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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Last comment on the 18z GFS, as long as it has the "Vancouver to Boise to LA to the Pacific to Baja 500 special" beginning at 200...I just can believe it. CMC had the same deal. The Euro was a much more believable evolution.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I do agree that Feb finishes above normal...The first four days of that month will make it very difficult to have any other solution.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I am game.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS is pretty much perfect in terms of track. Snow falls in middle TN. Give me that track AND a storm of that intensity and I am good - no open wave or weak sauce storms. That is a Miller A and a textbook one. 850s crashing into the back of the storm. It could be rain, but that is a great track. Temps are falling into the 30s as it passes. If it wasn't this winter, I would be pretty excited about that. Really a beautiful look.
  5. Carvers Gap
    First thing on the Weeklies. The PV at 500(essentially the TPV) is very consolidated during the last 2.5 weeks of Feb. Then, it gets disrupted by seasonal wavelengths during Feb. The question, I have...Is that right? The 12z Euro operational basically splits the SPV by d10 or at least really disrupts it. The American model brings the PV back together. Do we believe they are correct? My hunch is that the cold sets up over Hudson Bay. I can't decide if I believe the tailing trough holds in the West for that long. It could, but the PV forecast will have to be correct and we must assume the cold won't push. I will look at the MJO regions later tonight. I will say, I feel like the Monday EPS gave us a pretty good heads-up to the mid-month warm-up with its MJO look. Anyway, last I will say and it is a LONG shot, but we have had some big snowstorms during phases 4-5 I think. @John1122would know. Again, a long shot but the MJO I "think" loses some of its hold during late winter. Someone, feel free to correct that. But yeah, warm look by the Weeklies. But we trust the Weeklies to be right? Nah, just when they are warm. LOL. I normally don't punt a month, so I will hold out a bit. But if we continue the trends of past winters, March could have some chances or it could be terrible - true diplomacy right there.
  6. Carvers Gap
    It's because your name is spelled wrong in the panic room! LOL. You all messed that up. Anyway, that is a pretty washed out look. I will dig a bit deeper. That run may be right, but it looked like a bunch of feedback. We have found multiple ways to warm anomalies this winter. Patterns have varied, but the result has not. Also, very important to remember that the Weeklies don't do well during shoulder season. But yeah, a step back for sure. Bout the time we are all ready for spring, you know it is going to be cold. Book it! Just so the rest of you know I am realistic. I put my seed order in two weeks ago for the garden. The seeds for this year's garden are already on my counter! We will keep hunting snowstorms though. I won't be surprised to see ensembles break the other way and offer a couple of more 2-3 windows during Feb though it doesn't look good now. They are still stuck between two camps. I do think the base warm pattern continues with troughs rolling through. Looks like next week will be our best chance for a while. Hopefully somebody will score with it. And also, thanks for putting that together. Lastly, I think what is probably going on is the MJO this AM is that the EPS showed some signs of heading into four on one of its variations. The recent BOMM is COD all the way. So, if we want to see some changes need to see an SSW or the MJO go into the COD. Rally cap time for sure.
  7. Carvers Gap
    As noted earlier this week, the middle of February favors warm phases of the MJO and a trough in the West - particularly the middle ten days. The first four days will be warm as well. Will be interesting to see the Weeklies. I would like to see how they go from those maps into weeks 3 and 4.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Have we ever left it? My yard hasn't dried out since the mini-drought last fall. LOL. Rain has been a constant.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I will save the future climate talk for other forums... As for the window between Feb 5-7, still a storm signal there. Still a trough at 500 there. That time frame has warmed, but that date range is still almost a week out. Things can and will change. Could get worse and could get better. I am here to track storms. No way I am sticking a fork in a storm one week out with the config at 500 on the Euro. That is a nice storm evolution. But it is fair to say that temps have not trended well. The storm track is still there.
  10. Carvers Gap
    So, how has March looked during the past decade? I have read some stuff about Decembers warming and Marchs cooling by J D'Aleo.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Here is what I have for Januarys(month to date) on PRISM...18, 16, 15, 14, 11, 10, 9, and 8 are BN. I have 8 BN and 4 AN for the past twelve, and seven of the past eleven. Looks like 15 is the question mark. Maybe the last three days were warm? I can see Jan 1-29 for my comparison data for Januarys way back. So, even if we are 6 of the 11 BN, I am not throwing in the towel on winters as a whole at this elevation. It is not like we have had the heart of winter warm each year. Over half of those Januarys, even with the conservative number, are cold. Yeah, this year has been terrible so far. But just no way to know what future winters are going to look like. If we keep with the recent trend of roughly 2/3 being BN, not sure how one can make the claim that winter is over at this elevation. I can understand the reasoning behind canceling this winter, but not sure data supports canceling future winters. It is frustrating for all of us for sure, though. But I know I will be here to finish this winter and be back for the next Lord willing. Storm moves east but is a rainer verbatim. With its almost due north trajectory, would likely be quite strong in reality.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Looking at PRISM data, looks like eight of the last 12?
