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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Thought this was worth a share from Jax over in the ENSO thread. JB actually shared this today...Jax shared this on Monday. It is a great piece of information regarding the MJO.
  2. Carvers Gap
    This wind discussion is worthy of the main thread IMHO. Interesting stuff.
  3. Carvers Gap
    We do a lot of strat talk in this thread. Thought this was pretty interesting regarding the stratosphere and its importance in forecasting and modeling of wx: https://usys.ethz.ch/en/news-events/news/archive/2020/01/forecasters-should-look-higher-up-to-predict-weather-weeks-ahead.html
  4. Carvers Gap
    . LOL. Strat going to get bumped around on the GFS late in the run. Temps really warm at 10mb. I suspect this is the real deal. Should make early baseball season super warm - not really.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The GFS does also have a notably strong SSW even at 10mb around the end of its run. Unlikely that really helps our winter chances. However, the SPV and TPV have been coupled this winter and a top->down split might cause blocking quite quickly. If that is true, should start seeing some strong blocking signals showing up late in model runs during the next few days.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS has sped up(by about 20 hours) the eastern trough just after d10 w the first effects of the trough impacting western forum areas around 270. As we suspected, the trough will try to lift out and another trough will attempt to reform in the West almost simultaneously. Looks super similar to what will happen on the 14th and what occurred on the 7th. This one rolls through on the 22nd - again almost every 7-8 days a big trough rolls through or front. The trough on the 22nd is deeper w the AK vortex lifting out right at the end of the run...which is a good thing I think. Lifts out and ridging from the EPO likely replaces it. The EPS does look like a model flirting with phase 8 of the MJO at least just based on its look in NA. I seriously doubt modeling has the pattern nailed down right now. The Feb 14 cold front was basically missed in the LR by the EPS/Euro. Cold air supply is notably weak for the Feb 22 trough. Interestingly, the GFS does show some signs at 10mb late in the run of another SPV disruption, though lower levels are stout. That does coincide with a strong WAR which precedes the eastern trough on the 22nd. That WAR has preceded disruptions this winter and has precede strat splits in the past.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Internet is down now but the power is back on...(remember me telling you all about them cleaning out power lines in the neighborhood...fun times). Looks like the Euro stalls the energy in the Southwest and sends it into the Plains. Legit possibility and also possible it is hung up. It looked pretty close to the GFS actually, but held back the main piece of energy. Anyway, pretty limited viewing opportunities - meaning my computer loads really slow so I am having to load one slide at a time instead of the entire run. Good thing...not a ton to discuss so far. LOL.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Get a 1040+ hp parked over the top of a front that stalls...lots of options on the table I would think in an active weather pattern. Miller A, ice storm, multi-day overrunning event, etc. Just would depend on what side of the front we are on when it stalls. The 12z GFS is one option which is a slp forms and runs the front as it drags through the GOM. Another option is just cold chasing rain like this Thursday into Friday, and that is probably option 1. Seems like I usually see ice if the cold gets trapped and then there is WAA aloft. I suppose if the front presses south of us, the cold air presses, and the front comes back as a warm front...it could happen OR there are multiple waves on a front w a stalled frontal boundary. Probably the biggest problem is those big 1040+ highs have been mirages on the GFS lately. That said, this is inside of d9 so can't rule it out completely.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Anytime a front slows and the tail stalls in the GOM, has to be watched. Sometimes that will form a wave or slp. I remember many snowstorms when I was young where snowstorms began as rain. With the GFS cold bias, just tough to buy that at this range...but it has been fairly consistent with a storm signal at that range. The Euro operational is struggling with holding too much energy in the West and IMHO is causing issues after d7-8. Also, with the MJO changing up, we may well see some wild looks on modeling if phase 8(or even close to it) is on the table. For as bad as January was, February has had some trackable systems. Usually if I get 1-2 snows in February that is about normal for MBY. Right now I am at zero. LOL. However, others have done well so that is cool in my book.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Indeed. Been popping up at this time frame off an on. Guess is the GFS is probably too strong with the cold, but something to watch as it is within the 9 day window.