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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Something to keep an eye on. The 12z Euro is actually SE of its previous run. Will be interesting to see if that comes back NW or if the block is being felt now - good test. The CMC was super close to something good. Almost looks like it is lacking precip for that vigorous of a vortex.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Man, Holston, I may be taking apples and oranges. I really need to look at the dates/times. You are talking the Tuesday deal? Sorry, I was talking Jan 8-9.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Crazy thing, this "could" move substantially NW over time and amp up. Anything substantially to our south or SE has to be watched due to models bringing things back so much NW at the last minute. We will see the big NAO reverses the NW trend with past systems to a more SE suppressed trend.
  4. Carvers Gap
    With six days to go, still a lot of movement possible. Almost seems like modeling can't decide between the 8/9 system or the 10/11 system in terms of which one to amplify.
  5. Carvers Gap
    At 141 on the Euro 12z, that little bowling ball on the 8th is a bit further south as it enters the forum area.
  6. Carvers Gap
    If the southern stream energy were to check-up and slow down OR the northern stream catch-up...big storm. What is right behind it has my attention.
  7. Carvers Gap
    That is Jax's bowling ball system. Just kind of bowls underneath....I have had my eye on that one for a bit - nice synoptics but lacking in cold. The CMC almost did some good things with that. Wonder if it will trend north with time or feel the block and trend south?
  8. Carvers Gap
    Additionally, TRI finished -0.4 for the month of December with 4.6" of snow at the airport. Precip was 0.15 AN(thought that might be higher). Last December was +5.7F.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Will be interesting to see what kind of AN departures get built prior to the 8th. Yesterday at TRI we were +13.5 for Jan 1. Right now, were are already at 60. Will be fun to see if those can get erased.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Also, I remember modeling was steadfast in December that the 18th would be the beginning of a big warm-up...and it snowed on the 24th. LOL. I like this type of "push back" of the pattern. It is usually the other way around. Wonder if NAO winters feature "warm that never takes hold" because modeling just hasn't had to deal with it very often during winter. I suspect modern era modeling has been developed when the base state for winter is normally a +NAO.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Yep. The CMC is considerably colder than the GFS at 12z...have a feeling the GFS is playing catchup even if the CMC is biased a bit cold. Makes me wonder if the MJO is playing too big of a factor in its(GEFS) algorithms vs the NAO block. Oddly, one thing with has not verified is the monster NAO which has been been modeled. The -NAO is there but has not been to the extreme modeling has shown...but I have a feeling it is about to maybe meet those expectations during the next two weeks.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Day10-15+ discussion... I am probably one of the few, but I don't think what happens after the 10th(especially after the 15th) is settled. There are basically two camps for the MJO this morning. One camp is the ECMWF which holds in phase 2 right at the COD. The GEFS rotates at decent amplitude into phases 3 and 4. This likely explains the tendency of American modeling to try to more quickly move the trough into the West on some recent operational runs. I think this is a less likely scenario than the EPS, but I can't rule it out. Overall, there is a trend to retrograde the future trough westward. Some, like the EPS, retrograde it into Texas. Some, like the last several runs of the CFSv2extended, pop a ridge in the East and never look back - a solution which has yet to verify this winter I might add. So, I still lean with the EPS/GEPS this AM, but can't rule out something completely opposite of those models due to MJO differences. We are still dealing with cold source problems at this latitude. I think the mid-Atlantic near DC, Maryland, and Virginia looks like it could score in this pattern. Yesterday, I talked about the flow of cold out of northern Canada. Still very apparent today as Canada is pretty much emptied of seasonal and BN cold by the end of the upcoming week. Around d13 the flow reverses back towards NA on most modeling, with the 6z GFS being the quite aggressive. I think it is tricky business knowing where the cold will go once it returns. I suspect that goes into the Mountain West and then moves eastward sometime after the 15th. There is still a risk it could hold in the West if the CFSv2 is even halfway correct. If American modeling of the MJO is correct, the cold dumps West. If the Euro is correct, likely rotates into the East after first going into the Mountain West. Again, this is the time of year in which the Euro/EPS combo is very good. Some might say the Euro missed the Feb strat split and subsequent cold during March. True, but that was shoulder season territory where the Euro struggles when wavelengths change IMO. So interesting times. Short to midterm discussion... Still some potential during the next couple of weeks for high elevation snows and maybe threading the needle in the valleys. The operational 0z Euro is warmer than its 12z counter part from yesterday. That said, there is a tendency to push a cold front through around the 10th-11th. If real, that would a time to watch. When we have had significant cold fronts this winter(early Dec and Christmas Eve), we have had our chances. So, looks like a couple of windows, Jan 8/9 and Jan10/11 depending on your model of choice. The CMC is fairly aggressive with the 8/9th system. Agree with Jax, that is a bowling ball deal where it just "rolls from the Mountain West through a TBD track in the south. Then, there is potential for another system right on its heals on the 10/11th as seen on the 6z GFS and 0z Euo.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Agree. Sneaky little system with a HP over the top. If it trends a bit more south...
