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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at the LR, really nothing new. There are some hints the Pacific may get its act together during the first part of January - CFSv2 extended. The run of the GEFS extended breaks down the pattern in early Jan, but then WxBell stops the run. WxBell has been really "buggy" for the past few weeks. For you all using pay sites, who are you using? I am not unhappy with WxBell, but if the site continues to be buggy I will take my business elsewhere. I think we are going to have to have a resupply of cold air if we are going to get a forum wide storm at lower elevations. Though currently, the 0z CMC and 6z GFS do imply ice for NE TN for the second storm. Holston, that second storm indeed looks like a Miller B on some models and those usually bring rain to the forum area. For the models which don't have energy transfer(or have less), NE TN sees ice or snow or both. Not sure I buy ice here (at least for extended amounts of time). We do get light icing at times if the storm moves in during an inversion, but that usually gets scoured before serious damage is done. Models often make the mistake of bleeding cold air into the TRI from the NE when the mountains usually just won't allow it. Sometimes it can get to Abingdon, but that is about it. I will add that when DC gets in the slot for snow, often snow accumulations will begin in NE TN and work NE into the Mid-Atlantic. So, for the extreme NE TN corner...these have to be watched. Just depends on how quickly that low gets its act together.
  2. Carvers Gap
    @John1122, we have even had snow during mid-early December. I think twice during the last 11 years, 09-10 and a couple of years ago. I think the December snow days a couple of years ago were Kingsport's first in nearly four decades(could be more). Those were both really big snows. I think you have noted that early season storms seems to be the trend of late.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Starting to become more of the opinion that we are going to need another strong cold shot of air into our region. Marginal systems at this time of year at lower elevations and at this latitude are just tough to get much mojo from. That said, within the next two weeks, we get to much more favorable climatological norms, and that helps.
  4. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS much better looking this run d10+ with a small PNA ridge and NAO block. We can live with that.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Not sure if it is the WxBell algorithm, but it has snow for the first system over SE KE, the Plateau of TN, and SW VA, and the Smokies. 2-3" of snow on the Plateau.
  6. Carvers Gap
    The 12z CMC is close to a big storm for Weds in this area...very big for MA and NE.
  7. Carvers Gap
    And to quote a famous poster of the TN Valley..."When we start talking about the MJO, that is usually not a good sign."
  8. Carvers Gap
    Thought I might take some time to look at why we are seeing some variability in modeling in the long range this morning. Grabbed the CA OLR map (outgoing long wave radiation). The cooler areas on the map indicate higher cloud tops and signal more convection(t-storms). The first image is the CA(constructed analog) OLR map. You can see the IO (Indian Ocean) go very quiet as the wave propogates(moves) from the MC to the dateline. As a quick note, the MJO's favorable phases for winter weather are near the dateline(180). So, days 11-15 would see the MJO move into phase 7(and maybe even 8,1) which is colder in NDJ (DJF is warm). So, the phase 7 is sort of in-between the DJF and NDJ by late month, and that causes a washed out signal since one three month analog is warm(DJF) and the other is cooler (NDJ). The second map is from the GEFS. The OLR there is locked into the MC(Maritime Continent) for the foreseeable future. How modeling is handling the Indian Ocean and the MC is not consistent among different models IMHO. Some models are taking the MJO through 4 to 5 to 6 and one would guess...7. The EMON rotates through the circle of death. The CA rotates at higher amplitude to 7. The GEFS stalls the MJO. In other words, models are all over the place with the MJO. Take one look at the 500 maps for the major ensembles this AM, and you will see the model spread. All of that said, we "might" see a more conducive Pacific later this month or even by January. As I noted yesterday, if we can use the -NAO to bridge to the a better Pacific set-up later on...we might have a chance to stay seasonal(or slightly above) until the next legit cold shot - and that is a win if we like winter. Why? Normal or even slightly above will get the job done later this month. Right now, I don't think I buy much after d15 - cold or warm. I would say my confidence level is low. If forced, I would say we will continue to see weaker heights over the SE for the foreseeable future with some ridges rolling through. I do think there is a chance (if the -NAO verifies and we get even a temporary PNA or EPO) that we could see some colder temps rotate through. I think the problem right now is the Atlantic block is muting what would otherwise be a total torch. Computer models, like humans, are trying to figure out how much of an influence that block is going to have. At the very least, we are going to likely see an active and stormy patterns with cutters and some Miller A(with marginal cold...increasingly colder as December averages take hold) stuff. References: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml (CA stuff) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ (phase correlation map of MJO to NA wx per three month increments) https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo-and-why-do-we-care (phases of MJO by longitude) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml (various model output for the MJO)
  9. Carvers Gap
    On a positive note, the CFSv2 Seasonal(not the CFS extended) this morning flipped cold for January. No idea if that holds in future runs as it bounces around, but it has been solid in the warm camp for January for some time. One thing to watch for is that the GEPS has shifted (around Christmas) the AN height field into Nova Scotia vs Greenland - looks temporary but that would pump an EC ridge if true. Again, I really don't like losing the EPS in the LR as it has reverted back to its original warm solution along the EC around Dec 21 which is just three days later than the steadfast runs of the week before(never ending warm). And again, it is holding a low in the Southwest which is often a miserable error that it often repeats. American modeling is colder(surprise!) while other modeling has backed-off the nice 500 pattern in varying degrees after the 20th. Could just be a wobble...time will tell. Last winter has me gun shy.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Not a fan of where the 0z EPS went last night in the LR. I really hate playing the "low gets stuck in the SW" game with that model. Huge bias, but sometimes it is right. Most other modeling looks good in the LR, but EPS makes me a bit nervous. As for the Monday system, same playbook as the last system on almost all modeling, and I am not sure why that happens - massive NW shift. Now, lets' see if it doesn't start coming back SE later tonight and tomorrow. If we get snow, looks like the Plateau would be the spot. NE TN is out of this one unless it goes eastward - and I am not ruling that out.
