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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Watch, we will track this pattern change and it will turn out to be only a passing front...remember that from the last two winters? But nah, I think we have a shot here at some colder weather.
  2. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS again showing some very significant blocking at high latitude. Oddly, the Euro(as John noted last night) appears to have caught some changes before the GFS. It has been my experience(that even though it has a very bad cold bias), when in shoulder season the upgraded GFS tends to catch shoulder-season pattern changes and lock on. I should also add that the GEPS has also been early on picking out this potential change. Ensembles sometimes are a little slow to catch pattern changes, because they wash them out. That said, we want to see the changes begin to show on the ensembles now as the timeframe gets closer during the next few days. The trend seems to be every so slightly towards a significant cool down after Thanksgiving or right around it.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Have to hit the sack. Let's hope we see more of the runs which are similar auto the 12z EPS control and 0z GFS.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I think La Nina really favors Arkansas quite a bit. I like Jeff because he doesn't Twitter hype or talk cryptically. Plus, he is a met for our region where those two don't work our area(no disrespect to them).
  5. Carvers Gap
    Agree. I trust Jeff the most. Maybe we can get the Chattanooga area some snow this winter as payment for his work!
  6. Carvers Gap
    Only because we have had next to nothing to talk about will I give the LR GFS any air time...(LOL) but what is being depicted on that run is the beginning of winter for us. No idea if it verifies. Modeling has been hinting at a flip for a few days. The GFS is world renown for jumping into the deep end a bit too quickly. One of the better runs of this early season.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, Jeff hinted at a post-Thanksgiving cool down. Those are several really good sources. What happens after d10 would be a complete reversal of our current pattern(at least temporarily). That said...every, single time that has been shown this fall actual verification put the tough out West. There seems to major model bias almost universally to dumping cold eastward and reverting back westward as reality approaches. But some of the d10+ looks have been interesting to say the least.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that is the GFS and yeah that is a LONG WAY out there...but that run should wake a few folks up from their long summer naps.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Lots of late night content for those early morning risers...the 0z GFS is less on board with Webber's comments from earlier today(reversal of heights in AK) BUT there does seem to be an Aleutian low showing up fairly consistently. During the past few winters, that has usually set the stage for what meager winter offerings which we have scored with...and I mean meager. That low tends to pump the EPO/PNA ridge (even if temporarily), and forces an eastern trough. One can see that pretty clearly after d10 with the 48 hour 500 trend on Tropical Tidbits. Big banana high over the top, and that would be an EC storm signal past 300. But as a friend of mine would say...but is it right? No idea! LOL.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies certainly hinted that high latitude blocking may well form and push storms into the "low road." Lots of moving parts right now, and highly doubt any modeling has this nailed at this range. Much of what is being discussed is in week 2 and even week 3.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Modeling is definitely not there yet I should add...the 12z EPS control has the path towards a colder EC. Modeling has been slowly becoming murkier. I have generally found that when modeling goes a bit "haywire" during later fall and/or winter....really cold air is entering into NA. Again, I think it is way too early to say where it goes or even that it is a certainty that cold is coming. The very LR stuff out there right now is hinting that early to mid Dec may get cold. I would be down with that since my winter forecast would be in good shape - I actually didn't change it. Just am rolling the dice and staying with my original ideas.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Pretty reliable person on Twitter....One could probably connect what Masiello and Webb are discussing. We have seen plenty of head fakes this fall with almost every head fake resulting in a western trough and record cold there. However, the MJO in conjunction with changes in blocking at high latitudes "might" be signaling that the next outbreak will be further eastward. Whether that is in the center of the country or here in the TN Valley forum area...I don't know.
  13. Carvers Gap
    I went back and looked at his posts on this...sometimes his posts are tough for me to decipher. From what I can gather, that region has been promoting a SE ridge - that MJO area has been a thorn for a couple of winters. He made a correct call back in Oct that the SER was going to lock in. Best I can gather is that he is saying that region in the western Pacific will now begin to interfere with the signal which has produced this monster EC ridge. Lots of debate on what the MJO is about to do. Modeling has definitely trended away from a strong ridge pattern(after next week) to more of an uncertain mix of signals. I mean really we have had a standing wave over the EC for several days in the from of a ridge. I think his post is basically saying that is about to change later this month. Good find. Anyone else is free to jump right in.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Seems to be a continued attempt at reshuffling the pattern later this month - just to echo what Jeff and others have stated.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies have your back on pretty much all of that. Not a terrible look after Thanksgiving. Thanks for keeping us updated. How do the clusters look on the Euro Weeklies?
