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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    So is the NAM the furtherest West solution now? Going to be a good upslope event. MRX has updated their afternoon disco and has a prelim snow map. Elevation driven event for their forecast.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Second storm on the 12z GFS just a monster with 957mb off Bar Harbor. (saw the mention in the MA thread and thought...no way....well, way)
  3. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS shows the shift eastward. There is a cluster of lows over central(east side of central) NC that wasn't on any of the three previous runs. The 12z EPS is south and east of previous runs. So, looks like the trend is just that(south and east) for the 12z suite. Does that continue? Maybe. I think at some point things shift back NW after the eastward jog stops. Will be interesting to see if the Euro does indeed end-up being too far to the west during the past few days.
  4. Carvers Gap
    That 12z run of the Euro...just want it to nudge just a bit more east of the Apps where it can consolidate (if you live in the E TN valley....stay where it is if in middle TN). The Apps disrupted the system quite a bit with that shift. There are times it shifts roughly 200 miles east. Problem is the slp gets disorganized so sometimes a shift is just a result of about three different low locations.
  5. Carvers Gap
    We might really not want that trend to continue at that increment...that is how much it moved.
  6. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro is east of its 0z run...sometimes well east.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Hour 192 snow accumulations on the CMC at Tropical Tidbits. This is from TWO systems...
  8. Carvers Gap
    Check out meteocentre. Not as good as yours, but gives you a heads-up. Will be interested to see the smaller time increments on the gif.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The UKMET at meteocentre looks slightly east. Biggest thing I notice is that the slp along the GOM is east on many of the models in the 12z suite. Some go the Miller A route while some lift due north. UKMET looks like it sent party of its low east of the Apps before heading straight to TRI form east central Alabama. Wrap around is wicked with the UKMET.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Agree. Storms like this wobble quite (with each run) a bit due to the phase being tough to model (timing and placement). The envelope right now, though trending slightly eastward, doesn't leave middle TN out of the game at all. I do think places like Monterey might be sitting pretty nice. For MBY, definitely hoping for an eastward jog...for yours I will be happy to see it jog back west. Hoping we can get accumulating snow in the forum area to start the season.
  11. Carvers Gap
    No problem! The 12z CMC really upped your totals in Corbin. Been interesting to watch.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Definitely like it!
  13. Carvers Gap
    Looks to me like that from is far enough south that it is causing a later phase. I always hold out hope(no matter how unfounded!) that he slp gets further east and pulls due north. Those traditionally are pretty good storms. Also of note, many of the models are popping a low now over Delmarva pretty consistently which is a pretty good sign of a strong storm.
  14. Carvers Gap
    At 42 the 12z CMC is south and east of its 0z run and slight weaker. Last comment on that model so as not to gum up the thread...trend south and east with it as well.
  15. Carvers Gap
    CMC at 24 is further south but looks like it has the ability to come north quite quickly from the Louisiana/TX border.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Can already tell the 12z CMC has initialed slightly quicker with the northern low in Alberta when compared to 0z. Edit: but the Holston's front is a hair further south.
  17. Carvers Gap
    12z CMC is now rolling.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Which model has that modeled the best?
  19. Carvers Gap
    Going to be a really good test of modeling with this system. Getting the phase right seems to be the hurdle.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Pretty much a great angle in terms of winds.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS is just weaker by a few mb. One can go to TT and toggle back about 5 runs from that point. You can see the system slide eastward every so slightly. Could it be a more progressive bias from the GFS? Maybe. That weaker solution is likely due to a later phase. This could still trend into a stronger system east of the Apps or it could just run the Apps. Lots of moving parts and interesting to watch.
  22. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS is way eastward with the slp....phase is just later. There are two lobes of precip with the southern system - one over northern MS and the other sliding along the GOM. When the lobe over norther MS is weaker, the primary low/energy shifts to the GOM. I am guessing that is due to a later phase. Pretty much can see that on all modeling. When the lobe over MS is stronger, system and slp are west which indicates an earlier phase. Finesse stuff.
  23. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS is rolling now....
  24. Carvers Gap
    Some decent differences in the RGEM in SLP placement and strengthening immediately after hour 40.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Seems like the differences go back to when the storm comes north from Louisiana. Recent solutions get the storm further East before turning. The 12z RGEM pivots the bottom of the total precip shield eastward and the precip shield in Indiana and Illinois westward. Was a bit later with the turn but sharper turn north once it turned. As Holston notes, once the northern stream energy grabs it, it goes almost due northward. It is worth noting that the RGEM shifted eastward in regards to when it arrived in the TN Valley. May well be that the trend is a later phase.
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