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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    So, it pays to look at the surface. We don't live at 500. The GEPS and GEFS, which look decidedly less inviting at 12z at 500, are still quite cold at the surface as the feed from the Plains is undercutting any SE ridge at 500. So, I may have spoke a hair to soon. I do think the trough will retrograde west. Almost all Weeklies stuff is showing that and that look is around 300 hours on ensembles. That said, IF the trough sets up shop over Montana...we could still see cold air bleed eastward to the Apps. INDEED, verbatim that is a great pattern for middle and west TN. MJO is not a good look though...that hasn't changed.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Agree. I am not yet convinced MBY in NE TN sees much. Models are just all over the place. And yeah, the NW trend with this block will be tougher. For that to happen, really need a storm to get wound up.
  3. Carvers Gap
    For the first time in quite some time, starting to see a clear signal that the MJO is firing and potentially taking the warm tour. As we have seen with modeling at 12z, there should be nearly an immediate reaction after d10 with models depicting that. That is a big change. If true, the MJO will definitely want to retrograde the trough west and undercut it with a ridge across the southern tier.
  4. Carvers Gap
    Taking a lunch break...In the LR, looks like the ensembles are quickly retrograding the trough into the central areas of the country after 300 on both the GEPS and GEFS - not a huge change in continuity but some.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Virtual school bogging everything down here at the house(can't get anything done at all...not work and definitely not weather) - virtual just started back for the first time since August. We have worked our schedules so both of us can be home, but still not enough hands on desk with a house full of kiddos. Whew! Keep the fires burning...will check-in when I can. On top of virtual learning for young kids being terrible - no snow days now! LOL.
  6. Carvers Gap
    18z Euro look really robust - complete opposite of the weaker GFS solution. Could be a bias of being too wound up...only goes out to 90 on the op but looked good.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Sorry. Entire run.
  8. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS and GEFS ensembles are about as beefy as one might see for tis time of year. GEFS has 2+" for pretty much the entire state - more in many places. EPS is less but still a great signal.
  9. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro looked like a reasonable chance for much E TN for storm one - not a huge snow, but 2-3" for valley locations and much higher on the Plateau and Smokies. Tough sometimes to decide if higher elevation amounts skew the lower elevations between the mountains and Plateau. Storm one is much more of a slider with backside snow. Storm two was basically snow turning to rain with WAA and a perfect track - highly doubt that happens with HP sitting over the top. Would likey be ice if that switched over from snow.
  10. Carvers Gap
    I told tnweathernut the other day that we are about to go old school. LOL!
  11. Carvers Gap
    Has it actually verified? I don't the answer to that. LOL. Sometimes systems with very little steering current will do that. Sometimes modeling just doesn't know where to put the low. It happens sometimes with systems when they hit the benchmark for NE winter storms. Hey, maybe Memphis is the new winter storm benchmark! In all seriousness, good luck to you west TN folks getting something. You all have definitely waiter your turn!
  12. Carvers Gap
    And let me say, some GREAT trends on modeling at 12z! I just don't trust the GFS right now. Toggle(back in time) the first system as it goes through North Carolina - just all over the place. That said, the GFS has not been terrible until last week. Certainly looks like modeling wants to produce a Miller A for system two. Just with seven days to go, going to be tough to nail down a system while modeling is still adjusting to the block. Again though, good trends. As expected at this range...details are still up for grabs.
  13. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC actually cuts the second system through middle TN. Would be a great track for west TN. While I am unsure about NE TN, does look like the somebody in the subform may score with one or both of the next two systems.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Again, I think we need to be very careful with the GFS. It trended a system from WV to nearly Colorado last week. Right now, the trend could be the opposite. I don't think it is handling the block well. The 12z GFS Para on Pivotal looks a lot more reasonable. As soon as one see the loop to loop(GFS regular) in Arkansas for the first system...have to think that solution is less likely.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Debatable whether the second system will be south of us. The 12z CMC is not. I don't trust the GFS with the first system, and that first system sets the wave pattern that will allow the second system to cut or go underneath. I would think both systems go south, but absolutely not written in stone yet for the second.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Second storm is going to be tough to forecast. The system for the 8th has trended SE over time. Modeling is struggling with the block right now. Like BNA says, just get the track right, and we will worry about the rest later.
  17. Carvers Gap
    12z updated... Such a range of options from the 12z suite for the 8/9th system. Going to depend on the angle that the systems takes. The GFS is very progressive and does a near loop to loop over Arkansas. To me, the para looks very realistic and matches the ICON very well. The CMC is a bit strung out. This is almost like trying to predict where a hurricane makes landfall while running parallel to the coast. The slightest degree of change in regards to angle of entry....changes forecasts by dozens and dozens of miles.
  18. Carvers Gap
    The one thing with the 8th/9th systems is the downsloping in the eastern valley. The system is weak enough and far enough away that some downsloping (and even temps rising) is possible over the far eastern valley including portions of TRI. Seems like when modeling latches on to downsloping, tough to shake. 12z suite about to roll...
  19. Carvers Gap
    Still think the 8th/9th system is just now coming into focus. Trends tend to favor western NC, but really tough to rule out the eastern valley at this point or even the Plateau. Another system is immediately after that one centered around next Monday. The 6z GEFS mean for NE TN is 6+" of snow w/ 2-4" for much of middle TN and the rest of E TN - increasing as one heads north and east.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Good catch. And the changes due to that may be very abrupt. Modeling is a lot colder today. Very evident the TPV is getting split after d10 within those runs. Seeing models change over the last 48 hours reminds me of Feb’18.
  21. Carvers Gap
    The 18z GFS does continue the trend of 12z modeling in finding bitterly cold air after d10. So as not to create confusions. The GOA vortex still basically pumps the cold out of northern Canada during the next week. Post d10, the steady reversal of cold back over to the pole into Canada is still there...but vastly accelerated. I think a new/continued SSW is playing a role that.
  22. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS gets strung out with the storm on the 8th. However, the 18z GFS-Para now has it.
  23. Carvers Gap
    You can watch on both the GEFS and GEPS at 12z, the cold just pouring over the pole once the GOA vortex(which pumps the cold back to Siberia initially...see previous posts) gets out of the way. The 12z GEFS is very much in the process of relocating a large portion of Siberian cold over the pole once that GOA vort gets out of the way after next weekend.
  24. Carvers Gap
    So, looking at the 12z GFS and Euro, sure looks like the TPV splits just by the cold that some this direction. If you look at the 50mb strat anomalies on the GFS, you can see a significant split. The TPV is very likely under the warmer heights heading over the pole after d10 on the operational run.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Also, be sure to look at the NA view of the GFS on Tropical Tidbits. Toggle to temps(not anomalies) and watch the cold come over the pole into Canada. Impressive.
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