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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    For posterity. Departures from normal. It is day 9 so who knows, right? However, worth keeping an eye out right now as many are planting or have crops in the ground already. Rare to see that kind of output on a model.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Sure hoping the 12z GFS is off its rocker. At 210 it is advertising all-time record lows for TRI with lows well into the 20s in the valleys and teens in the mountains. The bad thing is that temps would be well below freezing for many hours. That would literally kill all foliage on trees right now. Oh, and did I forget to mention it has light snow for NE TN? Not sure I have ever seen the model that cold. Unless my eyes are fooling me, temps would be nearly 30 degrees below normal for much of the eastern 2/3 of TN. Crap. I really don't like the GFS.
  3. Carvers Gap
    April...not warm but incredible amounts of rain as John noted above. Pulled this from FB.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Put this in the obs thread on accident...The 6z GFS continues to scare home gardeners everywhere for next weekend. It may or may not be right - but that is impressive cold being depicted. Fortunately, it is not very good at that range. It now has a hard freeze for NE TN with heavy frost into north GA on Sunday I think. It has temps in the TRI in the mid 20s. The Euro Weeklies (yesterday evening)for next weekend also turned quite chilly w/ -9f departures for NE TN and -7F departures over the Central Valley. The 0z Euro OP is not on board with that(GFS) kind of cold. It has trended colder, but I can't find anything below 40 in E TN. Higher elevations in southwest VA seem especially at risk with this set-up and likely small towns in western NC at higher elevations. Normally, this upcoming weekend is a big weekend for gardeners to get warm crops in the ground. I am probably going to have to stagger planting so that I don't lose everything with a clear night and snap frost. I have already done some of that. If we were to take the GFS and Euro and split the difference...that is still a couple of cold nights next weekend. The problem for many of us is that you can't keep plants indefinitely in containers. Hopefully, 12z and 0z back-off. For now, there is a growing signal of a "close call" next weekend in the valleys of NE TN. This would be a great time to plant with 4-5 really warm days coming up. That would get plants established. If next weekend (and that week after) remain well BN, the growing season may push well into the third week of May - a full month later than last year.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Wow, man. That is unreal!!!
  6. Carvers Gap
    Thanks very much for the insight! The Euro and CMC have been hinting at temps in the low 40s. However, with the GFS putting temps into the low to mid 30s...that means I have to drag the tarps out of the shed again! LOL. I just couldn't find any support for those really cold GFS solutions. Upper 30s we can handle in the garden. Mid 30s get really sketchy in areas where there are dips in the surface. I tend to lean towards the Euro on this one. 12z GFS is already warmer for Thursday next week.
  7. Carvers Gap
    There are a couple of islands in the Holston that we only see when TVA has the generators off. That summer with the drought(where G-burg burned) those islands had grass growing on them. LOL. They rarely had water over them as the feeder streams were so low - even generation schedules rarely flooded them. Past two years, I rarely see those islands at all now. If anything, I have seen some high water marks in those areas that I have never seen before, usually just after big thunderstorms. Might be an adventure today! We got hammered with heavy rain yesterday.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Last year's high on April 30th was 84 at TRI! We will be nearly 25 degrees cooler today. That is crazy as we might not get out of the 50s one year later on the same date. The record high for this date is 89. So, a forecast high of 59 is on the other end of that spectrum.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Interesting nugget from MRX this morning... Temperature wise, it will be a cool day end to April to say the least. Afternoon highs will run 10-15 degrees cooler than average for this time of year. We might actually be close to some record low max temperature values this afternoon. Chattanooga in the south will likely be too warm (forecast to be in the mid 60s with a record low-max in the upper 50s), but the northern part of the forecast area will be very close to record territory today. The record low-max at Tri-Cities is 59 degrees, which is exactly what we`re forecasting. I`ve included a short table below for the calendar day record low max temperatures for April 30th if you`re curious where the climate sites will be at today. Daily Record Low Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-30 58(1925) 51(1925) 59(1978) 61(1978)
  10. Carvers Gap
    @nrgjeff, does the 6zGFS look too cold for late next week TR/F/S? Euro and CMC are nearly 5-10 degrees warmer. Or does the GFS have the hot(in this case cold) hand?
  11. Carvers Gap
    The EPS today backed off a little on the cold next week, but the 18z GFS is straight cold towards the end of next week. Multiple frosts being depicted well into the eastern valley by next weekend and into the LR. This would be past the frost free date for my area, and would be a great time for the GFS to be wrong. That likely means about a two week delay in putting in my garden. Summer stuff will be planted 2-3 weeks late this year. Going to be a much shorter growing season this year - at least on the front end. With Nina "never ending summer" on tap for fall, I should be able to make that up.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Trying to decide when to plant my warm weather crops. I really want to drop them in the ground this weekend, but the 12z GFS pretty much sucks(not the model...just the weather). At 240, it has snow in eastern Sullivan County on May 9th! I know, day 10...but that cold signal has been there for a few runs. The problem with waiting is that disease like blight shows up in July. If tomatoes get planted late, blight will wipe them out later in the season here in the humid valley areas. I had quit looking at modeling until @tnweathernut sent me the cold news this morning. If we plant late and then get drought during July, very bad combo for producing peppers and tomatoes. If I don't plant this weekend, I am going to have to nurse these plants along in tight quarters for another week in the hoop house.
