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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Great short term discussion. To add to the LR, the 12z EPS and Weeklies(today's run) are not warm after d10. Euro Weeklies imply that we will have BN temps pushing eastward on a regular basis through at least the first three weeks of March. So we have the window this Thursday in which cold lasts from Feb 19-23. We have the window which potentially begins around Feb 27 and lasts for an undetermined amount of time(might be longer than the 2-4 day windows that we have been getting lately). Take with a huge grain of salt. Pattern change? Maybe, but more likely just a relaxation similar to last November.
  2. Carvers Gap
    6z GFS trended north as well, but not quite to Euro levels. As John noted, good look on the Euro...just very light. Wonder if we can get the precip shield to expand without the cold being pushed out in response?
  3. Carvers Gap
    I agree. Think that system is coming north due to that? That is my thinking.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I think the question right now is whether we can get an overrunning event without pushing the cold out of the way. Have to think it is possible, but is it likely? Not sure. Certainly recent trends are brining precip back northward to where it was originally modeled. One more jog north and we might be tracking something. Remains to be seen if that happens. I think we see maybe 1-2 more jogs before it locks in, and then one last jog within 48 hours. Also, very possible that modeling sees a colder air mass and presses it southward. Pretty much everything is on the table with this. LOL. I suspect it keeps coming north, but will be interesting to watch at 12z and again at 0z tonight.
  5. Carvers Gap
    6z GFS came north as well. The 6z GEFS mean has bumped up along the border of AL and TN to around 1.5" of snow. Let's see if it keeps trending.
  6. Carvers Gap
    18z EPS mean is on the left.
  7. Carvers Gap
    18z EPS mean also allows the 6hour qpf shield to move north as well. Pretty big move. Let's see if the 0z supports it.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, thanks. Fixed it. LOL. Would have been a heckuva call ten months out...
  9. Carvers Gap
    It is worth noting that ensembles beginning around Dec 20 are cold for about 6 of the next 10 days after that...sometimes quite cold. Cold bias is possibly and even likely in play. I think the Feb(edit) 20th cold shot is likely. The immense surge of cold modeled around the 27/28th is probably feeling some bias. Still, the 500 pattern on ensembles(operationals for the first one) portrays two strong cold shots. Again, how long is that second shot going to hold? No idea, and not sure ensembles give us many clues either. I was not overly impressed by the MJO this morning. PSU noted in the the MA thread that phase 8 is not really where we want to be at this time of year, and I concur. He noted that we need it in 1, 2, and 3, and I concur with that as well. So, seeing the MJO bend away from phase 8 is likely a plus. Looks to me like a null signal(probably a false null) with some potential to trend away from warmer phases on the ECMF w the ECMM less enthusiastic. It is a bit surprising to see the LR models so cold in the LR...colder than the usual bias. If they miss this time, verification will not be pretty as they are quite cold. If they verify, it will feel like winter during both of those windows.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Could be two camps or it could be a -EPO ridge being undercut w blocking over the top. Verbatim, that is a good look, but it is way out there so that likely changes some. Looks like two more windows before the month is up - d6ish and d12ish. I can't decide if I like the digging into the Southwest around the 27th. It may be another error. That said, if it digs that much that could be a big storm coming east right behind a cutter. Kind of has that look. When one looks at the gif above, storms coming in around LA have a tendency to exit at the same latitude. So, we might get a cutter but the next storm might exit at the same latitude as Los Angeles. Seems a "cutter followed by a coastal" type of look as the trough pushes eastward. I can say this...much more interesting than December and January where we had virtually nothing to track or even discuss other than d10+ maps. Right now we at least have something to watch at d5-6 and have had two recent snow threads.. LOL.
