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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Cause you know I am going to be driving the family van down from the Plateau tomorrow around 18z...so we know this is going to verify. LOL.
  2. Carvers Gap
    One last thing in the LR and I will try to keep from cluttering the thread with LR posts since we have something tomorrow to track tomorrow, @holston the GFS has an Aleutian pattern that has low after low in that area....just one right after another. Also, definitely fun tracking stuff that pops back up in the short range.
  3. Carvers Gap
    When is that moving in tomorrow? Would be awesome for the SE TN folks to finally have something to track. Been truly rough sledding there.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I had quit watching that system closely because it had weakened so much. There are some decent lollipops on those maps. Those little systems are fun to track. .
  5. Carvers Gap
    Good call, 3K NAM looks decent in those areas.
  6. Carvers Gap
    But I think we can say this...very active precip pattern with potential for cold fronts during the 10th-20th which is far better than I expected earlier in the week.
  7. Carvers Gap
    So, the CMC and GFS at 12z have a similar setup: big highs that are pressing south and east and a gradient type storm late next week. IMHO, gradient storms can be super difficult to find where the snow line sets-up. Some years, those gradient storms are further south than depicted. Have seen several I though twould hammer MBY in years past, and they went to the GC. Seems this year they might verify north of modeling at this range due to modeling cold bias. So, we want to see that trend southward and then come back IMHO. But again, tricky to work out.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I understood and agree.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think the Euro buried the current trough in the Southwest on one or two runs and never ejected it. In reality...it did dig, but it came on out. These runs where they dig, sit/spin, and dig a western trough are a bit suspicious. Again, the MJO does call for a SER and troughing in the West. Originally, we thought this would be a more progressive pattern with the cold pressing East at times. It may be that we are just in a base warm pattern where the cold presses at times vs a total shut-out pattern. Not sure.
  10. Carvers Gap
    CMC has a similar set-up at 12z around 156 with a similarly strong high. I think what is happening is that as we get closer to verification those cutoff lows are not just sitting there and digging...they are kicking out. Might be that we are going to have to watch for that. Now, the trough should dig into the West given the MJO...but right now I am suspicious of any low just spinning in the Southwest.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Definitely something afoot... Thing is the GFS and CMC may have potentially sniffed out a cold front around the 14th that the Euro missed and a cool front around the 12th. . After that, who knows...I think there is a really tendency for models to bury these cutoff and it is screwing up the run at that point. My guess is those cut offs either move east or get completely cut-off under a ridge. I am wondering if the changing wavelengths(as we approach spring) are causing havoc as well? But what looked like a really warm period between the 10th and 20th may at least have some things of passing interest. But again, sometimes those cutoffs are legit. But to me, looks like way too many cut-offs and that is likely feedback. OTH, keep sticking cut-offs in the Southwest and they are going to eventually head eastward.
  12. Carvers Gap
    1035-1039 hp riding over the top of a low running through the GC states. Hard not to like that look. Definitely a chance that jogs north and the cold verifies in KY or the Ohio River Valley, but verbatim....good look on that run.
  13. Carvers Gap
    All GFS runs for the rest of the winter have an assumed TIFWIW caveat and a yes we know caveat. But the 12z GFS has a snowstorm at 156.
  14. Carvers Gap
    To be clear, 21 fourth quarter points would be fine by me. LOL.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Picked up a strong band of snow here IMBY. Light stuff that dusted the ground, car tops, root tops, bushes, and ground that isn't under water. Nice to look at.
  16. Carvers Gap
    To tag onto Holston's post above and to illustrate the strength of this trough that is passing through...here is the advisory/warning product map for the United States this morning. Winter weather advisories stretch from NE MS through middle/ west TN at lower elevations w higher elevation products issued for the Plateau an eastern mountains. Flooding was experienced in many areas which was then followed by light snow accumulations. This morning snow was was falling in Kingsport while simultaneously we were experiencing some of the worst urban flooding in recent memory. The flooding and winter threats were discussed extensively for several days on this forum in specificity by many. Again, a great job by everyone.
