Carvers Gap

Sounds like you are in the market for a quiet generator.

The 12z GFS has snow at 252 in NE TN...took a bit of a break from the weather this week as we home school. Nice to know some things don't change. Like the setting of the sun every day, the GFS is still snowing at d+10.

Man, one clear, cold night with no wind...you know how it goes. I built a small hoop house that is about 4' tall. Dropped in 10 tomato plants this weekend under it. Just no freezes please! I think we still get a frost or two. Just depends on how hard one wants to work to cover up plants. LOL. The 18z GEFS has backed down somewhat(surprised?) on its long term cold outlook. I cut my WxBell account...just too much money for d10-15 of the EPS and Weeklies. If anyone wants to share the Weeklies on TR or M, it would be appreciated and/or d10-15 EPS descriptions at 500. Don't really need maps, just an in general sentence or two about the model. Also, does anyone have an affordable option just for the EPS? I am talking maybe ten bucks a month.

Never a good sign when the power goes out while I am typing. LOL. It is back on now. Good news with the bold...about the only time I would say that. Bring it on. Makes it a huge fight for garden disease(especially tomatoes), but humidity suppresses some illnesses due to droplets not being able to travel as far. Think dry for late summer? I think maybe in NE TN. We have tended to be really dry up here during La Ninas. Also, thinking moderate or strong for the La Nina? We are long over due for a strong one. And no to the -NAO...

Have a feeling this thread ends hot and dry. Hope I am wrong. Right now it is raining nearly every day. Feels like coastal Maine. For the historical record, many of us are stuck inside anyway due to COVID19 restrictions and voluntary social distancing. Many are working from home. These are trying times. I hope by the end of this thread, this pandemic is over and we are again worried about wx maps, future winter patterns, and ENSO. This thread will be primarily for pattern discussion both in the near and short term. If your family has a need due to the illness, send us a PM or put it on blast in the banter thread.

I don't make the rules, but my two cents...I personally don't mind the COVID19 talk as that is just part of our lives. We have a great forum, even though many of us are on opposite sides of the aisle. This is one place where we can drop the politics(admittedly difficult sometimes to separate politics from the issues at hand) and be somewhat united in our enjoyment of the weather. I do think it is entirely possible that COVID19 and the weather are likely linked, even if loosely. The other families of corona viruses do not like late spring and summer weather. It is entirely possible that it returns during the fall with the first cold snap or two if that is the case. What we do here might have particular significance if that is the case. I just think we can have those discussions without being overly partisan. I do realize for many that these are stressful times. Some are out of work. Some are about to be. Many are stuck at home. I think discussion is healthy, but let's just remember that we were friends well before this virus came upon us.

More traditional banter...went out and purchased a generator. It is just a small one, but enough to run a freezer and a refrigerator. We have lost our freezer three times during the past years. Once was due to a storm, and the other two were the result of the door being left open...nobody in the house seems to know how that happened. We now have freezer alarms. However, with this virus running through the US right now, didn't want to chance severe wx knocking out our power. If this comes through in a wave, I imagine multiple services which we have come to depend on as automatic will be uncertain. I do think food supplies are still good, but runs on grocery stores make it difficult for supply chains to get food from vendors to shelves. Interestingly, the grocery store shelf stockers, truck drivers, postal services, and building custodial services to name a few are so important right now. I hope we recognize and remember in the future just how important those folks are. Hats off to those folks. Well, we have been working our tails off in my family to get ready. For my family, this will get potentially dicey as my wife works in the medical field. The situation changes by the hour some days. Fortunately, she works for really good folks who are also committed to great patient care. My phrase is to be prepared for the worst and hope for the best. I suspect we are about to see a big jump in cases as more testing comes on line with maybe things leveling off(meaning acceleration slows) by mid to late April. Tough to know if the virus is moving that fast or if we are just getting more tests on line. I suspect it is a combination of both. Looking at virus maps is not dissimilar to looking at weather maps. Problem with the COVID19 maps, what is under all of those dots is serious business. I haven't posted much lately as I am reading everything I can get my hands on and working to prepare...just really pulling for spring to continue to move forward. Though we don't know about this virus, other corona viruses do not spread nearly as fast during summer. That might be related to schools being out, heat, and people having more space between them during summer (meaning going outside). I suspect it slows down, but I am not a doctor. Best wishes to everyone. TRI folks, we are just a PM away. If you need anything, don't hesitate to ask. We just need to pull together and support our communities including this weather community. Stay strong, stay safe, and social distance.

