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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Out to 312, the EPS looks really good w deep BN anomalies centered over the GL region.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I think all of the high latitude AN heights that we have been seeing pop-up on model in now somewhat explainable. Also, good luck to any model getting this right at the surface. This is like turning a bull loose in a China shop! LOL.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Below is the 30 mb anomaly which is representative of 10 and 50 as well. D1 it is perfectly wrapped up. D10, it looks like a stretched rubber band. This is why we are likely seeing so much blocking up top developing. These are d10 maps. Showing these not so much for details but so that I can provide an example of how the stratosphere looks at d10 and how the 500 levels of the atmosphere respond sometimes to disruptions above. Blocking is showing up over NA at about the same time the SPV is getting hammered, and I mean hammered. Figure 1 30mb anomoly Figure 2 Euro OP at 500. Note the blocking in EPO and Greenland regions.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Couple of 12z notes. Euro looks good in terms of track for next weekend with marginal temps. Who knew? LOL. Anyway, the 10d map is a class Arctic outbreak setup w/ soaring heights into EPO regions and over Greenland. Nice look. That look, while likely temporary, is exactly opposite of what we have seen most of this winter - thankfully! Also, that is a major league storm setup then as well. Lastly, the SPV is just getting shredded at 10, 30, and 50mbs.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Regarding next weekend: Might be a bit too far SE and w a thermal profile that is less than perfect, but we take the 12z GFS all day. If real, let it work back to us on modeling. ICON had a similar track.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Forecasting a PV displacement/disruption is always a tricky proposition. Odds are always higher for Asia since its landmass is so much larger. Last year, the SSW actually screwed-up what should have been a good second half of winter. PVs are a massive wrecking ball once unleashed. Sometimes they are good and sometimes not. Would be very unlikely any model has this ironed out. I am not even sure of the timing right now. Just been grazing on Twitter. LOL and that can make one look foolish sometimes. The one good thing is that a trough amplification is forecast for NA beginning about d9. Theoretically, that would give a dislodged PV a place to settle into. West or East...? Your guess is as good as mine. If high latitude blocking does develop, that means the gears at higher latitudes would just grind to a halt like a backed-up drain. Things slow down and the jet up top kinks. What I do like on the GEPS and EPS is the idea that NA would get hemmed in by ridging on both sides. That might induce and omega block. That has been a head fake all winter. So really, right now the potential for a wild pattern is there. We will just have to see where it goes. We have noted on the forum for a couple of days that higher latitudes have a shake-up coming according to some model runs. Thing to watch for is a lot of AN heights over the higher latitudes on either controls or ensembles.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Does not seem like a boring pattern coming up. Also, if the MJO sneak over into phases 1-3...that will likely result in a repeat(at least in part) of November. Something to watch for and would be pretty cool. EURO not buying that yet, but I do not thing modeling is anywhere near having this figured out.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Definitely a lot of talk on other sub-forums, this forum, and Twitter about the PV getting disrupted and maybe significantly. Combine that with an an MJO that is weakening...model mayhem about to be at defcon 1 with one driver potentially being moved to the passenger seat and another taking over. Going to see some looks that we like and some that we hate. Buckle up, probably about to get some model whiplash!
  9. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the trend on the MJO this morning is about to go into the COD and be there for a bit. The Euro has lost most of its amplitude regarding its phase 6 loop. It might stay there 4-5 days at most with some of those days barely in 6. The BOMM a few days back basically stuck the MJO in the COD and left it there. My suspicion on this is that the MJO is about to head to some good phases. We will see if I am correct. One interesting thing to see is if the MJO heads into phases 1-3 which looks an awful lot like what is on ensembles.
  10. Carvers Gap
    For kicks and giggles just after 300...The Euro Control pretty much goes nuts at high latitudes. Does eventually get a slight SER...but that is "almost" what you want right there. Please remember it is the control and it will change. Just thought we'd admire its work from overnight.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Modeling is all over the place. Mentioned a day or two ago that it was probably going to be fairly erratic. Want to see "almost" perfect placement of AN height anomalies at high latitude that would result in us being the icebox...see the Euro control. The EPS pulls back some on the trough but we will see how far back it can actually get. The 6z GEFS corrected its western look more eastward. Right now looks like a cold dump into the East and settles back into the front range. SER will be there off and on it looks like. Not unusual and should not be a surprise given recent discussions about it. I don't think I buy the suppressed looks on modeling over night. It is not unusual for storms to get lost on modeling. Overall, I think the LR models have yet to settle on a LR look. High latitude blocking is showing up at times. My general rule of thumb when models begin to bounce around is that big changes are coming and that possible very cold air is about to enter the lower 48. Looks like a stormy pattern ahead for the next month or so. Vols vs Kansas today. Hoping my Vols can keep it close late into the contest.
