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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    12z Model Mayhem continues: GFS OP: Won't bite on the eastern ridge. Slides another trough in late. It does have a cold bias late in its run, so that might be playing into it. And I wonder if that is not what the ensemble is seeing Feb 10-20? It has a SER but it might just be a brief ridge replaced by a trough, wash/rinse/repeat.... CMC OP: New update, right? Bout to find out if it is improved. Dumps trough West and then crawls it eastward though the Euro had a run that was similar a few days back. Wonder if the CMC now has a bias in the Southwest? That has been an outlier solution so far as even its own ensemble doesn't support that. Now, not sure if the ensemble is actually running off the same update. Oddly, the GFS does the same thing with its second trough during d10-15. I have said this over and over again. Don't like what you see, wait a couple of runs and it will likely be there.
  2. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS with a storm around 10...The Feb 5-10 time frame still looks like maybe our best chance this winter so far. It is a brief window, but a lot of things are in place that would support an EC storm. No idea if the operational is correct, but it is just an example of what "could" happen.
  3. Carvers Gap
    MJO is all over the place. The CPC RMM1GEFS MJO does show a four in a couple of weeks which does fit nicely with the GEFS SER. Looks like everything(so far) is very low amplitude which is why the cold can likely press. Question is, do we trust the GEFS? Personally, I go back and forth on this answer. After doing a good job recently with the MJO, it basically caved to the Euro(from yesterday). So, makes me think the EPS can be trusted. The GEFS with that SER and phase 2-3 MJO was out of sync with itself. I actually think the GFS handles change a bit better. It takes corners a bit better. The Euro turns slower but has better physics IMHO. Anyway, do you have a PV update? Forecasts and trends?
  4. Carvers Gap
    Option one this winter has always been to take the worst model, and it usually verifies. LOL. As noted earlier this winter, I am hunting windows for winter weather. That is not without its risks and pitfalls. At this latitude one is going to be wrong more than they are right by doing that, but you all know that. My opinion about Feb 5-10 is about the same. The 6z GFS has a decent pattern during that time frame and the Euro isn't far away. Ensembles do indeed show a SER sometime around the 10th. Please reference my Weeklies discussion yesterday. Looks like the MJO might go into unfavorable phases around that time. We have noted this in discussion for several days - meaning the SER is a real possibility after the 10th. What is encouraging is that the Euro Weeklies did show it being beaten back at times. My guess is that we get cold shots, it warms, cold builds over the front range in MT, and heads south again in pulses after the 10th. I suspect we have 2-3 windows this month which will last from 3-5 days each with the Feb5-10 window looking closer to 4-5 days and others less. I think we have done good work balancing the positives and negatives of the upcoming pattern. Without blocking in the Atlantic, cold windows are going to be short as the Pacific just doesn't stay "right" for weeks on end right now. So going forward these are the things I am watching: 1. I think the warm-up around the 10th is likely. Does it get beaten back by strong fronts? I think so, but nothing is ever a given. 2. Where is the MJO heading? I think the phase 6 region is going to be a fight. See Weeklies discussion for that progression. 3. I think we are going to have our chances, but nothing is a guarantee. Others have different opinions on that, and that is ok....prevents group think. 4. Are we actually going to see blocking in the Atlantic? Some runs have very strong anomalies in varying places in the Atlantic. I have seen east based NAOs, Atlantic ridges(those disrupt the PV), and weak AN heights over the Davis Straits. 5. Alaska. Do heights continue to trend AN there? 6. EPO ridge placement. Sometimes the EPO ridge is nearly perfect. At others, it is displaced too far to the West. 7. As noted yesterday, solar mins and the easterly QBO phase do favor a positively tilted NA trough w a SER of varying degrees underneath. That is shown on modeling at long 8. The TPV and SPV....bout the time of year that starts to really get disrupted or displaced. How does that unfold? Still a ton of fun stuff to discuss from a meteorology standpoint. We have several more weeks of winter with one pattern change now to d8. Since I have to wait until next November, going to track as much as I can during February. And in the event we get blanked, we will still be better at this as we get another month to follow winter wx patterns at this latitude. ...And I still have my eye on the weekend as the 6z GFS brought heavy snow into the Smokies. I may be chasing if that happens!
