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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    LOL...I was just commenting at how many acronyms have to be correct now. And I think sometimes it is easy to overthink things for sure. I am a purist in that regard. Give me a slp over Louisiana and track it inside Hatteras.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I wonder if giphy has a link that times out. I could see back to last January. How long have you had it?
  3. Carvers Gap
    Man, @Holston_River_Rambler, I worked through that giphy account you have. What a fantastic library of model runs from the past year. Don't throw those out. That library could be really useful to someone studying wx models, their verification, and old patterns in relation to the forum area. Very cool.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Here is the MJO from this mornings RMM1 forecast in combination with the GEFS. One can see now the cave to the EURO solution. Also, note the head fake into six and that last segment heading back into the COD. The EMON had that earlier this week. It is likely why the EPS flipped warmer on modeling and also why the GEFS likely took until today to flip. Now, the good thing is that it does not go into 6 and might mean the mega eastern ridge reforming is transient. That MJO forecast correlates nicely with modeling. There is a cool down as it heads into 7 and a crash into the COD. The eastern ridge returns as it crosses towards 6. Then modeling balks a bit late in the LR in terms of holding the ridge in the East. At this point, the MJO is still driving. We will hope that it heads to 8,1, and 2 from this point on OR stay in the COD.
  5. Carvers Gap
    So you might wonder why the head fake on ensembles. Again, I had a long post earlier on the MJO which likely is approaching a false null. Simply put, there is a cold phase region with convection and a warm phase region with convection. It is highly likely that the Modoki El Nino in connection with a warm Pac Basin(low gradient) is juicing the phase 6 convection in an almost endless cycle. Ensembles last week had an MJO arching high into 7 with a probable phase 8 ensuing. Modeling over the weekend began to take the MJO forecast back into the COD and loop it towards phase 6 but stall it just short. If one buys the theory that it is not actually in the COD, the nudge towards phase 6 may mean the phase 6 is stronger than competing phases 8/1/2 convection in modeling. As soon as that trajectory in 7 curled back towards 6 on the COD forecast, modeling responded almost immediately. The Euro has led the way on this. Does it continue to lead the way? Likely but maybe not. As we hit February, the wavelengths will change due to the seasonal transition. Let's see if the MJO follows the early week EMON in that it stalls before reaching 6 and curls across he COD. One last note regarding the QBO and those record levels of a strong PV...The QBO is known to cause high latitude blocking which disrupts the PV. Due to the winter QBO beginning in a positive phase at 30mb, one could make a case that particular mechanism(negative QBO) was not in place to disrupt the tightening PV. That strong PV is another culprit in our warm pattern. There are not enough disruptions and waves to send cold southward. We often like to say that PVs pinwheel cold southeastward. With the PV so strong, those pinwheeling waves of cold are staying tighter to the pole. One last word of caution, if the oncoming -QBO induces high latitude blocking during summer...it could be quite warm in the East if La Nina develops. That would also lead to early season blocking next fall. Feast or famine deal. Finally, if we are in late January talking about LR forecast, the QBO, a strong PV, and the MJO...the pattern is likely not good. I can't find even a snowstorm in the LR. Hopefully that changes.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GEFS broke towards the EPS over night, but gets there more slowly. There outcome is a trough in the west/southwest. The GEPS is the loan outlier now of global ensembles with a nice eastern trough throughout much of its run. We will see where the MJO is today. Mr, Kevin. the QBO is quite dependent on solar phases and possibly ENSO state. Joe D'Aleo has a graphic(regarding the QBO and solar phase) out there along with some research that he has shared by others. For example, a strongly positive(or westerly) QBO could actually help us during a solar maximum. That produces a western ridge. The QBO could benefit us now if it goes negative and holds. As long as it doesn't stall, it is in our favor. A descending QBO in the negative phase usually correlates to an eastern trough with a slight SER if the solar connection research is correct. In general, find your favorite winters and during many of them you will find the QBO negative at 30mb. As for the lag time that it takes? Tough to know. With it being in a phase change, I have a tendency to think it is not much of a driver at this point at all. I do think at some point during later winter or early spring, we might find ourselves with a mix of A and C if it finally kicks-in as a driver. I do think there is much to learn about the QBO. Right now, the MJO and a warm Pacific basin are driving this bus.