  12. Carvers Gap
    EPS eastern trough vs GEFS/GEPS western trough.
  13. Carvers Gap
    MRX actually mentions this Sunday night as being conducive to snow north of I-40 but with limited precip. If someone wants to post the disco...have at it.
  14. Carvers Gap
    As a follow-up, I would not be surprised in the least if the trough that forms is a Rockies to Apps trough w the EC has to deal with warm temps east of the Apps...just based on today's trends.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Basically, the EPS strengthens BN heights over the eastern US and weakens the BN heights in AK. That is very important. If the heights in AK are strongly negative and plunge southward, they could dig the trough into the western US. If the BN heights in the East are deeper, that likely means that ridging is strong to our west and east. That might force that cold into the Plains which would then spread East. The 12z GEPS on TropicalTidbits shows the option where a stronger AK vortex plunges West and digs the trough further West. The EPS shows how to potentially keep the trough in the East longer. I don't think we are necessarily in a pattern where the trough stays in the East, but we if we could get the trough to hold for 3-5 days then we might be in business. The equatorial rainfall west of the dateline continues to brew over a strong ENSO 4 region. That is phase 6 of the MJO. Phases 1 and 2 are firing just east of Africa. As JB noted, those have strengthened in modeling over the past day or two. They might strengthen enough to mute phase 6. I think that is why we see modeling tease the phase 6 jaunt again only to pull that away. So, the EPS shows a more prolonged presence of the trough in the East. Now, if one wants to see our pattern just burn in flames...the 12z CFSv2 is the one. Thankfully, it is almost never right. That said, both the GEFS and GEPS at 12z showed the trough dig into the West while holding eastern heights BN. It might be that those ensembles are actually showing two solutions and can't choose. The EPS, which is handling the MJO better, is still steady. I expect plenty of fluidity and unpredictability in February. Lastly, the EPS continues to show at least a temporary wave of AN heights in the Davis Straits region. Probably is just a mirage, but interesting as that feature strengthened at 12z. I see @Holston_River_Rambler is on it. I like those gifs because you can see the pattern evolve. If you look at ensembles right now, watch AK at the end of those runs on the 500 anomaly map. You will see the cold form AK begin to head south. I talked a little about that being a fork in the road in the pattern. If that cold hits the front range and spreads east...money. If it digs into the West...big SER. The Weeklies yesterday showed a SER of varying strength yesterday, but manageable. The 12z CFS, unlike the cold 6z CFS, depicts an unworkable SER. The key to this will be for the Eastern NA cold anomaly to be strong and the PNA to be strong as well.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I was hoping @Holston_River_Rambler was going to fire up the gif machine! LOL. Let me see if I have enough account memory and I will post a map.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Really nice run of the EPS incoming.
  18. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS with some wildness. LOL. New storm on Wednesday. Crusher for M TN after that. Something for everyone.
  19. Carvers Gap
    From MRX...(I normally don't post the entire disco, but worth a read) .Long Term...(Saturday through Thursday)... The medium range forecast period kicks off on Saturday morning as a closed H5 cyclone rotates atop the OH/TN valley region, driving a surface cold front through the southern Appalachians. PVA associated with shortwave activity rotating through the upper low will traverse the region keeping rain chances elevated at fcst initialization atop the region of caa. With that, thermal profiles atop the higher peaks/ridges of the southern Appalachians (including the High Knob area in southwest VA) will favor a transition from rain to snow, while a few flurries will also be possible across the northern plateau with all rain in the valley. From that point forward through Saturday, the upper low will slowly transition eastward favoring more NVA into the area Saturday night. Likewise, H85 flow will veer more nwly as well therefore supporting at least some minimal orographically forced snowfall across the mountains through Sunday morning. Meanwhile another shortwave will slide southeast through the Cornbelt across the MS river and into the OH/TN valley by Sunday evening. Surface cyclogenesis beneath this wave across western KY/TN will support weak moisture advection atop the OH/TN valley region Sunday night as thermal profiles cool. On that note, for early Monday morning, critical thicknesses look to support snow for elevations above 2.5-3kft (including the plateau), with a rain/snow mix in the valley generally south of I40, and all snow in the valley north of I40. Fortunately at this point this system does look somewhat moisture starved (despite weak advection), and it`s also a fast mover. Therefore, for now accumulations look low, generally around an inch over the high terrain and a trace to half inch max north of I40. All that said, much could still change so stay tuned, especially considering this will be ahead of or during the Monday morning rush hour. Beyond that into midweek, the operational guidance favors another southern stream H5 low moving across the Deep South with a region of surface cyclogenesis over the northern GOM. Previously there was some disagreement between the GFS/ECMWF, however they both now tend to open up the H5 low and dive it southeast across the GOM only to be replaced with flat ridging over the southeast CONUS. Therefore pops are kept low given range and model uncertainty. Overall, temperatures through the period will be near or slightly above normal.