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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    February at TRI had seven days with at least some snow recorded at the airport. Snow totals for February at TRI were 2.9" with thunder snow reported in Kingsport/Sullivan Co during one convective band. Its temp average of 42.5 was the same as January. Feb was +3.5 in regards to temps. TRI had eleven days BN for temps in Feb vs just one in Jan. We had 8.23" of rain which is 4.78" above normal, over twice our normal amount. After beginning incredibly warm, the last ten days of the month were BN. We have spoken many times on this sub-forum during several of the past years about the importance of November. While November certainly didn't make a re-appearance, the wild swings in temperatures from October did. And we have also talked on the sub-forum about that. As it turns out, February was sort of a mix of November and October. Looks like we are now headed for more AN temps, excluding next weekend's cold front. Overall, DJF will likely be one for the record books. This wasn't as bad as a 90s winter since February did have some snow, but it was quite similar. In retrospect, it had a lot of similarities to 88-89 with the cold simply being displaced into November vs early December. One other difference is the snow at lower elevations in February. But it also had some similarities to other warm years of that decade which featured several El Nino years. Weather models during February did a nice job of placing features at 500. Modeling for most of winter featured a cold bias. However, the Euro/EPS MJO was decent relative to other models. Overall, after a shaky start, the EPS from mid-January to now has performed remarkably well(at 500) though it did miss a cold front(at range) during mid-month. The Weeklies on most modeling were sketchy.
  2. Carvers Gap
    The 18z RGEM pretty much nailed that convective band. Impressive.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I bet I-81 is not pleasant about right now.
  4. Carvers Gap
    From MRX at 3:15PM.... Showers across the northern half of the area will continue to taper off through the rest of the afternoon. With steep lapse rates, we have been seeing snow with temperatures in the mid and upper 30s, which is preventing accumulations at lower elevations. That should continue through the rest of the day. As the midlevel shortwave trough departs, we should see a brief lull this evening before a stronger trough approaches tonight. This disturbance will bring a surge of cold air aloft that will steepen lapse rates once again, and shift low level winds to the NW while increasing them to 30-40 kts. This will be favorable for convective snow showers in the northern half, with orographic enhancement squeezing out additional moisture across the higher terrain. This second round is expected to arrive in the Plateau between 02-04Z, with peak snowfall in the 04-08Z time frame. The upslope flow will maintain accumulating snow in the mountains until around 12-15Z. The Winter Weather Advisory will be expanded slightly to include all of SW VA, with the emphasis on higher elevations above 2500 ft. The Advisory area can expect a half inch up to 3 inches in higher elevations. The mountains from Monroe to Cocke couties will be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, emphasizing elevations above 3500 ft where 3-7 inches are expected overnight.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Was standing outside taking a photo and bang! LOL. Thundersnow. Have heard 7-8 rumbles of thunder and actually saw some lightning.
  6. Carvers Gap
    @Stovepipe, tomato seedlings are up. Peppers always take longer, but a few of those are up. Eggplant, dill, and basil are up on the seed starting racks. My tomato varieties this year are some early season heirlooms combined with varieties with strong disease resistance. Shooting for some earlier varieties to avoid late season blight and septoria. Since I am starting my own plants from seeds this year, I am hoping that my variety choices and seed starting practices will eliminate some of the disease in my tomatoes a couple of years ago. I also left the garden fallow last summer. I know that stuff stays in the soil for a long time, so hoping this will up my chances for a better harvest of the red fruit. Garlic and bunching onions from the fall are going to be a strong harvest. They are looking really good.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Time to warm it up. I am in favor for the reasons mentioned above. Bring on spring. If there was ever a time for an early spring, now is the time.
