Carvers Gap

We have been kicking that around a bit in Jax's ENSO thread. Mixed signals at this range and understandably so. I am willing to sacrifice next winter if we can get a strong La Nina. We have not had a moderate/strong La Nina in several years. A weak La Nina often has severe extreme of both heat and cold. Moderate and strong La Ninas tend to favor very warm patterns in the East, but the following winters can be quite cold. Basically, we need to drop the ENSO equivalent of an ice cube in ENSO region 4. A Nina would likely help the SST the gradient in the Pacific (again, TyphoonTip has talked about the lack of gradient during the past two winters). I am not convinced next winter will be an improvement, but if we get a La Nina...it could set the stage for some good winters. One area that will be interesting is whether strong blocking develops as there is some correlation to that happening the year or two after a solar min. I would lean AN for next winter(with cold extremes embedded), but that is super weak sauce from this range. LOL.

Looks like since the AMO flipped(just looking at that graphic), we have had three moderate/strong Ninas that have been cold during winter and seven AN. I always thought 95-96 was weaker off the top of my head. That said, seems like as long as the Nina is not a super La Nina...we get lots of extreme cold and warm. I definitely think we needs as strong of a La Nina as we can get - even if we have to sacrifice a winter to do so. Seems like the following winters after Ninas can be pretty good. We are long overdue for this shake-up, and I think this has had a lot to do with the AN temps in the Pacific. @john11 can probably answer this, John how do we do during strong and moderate La Ninas. Seems like weaker ones are colder.

Nah, you did really well with the naming. Some rich possibilities for names in that Feb27-March3 window.

Oh yeah, understood they comments regarding spring. Was just picking your brain about later in the year.

Thanks for the heads-up. So, western Pac convection (as long as it is not in phase 6) is not a terrible thing in March, right? In other words some of the MJO phase(maybe phase 5) that were warm during the heart of winter can actually be cool during later winter and early spring. Or do you feel that the western Pac is in conflict with the prolonged cold signal?

Agree, if this came in at night...we would have had 4-5" of snow IMBY.

Going to make one edit. The Feb 27th window may actually last until March 3rd. The EPS hints at another system around March 2nd. Big trough rolls through on the 27th with a chance at an inland runner, but could also be a cutter. Then, as the Euro operational depicts at 12z, the cold pours into the East, and a few northern stream features(not seen many of those this winter) have potential to work into the pattern. As that cold matures or leaves, seems there is a window for another slider or one that phases. Per the 12z, there are varying chances embedded in that window at the front end of the window, the middle, and as it departs. Hopefully, we get a couple of more chances to track. The first chance is now under 7 days out. I think our best chances come as the cold spreads into the area and the northern stream sends a few pieces of energy into cold that is already in place. Might have a chance to be our strongest cold(by anomaly) all winter.

@nrgjeff I know strong Ninas are not great for winter in the East. However, given how 3.4 has amped phase 6 of the MJO this current winter...do you feel that a Nina winter might actually be an improvement even with its leaning towards a warm pattern? Not sure we see a winter warmer than this one even with a La Nina. I know we do see extremes - both cold and warm. Also, looks like that might push a warm end to summer and beginning to fall(referencing Jax's last post)? Anyway, I think a La Nina of moderate or strong strength is needed to "reset" the Pacific SSTs. Been a while since we have had a good one and the Pacific reflects that I think...

Temps...we will bad mouthed for many years. Been terrible. LOL. This is what an active STJ can do if any cold can get into a rainy pattern. We have said it some on this forum...it can and does snow during a warm pattern. It is one reason most folks really stay clear of making snow predictions for winter. Snow doesn't always correlate to temps. That said, most areas north of I-40 will likely still finish BN for snowfall and maybe well below. However, definitely makes events like these easier to appreciate. BTW, I only got about an inch of snow from this. Chattanooga has more snowfall this season than I do and awesome for. them. They are always great to cheer for those who live in locations which get more snow on average. For TRI, not a big storm. JC might have gotten a bit more. However, after staring at d10-15 patterns for two months, it is nice to see three events that had frozen precip. Still an underperforming winter for areas north of 40(and likely western forum areas have not too well - @AMZ8990 country). Looks like one more window between ~ Feb 27-March1. EPS wants to dump the trough West around d12(but still has the aforementioned window). Little bit of a break in continuity, but I am suspicious anytime it digs into the Southwest - I won't be surprised if the current pattern just continues with periodic troughs and cold. Its control holds with continuity by having an extended window for winter weather after Feb 27 to basically the end of the run. Main problem is the Weeklies ran off the 0z run, and that means they are less reliable than normal as 12z broke to a different pattern late in the run. Just glad we have had something to track and maybe still have have a few more events to track. One last thought, it is possible that the EPS is back to its old games from November, but we will see. Who knows. Good thing is the operational is better than the d10-15 which is a nice change!

The 12z Euro operational has four potential systems of varying strength. Has an inland/Apps runner, a system that dives into the back of that, a northern stream system, and another northern stream system right after that waiting in the Plains. We have done reasonably well when the Feb pattern gets cold injected into an active storm pattern. Let's hope that continues. Been pretty fun.

Good to see yo posting, JacCee.

Light to leaning moderate snow in west Kingsport. Starting to stick IMBY. Been snow from the get go.

@tnweathernut gets credit for that thought. Pretty wild!

I just want to see someone pull off the rare feat of going much AN for temps and normal snowfall for the month of February. Chattanooga may already be there. They could do much above for temps and snow. LOL.

12z Euro now has something trackable during the 180 timeframe.

@Holston_River_Rambler, here you go. These are three hour increments. And THANK YOU for your gifs!!!

With precip type? LOL. I didn't say what I meant the first time. Sorry. Just trying to see the system move in. Looks like 12 hour duration event in NE TN on the Euro...

Yeah, I think Jeff likes to use that model. I just can't remember which circumstances. It really moved northwest at 12z. Looks like the Euro.

Best run of he year for the Euro. @Holston_River_Ramblerare you able to gif a 6 hour qpf type(edit) of the forum area? If not, I can post pics.

@nrgjeff, do we still like the WRF ARW? That was a pretty big improvement at 12z for most folks south of I-40 and much of E TN...

LOL. I understand it now...I was like, what airport code is CWA? Figured it was a joke, just didn't get the acronym. As an airport code, it is still funny. Our system is basically going to go to central Wisconsin...

Sounds like their supercomputer lost its ability to speak to everyone else for a bit. LOL. Welp...

Models showing some potential around 177 on the 12z run of the GFS. The CMC is close. Looks like potential for a phase. Timing is everything so it may take some time to work that out. 0z Euro had the northern feature but didn't phase it.

CWA?

Wonder if they are having data problems?