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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    TRI has set a record low this morning. The old record was 19 which was set in 1986. Currently, TRI sits at 15. Tomorrow's record is 16 which was also set during 1986. TRI has a forecast low of 17 for tomorrow.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Takeaways from modeling this afternoon...-NAO is found on the three major global ensembles beginning mid-week next week. The JMA has moved to a cooler January and February...but it was wrong all winter last year. So buyer beware. If that -NAO sets up shop, it becomes the driver IMHO. Lots of good doors in terms of winter could open, especially with winter storms. Some modeling is depicting some weak interaction between the PNA and the potential Greenland block. Still need to be wary. The solutions yesterday, though not desirable, are a possibility. However, I like seeing the Greenland block showing up consistently across the board. While modeling is tremendously sketchy outside of three weeks...many operational models began hinting at the big highs that produced todays snows...weeks ago. So, there are some good signs out there in model land that might hint at an enduring block. HM has been talking about the Aleutian low really making its presence felt - if I am speaking HM language correctly. He is now alluding to December - early Feb as being cold. Shocker - that is mid-winter...but that is not as easy of a prediction as one might think given last year's outcome. Lastly, the MA forum was talking about how the winter Nino temp timeline might be moved up a bit. I guess that means that the moderation of temps over the next couple of weeks would be the December thaw often seen during Ninos, and that January would be cold versus actually trending colder as the month progresses. Hopefully, I gave credit where credit is due. Man, it feels like the middle of winter out there today. One of my kids said, "It's going to be 65 degrees colder this afternoon than it was to begin October." I cannot imagine where they would hear such comparisons. Now, if they start discussing 1954... Seriously though, these fall athletes have endured record high temps and today...snow. It has been a really interesting fall in hindsight.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Found this on twitter since @griteater liked it. Few places in the world are as pretty as our mountains when it snows. I have seen snow on peaks that rise to 13K', but our mountains have something extra. When the ceiling drops and the snow starts falling...just a rare kind beauty not found in many places. I know the neighborhood in the Tweet below. Would like to own a home their one day! Not to far from...Carvers Gap.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Just glancing through the most recent ensembles....the 6z GEFS has backed-off the mega ridge and has joined the -NAO club that doesn't connect to an eastern ridge. A -NAO is not a slam dunk for cold BTW. The reason a lot of us like it is because the storm track gets suppressed and confluence is more favorable for our forum area. Not sure it will supply enough cold for us to benefit from the potential block...but an interesting look. IMHO, still a lot of uncertainty for the last week of November. Some good signs...but not ready to pull the trigger yet on stating that I believe the elusive -NAO is going to pay a visit later this month and into early December. Looks like the coldest air is setting up in Asia. Need a mechanism to get it to this side of the planet.
  5. Carvers Gap
    @1234snow, what did you finally end up with? Looks like you were also under that band?
  6. Carvers Gap
    Jed, we must be under that same band on the back side. Just looking at the radar...looks like that band set up from Morristown into western Sullivan Co. I have about 1" of snow in my front yard with nothing under the big tree. On raised surfaces in the back yard...1.25" roughly. IMBY...some places have two inches. So, sitting at 1.5" roughly with lots of variation and still working through this last band of snow.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Looks I have about 1" of snow on the grass and raised surfaces - very little under trees that still have their leaves. Not bad at all as someone noted...for November 12th. Viva 1954! LOL. Seriously though...eerie.
  8. Carvers Gap
    It has a chance to be sort of a Modoki...the problem is the eastern equatorial Pacific has had some Nina-ish SSTs recently or at least have trended that way. I haven't looked this week. I do think that led to our dry and hot September and early October. Also, Typhoon Tip in the NE subform I think has talked about that the Pacific is anomalously warm over most of the basin...that is actually causing the temperature gradient to be weak. That means we really want El Nino patterns to have a sharp gradient to cool water which surround them. Right now, there is just little gradient. Due to this, the standard analog packages are not working very well.
