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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Edited comment above...not low to mid 20s but low to mid 30s. Bad but not that bad!
  2. Carvers Gap
    From the MRX afternoon disco...excellent write-up BTW today. Sunday looks like the worst day, but the forecast timeframe is not there yet. Should know more tomorrow. There may even be another frost after Sunday. Thursday looks dry but then more rain on Friday as a shortwave moves across the region from out of the Central Plains/Missouri River Valley. While this is happening, another potent shortwave dives down out of Ontario and into the Ohio River Valley. This reinforces the longwave trough across our area and allows cold Canadian air to dive south into the region. This airmass will lead to max temps in the upper 50s and low 60s on Saturday and Sunday which is 10 to 15 degrees below normal. The big story is the overnight lows on Friday and Saturday night. Lows will range from near freezing across the northern areas to the low 40s across the southern TN Valley. Right now, the forecast lows for Saturday night/Sunday morning are only a few degrees off the record low temps. The records min temps for May 10th are as follows: CHA 38 in 1966, TYS 37 in 1906, TRI 32 in 1966.
  3. Carvers Gap
    No changes to yesterday's discussion regarding NE TN. Threat of a freeze and/or frost is still there. The signal for a severe(relative to season) cold snap is now growing. There are now several days which threaten at the very least frost. Models seem to be converging on temps in the low to mid 30s(edit) with all-time record lows for May still on the table.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I think in NE TN, Sunday and Monday(10th and 11th) are the times we will have to watch. The Euro again cooled. The 6z GFS again has a freeze on Sunday morning. The EPS is now quite cold. One week from Sunday, temps over night are forecast to be nearly 15-30 degrees below normal. We need to pull for the Euro as it is just patchy frost over NE TN. The GFS is a hard freeze w damaging frost reaching into northern Alabama and Georgia w Middle and East TN. The 0z GEM is in in the 6z GFS camp for Sunday AM with the freezing line reaching well south of Knoxville. Very much hoping this does not verify as the GEM and GFS show what would be an historically cold air mass on Sunday and Monday mornings(one week). That is absolutely NOT set in stone as we all know the rules about modeling this far out. Again, I know that this year gardening has a much more significant role in our society(and rightfully so)...so just trying to keep people in the know and let them make their own decisions. For those of us(stovepipe and me), we have plants that won't fair well for another week...so tough decision. The frost doesn't worry me as I can just cover plants. The potential freeze over NE TN is the concern, especially if it is 4-6 hours in duration.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Positive trend and a step in the right direction on the 18z GFS is it has removed the hard freeze...Still has plenty of frost for NE TN though. I still don't like seeing the cold trend on all modeling today. Really hoping climatology sticks a fork in those extreme solutions. Light frost we can work around. A mid-May hard freeze is nearly impossible to work around. My solution may just be adding a temporary hoop house for my tomatoes that go into the ground.
  6. Carvers Gap
    I did the same thing! I had to buy some 7" cow pots to save mine and build a hoop house. LOL. Even those are needing planted. Not sure I have 10 more days, but TRI looks nasty for next weekend. If I was in Knoxville, my decision would probably be different. Right now, I have to decide if I can get ten more days out of those plants in containers. Maybe. I have some great looking potatoes already in the ground. I hate to see those get set back. They will come back if frozen, but hate to see them get burned. I may build a hoop house over those. Nothing fancy. Just PVC, rebar, and plastic. Let's hope this modifies!!!!!
  7. Carvers Gap
    A blend of the 12z Euro, GEM, and the GFS still results in all-time record lows(for May) being challenged next weekend in some areas. Fingers crossed for moderation.