  16. Carvers Gap
    Some great information above by John about weather stations. Enjoyed reading that. Looks like TRI has tied two record highs. One on the 9th and then yesterday the 11th. The aren't in the record book yet, so will wait for confirmation from the MRX. This week has fell like summer. Yesterday was a whopping 21 degrees AN and our fourth straight day of double digit departures AN.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I truly don't understand the warmth around the PV. Seems like that would split it or maybe it means it is tightening up.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Holston, all of that sounds bad. Is some of that good? QBO at 30mb may be poised to hit positive levels(regarding January) that we have not seen in some time. It is really high even now.
  19. Carvers Gap
    TRI is currently at 76F which ties the record high for this date.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think as long as the equatorial western Pacific is warm....that is a problem here. I think the overall Pac basin is warmer than normal and is "washing out" the usual ENSO analog stuff(Typhoon Tip has a lot of info on this) due to the gradient being weaker around each ENSO event. That western Pac area is sending the MJO into 4-5 during winter at high amplitude multiple times. But maybe a point could be made that the normal analogs don't actually work right now with SSTs AN in the Pac Basin. I have certainly considered that. I think there is a school of thought in our forum(which I agree with more and more with each passing season) that each year is its own analog. I do think we see 1-2 really severe cold shots. Nina's tend to have those (unless the Nina is really strong). I also think we deal with a very persistent Southeast Ridge. We have already seen some really severe cold in the West this fall. What we need is for the jet to buckle in the East and have one of those shots head this way. But really, we pretty much know that seasonal forecasting can be a crap shoot....so, I truly don't rule anything out.
  21. Carvers Gap
    I agree, with the ENSO state considered. I think we possibly get a storm window in early-mid Dec. We had a similar pattern last winter with no cold....might be a similar result if the models are even halfway correct. Moderate to strong La Nina's are generally very hostile for snow IMBY...further west in the forum area, they can score with that ENSO pattern.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Weeks 3-6....Just took a look at the Euro Weeklies. BN heights in AK and a HB block. Not sure how those two co-exist, but I think I remember that happening just last winter. End result would be storms in early to mid Dec being forced below our latitude and then they come up the EC. Temp profile would be generally lousy, but not a terrible storm track if we could steal some cold at the right time. GFS extended(new product out to 5 weeks) control and Euro Weeklies control show a similar set-up. I use the control just to get an idea of what pattern might be getting washed-out in the ensemble. So long way off, but the first couple of weeks of December look to have a series of cutters and coastals. That does make some sense given the block shown over the Hudson Bay...cold source is lacking however.
  23. Carvers Gap
    I like where the CFSv2 is the morning(it changes often...beware for those new to following wx modeling). Warm rest of November which now looks like a really good call. December begins to dial back the heat, and January w maybe a decent window of opportunity as Jeff alluded to with his excellent graphic on Euro clusters for Jan(really appreciate that share). So, just reading between the lines, looks like we revert to normal(maybe BN) temps by mid-December. I have no idea how long that holds, but would guess to week 2ish of Jan and maybe even week 3. I could easily be wrong, but we may have a shot at cold weather over the holidays. OTH, there is a very really scenario where we just stay ridiculously warm all winter. Why? The MJO regions in the equatorial western Pacific have not cooled as much with the La Nina. If that holds, that is a perfect storm for a really warm winter when combined with moderate to strong La Nina.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Temps next week are forecast at TRI to be 10-20 degrees AN. Our normal highs begin in the mid 60s and lower into the upper 50s as the week goes on. Highs are supposed to be in the mid-upper 70s. Those are some pretty amazing highs considering that days are shorter, and the sun's angle is lower. About a month ago, I thought we had avoided endless summer....wrong.
  25. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS after d10 is a significant break in continuity. Not worth much more discussion on my part. More likely than not that is a hiccup. Not even sure that is worth a mention in the main forecast thread, but sometimes the GFS can catch a pattern shift a bit early and often jumps the gun even. But the 500 pattern is a lot different after d10 compared to other runs by the same model.
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