Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Significant change by the gfs.
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Southeast trend by the gfs. Man, it almost caved. Not there yet, but close.
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Yeah, it is digging less and almost 150-200 miles further along.
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This run of the GFS is faster with slightly less digging. Might result in a less robust system. That would be good for the Valley.
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18z GFS looks slightly more progressive at 42. Let’s see where this ends up.
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Let us not discount how cold the 12z GEFS is. Crazy cold.
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Yep forgot about that. I do think it does a better job with the warm-nose(maybe Jeff said that in the other thread). But tough right now to discount the steady Euro run which actually has support from the GEFS and its own EPS. Guessing one of the two blinks by 0z. There is an argument to be made that it will cut, but that almost requires an amped solution over Louisiana. And the model with amping problems is the one cutting it. Tough call. Never thought I would see the day where the Euro has the consistently most progressive model run.
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Yep, delayed their release.
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Normally, I would never even give a GFS/CMC combo any weight in comparison a Euro/UK/GEFS/EPS combo. I mean that last combo is stout. I would throw out the GFS/CMC solutions or minimize their influence in my thinking. However, they have done ok with the past couple of storms. Seems like the Euro woefully missed the warm-nose for E TN. Not sure the GFS did much better though! That said, this will be a test of those models as they were recently updated. FTR, I am not sure the GEFS received the update or not. Seems like it was supposed to, but I never checked.
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This is like overtime in college football. We got our 2pt conversion with the Euro. Now to 18z, to see if the GFS converts or folds. The 12z GEFS rejoined the Euro camp. The models with the newer updates are the GFS and CMC. They are either too amped, or their updates have better physics in the region.
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EPS slp placement barely moved compared to 0z.
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It is not often that I get to share 1' totals form a model deemed "Dr. No" while the rest of the models say, "No." I have low confidence in this map. It needs some support outside of the UK.
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LOL. There is more....
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There is way more snow in E TN. Snow falls almost through 120.
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Still plenty of snow falling at 111 over NE TN.
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Lots of ice/mix over TRI on that Euro run.
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I mean the Euro barely(and I mean barely budged). It might even be further east around Hatteras than 0z.
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In other news, the 12z Euro held serve.
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From Pivotal: (12 Jan 2022) GDPS and RDPS maps may be delayed or missing due to data feed problems at Environment Canada.
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Appears the CMC is "broke down"(poor grammar noted...but used anyway). LOL.
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12z GEFS is a slop-fest in NE TN. The 500 pattern argues that the cold should be scoured out, and it would be rain here. Cold just hangs on forever in NE TN and SW VA. Not sure that is actually what happens. A lot of times modeling will erroneously bleed cold air into TRI. Verbatim it is is snow to sleet to rain. One note, the 12z GFS is slightly colder across NE TN and SW VA. @Daniel Boone what do you think?
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Agree on all counts, but will add that I am in the camp that wants snow. LOL.
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Just digging around while waiting on 12z. When I first started following modeling, if I saw a d8-14 that looked like that, I was pretty excited - BN temps and AN precip w/ a great looking storm track. We may not get anything or we may do well...but tough to draw up a winter pattern better than that. Also, here is the analog package which was released yesterday. 1994 stands out. Some cold/stormy analogs in that package.
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Trends at 0z are important. I don't think we will see modeling step back towards a major hit. Agree on all points. I do hold out a glimmer of hope as the Euro op at 6z looked more favorable in terms of location and wasn't as wrapped up. EPS has more members going hybridB though the mean also looked weaker which we need. That is the first time during several runs in which I have seen modeling hiccup.
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The 0z CMC looks almost identical at 0z to the GFS. Most ensembles are trending towards a more hybrid-B. I wish the GFS didn't have support, but it has the lion's share right now. I definitely consider the GFS a plausible option as nearly every model is trending towards it, including and especially ensembles. The problem right now is I think the GFS has a bias with being overly amped, and has been so for most of January for our region. I think some sort of handoff is highly likely. The question is whether the GFS is over-doing it, and it might be. The bigger concern is the GFS has been a step ahead of the Euro during January, just have to take into account it juicing-up these storms. Right now that extra strength makes a world of difference for those along I40 and north.
