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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS just looks way too suppressed to me.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Keep brining down 1040+ highs and one would think that we eventually hook up with a system that has frozen precip. The GFS seems too fast this weekend which is causing it to miss the phase, but that is an overall trend so far at 12z with the ICON doing the same. Still, looks like plenty of opportunities past that.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Crazy, but Kingsport has had snow all day. Normally, we don't get NW flow event snow. Ground is white this evening IMBY. Probably .5" so far. Super fine flakes coming down.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Do yourself a favor and go to Tropical Tidbits, select the 18z GEFS, then temp anomaly, then North American view, and just enjoy the d7-16 look.
  5. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS Para has the S/M event...
  6. Carvers Gap
    And to be clear, I would shocked if that map verified...that is just for fun. However, I do think tracking a significant event or two is not out of the question. The GFS, CMC, and Euro have been throwing haymakers. The pattern (IF THE COLD BOUNDARY HOLDS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND HOLDS WITHOUT GOING TO CUBA), is a great set-up if we can time precip. We have been tracking this trough amplification since Jan 19th - all the way back in the other thread. Pretty cool.
  7. Carvers Gap
    What is wild is that that the 12z GEFS certainly supports something like two snow storms - maybe not that crazy looking, but two decent snows back-to-back. Cold air intrusions this winter have generally supported snowfall each time they have happened. We haven't really had an extended shot of cold like is being portrayed. So, going to be a fun test.
  8. Carvers Gap
    We just want the cold front to stall south of the forum area for just long enough so that an active southern jet attacks it.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Probably 95-96 is closer or maybe an old school overrunning event. 93 was a monster. That map is the result of two big storms which follow one right after the other. Spacing is perfect and the cold air boundary is prime. Assuming the GFS is maybe to quick with its deeper cold, I think a big winter storm is certainly possible over the sub-forum.
  10. Carvers Gap
    If that verifies, I may retire....or just die from shoveling first.
  11. Carvers Gap
    I like my map better. 240 with Kuchera...
  12. Carvers Gap
    Sorry, should have led with this...Anything interesting on the 12z Euro today?
  13. Carvers Gap
    Not sure if the snow or the cold after the snow is more impressive. My house pipes just shivered.
  14. Carvers Gap
    If the EPO ever cranks and Alaska's cold is dislodged..... Low tonight in Fairbanks is -40F with wind chill advisories of -60F.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Raining here in Kingsport. LOL - no lie. Upslope events are not our thing here.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Could easily happen. These patterns with huge temp swings tend to cause huge fluctuations. Seems like this winter all we need is a 3-4 day cold shot to be in business. Looks like a strong amplification this weekend, and maybe another mid-month. If that pans out, we may all be ready for spring. LOL!
  17. Carvers Gap
    There are several nice members, but that is just insane. LOL.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Really, the setup verbatim is not whether it will snow but where it will snow due to the cold air being modeled. Long way to go, but it is pretty rare to see that type of pattern.
  19. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS has the storm next Sunday.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS is backing up the operational out to 168. Where it once had a weak frontal passage on the 5th, it now has a massive shot of cold air which drives SE of this subform area with much BN heights over the OH Valley.
  21. Carvers Gap
    There are multiple snow events inside of d10 ranging from backside snow, to clippers, to full on winter storms. Not saying any or all of this verifies...just reporting what is on modeling.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS mean and GEPS means are bonkers. The GEPS has 2"+ mean for all of TN and into norther MS and AL. GEFS isn't far from that. EPS is roiling now. Let's see if we can hold onto that signal. Could be a blip, but wow...what a blip if so.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro for the next 10 days...that is insane. Kuchera. Smokies w/ nearly 40."
  24. Carvers Gap
    Seriously, Wow. The CMC was nuts and so was the GFS. That CMC look at 240...after it had already brought snow with with the earlier storm. Looks like modeling is trending slightly further south with the freezing line. Good sign.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Just checking in to make sure everyone is doing well after that snoozer of a 12z suite.....
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