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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The cutoff is the problem along with how the northern stream does or does not interact with it. That was part of that long post from the other day. (I took that post down as it just sounded too much like another post I had read....)Combine that with the MJO moving at higher amplitude into warm phases but moving more quickly towards colder phases...not sure what is up, but I welcome the change. Poor MJOs can be overcome by cold. Plenty of precedent for that, but it doesn't happen often. Anyway, very interesting to see the operationals budge and the GEFS. Now don't get me wrong, I don't trust the GEFS as far as I can throw it....but model changes on ensembles do sometimes indicate flux. Anyway, will interesting to watch. I will not be surprised to see modeling flip back to warm or double down on cold. But both are worthy of consideration at this point. We will get some clarity in future runs. 12z was such a tease.
  2. Carvers Gap
    That run of the 12z Euro is no less wonky than the 12z CMC or 12z GFS. The 500 maps after 200 hours don't even look like the surface. LOL. IMHO, this is yet another bounce back and forth with what to do with the Southwest cutoff. That is a western ridge at the surface and an eastern trough after 200. Something is afoot. Not sure what...but something has changed at 12z. Might be temporary. But something has been inputed that has changed the surface pattern. We have seen that before, but worth watching.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Look at the surface late in the run...that is not warm. Right?
  4. Carvers Gap
    The correction(not idea of temporary or permanent) on the Euro at 132 is significant. It actually leaves the cutoff in the Southwest. It opens the door for the next potential winter event if true. This cutoff has been a thorn on modeling for almost a couple of weeks. It has yet to be sorted out. I doubt the 12z GFS is likely not valid as it is too progressive, but I also have my doubts about the Euro as it has a really tendency to dig too much into the West. The problem is there is very little middle ground. Either the cut-off moves along and doesn't dig into the West OR the northern stream uses that cut-off to dig the trough into the West OR the northern stream leaves the cutoff and digs into the East. I am not so sure that the Euro didn't just bend pretty heavily to the other operational models. At 222, the Euro has a 1045 surface high in the Midwest.
  5. Carvers Gap
    And the 12z Euro has the 132 storm seen on the GFS. Again, like this weekend's third wave, just looking for placement. BTW, the Euro has 2-3" of snow over northern sections of middle TN for the trough event that we have been following.
  6. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Exactly. Why not? Right.
  7. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS obviously won't flip like the GFS(basically two different models), but there are new features on that 12z GEFS run. A stout PNA ridge has formed post 300 w a trough plopped right over the Aleutians. Like I said, not sure what has changed, but there is definitely something different so far. I do not look for the Euro/EPS to change quickly if at all. Like I said, it corners slowly. If something is truly afoot, one would likely see it change over several runs in small increments. But overall, pretty shocking to see a model flip like the 12z GFS just did...basically wall-to-wall eastern troughs. At this point, I can't completely toss it since it has support from other operationals and some support at the surface on the GEFS and at 500 after 300 hours. Trust me, I would like to toss it...just not yet. Right now, I consider this a one-off suite of runs...but will keep watching. Would not be the first time modeling has flipped like this...usually it is from a great pattern to one that stinks. So for now, it is an anomaly.
  8. Carvers Gap
    So far, the 12z ICON, GFS, and CMC are singing the same tune. Looks like a cold front of some sort is being picked-up around the 14th. Only thing I can possibly assume is that something has changed with the MJO. It is definitely different on the ECMF which is making a bee line to 7 before fading off late. Keep in mind, that model was in the COD prior or low amp. If the high amplitude GEFS is in "half right" as the Euro has caved there...maybe modeling is seeing the MJO move out of 6 quicker? That just doesn't account for the flip early in the run. Maybe just be three models making a hiccup....If the MJO is not going to stay in warmer phases longer...the EPO might hold in place?
