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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS...Well. LOL. And, I thought I was cold with it being in the mid-50s last night! In all seriousness, I get a bit nervous when the GEFS and the EPS begin to get in lock step about potential cool downs - been some notorious misses recently. Sometimes it is a "to good to be true scenario." I am sort of in a "I have to see it to believe it" mode. However, if one were to take the 12z GEFS/EPS suites, that is not a warm look. That trend has been in place for a few days. So, one would expect operational models to now start spitting out some pretty wild looks from time to time reflecting what the ensembles are doing. I just want a day where we have highs in the 40s where I can tell my grandkids someday that...one time in October we set four straight record highs only to have highs in the 40s later that month. It was definitely surreal last evening as I was sitting outside in very light drizzle, a light breeze, and temps in the 50s in Johnson City. People, I forgot to bring a stinking coat or even a shirt with long sleeves!!!! All of these bands from all over the SE, which have been practicing in record heat, were almost certainly dealing with similar situations. Great and memorable evening for sure.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Very possible. There were a lot of bands there...was a big BOA regional competition. I didn't get to see many bands perform as I help with getting stuff on and off the field...and on and off the semi. I usually only get to see another school's band right before our band goes on. I was able to see the finals presentation as we stopped to take a peak.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Been outside working at a band competition. About. Froze. My. Tail. Off. Temps weren't super cold, but after mid-90s for temps, walking around in the 50s feels significantly cold. Really, that is a forty degree difference. Just not used to that weather yet.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS again looks nice with its evolution post d10 - if one likes fall weather. 18z GFS looks remarkably similar. Let's see if those looks get modified as we get closer as has been the recent pattern. For now, maybe some guarded hope that we might see some pretty chilly temps later this month(likely to see one more strong ridge embedded in the 16 day forecast range...but looks like it might be limited in duration.) Speaking of temps...I have West Yellowstone on my phone for wx. When I woke up, it was 2 degrees there. Record cold temps during this past night out West.
  5. Carvers Gap
    The garden is doing well. You can compare to the first garden pic in the drought comparison. Three weeks ago the raised beds were pretty much void. Cool nights along with low humidity but warm days is like steroids right now for these crops. Cabbage, baby kale, baby mustard greens, strawberries(not producing, but to be totally expected during fall) and cover crop surrounding the raised beds are seen. Right behind the kale one can see the sprigs of some newly sprouted onions. One negative side effect to this heat...dang flea beetles are still alive and strong and got into my Swiss chard. All of that greenery is courtesy of the City of Kingsport water department.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Will continue to compare MBY....lighting is different as well as the camera angle which makes it look a tad worse but to the exposure/brightness of the photo. However one can see the toll that the drought has taken during the last three weeks.
  7. Carvers Gap
    During the pas 44 days, the closest weather station has recorded 0.09" of precip. That station is about 1.5 miles from MBY.
  8. Carvers Gap
    If you can get hands on the overnight run of the EPS, give it a look d10-16 evolution is interesting for kicks and giggles - almost all of NA is cold at 850. Not sure I buy that, but that would be a trough that means business. Proceed at your own risk as this is the time of year(shoulder season) that it really flips around. We can at least enjoy it until the next run.
  9. Carvers Gap
    500 pattern on tonight's Weeklies looked acceptable. It runs almost all of the way through the end of November now but not quite. Pattern is a ridge in the East builds and is beaten down by a trough. Trough temporarily sets up shop in the East. Wash, rinse, repeat. No death permanent death ridge. 850 temps look reasonable. 2m temps again look exaggerated to the AN side. Nice to actually look at a set of maps that are not set on perpetual furnace mode with never-ending 500 mega-ridges. I think the forum has done a good job hashing out what is to come for the rest of the month. Those ideas look good. November is a question mark for me. I can definitely see both sides of the coin. With those heights over AK and the coastal West and heights in HB...have to think the pattern will likely be an elongated trough from the Northwest into the East of varying depths....Missoula to say Kansas City with it at times extending to Atlanta. Going to be a real fight between the SER and approaching cold fronts. Right now with summer time temps in the SE, the SER is formidable. As winter kicks in...the cold fronts will likely have more power to punch and hold. Keep the fires burning...I have been working as a volunteer in our local HS marching band this season. Weekends are gonna be busy for the month of October. Fridays are obviously HS games and Saturdays will be competitions. Huge amounts of respect for those young people as they have marched right through this record heat...tough hombres. Obviously, they are monitored closely with plenty of water breaks. Still..now you know why I have been interested in the heat. This week has been a welcome reprieve! You folks from the area know how hard they work. They pocketed their first ever national title in their division last year. Needless to say, they will get everyone's best this season during regional competitions. Regardless, they will take a trip to the Rose Bow Parade in January. Definitely going to be keeping an eye on the weather during the next three weekends, though this weekend is in a dome. Next two are outside. Probably will get you all to keep an eye on the weather in Pasadena when they head out there...
