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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, Jeff hinted at a post-Thanksgiving cool down. Those are several really good sources. What happens after d10 would be a complete reversal of our current pattern(at least temporarily). That said...every, single time that has been shown this fall actual verification put the tough out West. There seems to major model bias almost universally to dumping cold eastward and reverting back westward as reality approaches. But some of the d10+ looks have been interesting to say the least.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, that is the GFS and yeah that is a LONG WAY out there...but that run should wake a few folks up from their long summer naps.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Lots of late night content for those early morning risers...the 0z GFS is less on board with Webber's comments from earlier today(reversal of heights in AK) BUT there does seem to be an Aleutian low showing up fairly consistently. During the past few winters, that has usually set the stage for what meager winter offerings which we have scored with...and I mean meager. That low tends to pump the EPO/PNA ridge (even if temporarily), and forces an eastern trough. One can see that pretty clearly after d10 with the 48 hour 500 trend on Tropical Tidbits. Big banana high over the top, and that would be an EC storm signal past 300. But as a friend of mine would say...but is it right? No idea! LOL.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies certainly hinted that high latitude blocking may well form and push storms into the "low road." Lots of moving parts right now, and highly doubt any modeling has this nailed at this range. Much of what is being discussed is in week 2 and even week 3.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Modeling is definitely not there yet I should add...the 12z EPS control has the path towards a colder EC. Modeling has been slowly becoming murkier. I have generally found that when modeling goes a bit "haywire" during later fall and/or winter....really cold air is entering into NA. Again, I think it is way too early to say where it goes or even that it is a certainty that cold is coming. The very LR stuff out there right now is hinting that early to mid Dec may get cold. I would be down with that since my winter forecast would be in good shape - I actually didn't change it. Just am rolling the dice and staying with my original ideas.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Pretty reliable person on Twitter....One could probably connect what Masiello and Webb are discussing. We have seen plenty of head fakes this fall with almost every head fake resulting in a western trough and record cold there. However, the MJO in conjunction with changes in blocking at high latitudes "might" be signaling that the next outbreak will be further eastward. Whether that is in the center of the country or here in the TN Valley forum area...I don't know.
  7. Carvers Gap
    I went back and looked at his posts on this...sometimes his posts are tough for me to decipher. From what I can gather, that region has been promoting a SE ridge - that MJO area has been a thorn for a couple of winters. He made a correct call back in Oct that the SER was going to lock in. Best I can gather is that he is saying that region in the western Pacific will now begin to interfere with the signal which has produced this monster EC ridge. Lots of debate on what the MJO is about to do. Modeling has definitely trended away from a strong ridge pattern(after next week) to more of an uncertain mix of signals. I mean really we have had a standing wave over the EC for several days in the from of a ridge. I think his post is basically saying that is about to change later this month. Good find. Anyone else is free to jump right in.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Seems to be a continued attempt at reshuffling the pattern later this month - just to echo what Jeff and others have stated.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies have your back on pretty much all of that. Not a terrible look after Thanksgiving. Thanks for keeping us updated. How do the clusters look on the Euro Weeklies?
  10. Carvers Gap
    Some great information above by John about weather stations. Enjoyed reading that. Looks like TRI has tied two record highs. One on the 9th and then yesterday the 11th. The aren't in the record book yet, so will wait for confirmation from the MRX. This week has fell like summer. Yesterday was a whopping 21 degrees AN and our fourth straight day of double digit departures AN.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I truly don't understand the warmth around the PV. Seems like that would split it or maybe it means it is tightening up.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Holston, all of that sounds bad. Is some of that good? QBO at 30mb may be poised to hit positive levels(regarding January) that we have not seen in some time. It is really high even now.