  7. Carvers Gap
    One, I bet they had that ready to roll before 12z. Two, I don't think it is a bad forecast. I said earlier, if I hadn't seen a model, I would go seasonal to BN for February. No matter how bad the EPS looked on Thursday, it still doesn't reach into February. As Holston and I discussed earlier...it may be that this step down is similar to the three week step down that we had during October which led to a cold November. I am firmly irritated that modeling lost the pattern during the past 36 hours. The MJO is driving the bus right now. We need it our of phase 5/6 and in the COD or cold phases. I hold little hope for the rest of January, but I am definitely not throwing in the towel yet for February. If we are having this conversation again in two weeks and I am having to look at 10 day models for hope...time to move onto spring. I will be surprised if we get a sustained 3-4 cold pattern. I think a 10-14 day pattern is our best hope. If that 10-14 day time frame is cold enough, that CPC map might verify. I actually don't think Feb is dependent on the QBO. We need the MJO region to settle down. FTR, the QBO has not stalled this winter.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The CFSv2 is definitely cold...so if we go cold in February, it will score the coup along with the Euro Weeklies from the last two runs. Edit: The 18z CFSv2 is -10F over the next 30 days regarding anomalies. Nothing else close to that. Would be something to see that verify. We would all be pretty happy. The Euro Weeklies are -1 to -2F. I think a lot of that comes down to how the MJO has been handled. The Euro has been head and shoulders above other modeling this winter regarding that. It pretty much got the closest to the last loop correct. The CFSv2, GEFS, and JMA were all pretty much wrong. The Canadian might have been close. But like I said earlier, the MJO may very well be split between two areas of convection. It may be in null in error. If so, the battle is between 8/1/2 and 6/7 will decide the next few weeks. Now, as we get closer to shoulder season, the Euro is pretty much equal to the rest.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the CFS has been pretty good. It's MJO depiction a few weeks ago was pretty bad and might be now. But it actually nailed the NE snowstorm a week or so ago. You could see it had predicted it by the colder temps along the coast. JB actually noted that interesting detail. I actually have been looking at each run of the CFSv2 this year. I haven't in years past because it was so erratic. It actually has been consistent this year and worthy of consideration in my book. Plus, it's always a little colder...so it is more fun to look at than the torch runs. It's Weeklies haven't been any worse than any other model's weeklies.
  10. Carvers Gap
    BTW, no room needed for me. I am riding this all of the way to the first week of April. Then it is garden and fishing time. If it gets really crappy, I may head out West for spring and hang out in their snow. That is my real life panic room - 6,000'+ near Yellowstone. LOL.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Great post...Just goes to show there is more than one avenue to a non-winter. Commonality is a very active MJO in phase 6 FWIW and active IO. That IO spike gave us the shaft in December I think. Fab February, man! Come-on!!!! Who needs hope when we have...well, iris blooming!!! LOL.
  12. Carvers Gap
    So far, this is eerily similar to last winter. An early event and then poof. I had noted a few weeks ago that the West had not had enough snow. Man, go look at some of the articles out of the Swan Valley in eastern Idaho and look at how badly those roads drifted. Was incredible. Snowpack out there has gone from BN to normal(or above) in just two weeks!
  13. Carvers Gap
    ...And I should add that no matter how warm the pattern, one cold front timed with precip could yield a big winter storm. I suspect we see a couple of East coast storms before things run their course. Either way, I am getting my garden order ready and working on a schedule for getting the garden turned over one last time before spring. Going to get my spring stuff in soon which will include onions and fava beans. Probably going to start some stuff from seeds this year. Used to do that quite a bit....
  14. Carvers Gap
    Understood. Transition was about three weeks. The first "front" broke the heat around the 8th. The heat kept rebounding very similarly to what we are seeing now on modeling. I am actually glad that you brought it up - it made me go back and look. I had forgotten the transition was that long. It may well be that we are seeing a similar transition...or it may just be the end of winter. Tough to tell. But if the transition is similar, we will see a few cold fronts coupled with some extreme warmth in between...then the hammer will drop. Not saying that will happen, but it would be very cool if it did. I do remember thinking that fall was finally here...then the next wave of heat would arrive. It was also very dry around that time which made the heat worse. Interestingly, the EPS pretty much shuts off the spigot to much of NA not including TX and Seattle. Otherwise, TN is very dry. ...I may go back and look at the Euro Weeklies for precip tendencies. I highly doubt their 500 pattern is anywhere near correct at the 12z run basically sank the 0z like the Bismark. If I remember correctly, tonight's version of the Weeklies did have a recurring SER. If that had been run from the afternoon's run...whew.
