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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Going to roll with moderate to strong La Nina, -QBO, MJO 4-6 quiet, more blocking than normal. Lots of conflicting signals which result in periods of extreme warmth and extreme cold that result in slightly AN temps, but bouts of severe cold at times. Going to be moderate/strong Nina vs high latitude blocking. I am not sold on a -NAO, but do feel the EPO/PNA and AO will cooperate at times. I feel it is a decent gamble to say that it will be cooler than DJF from this winter. Just hoping the La Nina doesn't take hold during summer as it will get very hot and dry if so. I suspect August and September have the potential to really be warm and dry.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Interesting. Definitely supports comments made yesterday in this thread and some off-and-on discussions in the sub-forum.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The 0z CMC shows that situation quite well as does the 0z Euro.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Looks like we might get some rain changing to snow with the system around the 27th - nothing huge at this point but that could change as that has the potential to be stronger. That sets the stage for any northern stream energy that follows to be snow. Models have hinted at some weak, embedded energy coming through after the cutter and inland runner combo pass through on the 27th . If that energy is real, that is probably our best chance at snow. It is worth noting that energy at this time of year is often under-modeled at this range in my experience and also that latitude will come well north. So, just some things to think about. We want energy to get buried to our south and work back this direction.
  5. Carvers Gap
    We have been kicking that around a bit in Jax's ENSO thread. Mixed signals at this range and understandably so. I am willing to sacrifice next winter if we can get a strong La Nina. We have not had a moderate/strong La Nina in several years. A weak La Nina often has severe extreme of both heat and cold. Moderate and strong La Ninas tend to favor very warm patterns in the East, but the following winters can be quite cold. Basically, we need to drop the ENSO equivalent of an ice cube in ENSO region 4. A Nina would likely help the SST the gradient in the Pacific (again, TyphoonTip has talked about the lack of gradient during the past two winters). I am not convinced next winter will be an improvement, but if we get a La Nina...it could set the stage for some good winters. One area that will be interesting is whether strong blocking develops as there is some correlation to that happening the year or two after a solar min. I would lean AN for next winter(with cold extremes embedded), but that is super weak sauce from this range. LOL.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Looks like since the AMO flipped(just looking at that graphic), we have had three moderate/strong Ninas that have been cold during winter and seven AN. I always thought 95-96 was weaker off the top of my head. That said, seems like as long as the Nina is not a super La Nina...we get lots of extreme cold and warm. I definitely think we needs as strong of a La Nina as we can get - even if we have to sacrifice a winter to do so. Seems like the following winters after Ninas can be pretty good. We are long overdue for this shake-up, and I think this has had a lot to do with the AN temps in the Pacific. @john11 can probably answer this, John how do we do during strong and moderate La Ninas. Seems like weaker ones are colder.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Oh yeah, understood they comments regarding spring. Was just picking your brain about later in the year.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for the heads-up. So, western Pac convection (as long as it is not in phase 6) is not a terrible thing in March, right? In other words some of the MJO phase(maybe phase 5) that were warm during the heart of winter can actually be cool during later winter and early spring. Or do you feel that the western Pac is in conflict with the prolonged cold signal?
  9. Carvers Gap
    Going to make one edit. The Feb 27th window may actually last until March 3rd. The EPS hints at another system around March 2nd. Big trough rolls through on the 27th with a chance at an inland runner, but could also be a cutter. Then, as the Euro operational depicts at 12z, the cold pours into the East, and a few northern stream features(not seen many of those this winter) have potential to work into the pattern. As that cold matures or leaves, seems there is a window for another slider or one that phases. Per the 12z, there are varying chances embedded in that window at the front end of the window, the middle, and as it departs. Hopefully, we get a couple of more chances to track. The first chance is now under 7 days out. I think our best chances come as the cold spreads into the area and the northern stream sends a few pieces of energy into cold that is already in place. Might have a chance to be our strongest cold(by anomaly) all winter.
  10. Carvers Gap
    @nrgjeff I know strong Ninas are not great for winter in the East. However, given how 3.4 has amped phase 6 of the MJO this current winter...do you feel that a Nina winter might actually be an improvement even with its leaning towards a warm pattern? Not sure we see a winter warmer than this one even with a La Nina. I know we do see extremes - both cold and warm. Also, looks like that might push a warm end to summer and beginning to fall(referencing Jax's last post)? Anyway, I think a La Nina of moderate or strong strength is needed to "reset" the Pacific SSTs. Been a while since we have had a good one and the Pacific reflects that I think...
