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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The day started out fairly comfortable. Wind is now blowing. Temp is 43 with a wind chill of 36. Should be the last day that feels like winter for some time. Radar is showing some pretty intense snow squalls in SW VA and SE KY. Typical early March wx.
  2. Carvers Gap
    There is a remembrance service at 6:00PM central in Cookeville. A press conference will follow immediately which will provide updates. Local authorities are still trying to locate dozens of people in an effort to determine their whereabouts. They may very well be in hotels or with family members. Trying times for sure. If folks on the forum know a displaced person due to the weather events of last night, make sure they have checked-in with local authorities.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Some good radio work being done by 94.1 out of Cookeville, TN. Been some great information all day on the station. Survey team reported 175+mph winds and was on the ground for 50 miles. Nashville area was listed as an EF3. They will be in Putnman Co tomorrow to investigate the damage there. So, we should get some updates about the intensity on the Plateau after their work there. https://newstalk941.com
  4. Carvers Gap
    With La Nina conditions forecast to develop, will be interesting to see the range of observations from the beginning of this thread to the last. An incredibly stormy night has come to an end. The sun is out. Please reference the severe thread regarding the powerful tornado that swept through middle TN overnight. Our thoughts and prayers are with the people in that region. If you are a new poster and not comfortable in posting in the pattern discussion thread, this is a great place to start. Give it a shot!
  5. Carvers Gap
    One of my former students is working radio right now in Cookeville. He has been on the air for twelve hours straight.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Just awful.
  7. Carvers Gap
    My thoughts and prayers are with those families affected by the tornado. Hate to hear about your brother's and mom's homes @Matthew70.
  8. Carvers Gap
    @Stovepipe, when do you plant your tomato and pepper seeds? Also, when do you drop them in the ground...seems like you put yours in earlier than me? I am considering an earlier start this year...
  9. Carvers Gap
    You wouldn't be a true member of the forum if topography couldn't screw you out of snow(by usually more than one scenario). "Downsloping FTW" should be the subform motto. Unless of course there is a flooding threat, then it enhances the rainfall. LOL
  10. Carvers Gap
    February at TRI had seven days with at least some snow recorded at the airport. Snow totals for February at TRI were 2.9" with thunder snow reported in Kingsport/Sullivan Co during one convective band. Its temp average of 42.5 was the same as January. Feb was +3.5 in regards to temps. TRI had eleven days BN for temps in Feb vs just one in Jan. We had 8.23" of rain which is 4.78" above normal, over twice our normal amount. After beginning incredibly warm, the last ten days of the month were BN. We have spoken many times on this sub-forum during several of the past years about the importance of November. While November certainly didn't make a re-appearance, the wild swings in temperatures from October did. And we have also talked on the sub-forum about that. As it turns out, February was sort of a mix of November and October. Looks like we are now headed for more AN temps, excluding next weekend's cold front. Overall, DJF will likely be one for the record books. This wasn't as bad as a 90s winter since February did have some snow, but it was quite similar. In retrospect, it had a lot of similarities to 88-89 with the cold simply being displaced into November vs early December. One other difference is the snow at lower elevations in February. But it also had some similarities to other warm years of that decade which featured several El Nino years. Weather models during February did a nice job of placing features at 500. Modeling for most of winter featured a cold bias. However, the Euro/EPS MJO was decent relative to other models. Overall, after a shaky start, the EPS from mid-January to now has performed remarkably well(at 500) though it did miss a cold front(at range) during mid-month. The Weeklies on most modeling were sketchy.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 18z RGEM pretty much nailed that convective band. Impressive.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I bet I-81 is not pleasant about right now.
  13. Carvers Gap
    From MRX at 3:15PM.... Showers across the northern half of the area will continue to taper off through the rest of the afternoon. With steep lapse rates, we have been seeing snow with temperatures in the mid and upper 30s, which is preventing accumulations at lower elevations. That should continue through the rest of the day. As the midlevel shortwave trough departs, we should see a brief lull this evening before a stronger trough approaches tonight. This disturbance will bring a surge of cold air aloft that will steepen lapse rates once again, and shift low level winds to the NW while increasing them to 30-40 kts. This will be favorable for convective snow showers in the northern half, with orographic enhancement squeezing out additional moisture across the higher terrain. This second round is expected to arrive in the Plateau between 02-04Z, with peak snowfall in the 04-08Z time frame. The upslope flow will maintain accumulating snow in the mountains until around 12-15Z. The Winter Weather Advisory will be expanded slightly to include all of SW VA, with the emphasis on higher elevations above 2500 ft. The Advisory area can expect a half inch up to 3 inches in higher elevations. The mountains from Monroe to Cocke couties will be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, emphasizing elevations above 3500 ft where 3-7 inches are expected overnight.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Was standing outside taking a photo and bang! LOL. Thundersnow. Have heard 7-8 rumbles of thunder and actually saw some lightning.
