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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Griteater posted this on Twitter.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS is still doesn't agree with the operational. I suspect them having different cores is the problem. That said, the eastern ridge is more suppressed than previous runs but still solid. Might that be the beginning of it moving? IDK.
  3. Carvers Gap
    18z things that were good. -EPO: Check +PNA: Check Aleutian Ridge: Check -NAO: As the emperor in Gladiator would say......
  4. Carvers Gap
    That run has been money for about three straight days. LOL. The place where it ended at 500 is probably something @John1122 would approve of which is a cooperative Pacific and a big ol' -EPO. Fingers crossed the trends of the past 48 hours continue. Good thing is operational models almost have the transitional elements inside of d10.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Probably a more accurate statement is there is a massive ridge in the West after 300 right were it is cold this week.
  6. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS again completely erases the eastern ridge. Run ends with a snowstorm. Pretty cool.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Holston, Mike Ventrice had a 2-3 consecutive tweets about the MJO region earlier today. They were really good. 18 GFS looks like it is on its way to eliminating the eastern ridge once again. Fingers crossed.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Of note, we were in a similar position last year expecting a change for the better, and we know how that turned out. That said, this year we have not had a PV split, the weak Nino/Nada appears to be coupled with the atmosphere, and the MJO is potentially trending into the COD. Nino winters have fickle end games so proceed with caution. I don't think anyone can fault us for crying wolf with cold this winter. We have been banging the drum for warm since early December with the occasional celebration of a non-torch run. It is worth noting(the MA talked about this today and I mentioned it last week), the snow on the ground in the NW is not like last winter in most places. They have had snow, but there are places just outside Yellowstone with bare ground at times. So, they have not had a snowmegeddon like last February - yet. Maybe they build a glacier over the next ten days. I mention that because average to below average snowfall in that area is tied to an El Nino pattern. That said, global snowfall is down a bit in general with the PV at record strength. The west actually has some negative departures in the northern Rockies. https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2020&ui_day=5&ui_set=2 Other things in our favor are climatology and that we had a cold November. Climatology is worth a quick discussion. This is more of a positive La Nada instead of a weak El Nino. The cold off SA certainly has a Nina characteristic. So, what climatology are in? That is up for debate IMHO. If it is Nino climatology, we should have a cold end to winter. If it is Nada climatology, those winters are usually meh end-to-end. The cold November is likely in our favor if one buys that the past two cold Novembers are not the result of a warm Pacific basin forcing the pattern to turn cold in November and then subsequently warm as the winter season settles in. The QBO is now descending and not stalled. If it can get into negative territory, the downward trajectory combined with negative territory will enhance that index - like double bonus points on a video game. Things not in our favor. Does anyone really trust the MJO at this point? It really shouldn't be heading into warm phases at this time of year during Nino(if we assume this is a weak Nino...again debatable)conditions, but there it goes. Will it loop back into warm phases and is the relaxation on the modeling just it entering the COD before re-emerging into less favorable phases again? Climatology is not in our favor if this is in fact a Nada. The PV needs to be knocked of its spot...right now it is too tight and needs to be jostled around preferably into any eastern trough! If one adheres to patterns lasting 4-6 weeks, the pattern should at least reshuffle(that doesn't always mean a better pattern) by mid January. Again, that did not happen last winter. As of this writing, the model trend is in our favor. However, we know that there have seen false alarms all winter and last. At this latitude those probably won't be the last false alarms. The real question I have is whether we enter a new pattern dominated by an eastern trough in the means OR if this reverts back to a ridge after 7-10 days. I don't think we know the answer to that yet. I lean towards an eastern trough, but it is only a lean. This is not last winter, and past performance does not equal future results ...but sometimes in the weather past performance sort of does(let's just hope the pattern in November is what is remembered). Patterns do matter, but the atmosphere doesn't have any memory of last year. However, the active MJO is a commonality and should be factored. So today, we are cautiously optimistic which is better than wall-to-wall warmth. As Bob Chill noted, the EPS is probably the best it has been all winter from d10-15. That said, will that trend continue as it has for several runs?
