Carvers Gap

The 12z Euro operational has four potential systems of varying strength. Has an inland/Apps runner, a system that dives into the back of that, a northern stream system, and another northern stream system right after that waiting in the Plains. We have done reasonably well when the Feb pattern gets cold injected into an active storm pattern. Let's hope that continues. Been pretty fun.

Good to see yo posting, JacCee.

Light to leaning moderate snow in west Kingsport. Starting to stick IMBY. Been snow from the get go.

@tnweathernut gets credit for that thought. Pretty wild!

I just want to see someone pull off the rare feat of going much AN for temps and normal snowfall for the month of February. Chattanooga may already be there. They could do much above for temps and snow. LOL.

12z Euro now has something trackable during the 180 timeframe.

@Holston_River_Rambler, here you go. These are three hour increments. And THANK YOU for your gifs!!!

With precip type? LOL. I didn't say what I meant the first time. Sorry. Just trying to see the system move in. Looks like 12 hour duration event in NE TN on the Euro...

Yeah, I think Jeff likes to use that model. I just can't remember which circumstances. It really moved northwest at 12z. Looks like the Euro.

Best run of he year for the Euro. @Holston_River_Ramblerare you able to gif a 6 hour qpf type(edit) of the forum area? If not, I can post pics.

@nrgjeff, do we still like the WRF ARW? That was a pretty big improvement at 12z for most folks south of I-40 and much of E TN...

LOL. I understand it now...I was like, what airport code is CWA? Figured it was a joke, just didn't get the acronym. As an airport code, it is still funny. Our system is basically going to go to central Wisconsin...

Sounds like their supercomputer lost its ability to speak to everyone else for a bit. LOL. Welp...

Models showing some potential around 177 on the 12z run of the GFS. The CMC is close. Looks like potential for a phase. Timing is everything so it may take some time to work that out. 0z Euro had the northern feature but didn't phase it.

CWA?

Wonder if they are having data problems?

Is the GFS running slow?

Time of day is a big deal at this time of year. Agree with those mentioning that. I also agree with John about true overrunning events arriving early. These types of systems are just pain in the butt to forecast though. Late winter/early spring storms usually have a card or two up their sleeves. For future reference, it has come north quite a bit to where it almost where it was originally forecast. So, need to file that away from any potential future windows. LR modeling after this event is not exactly benign. So, we probably need to learn as much as we can from this one as there may be more like it. I suspect this has the potential to continue to track northward right up to verification with some hiccups at times. I originally thought it would stop. Looks like it paused and is trending north again. That tells us that we need systems tracing south of Birmingham(at 5-6 days) to have a chance in this situation at this time of year. But the great thing about this thread and others, so many great contributors both new and old. I say it all the time, that is my favorite part of these events - just seeing the growth of this forum. This subform began with a handful of patrons. Still plenty of room to grow, but I think this is what we envisioned when we first started kicking this around years ago. The Tennessee Valley region IMHO is incredibly difficult to figure out because it has so many unique nuances, regions, and micro-climates. We aren't really the Plains and we really don't have a true EC climate. These systems leave the Rockies and roll 1,500 miles over flat land and then slam into the Plateau, the Smokies, and roll over the TN river twice. (not forgetting about the Ozarks, Arkansas folks...they count as well). I say this often, our weather is impacted by the Pacific, Great Lakes, GOM, and Atlantic. Not many places can say that. Things can and do get wild. Anyway, again just glad to see all of the interaction.

This is true. Great little short range model. Still not a big hit, but I though about a 100-125 mile jog to the Northwest.

@Holston_River_Rambler has shown himself to be a master thread namer.

Same here, especially on global models. I generally find precip to be a few hours ahead of modeling during many events, but not all. RAP and HRRR is easier for me - I just count the hours to whatever I am looking at. LOL On another note, medium and LR modeling continues to be quite cold - as in BN stuff w duration. The 0z EPS has many BN days and very few AN days. We will see if that holds. The EMON is COD city for the MJO. If so, the inhibitor of the EPO ridge is lessened.

What is the time of day for this event? Time of day makes a huge difference right now. In other words...when does it hit Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga, and TRI? I think daytime is a no-go if this is marginal. Nighttime is workable.

I usually like to use it once it is under 48 hours.

For sure, I am not unconvinced that this doesn't fall as rain if we don't get strong enough rates. Very much a northward trend since yesterday. At some point that trend stops. Need to see enough moisture but not WAA that is wicked strong. I had said a few days I didn't want to be in the bullseye at 5-6 days out. I am not sure we want to be in the bullseye with 72 hours out. LOL. Still a little wiggle room. Just give me the big high and plenty of precip. Heck, even slow it down a bit.

The 0z EPS hints at another stormy window near the end of the month with the control sending another nasty slider across the forum area.