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Some fairly big changes and model swings in the MJO regions. Yesterday was about as inconsistent as I have seen all winter. CPC has not updated of the MJO reading for the 23rd. Really interested to see where that goes. The RMM1GEFS loops and heads towards 3 fairly quickly. At this point, I don't think it is looping back into the warm phases as there is a lot of subsidence over many of the warm regions forecast, but like I said, nothing is super consistent. The good thing is that we have storms to track or at least a reason to watch modeling under 10 days. At this point, the Hudson Bay block is doing its dirty work. The AK vortex is keeping Arctic cold from entering that pattern. That said, it is winter and a proper Miller A can do the job. We have been patient all winter to get to the point where we can track individual systems, so enjoy.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies have a little something for everyone. If you are in the "winter is over crowd" go look at the control. If you are in the "we might still have some winter left crowd," look at the ensemble. And we all know how accurate the Weeklies have been during these past two winters. I think the problem right now is that all modeling is now playing "catch up" with the MJO. I am going to wait until tomorrow, and I might do a longer post regarding that. Until the MJO is reconciled, no model is infallible. I do like where the ensemble products are today. We all know the drill. Been there, done that, and have the t-shirt to show for it. I figure most of us are here to hunt storms and good patterns. Sometimes that works out and sometimes it doesn't. I am just going to enjoy what we have and hope that we can reel this pattern inside of d10. I think November is going to show back up, and I could be wrong. To steal @tnweathernut 's term, pattern persistence is important. If a cold pattern sets up, it might be tough to move. Our problem is actually getting that cold pattern to set up. I am certainly jaded due to last winter, but not confined by its terms either. I have said this before, I see a lot of elements in modeling right now that reminds me of November - the MJO is not one of them yet. It is also important to remember that MJO phases give different results during Feb/Mar/April. As we move closer to March, the warm phases change. I will drop that link below. Yesterday, I set a benchmark of Feb 5 for the trough to slide into the East. Looks like ensemble modeling is still moving forward in time at about that point. Knock on wood, it has not been pushed yet. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ To me the demarcation point(between a good and bad pattern) will be once the trough slides eastward, does it pull back West and leave us with too much of a SER? Does the big, red blob in the North Pacific reappear? Time will tell. Part of what makes this fun is trying to figure it out. I talk about fishing often. I talk about the Madison River often. When I first fished it, it kicked my tail. Then, I figured out some of its secrets, and caught a few more fish the next year. And just when I thought I knew enough to steadily catch fish...it kicked my tail again. Weather is pretty much the same way. The rough patches will teach you to be that much better when the fishing gets good again. The Madison is always changing. It does have a rhythm, but it can change. For example, that caddis hatch that I talk about often. I have it figured out. Rolled out there one night. Caddis were everywhere. Fish wouldn't take my #16 Iris caddis not matter how good the presentation. So, I head back to Blue Ribbon Flies which is my go-to shop in West Yellowstone. Craig Matthews, who literally wrote the book on the modern Madison, is sitting at his fly-tying bench. He wears reading glasses now and has sliver hair...but the guys just know the Madison. He lives on it. He breathes it. So, I presented my problem to him. He said he had seen the same thing, but he had figured it out. The fish were taking epeorus spinners. They are very small and were mixed in with the massive caddis hatch. Went back to the river, had a great evening. I thought I had it licked. Same deal happened again! This time the fish wouldn't take the epeorus or the caddis fly that I presented. Went back and spoke with Craig. This time they were working either a midge or another smaller mayfly. The river was always changing. Each of those tough evenings made me a better fisherman though.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I knew you were. I was just playing along. It means that he reverse mojo'd it. He took back his call and then the EPS found the AN heights over Greenland again. I was just tagging on to what you were saying. It would have sounded better if in person...
  23. Carvers Gap
    Decembers have warmed and Marches have cooled. Saw something on that recently regarding the last decade,
  24. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, can you see the 6hour qpf intervals? Looks like some of that is noise. However, we are on the right side of things for several of those minor events. Something to keep an eye on. @Daniel Boone, some nice trends at high latitudes? You called it.
  25. Carvers Gap
    I am trying hard not to like where the ensembles are heading today.
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