We had a rainy pattern several years ago like this...seemed like it was every day. Then, over a one week time frame...it just stopped for months. Seems like that was in the early 2000s. The thing is about this forecasted La Nina...we will likely go from feast to famine in a hurry if it develops. There are two patterns that I really just don't like: El Nino winters and La Nina summers. This year, we may manage a Nada(with Nino tendencies) and a La Nina summer. If there has been a constant(minus that flash drought in NE TN last fall), it has been rain. I don't have a time table on when this rainy pattern stops, but when it does I think it will be abrupt. Jeff, I think has mentioned this as well. Seems like in TN for as long as I can remember, wx patterns have at times made made very quick transitions to nearly the opposite pattern. Excessive rain and drought are part of our climatology. I tilled up some new garden space earlier this week. I needed to add some amendments to the soil like cow manure and sand. I told myself that I would get the next morning. Hasn't stopped raining since. I walked into a store in Johnson City last night(grocery and social distancing) and it felt like something I would expect in coastal Maine. There was a fine mist blowing on about 15mph winds. So yeah, my thoughts about a moderating pattern in NE TN are not going to verify. LOL. But hey, just part of it. As Jax noted, the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat. Very true words in the wx world. While counter-intuitive, I fully expect to have to water my garden every day in July and August.

Completely understood. Thank you for your service @Calderon, you are welcome anytime here. Can't thank you enough. A true Volunteer! Stay safe!

LOL. Nope.

Of course. LOL. Nothing overly scientific, just hoping. Let's hope the EPS doesn't fold. Good thing is, many of the schools will be closed by that time, and that will help. While in session, cold weather keeps those kiddos inside and stuff spreads like wildfire. Stay well, my friend.

Been a week since I last posted. My wife is in the medical field, and I have been delivering band fundraiser mulch. Time has been at a premium. Finished the last run today just as schools were shut down for a couple of weeks minimum. I appreciate everyone for keeping the fires lit. Best wishes to everyone during the coming months, and my hopes are certainly for continued warm and humid weather. Sounds kind of weird, but this crappy weather pattern we have had all winter might actually have been a blessing in disguise.

Folks in the northern Rockies have to be licking their chops. Yeah, have to think a drought is coming and will be abrupt. Preparing mentally to be hand watering the garden for at least the second half of summer. Fortunately, saved a ton of money on A/C this winter. Going to spend it all to cool this summer. LOL!

After days of rain, snow, severe...this weekend was a pleasant reprieve. The sun was out and skies were blue on Saturday and Sunday. We drove down to Chucky Doak on Saturday for individual ratings on music instruments. Reminded my of Montana. Greene County is a beautiful area of the country.

Would not surprise me to see the precip shut-off suddenly(at some point during the next couple of months...to BN precip for an extended amount time) with La Nina developing soon. Sounds counter intuitive. Starting to see some hints on modeling that precip in NE TN is going to be scaled back from what we have been used to. I think middle areas and western areas of the forum still see quite a bit of rain. That said, with high pressure building in along the coast we may dry out from the Apps to the coast over the next few weeks. We will see if this actually happens as it would be a fairly big pattern change here in NE TN.

Brief snow shower here in west Kingsport.

The day started out fairly comfortable. Wind is now blowing. Temp is 43 with a wind chill of 36. Should be the last day that feels like winter for some time. Radar is showing some pretty intense snow squalls in SW VA and SE KY. Typical early March wx.

There is a remembrance service at 6:00PM central in Cookeville. A press conference will follow immediately which will provide updates. Local authorities are still trying to locate dozens of people in an effort to determine their whereabouts. They may very well be in hotels or with family members. Trying times for sure. If folks on the forum know a displaced person due to the weather events of last night, make sure they have checked-in with local authorities.

Some good radio work being done by 94.1 out of Cookeville, TN. Been some great information all day on the station. Survey team reported 175+mph winds and was on the ground for 50 miles. Nashville area was listed as an EF3. They will be in Putnman Co tomorrow to investigate the damage there. So, we should get some updates about the intensity on the Plateau after their work there. https://newstalk941.com

With La Nina conditions forecast to develop, will be interesting to see the range of observations from the beginning of this thread to the last. An incredibly stormy night has come to an end. The sun is out. Please reference the severe thread regarding the powerful tornado that swept through middle TN overnight. Our thoughts and prayers are with the people in that region. If you are a new poster and not comfortable in posting in the pattern discussion thread, this is a great place to start. Give it a shot!

One of my former students is working radio right now in Cookeville. He has been on the air for twelve hours straight.

Just awful.

My thoughts and prayers are with those families affected by the tornado. Hate to hear about your brother's and mom's homes @Matthew70.

@Stovepipe, when do you plant your tomato and pepper seeds? Also, when do you drop them in the ground...seems like you put yours in earlier than me? I am considering an earlier start this year...

You wouldn't be a true member of the forum if topography couldn't screw you out of snow(by usually more than one scenario). "Downsloping FTW" should be the subform motto. Unless of course there is a flooding threat, then it enhances the rainfall. LOL