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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Some pretty strong highs showing up in that time frame as well...1040 on the Euro late in its run in fantasy land. Euro control is quite chilly at 12z as well. Would be a nice contrast to last September for sure!
  2. Carvers Gap
    Just for kicks and giggles...the 18zGFS has temps in the upper 30s over the eastern mountains post 300 after a system runs rolls inland. You know I have though that if a system from the GOM were to catch a cold front coming in around Sept 10th....that would be might cold rain!!!!
  3. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the latest cone has Laura going into central Arkansas and into southwest KY...then turning sharply eastward. I will be glad to see some rain. Might be the ticket to a really nice leaf season in the Smokies with rain now.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Feel free to post as much tropical info as possible. MBY is probably good which is why I haven't posted about it. That said, I am more than willing to read and respond to posts about Laura as your area of the subform seems assured of some impacts if modeling is correct. But you folks in the west end of the forum, have at it! Please post observations and thoughts on the system. You know I am here about every day - I will read it!
  5. Carvers Gap
    Six more days until meteorological summer wraps up in the forum area. I tend to see fall as Sept/Oct/Nov in that(met) manner. We are nearly close enough to begin seeing the first frost chances on the Weeklies runs. August has been tolerable. July may well prove to have been the high water mark in terms of temps as Jeff keenly noted a few weeks ago. Going to be interesting to see where the tropical precip tracks. Andy deficits in precip may be made-up quickly depending on the track. Those with already high totals may set some records that will last for decades!
  6. Carvers Gap
    Great info and I may tag onto some of your thoughts. To echo Jeff, I do like what the LR models are cooking up....anything beats the temps last fall. La Nina's are definitely a plus the further west one goes, and worse towards the EC. That said, I think analog packages have really struggled of late. So, I am beginning to think future winters are going to have a lot of variability within analog packages. Honestly, if I had to amend my upcoming winter ideas at exactly this moment...I might cool them off slightly if the weak La Nina verifies. Might go something like normalish Dec, slightly above Jan, very warm Feb in regards to temps. For now, I will refrain from amending. That said, a normalish Dec and slightly above Jan will get the job done in regards to temps...just don't want BN precip. I would normally place weak La Nina at the top of my preferred ENSO state list followed by weak El Nino....Man, after last winter, I am not sure which ENSO state is better. After watching the IO and the SSTs west of the dateline pretty much eliminate winter, I may be giving those two places more consideration - maybe even top shelf consideration. The MJO has really driven winter of late. I "think" if we can get the equatorial western Pacific to cool marginally (without going to a moderate or strong La Nina), we might have some chances. That region has been causing the MJO to rotate through warm phases during winter. The IO is a part of that cycle as it sent plenty of energy last winter into that region which caused convection. If we could get the ENSO region 4 to cool and/or the IO to reduce the amount of energy it is sending eastward....we might not have the MJO cycling so strongly(and multiple times) into phases 4-6 during winter. I like the weak La Nina being modeled on some LR stuff, if it is west based, because it "might" help us with the MJO. I realize there are about 1,000 other things that can screw things up...but I may take my chances with a weak La Nina. Those winters seem to produce a lot of northern stream energy for NE TN. Weak La Nina winters also have a tendency to produce at least one really severe cold shot during winter, sometimes two. Hey, a great example of something so minor really messing with NA weather is that area of high(might have been low) pressure that just wouldn't move east of the Urals. Someone might remember that more clearly. That little feature absolutely changed the entire hemispheric pattern for the winter. La Nina patterns are tricky. They tend to produce cool early winters. What is tough after that is they tend to flip quite warm...but sometimes the cold returns. I have often been fooled by a great looking late fall and December pattern during La Nina years...and then the winter goes West and never comes back. But I agree, western sections should benefit as La Nina winters produce just enough SER to send the "low road" storm tracks through middle TN. The QBO is a big problem right now as it has not cycled into negative territory strongly and is now potentially signaling yet another double dip into positive at 30mb. It will be interesting to see how that interacts with a weak La Nina. That might be a bad combo off the top of my head.
  7. Carvers Gap
    So, is modeling correcting towards a weaker La Nina. Saw that mentioned as a possibility in the MA winter thread? If so, that is a significant.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Also, I noticed the 12z GFS had a snowstorm in southwest MT and northern WY around hour 200. Edit: That is supported by both the 12z GEFS and EPS.
  9. Carvers Gap
    You know the 12z EPS is pretty close to sending fall's first cool air mass into the East. Probably more likely to drop into the middle of the continent first. However, that is a pretty good blocking signature in d10-15. And yeah, feels pretty good to be saying all of that on August 23rd!!!