  10. Carvers Gap
    12z ensemble show a very back-and-forth pattern. Looks like a great week next week, then maybe a quick pop of the SER and another trough. MJO is helping us out - maybe. JMA was much different than CFS/Euro combo for weeks 3-4. Haven't done my usual browsing through today's wx data, but did get a quick look at the 12z suite. MRX has highs in the mid to upper 60s later next week for TRI - Jeff's fall weather which he discussed.. Right now we are running anywhere from 14-20 degrees below last week..and still somewhat AN. However, it feels great given where we were. Also, potentially some low 40s for lows at TRI next week.
  11. Carvers Gap
    And the happy hour run of the 18z GFS did not disappoint. LOL. Brrrrrr. Low 40s into the Florida Panhandle.
  12. Carvers Gap
    That cold next to South America has SER written all over it. Worst case could be a torch...best case an inland storm track.
  13. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Nashville folks may want "in" on this ranking, probably Memphis as well...and maybe whatever defense showed up against Georgia State. Also, I am a Steelers fan. I feel fairly certain Rudolph sort of feels like he wondered into a snow black hole on Sunday after getting knocked out cold.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Somebody explain how the extreme version of the IOD will impact the MJO weather and/or downstream weather in the US...I always forget which zones are which for the MJO. Would maybe think that it is or is going to have some impact on the SOI as it measures the pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin. @nrgjeff, with this being so strong do we know what the downstream effects will be or is it an unknown? As noted earlier, you used this last year. How is it best used?
  15. Carvers Gap
    Now, the real question is whether it is actually overdone or not. Considering that the cold is not in a shallow trough, that is good. Right now, to be expected, the cold has a tendency not to get as far south as modeled. If it follows recent patterns, that front will moderate quite a bit during future runs. But we have some wiggle room with that map. The problem with last Friday's cool front and today's is that the base of the trough was shallow. The Euro won both battles regarding tough depth. Still is much cooler, but was not as cool as the GFS maps. So, knowing that...use the map accordingly. LOL. The Euro Weeklies from tonight are fairly interesting in that they are not enthused about leaving any reformation of the Eastern ridge in place during November. Is it right? No idea. Heck, am I even interpreting a fairly washed out look correctly? I will give it a shot without boxing myself in to one camp or the other. What is frustrating is the Euro Weeklies maps continue to miss BN temps on the surface map, even though though current surface temps have actually had plenty of BN temps in NA. (Conversely, some CFS maps will look like the Ice Age is advancing) That said, if one looks at the 500 maps and 850 maps...looks like a bit of a washed out trough that tries to develop over the East in early to mid November(take the slower timing IMHO). What does that tell me? Looked like a washed out mess in November. What they do suggest is there are likely several members that are not in agreement with an eastern trough but maybe slightly more that do at 500. Again, always good to remind folks that we don't live at 500, but it does give a good idea at hemispheric circulation patterns. Around the last week of October it shows a ridge out West build with a shallow mean trough centered over the MS w a SER(kudos to Jeff) over the SE east of the Apps which eventually evolves into a broad trough over the eastern 2/3 of the country during early to mid November and leaves a slight hint of a SER. Now, sometimes a SER is a bad word...it is just bad when it pumps 90 degree temps into my neighborhood in perpetuity. We don't want things so suppressed that everything goes OTS. Got to have a little bit of one or at least some resistance in the western Atlantic. We also don't want that SER to connect with a -NAO...Overall, looks like maybe a nice fall pattern which evolves. I will add that I have generally begun to ignore Euro Weeklies temp constructs after week 2 and just look at 500 and 850temp maps. Problem with ignoring the Euro temps maps is they don't show source regions very well for the bank of maps that I have access to. I can just see anomaly maps vs actual temp maps. What looks like a nice trough might not have a ton of cold available. Anyway, hopefully Jeff will chime in and add his thoughts. I do think October will finish much AN...just to many positive departures to erase. November I would guess as normalish based on those maps...but again source regions matter as well as the depth of any trough. Last thing I will say to folks is to be very wary of Weeklies maps during shoulder seasons...they are notoriously fickle for understandable reasons.