  8. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro looked a bit more "robust" with the systems beginning tomorrow afternoon into Saturday. Thought 12z had a little bit of an uptick on a couple of models. Nothing major, but a trend worth watching. Got .5-.75" this AM in west Kingsport. Woke up and looked out the window and thought fog had rolled in. +SN was pouring down. Busses got caught in route. Rest of Kingsport wasn't as bad with just a light dusting. West of I-26 got some nice snow for about 20 mins. Hardest I have seen it snow in a long time. It was ripping.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Both the GFS and Euro at 12z are now suppressing the last wave around March 5th. Euro pops a weak low to our SE and the GFS wasn't that far off.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Edit: Should have said March 6th. Wavelengths changing up are going to make ensembles fairly mortal during the next 3-4 weeks. They have actually been accurate in where they are placing 500 features since about Jan 20(bringing in the LR at that time point) - they meaning the EPS.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Another cold front beginning to be a consistent feature around March 7th on modeling. Speaking of head fakes, that (the never ending western trough) has been a major head fake for about five-six weeks. That March 7th feature was at one point a fairly warm week on modeling. Seems like the warm-up is getting chopped up and pushed back. The 12z Euro operational has a warm-up, but that trough coming through on the 7th. Looks like it has another lined up after that. Variable weather in early spring. Who knew? LOL.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Nothing to add to Jeff's comments regarding this weekend. As for the period after Feb 27-March3, looks warmer on the EPS...though the control is not. It is just more of the same. Honestly, with COVID19 not being contained...I am all for the weather warming up ASAP. Let's see if that virus likes warm temps and higher sun angles. In other words, we need cold and flu season to end like yesterday. We need the weather to warm IMHO. I am 100% for it after this weekend. The warm look on the MJO might actually be a blessing in disguise.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Going to roll with moderate to strong La Nina, -QBO, MJO 4-6 quiet, more blocking than normal. Lots of conflicting signals which result in periods of extreme warmth and extreme cold that result in slightly AN temps, but bouts of severe cold at times. Going to be moderate/strong Nina vs high latitude blocking. I am not sold on a -NAO, but do feel the EPO/PNA and AO will cooperate at times. I feel it is a decent gamble to say that it will be cooler than DJF from this winter. Just hoping the La Nina doesn't take hold during summer as it will get very hot and dry if so. I suspect August and September have the potential to really be warm and dry.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Interesting. Definitely supports comments made yesterday in this thread and some off-and-on discussions in the sub-forum.
  15. Carvers Gap
    The 0z CMC shows that situation quite well as does the 0z Euro.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Looks like we might get some rain changing to snow with the system around the 27th - nothing huge at this point but that could change as that has the potential to be stronger. That sets the stage for any northern stream energy that follows to be snow. Models have hinted at some weak, embedded energy coming through after the cutter and inland runner combo pass through on the 27th . If that energy is real, that is probably our best chance at snow. It is worth noting that energy at this time of year is often under-modeled at this range in my experience and also that latitude will come well north. So, just some things to think about. We want energy to get buried to our south and work back this direction.
  17. Carvers Gap
    We have been kicking that around a bit in Jax's ENSO thread. Mixed signals at this range and understandably so. I am willing to sacrifice next winter if we can get a strong La Nina. We have not had a moderate/strong La Nina in several years. A weak La Nina often has severe extreme of both heat and cold. Moderate and strong La Ninas tend to favor very warm patterns in the East, but the following winters can be quite cold. Basically, we need to drop the ENSO equivalent of an ice cube in ENSO region 4. A Nina would likely help the SST the gradient in the Pacific (again, TyphoonTip has talked about the lack of gradient during the past two winters). I am not convinced next winter will be an improvement, but if we get a La Nina...it could set the stage for some good winters. One area that will be interesting is whether strong blocking develops as there is some correlation to that happening the year or two after a solar min. I would lean AN for next winter(with cold extremes embedded), but that is super weak sauce from this range. LOL.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Looks like since the AMO flipped(just looking at that graphic), we have had three moderate/strong Ninas that have been cold during winter and seven AN. I always thought 95-96 was weaker off the top of my head. That said, seems like as long as the Nina is not a super La Nina...we get lots of extreme cold and warm. I definitely think we needs as strong of a La Nina as we can get - even if we have to sacrifice a winter to do so. Seems like the following winters after Ninas can be pretty good. We are long overdue for this shake-up, and I think this has had a lot to do with the AN temps in the Pacific. @john11 can probably answer this, John how do we do during strong and moderate La Ninas. Seems like weaker ones are colder.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Nah, you did really well with the naming. Some rich possibilities for names in that Feb27-March3 window.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Oh yeah, understood they comments regarding spring. Was just picking your brain about later in the year.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for the heads-up. So, western Pac convection (as long as it is not in phase 6) is not a terrible thing in March, right? In other words some of the MJO phase(maybe phase 5) that were warm during the heart of winter can actually be cool during later winter and early spring. Or do you feel that the western Pac is in conflict with the prolonged cold signal?
