Jump to content

Carvers Gap

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    17,215

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the next system to keep an eye on is Jan 7. Long way off...could cut or could slide past. Have to think frozen is plausible for someone in the forum area.
  2. Carvers Gap
    One caveat.....the GFS, which sometimes finds a kernel of corn, has an ideal look at 500. The operational at both 0z and 12z builds heights in the western Atlantic which connect to the PAC ridge. That in turn traps very cold air and forces it southward. You know my feelings about sharing a foxhole with that model, but it has shown it twice now in the LR. That looks a lot like some great cold patterns. I was going to put ‘85-‘85 in that big post yesterday. It just didn’t fit what I was seeing in LR modeling. The GFS is rightly or wrongly flirting with that look. Even with that look, highly unlikely that we see those types of historical temps. Just commenting on the delivery system and/or mechanism which allowed for that cold pattern to occur. It would be worth noting that Dec ‘84 was incredibly warm - John has noted that several times. Dec ‘84 was in The analog package from the CPC yesterday.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Transition is well underway. Warm today and tomorrow until the cold front passes through. Ensembles this morning still look cold. Whether that big ridge out west and AN heights in eastern PAC hold in those same favorable spots(that they are now), anyone’s guess after the 20th. The pattern is retrograding but appears to have slowed and is holding BN heights over Greenland with cyclonic flow around it. That flow in turn sends very cold air into the middle and eastern half of the United States - centered more east. The MJO is now in phase 8 which (for a brief moment) means US modeling was correct. Does it stay there or do one more loop before progressing? No idea. Seems to be crawling in a progressive manner (with loops for good measure). After ~ Jan 20, one would think the retrograding pattern would put the high back in the Aleutians and the trough reposition out West. That is not a slam dunk, but it a plausible solution. If the MJO continues to slowly meander, it could conceivably meander all of the way to 2 OR loop into warm phases - there is that much spread. In the mean time, looks like we have several potential cold shots possible with warmth building as the cold exits....wash, rinse, repeat. Time to enjoy those cold fronts as they are conveniently showing-up at the best time of the year from a climatology standpoint. Holston has it covered this AM...
  4. Carvers Gap
    0z GFS has several winter chances and lots of cold. 0z CMC looks similar. Happy New Year to the best weather forum on the planet!!!
  5. Carvers Gap
    TIMS model doing the work so far...
  6. Carvers Gap
    Jan 7 timeframe still looks like a good window as well. The TN subforum snow map is going to be pretty stout after the happy hour run of the GFS. Two storms so far.
  7. Carvers Gap
    LONG POST.... Here are the last CFSv2 Monthly forecasts for January. For kicks and giggles, here is a composite of two favorite cold outbreaks: Januarys '96(moderate Nina), '15(weak El Nino which had just flipped). I did not include '84 as it is a different setup and is so extreme, though it did have a monster warm December. '84 is part of CPC's analog package again today. Here are also the 5 day maps of all three global ensembles at lunch. THIS IS NOT A FORECAST. This is sandbox mode and just exploring the anatomy of a cold pattern and looking to see if the modeled LR patterns have some of these characteristics. @John1122 will like this. The NAO is positive in that composite map. There is a high in the GOA and/or in the Bering Sea. There is a little bit of an western Atlantic ridge - centered west. Kind of an interesting composite, but we are seeing elements of both Nina and Nino in modeling. These are 31d composites being compared to 5d composites. I would be surprised if the entire month was like January 15' and 96'. Just seems like we could see the the first half of the month look or evolve to something similar. Again, as stated earlier (several times), not sure where the pattern goes during the second half of the month. Just looking for a window.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Here are those maps....
  9. Carvers Gap
    LOL. It took me a few hours to gain some perspective!!! But seriously, UT football was fun to watch again this year. What a fourth quarter. Two heavy weight offenses(great offensive head coaches) just slugging it out. I felt like I was watching a PlayStation game. 4th and goal from the 14...no problem. This will be remembered as one of the better bowl games. Both teams showed up with the intent to win. And again, I think we finally have a coach in Heupel - calm, smart, crafty, and a bit of a riverboat gambler. As Cowherd noted quite eloquently, UT didn't play a lot of boring football this year.
  10. Carvers Gap
    The 12z EPS has now joined the GEFS and GEPS with a huge EPO ridge in the LR. The actual 12z Euro operational was really cold. The EPS backed it up. Not sure how long modeling can hold this look, but the massive ridge out west is complemented by the massive trough in the East in the mid and long range. One would think that would break down fairly quickly. That said, if that trough can grab part of the PV, it can travel well south with the mechanics of that set-up.
  11. Carvers Gap
    It was a wild game. Kind of gave that one away, but at least we got better. I would rather watch us lose in a shootout than to get drummed 38-14. TN football is kind of fun to watch again.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I mean we could always strike out. But getting some BN temps into the region during January along with normal precip.....we take. Sounds like a great time. Is Big Bald right there near Sam's Gap - sort of north of it on the AT?
