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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    12z GEM takes a fairly organized SLP from the panhandle. Snow is middle TN at 102. Even though that has marginal cold, that track will work - especially if that system is that organized. Trending towards something that needs to be watched closely.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Carvers Gap...different world at that elevation. Sound of the wind makes it even more awesome.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Interestingly, both the GFS and ICOn both wrap bring some light snow showers after that system departs.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Basically seeing the 12z ICON and 12z GFS develop a low on the front and bring a system NNE from the Panhandle of Florida. Has the potential to be a really big interior NE snowstorm(northeast of here), but will be interesting if someone can get enough marginal, cold air to wrap into the storm to get some snow early in its development.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Sure enough, by 102 the GFS has decent snow in SE KY and SW VA - think that is Boone's local. Would not surprise me to see that solution become a bit more robust in terms of scope.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Just watching the 12z GFS out to 90, very similar set-up to the UKMET from this AM.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Beautiful photo. Man, Roan Mountain is just money. Great northwest facing slopes that just funnel air right up those high-elevation, mountain valleys. We have been there at the state park sledding during a northwest even, wind just howls up those valleys like a giant snow maker at Sugar.
  8. Carvers Gap
    As a general rule and we discuss this often...northwest flow events usually are usually poor from I-81 to the northwest in TRI. Kingsport had a dusting for this event which was more than I expected. Get east of 81, and Bristol did well as evidenced by KV's daughter. Have seen reports that Unicoi had 3" of snow per a tweet from a WJHL reporter. That said, as Blue Ridge noted, the big pulse of energy yesterday was southwest of Rogersville. Morristown down to Knoxville were under an excellent feed. The only time my area really does well with northwest flow stuff is when the fetch is really consistent and the temps are already cold. Lots of downscoping in Kingsport with these events. We often do well if the energy is northern stream only and cold is in place. Kingsport rarely does well with northwest flow if cold is chasing rain. System overall was just too far west for a good portion of TRI. With the low going nearly over our area, just don't get the rush of cold air that folks maybe 25-30 miles to our east did - from a longitude perspective, TRI is quite a bit eastward, especially in relation to this storm. . That said, we do REALLY well in Kingsport with SLPs to our south and east as Kingsport catches the upslope. JC has bigger issues with SE lows as those events create wicked downsloping in regards to temps and precip. I don't complain with these types of events(like yesterday and overnight), because we get our share when often times folks to our southwest don't. More times than not, TRI can score with both the Atlantic and Northwest energy. Latitude and our proximity to the Atlantic give us a ton of advantage...but downscoping is a pain as it can occur from three different directions (SW VA and SE KY often cap our precip amounts here). Overall, I thought modeling did really well with this event. The RGEM seems to handle northwest flow events really well, but the NAM did well as well. For those of us who have been here for a long time and helped get this sub-forum started, alway awesome to see people get excited about the weather, to see the great conversations, to see the reports from different locations, and to see the growth of this weather community. I kind of get a kick out that during a big storm. Great collection of folks.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Don't sleep on the 0z GEM for this weekend....was close to a decent storm for the eastern valley. Euro was just an open wave that amounted to nothing. 6z GFS was close. More of an outside shot, but the Canadian gets a bit more weight than usual as it did decently with this last system. I mean the 0z GFS as @TellicoWx mentioned, was decent for middle TN. Last year, we kind of didn't have enough cold with the HB block. This year, we have barely enough, but as last night shows...the cold doesn't have to be overwhelming to get snow. Right now, only the Euro(and that is an important piece) is without a snow solution for someone in the TN Valley forum area. In the LR, definitely a pattern breakdown on the 0z GEPS and 6z GEFS at 500. The 0z EPS is pretty solid. Basically modeling is calling for that really deep trough mid-month to lift into Alaska. Plenty of option on the table which also include and EPO in that area. Right now, I would lean towards that trough lifting out for the last third of the month, but am not confident in that at all. I do think there is potential for cold/snow to return in January(if it indeed leaves). The Cansips this AM has flipped to a cold SE for DEC. It pulls the cold back in January, but based on its 500 look...seems like their is room for cold to move out of the Rockies into the SE...
  10. Carvers Gap
    Light snow showers here. Doubt we get any accumulation in Kingsport, but officially logging the first frozen precip of the season for MBY. Great to see everyone's reports. Lots of great reports in this thread...been fun to read.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Thanks for the update and welcome back! Hope you had some great time off. We are busy switching our running gear from summer to winter. LOL.