  15. Carvers Gap
    It was not quick. It was agonizingly slow. I actually went back and looked at TRI's temps for October. Pattern broke on October 8 even though the following week was warm. It just wasn't as extreme. We then went back and forth for the rest of the month with two cold fronts that had BN air. We thought we had finally gotten out of the pattern, and were hit with yet another extreme period of warmth during the last week. Then, the hammer finally dropped. But no, the pattern broke and took three weeks to step down. Very similar to what we are seeing right now and equally as frustrating. LOL. So, maybe that is a good find, Holston.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I don't think anyone is committed to any model path at this point but the trend for two days on most ensembles is warmer in the medium and LR(even on the models that are still cold)...and pretty frustrating seeing another head fake. The EPS hadn't been shifting much at all until a couple of days ago. It has led the way in identifying the breakdown of the Central Pacific Ridge and subsequent shake-up. The GEFS was actually quite late in recognizing next week's cool down. I would strongly suspect the EPS will likely verify well above the GEFS for the winter as a whole. Neither model will score well with this particular snafu. And for sure, a broken clock is right twice a day. What neither ensemble has been correct about(at least to this point) is the actual subsequent pattern that resulted in the breakdown of the Pacific Ridge. Seems like both models are playing catch-up to a quickly evolving "post-Pacific ridge" setup. The GEFS has been 3-4 days behind the curve - so far. Weeklies look good, but they did not run off the 12z run which is not in agreement with the Weeklies which are derived from the 0z run. The Weeklies and the 12z EPS diverge at d10...so one of them is likely incorrect and badly so. With that in mind, I would take that Weeklies run with a huge grain of salt if not just throw them out in their entirety given 12z trends. That said, the JAMSTEC did look decent in their weeklies but they have been poor in handling the MJO - really poor. Models flip flopping or simply staying with the wrong solution are both equally difficult forecast problems. I don't trust the GEFS as it has a very bad cold bias and has been wrong repeatedly this winter. Its problem has not been flip flopping but was in error by consistently staying with a cold pattern that never arrived. It showed cold for nearly the entire month of December at LR and never verified. The EPS/Euro has had very good verification with the MJO (once winter has settled in)which is why it gets more weight. The GEFS also did not handle the last MJO loop very well. The EPS has been steady relative to other modeling...but still poor. The EPS also has a bad tendency to perform very poorly during pattern changes or once the seasons begin changing. And like it or not, the seasons are changing in E TN. I have seen plants blooming as early as I have ever seen them. Robins are back. My yard is greening up. I will be mowing in about two weeks if the weather doesn't stay cold. My garlic has taken off as have my onions. My cover crops are know knee high. My micro-climate thinks it is spring. Oddly, the buffleheads(we have a couple of pairs near my house) never showed up this winter. I am guessing there is unusually open water to my north. Right now the message from the EPS is clear...We may potentially AN warmth during a timeframe that was forecast as well BN which is later next week. The 18z GFS is moving that direction as well. The 18z GEFS has actually warmed considerably through d11...What we don't know right now is whether modeling is picking up on a transient warm shot(per snowgoose) d8-11 or if it is a total head fake for the entire time period. The Nino BN heights on the GEFS at 0z have been nearly replaced by AN heights at 18z between d8-11. The change is stark. Probably should add it to the flip flop club as well. So, I don't think I am looking at just one run of one model. These changes have been moving across most ensembles for about 36 hours. Hopefully we can reverse those trends and maybe even steal a snowstorm from the multiple storms traversing across the southern tier. But I am not going to hold to colder solutions which are trending quickly away from that. Winter may yet return, I am not throwing in the towel on that or snowstorms. But make no mistake, model trends for the past couple of days have nearly reversed what looked like a great pattern at one point.
