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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the 0z Euro has a significant snow storm around Feb 9th with some areas of the Eastern Valley modeled with 6-8" and lollipop areas of 10-12" on the southern Plateau and GSNMP. Pretty good thump for the Plateau and Eastern Valley. This is the first I have seen of that particular system, so I won't be too invested until we see it again. As has been mentioned ad nauseam, that is in the window that we have been tracking. The reason the window is a good one is because of the trough that is coming through on the 7th, which is about 36 hours later than modeling had it about a week ago, but is still well within the parameters that we have been looking at which is the 5-10th. The Euro would have sever and snow within about a four day time frame. That is not without precedent. Again, not getting too much invested in that run as that look was a first. Definitely worth some discussion since it is within day 7. As noted a few pages back, the Euro extends the duration of the trough through almost 240. The 0z and 6z GFS continue to show a decent last wave of three along the initial trough arrival. It is going to have to be watched. The Euro has a similar set-up but accentuates the trough right before the GFS does. Either model could be correct. It is in the realm of possibility that the first wave could be sever and the last snow.
  2. Carvers Gap
    LOL. I need to look at the initialization date. I had prepped your ENSO pics and realized the time stamp is Jan 1. Please disregard the Cansips I just posted. Hasn't updated on WxBell. Pretty crazy the CANSIPS hit that pattern on Jan 1.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I have learned as a Tennessee Volunteer fan to never ask the question, "Can it get worse?" The answer is, "Yes, yes it can." As noted earlier, I think the MJO is a fight the rest of the way unless there is some sort of major model bust that way. If we are going to steal a shot down the road, I think we are going to either have to have very cold air overwhelm the pattern or get some unlikely help in the Atlantic. But still, February is a month that often has surprises. But yeah, the MJO has not really looked good at any point this winter.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Still watching the timeframe just after the 5th(trough is a nudge later which is no surprise). The 18z GEFS has frozen precip for western TN and NE TN. Then another little system dives in behind the initial front from the trough and brings more frozen precip to the eastern half of the state. Not a bad look. Nothing huge at this point, but I am still watching that last wave of precip on the initial front. The CMC at 12z also had eastern Arkansas in the mix. As evidenced with what happened in NC yesterday, a properly placed slp during winter can bring snow with even marginal temps.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Feb 5-7 window update: Looks like the deal where we get three waves of energy is still in play. The 0z CMC has a great track for portions of middle and west TN. That model has been better or equal to the GFS lately if what I have read is accurate. Both the GFS and Euro have the final wave, but are too far to the east to make a difference for E TN - but just by a hair. Will be interesting to see if modeling jumps on one of the three waves and really accentuates on of those last two waves. Not letting my guard down, just in a hurry.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I think what we have to hope for is that is gets beat-up enough that it won't be as consolidated as it was during January. We just need it to not be wrapped-up so tight. I probably should have placed this in my "things to watch" list. Good find.
  7. Carvers Gap
    So, I think there are still two camps. Trough digs into the West or low gets cut-off in the West and the trough comes East. Great arguments for both, but at least there are two camps and not the one crappy camp. The 0z EPS doubled-down on the eastern trough never leaving after the 5th. Glad to have it in our corner as it generally scores the best. The 0z GEPS lends it some support but later. The 0z CMC cuts off the low. The 6z Euro operational does so, but not as much as 12z yesterday. 0z GEFS is western trough. The GEFS has been awful of late, but I think we still need it before feeling better about trends. @jaxjagman's share about the MJO definitely should sober-up even the most diehard snow lovers in the crowd - me being one of those. So some things to really watch: 1. The EPO ridge. It was very strong on the Euro operational and on the EPS. It does show some retrogression into the Aleutians on the EPS but is also strong on it. 2. Does the EPS teleconnect well? Sort of. Sort of not. Europe cools which is a good sign and that fits with the eastern US being cool. Aleutian highs don't exactly scream cold in the eastern US. There is sort of a weak weak low east of Hawaii. Heights do build into most of Alaska which teleconnects well to cold in the East. 3. The MJO. Have to think the MJO looks worse on the GEFS when compared to other models. The only think I can think that is driving the EPS is that the cold simply is so strong that it just wins the day. 4. Source region for cold. How strong is it? Source regions have not been terrible this winter. Fairbanks, Alaska, just logged a really cold January according to Joe D'Aleo. We just haven't had a mechanism to get it here. 5. Changing wavelengths. I would guess that the shorter wavelengths would make a big, western trough less likely. Granted, the EPS is actually longer wavelengths. LOL. 6. Does the low cutoff in the Southwest? As @PowellVolznoted the Euro has a tendency to hold energy in the Southwest too much. Right now, it seems to do it the least. Seems like the GFS/GEFS combo are having more troubles or they are scoring a coup. So we are probably stuck with two ironies here. Either the Euro solved the Southwest cut-off first or the GFS scores a coup. Not sure which horse to bet on there. 7. AO region in Canada. That might be the one of the main differences in the GEFS and EPS. The EPS raises heights in that region Final thoughts: As many have suspected, that low in the Southwest holds the key after Feb 10th along with where the EPO ridge is. As noted last night, there is a lot of spread just after the trough comes through next week, but a good chunk of February probably rests on what happens in about a 24-48 hour timeframe in the Southwest and whether it cuts off. Time will be at a premium today for me and tomorrow. Busy times. As for 12z...I am not holding my breath, but am also hopeful.
