Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Euro operational appears supported by the EPS. -
Probably closer to 95-96, because it is driven by snow cover. 85 was the PV just settling in over NE TN. I will have to look closer...that could be happening but seems more like bitterly cold air over OH that just banks up over a snowpack west of the Apps. That is probably splitting hairs, because it is really cold either way in terms of what is being modeled. Still a long ways to go, but was interesting. Modeling for several days has shown pipe cracking cold over the Lower 48 though.
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Yeah, something was/is off. And honestly, I am not sure things aren't still wonky. It is like we had this great pattern nailed, it disappeared for 48 hours, and now it is back. I have speculated a bite with others, but not sure why. Thing is...it may not be fixed yet. One eye over my shoulder for sure right now........
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Re: 12z Euro You asked...LOL. There are temp anomalies (departures not actual temps) of 35-5F BN just after 200 rolling across the entire forum area. Snow is on the ground so that is why. Temps in the NE valleys are 10-20 degrees below zero for actual temps. That is WAY out there...would have to see it to believe it.
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Yeah, I have to be honest(I know a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush), but I am looking at that Wednesday to Sunday event more than I probably should. LOL!!!
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It is almost embarrassing to state how many degrees below normal we would be if it snows...so, I won't. So let's just say "really cold."
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No idea if this verifies, but that is good to see the para-GFS and Euro at 12z with similar looks at 12z. Snow accumulation maps are super similar. Euro is a hair east on a global scale. If we get snow, temps are going to be nuts in terms of severity. All of this is speculation, but it is on the table as of now.
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Portions of Knox Co are at 11" though 222.
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When we consider that the Euro had nothing for several runs....that is a really big jump.
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The 12z Euro has some eerily similar characteristics to the 12z para-gfs multi-day overrunning event.
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I don't know. The SLP pops off Charleston, SC. It has plenty of room to correct northwest. Would likely mean the entire storm spins up and we could have a very potent inland runner. Confluence would be earlier which could really force that thing to go neg tilt. tnweathernut is far better with that stuff than I!
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I think there has been something wrong with modeling for about 48 hours....have seemed way, way to benign given then pattern.
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So, is the 12z GFS wrong or is it wrong(in a good way) - meaning that storm should did a bit more and trend well west of even the current modeling?
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NA view 500 sort map at 144 (animate it) is like a conveyor on the Euro. No idea if it goes to the para-gfs multi-day over-running event, but the set-up is almost there.
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Request for the entire run here. Pivotal goes to 240...can you get more?
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You may still get to yet! LOL. I am not ruling out any scenario. Mine need washing as well. Just got it done last weekend, and now have salt all over them again.
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The 12z para-GFS is just going nuts. Frame that run. Crazy. Not saying that verifies...but wild, wild multi-day over-running event. Overall accumulation map is pretty will as well...think it doesn't go past 240 or it would be more due to the storm just after 240.
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So now we wait to see if US modeling has support. The para-GFS looks like it is cooking up yet another winter storm just inside of d10. It may be toying with a Euro-lite version from the other day. The 12z CMC is much lighter with its qpf. So there are two total plausible runs. One shows how to whiff and one shows how to score. I do like that the GFS seems to have had the hotter hand of late - especially the para.
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The 12z regular GFS is bringing temps to -16 to -17F along the TN/KY border in middle TN late next weekend. Obviously, that is WAY out there but if we get snow pack and the cold lurking in the eastern Plains, that is possible.
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12z US modeling has just changed. We will see if they get support from other modeling....Forecasters will be very conservative until these runs get support.
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The 12z Para-GFS already has a foot over middle TN at 200 with the event still ongoing.
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To balance out the effort, the 12z CMC is basically the opposite of US modeling right now. The 12z GFS, though, is about to bring the final hammer with the cold.
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I may be cashing in the para-GFS for the season...
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Man, the para-gfs is pretty much a multi-day overruning event. Light right now, but the para and regular GFS at 12z are right where we want the boundary. Are they right? No idea, but will gladly take the trend.
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Good to see the CMC working back. Tough for me to tell if the usual biases are in play right now or if US modeling has rediscovered the pattern from a few days ago...because this is pretty much what modeling had the other day with multiple events.
