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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Out to 270 on the 12z EPS pretty remarkable weakening of the AN heights over the eastern Pacific.
  2. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro continues the trend of dislodging the western trough. How long? Who knows. Looks like a shake-up is coming. Edit: For those who have not read my previous comments...reference is d10-15.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Both the 12z CMC and the GFS look like a very slow retrograde of features in the Atlantic, Pacific, and in North America. Every time a cold front pushes eastward, the ridge displaces a little further to the west.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Ridge reforms after 300. Looks like a slightly westwardly displaced -EPO trying to pop. Modeling is beginning to throw less than consistent looks after d10 instead of a locked-in pattern. Likely a shake-up upcoming after d10.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Fairly strong disconnect between the 500 and 2m surface temp maps from 234 onward. We have seen that for several days on the GFS. Be interesting to see how the EPS looks.
  6. Carvers Gap
    And again, at 276 the 500mb map looks warm...but check out those departures underneath.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS continues modeling trends of rapidly weakening the AN heights center in the eastern Pacific just after 240. This likely leads to a reshuffle. Be interesting to see what this run moves to.
  8. Carvers Gap
    If there is one thing that is encouraging about the MJO depiction on the Euro...it is faster than its EMON in exiting the warm phases. EMON had the MJO in warm phases for a more than 20 days. I think the Euro is now down to about 14 before entering into the COD. Question at that point is where does it go then? The 0z EPS was much quicker removing the eastern trough than any other ensemble this morning and matches its MJO look. No idea if it is a relaxation of the current pattern or an actual change. I will be interested to see if the Euro Weeklies actually support the Seasonal depiction. This will be the first time in quite some time that the Weeklies will be derived from a trough that has been dislodged from the West. I do think a pretty big shake-up to the pattern is coming. The GFS yesterday was likely too quick. Would like to see the EPS continue to push the trough out at 12z. Don't want it stalled in time. We know how that usually turns out if so.
  9. Carvers Gap
    As we watch the potential severe wx outbreak time frame of Friday into Saturday. It is worth noting that significant winter weather will often follow these types of outbreaks (at this latitude during winter) within the next month. Not saying that is going to happen, but will be something to watch.
  10. Carvers Gap
    One can get a pretty good idea of the places most at risk for flooding with this graphic. This is a 30-day total precip map for the forum region.
  11. Carvers Gap
    River systems controlled by dams should likely be OK initially as many of the lakes are already at low pool and can handle the influx. That said, probably the bigger concern would be urban streams and rivers not controlled by dams. We haven't had much flooding up here(NE TN) yet. The ground is fairly saturated, so thunderstorms training over one area would be a big concern. Fortunately, only the tops of the eastern mountains have snow and not a lot. If there was 12-18" of snowpack, we would be in serious trouble on this side of the valley. You all in the mid-state seem to have had more rains just based on observations in this forum. The far eastern valley has a little wiggle room but not much.
  12. Carvers Gap
    That is a complete and total pattern reversal on the 18z GFS...We have been there before regarding false flips and this is just outside of d10. We all know the drill. But folks, that was a complete and total pattern reversal on that run.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Literally, I can barely believe my eyes. LOL. I have been looking at a western trough for so long...maybe 30+ days(120ish runs). NO IDEA if the 18z is correct, but nonetheless, nice to see something different.
  14. Carvers Gap
    At 258, the eastern ridge is gone...like not there at all. Western ridge incoming.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Man. I love the happy hour 18z GFS. It rarely fails to entertain. TX to FL snow/ice storm on this one. Wow!
  16. Carvers Gap
    If you want to see a pattern flip...need to really pull for the 12z GFS as it is a retrograding pattern probably induced by the Scandinavian Ridge which basically forces the entire thing to reverse. Let's see if it has any model support. I think PSU noted in the MA forum that many of our best winter patterns are a result of a retrograding pattern vs one that just rolls forward. It is not quite there at the end of its run but watch the features over the Western Hemisphere. The eastern Pac ridge pulls north westward. A trough dives westward into the GOA. The ridge over NA is beginning to reform in the West. That look is supported by Euro seasonal models and the CFSv2 at times. I think one of the Weeklies runs had a similar look. Not sure the MJO supports any of that yet...Someone reming me, does the MJO lose its affect as winter progresses?