  8. Carvers Gap
    LOL. That is crazy. We want their trough. They want our ridge.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Oh yeah. On top of that the West Coast has been a mess on ensembles for several days after Feb 10 with some solutions that have been head scratchers. We have overcome poor MJO phases in prior winters, but we have to have a lot of cold in the pattern to do it.
  10. Carvers Gap
    I think the Euro control shows one option. If the low truly cuts off in the Southwest...that is a plus. That would mean the main trough could roll into the East. But is it right? Anyone claiming certainty this winter will be humbled quickly. The GEFS at 18z shows another, less wintry option. Lots of great discussions on this forum about the pattern in November repeating itself during winter. Would be neat to see that idea bear some fruit.
  11. Carvers Gap
    It they all showed something like that. Maybe. The spread on modeling after the 10th is massive. Trend is to diminish the western trough on the GEPS/EPS...but the MJO is a major problem. While the GEFS has been woefully inaccurates, prob going to need to see it jump on board. I have been out of pocket much of the afternoon. I will dig through the emsembles this evening if I get a chance. Before I get too invested, I am going to need that run of the EPS ensemble backed up by several runs. My guess is that things are going to keep bouncing around. This has been a one step forward, two steps back kind of winter. I am ready for two steps forward abd one step back.
  12. Carvers Gap
    One last nugget until later. The EPS control is an eastern trough from Feb 5 to the end of the run with zero western trough. It just reloads with one cold shot after another. Everyone knows the rules...huge grain of salt as reversals can always be reversed.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Well...shall we talk about the disappearing eastern ridge on the EPS? LOL. The 12z Euro operational has no western trough - zip. It has a cut-off and that is it. It ain't great, but the trough in the West does not hold. The 12z EPS is much different for the better. Have a project going on this afternoon. Maybe I need to do that more often. The SER is over TN for no more than 72 hours. EPS backs up the operational in that it cuts of a low in the Southwest. The "parent" trough moves east and leaves it. The cut-off tries to form a new trough which is promptly kicked into the middle of the country and eventually eastward by the -EPO. Not sure any of that jives with the MJO, but those are pretty massive improvements at 500. One could make a case now that the trough never holds in the West just based on that run(there are reasons it could be there in reality...mainly the MJO). The SER on that run of the EPS is literally just rolled out. That run is a continuation of the trend to cut-off the low in the Southwest, and that changes everything downstream. Nice run of the 12z Euro which definitely puts E TN in the game for snow with the third wave. Nice look. In a hurry. Feel free to discuss. Nice improvements across the board on the Euro. Will they continue? Who knows. LOL. For those new to the board, @nrgjeff with a great post above. Just another reason we have a great subforum and why I will be pulling for the Chiefs on Sunday. That is all from me until later. Have a great weekend, everyone!
  14. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS is fairly strung out. Jumps on the second wave of energy. Third wave is there but gets tamped out. Anyway, if you look at the mslp 6rh precip map on TT...at 162 that is a better organized system with a comma shape. Maybe a bit more organized than 6z? Now my day gets busier. Hopefully will be able to check back.
