Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,665

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Is the GFS running slow?
  2. Carvers Gap
    Time of day is a big deal at this time of year. Agree with those mentioning that. I also agree with John about true overrunning events arriving early. These types of systems are just pain in the butt to forecast though. Late winter/early spring storms usually have a card or two up their sleeves. For future reference, it has come north quite a bit to where it almost where it was originally forecast. So, need to file that away from any potential future windows. LR modeling after this event is not exactly benign. So, we probably need to learn as much as we can from this one as there may be more like it. I suspect this has the potential to continue to track northward right up to verification with some hiccups at times. I originally thought it would stop. Looks like it paused and is trending north again. That tells us that we need systems tracing south of Birmingham(at 5-6 days) to have a chance in this situation at this time of year. But the great thing about this thread and others, so many great contributors both new and old. I say it all the time, that is my favorite part of these events - just seeing the growth of this forum. This subform began with a handful of patrons. Still plenty of room to grow, but I think this is what we envisioned when we first started kicking this around years ago. The Tennessee Valley region IMHO is incredibly difficult to figure out because it has so many unique nuances, regions, and micro-climates. We aren't really the Plains and we really don't have a true EC climate. These systems leave the Rockies and roll 1,500 miles over flat land and then slam into the Plateau, the Smokies, and roll over the TN river twice. (not forgetting about the Ozarks, Arkansas folks...they count as well). I say this often, our weather is impacted by the Pacific, Great Lakes, GOM, and Atlantic. Not many places can say that. Things can and do get wild. Anyway, again just glad to see all of the interaction.
  3. Carvers Gap
    This is true. Great little short range model. Still not a big hit, but I though about a 100-125 mile jog to the Northwest.
  4. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler has shown himself to be a master thread namer.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Same here, especially on global models. I generally find precip to be a few hours ahead of modeling during many events, but not all. RAP and HRRR is easier for me - I just count the hours to whatever I am looking at. LOL On another note, medium and LR modeling continues to be quite cold - as in BN stuff w duration. The 0z EPS has many BN days and very few AN days. We will see if that holds. The EMON is COD city for the MJO. If so, the inhibitor of the EPO ridge is lessened.
  6. Carvers Gap
    What is the time of day for this event? Time of day makes a huge difference right now. In other words...when does it hit Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and TRI? I think daytime is a no-go if this is marginal. Nighttime is workable.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I usually like to use it once it is under 48 hours.
  8. Carvers Gap
    For sure, I am not unconvinced that this doesn't fall as rain if we don't get strong enough rates. Very much a northward trend since yesterday. At some point that trend stops. Need to see enough moisture but not WAA that is wicked strong. I had said a few days I didn't want to be in the bullseye at 5-6 days out. I am not sure we want to be in the bullseye with 72 hours out. LOL. Still a little wiggle room. Just give me the big high and plenty of precip. Heck, even slow it down a bit.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The 0z EPS hints at another stormy window near the end of the month with the control sending another nasty slider across the forum area.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Great short term discussion. To add to the LR, the 12z EPS and Weeklies(today's run) are not warm after d10. Euro Weeklies imply that we will have BN temps pushing eastward on a regular basis through at least the first three weeks of March. So we have the window this Thursday in which cold lasts from Feb 19-23. We have the window which potentially begins around Feb 27 and lasts for an undetermined amount of time(might be longer than the 2-4 day windows that we have been getting lately). Take with a huge grain of salt. Pattern change? Maybe, but more likely just a relaxation similar to last November.
  11. Carvers Gap
    6z GFS trended north as well, but not quite to Euro levels. As John noted, good look on the Euro...just very light. Wonder if we can get the precip shield to expand without the cold being pushed out in response?
  12. Carvers Gap
    I agree. Think that system is coming north due to that? That is my thinking.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I think the question right now is whether we can get an overrunning event without pushing the cold out of the way. Have to think it is possible, but is it likely? Not sure. Certainly recent trends are brining precip back northward to where it was originally modeled. One more jog north and we might be tracking something. Remains to be seen if that happens. I think we see maybe 1-2 more jogs before it locks in, and then one last jog within 48 hours. Also, very possible that modeling sees a colder air mass and presses it southward. Pretty much everything is on the table with this. LOL. I suspect it keeps coming north, but will be interesting to watch at 12z and again at 0z tonight.