  16. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS advertising sharp cold front swing through Friday. Jeff mentioned this in his earlier discussion. GFS has temps in the upper 30s in middle TN by Saturday AM - we'll see if that is right. 40s seem more likely. Still...look at the temps in from and behind this boundary. Pretty impressive. I just grabbed the front as it approaches Nashville. Later in the run, temps are in the upper 30s in middle TN while temps in NE TN are in the low 60s.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I have a legit chance of getting very little to nothing from this, not looking like anywhere near the half inch plus amounts advertised by local offices. I don't blame weather forecast offices though. Today is a great example of how things can easily go wrong, and why this region is so tough to get right. What a lot of folks used to see as the "Bubble" in Kingsport is just downsloping that can occur from three different directions. Now, the Bubble is the real deal on marginal snow events, and all of us up here know how that comes to pass - local joke, but I can just about guarantee that everyone in Kingsport know exactly what I am talking about. But today is a great example of how a forecast can bust for this area. Our forecast high was 72...we hit 79 which I think is tops for all of E TN. The front hung up and the sun came out for longer than expected I think. North of 81 and west of 26 pretty much didn't receive any rainfall. We dealt with downloading winds off the Smokies for much of the day. When the winds did shift the precip line failed to reform until almost right over downtown Kingsport, and even still...not much. I think a combination of the left over ridge, the ongoing drought, and downsloping were likely issues. Also, I was reminded by a friend to beware of rainy fronts(of the entry angle seen today) as they rarely verify well here. In NE TN, we normally need some type of wave running a boundary, a frontal boundary that drapes over the area, or sometimes a quicker front works. Another thing that really messes up the conveyor up here is convection to our south - don't think that happened either. But today does go to show just how many ways precip can dissipate. If this had been a winter event, we would have gotten blanked. We average less rainfall up here, and today is likely a great example of why. Thankfully temps have been much more tolerable. Valley temps are 15-20 degrees cooler than last week with SW VA maybe pushing 20-25 degrees cooler.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I don't like see bands that are split in that manner. They have a habit of missing portions of NE TN as they slide up...agree.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Got the shaft on rain this afternoon. Fairly robust line of rain developed over town and head east. West Kingsport and northwest Hawkins Co only received at best .01-.02. That one hurt. I could see the heavy rain from my neighborhood. Not overly confident in the next line, but it will have to do as that is it. Might be able to squeeze out a tenth or two at best. Right now sitting at .01" for the current system.
  20. Carvers Gap
    I will say that while a warmish December would not surprise me...I also would not be surprised for a lot of clouds and rains. I am a little nervous calling for rain during December as E TN droughts have a tendency to self-perpetuate(look at the rain bands falling apart today) sometimes without a ton of warning. IMBY, a lot of times the reason that Nino Decembers are warm is that nighttime temps are AN with daytime temps only slightly above. I will say that the SER will be an absolute bear if it doesn't rain IMHO...OTH super dry air over E TN does sometimes make cold air masses worse as the nighttime lows go really low with not humidity. I have not bitten not he typhoon recurve yet. I suspect that may be part of the back-and-forth in the LR with ridge/trough placement. Those recurving typhoons can make a mess out of modeling until they get resolved in modeling (which might be happening already). I read somewhere on Twitter(saw it on Twitter so it must be true, right!) that sometimes recruiting typhoons can actually pump the trough in the GOA and force a downstream ridge over eastern NA. Now, I am no fan of early season typhoons unleashing the Arctic hounds. That has happened twice in the last ten years that I can think of and it took forever for NA to reload the cold pattern as the cold was "spent" too early. The following two winters I think were warm early on, maybe the entire winter. I am willing to bide my time with slightly AN temps for the next 8-10 weeks until we can get a delivery mechanism which is able deliver the coldest air during winter and not fall. Yep. Saw that the ridge is showing some signs of returning on the EPS mean and also on the GEFS mean, though the 6z GEFS run was less enthused. Seems like then 6z CFS(the one that runs through mid Nov) was cold for November, but everyone knows I don't trust the CFS. OTH, the CFSv2 seasonal through January is exactly opposite of my winter ideas. LOL. Definitely interested to see what the MJO does. If it gets into phases 2 and 3 I think that favors more of a trough over the eastern US. But I completely understand betting the ridge as it has the "hot hand." (bad joke Monday)
  21. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, how could I forget the downslope! LOL. Winds have indeed been out of the SE this morning.