  14. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, very possible. Grit is really good. I kind of think the pattern at 500 holds(with maybe a ridge rolling through from time to time), but not saying that definitively - just spitballing. The trick is can we get true cold into the pattern before it changes up - not cold front cold but cold that has 1-2 weeks duration? Think it is very possible that we have a very good pattern from Jan 15 to Feb 5. I just don't want folks to get their hopes up like the past few winters! It is very possible we thread the needle prior to that. GFS is way too progressive. I think the Euro and CMC hold some promise late during week 2.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Just took a look at the 12z EPS snow mean - looks very elevation dependent IMBY. Now, the 12z GEPS ensemble snow mean is a different story, It implies a very good pattern(north of I-40) after the 10th. That pattern would be absolute money. The one thing about Canadian modeling is that it has done really well with the past two snows IMBY.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Definitely cold in northern Canada right now, that is not what I am saying. What I am noting is that nearly all of it rotates over the pole between d3-10 - see FRD's gif which I shared. So, that is basically going to delay the eastern trough having cold until maybe weeks 3-4 unless we can do what the Euro op does between d8-10 with cold draining alone eastern Canada. And as noted, the GFS(not the para) is struggling. The problem in valley areas, is we can't depend on elevation to get snow. We usually have to have a decent cold source. The past two snows are great examples of that. Both had incoming cold sources which fueled the changeover. I do agree (for now) that this appears to be a temporary problem or Canada which is solved by mid-month in regards to cold refueling Canada. So the message is this...Cold is in northern Canada now...the coldest air is going to leave quickly due to the Aleutians low and head over the pole to Siberia...and then very gradually return after mid-month into NA. Now, I am not making the claim that(when it returns) the cold comes into the East as the 500 pattern could change by then - not getting in a foxhole with a week 3 500 forecast from any model. LOL. Assuming the Weeklies are correct, the cold should feed into an eastern trough. But memories of the November head fakes temper my expectations just enough, and that is not without minor model support. The past two runs of the CFSv2 actually place a ridge(WAR) in the East after the 10th, but that model is swinging wildly. 0z was completely opposite for it. Likely the CFSv2 is handling the MJO differently(maybe incorrectly). Again, there are some big differences in the MJO between American and Euro modeling. We essentially need the 500 pattern which will be in place around Jan 5th to hold until the cold from Canada can reload the eastern trough mid-month. I do think we need to watch any cold front that manages to form as the last two snows have been been along those fronts.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Found it Holston....Watch the cold just get lifted out of Canada by the Bering Sea cyclones. Also, watch a bit of cold slide down through eastern Canada. Just click on "FRD replied to topic." That might hold us over until Canada can become more favorable from a temp stand point later in Jan.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Are you able to do a gif of the Euro operational of just 850 temps (no anomalies) from the same pole view. That would really show what is happening over western/central Canada.
  19. Carvers Gap
    What we need is what the Euro op is advertising is that we can get just enough feed in eastern Canada that sneaks into the eastern trough - essentially gets pinched off(yeah, I know! LOL) as the cold air evacuates. Would give us enough cold for storms until maybe Canada is re-seeded mid to late month. One positive note is that the NCEP MJO models "appear" to be moving to the colder Euro MJO. The EMON yesterday goes into 2 and then rotates back through the colder areas of the COD and back towards colder phase - much different than the GEFS. So, for me I am riding with the EPS almost completely in the LR. The GEFS/GFS has really struggled of late.
  20. Carvers Gap
    One thing I am also noticing is that the strong cyclones over the Bering Sea/Aleutians are acting like a pump which turns counter clockwise and just evacuates the cold from central and western Canada back into Siberia during the next week. So, we are left with marginally cold air in the SE of Pacific origins in order to get the job done. That can happen, but just makes the job that much tougher. And admittedly, some great snow patterns have occurred when cold sources were marginal.
  21. Carvers Gap
    That said, there are a couple of windows for storms, but the track is going to have to be perfect. See one window around the 8th and another about 5-6 days later.
  22. Carvers Gap
    One thing I am noticing at 12z...the cold air source is very lacking. Growing concern. Pattern at 500 is as advertised and even forecast to occur just a few days earlier than what was modeled just a few days ago - just very little cold air in Canada to pull from. The 12z EPS actually has the cold in Canada rotating back to Siberia over the next several days. Source for cold is the Pacific on modeling at 12z. I think by later this month that improves, but waiting on a pattern is an all to familiar practice and risks losing the 500 pattern by the time the cold air gets here. Looks like a reload on the EPS is modeled to BEGIN mid-month for Canada. Unless something major changes, think we are waiting until after the 20th for enough cold without having to thread the needle. It can still snow with this block, but it is going to be finesse stuff. Don't think we see a truly cold North American pattern until later this month at best - all of the cold is bottled up in Siberia and barely moving by the end of the EPS run which is Jan 16th. Again, good pattern...cold air severely lacking.
  23. Carvers Gap
    46 day snow mean. Notice how far south it has snow. That tells us there is some decent cold embedded in that run. Looks like sliders, hybrid, and inland Miller As for that run as evidenced by the snow map.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies have a that look(above) until they break during the second week of February and stick the trough back West. We take - if real.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Euro Weeklies from Jan 9 - Feb 9 are normal for surface temps(minor miracle considering the warm bias of the Weeklies) and the 30 day 500 pattern for the same time frame looks like this:
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