Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Some are really going to like this run.
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Looks at 90 to be slightly (very slightly) north and east of 6z...could just be a precip shield difference vs change in the vort.
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12z ICON has changed to a southern pass and slightly inland runner.
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Out to 69, the 500 vort maps seem to have the storm digging slightly more to the west. We will see where this goes. If true, might give it slightly more room to come inland.
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12z GFS is rolling.
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We need this to really dig or this is going to easily be a Carolina special. I remember some storms like this back in either the late 90s or early 2000s where the snow line stopped right at the top of the Apps. I had to go to Carvers Gap to see snow!!! LOL.
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I just don't see an inland runner that gets inside of Hatteras, maybe e26 is closest which looks similar to the one off Hatteras by WxBell. The operational "I think" is on the far western side of its own suite. But again, the operational could be catching the trend first, and that wouldn't surprise me.
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So the real question is whether the 6z GFS, which is on the far west side of its own suite, is on to something in terms of a trend? I definitely like where the Euro was heading at 6z. All eyes to 12z. It is quite plausible that the operationals are leading the way on this. My only concern with the GFS is that it got a bit too "wound up" during the last two systems. It overdid precip badly in NE TN. The one positive is that it was about 2-3 runs ahead of the Euro in identifying trends 2-3 days out even if it was too wound up.
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No Miller As on the 6z GEFS that I can see. Unfortunately, the SLP placement inside Hatteras is not there nor is the timing. I can't find a single MSLP member that tracks inland or moves as slow as the operational. Now that said, when the 6z Euro ended its run at 90 on WxBell, it was digging out West in the same way the GFS did at 6z. Second image is the slp placement on the GFS. The first image is the GEFS hour which has the closes cluster to the coast. The rest are pretty far away from the coast. Now, E TN can still get snow without the 6z GFS low placement. That particular solution doesn't have support yet. We really need this to dig to the west if we want a Miller A. That said, a system dropping through TN and building a slp along the coast would give SE areas an opportunity as well.
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While the 6z GFS is a great run, it has absolutely zero support from GEFS mslp low placement. Let's see if it is on to a trend. I would think if it was trending NW, that at least a few members would represent that operational run. Fun run though!
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Now, take the northwest jog of the last storm and apply it to this one. IF(and it is a big IF) the 6z GFS is correct, a 987mb slp west of Hatteras is going to throw back more moisture than was presented.
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The 6z GFS was an inland runner, Miller A. It actually would hammer most of E TN. Not sure it has support from other modeling, but wow!
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Oddly, we get a ridge in that area during La Nina's, but just not often in the Aleutians at that strength. When I went back and researched good winter patterns for here, there is often one super close to where that one was if I remember correctly - just not in that spot(a bit northwest of normal). I actually think the really strong -NAO blocked the cold from coming eastward. The configuration of the double block was a problem. Normally a double block is money. The NAO is a much better signal for us during the second half of winter. That strength of that Aleutian high was what was unusual. Thankfully, it is gone for the time being. Many great winters often had very warm Decembers. Some even had that same Aleutian high. This La Nina is now behaving properly. Cold came before the mid-point of winter. Extremes have been seen both in temp, but also severe. Oddly, the winter weather pattern I dread to see ever return is that of 1989-90. Great start, but the outdoor pools at UT were open maybe in February of '90. That is the pattern we want no part of.... And really, within 6 weeks it is game over for most of us anyway. LOL. It will be spring!!!!
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18z GEFS snow mean:
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Yep. Crap. Good catch. The rest of the maps are through the 10th. That one hasn't updated yet!
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The 46d Euro Weeklies Control run presented without comment:
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Yeah, this could get wild.
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Great question for sure. Not sure what causes this combo, but these are characteristic which I saw in brutally cold/snow winters for our region: Alaskan block and/or EPO ridge is found in pretty much every big pattern. Oddly, BN heights over Greenland are common in about half of the patterns I looked at. Though to get a Kocin storm, a Greenland block is a common factor. BN heights east of HI Ridge in the western Atlantic SSW about 2-3 weeks prior to a major cold outbreak. The strat warmed during mid December of 2021 Weak La Nina's are often money here. The MJO can be over-ridden......especially in a pattern like this. Though the Euro Weeklies move the trough westward towards the end of the month, temps here are still normal or BN.
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The thing is about La Nina winters....when they end, they end very quickly. But as Jeff noted, we are not there yet.
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The 18z GFS looks great. Chattanooga folks might like that run!
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Nope. The IO is firing. It will propagate into 6 almost definitely. The better question....Can we keep it cold even if the MJO rotates through 4-6. I "think" that happened in maybe 96 or one of those 90s cold winters. Also, if things are actually moving along in MJO country, it may not actually stall. Just would end-up with a two week thaw. My hunch is we hold this pattern until early Feb, rest of Feb is warm, then we break back cold in early March. Just a guess.
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That is one cold run of the 12z EPS. When one sees -10F BN at the end of a run for northern portions of the forum region, that is very cold. Wished the Weeklies would have been derived from that newer run. If that verifies, a potentially good two weeks of tracking is in store...bout all we can ask for.
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The 12z is not so much a different run at higher liatitudes. It just creates an Alaskan block instead of an Aleutian high straight from the gates of....LOL.
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Agree. Just have to keep an eye on it. What I have noticed is that it will spit-out one of those off runs. Either they get more frequent or totally disappear for a week or so. It did something similar for the 4-5 days forecast right before Christmas. Maybe a week or two prior to that window, the GFS had several runs which looked like we might steal a snowstorm. Instead, the actual result was just a continuation of the warm pattern for about ten more days. However, those few Dec cooler suites were likely the opening shot in it eventually sniffing out a pattern change about a week and a half later on Jan 3rd. ....What the 6z ain't, the 12z is. LOL.
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12z GFS appears to have found its stormy pattern again. Three minor/moderat events to watch beginning this weekend.