  22. Carvers Gap
    Agree, if this came in at night...we would have had 4-5" of snow IMBY.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Going to make one edit. The Feb 27th window may actually last until March 3rd. The EPS hints at another system around March 2nd. Big trough rolls through on the 27th with a chance at an inland runner, but could also be a cutter. Then, as the Euro operational depicts at 12z, the cold pours into the East, and a few northern stream features(not seen many of those this winter) have potential to work into the pattern. As that cold matures or leaves, seems there is a window for another slider or one that phases. Per the 12z, there are varying chances embedded in that window at the front end of the window, the middle, and as it departs. Hopefully, we get a couple of more chances to track. The first chance is now under 7 days out. I think our best chances come as the cold spreads into the area and the northern stream sends a few pieces of energy into cold that is already in place. Might have a chance to be our strongest cold(by anomaly) all winter.
  24. Carvers Gap
    @nrgjeff I know strong Ninas are not great for winter in the East. However, given how 3.4 has amped phase 6 of the MJO this current winter...do you feel that a Nina winter might actually be an improvement even with its leaning towards a warm pattern? Not sure we see a winter warmer than this one even with a La Nina. I know we do see extremes - both cold and warm. Also, looks like that might push a warm end to summer and beginning to fall(referencing Jax's last post)? Anyway, I think a La Nina of moderate or strong strength is needed to "reset" the Pacific SSTs. Been a while since we have had a good one and the Pacific reflects that I think...
  25. Carvers Gap
    Temps...we will bad mouthed for many years. Been terrible. LOL. This is what an active STJ can do if any cold can get into a rainy pattern. We have said it some on this forum...it can and does snow during a warm pattern. It is one reason most folks really stay clear of making snow predictions for winter. Snow doesn't always correlate to temps. That said, most areas north of I-40 will likely still finish BN for snowfall and maybe well below. However, definitely makes events like these easier to appreciate. BTW, I only got about an inch of snow from this. Chattanooga has more snowfall this season than I do and awesome for. them. They are always great to cheer for those who live in locations which get more snow on average. For TRI, not a big storm. JC might have gotten a bit more. However, after staring at d10-15 patterns for two months, it is nice to see three events that had frozen precip. Still an underperforming winter for areas north of 40(and likely western forum areas have not too well - @AMZ8990 country). Looks like one more window between ~ Feb 27-March1. EPS wants to dump the trough West around d12(but still has the aforementioned window). Little bit of a break in continuity, but I am suspicious anytime it digs into the Southwest - I won't be surprised if the current pattern just continues with periodic troughs and cold. Its control holds with continuity by having an extended window for winter weather after Feb 27 to basically the end of the run. Main problem is the Weeklies ran off the 0z run, and that means they are less reliable than normal as 12z broke to a different pattern late in the run. Just glad we have had something to track and maybe still have have a few more events to track. One last thought, it is possible that the EPS is back to its old games from November, but we will see. Who knows. Good thing is the operational is better than the d10-15 which is a nice change!
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