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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    That is a great set-up. No idea if it stays that suppressed. It might end up in Dayton, but that is a monster high.
  2. Carvers Gap
    1046 high parked over the top of an active STJ...yep, we take.
  3. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro has a gradient winter storm in the South at 168. Yeah, that looks good.
  4. Carvers Gap
    No idea if this verifies...but a fun toggle is between 240 and anything after 300(NA view) of the 12z GEFS on Pivotal. Both the EPS and GEFS have a pretty potent setup beginning to evolve right after d10. Not going to give the usual caveats...everyone should know by now. That said, the pattern that is showing up is ridging over the top with cold underneath. That set-up will work even late in winter given that the event is at night and not middle of the day.
  5. Carvers Gap
    It is a bit of a hunch, but I think something runs that boundary around 132. Now, it could easily go to Ohio. IF that energy being stalled in the Southwest is incorrect, that energy could come out entirely or in pieces along a strong cold front boundary. Not a given, but something to think about. At worst, that energy comes out about 2-3 days later and heads for the EC.
  6. Carvers Gap
    And right now that is sort of cold chasing rain around 132, but it is also big, cold highs which are not interacting with a very active weather pattern. It has been very rare this winter for the active precip pattern to not interact with the cold. Our problem has been that interaction has taken place well to our north...but plenty of interaction and snow has resulted there. So color me a bit skeptical to see a big, 1045+ high press into the East and then see the active precip pattern not at least attack that cold. Again, that has been going on all winter, but to our north. My overall point, give me a big high like that and an active STJ...and let's see what happens.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Part of that is a low stuck in the Southwest that is spinning counter clockwise and pulling that precip shield from El Paso. It can happen, but is very counterintuitive to me. In general those type of lows have not been verifying in that manner. It is definitely common for energy to come out in pieces or even the entire system.... In my experience, when systems seem to buck the flow, it is more in the Colorado front range in the spring. Sometimes lows can pull precip northeast into Colorado. The CMC has a more "acceptable"(not that the atmosphere asks me for approval....LOL) evolution of that pattern. It ejects part of that system out, and the rest sort of sinks into Mexico and comes out as a storm later. The interesting thing is that those systems in the Southwest usually come out. JB used to call them "pay me now or pay me later" systems and sometimes calls them "money in the bank" systems. I hesitate to say something can't happen as the weather can produce some wild phenomena that are within the bounds of physics. But yeah, just looks wonky. That is the second time I have seen that on modeling this winter. One run had precip move from E TX into New Mexico. So, really I am not sure that I trust that run from that point onward. The run wasn't terrible...but that storm that comes out of west TX is another one of those storms that causes the rest of the pattern to pivot around it. If that set-up is modeled incorrectly, rest of the run is likely off...and it might be off anyway knowing the GFS. To me, that looks like a real chance at a winter storm with cold pressing over the top and energy which is likely going to come out. The GFS almost has a storm at 144 and then backs off. The CMC is a realistic look and rain. Interesting timeframe and sitting around 132 with those monster highs. The BIG problem is if it comes out as a gradient system and we are on the Southside of the gradient....flooding potential would be huge. So, we really need those 1045+ highs to verify both for snow chances and just to reduce rainfall amounts. They will at least squash the boundary enough - maybe.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Probably spoke too soon regarding problems in the Southwest. 12z GFS evolution in west TX does not look realistic beginning at 132. I could be wrong, but I bet that kicks out in reality.
