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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Check that...was in a hurry. Trough is out of the West and in the northern Plains but shallow.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I still remain unconvinced modeling has the pattern handled pafter the ridge early next week. The 12z EPS again tries to push 2m temps BN after 300. The trough is basically gone in the lower 48. 500 looks zonal but temps look cold then.
  3. Carvers Gap
    And if they get an appreciable amounts of snow at elevation on Friday and Saturday...going to be a mess with that much rain hitting it. Whew. No fishing in the mountains for weeks!
  4. Carvers Gap
    And you all know, we are going to hit La Nina and this spigot is just going to shut-off and go bone dry for months - probably late summer into fall.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Thankful for the downslope. Just 9.5" of rain over the next ten days. LOL. You folks on the Plateau are going to need an ark.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Definitely not good modeling trends after this weekend. MJO regions are just lit, and have been all winter. Zero sign of that letting up during the next two weeks. We noted during the summer that was a big risk, and it certainly has been a problem all winter. Jeff hit the nail on the head with the IOD flaring up. Like throwing gasoline on a fire in the warm phases of the MJO. Really there are a few ways that we can still catch a storm: 1. Changing wavelengths later this month and into March. 2. Cold overwhelms the pattern(not seeing that in any shape or form at this moment) Will give it a few more days and then time to turn my attention to the garden. @Stovepipe been a great winter for turnips. Mine are still alive. Heck, I have a lot of stuff still alive since fall. Fava beans will go in once the ground dries out a bit. Seeds are sitting on my counter ready to go. Going to start my seeds this year for tomatoes and peppers. Been a while since I have done that, but we are losing places that have offered good diversity. So, going to get back to growing my own stuff.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS at 500 is much different at 500 that it was at 0z. For all intents and purposes it has removed the western trough by the end of the run. We talked this morning about the how modeling is all over the place with the MJO. Makes since that there is some movement on the GEFS which was on its own. By no means is that discussion a success based on the 18z GEFS. I don't trust that model. However, the GEPS at 12z was nearly there, and the EPS is showing cold pressing. Now, not entirely sure that the new look is better as the trough retreats into Canada. However, with cold in eastern Canada, it may press with cold high pressure at the surface. I still don't think that pattern is done adjusting after the 10th.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I have sometimes seen something back into the front range In Colorado. But E TX/Lousiana to New Mexico is a first. Add in two ice storms to go with our snow this weekend, and Happy Hour has yet again lived up to its name yet again.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Is it that feature at 300 over MS/AL moving westward...like to New Mexico?
  10. Carvers Gap
    And the GFS isn't done yet. LOL
  11. Carvers Gap
    Unless I am wrong, the AO on the Euro run is going to go from near record positive values and then crash into the negative range.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for the great commentary. Yeah, I am not sold on the Euro solution...just noting there is some uncertainty after the 15th or so. I am actually not convinced any model has the actual pattern evolution nailed down yet, and that is understandable at this range. Just looking for a window of 2-3 days at a time. The base-warm pattern is unlikely to be broken prior to the end of winter unless the TPV, as you note, gets involved. Interesting to watch for sure. But no matter how Feb goes, you have the Chiefs to get you through and then it is March Madness!
  13. Carvers Gap
    See, I think it is not an actual null phase. I think it is 2/3 canceling out 6. That has not worked well for us this winter as 6 usually has usually won that battle.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Want to see some wild differences...take a look at the 12z GFS and the 12z GEFS regarding surface temp anomalies after d10. It should be noted that they are basically different models as the GFS has the update and the GFS operational is at range. It may very well be that both models are in error. The 12z GFS MSLP anomaly is hilariously cold after d10. The 12z GEFS is a mega torch which may or may not be based on an erroneous MJO(see above post). Both extremes may very well be incorrect, but at least American modeling has covered the ranges of possibilities for this time frame. The only thing I find even remotely interesting is that the CMC has a similar MSLP(to the GFS) anomaly as its runs ends. Other than that...very warm vs very cold. What could go wrong?
  15. Carvers Gap
    ...and one last note. The above figures are used as examples of where the pattern could go and are not intended to be gospel. When looking at medium and LR patterns, it is understood that modeling can and will likely change. So, looking at trends, similarities, and differences can give us some idea of the most likely path(s) that the weather might take. So, view those comments as general observations and kicking around potential. As much as modeling has bounced around during the past 2-3 weeks...that also has to be kept in mind.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Gonna need a bigger glass if you go look at the GEFS MJO. Seriously, not sure I have seen this much spread on the MJO in a long time. The EMON takes it a low amplitude into 5/6 for just a few days and then heads to the COD like the BOMM. The GEFS goes almost off the charts into phase 6 with no COD. The BOMM from a few days ago is more like the EMON, so I cautiously roll with those two. But there is basically a vastly different MJO solution for each model. The CFSv2 even goes into phase 7 after its COD. With the MJO driving the bus, having wildly different solutions may very well cause some modeling issues after say the 14th.
  17. Carvers Gap
    6z Euro snow accums looks slim for the 7th, but it might not be picking up those well. Looks like there is a brief period of snow showers modeled for the eastern half of the state though, so it does have that.