  9. Carvers Gap
    ........NE TN has been placed in the WWA area........ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 1032 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY... .A strong cold front will push through overnight, with rain showers mixing with and changing to snow before tapering off and ending Tuesday. Some light snow accumulations can be expected, especially across the higher elevations. TNZ015>017-042-044-046-121200- /O.EXA.KMRX.WW.Y.0006.191112T0900Z-191112T1700Z/ Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Northwest Greene-Washington- Northwest Carter- Including the cities of Evanston, Sneedville, Treadway, Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam, Greeneville, Johnson City, and Elizabethton 1032 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches. * WHERE...Portions of northeast Tennessee. * WHEN...From 4 AM to noon EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$
  10. Carvers Gap
    MJO is tricky right now because the phases that correspond to cold during fall are not the same as the ones that do so during winter. Right now, we are just about two and a half weeks from met winter beginning. So, it kind of has one foot in and one foot out in terms of...Do we use the fall phase correlations or the winter? Seems to me that outside of the GEFS, the western ridge is still a consistent ridge on LR modeling. Probably has been more a PNA ridge thane EPO so far IMHO. Either will work, though they do change precip amounts here. Also, don't want those ridges so tall that a trough tucks into the NW under it. A good quote from a poster a few years back...we know we are in trouble if we are having to watch MJO phases. Now, the MJO carries a ton of weight in my book. What the poster was basically saying is that a good pattern will often override the MJO influence. Right now the pattern is pretty good...and I haven't looked an MJO phase in about a week. LOL.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Also, looks like the QBO for October finished at 7.27 which is down from 8.25. So the QBO is still trending down. We want to see a sharper drop I think. Would not be surprised to see it negative by January. When glancing at previous downward trajectories, it seems like it will hover between 5-10 and then just drop(on its descending part of the cycle).
  12. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I agree. Would be super surprised to see that hold in place for very long during winter. Although it seems like during a recent winter the WAR retrograded into eastern NA and did something similar for a few weeks and actually triggered an SSW. Yep, that occurred during one or both of the last two SSWs. So for the ah-ha moment of the evening, that look actually has proceeded the last two strat warming events - I think...definitely one. Your comment actually jogged my memory on that. It is indeed rare...but now I remember where I have seen it before. So, it will be interesting to see if an early winter SSW occurs. Maybe that is an example of a tropospheric planetary wave that potentially could transport a ton of warm air into the high latitudes. That could potentially displace the PV. At one time, I had made a mental note to remember that look....it is probably buried in one of the threads where we talked about SSWs. Below is the eastern NA ridge connecting to the -NAO. The EPS does not have this...trough is in the East. Anyway, I am not using a 384 hour map for any other purpose than to show what I was talking about. Only 64 more GFS runs before we reach that time frame! Anyway, that look is super similar to the WAR that hooked up with the -NAO that preceded one or both of the last strat warming events. Interesting.
  13. Carvers Gap
    LOL. The Weeklies depict almost exactly what John mentioned in terms of temps. No idea what its snow mean for that time frame was. 1954 lives on... 1954 began almost as a joke, because here at TRI we couldn't break those max temp records during September, but crushing all other years. For September, 1954 holds eight record highs. 2019 holds eight record highs. For October, 1954 holds four records highs. 2019 holds for record highs. And what is uncanny is that some of the warm spells came within a week of each other on the calendar. Then November turned cold during both months with snow reported in measurable amounts. The current cooler water off of SA may be acting as a bit of a weak Nina signal and that may be allowing for some mirroring of the two years. Still just sort of weird at this point. Not sure the two years are a great match in terms of SSTs...but their Septembers, Octobers, Novembers, and maybe even Decembers(???) are super similar. All of that said, sometimes things that appear to have good correlations...have no relationship whatsoever. There are actually some pretty hilarious (and false) connections that statistics bring together at times. In this case, maybe the Nina ENSO in the eastern Pacific is something to think about. Also, it seems like the weather patterns recently have been similar to the early and mid 50s analogs. So, there might be something to that. Anyway, it is now just kind of fun to see just how far we can take an "iffy" analog.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I agree. We don't want what the Euro Weeklies were cooking up though...but they have been awful in the 4-6 week range(for the past year or so...they used to have some skill before last winter). What the GEFS is showing took several weeks to dislodge in September, and only seasonal wave lengths really disrupted it. That said....it is the GEFS and it does not have support yet. It also makes sense to have some sort of moderation after the well BN temps that we have been having. And true, many great winters never really got going until January. Last year has spooked me as well along with isotherm's forecast. LOL.
