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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    For NE TN folks...I think this is not a huge event, but any ZR is a pain in the neck so heads up. Modeling has hinted at this on an off for several days. Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Morristown TN 358 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019 TNZ015>018-042>047-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-122115- Hancock-Hawkins-Sullivan-Johnson-Northwest Greene- Southeast Greene-Washington-Unicoi-Northwest Carter- Southeast Carter-Lee-Wise-Scott-Russell- Including the cities of Evanston, Sneedville, Treadway, Kyles Ford, Mooresburg, Kingsport, Bristol TN, South Holston Dam, Doeville, Mountain City, Neva, Shady Valley, Trade, Laurel Bloomery, Greeneville, Cedar Creek, Johnson City, Erwin, Unicoi, Limestone Cove, Elizabethton, Hampton, Rose Hill, Big Stone Gap, Norton, Wise, Coeburn, Appalachia, Pardee, Hiltons, Hansonville, Lebanon, Dye, Castlewood, Honaker, Rosedale, Benhams, Bristol VA, and Abingdon 358 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019 ...BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE... Rainfall will spread north across northeastern Tennessee and southwest Virginia beginning around midnight tonight. As it begins, temperatures are expected to be around or slightly below freezing, but will rise slowly through the night as rain persists. This will result in a four to six hour window of freezing rain or a mix of rain and freezing rain. Ice accumulations are expected to be light, generally only a hundredth or two. But travel conditions could become hazardous a brief time, especially across elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses, as well as secondary roads. The highest impacts will likely be in southwest Virginia where freezing temperatures will persist the longest. Temperatures should quickly rise above freezing around daybreak, ending any threat of freezing rain and quickly improving travel conditions.
  2. Carvers Gap
    One of these days I am going to go in there when everyone gets a universal dusting and plug-in 13" of snow...
  3. Carvers Gap
    Looks like I had around ~.75" of snow. Could have been a hair more or less than that. Tough to tell. Great to see folks getting in some early season snow. I though the models handled the precip pattern pretty well. No model was overly enthused about amounts over NE TN, and indeed, amounts were fairly light IMBY. Models definitely favored a good thump for those to my west, and indeed, that worked out fairly well. I will add that the roads started getting a little icy around 7:30, but better now. It was great to see all of the reports and pics. It was also great to see all of the new folks and forum participation for this. Another fun event!
  4. Carvers Gap
    To really grasp how much models have moved this AM in the d10-15, look at the BN height change over Alaska in the GEPS and EPS. The GEPS is back to a favorable pattern already, and one might imagine that the EPS wasn't far behind it. So, two really strong biases that are making LR ideas difficult to formulate: 1. The GEFS is too cold in the LR, but it seems to spot cold shots...just have to remember they won't be as cold as modeled - usually. In some cases, the GFS has nailed big highs from way out during the past few months. 2. The EPS is nearly blind to cold shots after d10, and just tough to believe any warm-up that actually occurs in that time frame. A warm-up will happen, but a broken clock is right twice a day(meaning if it stays warm in that time frame...at some point it will be right). Right now, I do believe once inside d10, the Euro/EPS is the better model. So right now, my combo would by the Euro/EPS suite inside of d10 and the GFS/GEFS(with cold bias accounted for) after d10. @jaxjagman, so is modeling today showing a SPV disturbance(edit...I must be just waking up as well!)in today's modeling? I haven't looked. I know yesterday folks were talking about potential records.
  5. Carvers Gap
    I should clarify...the SPV. The PV in the troposphere(TPV) does play a part in our winter weather.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Biggest thing is that there are a lot of mixed signals in the LR. If one wanted to look for hope, the EPS broke a bit with continuity last night. Now, the look is not much better than before. However, the run-to-run trend and the actually 500 portrayal lifts the ridge out into Greenland. What that would do is allow a trough to reform in the East underneath it. In the LR, nothing much is gospel. However, if a model breaks once...not an unexpected blip. If it starts to waffle around, then changes are afoot which would be a good thing given its big ridge look from the past several days. As for the PV, it is tough to really know what it is going to do. Most winters it is a minor factor. With this being a Nino winter and warmth being transported poleward in a cyclical nature(not now), I wouldn't be surprised to see it get jostled more.
  7. Carvers Gap
    And another monster high w big storm showing up on the 18z GFS. Wonder if that finally works out at some point. While the GFS has whiffed of late on big highs, it does spot them before the Euro does in general.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Switched over now in Kingsport. Great sight!
  9. Carvers Gap
    It probably should go in banter...but that 1050 high at day 10 and that storm out of the GOM on the 12z GFS. LOL...that is just pretty much impressive. Wow. Man, I have seen a lot of storms on the LR, but that might be in the top 3 ever.
  10. Carvers Gap
    With it falling at night, that is also a plus for those of us trying to eek out an inch or two of snow in the eastern valley. Interesting for sure. Will also be interesting to see how the system at 144 evolves over the next few days.
  11. Carvers Gap
    If you look on models like the RGEM, NAM, and ARW....they all show several little ripples riding up that boundary. Very difficult to model. If the eastern valley scores on this, it will be one of those "micro-bursts"(man, no idea what to call those) moving from southwest to northeast. Again, we are probably talking the difference between one tenth of moisture. Not sure the models are precise enough for that...yet. One day they will likely be. So, I think the reason for the models "waffling" is we are talking about small amounts of precip making the difference between nothing and and inch or two of snow.