  5. Carvers Gap
    There are plenty of positives from modeling overnight. Again, we are look at the Feb5-10 time frame with potential a couple of more windows during February. Nobody is calling for wall-to-wall cold and snow. Just hunting a window for wintry weather. Be back in a bit. Temp trends not he Euro and EPS when compared to 12z are not bad on what I am looking at. They look cooler in the time frame mentioned.
  6. Carvers Gap
    0z CMC dumps the trough a bit further west, but still moves the trough eastward. The actual boundary stalls over the forum area. If true, cold air likely pushes south of that boundary. That is the overrunning scenario the GFS had earlier. Just need to make sure that we get on the right side of that boundary. So, looks like we have a couple of options presented so far at 0z. Front roars through all of the way to the GOM and a storm spawns on it or the front passage itself has moisture that switches over. OR the trough stalls and waves run along a front draped over the TN valley. Long way out there still as we are eight days out.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the 0z GFS is still on schedule with Feb 5th still moving forward in time for tbe cold front and trough at 500. Potential is there for snow to fall as that front passes. You all know the drill at this range. And it bears repeating, we are looking for a 4-5 day window where we might be able to steal a storm.
  8. Carvers Gap
    WWAs remain in effect for mountains counties as they received decent snowfall today. MRX with a great discussion for this weekend. 0z GFS with a great track but marginal temps at best. Probably still going to keep an eye on it... Past Thursday, we are still dealing with model uncertainty as there is a lot going on in the atmosphere. We`ve still got a northern and southern stream feature swinging across the Central U.S. at roughly the same time. The ECMWF still has the southern feature further south than the GFS. If this plays out, then we get caught in between the southern and northern stream which would mean little to no precip for our area over the weekend. The GFS continues to be further north and spreads precip in Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. If this is the case then the higher elevations would see some more light snowfall while valley locations see more rain. Model differences exist on Saturday night into Sunday as well with a clipper system potentially affecting our area. It`s too far out at this point to go into much detail other than both the GFS and ECMWF show a good bit of moisture with it. The problem is that the ECMWF is further north and doesn`t bring any precip into our area and the GFS does because its placement is further south. We will see how models handle this as we move forward. Models are signaling strong riding building on Monday. As of now, forecast highs are in the upper 50s to low 60s which would put us around 10 to 12 degrees above normal.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I also should have noted that the Euro Weeklies and CFSv2 imply that we will have a restocked Canada in terms of cold. I am a little gun shy as they have done that once recently. Both of those LR models have another trough amplification around Feb19-20. Take that with a huge grain of salt. Both models portray periodic intrusions of quite cold air into the East during February. May be right and may be wrong, but that is what is on modeling this evening.
  10. Carvers Gap
    But save that gif though, cause at some point sooner or later...we are going to need it!
  11. Carvers Gap
    They look better than Thursday. LOL. And the 12z EPS looks even better. Not saying it is going to be a cakewalk as I noted some phase 6 MJO tendencies mid month. But looks like we will have 2-3 windows during February. First window looks like Feb 5-10 roughly. Weeklies weren't exactly a fan of spring either - we all knew that was coming!
  12. Carvers Gap
    As @tnweathernutnoted earlier today, the cold behind that front is bitterly cold. Seeing some lower single digits after 240 - so take with a huge grain but shows the potential. That air mass, if it verified, would be the coldest of the season. Still a long ways to go, but interesting to look at. And the trough still seems to be on time. We knew we had trouble earlier this winter when fronts would get pushed back...As of now still Feb 5th.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Switching gears back to this weekend. I still think NE TN needs to keep an eye on the wx. The 18z GFS has a strong coastal low with decent snow in the mountains. It would not take much of a westward shift and a slightly stronger storm to change the narrative at TRI over the weekend. The open wave or weak slp has trended a good bit stronger at 18z. Just toggle back a few runs and look at how much stronger it is. Here is the zoomed in version:
  14. Carvers Gap
    One thing to note, troughs on Weeklies are notoriously not deep enough. They have correct deeper most of the time this winter. We just didn't have many troughs until mid Jan.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Ah sorry, I see...5 day increments on those gifs. One day, @Holston_River_Rambler, you will need bifocals like me and understand. The single day increments actually show the frontal passages. Everything on the gif is about five days late and washes out the strength of the troughs and fronts. But overall same idea. Here is Feb 6 at 850. And thanks for the gifs!