  9. Carvers Gap
    MJO this morning looks very weak and trending away from the warm phases that we have been in for nearly two months - maybe a little longer. Could easily be a head fake. JB mentioned changing wavelengths this AM, but to be clear we have been on this for a couple of weeks...the wavelengths changing up are pretty much wrecking havoc on modeling. I have said that this looks like November vs Phase 6 of the MJO as the modeling seems to be delivering every (5-6 days) substantial troughs moving into the East and warm-ups in between. Again, this looks very much like what happened during the November cold snap. Crazy warmth but when the wavelengths changed in November, the door was opened for colder air to enter the pattern. When the wavelengths lengthened out during winter...warmth returned. There are some pretty strong cold shots on most modeling - operationals and ensembles. I hesitate to call it a pattern change as that phrase has worn thin. We have had pattern changes. I mean we have had the pattern that lasted from early December to mid-January. Then we had the HB block w limited cold for the second half of January. I think February is really not a well defined pattern at this point. Had the big trough last week. Now we have had the big ridge. Going to get another big trough followed by another big ridge. Seems like a ridge in the East pattern, but with a trough that loads and pushes it out...type of pattern. What is on LR modeling is different. Heights build over the top and trap cold underneath. No idea if this happens, but I am pulling for the PV to get dislodged and trapped in NA as ridging builds over the top. For those of you who are beginning outdoor sports, that is not what you want. For those wanting some early spring snow...that is on my wishlist. The EMON MJO is out today and it is null. If the MJO is not driving the bus, I bet the -EPO takes over but w several storms that cut under the big eastern Pac ridge. Again, modeling looks quite good today. The great thing right now is that man of the changes are now well within 10 days as evidenced by the increasingly colder Euro operational and EPS. The 10 day temps anomaly for west TN is now BN on the Euro operational, normal for middle TN, and slightly AN for E TN. The 0z EPS 10d ensemble centered for d5-15 is normal with plenty of cold to balance the AN temp interludes. Getting to the point now that from a tracking standpoint, we are going to pretty much have to eyeball most systems after the 18th. Lastly, the cutoffs being handled better in the West are allowing more cold to penetrate eastward. We thought that was fish...turns out it was.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Several big hitters in the ensembles. The overnight run of the EPS was again fairly chilly as was the operational. There are a lot of BN temps beginning with tomorrow, especially compared to the last two months. Will be interesting to see the MJO today.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I hear that. The HB block might be the ticket. Just need to get some cold into that pattern. The second half of January had some great tracks, but no cold.
  12. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Man, than incoming front looks like a an animal at the end of that slide!
  13. Carvers Gap
    Great share. By far, one of my favorite weather occurrences that happens in E TN. Low 70s in the foothills of the Smokies and mid 40s in the foothills of the Plateau. Until a few years ago, I had no idea this was an actual thing until we were trying to figure out how some areas were getting ice along the Plateau while it was like 50 in the foothills of the Smokies.
  14. Carvers Gap
    The EPS is actually more aggressive than the GEFS right now...maybe because it stays out of phase 6/7 of the MJO and is in the COD(false null) longer. But really, the general trend in modeling is towards a colder look and it has sped up some. Easily could be a mirage, but first cold shot is next 48 hours. Pattern looks like this past November vs Phase 6. I am hesitant to be too excited but this has not been a terrible month from a tracking standpoint. We have two event threads. Get a couple of more threads by the end of the month and Feb has done its job....just no way to make up for Dec/Jan being torch city. That said, starting to see that HB block show back up again. Also, if the EPS is correct, I bet that trough near the end of its run kicks right out with that set-up. Really hard not to like where modeling is heading...Yeah, it might be late, but some of those looks at 500 are pretty nice. Once this modeling worked-out the problems with those infinite loops of the Southwest trough...pattern had more cold in it.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Very good trends on modeling since yesterday.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro operational run today is a great example of how that run looks when it doesn't make the potential error of digging too far into the Southwest. Thankfully, most modeling now seems to be free from this likely error. What we now see now is periodic troughs digging eastward with fairy strong cold fronts. The actually frequency of those fronts has increased. That is not a warm run of the Euro operational with cold pinwheeling in. That actually looks like winter in terms of BN temps. Same goes for the GFS which is pretty much constant winter anyway - broken clock analogy applies. The last 7 days of the Euro operational are actually normal in terms of temps. Minor miracle considering where we were during this time frame a few days ago - if I remember correctly. I might even call that a break in continuity...so let's see if if is a hiccup or a trend. The 12z GFS and CMC are again basically singing the same song.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Thought this was worth a share from Jax over in the ENSO thread. JB actually shared this today...Jax shared this on Monday. It is a great piece of information regarding the MJO.
