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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Storm is stuck in Ohio. Entered at 123 and still there at 153. That stall is reducing separation. Might force that next system way down there.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Man, just crazy to see a storm sit there at that strength and spin nearly in the same place for a couple of time intervals.
  3. Carvers Gap
    And with a storm potentially that big, I bet things are not worked out quite yet. Going to depend on the all important timing of the phase.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Going to leave some room potentially for the next storm to come north - if there is more separation due to quicker speeds of storm one(assuming storm two has not also sped up.).
  5. Carvers Gap
    That storm is sub 990. Whew.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Gonna be a decent upslope event for NW facing slopes if this were to verify.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Is also a bit faster with a sharper gradient. Snow showers in place by 114 over middle TN.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Stronger slp out to 108 which pulls everything just a bit west compared to 18z.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Out to 90. Does not look like a consolidated slp coming out of the GOM. Looks like energy transfer will happen at some point.
  10. Carvers Gap
    0z GFS is rolling....probably still going to see 2-3 more runs of volatility and then see models begin to lock-in by early Saturday.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Nina's here are generally not great producers of snow, but there are several notable exceptions. Makes it really difficult to us an analog package here due to that. Thera are a small group of analogs that are cold and snowy...and buck the trend. I put my ideas out over the summer. Had December as normalish(I think...too lazy to go check) with Jan and Feb increasingly warm. However, I think intrusions of extreme weather(winter) might happen. Might be some long stretches in the East between those events...but Nina winters in TN have held some surprises. After seeing our weak El Nino(normally favorable) go down in flames, makes me wonder if choosing analogs right now might be very dependent on the warm pool in the NE PAC and the SSTs west of the equatorial dateline which affect the MJO. When those SSTs west of the dateline are overly warm, seems to send the MJO into phases 4-6 more frequently which is a torch here. Probably could add in the IO which sends convection into that areas as well. Additionally, Typhoon Tip noted that the lack of gradient with SST temps in the PAC might be affecting ENSO stuff...meaning washing out those signals. But seriously great stuff and thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts here. Really enjoyed it.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The '59 December analog is just uncanny at 500. 1995 SST look in the Pacific is super similar - was kicking that around earlier this week. Since that is the Holy Grail of winters here, I have not mentioned it. But the big warm pool in the NE PAC is there during a La Nina as well. We have used some analogs from the 50s recently as well. Think '54 was kind of a running joke for a while as we broke record after record(high temps) during the fall of 2019. Crazy stat for TRI, 2019 and 1954 hold HALF of the hight temp records for the month of September with 15 combined records. Those same two years hold 8 of the records for October with four apiece. So, for the months of September and October, those two years hold 23 records out of 61 days.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Interesting stuff. Now the years for the winters are the years for those winters' Decembers, right? For example, 1995 is short 95-96?
  14. Carvers Gap
    @raindancewx, pretty remarkable post in the MA forum. I am going to tag you in our winter spec thread even though your post is about the upcoming early Dec pattern. Our pattern thread is focused on the storm as it should be. But wanted to look past that a bit. How did the rest of that 58-59 winter finish up? For the rest of you all, REMARKABLE similarities to what is being modeled for December. Just trying to get your opinion on what happens next....
  15. Carvers Gap
    They are gone on top of Bays for sure. One on my street is still pale green...as in my front yard. The try and I are at odds. LOL. I hope the wind tonight strips that sucker bare.
  16. Carvers Gap
    @nrgjeff, what are your thoughts on the Euro Weeklies?
  17. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS is similar to 12z....the overall expanse is the storms is much bigger.
  18. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS is an inland runner with the main cluster running from just west of Columbis, SC, to DC. There are solutions on either side of that FWIW, but looks every so slightly east of 0z and 6z off the top of my head.
  19. Carvers Gap
    That is an inland runner right there. Looks like very little energy transfer.
  20. Carvers Gap
    And another storm comes right after it which gets suppressed by the massive NW flow - the first storm almost acts like a southerly displaced 50/50 low. That could verbatim get places in our southern reaches some frozen stuff.
  21. Carvers Gap
    ...And if that is even the slightest over amped, that is coming east some. What a storm on that run.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Man, the 12z Euro...that is a whopper of a storm. I would be licking my chops in middle TN. Wow. Foot totals on the Plateau. Two foot totals in central KY.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Ditto. Yeah, take a look at the Canadian at 500 after d5. PNA on steroids. If that verifies, going to be tough for anything to cut after the first storm, and it may not either.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Just did my leaves last night. 25mph winds on tap later today and tonight....crap.
  25. Carvers Gap
    6z GEFS snow mean (which has admittedly been a metric which has been absolutely worthless during the past two winters) has 4-6" of snow over E TN. The EPS is 2-3" with more in the mountains...and an elevation dependent look. I like to use NE TN as a benchmark, because it is easier to see if the storms are elevation dependent - and it is close. One interesting note in the LR, both the GEPS and GEFS have moved to a cleaner ridge out West which is more of a -EPO(GEPS is both PNA and EPO ridge)...but the interesting thing is they pull the trough back. The EPS pretty much holds the upcoming pattern in place. My thinking(and it could be wrong) is that if we can get the EPO ridge after the PNA(due to retrograding), that we might be able to squeeze another week or two out of the pattern. If the GFS and GEPS verity later in the run, that is a very stable look and not as wonky as the upcoming first two weeks of winter. JB has noted that he thinks the pattern flips to an eastern ridge prior to Christmas due to the MJO...well, plus that fits their seasonal forecast. The Weeklies on Monday did sort of fit that idea, but they IMHO really didn't lock that eastern ridge into place. Right now, I think LR forecasting is not for the faint of heart as this early Dec pattern resembles more of an El Nino(trough in the SE) than a Nina. I do think because we are getting this early chance, that opens the door for 1-2 more windows later this winter...but who knows.
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