  12. Carvers Gap
    The 6z Euro has beefed up just a bit.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Kind of an interesting look at a144 that might have to be watched around 144 on both 0z Euro and 6z GFS. Due to the weekend storm pushing the cold boundary south, it sort of acts like a temporary block. Due to that, the storm on Monday right behind it was forced south on overnight runs. The frozen precip boundary is now along the TN/KY border for a bit, and then WAA kicks it out. The trend was well south from previous runs....needs to be watched because the trend is pushing that boundary south. Also, there is a HP over the top of that system. Looks like some energy will cut west of the Apps and mess-up the thermal profile...but that look overnight was new and might not be done. The GFS high on the 6z run even forced the low south of the Apps(barely). Need to keep an eye on that trend.
  14. Carvers Gap
    @nrgjeff, if this warm-up has duration...you need to sacrifice those lift tickets.
  15. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS implies that we "might"(famous last words) get some help from the Atlantic with AN heights showing up over Greenland. What is encouraging is that heights have lowered(not hugely) over the SE in response to that. Something to keep an eye on, and continues the odd trend of afternoon modeling being more conducive to winter than 0z.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, if the area of weak low pressure is going to hang that far back...might as well just slow down and come out as a Miller A. LOL. This time frame is the one where I thought there might have a shot at an overrunning even this week - just didn't pan out that way. That said, that HRRR map is very close to that, but the HP is just too weak. Now, let that energy hang back there about twelve more hours...nah, but fun to think about.
  17. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro is picking-up on some sleet/ZR in the higher elevations north of I-40 on Friday morning in SW VA(edit...sorry), NE TN and Plateau. Looks like it hangs on for several hours, especially in CAD prone valleys and western NC. Tnweathernut mentioned that high would not be easily moved if real. Looks like a good observation there. If the onset of rain is earlier, I wouldn't rule out some mischief in the valley. Not saying anything serious, but nuisance type stuff west of the Apps.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS looks remarkably like the 0z EPS. Not that a cave means much in the LR...but that is pretty much that.
  19. Carvers Gap
    The Euro tends to really mess around with pieces of energy coming out of the southwest, and that messes up its solution in cases like these where the tail end of the front is lagging to the southwest. The GFS, which is usually more progressive, is more amped and thus has more accumulation. For west and middle TN, I think a blend of the two is probably a good idea. The faster this thing goes, the better it is for the eastern valley. IMHO, if all of this slows down, then the system just dissipates. Looks like a notable event for west and middle w/ the Plateau as well. I have slim hopes for NE TN. Just looks like the moisture zips out of here before meaningful cold arrives. I think west and middle might see 1-3" w the eastern valley seeing accums close to the Plaeau. Not sure this makes it to the eastern mountains though that seems counterintuitive.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Check that. GFS looks good in west TN. The NAM has backed off considerably. For middle and west TN, looks like a decent chance...models ranging from and inch or two...to warning criteria for some locals. I think for E TN...the further east one goes, tougher it gets. When it starts to get down to and inch or two of accumulation...that IMHO begins to get close to model tolerances - meaning it is just tough to be accurate as really one is just splitting hairs between a tenth of an inch of water.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Looks to me like the overall 12z suite, excluding the Canadian suite, has backed off somewhat. May just be simple ebb and flow OR that models are getting a better handle on things. Euro has backed-off quite a bit over several runs.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Just glancing at storm tracks for the next 2-3 weeks. Looks like we have the front Tuesday night. Then, this weekend looks like an slp from the GOM with a low in the Lakes. Then, it looks like cutters OR systems running along the OH river valley. I did read some stuff this AM about the PV tightening up for a time. I doubt that continues for long given the ENSO state. ...And I do hold loosely to the idea that winters tend to balance out in NA relative to the current state. The West has had some fantastic winters during the last five years. I think it likely that shifts this direction at some point. This winter? IDK. We are also due a winter where we get a broad North American tough that is cold coast-to-coast. That type of winter may be due around the time the AMO goes negative. Again, it is very rare that winters don't have some type of warm-up. It is also fairly normal for Nino winters to get going around mid-Jan or even late Jan.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The GEFS gives us some hope with its high latitude looks this AM in the LR. The EPS looks very warm during the d10-15 range and is locked-in it appears. Now, this week is a good example of something modeling missed. That said, JB mentioned that the EPS is doing very well for temps this week and likely next...meaning it has settled-in and has to be taken seriously. Let's see if the GEFS actually begins to roll that d14-16 look forward. If it doesn't, just a mirage. The actual warm pattern is now within ten days and approaching incrementally with each model run, meaning it's not being pushed back. How long will it be warm? I think a wide range is wise...my hope is that it is just a couple of weeks. My hunch(though not set in stone as these past few weeks have had much variability) is that we are looking a 3-5 weeks with the start date next week. So, maybe the cold returns consistently around mid-late January. Not saying that is the gospel...just what it looks like on modeling this AM. The GEFS would imply a temporary and shorter period of AN temps. The EPS would imply a locked-in, repeating western trough. Need to see the EPS begin to shake that look soon as what it is depicting will take time to actually break down. The convection in the eastern Indian Ocean combined with a recently positive SOI(daily)(*edit...dipped back to -4 today) is a strong signal for a western trough similar to last winter. Obviously this is not last winter and the convection is probably 2/3 of last year's event...So, looks like we will have to weather some December warmth which is expected, but I really don't like it coming mid-month. Likely means that warmth presses into January. We will see. Hopefully this will be just a winter of strong variability and no pattern locks-in.
  24. Carvers Gap
    ....and even the 12z Euro operational is cold with very little sign of warmth. So, definitely some conflicting signals. The 12z Euro is quite cold around d10.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS has a textbook winter pattern with blocking in both oceans. I don't like the ensembles...they get better at this time of the year. But the operational run cannot be discounted due to its recent ability to sniff out blocking...
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