  15. Carvers Gap
    That is not a pretty picture on the 12z or 18z GEFS in the d10-15 - Well above normal temps being portrayed with an eastern ridge connecting to a -NAO. When have we seen that before? September. Thankfully, the 12z EPS is not on board with that business. On a positive note, there is evidence on the EPS that a -NAO is trying to develop. If true, just throw modeling out the window right now. High latitude blocking wrecks LR models at times...just too many plates to juggle. I was feeling pretty good about December until I saw the GEFS. The Euro Weeklies(I don't even look at surface temps on it anymore because they are always warm after week 2) have a decent 500 pattern through mid-December before their predictable global torch for weeks 4-6. Weeks 2-4 looks overall seasonable with not a ton of amplification. I have recently had a slight lean towards a BN first half of December...but the GEFS has me spooked. Maybe it shouldn't, but it has been ahead of the EPS on pattern changes lately. The GEFS is a bit of an outlier...but it has led the way for about six weeks. So, it can't be discounted just yet. The GEFS is a total flip of the pattern beginning at day 10. Definitely some things in the LR that still have to be worked out and have repercussions regarding the first month of winter.
  16. Carvers Gap
    That'll help quite a bit. We used to live off Sunset just near State of Franklin several years ago while my wife was finishing up med school. We used to rack the heck up on northwest flow events over there. Lived right on top of a hill. Plus, if you just need to see snow...you can always drive to Boone and see it while they are blowing snow. LOL. JC is a great location. I miss seeing the mountains over there every day.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Pretty much the Holy Grail of high pressures for November. That is strong even during winter. The 0z Euro had a high at 9h that was 1052. The 12z that just ran has 6z at 1049. Both of those forecast readings are on the east end of Yellowstone National Park near the Beartooths. The 12z Euro does appear to slightly back off its totals over E TN. Looks like more of 1-2" of snow for E TN vs 2-4".
  18. Carvers Gap
    12z suite looks pretty good so far for E TN...especially the foothills, Plateau, SW VA, and portions of NE TN. That said, many of the models(global and short range) have upped their totals slightly. Never want the trend to be going down at this range. Not sure what is causing the system to max out over E TN, but several models depict a pretty decent precip max over the eastern valley with this. The questions is whether the cold is going to move as quickly as modeled. The big 1050+ high argues for that. However, as I stated above...the Plateau can do strange things with systems like this. It may give some good orographic lift or it may hold up the cold. Either way, still an interesting early season system on tap. I would not be surprised if some valley locations received and inch or two of snow. Seems weird to state that as climatology really frowns upon snow this early...but it can happen and that high is no joke.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Good to see you on here again. These Arctic fronts as they interact with the Plateau add a certain degree of difficulty. Often, the cold takes it time draining in from the Plateau...but sometimes it does not. The big high out West has me with one eye over my shoulder. Either way, tracking in early November is all bonus!
  20. Carvers Gap
    TRI's record low on the 13th is 19F. Right now the forecast low is around 16F. So, a chance to break the record low on Wednesday morning.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for compiling those. Just an impressively cold start to November. Unless something crazy happens, even with moderation later in the month (not a given) looks like November will likely finish BN or even well BN. @Blue Ridge, with snow predicted on Tuesday...1954 rides again!!!! Just amazing how close this fall has been to '54. I joke about it, but it is becoming a bit uncanny.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Love it...Even if it doesn't work out, a winter thread in November is always a bonus! Hey, if we can get a winter thread in April early next spring...that would give us six months of tracking! My expectations are low on this one. I just want to see some snow showers. Any accumulation is a total bonus this early, but I do like looking at snow accumulation maps though! I may have to put in The Day After Tomorrow to get me fired up!!! I like that movie, not going to lie. My other favorite weather movies are Twister, 2012(more geology), and pretty much any Christmas movie with snow in it. Christmas Vacation and Home Alone are pretty much awesome. Yeah, I am a weather geek and I just can't help it. In for later! Good luck to everyone on getting some early season snow. Have to think folks about 2,000' are sitting pretty good on this one.
  23. Carvers Gap
    TRI is a whopping -7F below normal for the first nine days of November. November's start is nearly a polar(like that?LOL) opposite of October's. I mean I still leave the house without a coat, because I still assume it is gonna be 90+ during the day. Pretty sure this is the earliest that I have not had to mow...but just mow it now to knock down the tops of a few fast growing patches of grass and to pick up leaves. The heat pretty much wiped out my yard...then the cold went off the top rope and ended its meager hopes of returning to form.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Great read, griteater. Enjoyed it. Thank you for taking the time to write that up.
  25. Carvers Gap
    12z RGEM is a good thump and still snowing. So is the GFS and the NAM is not bad either at 12z.
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