Carvers Gap

Really enjoy reading this thread. Great to see so many folks in our middle and western areas getting some winter! Stay warm and stay safe. Keep sharing those pics.

From MRX's Hazardous Wx Outlook just so folks don't thing we are cooking up something unsubstantiated in regards to model support. It could trend better or it could trend worse, but I feel like this is a good description.... An intense storm system will affect the region Wednesday night and Thursday. Strong southerly winds will affect the East Tennessee mountains and foothills Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Precipitation could start as a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain Wednesday night into early Thursday morning across parts of the Plateau, northern Tennessee Valley, and southwest Virginia before changing to all rain. Periods of heavy rainfall Thursday may cause some localized flooding. Rain will change to light snow Thursday night with light accumulations possible.

The 18z GEFS mean is roughly 2-6" of snow from SE TN to NE TN and increasing as you go NE. Just have to run accumulations through Saturday in order to pick-up wrap around snow as well.

Man...the 18z RGEM ice total. Man.

I think the NAM is just amped....only model showing that up to this point. As for the 18z RGEM and the 1" of ice for MBY....

Thanks. That is a really good look. Man...don't know whether to trust this suite of models or not, but that is three straight model suite(0z, 6z, and 12z) which have trended towards that solution. My guess is that it would trend back NW at some point. That said, if it trends one more time...money. Two more times...Atlanta.

I thought the same thing. Thing is, the 12a Euro looks like the 12z GFS which looks like the 12z CMC which looks a lot like the 12z RGEM. The whole suite is a giant set-up!!!! LOL.

What is that Kentucky? Also, did the thermals bust or did it just speed up?

Yep. And the comparison loop(just too big to load...Holston???) of the surface pressure locations is much less warm nose and has a tendency to slide and then turn up the coast in the coastal plain. Really jumps on that first batch of precip and gets it out in front of the low.

Let me dig out my CG2 account...will give you all some still shots.

Euro is coming in HOT! (well cold!)

Wow. That is madness. Be sure to post some pics!

12 RGEM is again a messy onset but more so for NE TN this run with .43 ZR in Sullivan Thursday morning. Looks like the RGEM is seeing the warm nose a bit better this run. Powell was asking about the difference. Ya'll check out the temps Wednesday AM over E TN without snow. I had to look twice. Those temps are going to set the stage for really cold rain or a mess Thursday night in eastern sections.

Regarding Weds night/TR the 6z GFS is a total mess...even messier than 0z. RGEM is right there with it. Agree with John on believability stuff. That said, cold bleeding into the eastern valley and getting trapped is a legit option. Whether it happens, anyone's guess at this point. However, the 0z and 6z suites have some significant icing and snow for parts of E TN which did not for yesterday's model runs. Again, the 6z GFS doubled down on its 0z run. Worth a mention...may or may not happen, but a big change. We will see where it goes.

NE TN , SE KY, and SW VA folks might want to get a look at the 0z CMC, 0z RGEM, 0z GFS, and 0z Euro(trend on that one). Worth a look. Won’t add more unless the trend holds - might be a hiccup. 0z RGEM was snow for most of E TN. Colder.

On WxUnderground, I am seeing stations at or below freezing on the north and northwest sides of Knoxville.

My biggest snow this winter was actually from a lee side low. Always the chance for a Miller A....no way to know this far out of course.

A generational event.

Just looking at the EPS this afternoon...looks like the pattern will repeat one more time. NAO does re-fire d10-15. Cold builds out West...bet it slides east as the GEFS extended had last night for the first week of March(late in that first week). This has been the base pattern all winter. Actually, November had the same pattern but climatology fought the cold coming SE. Think Cosgrove is on the right track there.

Reposting as I failed earlier to put a time stamp on this comment.... Something to keep an eye on for NE TN and SW VA folks...the 12z Euro is implying that there could be a mix at TRI and snow/sleet in SW VA before the cold is scoured out. edit: Thursday morning!

One other thing to watch in the LR, the Euro and GFS again both set a really nice boundary just after d8. To me that is a little bit early. However, maybe we get one more system to run an east/west boundary prior to a brief warm-up to end the month and more winter later during the first week of March. Seems like two years ago, we hit 80 during February here at TRI. LOL.

Just for posterity, 41 here in Kingsport. What a temp gradient!

They are running out of deep colors of blue/purple for ice! Memphis is close to a huge run there.

For whatever reason, it switches to the most complete run instead of the run in progress. Hiccup in the programming or design. Gets me ALL the time. WxBell has a similar glitch where it will switch to off-run modeling for the Euro when I toggle between it(0z or 12z) and another model. Drives me crazy!

As a heads-up, those are 6z. Pivotal gets me all of the time when it switches runs.