  14. Carvers Gap
    6z GFS came north as well. The 6z GEFS mean has bumped up along the border of AL and TN to around 1.5" of snow. Let's see if it keeps trending.
  15. Carvers Gap
    18z EPS mean is on the left.
  16. Carvers Gap
    18z EPS mean also allows the 6hour qpf shield to move north as well. Pretty big move. Let's see if the 0z supports it.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, thanks. Fixed it. LOL. Would have been a heckuva call ten months out...
  18. Carvers Gap
    It is worth noting that ensembles beginning around Dec 20 are cold for about 6 of the next 10 days after that...sometimes quite cold. Cold bias is possibly and even likely in play. I think the Feb(edit) 20th cold shot is likely. The immense surge of cold modeled around the 27/28th is probably feeling some bias. Still, the 500 pattern on ensembles(operationals for the first one) portrays two strong cold shots. Again, how long is that second shot going to hold? No idea, and not sure ensembles give us many clues either. I was not overly impressed by the MJO this morning. PSU noted in the the MA thread that phase 8 is not really where we want to be at this time of year, and I concur. He noted that we need it in 1, 2, and 3, and I concur with that as well. So, seeing the MJO bend away from phase 8 is likely a plus. Looks to me like a null signal(probably a false null) with some potential to trend away from warmer phases on the ECMF w the ECMM less enthusiastic. It is a bit surprising to see the LR models so cold in the LR...colder than the usual bias. If they miss this time, verification will not be pretty as they are quite cold. If they verify, it will feel like winter during both of those windows.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Could be two camps or it could be a -EPO ridge being undercut w blocking over the top. Verbatim, that is a good look, but it is way out there so that likely changes some. Looks like two more windows before the month is up - d6ish and d12ish. I can't decide if I like the digging into the Southwest around the 27th. It may be another error. That said, if it digs that much that could be a big storm coming east right behind a cutter. Kind of has that look. When one looks at the gif above, storms coming in around LA have a tendency to exit at the same latitude. So, we might get a cutter but the next storm might exit at the same latitude as Los Angeles. Seems a "cutter followed by a coastal" type of look as the trough pushes eastward. I can say this...much more interesting than December and January where we had virtually nothing to track or even discuss other than d10+ maps. Right now we at least have something to watch at d5-6 and have had two recent snow threads.. LOL.
  20. Carvers Gap
    As for the LR, the EPS has had one variation or another of cold beginning around Feb 20th. Seems like it has finally settled on Feb 20-24th as the next cold shot and is potentially hinting at another around the 28th. At 0z, the EPS 10day mean for the 20-30th(generally speaking of the entire forum area) remains normal to slightly BN for temps w precip BN with the exception of Memphis. Again, as has been noted on multiple occasions...there appears to be a cold front of varying strength rolling through about every 5-6 days. Is the pattern after the 20th a pattern change? Not sure. There is a strong cold shot, sharp warm-up, and another cold from modeled in that 10day period beginning on the 20th. Changing wavelengths could cause a prolonged pattern relaxation like they did in November. I do think the SER is going to fight as long as phase 6 is sitting on top of AN SSTs. The trough on the 0z EPS is at d12 right now for that second shot of cold. It is tough to tell if it is a pattern change because the model only runs through d15. I think a prolonged pattern relaxation of 10-14 days is certainly within the realm of possibility - meaning a colder pattern in the East. It very well could be that we are going to enter a time frame where there is more balance. As for the system next week...right now it is suppressed. The Euro trended slightly north with its precip shield at 0z. The 0z CMC has more interaction between the northern and southern stream which allows precip to spread into southern areas of the sub forum. I will not be surprised to see this come north over time. Still 5-6 days before that event even gets here. That is 20 more runs of the GFS and 10 more runs of the Euro operational before verification. My guess is that there are a few more turns(maybe not huge ones...but trending still very possible one way or another) at this range.