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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    TRI's wx data for the past nineteen days of October. Notably, on October 3rd TRI had a record high temp of 94. Just two weeks later, the high was 60. That impressive 34 degree change definitely challenged the wardrobe of many. Shorts and t-shirsts to hoodies and rain jackets! Five of the last six days have featured BN temps with plentiful rainfall and the first frost of the season on rooftops IMBY.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Very beneficial rains fell in NE TN yesterday which is a regions that has struggled to get rainfall before last week.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Definitely a weak trend long term to slide a SER in south Georgia and the coastal Carolinas. With that cold water off of South America, does not surprise me at all. I continue to think a back-and-forth pattern is likely with cold building in the northwest and surging SE w/ arm air surging in between cold air masses...and significant(but temporary) heat at that. Sometimes with ensembles, the average/mean shows up and the average or mean is not the actual weather. That SE ridge is going to be significant in front of incoming cold fronts, and I wonder if maybe that is why it is showing up. The GEFS nor GEPS have this, but the overall long wave pattern over NA is fairly similar among all global ensembles - GEFS would have a SER if it backed up a few hundred miles. The Euro does a good job in detecting that SE ridge early. Now, the Euro bias is also to hold cold air back in the SW. However, it has been correct about this for months on end, but sometimes it misses because of this. I think with it being shoulder season, we are just going to see an unsettled pattern. This past week is probably a great example. Lots of conflicting signals out there, and I am sure it is playing havoc with LR modeling including along with the changing wavelengths of the season. Lots of moving parts.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I actually like wx twitter...just have to filter out the blah. I literally only follow like twenty people total on Twitter. For me, pics use up a ton of my AmWx storage, so just easier to use a Tweet. Point is the with Tweet above, though we are about to enter a normal to BN pattern...tough to extrapolate that too far out as the 6wave pattern is likely not sustainable - need to have a more stable wave pattern. That will likely break down fairly quickly. For those saying there will be a quick return to warmth, that pattern probably supports that - meaning it will break down. That 6wave pattern is fairly progressive and won’t allow heat to build over one area for long. But once it breaks down heat will possibly build under either a western or eastern ridge.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I saw one of these stations last spring and again over the summer during trips out there. Pretty cool article on cloud seeding in the Salt River Range with the intent to produce more snow that will in turn produce better water years for energy and agricultural purposes. BTW, this guy runs a great blog. I think he used to work in Oklahoma at the storm center. http://blog.starvalleyweather.com/2019/10/14/cloud-seeding-in-star-valley-and-western-wyoming-an-update-2019/
  6. Carvers Gap
    I thought it was windy today...when I opted to stay under the bridge, I might have understated the winds. Winds were clocked in the 30mph range today in areas of E TN. If you have ever watched the weather roll in over the ridge lines at higher elevations...that is what it looked like. Grabbed this graphic from MRX's FB page...
  7. Carvers Gap
    I am with you Jed...when I looked out and saw it raining this morning, felt like I was watching it snow(it had become such a rarity). Anyway, looks like wind chills this evening in southwest VA are ranging form the low to upper 30s. Wind chills at TRI are in the low to mid 40s there. Wind is really howling. This is my kind of weather. Friday morning has a mention of patchy frost by MRX for Kingsport as lows dip into the mid 30s. Will be interesting if later this month TRI can approach a record low as many are in the mid 20s. The GFS has been toying with this for several runs - but it has a notable cold bias so we will see. Wouldn't be surprised to even set a record high early next week. Looks like some wild temp swings coming up. That is fall to me...some nice days and some gnarly weather days. I had to stop jogging today and chill out under a bridge as sheets of light rain and drizzle came up the river on about 15 mph winds. Looked like the kind of thing you would normally see at higher elevations. Anyway, I didn't really chicken out by trying to stay drive. I was done walking my route and was waiting for my ride. Just surreal to be roasting a couple of weeks ago and then to be witnessing a scene like that. Wild, but why I like the weather and find it interesting. My neighbor saw me heading out in shorts and a T-shirt and noted that it was probably time to switch to warmer clothes...I was thinking he was likely right as I was standing under that bridge.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Pretty good illustration of the hemispheric pattern where the wavelengths are really shortened up likely due to the season change. Finally have the term I was looking for earlier in the thread - wave. So, wave3 and wave4 patterns are fairly stable IMHO with w4 patterns being very common during winter(correct me if I am wrong on that). The wave6 pattern below is probably not sustainable for very long. What becomes the stable pattern once this(if it even verifies) reverses back to a wave4 or wave3 pattern is debatable. Pattern could revert back to the most recent warm pattern or form something new. IMHO, sort of like spinning the wheel on the old Price is Right. The wheel is gonna eventually stop...but can we win a new car is the question? Also note this is waaaay out there and may not verify...but this also might explain why the GFS is so cold - cause it might be wrong. LOL. Anyway, I thought it was a interesting look even if it didn't verify.