  8. Carvers Gap
    I should add that Knoxville is borderline on the Euro, but folks down there will need to keep an eye out. I will assume the GFS is a cold outlier, but even the warmer models are trouble if they cool just a tad more for the Central Valley. NE TN, SW VA, SE KY, the Plateau, and W NC need to really keep a close eye on the situation. Middle TN is not out of the woods either. This is a really pain in the neck BTW. I take no joy in discussing this whatsoever. None. Just discussing this as a courtesy. Seeds are tough to find right now as are some plants. Don't want to waste them.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that caught my attention. I was going to plant this weekend...now I am heading to Lowe's to find the material for about 40' of temporary hoop house. That will be tricky as I won't put the plastic on while we have these hot temps. I will wait until ~Thursday and put the plastic on, but get the hoops in place this weekend. The airmass being shown on the Euro is 10-20 degrees below normal. I guess this is what happens when the PV wraps up to record levels and doesn't release cold on time! LOL - well not really laughing. Let's hope and pray that look modifies as it would be absolutely devastating to regional farmers in NE TN and W NC with strawberries already fruited. The plants will be fine, but the berries would potentially be burned with temps that low. Need to catch a break on this one. I have plants ready to go in this weekend. Going to have to coax them along for another ten days or so. Hate to be making decision based on a model 7-8 days out, but TR and FR are no gimme right now.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro OP had cooled by 5-6 degrees on Sunday(the 10th) and is nearly 15 degrees cooler for the night before. In NE TN they have gone from lows in the 50s on Saturday night(9th) to lows in the upper 30s in NE TN. Essentially, we went from no threat whatsoever in NE TN to patchy frost on Saturday and Sunday evenings next weekend. It didn't cave, but that was a massive bend.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The GEM has lows the following Monday in the mid 20s for NE TN. Areas of Knox Co would be in the 20s as well with downtown in the mid 30s. Anyway, plenty of time for that to change as that is out there in time. Just a heads up. Very bizarre to see two models now showing what would be a record setting event on consecutive nights. Let's hope the Euro holds. Update to follow later this afternoon.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I hear you. I am just across the mountain from you in TRI, and I feel your pain. That is a really ugly look next weekend. I have a small hoop house. May have to rig up a heater if those temps verify. Can you imagine the tree foliage with long duration temps in the 20s(teens at higher elevation)? GEM has temps fairly cold as well now - trended colder this run. Those are all time record lows(for the month of May) being challenged on both of those models for TRI.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Before hitting the panic button, it is going to have to have some support from other modeling at 12z before I believe it. We have been here many times with the GFS. It just gives me incredible pause as sometimes it can get lucky. Will update later after the Euro. So far, the Canadian is not remotely that cold. If I gamble(and set plants out) and it is right, we would lose months of hard work getting plants ready. OTH, if I wait, plants won't start producing fruit until prim blight times. Edit: The GEM is nearly 15 degrees colder than its previous run. Temps in the mid 30s for Sunday(the 10th) morning so far in NE TN...and not done dropping yet. Even those temps would begin to challenge all-time record lows. Update: Dang, the 12z GEM has temps in the low 30s over NE TN. 31 IMBY on that run. That would be several hours at our below freezing in NE TN. If the Euro folks like the GEM, I am going to hold off putting anything else in the ground.
  14. Carvers Gap
    For posterity. Departures from normal. It is day 9 so who knows, right? However, worth keeping an eye out right now as many are planting or have crops in the ground already. Rare to see that kind of output on a model.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Sure hoping the 12z GFS is off its rocker. At 210 it is advertising all-time record lows for TRI with lows well into the 20s in the valleys and teens in the mountains. The bad thing is that temps would be well below freezing for many hours. That would literally kill all foliage on trees right now. Oh, and did I forget to mention it has light snow for NE TN? Not sure I have ever seen the model that cold. Unless my eyes are fooling me, temps would be nearly 30 degrees below normal for much of the eastern 2/3 of TN. Crap. I really don't like the GFS.
