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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    The 12z NAM has the storm now. Not nearly as wrapped-up as one would expect from a model which has a bias of over amplifying systems. All usual caveats for the NAM at range do apply.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Splitting hairs at this point, but I am noticing a cluster of lows build south and west of 0z in Georgia and Alabama (area within the blue circle). There are fewer far to the west around the TN northern border and into western Ohio and eastern Indiana. Tells me the Euro is consolidating on a track that is a bit more east. How far? No idea. "Might" mean the model has more room to slow down and trend SE. That slower bundle would allow for the storm to turn north much further eastward. 6z is on the left and 0z on the right. Something to keep an eye on....
  3. Carvers Gap
    Kind of a weird deal...but this is becoming a finesse solution for snow. The stronger it is, the more it cuts west of the Apps but also pulls in cold air and has wrap around. The weaker it is, the more it pulls east of the Apps but is more of a rainer. Still not convinced this doesn't run through NC as a pretty strong storm. When the solutions run up the spine of the Apps, the storm weakens. The SLP needs to be either west or east of the Apps in order to get a strong solution.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Great comparison graphic. Because it is slower, I can't be sure that it will not gain a bunch of latitude, but yeah, definitely can see that less energy is making it into west TN. I think the phases on this is crucial. Seems like each run of each model is slightly different. This is one of those systems that has a chance to go east of the Apps at the last minute...but tough to know. Would not be surprised to see the SE jog continue a bit today...only to see a NW jog at the last minute. I suspect the block over the top is being felt a bit more. But really, that is some educated guesswork on my part. But hey, at least we are tracking a storm on Thanksgiving!
  5. Carvers Gap
    SLP on the off-run(which only goes out so far as Holston noted above) is weaker and slower. It is about 3 mb weaker. Looks like that would run slightly south and east of the 0z run if it could go that far. Likely means the Euro corrected a bit by not overamping the slp too early. The precip shield in Illinois has sagged south. Definitely less energy heading into west TN than compared to 0z.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Can see the same slip eastward of the precip axis in the Midwest with the 6z GEFS compared to its 0z run. Looks like the NW jog on those models has halted. Are they right? No idea.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Decent jump SE of the axis of precip now on the 6z ICON when compared to 0z.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The 0z GEPS is so far too the East that it that the main precip shield almost whiffs on middle TN.
  9. Carvers Gap
    The 6z off-run of the Euro and EPS will run here in a bit...will be interesting to see the trend. The GEFS and GEPS are now east of the Apps with their tracks. The UKMET and Euro have a decent bias of being overly wrapped-up as we are still roughly 4 days from the event IMBY. Good day to watch some trends.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The 0z GEPS is also well east of both models. Seems to me like the 6z GFS might actually be a nice compromise....Dangerous ground to stand on going against the Euro, but it well west of the other global ensembles.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GEFS is a rain changing to snow for parts of E TN, SE KY, and SW VA. That is a big move. Let's see if other modeling follows suit.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Check that...the western edge of central NC. Probably 100-150 jog eastward.
  13. Carvers Gap
    So, overnight runs weren't great...but then arrives the 6z GEFS. The slp members are east of the 0z run. Thus, the mean has increased compared to 0z. The EPS is basically has the system run the spine of the Apps. The 6z GEFS is east of that track in western North Carolina.
  14. Carvers Gap
    At 306 in fantasy land, that is just a massive PNA ridge, goes well north of Alaska.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Well, the 0z Canadian and GFS just go hog wild with all kinds of slp solutions for storm 2.
  16. Carvers Gap
    IMHO, the GFS is having issues with steering currents under that big block. Have to think the next run is going to be fairly different.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Storm is stuck in Ohio. Entered at 123 and still there at 153. That stall is reducing separation. Might force that next system way down there.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Man, just crazy to see a storm sit there at that strength and spin nearly in the same place for a couple of time intervals.
  19. Carvers Gap
    And with a storm potentially that big, I bet things are not worked out quite yet. Going to depend on the all important timing of the phase.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Going to leave some room potentially for the next storm to come north - if there is more separation due to quicker speeds of storm one(assuming storm two has not also sped up.).
  21. Carvers Gap
    That storm is sub 990. Whew.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Gonna be a decent upslope event for NW facing slopes if this were to verify.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Is also a bit faster with a sharper gradient. Snow showers in place by 114 over middle TN.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Stronger slp out to 108 which pulls everything just a bit west compared to 18z.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Out to 90. Does not look like a consolidated slp coming out of the GOM. Looks like energy transfer will happen at some point.
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