Carvers Gap

I like my map better. 240 with Kuchera...

Sorry, should have led with this...Anything interesting on the 12z Euro today?

Not sure if the snow or the cold after the snow is more impressive. My house pipes just shivered.

If the EPO ever cranks and Alaska's cold is dislodged..... Low tonight in Fairbanks is -40F with wind chill advisories of -60F.

Raining here in Kingsport. LOL - no lie. Upslope events are not our thing here.

Could easily happen. These patterns with huge temp swings tend to cause huge fluctuations. Seems like this winter all we need is a 3-4 day cold shot to be in business. Looks like a strong amplification this weekend, and maybe another mid-month. If that pans out, we may all be ready for spring. LOL!

There are several nice members, but that is just insane. LOL.

Really, the setup verbatim is not whether it will snow but where it will snow due to the cold air being modeled. Long way to go, but it is pretty rare to see that type of pattern.

12z EPS has the storm next Sunday.

The 12z EPS is backing up the operational out to 168. Where it once had a weak frontal passage on the 5th, it now has a massive shot of cold air which drives SE of this subform area with much BN heights over the OH Valley.

There are multiple snow events inside of d10 ranging from backside snow, to clippers, to full on winter storms. Not saying any or all of this verifies...just reporting what is on modeling.

The 12z GEFS mean and GEPS means are bonkers. The GEPS has 2"+ mean for all of TN and into norther MS and AL. GEFS isn't far from that. EPS is roiling now. Let's see if we can hold onto that signal. Could be a blip, but wow...what a blip if so.

The 12z Euro for the next 10 days...that is insane. Kuchera. Smokies w/ nearly 40."

Seriously, Wow. The CMC was nuts and so was the GFS. That CMC look at 240...after it had already brought snow with with the earlier storm. Looks like modeling is trending slightly further south with the freezing line. Good sign.

Just checking in to make sure everyone is doing well after that snoozer of a 12z suite.....

I know we are looking at M/T stuff, but next weekend is not without promise. Timing is a bit different on each, but both the Euro and GFS(old and new) show something along the front as it sags through our area. The EPS has finally seen the light, and the 6z EPS pushes a strong cold front through just after the 6th. I would also suspect we have a legit shot a clipper with this cold and then maybe a WAA system as it departs. Operational models are definitely colder than the ensembles of each model overnight. Makes me think the ensembles are playing catch-up. The ensembles seem to have been very slow to adjust to the actual pattern. Some fun facts, the MUO is gaining amplitude in phase 6 which is normally very warm. If we get snow in phase 6, enjoy that! Doesn't happen often. One would think that the wave in 6 is going to propagate to the dateline and get us to phase 8. The CHI map yesterday shows that and then has precip over Eastern Africa which would imply phase 1-2 of the MJO. So, I would suspect modeling and MJO charts to at least "try" to get the MJO in colder phases. Honestly, as long as that block is over Greenland modeling is likely to struggle. As wavelengths shorten(due to spring approaching at this latitude in 4-5 weeks...think it will be a bit late), modeling is going to struggle with that as well, especially the EPS(shoulder season issues). Somebody remind me, does the NAO have a great impact early, mid, or late season in terms of cold/snow?

0z GFS easily has the coldest air mass of the season after 150. West TN gets some digital snow on that run as well. Low single digits around 200.

Think we are going to see cutters periodically drive the cold boundary eastward(which will be fought by the SER). How far SE that boundary gets driven will determine winter wx vs rain. The Euro looks like it is dealing with a lot of feedback issues around d10.

The 12z Euro later in its run(though cold in the Ohio Valley), is playing the "tuck rule" game where it tucks a trough under a big EPO. Very realistic probability and one way the pattern could go wrong. That has occurred during the past 3-4 winters. That said, the NAO is a new feature on the map this year, and may not allow that trough to have staying power under the EPO ridge this time. Have a feeling that gets forced out.

12z GEPS is the best case scenario with the EPS the worst case at it has a very dubious look with the cold bottled up in the Southwest. That can happen, but it is usually in error and is out of step with its own MJO with that look. Will be interesting to see corrections as we move forward. Right now, I think areas of NW TN and SW KY would be ripe for snow after the 5th, but really that is a long way out right now. Anything could happen with that much cold around and also with a SER. Lots of variables.

The 12z Euro is pretty much at the same place. Lots of high pressure over the northern tier of states. GOM begins to attack the cold. Lots of variations with the SER. We DO NOT want an absence of the SER, but just enough of an angle to send precip into the cold. Right now have to think the NW shield of those waves will be cold. Again, nothing set in stone. This could trend to a stronger SER and just be a ton of rain OR modeling could be underestimating the push of cold and we could be in business. We need the cold front around the 5th to blast through and not wash out. Then, we need the boundary to press SE of the area. That hasn't happened a lot this winter, but has generally produced when it has. The NAO seems to slow nearly every system over E TN just enough so that some frozen precip falls in those areas. This upcoming window is something that everyone can watch...Usual areas north of I40 are in better shape due to latitude. However, that is some crazy cold air in the front range of the Rockies. If any of that breaks loose and heads East...that is a good set-up. I know by this time of year most are fatigued from following system after system...but I am intrigued with this.

Definitely have my eye on the 12z GFS Para(GFS has this as well). They both push the freezing line to our area our just past it. There are 2-3 waves which ride that front. Guessing the GFS is being overly aggressive with the cold. However, in the off chance that those are right, that would be a multi-wave overrunning event. Those happen, but has been a long time. Time frame is just after the 5th which is right around the much discussed trough amplification.

Of note the EMON MJO looks really, really good. Think some of these colder solutions on various runs is due to the MJO flirting with very cold phases for February.

What does natural gas look like today and/or energy futures? I never look at them, but if those start going up....

Euro Weeklies say winter is not over. Initial cold push around the 5th. About 6 days later the trough returns and slams the door on spring. As Boone notes, if the Euro is holding back a bit in the West, the entire trough could come east around the 5th and settles into a full latitude trough. Nice look. Let's reel it in. Basically the message is more cold than warm, but some warm still embedded after the 5th. Implies a late spring.