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Modeling has indeed been pretty bad this winter, but the EPS has done quite well during February with the 500 pattern. Temp bias towards cold is noted. The EPS hit the Feb 5-10th pattern from almost 15 days out. It also had a very warm period from the 10-20th with a few hiccups to cold, but eventually retained the original warm-up. The GEFS is always cold after d10...and is about worthless right now because of it at that range. I am basically using the GEFS to see if it agrees with the EPS. Both models have a cold bias, but the EPS seems to be locating features at 500 reasonably well at range with understandable hiccups. The trick at LR is just to realize that the d10-15 is just not that accurate and have to take into account bias. The EPS missed the Feb 14th cold front, but hinted at the Feb 19th front from LR. JB had a great discussion from a few days ago. He mentioned that the MJO would likely have been a strong 4-6 phase for most of winter winter had it not been for some counterbalancing of western IO convection at times which created a false COD signal. His opinion is that the phase 6 region, which was sitting right on top of the very warm ENSO 4 region, was basically what drove the NA pattern. As noted above, that SST4 region was a true El Nino and may have very well driven Nino conditions that verified as much stronger than a weak Nino. That area fooled modeling and humans repeatedly. Some good evidence(consistent with El Nino conditions) of this is that the northern Rockies, excluding one small area in western Wyoming and eastern Idaho, are BN for precip for January which is nearly opposite of last winter when the PV landed in MT and never left and they were hammered with snowstorm after snowstorm. Here is a fantastic blog that I read for that area. The person who writes this used to work in Norman, OK, in severe stuff. He has an advanced degree in meteorology. Also, if you need some great snow pics...his area is actually in the area that did get AN precip. This is his January write-up, but would encourage you all to read some of the other stuff. Just another world at 6,000' in the northern Rockies. http://blog.starvalleyweather.com/2020/01/31/january-weather-summary-snow/
  22. Carvers Gap
    I have been thinking about what the seasonal drivers have been. The really amped ENSO region 4 has really behaved as a moderate to strong Nino. JB shared that thought the other day, and I have to agree. And since it has been positioned right under phase 6 of the MJO, it really has been the driver this winter. In some ways, our weather pattern has been one of a strong El Nino. IMHO, that is the culprit for excessive rain and warm temps. I don't think the PV has been helpful either. So, with those two in conjunction and the result is we have what we have. Not sure many had ENSO region 4 as a problem. I think the Indian Ocean threw fuel on that fire, because it kept sending wave after wave of convection right over the top of the phase 6 area. Jeff mentioned the IO as a concern early on...Two of those(the IO and ENSO region 4) will probably factor into future forecasts as variables we know to be watchful for. The PV deal is almost a crapshoot...no way to have guessed that one. BTW, the 30mb QBO is now officially negative at -2.51. It did not stall as it fell at a steady rate all winter. However, it is probably a bit too early in the cycle to really help us. The good thing about that is that it runs on roughly 14 month cycles, so it should be there for most of next winter though heading for positive(but still negative). Plus the MJO is just trumping everything with warm phases. Now, with the QBO negative would not surprise me to see blocking develop this spring and make things miserable. I hope not! And we all know the NAO will be negative all summer, and go positive right at the end of November...LOL. That is @tnweathernut's favorite index trend.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Not Holston, but that could be right. That is a bruiser of a high pressure rolling in. However, seasonal trends have generally not been suppression - especially this time of year when things tend to trend north as models recognize they are have a little more juice. And some years, we want to see a system in Cuba because it will move so far north. I will say this, at this time range if it was over NE TN, I would say someone from Lexington to Cincinnati would be more likely to get snow. What we need to hope for is that the cold is over modeled as it has been all season. But yeah, I don't dislike your track though from an unbiased perspective. If this stays on modeling, I would be feeling pretty good anywhere between the Huntsville and Knoxville latitudes and including Memphis. Really would like to see the Euro get it back though. It has issues with being too slow in the West, and that might be messing with its run. Just keep pulling for that big high....likely only way anyone has a chance at snow in the South at this time of year.
  24. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro is very suppressed. Again, will it stay there? Time will tell. It is cold today, but sure nice to see the sun.
  25. Carvers Gap
    ...And having anything to track right now seems like a minor miracle given the trends for this winter! LOL.
×
×
  • Create New...