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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    To tag onto Holston's post above and to illustrate the strength of this trough that is passing through...here is the advisory/warning product map for the United States this morning. Winter weather advisories stretch from NE MS through middle/ west TN at lower elevations w higher elevation products issued for the Plateau an eastern mountains. Flooding was experienced in many areas which was then followed by light snow accumulations. This morning snow was was falling in Kingsport while simultaneously we were experiencing some of the worst urban flooding in recent memory. The flooding and winter threats were discussed extensively for several days on this forum in specificity by many. Again, a great job by everyone.
  2. Carvers Gap
    This is why I don't go anywhere without the EPS. When we started talking about the trough this weekend, it was ~15 days ago. IMHO, pretty good work by this forum working through the pros and cons to the look. This is Holston's EPS loop from 12z on January 23rd... Nailing a trough placement from 15 days out is impressive. It may have a cold bias due to the anomalous warmth from the past several weeks, but it did very well with this trough at 500. Also, it should be noted that the GFS/CMC combo did fairly well with this. Even more impressive is the trough is lifting out at the end of this run, and the components for next week's western cutoff are descending southward along the spine of the Rockies. While modeling has been less than stellar this year, this was a good look. Interestingly, I will dig back through some more posts later, but I believe the Euro operational erroneously dug this trough into the Southwest and kept it there. (edit...The main error with the EPS is that its timing from fifteen days ago was maybe 24-30 hours off...which is not bad at all from that range.). But the idea of three waves running a front (w the last being our shot) has been on models for more many, many runs.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Looks to me like another cold front on Feb 14th. My guess is the Euro is under-modeling that system if real. Remember how the Euro backed off temps for last night's and today's system(and into the weekend) to the point it barely had any negative anomalies at all? Here is what it has now for hour 12. Below are the 6z initialized temps for hour 12. Departures range from 5 to 20 degrees. Negative departures(not as cold as below) are forecast to remain in place until Sunday evening. Major differences in modeling begin as early as mid-week next week. The GFS and CMC still handle the cutoff in the Southwest much differently. The Euro(and this is an opinion) is having issues with that cutoff in the Southwest(edit...a well known bias, but also sometimes verifies). Is that causing it to struggle in the mid-range? Plenty of arguments in either direction. The MJO heading into phase 5 this morning supports it. But if I was going to take any model against all others(which it is currently), it would be the Euro/EPS combo. That said, IMHO it is again under-doing a potential trough centered around the 14th. I think it might not hurt to blend the Euro op and the GFS/CMC operationals. The first is likely too warm and the other two are likely too cold. Next few runs will tell me if that hunch is correct.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Got a brief but moderate band of snow here. Rooftops are white. Glad to see some you all did pretty well. Always a minor miracle to get snow right smack in the middle of a warm winter. Looks like snow showers are in NE TN for the morning with much of the best lift heading for the mountains w this wave. Another healthier round of snow is in middle TN heading ESE.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Beautiful look and exactly why we have been tracking this for so long. Good luck to everyone in middle TN and to everyone up on the Plateau.
  6. Carvers Gap
    And now the 18z GEFS has matched the operational. Not getting too hyped about that, but interesting for sure to see large scale changes to the 500 pattern at relatively close range on an ensemble. Gotta see the EPS bend before serious consideration, but that is another model flipping a good chunk of its run.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Definitely an element of a +PNA on the GFS after the 10th.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS again has the cold front and the storm on the ~14th. After that it wises up and has more zonal and some western trough after 300. So, looks like we may fight off the SER until after the 14th? Still don't think modeling after the 10th is nailed down. Pretty crazy given that is only about four days away. Still have my doubts on how much and how long any western trough can hang in there. The ridge pattern might be getting pushed back for once?
  9. Carvers Gap
    So the 12z ICON, GFS, CMC, and Euro(much colder) show fairly significant changes at the surface after Feb 10th. The GEFS looks much different after 300. Not sure a soul trusts the GEFS at LR anymore nor should they. GEPS and EPS at 12z not biting, though the EPS control looks very GFS like around 300. I am going to need to see another model suite before giving more than passing consideration that the global operationals are onto something, especially without EPS support. Worth watching for sure and interesting to discuss...but going to need modeling to back-up those earlier runs. Ensembles will be slower to change, and that is worth noting, but the EPS did not budge. Time will tell.
  10. Carvers Gap
    There are winter weather advisories up for portions of middle TN now. Holston has even started a thread for that event. I don't think anything is a given this winter, but I think some accumulation is likely in northern middle and the Plateau. However, people in Nashville know the routine. Not been an easy score there for a while.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The cutoff is the problem along with how the northern stream does or does not interact with it. That was part of that long post from the other day. (I took that post down as it just sounded too much like another post I had read....)Combine that with the MJO moving at higher amplitude into warm phases but moving more quickly towards colder phases...not sure what is up, but I welcome the change. Poor MJOs can be overcome by cold. Plenty of precedent for that, but it doesn't happen often. Anyway, very interesting to see the operationals budge and the GEFS. Now don't get me wrong, I don't trust the GEFS as far as I can throw it....but model changes on ensembles do sometimes indicate flux. Anyway, will interesting to watch. I will not be surprised to see modeling flip back to warm or double down on cold. But both are worthy of consideration at this point. We will get some clarity in future runs. 12z was such a tease.
