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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    We have had rain IMBY but it has not been anything but excessive. TRI is -0.79" below normal so far with only 1.58" recorded for the month at the airport....and I know one of those storms parked itself over TRI and nobody else got any. So, the airport total is generous. It is not bone dry by any means, but we are not getting the rains experienced at higher elevations. Below is the graphic for the past 72 hours. Seems to fit the pattern for August so far. So-so rainfall but impressive amounts within a couple hours drive. Supposed to get some rain in the coming days. I am only halfway griping, because I am tired of watering the garden! LOL. Valley areas are receiving much less than the rest of you all at higher elevations - I am a bit jealous!
  2. Carvers Gap
    Well, I am secretly hoping for extremely cold air on December 5th - maybe even get some snow flying in the air. For once, Florida is scheduled to travel to Knoxville during the last half of the season. I can't remember that happening - may have to go back to when I was a kid or even further. Normally, we get the antitheses to November in the Swamp. Probably marginal chances that it gets played, but I hope they get the opposite of the heat that we have to play in during mid-September in Gainesville. A night game would even be better. Man, it is in the 90s with 90+% humidity down there during September. Wind chills in the 20s with snow flurries would be optimum up here. LOL.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The 0z EPS had a nasty ridge in the LR developing over the East. Really hope that doesn't verify, but the 12z GEFS seemed to offer some support for it.
  4. Carvers Gap
    As alluded to earlier, definitely some hints that consistently AN heights may arrive again in September. As Jeff noted, good thing is that norms begin to drop about then. Just nothing like last year please...AN is livable, but not MUCH, MUCH AN.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I can live with what I am seeing in the LR. I know that is a short post, but Jeff pretty much covered it.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Not everyday one gets to drop this in the observation thread. Definitely felt it IMBY. 5.1 earthquake in Sparta, North Carolina. https://www.wjhl.com/news/breaking/usgs-earthquake-reported-in-north-carolina/
  7. Carvers Gap
    Hey, if it just gets hot like last summer....We can call this second summer, along the lines of second breakfast. Why? Because one summer is not enough for this forum that loves winter weather. LOL.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Saw where the QBO 30mb rose a couple of points during July. Could be good or could be bad...If it pops positive with a La Nina, that is a warm signal for winter. OTH, maybe it really hasn't gotten its act together and truly dropped. Anyway, two straight months w a slight positive trajectory. I am "hoping" that the stall means we might get a couple of extra months of run in the negative towards the end of winter.
  9. Carvers Gap
    That is crazy, Powell! A quick glance at LR guidance...Just took a glance at the CANSIPS which just updated. Next three months are August(BN), Sept(N), Oct(N).... That is a pretty good trend on temps. CFSv2 looks similar. Have not seen the updated Euro seasonal yet. A normal fall would be nice. Euro Weeklies are warmer for sure. Still, in the SE we appear be tucked underneath AN heights or the east of AN heights depending on the model. Would very much enjoy some cooler nights in September vs the furnace that we had last year. We are about to enter the time of year that the Euro Weeklies struggle - shoulder season. So, I think we have about four more weeks where I trust it as the trump card. During shoulder season, it often diminishes in accuracy until late November when it regains its form and flawlessly nails the forecast much AN temps for 12 straight weeks.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Definitely continue improvement in modeling today and that correlates well to Jeff's comments yesterday. Be tough to ask for a better look for August.
  11. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Of course the Euro Weeklies would follow the CFSv2 for once! I should have stuck to my original thoughts! I caved one run to early!!!! LOL. You all can send me a Christmas card if this heat leaves. So, I am just going to disregard my Tuesday thoughts and revert to my Saturday thoughts. Since those Tuesday comments, it has rained like crazy here and the LR models have moderated.
  12. Carvers Gap
    More good rain today and storms. Thunderstorm warnings to boot.
  13. Carvers Gap
    It was pretty wild...felt like I was watching storms out West. Vivid stuff! Looked like quite a boomer up your way with that last storm.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Lots of rain IMBY yard this evening - very thankful. Looks like more on the way tomorrow. Will take every drop right now!
