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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    And even more crazy, temps were in the 70s in the eastern Valley on Jan 1.
  2. Carvers Gap
    95-96 is sneaking in there. This snow in middle TN is super similar to one of those storms, just displaced to the west a bit. We have had two forum snowstorms in one week. The high temp was 78 here on Saturday. What a flip!
  3. Carvers Gap
    Good pasting. About ~1" of snow. Will take. On the board for the season....
  4. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, they are money up there. If we had to name a snow capital for the forum area, it would be in my top two. Sits at 2,400' and has a latitude advantage and gets lake effect snow to some extent on northwest flow. The snow totals they have for storms rivals some cities out West.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Snowing pretty good here (north side of Bays) as well. Ground is white. I didn't even know it was snowing until I read @1234snow's post. LOL.
  6. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS(several previous runs as well).....What really has me intrigued is the parade of storms with relatively BN temps in place - cold weather plus an active STJ. Beginning around the 15th(210), I count roughly 4 systems out to 330. Models hasn't finished running yet.
  7. Carvers Gap
    The map that @Bigbaldposted above is wild. It will change here at 18z most assuredly. But this is what was under that at 500. I know you know this, East Knox, but for those new to the forum...this is just for fun since it was so extreme.
  8. Carvers Gap
    That look is bringing the hammer.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Textbook winter pattern. If I lived on the EC, I would be licking my chops - neg tilt trough over NA. YAS!!!!
  10. Carvers Gap
    Pattern looks great from the 15th to roughly the 30th. Get the EPS looking like what Holston posted, things could be rocking. What a turn around from last week. The 30d map on the Euro Weeklies is BN for temps and roughly AN for precip for the forum area. As we have seen this week, AN precip and BN temps is a good combo.
  11. Carvers Gap
    15-30th looks really good. Not guaranteeing anything, but about as good as it gets. Let's hope we can reel it in.
  12. Carvers Gap
    That northwest trend yesterday told the story. Have seen some light and scattered flurries. That should be it for this storm unless it reorganizes. Euro absolutely nailed this system, including the late trend which split the system over E TN. Cold ensues! Next round after mid-month. Time for a break in tracking! Two in one week is work. Congratulations to those in middle TN on their snow!
  13. Carvers Gap
    That would be extreme for sure. Pretty sure that is with zero snow on the ground. We will have to watch as LR modeling is trying to spin-up storms after mid-month. With so much cold in Canada, wouldn't take much. For now, definitely fantasy land...but maybe not for my pipes!!!
  14. Carvers Gap
    I am feeling a dry slot in my near future. Quick rain/snow shower and that should be it for MBY.
  15. Carvers Gap
    300+ 12z GFS is what can happen if a slp deepens with cold air in place. Teens below zero to end that run.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Well, the 12z GFS isn't going to back down not matter what! Can't decide whether to chuckle or not.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Man there are a crap ton of people watching this thread relative to our forum. Awesome to see.
  18. Carvers Gap
    12k NAM result is that there is little to snow accumulation east of the mountains. That said, it upped total precip. Problem is most of it is rain in the eastern valley. If it is wrong about p-type, then snow totals will be higher than forecast. If it is right about p-type, not much snow for the eastern valley (top to bottom).
  19. Carvers Gap
    Scratch that last post. Precip is more. Problem is warm-nose which I think will be attributed to a lot of this falling during afternoon daylight hours in E TN.
  20. Carvers Gap
    12z NAM basically shuts this off at the Plateau. Looks like a good snow for middle TN. I still think this is moving much faster than modeling is showing. We will see. BTW, that doesn't increase amounts for MBY. Just looks fast w/ less precip.
  21. Carvers Gap
    System looks like it is moving faster than modeled. Which model actually lines up with the look of the storm right now?
  22. Carvers Gap
    The NAM went absolutely nuts. Kuchera map is a beauty.
  23. Carvers Gap
    12z Euro moves west with the heaviest snow axis. 12z on the left. 6z on the right.
  24. Carvers Gap
    One word of caution, sometimes models can erroneously perpetuate a cold pattern. I "think" that the above is a reflection of the GEFS MJO which is bullish into 8 after this current loop back into 7.
  25. Carvers Gap
    This is NOT a forecast. All speculation at this range. This is an example of what I said above about the pattern after the 15th. If you are going to draw up a cold, snowy pattern for the Rockies and eastward, this is how it looks. Blocking up top and see where the trough comes into the Lower 48 and turns eastward (the western Plains)....that is a pattern that would allow for a winter system(s) to track across our area. That is an EPO driven pattern with a ridge centered just below Greenland. Go look at some great winters storms in the East, and that is very close to the look.
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