  11. Carvers Gap
    As for the LR, the EPS has had one variation or another of cold beginning around Feb 20th. Seems like it has finally settled on Feb 20-24th as the next cold shot and is potentially hinting at another around the 28th. At 0z, the EPS 10day mean for the 20-30th(generally speaking of the entire forum area) remains normal to slightly BN for temps w precip BN with the exception of Memphis. Again, as has been noted on multiple occasions...there appears to be a cold front of varying strength rolling through about every 5-6 days. Is the pattern after the 20th a pattern change? Not sure. There is a strong cold shot, sharp warm-up, and another cold from modeled in that 10day period beginning on the 20th. Changing wavelengths could cause a prolonged pattern relaxation like they did in November. I do think the SER is going to fight as long as phase 6 is sitting on top of AN SSTs. The trough on the 0z EPS is at d12 right now for that second shot of cold. It is tough to tell if it is a pattern change because the model only runs through d15. I think a prolonged pattern relaxation of 10-14 days is certainly within the realm of possibility - meaning a colder pattern in the East. It very well could be that we are going to enter a time frame where there is more balance. As for the system next week...right now it is suppressed. The Euro trended slightly north with its precip shield at 0z. The 0z CMC has more interaction between the northern and southern stream which allows precip to spread into southern areas of the sub forum. I will not be surprised to see this come north over time. Still 5-6 days before that event even gets here. That is 20 more runs of the GFS and 10 more runs of the Euro operational before verification. My guess is that there are a few more turns(maybe not huge ones...but trending still very possible one way or another) at this range.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Modeling has indeed been pretty bad this winter, but the EPS has done quite well during February with the 500 pattern. Temp bias towards cold is noted. The EPS hit the Feb 5-10th pattern from almost 15 days out. It also had a very warm period from the 10-20th with a few hiccups to cold, but eventually retained the original warm-up. The GEFS is always cold after d10...and is about worthless right now because of it at that range. I am basically using the GEFS to see if it agrees with the EPS. Both models have a cold bias, but the EPS seems to be locating features at 500 reasonably well at range with understandable hiccups. The trick at LR is just to realize that the d10-15 is just not that accurate and have to take into account bias. The EPS missed the Feb 14th cold front, but hinted at the Feb 19th front from LR. JB had a great discussion from a few days ago. He mentioned that the MJO would likely have been a strong 4-6 phase for most of winter winter had it not been for some counterbalancing of western IO convection at times which created a false COD signal. His opinion is that the phase 6 region, which was sitting right on top of the very warm ENSO 4 region, was basically what drove the NA pattern. As noted above, that SST4 region was a true El Nino and may have very well driven Nino conditions that verified as much stronger than a weak Nino. That area fooled modeling and humans repeatedly. Some good evidence(consistent with El Nino conditions) of this is that the northern Rockies, excluding one small area in western Wyoming and eastern Idaho, are BN for precip for January which is nearly opposite of last winter when the PV landed in MT and never left and they were hammered with snowstorm after snowstorm. Here is a fantastic blog that I read for that area. The person who writes this used to work in Norman, OK, in severe stuff. He has an advanced degree in meteorology. Also, if you need some great snow pics...his area is actually in the area that did get AN precip. This is his January write-up, but would encourage you all to read some of the other stuff. Just another world at 6,000' in the northern Rockies. http://blog.starvalleyweather.com/2020/01/31/january-weather-summary-snow/
  13. Carvers Gap
    I have been thinking about what the seasonal drivers have been. The really amped ENSO region 4 has really behaved as a moderate to strong Nino. JB shared that thought the other day, and I have to agree. And since it has been positioned right under phase 6 of the MJO, it really has been the driver this winter. In some ways, our weather pattern has been one of a strong El Nino. IMHO, that is the culprit for excessive rain and warm temps. I don't think the PV has been helpful either. So, with those two in conjunction and the result is we have what we have. Not sure many had ENSO region 4 as a problem. I think the Indian Ocean threw fuel on that fire, because it kept sending wave after wave of convection right over the top of the phase 6 area. Jeff mentioned the IO as a concern early on...Two of those(the IO and ENSO region 4) will probably factor into future forecasts as variables we know to be watchful for. The PV deal is almost a crapshoot...no way to have guessed that one. BTW, the 30mb QBO is now officially negative at -2.51. It did not stall as it fell at a steady rate all winter. However, it is probably a bit too early in the cycle to really help us. The good thing about that is that it runs on roughly 14 month cycles, so it should be there for most of next winter though heading for positive(but still negative). Plus the MJO is just trumping everything with warm phases. Now, with the QBO negative would not surprise me to see blocking develop this spring and make things miserable. I hope not! And we all know the NAO will be negative all summer, and go positive right at the end of November...LOL. That is @tnweathernut's favorite index trend.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Not Holston, but that could be right. That is a bruiser of a high pressure rolling in. However, seasonal trends have generally not been suppression - especially this time of year when things tend to trend north as models recognize they are have a little more juice. And some years, we want to see a system in Cuba because it will move so far north. I will say this, at this time range if it was over NE TN, I would say someone from Lexington to Cincinnati would be more likely to get snow. What we need to hope for is that the cold is over modeled as it has been all season. But yeah, I don't dislike your track though from an unbiased perspective. If this stays on modeling, I would be feeling pretty good anywhere between the Huntsville and Knoxville latitudes and including Memphis. Really would like to see the Euro get it back though. It has issues with being too slow in the West, and that might be messing with its run. Just keep pulling for that big high....likely only way anyone has a chance at snow in the South at this time of year.