  15. Carvers Gap
    @Stovepipe, tomato seedlings are up. Peppers always take longer, but a few of those are up. Eggplant, dill, and basil are up on the seed starting racks. My tomato varieties this year are some early season heirlooms combined with varieties with strong disease resistance. Shooting for some earlier varieties to avoid late season blight and septoria. Since I am starting my own plants from seeds this year, I am hoping that my variety choices and seed starting practices will eliminate some of the disease in my tomatoes a couple of years ago. I also left the garden fallow last summer. I know that stuff stays in the soil for a long time, so hoping this will up my chances for a better harvest of the red fruit. Garlic and bunching onions from the fall are going to be a strong harvest. They are looking really good.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Time to warm it up. I am in favor for the reasons mentioned above. Bring on spring. If there was ever a time for an early spring, now is the time.
  17. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro looked a bit more "robust" with the systems beginning tomorrow afternoon into Saturday. Thought 12z had a little bit of an uptick on a couple of models. Nothing major, but a trend worth watching. Got .5-.75" this AM in west Kingsport. Woke up and looked out the window and thought fog had rolled in. +SN was pouring down. Busses got caught in route. Rest of Kingsport wasn't as bad with just a light dusting. West of I-26 got some nice snow for about 20 mins. Hardest I have seen it snow in a long time. It was ripping.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Both the GFS and Euro at 12z are now suppressing the last wave around March 5th. Euro pops a weak low to our SE and the GFS wasn't that far off.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Edit: Should have said March 6th. Wavelengths changing up are going to make ensembles fairly mortal during the next 3-4 weeks. They have actually been accurate in where they are placing 500 features since about Jan 20(bringing in the LR at that time point) - they meaning the EPS.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Another cold front beginning to be a consistent feature around March 7th on modeling. Speaking of head fakes, that (the never ending western trough) has been a major head fake for about five-six weeks. That March 7th feature was at one point a fairly warm week on modeling. Seems like the warm-up is getting chopped up and pushed back. The 12z Euro operational has a warm-up, but that trough coming through on the 7th. Looks like it has another lined up after that. Variable weather in early spring. Who knew? LOL.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Nothing to add to Jeff's comments regarding this weekend. As for the period after Feb 27-March3, looks warmer on the EPS...though the control is not. It is just more of the same. Honestly, with COVID19 not being contained...I am all for the weather warming up ASAP. Let's see if that virus likes warm temps and higher sun angles. In other words, we need cold and flu season to end like yesterday. We need the weather to warm IMHO. I am 100% for it after this weekend. The warm look on the MJO might actually be a blessing in disguise.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Going to roll with moderate to strong La Nina, -QBO, MJO 4-6 quiet, more blocking than normal. Lots of conflicting signals which result in periods of extreme warmth and extreme cold that result in slightly AN temps, but bouts of severe cold at times. Going to be moderate/strong Nina vs high latitude blocking. I am not sold on a -NAO, but do feel the EPO/PNA and AO will cooperate at times. I feel it is a decent gamble to say that it will be cooler than DJF from this winter. Just hoping the La Nina doesn't take hold during summer as it will get very hot and dry if so. I suspect August and September have the potential to really be warm and dry.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Interesting. Definitely supports comments made yesterday in this thread and some off-and-on discussions in the sub-forum.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The 0z CMC shows that situation quite well as does the 0z Euro.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Looks like we might get some rain changing to snow with the system around the 27th - nothing huge at this point but that could change as that has the potential to be stronger. That sets the stage for any northern stream energy that follows to be snow. Models have hinted at some weak, embedded energy coming through after the cutter and inland runner combo pass through on the 27th . If that energy is real, that is probably our best chance at snow. It is worth noting that energy at this time of year is often under-modeled at this range in my experience and also that latitude will come well north. So, just some things to think about. We want energy to get buried to our south and work back this direction.
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