  16. Carvers Gap
    Man, that looks way different than what I am looking at.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Nah, man. The run didn't actually look that bad. Temps are normal(edit...excluding first four days roughly of Feb...I was looking at daily maps which average out about normal) and precip AN for February. Now, that doesn't mean much as they have been terrible...but seriously, not a bad run.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Interestingly, those weeklies don't look like the WxBell version of March. LOL. Heights are normal to below for 500 anomalies on it, excluding the first four days. February looks about right.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Digging through the Euro Weeklies. They are a bit washed out IMHO. I don't use 2m temps verbatim when looking at them, because they have a notorious warm bias. So, a little trick I have learned is to look at 850s. One can see fronts pass through with those. Keeping that in mind...First trough rolls through around the 5th. Warmth builds for a day or two and the next cold front rolls through. About every week we get a shot of cold for 2-3 days followed by an equivalent warm-up. Surface temps are basically average out as normal from Feb 5-28. Looks to me like the cold builds in the front range and presses eastward. That looks explains why modeling is bouncing around with the SER - i.e. Is the SER real, and if so, how strong after the 10th? Basically troughs plow through, the SER bounces back to varying degrees, and then the cold builds into the region again. Looks to me like cold is about to be injected periodically into an active STJ pattern. It is a progressive pattern that wiill depend on timing, but w AN precip/normal temps. Of note, Alaska is AN or normal after Feb 10th until almost the end of the run. Basically, it looks like February climatology. Might even have some sever wx mid-month. Not a sever guy, but if we go phase 6 during February and that gets hit by well BN temps...look out. One final note, just glancing at MJO....Overall, my guess would by moderate MJO phase 1and 2 and 3 during the first 10 days of Feb. Then it progress through low amplitude 4-5, a higher amplitude 6 from Feb 10-20. Then, it looks like 7, 1, and 2 fire during the last ten days. Convection west of the dateline is just going to be a pain the rest of the winter. The good thing is changing wavelengths will help. Honestly, it looks very much like the d10-15 of the EPS from this morning continued throughout the run. Really is a shame it didn't run from the afternoon run which had a stronger -NAO and centered the LR trough in the continent's mid section. There you go... a much too long diagnosis of a model run that is already behind its 12z run.
  20. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro: Trough still goes in the East. Has energy riding the Arctic front like the GFS. Might be a 3-6 hours slower, but with a stronger trough that digs more(that is why it is slower). What it is doing over Alaska looks new and might even be a random hiccup. The Euro does weird stuff sometimes that turns out to be true. So, I have learned over time not to discount oddities. However, unless it shows me something on subsequent runs...going to file that as a hiccup. And before folks think...oh no, here we go again. The hiccup is not really a problem by 10. That is a super, super cold look. Virtually all of NA is in the trough, and it really doesn't roll the western ridge forward like 0z. So, good run...but wonky as all get out.
  21. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro is much different(from its previous run) for the third straight run. This time it has BN heights in AK and has dampened the eastern Pacific trough. Not really a break in continuity, but more like very little continuity. Trough is still there, but the AK BN heights are going to create problems. Can't find another model doing that right now, even its previous run. Model mayhem continues.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Awesome. The Methodist retreat center near Max Patch(TN/NC just north of the GSMNP boundary) just posted a video of heavy snow falling. Just guessing, but I bet they are about 3,500-4,000'.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The CMC at 12z is a great example of how the angle of that front on the leading edge of the trough makes a big difference. It doesn't dig quite as much and everything slides OTS. Ironically, we probably need a little of the Euro "digging into the Southwest" mojo if we want to see an overrunning event.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Looks an awful lot like what led to the November pattern....this entire step-down the past few weeks feels like the October(January style) that led to November. The extreme stuff broke shortly after mid month, then a cool down, warmed up, then another cool down, etc. Also, the changing wave lengths likely won't hurt either. We will see where it heads, but the similarities are interesting.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, it is cold up there. Will be interesting to see if that verifies. The 500 pattern as @tnweathernut mentions would support that type of cold. However, we had that forecast I think(at LR) last week and Canada ended up with +30 to +40 departures from normal. LOL. The good thing about this run is the actual initial front is inside of d10. Will come into focus here over the next 3-4 days.
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