  15. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro is very suppressed. Again, will it stay there? Time will tell. It is cold today, but sure nice to see the sun.
  16. Carvers Gap
    ...And having anything to track right now seems like a minor miracle given the trends for this winter! LOL.
  17. Carvers Gap
    12z CMC manages to show some frozen precip over the forum area albeit during a short time frame. I just don't think modeling has this handled quite yet. Again, this is the time frame that we have noted has been poorly modeled due to cut-off lows and such sitting and spinning for infinity. Actual verification likely means that we have two cold fronts rolling through between the 10th and 20th. IMHO, that precip next week is coming north of where it is. It has done this(northern creep) all winter. Cold HP heights are verifying slightly lower(or much lower) than originally modeled. This allows the system to creep northward. Now, during some winters the highs and attack the HP. The other trend is to hold less energy back. Right now, pretty much everyone is in the game in the forum area from northern Alabama to TRI. North Carolina isn't looking to bad either. Verbatim, this is suppressed below I40...but still quite a bit of time for this to move around. PLUS...still not totally convinced that whatever happened last night is totally resolved. Seems like those types of mishaps can take a few runs to get the kinks out. 12z runs might be fine, but when we have seen data ingest problems before and things were wonky for a few days. I actually though modeling looked a bit different this AM. Sort of holding my thoughts on that until we know 12z is clear of any problems. It was odd to see the storm late next week vanish at 0z. Looks like it is back at 12z, but a bit weaker.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the timeframe later next week still looks good despite the storm looking suppressed and strung out right now. Notice the 12z GFS is not holding all of that energy in the Southwest. That is a truck load of cold coming down the Plains and a lot of precip coming out of Texas. Have to think that those two have a chance to collide somewhere in the South.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Wonder if the data problem is fixed and if it caused any model issues?
  20. Carvers Gap
    Was able to finally able to get them. They have flipped through the first week of March at 2m. Pretty remarkable flip compared to Monday at this short of a range. Still digging through them. Here is the 20th-27th. If they are bouncing around like this, highly doubt they are done bouncing(for good and for bad). The first 30 days of the run are now normal for temps where they were pretty warm.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Are those the Weeklies?...WxBell has not loaded. When they are this late, sometimes they don't load. How does the run look after d20?
  22. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS is banging the drum for a good looking pattern - both the control and ensemble. Sure looks like phase 8. No idea how long it lasts, but we will take it if it verifies. Cold look. The control has a fairly strong cold shot with an isolated area of 30 degree BN departures over SW VA at the end of the run. Considering that the EPS/Euro has missed a couple of cold fronts between the 10-20th at range, makes me wonder if the cold is underdone on the ensemble(control is plenty cold!).
  23. Carvers Gap
    Any hunch as to which has the best HP placement? Seems like model biases are backwards on this in terms of holding energy back as well.
  24. Carvers Gap
    That is a 1057 high parked over northwest Colorado.
  25. Carvers Gap
    This is the surface MSLP anomaly...
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