  16. Carvers Gap
    April...not warm but incredible amounts of rain as John noted above. Pulled this from FB.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Put this in the obs thread on accident...The 6z GFS continues to scare home gardeners everywhere for next weekend. It may or may not be right - but that is impressive cold being depicted. Fortunately, it is not very good at that range. It now has a hard freeze for NE TN with heavy frost into north GA on Sunday I think. It has temps in the TRI in the mid 20s. The Euro Weeklies (yesterday evening)for next weekend also turned quite chilly w/ -9f departures for NE TN and -7F departures over the Central Valley. The 0z Euro OP is not on board with that(GFS) kind of cold. It has trended colder, but I can't find anything below 40 in E TN. Higher elevations in southwest VA seem especially at risk with this set-up and likely small towns in western NC at higher elevations. Normally, this upcoming weekend is a big weekend for gardeners to get warm crops in the ground. I am probably going to have to stagger planting so that I don't lose everything with a clear night and snap frost. I have already done some of that. If we were to take the GFS and Euro and split the difference...that is still a couple of cold nights next weekend. The problem for many of us is that you can't keep plants indefinitely in containers. Hopefully, 12z and 0z back-off. For now, there is a growing signal of a "close call" next weekend in the valleys of NE TN. This would be a great time to plant with 4-5 really warm days coming up. That would get plants established. If next weekend (and that week after) remain well BN, the growing season may push well into the third week of May - a full month later than last year.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Wow, man. That is unreal!!!
  19. Carvers Gap
    Thanks very much for the insight! The Euro and CMC have been hinting at temps in the low 40s. However, with the GFS putting temps into the low to mid 30s...that means I have to drag the tarps out of the shed again! LOL. I just couldn't find any support for those really cold GFS solutions. Upper 30s we can handle in the garden. Mid 30s get really sketchy in areas where there are dips in the surface. I tend to lean towards the Euro on this one. 12z GFS is already warmer for Thursday next week.
  20. Carvers Gap
    There are a couple of islands in the Holston that we only see when TVA has the generators off. That summer with the drought(where G-burg burned) those islands had grass growing on them. LOL. They rarely had water over them as the feeder streams were so low - even generation schedules rarely flooded them. Past two years, I rarely see those islands at all now. If anything, I have seen some high water marks in those areas that I have never seen before, usually just after big thunderstorms. Might be an adventure today! We got hammered with heavy rain yesterday.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Last year's high on April 30th was 84 at TRI! We will be nearly 25 degrees cooler today. That is crazy as we might not get out of the 50s one year later on the same date. The record high for this date is 89. So, a forecast high of 59 is on the other end of that spectrum.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Interesting nugget from MRX this morning... Temperature wise, it will be a cool day end to April to say the least. Afternoon highs will run 10-15 degrees cooler than average for this time of year. We might actually be close to some record low max temperature values this afternoon. Chattanooga in the south will likely be too warm (forecast to be in the mid 60s with a record low-max in the upper 50s), but the northern part of the forecast area will be very close to record territory today. The record low-max at Tri-Cities is 59 degrees, which is exactly what we`re forecasting. I`ve included a short table below for the calendar day record low max temperatures for April 30th if you`re curious where the climate sites will be at today. Daily Record Low Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-30 58(1925) 51(1925) 59(1978) 61(1978)
  23. Carvers Gap
    @nrgjeff, does the 6zGFS look too cold for late next week TR/F/S? Euro and CMC are nearly 5-10 degrees warmer. Or does the GFS have the hot(in this case cold) hand?
  24. Carvers Gap
    The EPS today backed off a little on the cold next week, but the 18z GFS is straight cold towards the end of next week. Multiple frosts being depicted well into the eastern valley by next weekend and into the LR. This would be past the frost free date for my area, and would be a great time for the GFS to be wrong. That likely means about a two week delay in putting in my garden. Summer stuff will be planted 2-3 weeks late this year. Going to be a much shorter growing season this year - at least on the front end. With Nina "never ending summer" on tap for fall, I should be able to make that up.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Trying to decide when to plant my warm weather crops. I really want to drop them in the ground this weekend, but the 12z GFS pretty much sucks(not the model...just the weather). At 240, it has snow in eastern Sullivan County on May 9th! I know, day 10...but that cold signal has been there for a few runs. The problem with waiting is that disease like blight shows up in July. If tomatoes get planted late, blight will wipe them out later in the season here in the humid valley areas. I had quit looking at modeling until @tnweathernut sent me the cold news this morning. If we plant late and then get drought during July, very bad combo for producing peppers and tomatoes. If I don't plant this weekend, I am going to have to nurse these plants along in tight quarters for another week in the hoop house.
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