  9. Carvers Gap
    Looks to me like the Weeklies don't belly the ridge into California. The 12z EPS does and forces the EPO ridge slightly into PNA territory. The 12z EPS pushes the ridge further eastward into California where 0z(Weeklies were derived from that run) does not. Subtle differences, but can make a big difference. The 0z run would have allowed BN heights to slide west of the Continental Divide...12z run forces it all east. Big question will be whether the AN heights over the eastern Pacific are gone or just on a brief hiatus. We definitely want to see the EPO ridge pushing inland as the AN heights right on the tail of the EPO ridge will likely reinforce it wherever it is. Weeklies imply a window from Jan20-30th. Could be shorter or could be much longer. Going to probably be some wild model runs with the shake-up around the 18th. Looks like a lot of modeling is hinting those changes that will weaken the easter Pac ridge begin around d10. Going to be a BIG warm-up in the meantime but maybe we can see the end of it now? Time will tell.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Take it with a huge grain, but the EPS control has a massive -NAO right over Greenland d10-15. I won't hold my breath but worth sharing.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS finally completed its run. Looks like there is a -EPO and maybe part of the ridge peaking into PNA territory. Mean trough is centered over the eastern Plains with cooler air surging eastward d13-15 w a very weak SER. This morning's run wasn't bad. This one was better and very similar to the 12z GEPS and 12zGFS. 12z GEFS is out on a limb w the western trough. Looks to me like a pattern very similar to November "trying" to develop where cold pushes into the front range and then surges eastward. So, let's see if those trends hold over the next couple of days and even improve. The good thing is that the big red ball over the eastern Pacific is forecast to weaken substantially. Ah...bout forgot, the Scandinavian ridge is still present on the EPS. This has not been a sudden flip on modeling as the trends have been working there way into the medium and long range for several days. Now, can we get a trough to hold in the East? TBD.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Very much agree to watch for the head fake, but I do think the MJO supports at least a relaxation. If anyone has 318-360 for the EPS, please share how it ends. My source is stalled. The 12z GEPS and EPS both look very good. The 12z GEFS looks decent. The GEFS, with its old core, is not there yet. The Euro operational actually has heights rising over Greenland near the end of its run. Pattern "should" be due to end by mid-month so much of this does make sense. Looks like most of this is rolling forward in time as the changes are beginning to show up around d10. But legit to question whether the models hold. Given climatology, the current pattern duration(nearly 6 weeks by that point on modeling), the MJO heading out of warm phases...makes sense for at least a relaxation. But very good to be seeing changes vs seeing the current look digging in.
  13. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS is frozen at 318. Of note the control has a strong -NAO. Way out there and likely changes, but it is raging on this run.
  14. Carvers Gap
    12z GEPS(Canadian) shows quite a bit of improvement with a common theme being a -EPO. IF these models are correct, the shelf-life of that huge anomaly over the eastern Pacific will be just around 10 days.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS continues its trend of improving the pattern over eastern NA if one likes winter. Weak -EPO is in place w a trough over much of NA by 318.
  16. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS has a full latitude trough just after 300.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Out to 270 on the 12z EPS pretty remarkable weakening of the AN heights over the eastern Pacific.
  18. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro continues the trend of dislodging the western trough. How long? Who knows. Looks like a shake-up is coming. Edit: For those who have not read my previous comments...reference is d10-15.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Both the 12z CMC and the GFS look like a very slow retrograde of features in the Atlantic, Pacific, and in North America. Every time a cold front pushes eastward, the ridge displaces a little further to the west.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Ridge reforms after 300. Looks like a slightly westwardly displaced -EPO trying to pop. Modeling is beginning to throw less than consistent looks after d10 instead of a locked-in pattern. Likely a shake-up upcoming after d10.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Fairly strong disconnect between the 500 and 2m surface temp maps from 234 onward. We have seen that for several days on the GFS. Be interesting to see how the EPS looks.
  22. Carvers Gap
    And again, at 276 the 500mb map looks warm...but check out those departures underneath.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS continues modeling trends of rapidly weakening the AN heights center in the eastern Pacific just after 240. This likely leads to a reshuffle. Be interesting to see what this run moves to.
  24. Carvers Gap
    If there is one thing that is encouraging about the MJO depiction on the Euro...it is faster than its EMON in exiting the warm phases. EMON had the MJO in warm phases for a more than 20 days. I think the Euro is now down to about 14 before entering into the COD. Question at that point is where does it go then? The 0z EPS was much quicker removing the eastern trough than any other ensemble this morning and matches its MJO look. No idea if it is a relaxation of the current pattern or an actual change. I will be interested to see if the Euro Weeklies actually support the Seasonal depiction. This will be the first time in quite some time that the Weeklies will be derived from a trough that has been dislodged from the West. I do think a pretty big shake-up to the pattern is coming. The GFS yesterday was likely too quick. Would like to see the EPS continue to push the trough out at 12z. Don't want it stalled in time. We know how that usually turns out if so.
  25. Carvers Gap
    As we watch the potential severe wx outbreak time frame of Friday into Saturday. It is worth noting that significant winter weather will often follow these types of outbreaks (at this latitude during winter) within the next month. Not saying that is going to happen, but will be something to watch.
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