  18. Carvers Gap
    GFS at 6z looks pretty warm to me after the 10th. That said, modeling has periodically been picking up on a brief cool down sometime between the 16th-19th. Again, I am not super convinced of what is being shown after the 15th. We will keep watching the MJO...rally cap folks probably need to just pull for that model to hold the MJO in the COD.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Regarding the even on the 9th(edit), the Euro looked really good for the Plateau w snow amounts of around 6". I think getting some lift on that backside wave will help with marginal temps might produce enough precip to cool the air column. Looks like it also falls at night. I am not convinced that it doesn't trend north, but it at least gives us something else to track in addition to the wrap-around stuff on wave 3. I would think areas along the TN/KY border and NE TN / SW VA have a shot at both. For those new to the forum...yes, we all know these are not slam dunks.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Lots of great stuff in here from MRX this morning... @Math/Met, low end mountain wave event? Wednesday night into Thursday, the cold front slows down due to the aforementioned strong high east in the Atlantic. This forces the low to take sharp turn north up toward the Great Lakes which orients the cold frontal boundary south-southwest to north-northeast. The atmospheric mean flow will be parallel to this boundary and heavy rainfall will occur along and east of this boundary. So the placement of the boundary will be very important in regards to how much rainfall our area will receive on Thursday. As of now, it looks like the areas that have the greatest chance for seeing heavy rainfall will be east of I-75 and moreso from southwest NC up along the spine of the Appalachians and into northeast TN. The heaviest rain will occur further east just on the other side of the Appalachians. Also during this time, Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon, the 850 mb jet will strengthen to around 50 Kts which will allow the higher elevations to see some gusty winds. There is a brief period Thursday morning where we could see some mountain waves but the winds will be mostly aligned parallel to the terrain through the duration of this event. Rainfall Amounts: Wednesday night through Thursday morning, most areas will see rainfall amounts around 1 inch with up to 2 inches possible across SWNC. On Thursday, areas along the eastern mountains will see up to another inch of rainfall and up to two more inches across SWNC. So from Wednesday through Thursday night, most locations will see rainfall amounts between 1.5 to 2.5 inches. Southwest North Carolina will see amounts between 3 and 4 inches with isolated amounts up to 5 inches. No headlines will be issued during this forecast as the heavy rain doesn`t start until Wednesday night. We will wait and see what the next round of model data shows before any decisions are made on any watch products. The boundary pushes further east Thursday night into Friday with colder air moving in behind the front. Any remaining moisture will change over to snow across the higher elevations with precip ending by early Friday afternoon. Another system moves in Friday night into Saturday as a shortwave trough swings across the area from out of the northwest. This system has the chance to bring more snowfall to the higher elevations but it`s too far out for any specifics regarding snowfall amounts at this time. Conditions clear out Saturday night into Sunday with another system moving in late Monday.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Of note, the 0z Euro has the event on the 9th again. The 6z GFS has the same system. It a small but powerful vortex diving into the back of the departing trough.
  22. Carvers Gap
    It has been a busy few days, so just now settling in a bit. The 12z EPS control had an almost identical run to the 18z GFS. While I think it is an outside shot...here is what I am seeing on those two runs. The EPO ridge builds in, kicks the western trough eastward, the EPO ridge retrogrades slightly, trough tucks West, and gets kicked out again. IMHO, that has a chance at being the pattern which is better than a wall-to-wall ridge. When this pattern showed up in early December, I felt strongly we were going to be warm for a long time and banged that drum pretty loudly. I think this time that ridge tucking West is a lot closer call than what was shown in early December. That EPO ridge pushing into Alaska will be felt by that trough from time to time. So, while we are in a base warm pattern in the East this winter...cold fronts can come eastward - especially as wavelengths change-up.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The irony of that run is that the -EPO finally did what most of us think it would do during a normal year...it kicked that trough(which forms around Feb 10th) out of the West after 4-5 days. The ensemble does not support that, but I still don't think they run off the same core. I am not convinced that western trough holds. It may, but it may not. It is not like LR modeling has been overly accurate this winter. But not getting wrapped up in GFS at range. It's just that it shows what can happen if the EPO ridge is being modeled incorrectly. If it pushes into the coast by a fraction on the global scale, that trough kicks East. All other teleconnections were terrible on the 18z, but it does demonstrate what the EPO can do if positioned correctly. The MJO is driving the bus, but if it ever decides to let up or stay in the COD...if we have a -EPO, it would be the second most influential driver for MBY. Yeah, I hope we don't waste a potent trough this weekend. Hopefully, we can score something out of it!
  24. Carvers Gap
    Tough call. I think the snow in western North Carolina last week proves a well placed slp or wave can produce snow with marginal temps. We really need it to dig below our latitude on modeling. Those things have a tendency to trend northward over time. Another option is for the wave to do what occurred on the CMC which is to form a storm. This weekend's trough is not benign. Not all all troughs during winter produce, but there is a reason folks watch them. Details matter, and we don't have enough for the 9-10th time frame yet. Definitely worth tracking at this range though.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Something I noticed on the CPC MJO site...The MJO is all over the place regarding various models. The models that I trust the most are low amplitude warm phases for 8-10 days beginning in around 5-7 days and then COD again. When the MJO goes into the COD, that seems to cut the legs out from under the eastern ridge. Something to watch in modeling. Again, most of us are just looking for windows where the pattern might relax enough for that to happen. Also, the forecast record AO has nowhere to go but down. So, eyeballing the timeframe around the 20th for another window for winter weather potential. Obviously that is not set in stone. Again, I am not sure I trust modeling right now with the MJO all over the places. We will be fighting phase the rest of the winter unless something changes. Also, the trend to really build heights over Alaska is something to watch as well. A -EPO seems to trump everything but phase 6 of the MJO.
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