Carvers Gap

Basically, the NAO and Atlantic blocking as well as the AO will have to spend February fighting the MJO if this morning's plots are correct. This is going to be a SE ridge fighting a block for the next three weeks or so...and that might get pretty wild as wavelengths change. Getting a good look at that battle in modeling later this week. It is almost like a standing wave SER is locked against very cold air moving east past the Apps. Going to make it very difficult to find the boundary and then model the speed as the boundary gets pushed eastward once it hits the Plateau(if at all).

MJO looks like hot garbage this morning. Euro has the best solution which moves to COD and back towards 6. GFS stalls in 7. I am very suspicious of cold air that can hold on for very long given that set-up. It does look like the NAO is going to try to hold on despite a brief retrograde. The CHI maps still say phase1-2 of the MJO may occur....so I almost feel like the plot and the actual modeled look are a bit out of sync.

Morning disco out of Memphis... With the front stationary the situation doesn`t change much for Wednesday with the notable exception of the cold air behind the front. Light overrunning across this front could bring a wintry mix across mainly northern sections of the Mid-South Tuesday night through Thursday night. By Wednesday night into Thursday the stationary front becomes a cold front and starts pushing south through the area. The best chance for wintry precipitation appears to be Wednesday night into Thursday when a more significant upper level disturbance moves through the area. This could result in advisory level icing to NE AR, the MO Bootheel and portions of northern TN. There could be some freezing rain into the Memphis metro area by early Thursday. The problem is there is still some disagreement with the models. While the Euro is still warmer which means rain for Memphis the GFS is still colder and means ice for Memphis. The CMC is still siding with the GFS, just slightly warmer. Stuck to the middle ground here with this forecast. Further south in north MS we could see thunderstorms. There is elevated instability but at this time nothing severe is expected. Now by Thursday afternoon into the evening this front moves out of the area. By Friday we are expecting dry weather which should continue into Saturday. The bad news is because this was a cold front temperatures will be very cold. High temperatures during this timeframe will be into the 20s and 30s with low temperatures into upper teens to mid 20`s. With winds elevated wind chills will come into play with the possibility of single digit wind chills. Now for Sunday and Monday the next disturbance approaches the area. Cold temperatures will be in place and we could get another shot at wintry precipitation. It is too far out to pinpoint any exact details or impacts this might bring but it is worth the mention.

6z GEFS and 0z CMC are again showing a long term overrunning event. The 0z Euro is not. The temps on the 6z GFS for late next weekend for western TN are nearly 50 degrees BN(departures from normal) and around 10-17 below zero. Honestly, we probably need to be pulling for the Euro to be right...just compared to latest the GFS and CMC runs. The 6z GFS is brutally cold and the 0z CMC has an ice storm. With this set-up(as long as the severe cold is near us), there should be a period of significant winter weather in the Ohio Valley and/or middle/west forum areas...and then that boundary likely pushing eastward. I don't think that is set in stone, by IF the Euro comes on board....would make an already strong signal even stronger.

Looks like the 18z GFS and 12z Euro have indeed reversed rolls for next weekend. Well, at least both now correlate their MJO looks.

I think two pieces are on the playing field which is giving models fits 1. -NAO 2. Very cold air in southern Canada and northern tier of the lower 48 Just going to have to roll with pattern recognition. Storm tracks should be suppressed and the NAO should force the cold east either in pieces or one lump sum payment. If the Euro is changing that much now, there may still be changes afoot - in either direction to the good or bad regarding wintery precip.

By 162, the 12z Euro is sporting a trough over the eastern US.

There is very nearly a storm next Saturday with the phase just missing. BIG change.

That is almost a "cave" by the Euro for next Thurs-Sat for this subform area. The run-to-run temps are 20-30 degrees colder than 0z for Saturday.

The 12z Euro has taken a step towards the GFS. Compared to yesterday(for next weekend), much cooler. The run-to-run map for next Friday is much cooler. Not wintery yet, but one more step and it might be.

12z CMC is definitely less cold for next weekend. Thing is...it presses the ice/snow line much further south for Weds/Thurs. Moved it from the Ohio River to almost Corbin. Seems like the trend is to press that cold a bit more at 12z(and has been for several runs). Starting to agree with a comment that Bob Chill made in the MA...deep cold and monster SERs are not verifying in modeling this winter.

Had about an 1" of snow here.

Going to give Larry Cosgrove some credit on this before hand...He really likes the time frame just before and around Valentine's Day. He has done well this year. Should just be able to sign-up for his newsletter. I follow him on FB. His newsletter from last night was really good. Just looking at the 0z EPS, he might be on to something. Looks like the next legit window for eastern areas of the subform. He also thinks this pattern may push into March as well.

As BNA notes, highly doubt modeling has this boundary "right" at this point. That needs to be said often. Looks like we have phase 7(maybe pushing to phase 8). To me that means cold pushes, the ridge fights, and this forum area is in that battle zone. If you want winter storms, that is where you want to be. Early idea, again, would be to favor western areas, and then things push east. It is also important to remember how tough a time models have with modeling cold air. Sometimes it has a tendency to sneak further than what is modeled. And sometimes it is slower than modeled, but still gets there.

I am really liking western areas of the forum for winter weather this week and into the weekend. I know these past few winters have been hot garbage out there and discussion has been minimal for there, but this may well be a really good pattern there. I think the cold presses eastward over time, but west TN gets first dibs with this - I think. Reminds me of some of these patterns during the 70s. The temp gradient across TN next week may be something to behold.

I continue to lean towards the GFS in the medium and LR. The Euro does well once it gets past the time time frame where it plays in the West. All modeling lost last night's system for about 36 hours if I remember correctly. Just have to roll with pattern recognition. This "should" be a very wintery pattern if the cold presses east to the Apps. It makes sense for cold to bank up against the Plateau or the west slops of the Apps. That is kind of an old school pattern modeled on the GFS and CMC to some extent. Again, I think we see the first bout of winter in west TN and then the gradient pushes slowly eastward. Several systems likely ride this boundary. I could easily be wrong, but that is my current thinking. The 6z GFS is really a perfect run in terms of set-up.

Sleet and snow here.

For sure. Agree. It has been interesting to see multiple models produce crazy runs at various times. Wonder what it would have been like during those great winters of the past to see the pattern on computer models well in advance?

Welcome aboard...pretty average poster at best(and maybe a tad on the ugly side), but we will take you since you have more memory.

Worth noting that the 12z Candian ensemble has shown a noticeable uptick for the entire forum area regarding snow accumulations for the entire run. Not used to seeing it so robust. Some of you might be wondering about maps. It is not a tease. Been out of memory for about two years. Seriously been contemplating getting a new account here just so I can have more map space! LOL...kidding, not kidding. CG2 might be in my future.

Re: 12z Euro. Anyway, fairly substantial changes in temps beginning Wednesday and really deviates from its 0z run by Fri/Sat next week. Tells me the Euro "might" be playing catchup. The run-to-run temp changes (later in the run) over the East are more drastic than what I posted above. About it. Good luck to everyone tonight. Will give the ensemble a look later and see if the EPS has any changes for midweek.

The 12z Euro is nearly 30 degrees colder over middle TN next weekend.

Major change at 174 as the 12z Euro pushes the front through. Much colder run at this time frame.

Light mix is showing up next Saturday over the Plateau at 168.