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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Little disorganized by MUCH different solution than 0z. Looks like a mix of slider and Miller A....out to 180 and that looks like a Miller A/inland runner. Perfect track and cold is lacking.
  2. Carvers Gap
    SLP sitting over eastern Louisiana at 162.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Second storm on the 12z Euro is not going be that westerly cutter.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Was interesting to see the 12z GFS shift to a Miller A for the second system.
  5. Carvers Gap
    If there is one potential bias I am noticing(it seems across the board on all operational modeling), is the tendency to over amplify in the d5-7 time frame - even stalling systems for long periods of time.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Long Range Update(at least from my perspective, and as Jeff would say, certainly open for debate!).... In the LR, this morning's 0z EPS has moved a trough into EPO/PNA region after d12. Trough is still in the East as well, but looks like a retrograde to a ridge is underway. Interesting feature is a -NAO in conjunction with the western trough. That would actually work, and would create nation wide cold driven by cold invasion the West and spreading eastward. The problem is that -NAOs on modeling have rarely verified, and even if they do, just for a fraction of the time and strength originally modeled during recent winters. Euro Weeklies update (from last evening) has a similar solution though this morning's 0z run is certainly more aggressive and quicker in establishing the western trough. Interesting thing to watch will be the weak AN heights over the Davis Straits which are persistent after Dec 20 and after the -NAO from Dec 10-20. Looks like there will be temporary intrusions of cold after the 20th with the base pattern for winter beginning to take hold which is a trough in the Northwest. Will it happen? Not sure. The Euro Weeklies sure missed(like totally whiffed) on this upcoming trough amplification as recently as two weeks ago. Also of note, the last 4 runs have certainly evolved into a "less hostile" look over the East after Dec 20th.. Could it be that we finally get a -NAO during winter which will mute the upcoming warm phases of the MJO? Don't bet on it...but given how winter has started with a big surprise, I wouldn't bet against it either. On the subject of the Euro, today's run of the MJO on the NCEP site loops the MJO in the null phase and certainly looks poised to head into the warm phase tour. I would say right now that given the complete whiff by the Weeklies on the early December pattern, take it with a bit of a grain of salt. Also important to remember that the Weeklies do have a tendency to settle down and become a bit more accurate(as accurate as a 4-7 week model can be) as the winter season settles in. Of note the GEFS Extended Ensemble locks in an eastern ridge beginning around Dec. 19th and never looks back through the end of its run which is Dec 31. So, the Weeklies do have some support though LR modeling (of the variety past 3 weeks) do have a warm bias at times. Of note the 6z GEFS nor the 0z GEPS most recent runs do not have the 0z EPS look. Both still have an eastern trough. Have to think the GEFS will flip soon as its MJO from yesterday took the warm tour. An important note is that the MJO is a bit weaker than last year west of the dateline. I definitely give some increased cred to the Canadian ensemble as it has just schooled the GEFS and EPS on the upcoming pattern. No idea what the global verification scores will look like, but it appears to have nailed the short term upcoming pattern over the SE prior to other models. The GEPS has been decent of late and will hold more weight than normal for now in my book. Lastly, when I see a big mid-Atlantic ridge which sort of retrogrades into a WAR(western Atlantic ridge), makes me think that the SPV(polar vortex at 10mb) is going to get hammered. There is plenty of chatter about a SSW on Twitter for sure, and has been for a few days. However, the aforementioned ridges are also a great hint other than the Twittersphere. That might be why a -NAO is beginning to show up as the SPV is getting jostled around. I do think we need to be wary as the last two winters have featured lots of failed or less than advantageous PV splits and false -NAOs(after much wx model advertising). However, the start to winter for early Dec appears to feature an abrupt change in modeling (to cold) and would not surprise me to see that happen 1-2 more times for 10 day time frames. Also, important to remember that early winter is a very tough time to score IMBY. As some have noted though, that has been the trend of late - early season snows in various micro-climates (meaning not widespread) followed by meh winters. Still, the problem is that often cold is still marginal at this latitude in early December. Hopefully, we can get some snow showers in E TN with the first system this week and maybe middle and/or west TN can grab some low elevation snow as well. The 6z off run of the Euro certainly implied that. Next system is all over the place on modeling...so will have to watch that one closely.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Great write-up by MRX. Really applies to the entire forum area in many ways... https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MRX&issuedby=MRX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
  8. Carvers Gap