  11. Carvers Gap
    WxBell algorithm. About as marginal as one could get. SLP is slightly NW of 0z. If it goes like the other system...will trend NW a few more runs and then jog SE quite a bit and back a tick NW.
  12. Carvers Gap
    WxBell has snow north of 40 - heavy on the Plateau.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Since I have been doing this as a hobby, I am not sure I can really remember tracking many -NAOs. LOL. I have lived through -NAO winters, but have not tracked many. Pretty much anything is better than last winter's tracking options. For real, how many -NAO winters have we had since 2000?
  14. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I noticed on some OLR maps that the warm phases near the MC don't have high cloud tops in the LR which would likely mean less convection. Also, the MJO looks like it may rotate quickly through 6(edit) and is aimed directly at 7. If we can rotate through 7, 8, and 1 during late December, that would be cold I think. During a normal winter, I almost never really worried about snow prior to Dec. You Plateau folks have different benchmarks! LOL. As a kid, I pretty felt like a 1-2" snow(in Knoxville during the 70s) was expected before early Jan. I think this year with so many warm analogs(though once small cluster is very cold), folks feel like we have to get winter before mid Jan...and they may be right. That said, it has been a while since we have had a cold winter. So, we are sort of due. But I will gladly take what the Weeklies are dishing out....well, until they get warm in mid Jan. The torch on the Weeklies has been pushed back almost three weeks now. Small victories!
  15. Carvers Gap
    Can kind of see the block at work there. Looks like the system near Jacksonville slows and gets caught by a trailing piece of energy...then mini-boom phase. Many Kocin storms have -NAOs. You folks on the Plateau benefit far less with Atlantic blocking and do much better with Pacific. We get a lot of Atlantic feed up here as you know. If we didn't, I think we would be an almost arid region. John, what would be awesome is if the NAO can carry us until the Pacific gets a bit better - could bridge us between early December and mid-Jan.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I think with pretty vigorous winter storms, it is super common to have something go west of the Apps. Just want the lion's share east.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Here are the maps from WxBell for the 12z Euro Deterministic: Storm 1...continues after that slide as well 3-5 hour event if the model is to be believed for TRI - big IF. Storm 1 accums... Storm 2...You can see the SLP alone the coast. Heads NNE right inside of Hatters. There is a high sliding off just to the north of this screenshot. Due to my mad copy and paste skills, I have cropped it out.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Actually, that second system has a great track, but just not enough cold.
  19. Carvers Gap
    I am seeing a coastal near Charleston for that one and then runs up the coast. Looks to me like the HP slide by a bit to quickly and we get the warm nose as the GOM feed punches into the Valley.
  20. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro is flirting with another storm next Thursday. Entry angle into the SE is decent for a slider(but watch it cut...if it does, sorry for the jinx).
  21. Carvers Gap
    The 12z Euro puts TN back in the ballgame for the Monday event. Super close call up this way. Kind of has a sloppy look to it right now, but will have to keep following trends. SLP placement is pretty much perfect for TRI, but cold is very marginal as evidenced by other deterministic models having cold rain. Anyone know the time of day for that event? I haven't seen the extended GEFS today(only comes out on the pay site after supper), but I like that model. My only access to the GEFS extended has been this winter season. At 500 yesterday, it didn't look all that bad. Surface temps were lousy for sure. One would think it would verify cold if the 500 look is real. I looks at 500 maps and 850 temps as surface temps seem to be off lately. CFS almost seems too cold. Just don't cancel basketball season this year.
  22. Carvers Gap
    GFS and Euro both have Monday's system back. As Tellico noted, it is weaker but looks like a good compromise. That said, it is never out of the question that modeling could trend back to nothing or even trend stronger. Time of day would be important. LR, still a lot of uncertainty. It is less certain that it will be warm from Dec 18-30 than it was 4-5 days ago. But, it is no slam dunk for cold either. Kind of a fun time of year. Nothing huge for sure, but would not surprise me to see a really amped system at some point either. After last winter where it was just one disappointment after another and then finally went warm, "uncertainty" is not a terrible outcome in LR modeling or even short range. Gives everyone a chance to hone their skills, and maybe reel one in. Kind of like this...better fishing in a lake that has fish than one that does note(comparing this year to last year).
  23. Carvers Gap
    Have you looked at the spv/tpv at that time? Has to be something going on....to really crank that. It(-NAO) is showing up on multiple models as well, even the ensembles are having to dig for new colors.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I have seen those the past couple of years - rarely verify. However, they are often a sign of a SPV. If we can trap the TPV on this side of the planet(and I think we have a chance), might be fun.
  25. Carvers Gap
    I am with you. Throw in a -NAO, and that would be a double block with Siberia being record cold.
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