  17. Carvers Gap
    No. One of the big problems is the persistent ridge east of Hawaii. That teleconnects to a trough in the West. However, the trough over the Aleutians would teleconnect to a trough in the East. Generally, the feature west of Hawaii wins...unless of course that big red ball of death is up there in the North-Central Pacific. What is perplexing is that the GEFS and GEPS have left the EPS on its own. Now, the EPS can and has taken on all comers and won on multiple occasions. Snowgoose in the NE subform, thinks the Euro deal is a transient shift which I assume means that the ridge that is torching us during d8-11 is going to leave. Of greater concern, these strong cold shots modeled in the LR are verifying as nothing more than cold fronts. Very few things irritate me as much as big model shifts on ensembles. I don't remember ensembles being wrong so often compared to now. Used to they barely budged. So, maybe this isn't a head fake as much as it is a transient warm-up...don't hold your breath there, but know that is a possible outcome. You know, if I was forced to make a Feb forecast with no modeling...I would still go with a variable pattern w/ a slight lean BN. I am going to have to dig back through the fall thread, but we might have had a couple of delays and head fakes right before that pattern changed. This was a bad one though. Hey, but if fooled the CPC a couple of days, so we weren't the only ones.
  18. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS supports the operational but obviously muted. A bit of a red flag is the drastic reduction in the QPF across much of North America. Overall, the trend is for increasing heights over much of eastern NA.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Our hope right now is that the 12z GEPS/GEFS are correct about where the pattern goes from d10-15. We know those great looking patterns have not materialized inside of d10. But it is all we have. Maybe for once the Euro will be wrong. LOL...right. Anyway, for kicks and giggles take a look at the gold on the GEPS while knowing that look has not materialized even one time since November.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Other than the cold snap that lasts for about 48 hours, there is no change to the pattern over the lower 48. The big Pacific Ridge is gone, but trough is solidly entrenched in the West and massive ridge in the East with temps later next weekend possibly eclipsing highs this week - if they verify. The only silver lining is that the Euro operational sends the cold to Baja and that is a classic feedback signal. But there is zero evidence on the operational that the pattern over the lower 48 has done nothing but relax. Hopefully the EPS disagrees, but that is a prolonged MJO phase 6 pattern.
  21. Carvers Gap
    @144 the massive ridge in the East is back and remains(and strengthens) through 240 on the Euro operational. Trough in the West. Unreal. Hoping that is transient, but surely does not appear to be so as it is barely moving late in the run. Officially by all ensembles for the time from of Jan16/17 to 25...a head fake. Temperatures in Quebec are nearly +40F with temps over the TN Valley at +20F with temps in the upper60s and approaching 70 by the end of the run.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Well, the 12z Euro gets rid of the cutter at 204 and tries for a weak Miller A. Problem...temps are MUCH above normal.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I think one thing we have learned is that if the waters are warm in the western Atlantic where MJO phase 6 is...need to temper forecasts from the get go. LOL.
  24. Carvers Gap
    One last nugget...it appears the QBO is decently in the negative range at 30mb. That would likely accentuate any late season blocking on the horizon. Let's see if we begin to see some Atlantic blocking show up.
  25. Carvers Gap
    I was watching JB this morning...so credit goes to his group for the following comments. I will add some of my own spin as well. He mentioned that the new JMA is depicting substantial subsidence over almost all of the areas that are considered warm phases of the MJO. There is convection forecast in 8, 1, and 2. But here is the problem, the Modoki El Nino is warm right in the area where phase 6 is. So, what happens is the phase 6 areas have convection along with 8, 1, and 2. He says that the null phase of the MJO being shown on the CPC might not be a null phase at all but actually be these two conflicting areas of convection that wash-out the MJO signal. In other words, the MJO is alive and well and that the MJO is indeed not in the null phase at all. It is in 8/1/2 and 6/7 simultaneously. Going back to your comment, I think we have ENSO region 4 that is like bath water and is really acting like a super Nino for that area. In the area closes to North America, we have what is basically a La Nina. Both of those SST configurations are massive signals for a SER. The good think about the JMA is that it has flipped cold in its Weeklies look. Do I believe that verifies? Nah. It did that last year and woefully busted. I do think we see much more cooler weather, but will it be able to hook-up with any of these systems in the active STJ? And yes, this is EXACTLY why I hate El Nino winters. They are cloudy, rainy, and warm - most of the winter except for what many will correctly say are a few glorious events. They often get here late and sometimes not at all. That said, this upcoming pattern is a big hitter patten though it might not be a pattern that has sustained cold. Just a parade of storms lined up which are getting forced south by that Hudson Bay block. If we land one storm that is juiced, nobody remembers the crap temps. I had hoped to never see those 90s winters again. That said, plenty of storms line-up. Let's see where it goes.
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