  11. Carvers Gap
    Temps...we will bad mouthed for many years. Been terrible. LOL. This is what an active STJ can do if any cold can get into a rainy pattern. We have said it some on this forum...it can and does snow during a warm pattern. It is one reason most folks really stay clear of making snow predictions for winter. Snow doesn't always correlate to temps. That said, most areas north of I-40 will likely still finish BN for snowfall and maybe well below. However, definitely makes events like these easier to appreciate. BTW, I only got about an inch of snow from this. Chattanooga has more snowfall this season than I do and awesome for. them. They are always great to cheer for those who live in locations which get more snow on average. For TRI, not a big storm. JC might have gotten a bit more. However, after staring at d10-15 patterns for two months, it is nice to see three events that had frozen precip. Still an underperforming winter for areas north of 40(and likely western forum areas have not too well - @AMZ8990 country). Looks like one more window between ~ Feb 27-March1. EPS wants to dump the trough West around d12(but still has the aforementioned window). Little bit of a break in continuity, but I am suspicious anytime it digs into the Southwest - I won't be surprised if the current pattern just continues with periodic troughs and cold. Its control holds with continuity by having an extended window for winter weather after Feb 27 to basically the end of the run. Main problem is the Weeklies ran off the 0z run, and that means they are less reliable than normal as 12z broke to a different pattern late in the run. Just glad we have had something to track and maybe still have have a few more events to track. One last thought, it is possible that the EPS is back to its old games from November, but we will see. Who knows. Good thing is the operational is better than the d10-15 which is a nice change!
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro operational has four potential systems of varying strength. Has an inland/Apps runner, a system that dives into the back of that, a northern stream system, and another northern stream system right after that waiting in the Plains. We have done reasonably well when the Feb pattern gets cold injected into an active storm pattern. Let's hope that continues. Been pretty fun.
  13. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro now has something trackable during the 180 timeframe.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Models showing some potential around 177 on the 12z run of the GFS. The CMC is close. Looks like potential for a phase. Timing is everything so it may take some time to work that out. 0z Euro had the northern feature but didn't phase it.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Same here, especially on global models. I generally find precip to be a few hours ahead of modeling during many events, but not all. RAP and HRRR is easier for me - I just count the hours to whatever I am looking at. LOL On another note, medium and LR modeling continues to be quite cold - as in BN stuff w duration. The 0z EPS has many BN days and very few AN days. We will see if that holds. The EMON is COD city for the MJO. If so, the inhibitor of the EPO ridge is lessened.
  16. Carvers Gap
    What is the time of day for this event? Time of day makes a huge difference right now. In other words...when does it hit Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and TRI? I think daytime is a no-go if this is marginal. Nighttime is workable.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I usually like to use it once it is under 48 hours.
  18. Carvers Gap
    For sure, I am not unconvinced that this doesn't fall as rain if we don't get strong enough rates. Very much a northward trend since yesterday. At some point that trend stops. Need to see enough moisture but not WAA that is wicked strong. I had said a few days I didn't want to be in the bullseye at 5-6 days out. I am not sure we want to be in the bullseye with 72 hours out. LOL. Still a little wiggle room. Just give me the big high and plenty of precip. Heck, even slow it down a bit.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The 0z EPS hints at another stormy window near the end of the month with the control sending another nasty slider across the forum area.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Great short term discussion. To add to the LR, the 12z EPS and Weeklies(today's run) are not warm after d10. Euro Weeklies imply that we will have BN temps pushing eastward on a regular basis through at least the first three weeks of March. So we have the window this Thursday in which cold lasts from Feb 19-23. We have the window which potentially begins around Feb 27 and lasts for an undetermined amount of time(might be longer than the 2-4 day windows that we have been getting lately). Take with a huge grain of salt. Pattern change? Maybe, but more likely just a relaxation similar to last November.
  21. Carvers Gap
    6z GFS trended north as well, but not quite to Euro levels. As John noted, good look on the Euro...just very light. Wonder if we can get the precip shield to expand without the cold being pushed out in response?
  22. Carvers Gap
    I agree. Think that system is coming north due to that? That is my thinking.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I think the question right now is whether we can get an overrunning event without pushing the cold out of the way. Have to think it is possible, but is it likely? Not sure. Certainly recent trends are brining precip back northward to where it was originally modeled. One more jog north and we might be tracking something. Remains to be seen if that happens. I think we see maybe 1-2 more jogs before it locks in, and then one last jog within 48 hours. Also, very possible that modeling sees a colder air mass and presses it southward. Pretty much everything is on the table with this. LOL. I suspect it keeps coming north, but will be interesting to watch at 12z and again at 0z tonight.
  24. Carvers Gap
    6z GFS came north as well. The 6z GEFS mean has bumped up along the border of AL and TN to around 1.5" of snow. Let's see if it keeps trending.
  25. Carvers Gap
    18z EPS mean is on the left.
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