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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro puts TN back in the ballgame for the Monday event. Super close call up this way. Kind of has a sloppy look to it right now, but will have to keep following trends. SLP placement is pretty much perfect for TRI, but cold is very marginal as evidenced by other deterministic models having cold rain. Anyone know the time of day for that event? I haven't seen the extended GEFS today(only comes out on the pay site after supper), but I like that model. My only access to the GEFS extended has been this winter season. At 500 yesterday, it didn't look all that bad. Surface temps were lousy for sure. One would think it would verify cold if the 500 look is real. I looks at 500 maps and 850 temps as surface temps seem to be off lately. CFS almost seems too cold. Just don't cancel basketball season this year.
  2. Carvers Gap
    GFS and Euro both have Monday's system back. As Tellico noted, it is weaker but looks like a good compromise. That said, it is never out of the question that modeling could trend back to nothing or even trend stronger. Time of day would be important. LR, still a lot of uncertainty. It is less certain that it will be warm from Dec 18-30 than it was 4-5 days ago. But, it is no slam dunk for cold either. Kind of a fun time of year. Nothing huge for sure, but would not surprise me to see a really amped system at some point either. After last winter where it was just one disappointment after another and then finally went warm, "uncertainty" is not a terrible outcome in LR modeling or even short range. Gives everyone a chance to hone their skills, and maybe reel one in. Kind of like this...better fishing in a lake that has fish than one that does note(comparing this year to last year).
  3. Carvers Gap
    Have you looked at the spv/tpv at that time? Has to be something going on....to really crank that. It(-NAO) is showing up on multiple models as well, even the ensembles are having to dig for new colors.
  4. Carvers Gap
    I have seen those the past couple of years - rarely verify. However, they are often a sign of a SPV. If we can trap the TPV on this side of the planet(and I think we have a chance), might be fun.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I am with you. Throw in a -NAO, and that would be a double block with Siberia being record cold.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Somebody remind what this does to the stratosphere and wx in general. Warm, right? Either way, very cool graphic...I mean really cool.
  7. Carvers Gap
    For kicks and giggles, the NAO on the EPS control run - always a red flag(but in this case, really red).
  8. Carvers Gap
    The CFSv2 has gone bonkers at 12z. Now, admittedly, it has never seen a cold pattern that it didn't like. But that is a very cold pattern through the end of its run on the Jan 23rd. No, I would never share a foxhole with this model, but wow. Most of NA is cold by the end of that run - NA just progressively gets colder.
  9. Carvers Gap
    So, I am going to throw this out there. I think there is a crap TON of uncertainty right now in the LR with possible splits of the SPV, -NAO, etc. EPS is showing a low getting hung up in the Four Corners in the LR. Sometimes that is a hint that the trough goes out West. Sometimes that is a false look and the trough comes East(more likely than not it comes East) - but not a given. However, with the big -NAO, the MJO looking like it may go into 7(HI RES GFS reference and EMON) at some amplitude....I think we are seeing the signal for a fairly strong EC storm beginning next week and for 2-3 weeks thereafter. The GEFS is the best look with a classic winter storm set-up. Going to depend on how much of a SER can nose underneath. I have been doing this a long time and am certainly fallible on most days, but if that vortex were to slip into the Aleutians with a block over Greenland...the PNA/EPO could pop, amplify a trough, and have the ensuing energy hit the Atlantic block. That isn't rocket science for winter storms, but the potential is there. I think the reason we see modeling going with big storms and losing them is that the potential is there. However, as a friend notes, the PAC is just blasting system after system into that Atlantic block. Nearly impossible to get timing right outside of 4-5 days. Interestingly, the GEFS which has never had the storm on M-T next week does have a weak surface low in the Piedmont. Probably a good time to look at ensemble low placements. Also, I am thinking some bitterly cold air is a high percentage bet at this time for NA during the next 2-3 weeks. Would not surprise me to see it drop into the northern Rockies or Plains and slide eastward. When BN height show up during the heart of winter in Canada, that is some COLD air.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at today's MJO...some changes there. Looks like the IO is about to go really quiet if the OLR maps on the CPC are correct. Wave propagates from the MC to phases 7-8 just west of the dateline which should correlate to MJO phases 7-8. 7 is colder the further that one goes into December. That might explain some of the changes on LR maps at this point. I think right now with some bitterly cold air moving into Canada, models are going to be hopping all over the place - just wrecks havoc on pretty much all modeling.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Well, I hope the GEFS is right in the long term. The trough retrogrades across northern Canada, through Alaska, and parks itself over the Aleutains...basically reverts into the same pattern that we just left. This time it would be later December and not early December. No idea if correct, but a nice look right after Dec 20th(no, I am not gonna say IT).