  17. Carvers Gap
    ...And sure enough, the GFS waa aay out there shows that as a possibility. The Euro seasonal was released this morning - I think(didn't look yesterday). Looks good for February. JB has some information on it....but in general the trough is reforms in the East. That fits nicely with a Scandinavian Ridge which we have talked about for a few ays and D'Aleo adds some nice commentary today about it. Bottom line, there are some real and tangible signs now that the NA pattern is about to shake-up. I can see a scenario where the pattern relaxes and the trough reforms out West. I can also see a pattern where the MJO is no longer a driver and the trough reforms in the East. It may very well be a replication of the Fall pattern which was record warmth to seasonal to very cold.. Final note: The 12z GFS does have a full latitude ridge which I think would revert to a western ridge and eastern rough. It appears to be a retrograding ridge(loose definition) and that also fits nicely with the Scandinavian ridge that HM has spoken about for a few days. The last snapshot would likely put the ridge out West, but also open for debate.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Some pretty significant changes to the ridge in the Pacific and with Scandinavian ridging...been on multiple models for several runs. The 12z GFS has displaced the center of AN heights to the point that I wonder at some point the model might replace it with a GOA low.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Just for fun and not for verification purposes, take a look at the 0z GFS at 312. Look at the 500 anomaly, and then look a the surface weather under it. Pretty incredible.
  20. Carvers Gap
    With a ridge at 500 in that nation's mid-section at 300, there is a southern winter storm to our west. Message from the GFS, if we get a system that cuts to the Lakes with the incredible cold in Canada...it may well work under the ridge at 500. Going to be very important to look at surface temps in combination with 500 patterns.
  21. Carvers Gap
    0z GFS has a big 1055 high in the Plains at 270. Might be a ridge at 500, but that is a COLD trough at the surface. We may enter a pattern in the middle of March where the cold works under the ridge at 500. Time for bed. That seriously makes my head hurt.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Some light snow falling IMBY.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Some tangible improvement on modeling today. Not going to mention all of it as it might revert and then my typing is just a waste of figurative breath. Thing to watch is when/if the trough lifts out OR rolls forward. Hint: Keep pulling for that Scandinavian ridge to be the real deal on the EPS.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Meanwhile, there are winter wx advisories up for the eastern mountains.
  25. Carvers Gap
    QBO has fallen to 1.66 from 5.07. That is a significant and slightly accelerated drop compared to the past few months. What that means is that the QBO, at least for now, is not stalled but still dropping at a good clip. Should be negative sometime later this month if that continues. Again, the QBO behaves differently with solar min and max phases. Actually the best QBO state for us is a positive QBO with a solar max. The negative QBO with a solar min does include a slight SER(the good SER and not the massive deal that we are about to have). The good think about a -QBO is that it can enhance blocking and force strat warming in polar regions once established as negative. Again, I have lived through these types of winters before - many of them. The 90s had some truly snowless winters both in Knoxville and in Kingsport. So, this is nothing new for me and why I am always less excited about these types of winters. As for LR modeling, there is some movement of the ridge in the LR...but nothing significant yet. The MJO might be trying to show some signs of working around into more favorable phases on the Euro...but still a ways out on that. The EMON was certainly not encouraging yesterday, but it does not come out every day like the Euro. It may very well be that this is not a true weak El Nino, even though slightly positive. It certainly has some Nino characteristics with rain though! However, Nada patterns are not great IMBY. In fact they are usually pretty lousy in terms of winter. It may very well be that the Nino pattern is not strong enough. Too strong is not good. Too weak is not good. A regular or weak(not near neutral) El Nino will work as well. Even a weak La Nina will work - dry but cold with extremes. If I ranked in order the winters we don't want to have...Super El Nino, moderate/super La Nina, and nada. IMHO, a case could be made that during the last couple of winters that we have had pretty much nada stuff (conflicting Nina and Nino signals). Maybe it was JB or someone in the MA said that the Pacific basin might need a shake-up with an actual basin wide Nino or Nina event(not the super stuff...just normal Nino or Nada). That current colder water near SA is trouble as it favors a SER. It is more of a problem than folks give it credit for. But I can't really complain. I saw a foot IMBY Dec 2018, extreme cold for a week in the winter prior to that, and snow twice already this winter. And winter at this latitude has not disappeared. It is just out West, and I can pretty much guarantee that at some point winters that pattern will switch east. And I say it periodically, the flipping of the AMO during the late 80s coincides with this time frame of crap winters. There are other drivers at work for sure...but the AMO is a proven cold weather driver for this forum area, and it has been opposite of where we need it for about thirty years of a forty year cycle. But alas, this winter is not over. If we loop back into 4-6, maybe so. I don't have a ton of hope for sustained winter wx, but we might work our way into a 1-2 week tracking time frame.
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