  13. Carvers Gap
    It is fairly amazing how different this April has been in comparison to last year at TRI. Up to this point this April, we have had 6 days above 70 degrees. We will likely add one more day tomorrow, but that is it. Last year we had ~20 days above 70 with four days over 80(including two days in the mid 80s) for the entire month. The last day below freezing last year was April 3rd. This year it is April 19th. April of 2019 truly felt like summer as the month progressed. This year, we have had days that felt more like late February as the month has progressed. We are still just a mere .2 of a degree warmer than the average temp for all of March 2020. The polar vortex that was so strong during all of winter spelled trouble at some point during spring. It did not take rocket science to gather the outcome at some point was going to be BN temps. Some days this spring have been nearly 25 degrees colder than the same day last year. One way both are similar is with generous amounts of rainfall. And now we await for the spigot to be turned-off during late summer or early fall as La Nina is forecast to be potentially form and may build to moderate levels(see the ENSO thread). It will be interesting to see how the La Nina behaves with the temperature gradient in the Pacific ocean so warm right now. Snow has not been an uncommon event above 5,000' as well. In Lord of the Rings, there is the famous conversation about second breakfast. This year, we have had second March.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Weather is gnarly out there today. Stiff winds are humming along WSW @ 16+mph sustained. Windchill at noon is in the mid-upper 40s with sheets of drizzle sweeping through continuously. This is the type of weather I normally see above 4,000'. Feels like late February and not end of April. Soil temps continue to be cold as the upcoming growing season will surely be delayed. I have tried to find straw to hill-up my potatoes, but farmers are unable to get into their fields. I managed some, but it took several phone calls to find anyone who had decent straw that wasn't moldy. TRI is now at -0.8 for the month of April. Remarkably, that is still only .7 more than all of March. What does that mean? It means that temps have not continued to warm in a traditional spring manner for about three weeks. The good news? Looks like we are going to resume warming in a typical fashion this week! Bring it on. A day like this is fun now and then...but being quarantined during crap weather pretty much stinks. Shew! We have been overdue for some truly crappy spring weather...seems we have made up for it. All is not lost, however, as we have had several days as well that felt like late fall with blue skies and comfortable temps.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I hear you. I finally broke down and built a mini-hoop house. Some would call it a taller row tunnel. I stashed my plants in there. Been covering potatoes as I don't want them set back. Everything else is good. But the cooler weather is slowing things down this season. We have been really spoiled with longer growing seasons the past few years. This will be a tough early season for warmer crops. Even today, we are forecast to get to near 70 but feels like a cold, drizzly day during winter so far.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Interestingly, to date TRI's average temp is 53.3 for April which is also the exact same average for all of March. Regarding April, max temps have been slightly higher and min temps slightly lower to this point.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Ensembles today depict ~BN temps for much of the next two and a half weeks. I normally put my tomatoes in the ground during the first week of May. Not sure that is going to happen this year. Early May may feel like mid-April at times. Really hope that is wrong. I have stuff ready to go in the ground. I am not even sure that our chances for frost are gone for NE TN by that time. Frost free is usually around May 8 for my house...we may push past that date this year.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I was afraid of that. Well, if we are going that direction then let's go with strong La Nina and cool the Pacific some so a better gradient returns during future winters. I am not digging this cool April. The West is working on a really good decade of winters.
  19. Carvers Gap
    With the QBO at -4.36 for March, it does not shock me that things have turned cooler. The QBO did not stall as some predicted. It moved in a fairly predictable pattern and is now firmly established. Looks like we might get into early winter(at least) with the QBO negative, but likely rising by that point which is not great. But we might steal a couple of good months early before the transition works against us. Either way, very blocky look over NA during the next couple of weeks at least - just what lovers of summer wanted to hear said no one ever.
  20. Carvers Gap
    April has fallen BN for temps and MA normal for precip at TRI. There have been multiple snow events in the mountains, though light. I have had 6 frosts and/or freezes of varying degrees IMBY. Tops of my potatoes got a bit burned as I gambled and lost one night. They have rebounded quickly though. The biggest problem is BN temps combined with heavy rainfall have suppressed soil temps. I would guess we are a couple of weeks behind right now in comparison with where we should be in planting gardens stuff. May just have to make a "go" of it.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Verbatim that is a good looking sea surface signature. @nrgjeff, what do you think about the waters depicted in the GOA there? Also, that is a pretty cold signature in the North Atlantic. How might that affect us?
  22. Carvers Gap
    Low temps are bottoming out 3-4 degrees lower than forecast for MBY. Made it to 31 at TRI this AM. Last I had checked, it was supposed to be 34. Pretty close to a freeze and not a frost - not quite but close. Big difference between 34 and 31 for folks who have gardens. Frost at 33-34 is handled with covering items. When temps go below 32, what material is used to cover matters. If humidity builds up under some materials, it will actually freeze under the cover. At 33-34, this doesn't happen as much. At 31, it can harm plants under tarps and plastic due to that.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Big cutters during April are bad mojo.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Good point. Maybe it is less of a coup and more of a seasonal trend. Seems like the GFS has had the advantage during the last two transitional time frames(last fall and this spring). Euro just has trouble during the shoulder seasons when the patterns change-up. The GFS really did well last November.
  25. Carvers Gap
    GFS scored a coup with this stretch of in-and-out troughs in rapid repetition. It nailed them on the operational and on the ensemble. Might be an example of "a broken clock being right twice a day though" as it is always has cold. We would have scored multiple times with this pattern during winter IMHO.
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