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Power is out right now so my pic resizing tools are limited. The ECMF MJO continues its good trends. The EMON(long range) is COD for most of its cycle after d10 w a run at 8 but doesn’t quite get there. IMHO, that is a signal for a western ridge shortly after d10. If the PV stays wound up, cold source regions may be an issue. It is worth noting that modeling notoriously struggles at this time of year and those struggles only get worse as we approach and then enter early spring. My guess is that we have another pattern shake-up later this month. As has been illustrated all winter, new patterns are not always better. We missed a real opportunity from mid-Jan to the end of Jan with a HB block. Cold was absent and bottled up in AK. We were able to hit on the trough in earky Feb. Going to have a great cold front on the 14th but dry behind the front. IMO, the time frane from the 20th to roughly March 5th is the next window. Those windows look great at a distance but have been verifying as 48-72 hour windows. Looks like a front may come through around the 24th, but that is a ways out there. As for thr PV, it could just wind down slowly. Sea ice area is as strong as it has been in 7-8 years after record lows this pas fall. A tight PV will do that. Bob Chill has a graphic in the MA banter thread. Another option is the PV could drop into one of the troughs in the northern hemisphere as it gets ragged and unstable as early spring beats it up. Can’t stress this enough, this is the time of year where modeling is all over the place. Wouldn’t get too invested in any look(good or bad) past d5-6. Prob going to change.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Well, we had two advisory level events last week in out sub-forum. So, it has not been a shutout pattern for some. Pretty remarkable given temp departures for the season. To me looks like our next window is after the 20th. The 14th is a very cold look, but no storm at this time. Lots of great discussion above regarding the PV and MJO. I don’t think we leave the non-favorable pattern until met winter is almost over, if that. Last week of Feb holds some potential for cold. My hunch is that PV will eventually break up and part of it will dive eastward later in Feb or early March. But who knows? Will not help many at that range anyway.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS(rarely disappoints) at 252 is why folks keep watching modeling. That set-up is likely gone by the next run, but it exemplifies how this pattern can produce a storm with one of these cold shots. Again, just an example and not the gospel at this point. One foot for portions of Southwest Virginia on that run and a nice thump on the Plateau.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies imply the HB block does not last and reverts back to a western trough. IMHO, we are now at the point where the Weeklies may very well struggle due to shoulder season. Jax has a great share over in the ENSO thread about the differing looks of the MJO. Going to be very interesting to follow the MJO over the next few days. If the MJO continues its trend of moving towards cold phases, going to be some wild flip flopping. Jax's article notes what many here have spoken about...the MJO has two active areas 2/3 and 5/6. They are creating a null phase when really it is not in the null phase at all. It is two areas of conflicting convection that the net balance results in a null. Null to me is inactivity. This is two areas of strong activity that are creating a false null. To me, the Weeklies match the EPS, and then during week 3 revert to a western trough. Really seems to me like we are just going to see strong troughs roll through every 7-8 days with varying levels of cold(some Arctic and some Pacific origin stuff). IMHO, fairly washed out(no pun intended) look.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Agree. The EPS has a weak to very weak HB block late in the run. Problem is the AK vortex is present. Had that during the second half of January where the cold was locked out of that blocking pattern, and we had to deal with Pacific air. That is pretty much what the EPS at 12z depicts. Plenty of time for that to change though. What would be nice is for that AK vortex to dislodge and get forced under that block.
  16. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS looks similar to 0z which means that 0z is now less of a hiccup. The surface is quite warm even though the 500 pattern looks good. That has been a real pain all winter in terms of getting patterns correct. 500 patterns have not always matched the surface temp anomalies. Sometimes surface modeling has led the way and sometimes (maybe more often) the 500 pattern has led the way. IF that 500 MJO is correct and continues to move towards cold phase of the MJO, we should see the EPS and other modeling begin to doubled down on cold after d10. Will be interesting to see when and if that happens. But for now, getting a decent 500 patterns is a win after d10.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Systems have a lot more juice during March. Get an active weather pattern like we have right now with some transient cold shots and things can be interesting.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Certainly is not a warm signal at this point. I wouldn't put too much stock in anything outside of 3 weeks right now though. We are getting to the time of year where the Euro starts to become human again - shoulder season. Seems like the month of Decembers has warmed and March has cooled during the past decade. So, a cool March would not surprise me. If forced to make a call, I would go BN...but that is a hunch and not a forecast. If La Nina kicks-in at some point, we will likely see a large hemispheric shift in the jet next fall...but could be earlier. I just don't want a hot and dry summer, and I somehow can't shake the idea that might be about what we are going to get...very hot August and September. Seems like these rainy time frames in NE TN are often followed by an almost instant turning-off of the spigot. Though, really it has been a rainy pattern for about a year. But I think once this rainy pattern ends, it will be abrupt. To clarify, I am just talking temps in terms of a potential change down the road. Rains seems to be a constant. Choice are warm/rainy spring or cold/rainy spring.