  9. Carvers Gap
    Go to the 12z GFS and look at hour 342...that is a monster western ridge? Probably going to roll eastward, but...LOL...that is crazy.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The best I can tell is that there are hints of a PNA ridge and the EPO is in tighter. This forces the trough out of the West and creates a more progressive pattern where there are troughs in the East. Guessing something inputed(model data) has changed something on those two models. I don't bite on (edit..lol)one off model runs, but I do take notice. The 12z CMC and GFS are not that different at all.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The CMC basically just did the same thing. Not going to get into the "is it real" stuff. Good chance it won't be. However, anyone care to venture a guess on why the sudden change? Just talking model stuff and not forecasts....
  12. Carvers Gap
    Let's see if the CMC follows what the GFS just did. This trend began at 0z on both the GFS and CMC, but have been waiting to see if the operationals doubled down at 12z . The CMC was cold at 0z late in the run. And we all know the rules...so I don't have to restate them. We will watch the 12z suite and see if the Euro shows any hint of support. Just a little surprised to see modeling flipping around well inside of d10. It it isn't real, we just get a good laugh.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Don't worry. I am used to it. LOL.
  14. Carvers Gap
    It has another threat around 240. Not sure I believe that run, but that is a lot of cold(well inside of 240).
  15. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS is a major break from continuity very early in the run....
  16. Carvers Gap
    So did the 12z GFS just eliminate the ridge(edit) inside of 240 for the most part? It has another snow threat inside of 150.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Check that...was in a hurry. Trough is out of the West and in the northern Plains but shallow.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I still remain unconvinced modeling has the pattern handled pafter the ridge early next week. The 12z EPS again tries to push 2m temps BN after 300. The trough is basically gone in the lower 48. 500 looks zonal but temps look cold then.
  19. Carvers Gap
    And if they get an appreciable amounts of snow at elevation on Friday and Saturday...going to be a mess with that much rain hitting it. Whew. No fishing in the mountains for weeks!
  20. Carvers Gap
    And you all know, we are going to hit La Nina and this spigot is just going to shut-off and go bone dry for months - probably late summer into fall.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Thankful for the downslope. Just 9.5" of rain over the next ten days. LOL. You folks on the Plateau are going to need an ark.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Definitely not good modeling trends after this weekend. MJO regions are just lit, and have been all winter. Zero sign of that letting up during the next two weeks. We noted during the summer that was a big risk, and it certainly has been a problem all winter. Jeff hit the nail on the head with the IOD flaring up. Like throwing gasoline on a fire in the warm phases of the MJO. Really there are a few ways that we can still catch a storm: 1. Changing wavelengths later this month and into March. 2. Cold overwhelms the pattern(not seeing that in any shape or form at this moment) Will give it a few more days and then time to turn my attention to the garden. @Stovepipe been a great winter for turnips. Mine are still alive. Heck, I have a lot of stuff still alive since fall. Fava beans will go in once the ground dries out a bit. Seeds are sitting on my counter ready to go. Going to start my seeds this year for tomatoes and peppers. Been a while since I have done that, but we are losing places that have offered good diversity. So, going to get back to growing my own stuff.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS at 500 is much different at 500 that it was at 0z. For all intents and purposes it has removed the western trough by the end of the run. We talked this morning about the how modeling is all over the place with the MJO. Makes since that there is some movement on the GEFS which was on its own. By no means is that discussion a success based on the 18z GEFS. I don't trust that model. However, the GEPS at 12z was nearly there, and the EPS is showing cold pressing. Now, not entirely sure that the new look is better as the trough retreats into Canada. However, with cold in eastern Canada, it may press with cold high pressure at the surface. I still don't think that pattern is done adjusting after the 10th.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I have sometimes seen something back into the front range In Colorado. But E TX/Lousiana to New Mexico is a first. Add in two ice storms to go with our snow this weekend, and Happy Hour has yet again lived up to its name yet again.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Is it that feature at 300 over MS/AL moving westward...like to New Mexico?
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