  12. Carvers Gap
    12z GEPS follows suit with the GEFS d10+....still a true threat the trough could retrograde back West. But two seasonable to cold model runs for much of the lower 48 east of the Rockies. Been a while since I have seen a full latitude trough verify during winter...so I am always suspect. That said, better than staring at what we did during much of this month(November).
  13. Carvers Gap
    Thanks, I thought I remembered that the EPO "could" mute the MJO. Definitely both scenarios(epic or spin) in play at this range IMO...Have seen some LR modeling that retrogrades the ridge a bit too far and the SER pops. Past 24 hours worth of model runs have looked better.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Awesome! And great to hear from you. Like Powell, always enjoy your updates and input!!!
  15. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS d11-16 (5) day mean at 500 so TIFWIW. I like the -EPO which is showing up. We are going to need something to counter the upcoming MJO convection in warm phase regions(hoping it is low amplitude and fast if it goes into warm phases). Definitely a possibility this pattern(shown below) retrogrades/trends into the West as the EPO slips a bit westward off the coast of western NA. Scandinavian Ridge connecting ever so slightly with the EPO. That should open up the gates for cold air to head into the Lower 48. Huge caveat...this is basically what was shown during November that headed into the West - occurred twice. The MJO is a thorn here, but there are times when we do overcome the unfavorable MJO phases with a pattern similar to this if memory serves me correctly. Maybe the winter of 14-15? One of those went through the warm tour and it stayed cold. Anyway, just worth a look. Everyone knows the rules about taking LR ensemble stuff as gospel.
  16. Carvers Gap
    On a quieter(less newsworthy note), the 12z GEFS(post 300h) is not looking warm.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Wonder how @TellicoWx is fairing with this?
  18. Carvers Gap
    Looking out in time a bit. I really like the GFS extended that has been added to WxBell's model suite. Basically it show the pattern degrade around mid-month, relax for about ten days, and then return....huge grain of salt at that range please. Was looking at teleconnections this morning, the general gist is that the AO and NAO are going to be slightly negative with the EPO going slightly negative - all of that varies slightly depending on model and run. Going to be interesting as the MJO has trended towards a warm(weak) phase look. Is the MJO going to camp out in those phases or move quickly around and/or will weak(but favorable teleconnections) balance out any MJO mischief. Makes me think that the base pattern will still have a Nina look, but that cold may well move eastward from time to time, and thus, give us some chances. Lots of uncertainty right after Christmas as one might expect...but sort of we didn't expect uncertainty as I pretty much felt like January was going to be warm - not nearly as much of a certainty as once thought.
  19. Carvers Gap
    0z ARW and NAM have made a pretty decent trend to the SE. That opens up the door for maybe an earlier change over at lower elevations - not sure but maybe. Interestingly, their storm totals over KY have really jumped which maybe means this is a bit stronger and a bit further SE. I won't say their will be some surprises, but I won't say there won't be. Bham, the 'Burg looks to be sitting nice, man. You got a chance at doing really well. Looks the like the Plateau may do well and the Smokies get absolutely hammered above 4k. Trends at this stage matter. Good luck to everyone.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Not a 'Burg expert, but wild guess would be 1-3". Will depend on how much moisture is available for upslope.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the eastward jog has stopped with the 0z suit as the NAM and GFS have either similar tracks or are slightly west and/or stronger. Time to start watching the one behind this for MBY. Maybe our folks at elevation and middle TN can score some accumulating snow.
  22. Carvers Gap
    32k 0z NAM is further south than 18z through 11 hours. Will update in this post....just hit refresh in a minute. Through 18 slp over the panhandle of Florida. Through 27, south and east of 18z. Switched back to 3k NAM as it is populating more quickly: Through 38, very similar but a hair quicker and maybe a bit more robust to the NW in Indiana. @44 down to 990mb...quite a bit stronger than 18z. Wrap around moving in.
  23. Carvers Gap
    @Holston_River_Rambler, I am dropping my SREF plume in the main thread. LOL. 1" mean for reference after I have to delete this image later for space.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Will try to save this. This is the 90hr GFS 500 map. When we look back on this thread, this is the set-up. Looks like the crazy type of block(which has been forecast and not come to fruition during past winters), might actually verify.
  25. Carvers Gap
    18z GEFS low locations. Still quite a bit of spread even at this range. Again, I think this goes up east of the Apps with some energy going up west as it usually does during events from the GOM(aka the warm nose). Great conversation by John above about elevation. I am at 1,300'. However, about a mile behind my house there is a ridge which reaches 2,400'. You can actually see the snow line for most elevation dependent storms.
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