  12. Carvers Gap
    That run of the 12z Euro is no less wonky than the 12z CMC or 12z GFS. The 500 maps after 200 hours don't even look like the surface. LOL. IMHO, this is yet another bounce back and forth with what to do with the Southwest cutoff. That is a western ridge at the surface and an eastern trough after 200. Something is afoot. Not sure what...but something has changed at 12z. Might be temporary. But something has been inputed that has changed the surface pattern. We have seen that before, but worth watching.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Look at the surface late in the run...that is not warm. Right?
  14. Carvers Gap
    The correction(not idea of temporary or permanent) on the Euro at 132 is significant. It actually leaves the cutoff in the Southwest. It opens the door for the next potential winter event if true. This cutoff has been a thorn on modeling for almost a couple of weeks. It has yet to be sorted out. I doubt the 12z GFS is likely not valid as it is too progressive, but I also have my doubts about the Euro as it has a really tendency to dig too much into the West. The problem is there is very little middle ground. Either the cut-off moves along and doesn't dig into the West OR the northern stream uses that cut-off to dig the trough into the West OR the northern stream leaves the cutoff and digs into the East. I am not so sure that the Euro didn't just bend pretty heavily to the other operational models. At 222, the Euro has a 1045 surface high in the Midwest.
  15. Carvers Gap
    And the 12z Euro has the 132 storm seen on the GFS. Again, like this weekend's third wave, just looking for placement. BTW, the Euro has 2-3" of snow over northern sections of middle TN for the trough event that we have been following.
  16. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Exactly. Why not? Right.
  17. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS obviously won't flip like the GFS(basically two different models), but there are new features on that 12z GEFS run. A stout PNA ridge has formed post 300 w a trough plopped right over the Aleutians. Like I said, not sure what has changed, but there is definitely something different so far. I do not look for the Euro/EPS to change quickly if at all. Like I said, it corners slowly. If something is truly afoot, one would likely see it change over several runs in small increments. But overall, pretty shocking to see a model flip like the 12z GFS just did...basically wall-to-wall eastern troughs. At this point, I can't completely toss it since it has support from other operationals and some support at the surface on the GEFS and at 500 after 300 hours. Trust me, I would like to toss it...just not yet. Right now, I consider this a one-off suite of runs...but will keep watching. Would not be the first time modeling has flipped like this...usually it is from a great pattern to one that stinks. So for now, it is an anomaly.
  18. Carvers Gap
    So far, the 12z ICON, GFS, and CMC are singing the same tune. Looks like a cold front of some sort is being picked-up around the 14th. Only thing I can possibly assume is that something has changed with the MJO. It is definitely different on the ECMF which is making a bee line to 7 before fading off late. Keep in mind, that model was in the COD prior or low amp. If the high amplitude GEFS is in "half right" as the Euro has caved there...maybe modeling is seeing the MJO move out of 6 quicker? That just doesn't account for the flip early in the run. Maybe just be three models making a hiccup....If the MJO is not going to stay in warmer phases longer...the EPO might hold in place?
  19. Carvers Gap
    Go to the 12z GFS and look at hour 342...that is a monster western ridge? Probably going to roll eastward, but...LOL...that is crazy.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The best I can tell is that there are hints of a PNA ridge and the EPO is in tighter. This forces the trough out of the West and creates a more progressive pattern where there are troughs in the East. Guessing something inputed(model data) has changed something on those two models. I don't bite on (edit..lol)one off model runs, but I do take notice. The 12z CMC and GFS are not that different at all.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The CMC basically just did the same thing. Not going to get into the "is it real" stuff. Good chance it won't be. However, anyone care to venture a guess on why the sudden change? Just talking model stuff and not forecasts....
  22. Carvers Gap
    Let's see if the CMC follows what the GFS just did. This trend began at 0z on both the GFS and CMC, but have been waiting to see if the operationals doubled down at 12z . The CMC was cold at 0z late in the run. And we all know the rules...so I don't have to restate them. We will watch the 12z suite and see if the Euro shows any hint of support. Just a little surprised to see modeling flipping around well inside of d10. It it isn't real, we just get a good laugh.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Don't worry. I am used to it. LOL.
  24. Carvers Gap
    It has another threat around 240. Not sure I believe that run, but that is a lot of cold(well inside of 240).
  25. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS is a major break from continuity very early in the run....
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