    In a lot of ways, these remind me of the slp bowling balls which we see during spring. Those tend to hold surprises and wonder around like a drunken sailor - terribly tough to predict. Just look at the second storm on the Euro as an example.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Trends I noticed...Euro operational looks the same. GFS and GEM are still east of the Apps and not moving much either (though their ensembles moved west...but still east of the Apps). I think the storm is getting shredded by the solutions which go directly up the Apps - similar to a hurricane hitting Cuba or the DR. The phase on this is really tricky. I think a phased system is likely. Do I think modeling has that phase molded correctly yet? Nope, but they are getting a bit better. It does look like accumulations are moving north and east with each run. If you are E TN, you want to see the storm go east of the Apps and then spin up(seems like this storm may not enough separation between us and the storm track at this juncture). If you live in middle or west TN, the entire consolidated storm needs to be strong and west of the Apps. Right now, the storm is splitting the difference between the two and getting washed out. As for overall trends, I tend to lean towards a track which sends some energy up west of the Apps but the primary going just east over Asheville. That is not wish casting by me, because that doesn't get the job done IMBY. We will see what happens...I just don't think the models have the phase down quite yet.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The 12z NAM has the storm now. Not nearly as wrapped-up as one would expect from a model which has a bias of over amplifying systems. All usual caveats for the NAM at range do apply.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Splitting hairs at this point, but I am noticing a cluster of lows build south and west of 0z in Georgia and Alabama (area within the blue circle). There are fewer far to the west around the TN northern border and into western Ohio and eastern Indiana. Tells me the Euro is consolidating on a track that is a bit more east. How far? No idea. "Might" mean the model has more room to slow down and trend SE. That slower bundle would allow for the storm to turn north much further eastward. 6z is on the left and 0z on the right. Something to keep an eye on....
  12. Carvers Gap
    Kind of a weird deal...but this is becoming a finesse solution for snow. The stronger it is, the more it cuts west of the Apps but also pulls in cold air and has wrap around. The weaker it is, the more it pulls east of the Apps but is more of a rainer. Still not convinced this doesn't run through NC as a pretty strong storm. When the solutions run up the spine of the Apps, the storm weakens. The SLP needs to be either west or east of the Apps in order to get a strong solution.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Great comparison graphic. Because it is slower, I can't be sure that it will not gain a bunch of latitude, but yeah, definitely can see that less energy is making it into west TN. I think the phases on this is crucial. Seems like each run of each model is slightly different. This is one of those systems that has a chance to go east of the Apps at the last minute...but tough to know. Would not be surprised to see the SE jog continue a bit today...only to see a NW jog at the last minute. I suspect the block over the top is being felt a bit more. But really, that is some educated guesswork on my part. But hey, at least we are tracking a storm on Thanksgiving!
  14. Carvers Gap
    SLP on the off-run(which only goes out so far as Holston noted above) is weaker and slower. It is about 3 mb weaker. Looks like that would run slightly south and east of the 0z run if it could go that far. Likely means the Euro corrected a bit by not overamping the slp too early. The precip shield in Illinois has sagged south. Definitely less energy heading into west TN than compared to 0z.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Can see the same slip eastward of the precip axis in the Midwest with the 6z GEFS compared to its 0z run. Looks like the NW jog on those models has halted. Are they right? No idea.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Decent jump SE of the axis of precip now on the 6z ICON when compared to 0z.
  17. Carvers Gap
    The 0z GEPS is so far too the East that it that the main precip shield almost whiffs on middle TN.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The 6z off-run of the Euro and EPS will run here in a bit...will be interesting to see the trend. The GEFS and GEPS are now east of the Apps with their tracks. The UKMET and Euro have a decent bias of being overly wrapped-up as we are still roughly 4 days from the event IMBY. Good day to watch some trends.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The 0z GEPS is also well east of both models. Seems to me like the 6z GFS might actually be a nice compromise....Dangerous ground to stand on going against the Euro, but it well west of the other global ensembles.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 6z GEFS is a rain changing to snow for parts of E TN, SE KY, and SW VA. That is a big move. Let's see if other modeling follows suit.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Check that...the western edge of central NC. Probably 100-150 jog eastward.
  22. Carvers Gap
    So, overnight runs weren't great...but then arrives the 6z GEFS. The slp members are east of the 0z run. Thus, the mean has increased compared to 0z. The EPS is basically has the system run the spine of the Apps. The 6z GEFS is east of that track in western North Carolina.
  23. Carvers Gap
    At 306 in fantasy land, that is just a massive PNA ridge, goes well north of Alaska.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Well, the 0z Canadian and GFS just go hog wild with all kinds of slp solutions for storm 2.
  25. Carvers Gap
    IMHO, the GFS is having issues with steering currents under that big block. Have to think the next run is going to be fairly different.
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