Carvers Gap

Not to change the subject, but the GFS is much more impactful with the second system...will jump over to the other thread for that.

Additionally, we may be seeing the system experience some "sheer" from the Smokies. If it continues to back west, we get a better system and the sheer is reduced. Right now, the spine of the Smokies is just shredding the moisture transport into the region. One more shift, and I "think" that would improve.

The 12z CMC is going to be a good test. It has a very sharp snow axis gradient on its westward side. If it shifts, we should easily be able to see it.

I think we want a more consolidated system and better phase. Not sure if that happens, but that would overcome the downslope IMO. TYS and TRI really need the slp tracking more west of where it is. I don't think the backing will hurt us, but having a strung out system which is in two parts will cause all sorts of problems not the least of which is getting dry slotted.

Northerly component meaning the axis of snow has shifted more to a "due north" look than sliding to the NE. So, NNE vs just NE if that makes any sense.

The storm itself has a more northerly(vs east) component to it than it has had during the previous two runs on most modeling. In my book, a storm which is backing(and on the coast) is a good thing. Obviously we don't want it backing if it was in the Piedmont. Someone had suggested downscoping might be a factor, and that might be what we are seeing in the Central Valley. Not sure. A really consolidated storm like the NAM is what we need. These sort of strung out solutions where the phases is late or partial don't cut it. I think the trend is for a strengthening storm. Again, very little runway left as this begins tomorrow. Pretty big move west.

Both

Ninja. Was just typing this. Man, modeling is really backing west at 12z. The GFS is much closer to the coast in the NE which tells me this isn't done trending here. The western extent of the snow shield is expanding west on most modeling.

At 0z the snow axis went from SW NC to roughly Va Beach. At 12z it goes from the Plateau to Boston and is a legit winter storm for the NE with accumulations of 1' in the big cities. So the trend is a more expansive system and moving the snow axis NW due to further backing of the system. I have no idea what the end game is on this, but I don't think the RGEM has caught up.

The 12z RGEM is nearly 150 miles west of its 0z run with the westward expanse of its snow shield.

Overall, take some time to look at the snow accumulation trend since 0z. At 0z, Kentucky wasn't even in the game. The storm has trended the entire state of West Virginia to the west at that latitude. They system is not done on that accumulation map above.

Will be interesting to see if the RGEM continues to build on its solution from 6z.

Need to call a lawyer for this storm...I think I have whiplash due to so many reversals of reversals on modeling. LOL.

That is a consolidated SLP on the NAM. If real, that could get a lot stronger. I know what the pressure says on the coast but look at the shape of the storm. It is an expansive, comma shaped winter storm. Let’s see if any other modeling bites.

As John noted the RGEM went from a total whiff at 0z to a more substantial solution at 6z.

0z GEFS snow totals are impressive for the eastern half of the state. Chattanooga has a roughly 4-5" snow mean, TYS is 6-8", TRI is 8-10", Plateau is roughly 7-8", Nashville is 3-4", Memphis is almost 3", northern sections of the GOM states are 1-3", Arkansas is 3-4", and southern KY is 3.5 -8." That is through 324.

Improved run of the Euro at 0z.

Yep, great post and worth a read by everyone.

Don't assume the western areas of the forum are left out of the frozen fun...mostly sleet and zr in addition to the amounts show. Tellico has already highlighted the ZR threat.

Yeah, total mess. Fill in those blank areas in the sub-forum with either sleet or heavy snow.

TYS also has 16" through 252.

TRI has 16" with the Kuchera/WxBell through 252.

Obvious at this point that modeling is struggling to find the Arctic boundary and also the strength of the cold. Still, nice look. BNA got me with the ninja! LOL edit.

0z GFS has some foot totals on the Plateau from multiple events through 222. Pretty much the entire forum area has something. Eastern half gets hammered. We will see if that holds, but the signal for an overrunning event is still apparent on both the 0z GFS and ICON.

Like someone turned a firehose loose on an Arctic boundary.