  12. Carvers Gap
    These days, the ensembles don't differ as much from the operational runs like they used to, IMO anyway. I think if we take the progressive nature of the GFS and the tendency to slightly overman by the Euro...there is a window now for a storm. Guessing models are having to sift through the various pieces of energy for the pattern. It does seem like confluence (at times) is over the lower MA next week. Have you seen the block on ensembles this morning? I never really buy that look (burned too many times), but it is getting kind of hard to ignore as it is probably being felt now in the mid-range by storms. Generally speaking, that block may well force phasing(more often than normal) of systems which are timed correctly. Anyway, modeling had a really stormy pattern about a week ago and then backed off. Looks to me like it is coming back to that potential, albeit a few days later than originally modeled.
  13. Carvers Gap
    They are for sure. Tellico, (and I haven't looked at the GFS closely) does the GFS look too progressive and have confluence too far to the East? Which model handled the last system(where it snowed) the best?
  14. Carvers Gap
    BNA, I missed this post earlier in the week. Yeah, pretty interesting to see the impressive blocking over Greenland on overnight ensembles and maybe winter storm potential as well.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Anything exciting happen with the overnight model runs?
  16. Carvers Gap
    Great start and then coasted home....but glad to have Tennessee basketball back.
  17. Carvers Gap
    John has it posted in the main thread. Great track. ICON had something similar.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I think we are 37 as well. With that light breeze, still chilly. I have to go running later...just trying to wait for it to warm-up a hair.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Man, I really despise lows in the GL regions when tracking storms...they really screw-up all kings to potential.
  20. Carvers Gap
    That threat is not too far into the future. The 12z CMC and ICON especially have some threats. ICON is super similar to the Euro. Seems to be an wide range of solutions right after 120 with some of those begin wintry.
  21. Carvers Gap
    MBY has zip as well. Hey, it can only trend better.
  22. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS and GEPS continue a very quick pivot of the pattern after d10. The 12z GEFS(very late in the run so beware) has a ridge in the West and a block over Greenland. GEPS has something similar with more ridging along the EC. These are fairly significant changes compared to the what has been advertised for many days.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Temp is 34 in Kingsport with a slight breeze. WC is probably below 32. Pretty raw day.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Biggest thing I notice is that it is a real pain to get it to snow in Tennessee prior to the 15th of December. We have seen some early season, low-elevation snows during recent years...but really as a kid I never really expected it to snow until around or just after Christmas. Getting some great tracks with marginal or no cold. If we can keep that track(or have it re-develop) later this month or in early January, we would likely be in business. I would not rule out accumulating snow north of I-40 during the next couple of weeks across the forum area. Someone would have to thread the needle, but anytime a storm goes "under" us in terms of latitude during the winter months, it probably should be watched.
  25. Carvers Gap
    12z suite rolling. Taking a quick break from the virtual school grind.... Looks like the GFS, ICON, and CMC have low-road storm threats. The ICON(nice middle and west snow) and CMC both have something between 120-140h. GFS looks slightly too progressive. VERY active pattern - mostly rainers but some mix/snow stuff.
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