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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Light snow showers here. Doubt we get any accumulation in Kingsport, but officially logging the first frozen precip of the season for MBY. Great to see everyone's reports. Lots of great reports in this thread...been fun to read.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for the update and welcome back! Hope you had some great time off. We are busy switching our running gear from summer to winter. LOL.
  3. Carvers Gap
    12z GEPS follows suit with the GEFS d10+....still a true threat the trough could retrograde back West. But two seasonable to cold model runs for much of the lower 48 east of the Rockies. Been a while since I have seen a full latitude trough verify during winter...so I am always suspect. That said, better than staring at what we did during much of this month(November).
  4. Carvers Gap
    Thanks, I thought I remembered that the EPO "could" mute the MJO. Definitely both scenarios(epic or spin) in play at this range IMO...Have seen some LR modeling that retrogrades the ridge a bit too far and the SER pops. Past 24 hours worth of model runs have looked better.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Awesome! And great to hear from you. Like Powell, always enjoy your updates and input!!!
  6. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS d11-16 (5) day mean at 500 so TIFWIW. I like the -EPO which is showing up. We are going to need something to counter the upcoming MJO convection in warm phase regions(hoping it is low amplitude and fast if it goes into warm phases). Definitely a possibility this pattern(shown below) retrogrades/trends into the West as the EPO slips a bit westward off the coast of western NA. Scandinavian Ridge connecting ever so slightly with the EPO. That should open up the gates for cold air to head into the Lower 48. Huge caveat...this is basically what was shown during November that headed into the West - occurred twice. The MJO is a thorn here, but there are times when we do overcome the unfavorable MJO phases with a pattern similar to this if memory serves me correctly. Maybe the winter of 14-15? One of those went through the warm tour and it stayed cold. Anyway, just worth a look. Everyone knows the rules about taking LR ensemble stuff as gospel.
  7. Carvers Gap
    On a quieter(less newsworthy note), the 12z GEFS(post 300h) is not looking warm.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Wonder how @TellicoWx is fairing with this?
  9. Carvers Gap
    Looking out in time a bit. I really like the GFS extended that has been added to WxBell's model suite. Basically it show the pattern degrade around mid-month, relax for about ten days, and then return....huge grain of salt at that range please. Was looking at teleconnections this morning, the general gist is that the AO and NAO are going to be slightly negative with the EPO going slightly negative - all of that varies slightly depending on model and run. Going to be interesting as the MJO has trended towards a warm(weak) phase look. Is the MJO going to camp out in those phases or move quickly around and/or will weak(but favorable teleconnections) balance out any MJO mischief. Makes me think that the base pattern will still have a Nina look, but that cold may well move eastward from time to time, and thus, give us some chances. Lots of uncertainty right after Christmas as one might expect...but sort of we didn't expect uncertainty as I pretty much felt like January was going to be warm - not nearly as much of a certainty as once thought.
  10. Carvers Gap
    0z ARW and NAM have made a pretty decent trend to the SE. That opens up the door for maybe an earlier change over at lower elevations - not sure but maybe. Interestingly, their storm totals over KY have really jumped which maybe means this is a bit stronger and a bit further SE. I won't say their will be some surprises, but I won't say there won't be. Bham, the 'Burg looks to be sitting nice, man. You got a chance at doing really well. Looks the like the Plateau may do well and the Smokies get absolutely hammered above 4k. Trends at this stage matter. Good luck to everyone.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Not a 'Burg expert, but wild guess would be 1-3". Will depend on how much moisture is available for upslope.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the eastward jog has stopped with the 0z suit as the NAM and GFS have either similar tracks or are slightly west and/or stronger. Time to start watching the one behind this for MBY. Maybe our folks at elevation and middle TN can score some accumulating snow.
  13. Carvers Gap
    32k 0z NAM is further south than 18z through 11 hours. Will update in this post....just hit refresh in a minute. Through 18 slp over the panhandle of Florida. Through 27, south and east of 18z. Switched back to 3k NAM as it is populating more quickly: Through 38, very similar but a hair quicker and maybe a bit more robust to the NW in Indiana. @44 down to 990mb...quite a bit stronger than 18z. Wrap around moving in.
  14. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, I am dropping my SREF plume in the main thread. LOL. 1" mean for reference after I have to delete this image later for space.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Will try to save this. This is the 90hr GFS 500 map. When we look back on this thread, this is the set-up. Looks like the crazy type of block(which has been forecast and not come to fruition during past winters), might actually verify.
  16. Carvers Gap
    18z GEFS low locations. Still quite a bit of spread even at this range. Again, I think this goes up east of the Apps with some energy going up west as it usually does during events from the GOM(aka the warm nose). Great conversation by John above about elevation. I am at 1,300'. However, about a mile behind my house there is a ridge which reaches 2,400'. You can actually see the snow line for most elevation dependent storms.
  17. Carvers Gap
    That is a massive vort coming out of the Plains at 132...going to have to be reckoned with.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Good stuff. Yeah, 18zGFS is west a hair though the slp is a bit strung out between two pieces of energy. I am just now resigned to following the dry slot to see if the system is moving east or west. The precip shield is a hair west in west TN. Definitely worth trying to see the 0z runs. Just let me see some snow in early Dec, and I am ready to roll. LR ensembles still look good through mid December. Am watching to see what happens on the GFS after 120 on this run...
  19. Carvers Gap
    There is no shame in hoping for a solution that hammers your local...same goes for everyone else. LOL. If we had that run in January, all of the northwest quadrant would be snow.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Definitely jog SE over the past couple of days and with this past run...but can it get east of the mountains? Just seems to me like a track between Asheville and Charlotte makes the most sense with maybe a some energy running up the eastern valley(aka the warm nose). Pretty crazy to see that type of move this late in the game. Think it is a testament to how tough this phase is to model. NAM is definitely northwest of its previous run as you all have noted. The storm right after this also has my attention. Looks like it will be further east with enough separation and maybe storm 1 providing a bit of a block to slow it down so it can phase. Really like the energy coming across the TN Valley feeding into that coastal. Chance for a really big storm for eastern sections IF it were to phase earlier.
  21. Carvers Gap
    So is the NAM the furtherest West solution now? Going to be a good upslope event. MRX has updated their afternoon disco and has a prelim snow map. Elevation driven event for their forecast.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Second storm on the 12z GFS just a monster with 957mb off Bar Harbor. (saw the mention in the MA thread and thought...no way....well, way)
  23. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS shows the shift eastward. There is a cluster of lows over central(east side of central) NC that wasn't on any of the three previous runs. The 12z EPS is south and east of previous runs. So, looks like the trend is just that(south and east) for the 12z suite. Does that continue? Maybe. I think at some point things shift back NW after the eastward jog stops. Will be interesting to see if the Euro does indeed end-up being too far to the west during the past few days.
  24. Carvers Gap
    That 12z run of the Euro...just want it to nudge just a bit more east of the Apps where it can consolidate (if you live in the E TN valley....stay where it is if in middle TN). The Apps disrupted the system quite a bit with that shift. There are times it shifts roughly 200 miles east. Problem is the slp gets disorganized so sometimes a shift is just a result of about three different low locations.
  25. Carvers Gap
    We might really not want that trend to continue at that increment...that is how much it moved.
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