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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Ensembles today depict ~BN temps for much of the next two and a half weeks. I normally put my tomatoes in the ground during the first week of May. Not sure that is going to happen this year. Early May may feel like mid-April at times. Really hope that is wrong. I have stuff ready to go in the ground. I am not even sure that our chances for frost are gone for NE TN by that time. Frost free is usually around May 8 for my house...we may push past that date this year.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I was afraid of that. Well, if we are going that direction then let's go with strong La Nina and cool the Pacific some so a better gradient returns during future winters. I am not digging this cool April. The West is working on a really good decade of winters.
  3. Carvers Gap
    With the QBO at -4.36 for March, it does not shock me that things have turned cooler. The QBO did not stall as some predicted. It moved in a fairly predictable pattern and is now firmly established. Looks like we might get into early winter(at least) with the QBO negative, but likely rising by that point which is not great. But we might steal a couple of good months early before the transition works against us. Either way, very blocky look over NA during the next couple of weeks at least - just what lovers of summer wanted to hear said no one ever.
  4. Carvers Gap
    April has fallen BN for temps and MA normal for precip at TRI. There have been multiple snow events in the mountains, though light. I have had 6 frosts and/or freezes of varying degrees IMBY. Tops of my potatoes got a bit burned as I gambled and lost one night. They have rebounded quickly though. The biggest problem is BN temps combined with heavy rainfall have suppressed soil temps. I would guess we are a couple of weeks behind right now in comparison with where we should be in planting gardens stuff. May just have to make a "go" of it.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Verbatim that is a good looking sea surface signature. @nrgjeff, what do you think about the waters depicted in the GOA there? Also, that is a pretty cold signature in the North Atlantic. How might that affect us?
  6. Carvers Gap
    Low temps are bottoming out 3-4 degrees lower than forecast for MBY. Made it to 31 at TRI this AM. Last I had checked, it was supposed to be 34. Pretty close to a freeze and not a frost - not quite but close. Big difference between 34 and 31 for folks who have gardens. Frost at 33-34 is handled with covering items. When temps go below 32, what material is used to cover matters. If humidity builds up under some materials, it will actually freeze under the cover. At 33-34, this doesn't happen as much. At 31, it can harm plants under tarps and plastic due to that.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Big cutters during April are bad mojo.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Good point. Maybe it is less of a coup and more of a seasonal trend. Seems like the GFS has had the advantage during the last two transitional time frames(last fall and this spring). Euro just has trouble during the shoulder seasons when the patterns change-up. The GFS really did well last November.
  9. Carvers Gap
    GFS scored a coup with this stretch of in-and-out troughs in rapid repetition. It nailed them on the operational and on the ensemble. Might be an example of "a broken clock being right twice a day though" as it is always has cold. We would have scored multiple times with this pattern during winter IMHO.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Sounds like you are in the market for a quiet generator.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS has snow at 252 in NE TN...took a bit of a break from the weather this week as we home school. Nice to know some things don't change. Like the setting of the sun every day, the GFS is still snowing at d+10.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Man, one clear, cold night with no wind...you know how it goes. I built a small hoop house that is about 4' tall. Dropped in 10 tomato plants this weekend under it. Just no freezes please! I think we still get a frost or two. Just depends on how hard one wants to work to cover up plants. LOL. The 18z GEFS has backed down somewhat(surprised?) on its long term cold outlook. I cut my WxBell account...just too much money for d10-15 of the EPS and Weeklies. If anyone wants to share the Weeklies on TR or M, it would be appreciated and/or d10-15 EPS descriptions at 500. Don't really need maps, just an in general sentence or two about the model. Also, does anyone have an affordable option just for the EPS? I am talking maybe ten bucks a month.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Never a good sign when the power goes out while I am typing. LOL. It is back on now. Good news with the bold...about the only time I would say that. Bring it on. Makes it a huge fight for garden disease(especially tomatoes), but humidity suppresses some illnesses due to droplets not being able to travel as far. Think dry for late summer? I think maybe in NE TN. We have tended to be really dry up here during La Ninas. Also, thinking moderate or strong for the La Nina? We are long over due for a strong one. And no to the -NAO...
  14. Carvers Gap
    Have a feeling this thread ends hot and dry. Hope I am wrong. Right now it is raining nearly every day. Feels like coastal Maine. For the historical record, many of us are stuck inside anyway due to COVID19 restrictions and voluntary social distancing. Many are working from home. These are trying times. I hope by the end of this thread, this pandemic is over and we are again worried about wx maps, future winter patterns, and ENSO. This thread will be primarily for pattern discussion both in the near and short term. If your family has a need due to the illness, send us a PM or put it on blast in the banter thread.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I don't make the rules, but my two cents...I personally don't mind the COVID19 talk as that is just part of our lives. We have a great forum, even though many of us are on opposite sides of the aisle. This is one place where we can drop the politics(admittedly difficult sometimes to separate politics from the issues at hand) and be somewhat united in our enjoyment of the weather. I do think it is entirely possible that COVID19 and the weather are likely linked, even if loosely. The other families of corona viruses do not like late spring and summer weather. It is entirely possible that it returns during the fall with the first cold snap or two if that is the case. What we do here might have particular significance if that is the case. I just think we can have those discussions without being overly partisan. I do realize for many that these are stressful times. Some are out of work. Some are about to be. Many are stuck at home. I think discussion is healthy, but let's just remember that we were friends well before this virus came upon us.