  15. Carvers Gap
    La Nina summer is here. As Jax noted, maybe a break for a couple of weeks...then more heat is possible. La Nina heat patterns are probably some of the most difficult patterns to break down once in place. Endless summer looks like a real possibility again this year. Getting very dry IMBY. This heat quickly bakes out whatever moisture is in the soil. Of all wx patterns, I dislike La Nina summers the most...and it is not even close. Thankfully we had June, but I would guess that September will be a summer month instead of fall this year...unless the CFSv2 could finally be right about something. Not holding my breath. Just hoping we don't go like last Sept/Oct. That was brutal. Thing is, the next couple of months will likely rival that, but at least it is during summer and not fall....but I am not ruling out early-mid Fall be fairly warm either.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Awesome. We were able to see it tonight. Could barely see it with the naked eye and easily see it with binoculars. And it is right below the Big Dipper as noted in this thread. The sky might look dark there due to some washing out on the horizon and from lights...but just scan around with the binoculars. It will pop right out. You can see it right now in the NW sky.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Looks like maybe a somewhat significant pattern shake-up is now to the point it might sneak inside of d10. Fingers crossed. It won''t be cool...just less hot. Bout the best we can expect. Ridge on the 12z EPS is definitely backing West, but will it happen? IDK...hope so.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Just come on over to Kingsport, I can get you some real feel 90s with humidity...but BN rainfall. LOL. We don't want you to miss summer!!! J/K of course. Seriously, had some nice storms this morning. The graduation at Dobyns-Bennett will go ahead as planned this evening as it looks like the weather has held. For once, glad it is not raining. Man, might even be able to see a comet over the proceedings. Not many graduations have a comet overhead.
  19. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS has shown some minor but tangible improvement in the long term. It is slightly more like the GEFS w the ridge setting up over the SW. How is that for brevity?
  20. Carvers Gap
    Just a quick glance at overnight ensembles, and lots of model bias in play. The EPS is showing how difficult it is to break down a big, summer heat ridge. The GEFS and GEPS are trying to sneak some relief in later in the month into the East. I do think the ridge backs West. That is a pretty common theme on Weeklies modeling for whatever they are worth. The real question is if the trough moves westward, does a ridge still belly into the SE under any sort of eastern GL trough? That is not an uncommon setup during summer....western ridge with some ridging under a shallow eastern trough. Still, the current pattern looks pretty similar to what we have had this summer - meaning big warm-ups with potential for the ridge to get knocked down. We do have less BN temps in play at this point for any trough to draw from when compared to earlier this summer. Would be nice to see fall come early for once in a blue moon! Doubt that happens in a La Nina...but one can hope! But like Jeff said...maybe we can just get this out of the way now. I should add...my money is probably on a slightly watered down EPS right now. GEFS has had an awful bias of late run troughs for months on end. But hey, summer is gonna summer. At least we had June which was pleasant. Maybe we can steal a break again at the end of the month or in early August.
  21. Carvers Gap
    I certainly hope the 12z GEFS and EPS ensembles are correct. They do continue to imply that the ridge backs westward. The 12z GFS was all-in on that today...But when is it not? LOL.
  22. Carvers Gap
    When Jeff uses "BOHICA" in a post about the long term pattern, we know things in the wx world are about to go to crapcon 1. Man, we got absolutely drilled by a storm this evening. That humidity and sun are creating some heavy hitters. What is crazy is I can look at a storm and the normal rules don't apply. I have seen east to west storms. I have seen storms to my west on a true north to south trajectory. We have been hit from the southeast by storms. I have seen storms form and not move at all. But we got hammered today. Half of my corn got knocked over. It was a really howler. VERY thankful for the water!!!
  23. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Well, crap. And that is a top 5 afternoon disco of all time. That is awesome.
  24. Carvers Gap
    2020 FTW!!!!
  25. Carvers Gap
    Yep, IMHO we have flipped quickly to a Nina pattern. Tonight's Euro Weeklies do offer some hope as the worst of the 500 anomalies switch to the Mountain West by August. But I know that once these death ridges go into place...they have been tough to budge. Right now, MBY is depending on stray thunderstorms for anything in the way of moisture. You Plateau folks need to send some of that our way in the TRI(west of 26). I was really hoping the Nino hangover pattern would hang on through September. Maybe we can still get a little milage from it. But whew! The heat is here. What makes it tougher is that May and June were pleasant - so not acclimated to this yet!
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