  13. Carvers Gap
    You know I think they have to do that sometimes just to give our WRs some rest in the hurry-up. Like giving everyone a breather. Plus, it makes the defense stay honest - edge rushers can't go wide. UT is gonna play fast. When the other team has to start faking injuries because they are out of shape and can't sub....we have a good scheme. Fulmer was a master in OT. I sat through a 7OT? game one time against Arkansas. Got home at like 5AM! LOL. His teams had pounded the rock during regulation. He loved the type of games where it went to OT, because he knew the other team was beaten to a pulp.
  14. Carvers Gap
    I get the deep throws at the end of the fourth quarter. On one of those, the receiver was held or he walks in...that was a badly missed defensive hold. The throw was there. First and goal from the 2 in OT...gotta pound the rock. But give it to Heupel, he calls a game to win it. This TN team couldn't score at all last year. Tillman went from being a ho-hum receiver to having a 1,000 yard season. Hunter left VT after losing his starting job, and had a career year...enough so that he is on NFL draft lists. If Evans plays during the second half of the season at RB, we win easily last night. I know Purdue was missing guys, but we only have like 71 guys on scholarship right now - 71. We were missing our best OL, best RB, and best DB last night. Purdue was missing some guys as well. But Heupel came out in his presser and took responsibility. He owned it. Love that guy. Hate we lost, but this team went from a team which couldn't score at all last year to a team that nearly won a shoot out with like 1,200 yards of offense! LOL.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Note in the threats assessment the risk for hazardous cold in west forum areas is now within the slight risk "cone."
  16. Carvers Gap
    These will change as they are updated. These are not photos but linked to the CPC. The echo what we have been tracking on this sub-forum for a couple of weeks. This is the window.
  17. Carvers Gap
    VAST DIFFERENCES in the MJO this morning. Canadian is good and goes COD which will work as we are in the coldest time of the year. GEFS goes into 8, then 7, and then back to 8. CEFS goes into 8-1. The EPS goes into 8, COD and sort of back to 7. The corrected EPS moves into 6 after mid-month which reflects the look we see on the EPS. My money is on what the GEPS and GEFS are doing at 12z. Very strong trough in the east which slowly retrogrades into the center of the country. The GOA high slowly pushes towards the Aleutians. Does it set an Alaskan block or reset the Aleutian high? Either is plausible. Retrograding patterns are interesting to watch and tough to predict!!! Looks like a cold and wintry pattern through mid-month with warm mixed in for good measure. I will add that if the MJO gets into 8, the Euro fought it every step of the way. OTH, the EURO has a more realistic trajectory of the current MJO plot. So, it kind of got it right by slow walking the MJO, but at times incorrectly reversed it. It also has the most accurate looking MJO plot trajectory right now which looks correct. Does it loop back to 6? It might if the heights in the GOA retrograde there after mid-month. I would suggest the GEPS and GEFS combo right now look the most realistic in their pattern progression and with the retrograding pattern. I tend to believe this gets into colder phases of the MJO, but that is far from settled.
  18. Carvers Gap
    I can't see the precip type map yet, by the 12z CMC has a robust low now in the Piedmont for Jan 3. Good look.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Looks like the 12z GFS wants to go with a couple of light wintery events next week. We will see. For whatever reason, I like the look of the Jan 7 system.
  20. Carvers Gap
    I got 6" of snow on that run. Must be a heckuva SE wind on the run!!! Legit might be a good day to head to Roan Mountain.
  21. Carvers Gap
    During winter, snow often follows closely behind storms here in NE TN. Always amazed when it occurs. As for the LR, not much has changed. Looks like seasonal to BN through the first half of January. So without beating a dead horse, major pattern shift/relaxation still on track for Jan 3. After that, we will see 2-4 cold shots with warm interludes. Spacing and timing will determine our fate regarding winter wx. After mid-January, we will have to see. Kind of two lines of thinking there...the Pacific is favorable and a trough stays in the East or the trough reverts back West. As it is, plenty of cold and snow opportunities from the Rockies to the Apps for the next few weeks(north of I-40). The NWS map today alone should show that winter is far from over. Strong Nina climatology in play right now with the cold arriving during the first half of winter. Would not be surprised to see us break for spring early if Nina persists, though I do think we see one last period of cold/snow before winter finally exits in Feb. Sounds like Cosgrove, but looks likely nonetheless. Now, if Nino takes over with a quick flip...all bets are off on that.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Great looking wave along an strong cold front around 150 on the 0z GFS. That is a feature that easily could be found along that front. Other than that, too tired to comment after that abomination of a forward progress call. See you all tomorrow. Go Vols!
  23. Carvers Gap
    So true...LOL.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Christmas Ale isn't going to ease the burn from that one.
  25. Carvers Gap
    LOL. What a terrible call....well, at least all of the mustard (and water) stayed in the stands. Cause you know somebody was tempted.
×
×
  • Create New...