  18. Carvers Gap
    This wind discussion is worthy of the main thread IMHO. Interesting stuff.
  19. Carvers Gap
    We do a lot of strat talk in this thread. Thought this was pretty interesting regarding the stratosphere and its importance in forecasting and modeling of wx: https://usys.ethz.ch/en/news-events/news/archive/2020/01/forecasters-should-look-higher-up-to-predict-weather-weeks-ahead.html
  20. Carvers Gap
    . LOL. Strat going to get bumped around on the GFS late in the run. Temps really warm at 10mb. I suspect this is the real deal. Should make early baseball season super warm - not really.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The GFS does also have a notably strong SSW even at 10mb around the end of its run. Unlikely that really helps our winter chances. However, the SPV and TPV have been coupled this winter and a top->down split might cause blocking quite quickly. If that is true, should start seeing some strong blocking signals showing up late in model runs during the next few days.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS has sped up(by about 20 hours) the eastern trough just after d10 w the first effects of the trough impacting western forum areas around 270. As we suspected, the trough will try to lift out and another trough will attempt to reform in the West almost simultaneously. Looks super similar to what will happen on the 14th and what occurred on the 7th. This one rolls through on the 22nd - again almost every 7-8 days a big trough rolls through or front. The trough on the 22nd is deeper w the AK vortex lifting out right at the end of the run...which is a good thing I think. Lifts out and ridging from the EPO likely replaces it. The EPS does look like a model flirting with phase 8 of the MJO at least just based on its look in NA. I seriously doubt modeling has the pattern nailed down right now. The Feb 14 cold front was basically missed in the LR by the EPS/Euro. Cold air supply is notably weak for the Feb 22 trough. Interestingly, the GFS does show some signs at 10mb late in the run of another SPV disruption, though lower levels are stout. That does coincide with a strong WAR which precedes the eastern trough on the 22nd. That WAR has preceded disruptions this winter and has precede strat splits in the past.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Internet is down now but the power is back on...(remember me telling you all about them cleaning out power lines in the neighborhood...fun times). Looks like the Euro stalls the energy in the Southwest and sends it into the Plains. Legit possibility and also possible it is hung up. It looked pretty close to the GFS actually, but held back the main piece of energy. Anyway, pretty limited viewing opportunities - meaning my computer loads really slow so I am having to load one slide at a time instead of the entire run. Good thing...not a ton to discuss so far. LOL.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Get a 1040+ hp parked over the top of a front that stalls...lots of options on the table I would think in an active weather pattern. Miller A, ice storm, multi-day overrunning event, etc. Just would depend on what side of the front we are on when it stalls. The 12z GFS is one option which is a slp forms and runs the front as it drags through the GOM. Another option is just cold chasing rain like this Thursday into Friday, and that is probably option 1. Seems like I usually see ice if the cold gets trapped and then there is WAA aloft. I suppose if the front presses south of us, the cold air presses, and the front comes back as a warm front...it could happen OR there are multiple waves on a front w a stalled frontal boundary. Probably the biggest problem is those big 1040+ highs have been mirages on the GFS lately. That said, this is inside of d9 so can't rule it out completely.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Anytime a front slows and the tail stalls in the GOM, has to be watched. Sometimes that will form a wave or slp. I remember many snowstorms when I was young where snowstorms began as rain. With the GFS cold bias, just tough to buy that at this range...but it has been fairly consistent with a storm signal at that range. The Euro operational is struggling with holding too much energy in the West and IMHO is causing issues after d7-8. Also, with the MJO changing up, we may well see some wild looks on modeling if phase 8(or even close to it) is on the table. For as bad as January was, February has had some trackable systems. Usually if I get 1-2 snows in February that is about normal for MBY. Right now I am at zero. LOL. However, others have done well so that is cool in my book.
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