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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Not exactly high amplitude, eh? What is weird the GFS and CMC at 12z(and for many runs prior) appear to show a pattern that has less influence by the MJO as evidenced by the SER be less strong and cold fronts showing some ability to push eastward beginning around hour 120. And then where is the MJO headed....trajectory is towards cold phases? I have said for a week or so that this pattern after the 10th had not looked modeled correctly. That cold front on the 14th makes me even more suspicious. It is almost like the November cold pattern is battling the MJO. However, the weaker that MJO gets...the stronger the November pattern gets. Finally, I think the changing wavelengths are currently giving models fits and about to get worse. Not saying this is the case this time around, but when wavelengths change...storms seems to be embedded in those changes.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Will wait for the ECMF MJO to update as well and then add some further comments. It either needs to be at low amplitude or hustling out of 5/6 into 7 or COD. Right now, we will take the COD. And to further illustrate that the MJO is a great tool and is driving the NA pattern, but it can have its hiccups...Chattanooga just received 3-4" of snow during phase 5 of the MJO at low amplitude.
  3. Carvers Gap
    It is the EPS vs all comers this morning including its own operational. The operational finally has the cold front on the 14th. Want to see just how bad the Euro bias is in the Southwest. Go to Tropical Tidbits and select hour 120 from the 0z Euro op run this am. Then, select the 500 heights anomaly and North America view. Then, click previous runs. Goes from a trough stuck in the West to a cold front in the East w/ twenty to forty degree BN departures at times over the TN and Ohio River valleys instead of a massive SER. Still looks like a cutter that precedes that cold, but as we saw this week a trough with cold air during this active pattern can produce. Right now looks bone dry after it rolls through, but who knows. And let's be clear, it is not just the Euro that had the problem with the SW trough, the GFS had it as well but corrected quicker. For sure, the MJO is lousy...but February is a month where pretty much everything has to be watched if cold manages to get into the pattern - especially with this really active pattern in terms of precip. BTW, I take the EPS against all comers....but it is worthy of note that the 0z Euro, 6z GFS, and 0z CMC don't seem to be huge fans of the SER through 240. I feel like a broken record, but I think modeling has been fooling around with that Southwest cut-off and the actual outcome is different than a cut-off sitting there for 16 days(some hyperbole intended) and just spinning. I think what we will see is what we saw this past week. We see warmth build, but a trough manages to make it eastward. Might even see 2-3 more of those before the month ends, beginning with the time frame of the 14th.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Been up on the Plateau for a couple of days and am home now finally. Rolled through right after the snow finished up - beautiful sight. Haven't been able really dig into modeling much. With two advisory level events for the window of Feb 5-10, bout all we could have asked for in a base warm pattern. Very happy for our folks who have received snow this week. Still a lot of uncertainty moving forward with Feb 14th having a cool or cold front. Will continue to monitor the 14th timeframe for an outside chance. Again, still not convinced modeling has the upcoming pattern nailed down. Will try to post tomorrow. But what a fun day following all of those posts by many who have waited patiently for snow for several years.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Way overdue for the SE areas of the forum. Enjoy seeing the pics. Keep them coming!
  6. Carvers Gap
    Some very heavy radar returns on the west side of this system!
  7. Carvers Gap
    Awesome score!!!
  8. Carvers Gap
    Radar looks healthy!
  9. Carvers Gap
    Have to say...heckuva storm thread name.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Cause you know I am going to be driving the family van down from the Plateau tomorrow around 18z...so we know this is going to verify. LOL.
  11. Carvers Gap
    One last thing in the LR and I will try to keep from cluttering the thread with LR posts since we have something tomorrow to track tomorrow, @holston the GFS has an Aleutian pattern that has low after low in that area....just one right after another. Also, definitely fun tracking stuff that pops back up in the short range.
  12. Carvers Gap
    When is that moving in tomorrow? Would be awesome for the SE TN folks to finally have something to track. Been truly rough sledding there.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I had quit watching that system closely because it had weakened so much. There are some decent lollipops on those maps. Those little systems are fun to track. .
  14. Carvers Gap
    Good call, 3K NAM looks decent in those areas.
  15. Carvers Gap
    But I think we can say this...very active precip pattern with potential for cold fronts during the 10th-20th which is far better than I expected earlier in the week.
  16. Carvers Gap
    So, the CMC and GFS at 12z have a similar setup: big highs that are pressing south and east and a gradient type storm late next week. IMHO, gradient storms can be super difficult to find where the snow line sets-up. Some years, those gradient storms are further south than depicted. Have seen several I though twould hammer MBY in years past, and they went to the GC. Seems this year they might verify north of modeling at this range due to modeling cold bias. So, we want to see that trend southward and then come back IMHO. But again, tricky to work out.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I understood and agree.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think the Euro buried the current trough in the Southwest on one or two runs and never ejected it. In reality...it did dig, but it came on out. These runs where they dig, sit/spin, and dig a western trough are a bit suspicious. Again, the MJO does call for a SER and troughing in the West. Originally, we thought this would be a more progressive pattern with the cold pressing East at times. It may be that we are just in a base warm pattern where the cold presses at times vs a total shut-out pattern. Not sure.
  19. Carvers Gap
    CMC has a similar set-up at 12z around 156 with a similarly strong high. I think what is happening is that as we get closer to verification those cutoff lows are not just sitting there and digging...they are kicking out. Might be that we are going to have to watch for that. Now, the trough should dig into the West given the MJO...but right now I am suspicious of any low just spinning in the Southwest.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Definitely something afoot... Thing is the GFS and CMC may have potentially sniffed out a cold front around the 14th that the Euro missed and a cool front around the 12th. . After that, who knows...I think there is a really tendency for models to bury these cutoff and it is screwing up the run at that point. My guess is those cut offs either move east or get completely cut-off under a ridge. I am wondering if the changing wavelengths(as we approach spring) are causing havoc as well? But what looked like a really warm period between the 10th and 20th may at least have some things of passing interest. But again, sometimes those cutoffs are legit. But to me, looks like way too many cut-offs and that is likely feedback. OTH, keep sticking cut-offs in the Southwest and they are going to eventually head eastward.
  21. Carvers Gap
    1035-1039 hp riding over the top of a low running through the GC states. Hard not to like that look. Definitely a chance that jogs north and the cold verifies in KY or the Ohio River Valley, but verbatim....good look on that run.
  22. Carvers Gap
    All GFS runs for the rest of the winter have an assumed TIFWIW caveat and a yes we know caveat. But the 12z GFS has a snowstorm at 156.
  23. Carvers Gap
    To be clear, 21 fourth quarter points would be fine by me. LOL.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Picked up a strong band of snow here IMBY. Light stuff that dusted the ground, car tops, root tops, bushes, and ground that isn't under water. Nice to look at.
  25. Carvers Gap
    To tag onto Holston's post above and to illustrate the strength of this trough that is passing through...here is the advisory/warning product map for the United States this morning. Winter weather advisories stretch from NE MS through middle/ west TN at lower elevations w higher elevation products issued for the Plateau an eastern mountains. Flooding was experienced in many areas which was then followed by light snow accumulations. This morning snow was was falling in Kingsport while simultaneously we were experiencing some of the worst urban flooding in recent memory. The flooding and winter threats were discussed extensively for several days on this forum in specificity by many. Again, a great job by everyone.
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