  10. Carvers Gap
    We have had rain IMBY but it has not been anything but excessive. TRI is -0.79" below normal so far with only 1.58" recorded for the month at the airport....and I know one of those storms parked itself over TRI and nobody else got any. So, the airport total is generous. It is not bone dry by any means, but we are not getting the rains experienced at higher elevations. Below is the graphic for the past 72 hours. Seems to fit the pattern for August so far. So-so rainfall but impressive amounts within a couple hours drive. Supposed to get some rain in the coming days. I am only halfway griping, because I am tired of watering the garden! LOL. Valley areas are receiving much less than the rest of you all at higher elevations - I am a bit jealous!
  11. Carvers Gap
    Well, I am secretly hoping for extremely cold air on December 5th - maybe even get some snow flying in the air. For once, Florida is scheduled to travel to Knoxville during the last half of the season. I can't remember that happening - may have to go back to when I was a kid or even further. Normally, we get the antitheses to November in the Swamp. Probably marginal chances that it gets played, but I hope they get the opposite of the heat that we have to play in during mid-September in Gainesville. A night game would even be better. Man, it is in the 90s with 90+% humidity down there during September. Wind chills in the 20s with snow flurries would be optimum up here. LOL.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 0z EPS had a nasty ridge in the LR developing over the East. Really hope that doesn't verify, but the 12z GEFS seemed to offer some support for it.
  13. Carvers Gap
    As alluded to earlier, definitely some hints that consistently AN heights may arrive again in September. As Jeff noted, good thing is that norms begin to drop about then. Just nothing like last year please...AN is livable, but not MUCH, MUCH AN.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I can live with what I am seeing in the LR. I know that is a short post, but Jeff pretty much covered it.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Not everyday one gets to drop this in the observation thread. Definitely felt it IMBY. 5.1 earthquake in Sparta, North Carolina. https://www.wjhl.com/news/breaking/usgs-earthquake-reported-in-north-carolina/
  16. Carvers Gap
    Hey, if it just gets hot like last summer....We can call this second summer, along the lines of second breakfast. Why? Because one summer is not enough for this forum that loves winter weather. LOL.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Saw where the QBO 30mb rose a couple of points during July. Could be good or could be bad...If it pops positive with a La Nina, that is a warm signal for winter. OTH, maybe it really hasn't gotten its act together and truly dropped. Anyway, two straight months w a slight positive trajectory. I am "hoping" that the stall means we might get a couple of extra months of run in the negative towards the end of winter.
  18. Carvers Gap
    That is crazy, Powell! A quick glance at LR guidance...Just took a glance at the CANSIPS which just updated. Next three months are August(BN), Sept(N), Oct(N).... That is a pretty good trend on temps. CFSv2 looks similar. Have not seen the updated Euro seasonal yet. A normal fall would be nice. Euro Weeklies are warmer for sure. Still, in the SE we appear be tucked underneath AN heights or the east of AN heights depending on the model. Would very much enjoy some cooler nights in September vs the furnace that we had last year. We are about to enter the time of year that the Euro Weeklies struggle - shoulder season. So, I think we have about four more weeks where I trust it as the trump card. During shoulder season, it often diminishes in accuracy until late November when it regains its form and flawlessly nails the forecast much AN temps for 12 straight weeks.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Definitely continue improvement in modeling today and that correlates well to Jeff's comments yesterday. Be tough to ask for a better look for August.
  20. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Of course the Euro Weeklies would follow the CFSv2 for once! I should have stuck to my original thoughts! I caved one run to early!!!! LOL. You all can send me a Christmas card if this heat leaves. So, I am just going to disregard my Tuesday thoughts and revert to my Saturday thoughts. Since those Tuesday comments, it has rained like crazy here and the LR models have moderated.
  21. Carvers Gap
    More good rain today and storms. Thunderstorm warnings to boot.
  22. Carvers Gap
    It was pretty wild...felt like I was watching storms out West. Vivid stuff! Looked like quite a boomer up your way with that last storm.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Lots of rain IMBY yard this evening - very thankful. Looks like more on the way tomorrow. Will take every drop right now!
  24. Carvers Gap
    La Nina summer is here. As Jax noted, maybe a break for a couple of weeks...then more heat is possible. La Nina heat patterns are probably some of the most difficult patterns to break down once in place. Endless summer looks like a real possibility again this year. Getting very dry IMBY. This heat quickly bakes out whatever moisture is in the soil. Of all wx patterns, I dislike La Nina summers the most...and it is not even close. Thankfully we had June, but I would guess that September will be a summer month instead of fall this year...unless the CFSv2 could finally be right about something. Not holding my breath. Just hoping we don't go like last Sept/Oct. That was brutal. Thing is, the next couple of months will likely rival that, but at least it is during summer and not fall....but I am not ruling out early-mid Fall be fairly warm either.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Awesome. We were able to see it tonight. Could barely see it with the naked eye and easily see it with binoculars. And it is right below the Big Dipper as noted in this thread. The sky might look dark there due to some washing out on the horizon and from lights...but just scan around with the binoculars. It will pop right out. You can see it right now in the NW sky.
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