Carvers Gap

The trend Monday into Tuesday is a drastic reduction in temps in the eastern valley. There are places in E TN and NE TN which are 10-15 degrees colder. The CMC and Euro are now showing signs that the front may catch the precip in the eastern valley. Really need to watch this. There is a real possibility that the cold is being under modeled in the eastern valley.

The 18z RGEM is tracking an areas of weak slp from the Panhandle of FL through the Carolina Piedmont with seemingly little energy transfer. Back side of the slp switches to light snow in ETN. It is on the eastern envelope of storm tracks not implausible. The EPS at 12z moved several of its slp member tracks into the same vicinity as the RGEM.

I was thinking that as much as we like to give modeling a hard time(me included), they have been remarkably steady for this. Obviously, I am hoping for a shift for MBY....but they aren't moving much. The CMC is the first hiccup which I have seen.

For eastern folks, I do have at least give mild attention to this 12z CMC look for Tuesday. The slp(as is) is likely too weak. However, if that strengthens even a little...that is not benign for the eastern valley IMHO. That is different from what we have seen recently. Modeling has trending towards this inland runner during the past few runs. The para has a similar look but runs a shadow up through the eastern valley which is no good. If the CMC consolidates, that is good. Might just be a hiccup, but the RGEM was pretty much there as well at 84.

Might not hurt to add Middle/West TN to the thread title or tags so when we go back and search(in future years), it will be easier to find....

The 12z CMC/RGEM is developing a low which takes the low road Tuesday. Modeling seems to be split between sending some energy up the west slopes of the Apps and then developing a lee side low or hybrid Miller A OR just going with a Miller A. Some fairly different solutions out there right now regarding Tuesday. ICON/CMC camp vs GFS.

Nope. We just follow each threat. Been middle and west for several days. Totally fine with that BTW.

Do we need a new storm thread for the next system or just want to rename the other thread as some sort of multi-day overrunning thread? It doesn't matter to me as I have no horse in the race...but what is being modeled is significant. Maybe wait until 12z and then work it.

Thanks, man, for keeping our middle and west TN folks in mind. I know we have been focused on the eastern sub-forum areas this winter, but glad we can get the folks out in those areas (who have waited patiently...Memphis has waited seemingly forever) involved in our winter discussions.

Some fairly significant trends with the MJO today. The EURO is now forecast to hustle out of 7 and even duck into 8 for a couple of days. The GFS is now forecast to hustle out of 7(big trend last it was not even getting out of 7 a few days ago...and looping back into 6 if memory serves me correctly), into the COD, and then back to warm phases. The good news is the MJO is forecast to get out of 7. Now, both head towards warmer phases at some point...but check the EMON (posted it above) as one potential that might occur. I suspect we are about to see some model discontinuity coming up. Often, when we see this push by the Euro...we see changes just after d5. Let's see its next couple of runs. That, at the very least, shows a trough in the East for 3-4 days. With the cold in the pattern right now, 3-4 days of a trough in the east would be nice.

Latest EMON is out for the MJO....well, isn't that interesting. Makes a beeline out of 7 into the COD, makes a move to 6, and then back to background cold phase COD. Ya'll, I don't think winter is over yet in eastern areas. It might be, but I think we have a system or two yet to track. Climo definitely begins to work against some with each passing week after this week...but this year just has the feel that this is now actually winter. We will see. And not the pattern hasn't been pushed back...it is just not centered over E TN. This is a middle and west TN pattern and a doozy at that. It is one that may well be remembered for some time in the western areas of our subforum.

Just looking at the snowmegeddon snow axis for west TN, it has shifted into that SE region....there is definitely a press going on there.

Euro is east with most of its features next week. We need to keep an eye on these trends. Sullivan may have some issues Monday if 12z is correct...nothing like out west but a mixed bag.

The 6z GFS had a light mix/icing event Tuesday re: NE TN. And for the record, the multi-day overrunning event is likely going to verify for this subforum - just not the NE corner...yet. Let’s see the trend on modeling for next week before pronouncing E TN out of the picture. I am not even sure I want any part of an ice storm. That said, the boundary has slowly pressed eastward for Tuesday. This is how much modeling has missed the current system regarding SE positioning...I am 4 miles from the latest ice advisory area.

Tuesday set-up is not good - and I don't mean rain.

Thing is...the Para-GFS, UKMET, and CMC are even further SE with the cold boundary with the Euro still trending that way. This might be a case where the cold makes it to the Apps on Tuesday and banks right up against it. With a 1046 in that position, the cold would run down the spine of the Apps into the eastern valley unit it gets moved out of the way. IF, IF that looks is legit....eastern valley could be much colder if the precip gets out in front of the low. Again, I think this boundary keeps pushing eastward to at least the Apps before the SER beats it back.

The other thing is that it is very likely that more precip overruns that boundary earlier. If that happens, it would quite likely trap the cold in the valley from TYS to SW VA. It would scour over time, but that is ZR city right there for the eastern valley and way worse for middle TN.

Thing is the HP might get moved...but that is some really cold air that is going to likely get trapped north of I-40 if that is legit. That is nasty.

It is way more extreme than that. Let me see if I can grab a map and post it under CG2.

Wow. I am not sure the cold will get out of the way quickly enough with that. That is a bananan1046 high over an incoming storm. That is winter storm city there.

It moved 700 miles?

That is a significant move eastward of the boundary. In NE TN temps are almost 20F+ colder than the previous run...

12z Euro run has pushed the gradient further eastward on Tuesday through 123.

Pivotal looks good through 144. Looks like the entire state has 2+"...maybe almost the entire forum area.

Para-GFS, CMC, and UKMET at 12z all have something frozen in the eastern valley on Tuesday. GFS cuts further west.