  13. Carvers Gap
    TRI is currently at 76F which ties the record high for this date.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I think as long as the equatorial western Pacific is warm....that is a problem here. I think the overall Pac basin is warmer than normal and is "washing out" the usual ENSO analog stuff(Typhoon Tip has a lot of info on this) due to the gradient being weaker around each ENSO event. That western Pac area is sending the MJO into 4-5 during winter at high amplitude multiple times. But maybe a point could be made that the normal analogs don't actually work right now with SSTs AN in the Pac Basin. I have certainly considered that. I think there is a school of thought in our forum(which I agree with more and more with each passing season) that each year is its own analog. I do think we see 1-2 really severe cold shots. Nina's tend to have those (unless the Nina is really strong). I also think we deal with a very persistent Southeast Ridge. We have already seen some really severe cold in the West this fall. What we need is for the jet to buckle in the East and have one of those shots head this way. But really, we pretty much know that seasonal forecasting can be a crap shoot....so, I truly don't rule anything out.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I agree, with the ENSO state considered. I think we possibly get a storm window in early-mid Dec. We had a similar pattern last winter with no cold....might be a similar result if the models are even halfway correct. Moderate to strong La Nina's are generally very hostile for snow IMBY...further west in the forum area, they can score with that ENSO pattern.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Weeks 3-6....Just took a look at the Euro Weeklies. BN heights in AK and a HB block. Not sure how those two co-exist, but I think I remember that happening just last winter. End result would be storms in early to mid Dec being forced below our latitude and then they come up the EC. Temp profile would be generally lousy, but not a terrible storm track if we could steal some cold at the right time. GFS extended(new product out to 5 weeks) control and Euro Weeklies control show a similar set-up. I use the control just to get an idea of what pattern might be getting washed-out in the ensemble. So long way off, but the first couple of weeks of December look to have a series of cutters and coastals. That does make some sense given the block shown over the Hudson Bay...cold source is lacking however.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I like where the CFSv2 is the morning(it changes often...beware for those new to following wx modeling). Warm rest of November which now looks like a really good call. December begins to dial back the heat, and January w maybe a decent window of opportunity as Jeff alluded to with his excellent graphic on Euro clusters for Jan(really appreciate that share). So, just reading between the lines, looks like we revert to normal(maybe BN) temps by mid-December. I have no idea how long that holds, but would guess to week 2ish of Jan and maybe even week 3. I could easily be wrong, but we may have a shot at cold weather over the holidays. OTH, there is a very really scenario where we just stay ridiculously warm all winter. Why? The MJO regions in the equatorial western Pacific have not cooled as much with the La Nina. If that holds, that is a perfect storm for a really warm winter when combined with moderate to strong La Nina.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Temps next week are forecast at TRI to be 10-20 degrees AN. Our normal highs begin in the mid 60s and lower into the upper 50s as the week goes on. Highs are supposed to be in the mid-upper 70s. Those are some pretty amazing highs considering that days are shorter, and the sun's angle is lower. About a month ago, I thought we had avoided endless summer....wrong.
  19. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS after d10 is a significant break in continuity. Not worth much more discussion on my part. More likely than not that is a hiccup. Not even sure that is worth a mention in the main forecast thread, but sometimes the GFS can catch a pattern shift a bit early and often jumps the gun even. But the 500 pattern is a lot different after d10 compared to other runs by the same model.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Definitely. Said as much a few weeks back. My main concern is the pattern is showing next to no sign of flipping. If anything, the high over the Aleutians is getting stronger...even on seasonal models. We will have a chance or two, always do. I am just not a fan of near record warm temps in Nov. The ridges (in the East) which are being depicted are about as strong as I can remember. One other concern is that the type of warmth being shown likely has staying power. It might take 1-2 weeks of a new pattern just to scour this out. When these attempted cold fronts come through from the NW, the warmth rebounds almot like it is summer. Just crazy to see cold fronts gain headway into the East even during Nov. Hoping the 4-6 week pattern rule wins the day. Seems like we have been in this pattern for a majority of the past 3 years....meaning cold dumps in the front range of the northern Rockies and can’t push SE once we get deep into fall and into winter. I do suspect that the atmosphere will balance things out with a western ridge at some point. If we are going to have a La Niña, needs to be strong so as to bring the PAC Basin backing balance - been far to warm relative to norms.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The current pattern of a ridge in the East is about as "locked-in" as one can get on modeling. Barely a hint of it breaking down during the next 4-6 weeks. Summer is back.
  22. Carvers Gap
    If there is one fly in the ointment of the really warm look, it is the tropics. It is not out of the realm of possibility for a storm to shake-up the pattern. I think Jeff mentioned this as a possibility. What we would need is for one of those storms to go hybrid, and drive the trough deep into the East and force the PNA to pop. That might back-up the pattern enough to force the ridge out of the Aleutians(that Aleutians ridge is there for nearly the entire 46 day run of the Weeklies).
  23. Carvers Gap
    I think I am going to have to update my winter forecast from over the summer to much AN for December, but going to wait a week or so before doing that. Weeklies have 5-10 days which are seasonal in Dec, and pretty much AN to much AN for most of the run - goes out to the third week of December now. Very little relaxation from the upcoming, very warm pattern...which sometimes that much continuity can be a red flag. That said, I am seeing very little in the way of teleconnections which would support cold in the East - that big ridge in the Aleutians is pretty much locked in. Impressive warmth upcoming for November and will feel much like early summer. Let's hope it is wrong. Looks very much like a strong La Nina pattern.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Really warm week next week shaping up. Not many "low hanging fruit" record highs though. Still, looks like Nov 11 with a high of 76 is our best shot at TRI. But y'all, those are going to be about as warm as one can get for November....so other record highs cannot be ruled out. Will take some time to get rid of that warmth once the pattern changes. That type of heat just doesn't disappear. Atmosphere is going to be supercharged with plenty of energy. Past that, not many hints that the pattern does anything but stay really warm in the East. We all know in fall that can change swiftly, however. I would guess this pattern might last into the early part of December. As I noted earlier, maybe the silver lining is that we "might" be setting up for a switch to cooler around mid-Dec. That said, if you like cool wx for fall...this pattern we are about to enter pretty much sucks.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Good looking yard, Powell.
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