  19. Carvers Gap
    As for a large scale pattern change later this month....just kicking that around. Notice that the MJO forecast ends about where the last head fake began. LOL. Still, when you look at the yellow lines(ensemble member spread), many of them are headed into cold phases. Get the models and the MJO singing the same song(even though late winter), that is a really good sign.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Had a leaky chimney. Got up there and fixed it yesterday evening. Very thankful that is done and fingers crossed that the new sealant works! 6" of rain by Thursday. Not good!
  21. Carvers Gap
    These are fairly significant trends in the ECMF MJO as it almost makes it into phase 8. At this point, the MJO is beginning to hint at a large scale pattern change and not just a window of opportunity. JUST using the ECMF MJO(there is another version ECMM which is slightly less bullish which uses climatology...ECMF is just the pure ensemble run I "think"). This actually has support from both the GEFS which is likely overly amped, but headed in the same direction. It also lends support to what John was saying earlier in the thread that once the MJO hits phase seven, it gets cold after that w a lag possibly built in. So, the signal for cold during week 4 of February is now a bit stronger IMHO. Let's see if it holds and trends even better. The GEFS has been sort of correct in the higher amplitude of 5, but seems out there with high amplitude 6/7. So, a mini-victory for the GEFS up to this point. Either way, both the ECMF and GEFS are heading towards better phases in about ten days or sooner. That is also supported by ensemble runs hinting at changes. Always good to be aware that sometimes modeling can jump the gun....but thought this was worth a share. If true, this would likely provide us with a potential window of more than just 2-3 days but counterweighted by climatology being less favorable by the day at that timeframe. Good news to see modeling hustling out of "bad" phases of the MJO.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The 0z EPS has a pretty strong signal now around 288 of a trough moving into the East. That is a new look. Let's see if it holds at 12z. Has a trough in Alaska as well. Looks like an ensemble with two camps: Alaska and the eastern US. The Eastern US camp was barely there yesterday at 12z. Again, my guess is that these troughs will have little staying power. My hope would be is that one scenario that ensembles are seeing is a direct discharge of the AK vortex into the eastern US. As, we saw with the last one, a deep trough with even marginally cold air can be really potent. BTW, I miscalculated the trough frequency yesterday. The last trough rolled through on the 7th. Next one appears to be the 14th. If one believes the global ensembles, next one is the 22nd. So, about every 7-8 days a shot of cold is modeled to arrive with the 14th trough being more like a post storm front. As noted above by other posters, the other global ensembles have a strong signal for a pattern relaxation during the last week of February. Can that help us? IDK, that is late in the game. However, it is getting to be shoulder season and this is a time of year where anything can happen, not excluding severe followed by winter. Wavelengths are changing up. If we manage to get a non-hostile MJO, changing wavelengths, an active storm pattern, and cold periodically into the East...that is not a bad combo. Obviously by the end of the month some are really fighting climatology and time of day then really matters. There is a history of late season storms from time to time in this area...so something to watch. If we want to get in the game truly, we want to see the EPS speed up its look.
  23. Carvers Gap
    AK vortex seems legit. However, seeing some signs of a trough going into the eastern US later this month. Need to really watch the MJO next few days. If it heads across the COD towards eight, might signal another trough. Jax has that noted above. Would be interesting to see a trough show up about the time the Alaska vortex gets dislodged. Most ensembles are hinting at a trough around the 24th in the East in addition to the 14th. Looks like a cold air intrusion about every ten days. At any right, mowed my yard today and started getting the garden ready. Went ahead and worked on one of our chimneys today that had been showing some signs of leaking. Wasn't planning on that, but sometimes things show up unexpectedly. I mowed the yard, because I had to take the mower out to get the ladder for the roof. LOL. Figured if I had it out, might as well just mow.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Just sifting through some of the MJO plots on the CPC site, one trend I notice...most of those MJO members end up with trajectories pointing at cold phases. Something to watch. I wonder if the GFS and CMC have caught that trend early and are maybe ahead of the game a bit. Will be interesting to see if the 12z Euro will eventually break down the eastern ridge like it did at 0z. Would be nice to have only 100 hours of a SER vs 10 days. Seems to me that the Southwest eternal cut-off may well be a partial error. If so, makes sense for the trough to get kicked eastward periodically with a western ridge popping from time to time as it has to fight a potentially low amplitude MJO.
  25. Carvers Gap
    I am hoping that changing wavelengths will spare us further events like that. Looks like we may well have one more rainy system this week though. This weather pattern probably is a wild one. Flood warnings and WWAs existing at the same time in the same region is an active pattern. LOL. Good call on the weekend snow, BTW.
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