  15. Carvers Gap
    While we are killing time waiting for the next set of model runs. Check out Horse Shoe Farms in Hendersonville, NC, just over the mountain from the E TN folks. https://www.resortcams.com/webcams/horse-shoe-farm/
  16. Carvers Gap
    This is what I was talking about earlier regarding the pattern after Feb 10th. The graphic below is 276 of the 0z EPS. If I didn't already know the MJO forecast, I would say there has a chance to cut-off that energy and roll that trough eastward into Canada. I think the endgame is still likely ridging in the SE. However, it would likely mean the trough wouldn't dig into the West, just would spin and eventually come out as a storm. There is also a big difference between a trough digging in the West and one that is in southern Canada pressing. See my pattern pattern discussion graphic yesterday - the one with arrows. It does dig into the West after this image, but the trend has been for more of a cut-off. That would change the downstream pattern long term. The 0z EPS is quite different from the Weeklies at this time frame. So there remains the possibility that is actually a cutoff. Models have been bouncing around between this look for several days. Some really dig the trough into the West and some leave it there for just a matter of days. The Euro operational actually cuts of that low. Still a ridge down stream, but that changes the game some. As for the 0z Euro, again if I lived in west Tennessee, I would be watching that third wave of low pressure. Granted, waiting on a third wave is dicy. But the Euro slp placement would likely be some winter there. As evidence of low placement, many of us talked about the potential for winter weather this weekend just on slp placement alone. Western North Carolina has heavy snow as we speak. SLP placement matters regarding snow many times. It is as important as temp profiles. It is worth a reminder, many of us are hunting windows for winter weather. I think we understand that a sustained, cold pattern is highly unlikely. It has been noted multiple times. Most of us are here to track winter storms during winter. We know at this latitude that it does not want to snow about 98% of the time. It would be like hunting a warm pattern in Alaska during mid-winter. It happens, just not often. Most of us are trying to see what the potential is for a pattern or window in terms of winter weather. We all know the default is rain, especially in a base-warm pattern like this winter. If you don't think I can go warm, go back to my December posts. Right now, just looking at patterns and enjoying looking at each model run to see if we have a chance or two. We only have about a month left, so going to enjoy working through interesting model runs. We will hit a get stretch of winter again, though I am not convinced it is this winter or even the next winter. Feel free to post ideas that are to the contrary. That is what makes it fun - just don't make things personal. It is just weather.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Would not surprise me at all, Powell. That SPV is getting kicked around...if it splits we could see a March 2018 redux. Even if is splits today, with the lag it might not impact the troposphere until after mid-month. The timing would be very similar to 2018 in that regard. Hopefully it just winds down like a top vs splitting in early Feb.
  18. Carvers Gap
    And we also have some great meteorologists on our forum who chime in as well. Again, welcome aboard. Maybe we will eventually have something to track. If not, severe season is up next.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I think that feature is going to possibly be a cutoff. Will be interesting.
  20. Carvers Gap
    I think we will survive. LOL. And welcome to the forum. During winter most folks are usually looking for snowy and wintry patterns. So that drives the forum during winter and is actually what started it. Now, we have folks that follow the weather year round. We do severe wx, ENSO, summer wx patterns etc. But yeah, it is warm and the first four days of Feb are going to be warmer likely.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Also, the 0z Euro has two storm opportunities. It manages to get snow into west TN with that third wave again. It also has a new slider w snow for NE TN and one last true cold shot at the end. We will see if that holds. A little bit of a different look, so take with a huge grain.
  22. Carvers Gap
    I had this fired up and ready post yesterday, but thought...nah. On some ensemble runs, that looks a lot like a cut-off low. Now, the result downstream might still be the same as the trough might pull up into Canada. But IMHO, for that EPS run, that looks mored like a cut-off than a trough.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Hold down the fort tomorrow. Busy day on my end of things. Will check back if if I can...just didn't want you all to think I was bailing. Should be back some over the weekend and definitely by early next week.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Mempho, I had my doubts about this set-up. But this has been pretty fun. Glad to hear you all have your quality control issues worked out. How many days has it been since Memphis has seen more than 2" of snow?
  25. Carvers Gap
    I don't see anyone stopping Mahomes and that offense. Not sure I have seen an offense that efficient in a long time. If a team misses scoring on a couple of possessions, they may be down two TDs to the Chiefs. Amazing stuff. If the Weeklies are wrong and we have a great February, I am buying everyone in the forum a serving of their favorite beverage. I feel like one of those car companies that supports full court shots at halftime(make it and win a car). Safe money. And if I have to pay up, then something good must of happened. As for the ski trip, might should have made that font red as well! Anyway, we will be pulling for the Chiefs in my household!
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