a time frame to watch.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Stop the presses...the 12z Euro brings that energy that was left...up the EC.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Euro leaves the energy behind in the GOM and was a strung out mess. Will be interesting to see the EPS.
  19. Carvers Gap
    So, is the new supercomputer part of the GEPS as well? Gets this look late in the run. Probably not super accurate given the time, but just wondering if the ensemble is running on the new computer.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS mean has increased to fairly hefty amounts across the forum area for the fourth straight run. Impressive, but take it with a huge grain knowing its verification lately.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Both the GFS and CMC have cooled considerably over our forum region around 8. Of course the CMC only goes through 240 by the GFS goes through d10. Those runs are a break from continuity.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Check out the 500 anomaly at 342 on the 12z GFS. Probably should say that in banter since that is an operational at extreme range, but that is pretty impressive.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Surprised the slider on the 0z Euro at 130ish has not been spoken about. The 12z GFS has a faint sig of that small system. The Euro at 0z also had the d9 storm as well, but was more amped. I would be glad to split the difference between the 12z GFS and 0z Euro regarding that storm.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I haven't looked super carefully today at much...computer issue this AM. That said, looks like the third straight run with that.
  25. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS @ 210 please.
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