  9. Carvers Gap
    So.....haven't seen rain for months. The band is heading into Western NC over the weekend. A low comes out of the GOM along the SE coast throwing copious amounts of precip back int W NC. I think we get the event in, but gonna be a tight fit. Hoping that system doesn't get there until late Saturday night - Euro needs to be right!
  10. Carvers Gap
    For the eastern two grand divisions, looks like the lion's share of precip fell north of I-40. NW TN, NE AR, SE MO, and the western half of KY did very well along with areas just north of Nashville. Also appears that anywhere 0.80-1.00" of rain in the Kingsport area this morning. For once, an over producer IMBY!!! I thought RadarScope looked too low. So, I scanned some wxunderground stations and many showed one inch totals near MBY which seemed too high. AHPS seems to give some credence to those higher totals, though maybe not quite that high. Still, a good rain event for some with a maybe some more still to fall. https://water.weather.gov/precip/
  11. Carvers Gap
    A big snowstorm in NE TN in late October is the kiss of death here. Cold Novembers, as John has documented, generally favor cold winters. Last winter was an exception to that rule. As Jeff noted as well, probably want to see some strong cold fronts then - the winter will remember what happens in November. However, I really don't like seeing snowstorms in October - though I don't really have a choice in the matter so I just enjoy it anyway. LOL. I definitely think there is always a danger that sometimes cold source areas get emptied of cold and then it takes them some time to rebuild. Though, I am sure there is a line of thinking that cold sources can replenish quickly.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Lastly...what a welcome sight!
  13. Carvers Gap
    FWIW, the d10-15 EPS is pretty cold....time will tell.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Glad to have you posting on here. I look forward to more posts.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Some fun stats. TRI had 44 straight days of AN temps until yesterday when its departure was -2. During that same time frame, MBY(airport had a little more precip due to a few more showers) had just 0.1" rain. Saturday's high of 71 was TRI's coolest high temp since May 15th just looking quickly at things. Temps will likely be below normal to well below normal on Wednesday and Thursday and Friday with highs struggling to reach 60 on Thursday. Looks like Friday AM has an outside chance of scattered frost with lows approaching the mid30s. The high on Thursday will be nearly 30-35 degrees cooler than it was just two weeks ago. It has been a remarkable transition.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Can I just say how awesome it is not have temperatures in the mid90s everyday? Feels like a million bucks out there. I am jealous of the frosty mornings, John. We might have a shot at scattered frost later this week here. First freeze and first frost may show up at the same time if we miss Thursday!
  17. Carvers Gap
    Very good points about the PDO. I do think the SST gradient is making some usually dependable indices less dependable. Also, agree that the -AMO did help to offset the POD during the 70s. It is a good example of how a favorable Atlantic can really help. Also, good points by John about the EPO. Going to be interesting last to which drivers really have the most influence. Last winter, my ideas were actually warmer than most forecasts even with my backloaded winter idea, but not still not anywhere close to being warm enough. If the Weeklies from last night verified, I would feel really good about winter...but no way I am dying on that hill just yet(meaning one run of the Weeklies). LOL. Seriously, the discussion on this page has been stellar.