  17. Carvers Gap
    This is why I don't go anywhere without the EPS. When we started talking about the trough this weekend, it was ~15 days ago. IMHO, pretty good work by this forum working through the pros and cons to the look. This is Holston's EPS loop from 12z on January 23rd... Nailing a trough placement from 15 days out is impressive. It may have a cold bias due to the anomalous warmth from the past several weeks, but it did very well with this trough at 500. Also, it should be noted that the GFS/CMC combo did fairly well with this. Even more impressive is the trough is lifting out at the end of this run, and the components for next week's western cutoff are descending southward along the spine of the Rockies. While modeling has been less than stellar this year, this was a good look. Interestingly, I will dig back through some more posts later, but I believe the Euro operational erroneously dug this trough into the Southwest and kept it there. (edit...The main error with the EPS is that its timing from fifteen days ago was maybe 24-30 hours off...which is not bad at all from that range.). But the idea of three waves running a front (w the last being our shot) has been on models for more many, many runs.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Looks to me like another cold front on Feb 14th. My guess is the Euro is under-modeling that system if real. Remember how the Euro backed off temps for last night's and today's system(and into the weekend) to the point it barely had any negative anomalies at all? Here is what it has now for hour 12. Below are the 6z initialized temps for hour 12. Departures range from 5 to 20 degrees. Negative departures(not as cold as below) are forecast to remain in place until Sunday evening. Major differences in modeling begin as early as mid-week next week. The GFS and CMC still handle the cutoff in the Southwest much differently. The Euro(and this is an opinion) is having issues with that cutoff in the Southwest(edit...a well known bias, but also sometimes verifies). Is that causing it to struggle in the mid-range? Plenty of arguments in either direction. The MJO heading into phase 5 this morning supports it. But if I was going to take any model against all others(which it is currently), it would be the Euro/EPS combo. That said, IMHO it is again under-doing a potential trough centered around the 14th. I think it might not hurt to blend the Euro op and the GFS/CMC operationals. The first is likely too warm and the other two are likely too cold. Next few runs will tell me if that hunch is correct.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Got a brief but moderate band of snow here. Rooftops are white. Glad to see some you all did pretty well. Always a minor miracle to get snow right smack in the middle of a warm winter. Looks like snow showers are in NE TN for the morning with much of the best lift heading for the mountains w this wave. Another healthier round of snow is in middle TN heading ESE.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Beautiful look and exactly why we have been tracking this for so long. Good luck to everyone in middle TN and to everyone up on the Plateau.
  21. Carvers Gap
    And now the 18z GEFS has matched the operational. Not getting too hyped about that, but interesting for sure to see large scale changes to the 500 pattern at relatively close range on an ensemble. Gotta see the EPS bend before serious consideration, but that is another model flipping a good chunk of its run.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Definitely an element of a +PNA on the GFS after the 10th.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GEFS again has the cold front and the storm on the ~14th. After that it wises up and has more zonal and some western trough after 300. So, looks like we may fight off the SER until after the 14th? Still don't think modeling after the 10th is nailed down. Pretty crazy given that is only about four days away. Still have my doubts on how much and how long any western trough can hang in there. The ridge pattern might be getting pushed back for once?
  24. Carvers Gap
    So the 12z ICON, GFS, CMC, and Euro(much colder) show fairly significant changes at the surface after Feb 10th. The GEFS looks much different after 300. Not sure a soul trusts the GEFS at LR anymore nor should they. GEPS and EPS at 12z not biting, though the EPS control looks very GFS like around 300. I am going to need to see another model suite before giving more than passing consideration that the global operationals are onto something, especially without EPS support. Worth watching for sure and interesting to discuss...but going to need modeling to back-up those earlier runs. Ensembles will be slower to change, and that is worth noting, but the EPS did not budge. Time will tell.
  25. Carvers Gap
    There are winter weather advisories up for portions of middle TN now. Holston has even started a thread for that event. I don't think anything is a given this winter, but I think some accumulation is likely in northern middle and the Plateau. However, people in Nashville know the routine. Not been an easy score there for a while.
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