  16. Carvers Gap
    More traditional banter...went out and purchased a generator. It is just a small one, but enough to run a freezer and a refrigerator. We have lost our freezer three times during the past years. Once was due to a storm, and the other two were the result of the door being left open...nobody in the house seems to know how that happened. We now have freezer alarms. However, with this virus running through the US right now, didn't want to chance severe wx knocking out our power. If this comes through in a wave, I imagine multiple services which we have come to depend on as automatic will be uncertain. I do think food supplies are still good, but runs on grocery stores make it difficult for supply chains to get food from vendors to shelves. Interestingly, the grocery store shelf stockers, truck drivers, postal services, and building custodial services to name a few are so important right now. I hope we recognize and remember in the future just how important those folks are. Hats off to those folks. Well, we have been working our tails off in my family to get ready. For my family, this will get potentially dicey as my wife works in the medical field. The situation changes by the hour some days. Fortunately, she works for really good folks who are also committed to great patient care. My phrase is to be prepared for the worst and hope for the best. I suspect we are about to see a big jump in cases as more testing comes on line with maybe things leveling off(meaning acceleration slows) by mid to late April. Tough to know if the virus is moving that fast or if we are just getting more tests on line. I suspect it is a combination of both. Looking at virus maps is not dissimilar to looking at weather maps. Problem with the COVID19 maps, what is under all of those dots is serious business. I haven't posted much lately as I am reading everything I can get my hands on and working to prepare...just really pulling for spring to continue to move forward. Though we don't know about this virus, other corona viruses do not spread nearly as fast during summer. That might be related to schools being out, heat, and people having more space between them during summer (meaning going outside). I suspect it slows down, but I am not a doctor. Best wishes to everyone. TRI folks, we are just a PM away. If you need anything, don't hesitate to ask. We just need to pull together and support our communities including this weather community. Stay strong, stay safe, and social distance.
  17. Carvers Gap
    We had a rainy pattern several years ago like this...seemed like it was every day. Then, over a one week time frame...it just stopped for months. Seems like that was in the early 2000s. The thing is about this forecasted La Nina...we will likely go from feast to famine in a hurry if it develops. There are two patterns that I really just don't like: El Nino winters and La Nina summers. This year, we may manage a Nada(with Nino tendencies) and a La Nina summer. If there has been a constant(minus that flash drought in NE TN last fall), it has been rain. I don't have a time table on when this rainy pattern stops, but when it does I think it will be abrupt. Jeff, I think has mentioned this as well. Seems like in TN for as long as I can remember, wx patterns have at times made made very quick transitions to nearly the opposite pattern. Excessive rain and drought are part of our climatology. I tilled up some new garden space earlier this week. I needed to add some amendments to the soil like cow manure and sand. I told myself that I would get the next morning. Hasn't stopped raining since. I walked into a store in Johnson City last night(grocery and social distancing) and it felt like something I would expect in coastal Maine. There was a fine mist blowing on about 15mph winds. So yeah, my thoughts about a moderating pattern in NE TN are not going to verify. LOL. But hey, just part of it. As Jax noted, the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat. Very true words in the wx world. While counter-intuitive, I fully expect to have to water my garden every day in July and August.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Completely understood. Thank you for your service @Calderon, you are welcome anytime here. Can't thank you enough. A true Volunteer! Stay safe!
  19. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Nope.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Of course. LOL. Nothing overly scientific, just hoping. Let's hope the EPS doesn't fold. Good thing is, many of the schools will be closed by that time, and that will help. While in session, cold weather keeps those kiddos inside and stuff spreads like wildfire. Stay well, my friend.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Been a week since I last posted. My wife is in the medical field, and I have been delivering band fundraiser mulch. Time has been at a premium. Finished the last run today just as schools were shut down for a couple of weeks minimum. I appreciate everyone for keeping the fires lit. Best wishes to everyone during the coming months, and my hopes are certainly for continued warm and humid weather. Sounds kind of weird, but this crappy weather pattern we have had all winter might actually have been a blessing in disguise.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Folks in the northern Rockies have to be licking their chops. Yeah, have to think a drought is coming and will be abrupt. Preparing mentally to be hand watering the garden for at least the second half of summer. Fortunately, saved a ton of money on A/C this winter. Going to spend it all to cool this summer. LOL!
  23. Carvers Gap
    After days of rain, snow, severe...this weekend was a pleasant reprieve. The sun was out and skies were blue on Saturday and Sunday. We drove down to Chucky Doak on Saturday for individual ratings on music instruments. Reminded my of Montana. Greene County is a beautiful area of the country.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Would not surprise me to see the precip shut-off suddenly(at some point during the next couple of months...to BN precip for an extended amount time) with La Nina developing soon. Sounds counter intuitive. Starting to see some hints on modeling that precip in NE TN is going to be scaled back from what we have been used to. I think middle areas and western areas of the forum still see quite a bit of rain. That said, with high pressure building in along the coast we may dry out from the Apps to the coast over the next few weeks. We will see if this actually happens as it would be a fairly big pattern change here in NE TN.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Brief snow shower here in west Kingsport.
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