  13. Carvers Gap
    Is it true that seven of our last eleven Januarys(including this one) dating back to 2009 have been BN?
  14. Carvers Gap
    And again at 12z today there are strong, cold surface highs on the GEFS which are pressing under the trough at 500. I want to see the EPS back this up before commenting further. Honestly, the GEFS is almost a waste of breath in terms of details which is understandable at this range. Just looking for trends at 500.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I think modeling is really struggling with what to do with the trough in the West. The MJO progression favors that and it will win for a time. But one can almost see those wavelengths changing up, and it scrambles the MJO signal. Those long, broad troughs and ridges are sharper. Below is where a I think the second window forms. Likely it is a 2-3 day window centered sometime around the 20th. The trough lifts out of the West and heads into southern Canada. We get a brief long wave trough that we can hope has energy timed correctly. The GEFS, while very shaky at best in its verification, does do this.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at the 12z GEFS, at 228 it has delayed the inevitable eastern SER. Some moderate changes at this point. Edit: After that...very similar. Prior to that, the ridge struggled to form.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I mean I think the message is a trough going into the west after Feb 10(maybe a hair earlier). I had noted that on the Weeklies on Monday. The MJO is going to make a run at 4 and 5 which is very much what is being shown. I guess the question I have is whether we see some cold press that boundary south like we saw on ensembles yesterday at 12z? Again, that really looks like a pattern that would benefit northern Ohio at best. Troughs that have a more north south nature are fairly easy features to place on a map. Their depth and timing are unknown variables that have to be solve of course. When a trough gets placed on a southwest to northeast axis that is very positive, there is massive room for error. the most accurate place is probably the pivot are where the trough originally digs. I think that is why we are seeing modeling feedback in Southern California. How far the elongate trough presses is an unknown. My guess is that the trough will dig West and slowly (over a period of 7-8 days-ish) get kicked at least into the nation's mid-section. That is some sketchy stuff being modeled - meaning the actual outcome is likely different post d10. Modeling is still in two camps. One camp wants to put a trough out West, dig it, and then lift it out. Another camp doesn't want to be there long at all. So far, the operationals at 12z favor really digging it out there during the middle ten days of the month. The second window for a storm in February is possible when that trough gets kicked out. IF Canada fills with cold air and then combine that with changing wavelengths, wild stuff is always a possibility.
  18. Carvers Gap
    @AMZ8990 The CMC did about the same thing last the ICON but a hair to the west - over the TN River area out your way. Arkansas would probably be the beneficiary. Probably is a bit too close to really score, but no way that position is correct this far out. Just means one potential track of a potential storm is through middle TN. So that gives us three models with that track. 0z Euro, 12z ICON, and 12z CMC. Just something to watch. I know sometimes your end of the state takes a back seat, so wanting to make sure to point when you all have a shot.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Right now the GFS is all over the place. I think Jeff called it the "Choose Your Own Adventure" model. It has been for the past few days after d10. Some of its runs are a blast to look at and break down, but...Anyway, I don't think it is wrong about the trough out West. However, that evolution and that 500 low just spinning rarely works out. We just need some really strong cold to start showing up in order to undercut expected ridge at 500 after Feb 10. I like looking at the model just to see what it spits out. Sometimes it finds a piece of corn.
  20. Carvers Gap
    IMHO, the 12z GFS is already off the rails at 252. When modeling starts to dig energy from Idaho into California, the run just goes to pot. It may verify. Heck, I'd like to see if it could be done. Vancouver to Boise to LA just is counter intuitive.
  21. Carvers Gap
    True that. I do like the JMA for big coastals though.
  22. Carvers Gap
    But the Euro was in the West TN camp this morning...so that is a strong card. Still a long way to go, but some potential in the pattern. Again, going to really depend on where that trough diggs and goes neutral. The trend during recent runs is to dig it further west(not in the West) over like Texas. If that happens, west TN would be sitting nice. Additionally, with the positive tilted full-continent trough look after d10, would not be surprised to see the far western end of the state see some frozen precip.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Considering we don't talk about it much...LOL. But it sometimes can throw us a bone. 12z GFS has a similar system at 192. It is further east, but a similar look. I don't worry too much about details at this range, just the potential for an slp to move north. Looks to me like there is reasonable potential for a storm to come out of the GOM depending on where the trough sharpens up and the vort turns neutral. Could be a track anywhere from middle TN to just inside the coast or even the coast.
  24. Carvers Gap
    The 12 ICON has a snowstorm hitting west TN at the end of its run(180). Will be interesting to see the rest of the 12z suite. We are starting to get into at least a range where modeling can start showing at least some idea of that time frame as we get near the 7 days mark.
  25. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, PV looks fairly beat-up late in the 6z run. I wonder how well(this late in the season) the PV can spin back up? If it doesn't split, not sure how well it reconsolidates. If anything, one lean would be that it heads into the HB area which I wonder if ensembles are picking up on that late?
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