  18. Carvers Gap
    As for winter...man, I was tired last night and hope my posts weren't too disconnected. Shew. Anyway, winter at this latitude and elevation has never been a slam dunk. It is really going to depend on whether cold air and moisture get into the pattern at the same time. Bad patterns can produce snow and good patterns can be snowless. So really, at this range we can only guess the pattern. Last winter looked like a slam dunk to many, and it never materialized. For me, I thought December would be warm but Jan/Feb cold. Hit the first and missed the second two. All three were warm. At this point, just need to see where the cold sets up shop...and where the storm track is. I remember us all seeing those awesome runs of the Euro Weeklies...and then Jeff noting, "....but the storm track is over Kansas." Indeed it was and indeed it stayed there. So, going to have to see where the cold and storm track sets up. Fun to speculate though!
  19. Carvers Gap
    I agree with Jeff that the Weeklies are notorious for being wrong during shoulder season, mainly outside of week four. So, even though last night's run supports some of my thoughts...those thoughts are no more right nor wrong than they were yesterday prior to this run. So, right now I am just sharing a 30day 500 map from d16-46. The Euro Weeklies have slowly evolved to this vs just one big flip. Are they right? No idea. Again, 2m temps past wk4 are just raging warm and likely incorrect. It is going to be cold and significantly cold somewhere in NA. I will say, I really wish we had that look in January. Features that are present: 1. Kind of a hybrid PNA/EPO ridge 2. WAR(Western Atlantic Ridge) 3. Blocking over Greenland and over most of the pole. 4. Eastern trough centered a bit too to the east to really deliver news making cold to our forum area. NE might be really cold. 5. Likely a coastal/inland storm track as systems run into the WAR. Long story short. Looks very much like the pattern for the next weeks just being repeated. Huge if...but if that verifies, the trough over eastern NA is likely stronger and the ridge out West stronger. Fly in the ointment would be that the pattern retrogrades some late in the run. The WAR gets into the NE. But again...it is shoulder season and I can just about guarantee that map is going to change and likely for the worse as that is about as good a 500 map as one can get at that range - if you like fall that is. 3.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Great discussion by all BTW. Going to hit the sack. 0z suites are rolling. Plenty to discuss tomorrow. Will be super interesting to see if the QBO drops again this month. Also, low solar can cause some crazy effects as well and produce opposite results of common analogs. Anyway, my mind has gone to mush at this late hour. Cheers!
  21. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, John beat me to it. -PDO here is not a slam dunk warm winter by a long shot. What is tricky(and my mind is tired...will have to pick this up tomorrow) is that knowing when the PDO and ENSO are both in phase or out of sync. Right now, that pool of water of SA being cold is going to be a forecasting headache. One could argue that the PDO and ENSO are actually of similar phase if one looks at the mid-PAC, but one could also argue that the are out of phase given the colder anomalies off of SA. Again, conflicting signals. I will keep rolling with my thoughts in June...but I am not supremely confident in any look right now. My mind says that +NAO is gonna be a problem. My gut says that the seasonal models will be wrong again this winter. Low of averages is going to eventually end the cold over the NW. The SE is tricky business and the TN forum area is even trickier. Again, I don't have a ton of confidence in any solution...but I do like less of a locked-in pattern this winter for any region. That said, that is just borderline guessing right now.
  22. Carvers Gap
    IDK...gonna have to dig a little bit. I do understand the correlation map...the labeling of -PDO=warm for the SE is throwing me off. We may have to disagree that is a textbook PDO. To me that gradient is not sharp enough around the edges. One thing that Typhoon Tip has stated is that the lack of gradient is creating issues with analog years in the Pacific, in some cases actually resulting in the opposite of what one would think should happen. Jeff has alluded to that as well. The above ideas have definite merit. Will have to give them a closer look when I have time. Below is a textbook -PDO with a very sharp gradient with waters found near coastal AK and Cali/Baja. Right now, the Pacific does not have that sharp of a gradient in those areas. It is close by definition, but very muted w a poor gradient IMHO. Reference: https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/pdo
  23. Carvers Gap