  22. Carvers Gap
    TRI's temps have raced upward in the absence of rain along with being stuck for a prolonged amount of time on the east side of a precip band. Happens often during winter. Precip stalls. Sun comes out. Temps bust high. How many snowstorms have fizzled with that exact scenario? A bunch. Forecast for today was 72 and were are already at 76...the highest temp in E TN I think for the second straight day. Either way, much better than last week! I went ahead and watered my garden...that should ensure heavy rainfall for MBY today. Water bill...I am afraid to look. My fall garden has only seen .1" of rain since August 28th - 40 days of being hooked up to the city water IV. Looks like precip will be moving-in around 1:00-2:00 PM if MRX is correct which I think they are...May have to wait for Friday-Sunday for our next legit chances at adequate precip after today.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The drought is a problem right now for much of E TN. I thought the last drought monitor update was woefully underdone for Sullivan County. It is bone dry for my end of the county. These systems just lose steam as they crash into a very dry air mass at the surface. Going to take several rounds of precip to knock that down. But right now anything will help. If we can get .25-.30" of rain during the next 24 hours, it will at least help with what could easily become a growing fire season threat. Our temps here are like living in the dessert. With little humidity, temps can change quickly with or without sun depending. We have sun in Kingsport and that in turn has allowed for forecast high temps to be already reached. Happened yesterday as well. Rain should cap those temps when it moves in. LR, it will be interesting to see what happens. This long lasting -NAO has teleconnected very well to the heat this summer and fall. At some point if it keeps up, that will teleconnect to cold temps in the East. My gut says if flips positive for most of this winter. Problem is that it is one of the hardest features IMHO to actually predict with accuracy past two weeks. Also LR, I tend to favor a more progressive pattern through October and November with periods of ridges and troughs without either locking in for long periods of time - maybe weighted something like 40% trough and 60% ridge. If the eastern ridge does re-develop, wouldn't be surprised to see Nino climo undercut that ridge....still the change in wavelengths is our friend right now. The MJO is finally showing some signs of leaving phase one and at least peaking at phase 2 for both the CFS and ECMWF. Once we enter the winter season and the pattern stabilizes, we will know where that ridge sets ups shop. My June forecast for winter has a trough penciled in for the West with the trough eventually moving to the East by Jan/Feb which fits Nino climatology. The item that makes the forecast tough is that the ENSO regions closest to South America my well be more like a La Nina and that can present problems with a Southeast Ridge when present.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I put my garlic and shallots into one of my raised beds yesterday. Figured the upcoming seasonal to AN(but not extreme) wx will get them off to a good start before the first inevitable freeze hits at some point during the next few weeks. My garlic is definitely a testament to @Stovepipe's sharing about his garlic harvest a few years back. This is my second year growing. I had never attempted it prior to reading his post. Shallots are a new venture.(probably tried some during the wrong time of year several years ago) Some folks call them multiplier or potato onions, because one bulb will produce many over the winter and early spring. I am still shocked that my "cool weather" crops have done so well given the record temps of the last few weeks. The only thing that just came up and was like, "Nope..." was spinach. Everything else has done very well considering the temps and drought. I think it is due to an odd, but useful setup in my garden in relation to sun angle. During the summer, the angle of the sun provides direct sunlight all summer. However, during the fall, it drops just enough into the southwest that the tops of some tall trees shade the garden in the afternoon. Anyway, if you all garden...this is perfect time to plant garlic. Just let it sit all winter, grow during the spring, and harvest as the tops brown and fall over next summer. Filaree Farms has a great site for pretty much all root crops, but especially for garlic. They have a growing guide as well.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Clouds have moved in and the much anticipated cool-down is at hand. 71 outside and feels awesome. Now, bring on the rain. We have had one tenth of an inch of rain during the past 39 days. To me, that is as spectacular as the temps.
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