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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    0z GFS is rolling....probably still going to see 2-3 more runs of volatility and then see models begin to lock-in by early Saturday.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Nina's here are generally not great producers of snow, but there are several notable exceptions. Makes it really difficult to us an analog package here due to that. Thera are a small group of analogs that are cold and snowy...and buck the trend. I put my ideas out over the summer. Had December as normalish(I think...too lazy to go check) with Jan and Feb increasingly warm. However, I think intrusions of extreme weather(winter) might happen. Might be some long stretches in the East between those events...but Nina winters in TN have held some surprises. After seeing our weak El Nino(normally favorable) go down in flames, makes me wonder if choosing analogs right now might be very dependent on the warm pool in the NE PAC and the SSTs west of the equatorial dateline which affect the MJO. When those SSTs west of the dateline are overly warm, seems to send the MJO into phases 4-6 more frequently which is a torch here. Probably could add in the IO which sends convection into that areas as well. Additionally, Typhoon Tip noted that the lack of gradient with SST temps in the PAC might be affecting ENSO stuff...meaning washing out those signals. But seriously great stuff and thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts here. Really enjoyed it.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The '59 December analog is just uncanny at 500. 1995 SST look in the Pacific is super similar - was kicking that around earlier this week. Since that is the Holy Grail of winters here, I have not mentioned it. But the big warm pool in the NE PAC is there during a La Nina as well. We have used some analogs from the 50s recently as well. Think '54 was kind of a running joke for a while as we broke record after record(high temps) during the fall of 2019. Crazy stat for TRI, 2019 and 1954 hold HALF of the hight temp records for the month of September with 15 combined records. Those same two years hold 8 of the records for October with four apiece. So, for the months of September and October, those two years hold 23 records out of 61 days.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Interesting stuff. Now the years for the winters are the years for those winters' Decembers, right? For example, 1995 is short 95-96?
  5. Carvers Gap
    @raindancewx, pretty remarkable post in the MA forum. I am going to tag you in our winter spec thread even though your post is about the upcoming early Dec pattern. Our pattern thread is focused on the storm as it should be. But wanted to look past that a bit. How did the rest of that 58-59 winter finish up? For the rest of you all, REMARKABLE similarities to what is being modeled for December. Just trying to get your opinion on what happens next....
  6. Carvers Gap
    They are gone on top of Bays for sure. One on my street is still pale green...as in my front yard. The try and I are at odds. LOL. I hope the wind tonight strips that sucker bare.
  7. Carvers Gap
    @nrgjeff, what are your thoughts on the Euro Weeklies?
  8. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS is similar to 12z....the overall expanse is the storms is much bigger.
  9. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS is an inland runner with the main cluster running from just west of Columbis, SC, to DC. There are solutions on either side of that FWIW, but looks every so slightly east of 0z and 6z off the top of my head.
  10. Carvers Gap
    That is an inland runner right there. Looks like very little energy transfer.
  11. Carvers Gap
    And another storm comes right after it which gets suppressed by the massive NW flow - the first storm almost acts like a southerly displaced 50/50 low. That could verbatim get places in our southern reaches some frozen stuff.
  12. Carvers Gap
    ...And if that is even the slightest over amped, that is coming east some. What a storm on that run.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Man, the 12z Euro...that is a whopper of a storm. I would be licking my chops in middle TN. Wow. Foot totals on the Plateau. Two foot totals in central KY.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Ditto. Yeah, take a look at the Canadian at 500 after d5. PNA on steroids. If that verifies, going to be tough for anything to cut after the first storm, and it may not either.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Just did my leaves last night. 25mph winds on tap later today and tonight....crap.
  16. Carvers Gap
    6z GEFS snow mean (which has admittedly been a metric which has been absolutely worthless during the past two winters) has 4-6" of snow over E TN. The EPS is 2-3" with more in the mountains...and an elevation dependent look. I like to use NE TN as a benchmark, because it is easier to see if the storms are elevation dependent - and it is close. One interesting note in the LR, both the GEPS and GEFS have moved to a cleaner ridge out West which is more of a -EPO(GEPS is both PNA and EPO ridge)...but the interesting thing is they pull the trough back. The EPS pretty much holds the upcoming pattern in place. My thinking(and it could be wrong) is that if we can get the EPO ridge after the PNA(due to retrograding), that we might be able to squeeze another week or two out of the pattern. If the GFS and GEPS verity later in the run, that is a very stable look and not as wonky as the upcoming first two weeks of winter. JB has noted that he thinks the pattern flips to an eastern ridge prior to Christmas due to the MJO...well, plus that fits their seasonal forecast. The Weeklies on Monday did sort of fit that idea, but they IMHO really didn't lock that eastern ridge into place. Right now, I think LR forecasting is not for the faint of heart as this early Dec pattern resembles more of an El Nino(trough in the SE) than a Nina. I do think because we are getting this early chance, that opens the door for 1-2 more windows later this winter...but who knows.
  17. Carvers Gap
    I should sat at met85 mentioned, the system early next week is a money set-up for upslope areas.
  18. Carvers Gap
    6z GEFS is a Miller B with energy transfer east of the mountains after it cuts. 0z EPS is more of an Apps runner with equal members on each side. Still a ways to go. As others have noted the energy behind that first system is very interesting. BOTH the Euro and GEM operationals bring it up the Piedmont as a Miller A. Still a lot of options on the table. NE TN could score with the first storm even if the storm cuts as the storm has both upslope and wrap around....but it sort of has to be the same Miller B that DC scores with - meaning the energy transfers earlier. The 6z GFS operational actually develops a lee side low, and that is one scenario for E TN. Middle and western portions of the forum area have a real chance with system one. TRI picks up 2-3" of snow with each system on the operational Euro. It is a bit surreal to be tracking anything when one thinks of where modeling was (excluding the GEM) early last week. LOL..
  19. Carvers Gap
    18z GEFS is basically several waves running a boundary after the initial storm. E TN saw a fairly strong uptick in the snow mean compared to 12z, especially NE TN and SW VA. Where is @BlunderStorm?
  20. Carvers Gap
    If the Euro is a bit over-amped.....look out.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The Euro after d10 has them lined-up across the Pacific cutting and likely cutting right under that PNA ridge which gets hooked into a block over Greenland. If that d7-10 is even remotely close to being correct, then cold air from the Arctice would be released southward. The blocking on the Euro after 200 is insane. Again, that has been a huge red flag that the run was going to fail(in the past). Thing is, that look is all of the way to 200 now. For kicks and giggles look at the 500 map from the North Pole view...and just watch that block evolve.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The system early next week is probably going to have to be watched. Euro is amped more and it cuts through TN. GFS is more progressive, and jogs eastward. CMC sort of splits the difference. The pattern from d7-15 has several pieces of energy with blocking over the top. Just need to reel in one of these(and there are multiple systems) during the next couple of weeks. Would appear that major changes(to our current pattern) are potentially on the way. Great overnight discussion.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Beginning around 210...now the 0z GFS has an inland runner Miller A. Big run. Long way to go.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Autocorrect is absolutely shredding my posts today. I have to get bifocals strengthened in my glasses - actually went for an eye appointment today. So, when it autocorrects...it sort of looks right when I am on my phone. Went back and read some posts this evening on my computer(bigger print). Looked like some of the older posts were written in Old English.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Needless to say, very little ensemble support for that. 2/30 members have it.
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