    Good info. I am not following that first PDO map, though - labels don't seem to fit or my mind might be missing the point....Anyway, -NAOs though usually signal very warm temps here during summer and early fall. No surprise there as that teleconnection has been accurate. As you noted the -NAO signal then converts to a cold signal during winter. Not sure when that -NAO finally begins to help us...but it has kept us abnormally warm for much of early fall. The cold off western SA definitely will be in play and may have consequences that equal the north PAC. It is a bit of a Nina signal, even though a Modoki is likely. That ENSO area has a tendency to signal a pretty good SER in early winter and then the SER collapses mid-winter. Will be interesting to see if any big storms or deteriorating typhoons impact that warm water in the GOA. That warm water will have a tendency to push AN heights into AK. That is where things get tricky. The past couple of winters have had the cold tuck almost underneath an Alaskan ridge. What is tricky is that if that kink in the jet (which is allowing for that cold under that high) resolves, the cold comes East. I tend to think this winter will feature more of a progressive pattern with cold building in the NW and then heading SE, sometimes severe in nature. Of note, I have seen several seasonal forecast predict a +NAO for this winter which would make since it has been negative for much of summer. So, I do agree that the Pacific will have to deliver cold as the Atlantic may be tough to convince. That said, seasonal weather models last winter were about as bad as I can remember. I still tend to believe that winter sets up shop in the Rockies for December and then spreads eastward during January and February. As PSU noted in the MA forum, tons of conflicting signals this winter and it is just tough to know which one. I agree that the oceans will likely drive it, but which signal....the Indian Ocean, the MJO, a falling or stalled QBO, PDO, warm ENSO in the mid-PAC, cold signal in the eastern PAC, a warm GOM, etc? Lastly, we are way overdue for a pattern change. This has been pretty much locked-in for nearly ten months. It can't stay there forever. But I guess it is always safer to bet the streak. I will comment a bit more on the Weeklies tomorrow. The do look colder for weeks 1-4ish. That said...shoulder it is season and the bust potential is always high.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I would not be shocked if this is the pattern for winter....cold builds over the Rockies and then rushes East with pockets of very warm air pushing up the east side of approaching fronts in between. Obviously, it will be less warm as the winter progress, just speaking of comparative norms. The seasonal models and even Weeklies bounce around from western trough to mid-continent trough for DJF. I think that might be because this winter could potentially feature a fairly progressive pattern where winter starts out West and builds eastward. I also realize that October is not a great indicator of winter. However, with the snowpack building over western Canada, at some point that cold air mass will move SE. Also agree that it is difficult to tell if this is a shake-up due to wavelengths or is an actual pattern change...but it is certainly different than the mega ridge. As a numbers game, I just think another big western winter is less likely, though I do think they get going strong in December....but the West has been due for big winters after the 90s which was a terrible decade in terms of water if I remember correctly. However, we are long overdue for a pattern change and wx models are notorious for perpetuating old patterns. No idea, but that is part of what makes weather a great hobby....And hey, the Vols even won! Might be that their play teleconnects well to the SER. Big SER beginning this weekend, and of course the Vols play at Alabama. Might be something to that.
  25. Carvers Gap
    As I dig a bit deeper(catching up after being out of pocket since Thursday PM)....modeling looks to have maintained a look where the SER only briefly bounces back next weekend and then it looks like maybe 1-2 pretty strong cold fronts move in later in the month into early October. No idea if true at this range. Modeling is yet again signaling a pretty significant pattern change. Does it hold or is it muted or even real? Time will tell. While the last "step down" was certainly muted, high temps are roughly 10-20 degrees cooler(depending on what days being compared) than even ten days ago. Temps are still AN, but tolerable to even pleasant. Looks to me like some true fall temps are going to show up during the coming 2-3 weeks. Easy prediction since it is fall...but given the past mega-ridge, I was beginning to wonder if fall would show. Interestingly, SE KY has a special weather statement posted for scattered frost tonight! It is important to note that some pretty warm air not unsurprisingly surges northward between cold fronts. I would not be surprised(as I noted in earlier posts) to see yet another record high or two posted. What I think might be interesting is that a record low might be approached as well due to the sharpness of the ridges being modeled on operational and ensembles. (That EPS ridge/trough look was not warm. ) I think it likely a lock that October finishes AN. Those first four days and the slow step down to tolerable temps thereafter(still well AN) pretty much assured that. Looks like TRI will have some highs in the 60s this week with even some low 60s possible. Within roughly 14 days of the mega ridge, that would mean that high temps have dropped by roughly 30 degrees. Again, I think we see a bounce back but not weeks-on-end of that heat ridge. While it was cold last evening while sitting outside, I think most(while cold) were thankful to see those mid90s temps gone.
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